Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (N5)

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Vicarin
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Mon Aug 13, 2018 5:15 am UTC

BoomFrog, the power and restriction you're going to claim have been pretty damn obvious to me since D2, so I'm not sure what you're worried about.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 13, 2018 5:56 am UTC

By the way Vic. If you'd voted no Lynch like I suggested then you would not have lost wam D2.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 13, 2018 5:57 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:BoomFrog, the power and restriction you're going to claim have been pretty damn obvious to me since D2, so I'm not sure what you're worried about.

how did you know I wasn't something weird like voyeur and Laser guy with the doctor? Or heauy could have been to the doctor?
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Mon Aug 13, 2018 5:59 am UTC

Yep, but as I said, I was asleep at the time. Can't do much about it now.

You've been the person talking about the doctor incessantly, and they haven't respected the restriction that you're going to claim. Not that hard.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby bessie » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:42 am UTC

BoomFrog, Madge left the world’s worst mediator breadcrumb here.

Did you target someone last night or do you decline to state?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby mpolo » Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:54 am UTC

My PM says that the targeted person cannot use any ability and is immune to night kills. I can't target the same person twice in the game. (I am supposed to be interrogating them, and can't come up with an excuse to do it to the same person twice.)

As to cults --
I know that if LaserGuy is the cult leader, the cult stayed at its starting size on N1.
If Sabrar is the cult leader, the cult should be at starting size +1 right now.

Barring the effects of other people's powers.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:19 am UTC

That's helpful. I feel like we would probably have to have some way to be able to detect/prevent recruiting (or have some extra kills available) in order for a cult to be feasible in a game this small. Especially when there's also a pretty strong mafia faction... so I think likely no cult.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby mpolo » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:21 pm UTC

So, the third faction is likely a SK who has been unlucky thus far. (Likely a Forsaken from the flavor.) Or some sort of unusual third faction (something like no-kill, but has to get control of the vote)? That would be hard to root out.

I am going on vacation tomorrow. I should be able to check in once a day, but not likely a lot more than that.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby Madge » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:36 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:@Sabrar, mpolo, BoomFrog, Madge: Do the protective powers that you have/had suggest in any way that they protect against recruitment?


The language just refers to the power as a "doctor", no elaboration.

I confirm boomfrog is a doctor; I also confirm that Boomfrog has another aspect to his power but I don't think it's necessary to reveal yet. The less scum knows the better.

@Boomfrog: should we both just act as vanilla doctors, or should we try to take advantage of the differences?

bessie wrote:BoomFrog, Madge left the world’s worst mediator breadcrumb here.


It was not a bad crumb! It was me saying to BoomFrog, "hey dude, I know your power is called Mediator, just so you know I k now, and I can confirm your restrictions/etc". I wasn't expecting to claim today, and if I'd crumbed I would have done a better job. You surely think more of me than that, right? If I'd started each sentence with a letter from "mediator", BoomFrog might not have seen it, and I wanted BoomFrog to know I knew.

(I knew it was BoomFrog because he wasn't voting)
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:12 pm UTC

bessie wrote:BoomFrog, Madge left the world’s worst mediator breadcrumb here.

Did you target someone last night or do you decline to state?

Sorry, I ment to be explicit but forgot. I decline to state. And yes I have the ter'whatever thingy and I must give it to someone tonight, and apparently it counts as targeting unless Madge is the cult leader and recruited Vic N1 and Bessie N2 because she is afraid of cops. But that theory is inconsistant with the fact Madge asked to be coped N1.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:19 pm UTC

Madge wrote:@Boomfrog: should we both just act as vanilla doctors, or should we try to take advantage of the differences?
Plan B.

bessie wrote:BoomFrog, Madge left the world’s worst mediator breadcrumb here.


It was not a bad crumb! It was me saying to BoomFrog, "hey dude, I know your power is called Mediator, just so you know I k now, and I can confirm your restrictions/etc". I wasn't expecting to claim today, and if I'd crumbed I would have done a better job. You surely think more of me than that, right? If I'd started each sentence with a letter from "mediator", BoomFrog might not have seen it, and I wanted BoomFrog to know I knew.

(I knew it was BoomFrog because he wasn't voting)

Oh honey, I knew you knew my power and would know it was me for the voting thing D2. And yet, I missed the breadcrumb... :shock: We probably shouldn't discuss this more just so we stop giving more hints though.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:25 pm UTC

I've thought about it quite a bit and it simply doesn't make sense for Vicarin to give up if any remaining scum is independent from him (whether sk or cult or any other). At least not that early. He could have waited for more claims and tried to see if he could spin it any possible way. It may even violate the "You cannot play directly against your Primary Win Condition." rule (though I'm not sure that's the best topic for discussion). So I'm guessing there is a third (either from the beginning or through recruit).

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:08 pm UTC

Votals:

Not voting: Everybody

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Deadline is 21:00 UTC, Wednesday, 15th August, just under 48 hours from now. Deadline timer.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:47 pm UTC

Well, I was mainly betting on me being completely screwed if I didn't immediately reveal anyway, so the only case in which I get by is if town has bigger fish to fry. Hence, I wanted to try immediately claiming, because a cult wouldn't have been able to co-ordinate about that, due to there being no daychat. I think people's reactions have been pretty enlightening.

Realistically, I can't do much to town in this situation so I'm not really sure what you all lose out on by just making sure that there isn't a cult about to win the game.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:11 pm UTC

I don't see what you gain by helping us get the cult first. If you are the post member of your faction and don't have strong man you will never get to use your NK again. At best you get roleblocked tonight then lynched tomorrow. Why not say you were roleblocked and try to convince people that you are an insane cop? At least it's possible you could win then.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:15 pm UTC

Because it would come down to my word vs two people's words over whether I got roleblocked or not, so I'm completely toast then?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby bessie » Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:04 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:how did you know I wasn't something weird like voyeur and Laser guy with the doctor? Or heauy could have been to the doctor?
This is an odd thing to ask a rolecop.

Madge, I know what a mediator is, we had one in Secret Santa 2017. I submitted it. You played that game.

Vicarin wrote:Realistically, I can't do much to town in this situation so I'm not really sure what you all lose out on by just making sure that there isn't a cult about to win the game.
Vicarin, do you really want to play another day? The only way you’re going to live is if we have a better lynch target. Why aren’t you trying to build a case on someone for cult leader?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:41 am UTC

I've been trying to get more of an idea of who's resistant to the idea of there being a cult first to get a better idea of who the leader is.

Best guess as to the cult leader would be Madge with her also being a Godfather, explaining her D1 request. This would be followed by her culting BoomFrog N1, but this does require the recruit going after any cops. Also means bessie or Mark is the 3rd cult.

I'm not quite sure what the next most likely scenario is, have to double check all the claimed interactions, there's so goddamn many.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:00 pm UTC

Well, everyone else seems content to just sit around and let time run out...

Vote: Madge

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby Madge » Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:40 pm UTC

@Vicarin: you are really twisting everything to explain me as cult leader. I don't even. Not even a little. I want to see what you flip because if your flavour of scum/indie is 100% aligned with what you said, then I will be flabbergasted

I don't have anything else to say, SO, READS LIST:

VERY naughty: Vicarin

A nice person being naughty: Bessie (i.e. I think she's town but she's pinging me a little)

Nice: Boomfrog, Laserguy (niceness rests solely on bessie)

Suspicious: Sabrar (if we don't win tonight, his BP claim needs to be examined more thoroughly)

Invisible: mpolo. Bessie, far be it from me to tell you who to target, but can you target him solely because I have NFI? (he was claiming miller, wasn't he? maybe don't, actually)

If I missed you then you were even more invisible than mpolo and you should work on that.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby Madge » Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:43 pm UTC

personal aside: i will be spending significantly more time on site (today we drove 50 minutes each way to a crash location), and as I tend to post during the same times that are best for site visits, it's possible that for the next six months i may miss posting all together some RL days, and for fast games I will start hating everything.

other personal aside: WE ARE FINALLY GOING TO GET NBN, which is "fast internet" for Australians. true story: the hotel wifi in Cambodia was downloading my podcasts at 1-3 mb/s. Here, when the internet is being LIGHTNING FAST, I get 200-300kb/s. So I am finally going to be in the early 2010s!! I can't wait.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:24 pm UTC

@Madge: I've been quiet because not much has been happening.
Vote: Vicarin
We need to do it eventually, and now is fine. Also, we should RB Madge just in case she is cult leader.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby bessie » Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:33 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:Best guess as to the cult leader would be Madge with her also being a Godfather, explaining her D1 request. This would be followed by her culting BoomFrog N1, but this does require the recruit going after any cops. Also means bessie or Mark is the 3rd cult.
Why BoomFrog? BoomFrog couldn’t have been culted N1, I copped him. [note: since we can’t get the night action order, I’m going to default to MafiaScum NAR order] He would, however, be an ideal N2 target. So who do you think Madge may have recruited N1?


Also note, I have decided I am sane.
bessie wrote: What is the setup?
Am I non-sane? Is my sanity variable?
Why didn’t wam perform the N1 kill?
Why did Sabrar think he was roleblocked N2 if he didn’t have an action?
Who has the ter’angreal?
Why is Madge getting worse at breadcrumbs?
Why not a recruit or a mafia supporter?
Why would Vicarin perform the N1 kill instead of wam?
Why would Vicarin think Sabrar is commuter, not bulletproof, if Vicarin performed the kill?
Why is Vicarin willing to fall on the sword today? Does this fit with his meta? Does it make sense with his personality?
Then what was Vicarin up to on N1 that he doesn’t want us to know about?
wam's role pm is pretty powerful. Why didn't they try harder to save him instead of a ninja role cop that was going to be outed D3 anyway?
If I was redirected, who was I redirected to?
Madge what is your secondary win con?
Why did Madge change her secondary win con claim?
Who has the ter’angreal? Why has no one claimed it?
Why is Sabrar in the wrong fish bowl?

Vicarin, why do you think Sabrar is commuter?


Brain dump tonight when I get home.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:53 pm UTC

I'm quite surprised that last one is still open, you should be able to figure it out from my early D2 content.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby bessie » Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:55 pm UTC

BoomFrog, why didn’t you protect the claimed cop N1? You had a town read on him.

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4379682#p4379682
BoomFrog wrote:
bessie wrote:I find it interesting that no one protected Vicarin.

It's interesting, but it's not alignment indicative for Vicarin. The only marginally helpful conclusion I can draw from it is if Vic is mafia then his partner isn't a doctor.
Why wouldn’t it be alignment indicative for Vicarin?

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4379840#p4379840
BoomFrog wrote: A town doctor don't know his alignment, so the fact that they didn't protect him proves nothing about his alignment.
There were no counterclaims D1 (something that, hmm, IIRC was being held against me). So why wouldn’t a town doctor protect the uncounterclaimed town cop on N1?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby bessie » Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:58 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I'm quite surprised that last one is still open, you should be able to figure it out from my early D2 content.
That last one has been more in my thoughts than anything else on the list. Why did you not switch bowls based on my later D2 content?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:13 pm UTC

Does no one notice Vic is macho? Also, based on flavor, my power may not detect some powers.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:15 pm UTC

Mark_Cangila wrote:Does no one notice Vic is macho? Also, based on flavor, my power may not detect some powers.


Vic claimed macho D2, not D1. He's also not actually macho.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Aug 14, 2018 5:18 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Why did you not switch bowls based on my later D2 content?
Because at first I was otherwise occupied and then I decided to go for a lynch where I felt more sure about my read.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Aug 14, 2018 6:55 pm UTC

I'm in a training all day so can't post much.

bessie wrote:BoomFrog, why didn’t you protect the claimed cop N1? You had a town read on him.

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4379682#p4379682
BoomFrog wrote:
bessie wrote:I find it interesting that no one protected Vicarin.

It's interesting, but it's not alignment indicative for Vicarin. The only marginally helpful conclusion I can draw from it is if Vic is mafia then his partner isn't a doctor.
Why wouldn’t it be alignment indicative for Vicarin?

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4379840#p4379840
BoomFrog wrote: A town doctor don't know his alignment, so the fact that they didn't protect him proves nothing about his alignment.
There were no counterclaims D1 (something that, hmm, IIRC was being held against me). So why wouldn’t a town doctor protect the uncounterclaimed town cop on N1?


I didn't protect Vic because I expected him to target Madge and protecting her is also saving a cop. I expected scum to be reluctant about targeting the obvious target but if Madge died then Vic would remain unconfirmed. I was more confident that Madge was town then I was about Vic. Also, if Vic got roleblocked then Madge still gets to absorb a useful power. And because of the voting restriction I'm confirmed doctor.

If I'm town then I feel like the answers to the other two questions are obvious, so I guess your point is that if the doctor is scum then the doctors choice could indicate alignment. Which is true but not something I put a lot of thought into.

I'll try and do a full player analysis on the bus home today in about 6 hours.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Aug 14, 2018 6:58 pm UTC

Btw, the above logic is why I was questioning Sabrar about NK choice because I was convinced that he had targeted Madge and I'd stopped the NK. But I changed the line of questioning mid way because I didn't want to reveal I was the doctor.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:58 pm UTC

@Vic: Were you allowed to use your power and execute the kill simultaneously?
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:08 pm UTC

Possible scenarios I'm considering:
3rd mafia: Vic and Wam have a partner. They probably are a Godfather.
Cult leader: Probably not a Godfather, probably does have some kind of power. Probably not a very townie power seeing as wam and Vic had ambiguous or scummy powers. Probably has some NK resistance.
2 Mafia and a neutral Indy like survivor. 8-2-1 . If we'd had two mislynches we'd be at 4-2-1. So it's 3 mislynches for mafia to win. Seems a bit harsh for Mafia, and I remember JimBob complaining in chat that meta Mafia needed too many mislynches to win and that was 3 so unless his mind changed after the results of that game I doubt this scenario.

Poke holes in my thinking. I'm going to base my player reads on these assumptions.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:33 pm UTC

@BoomFrog: What about the scenario of 8-2-1 with an explicitly anti-Town indie like an SK?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby mpolo » Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:36 pm UTC

It's really late after a long day of travel. So I will just say that I am online. Phone posting at the moment, but I have a laptop with me. I probably won't be on till deadline, so I am going with the only move that seems supported by the evidence:

Vote: Vicarin
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:03 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:@BoomFrog: What about the scenario of 8-2-1 with an explicitly anti-Town indie like an SK?

It seems unlikely that we've been that lucky. Since the full details of moderator are already out there, I'll go ahead and admit that I roleblocked heuy N2. My logic being that if wam was scum Vic was scum and we are in a good position. If wam was town I was very wrong in my assessment so I should target someone I had cleared only on tone. So since Madge and I both didn't prevent a kill N2 that means for there to be a SK they had to target Sabrar or be Sabrar. But I don't think Sabrar would have made up the flavor of his RB if he was SK (or cult leader) so I'm fairly sure he is town. I guess it is possible SK tried to kill Sabrar, but the chances that we are in that universe are quite low (successfully blocked 3 out of 4 kills)
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:05 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:It's really late after a long day of travel. So I will just say that I am online. Phone posting at the moment, but I have a laptop with me. I probably won't be on till deadline, so I am going with the only move that seems supported by the evidence:

Vote: Vicarin


Can you call your target before nightfall? There should only be 1 scum left so if we pick right they can't do anything about it. It will help us prevent overlapping roleblocks.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:06 pm UTC

Hmm... except you also count as a doctor. I'll have to think about that actually...
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:55 pm UTC

Well, if no-one is actually going to help me make sure there isn't a cult about to win, I'd really prefer to just be put out of my misery so I can see how this game was supposed to be balanced. It's looking so damn town sided atm if there's no cult.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Aug 15, 2018 1:21 am UTC

Sabrar - I belive he was NKed N1 so not mafia. I belive he took no action N2 so not SK/Cult Leader. Very possible survivor.

Bessie - Self destructive D2 so not SK/CL. Counter claimed Vic so not mafia.

Madge - Asked to be copped N1 but then not N2 after getting meditator power. If she was Godfather she would have wanted to be copped N2 still. So not scum of any kind.

Mark - Enthusiastic attack on Vic so not Mafia. Possible cult leader or SK.

mpolo - Claimed flavor hinted maybe Miller. I think scum would have been more cautious about taking about their scummy flavor so unlikely to be scum. Actions have been poor so still a possibility of scum, but I feel like I have good reads of mpolo usually.

LaserGuy - Lynched wam and condemned Vic, extremely unlikely to be mafia. Passed on a chance to NL so very unlikely to be cult leader.

For completeness: Boomfrog - Actually a mediator unless Madge is cult leader godfather who recruited me N1 and recruit resolves after cop. Could totally be godfather 3rd mafia if you belive JimBob would give that role doctor powers. Possible if there is a SK but goes against the standardness shown in Vic and wam's roles. Also didn't doctor Vic which is odd if we are mates.

So yeah. I'm going to roleblock Mark tonight. I think Madge should roleblock mpolo and mpolo can target whoever he thinks is scummy.
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos


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