Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (N5)

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BoomFrog
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Aug 15, 2018 1:24 am UTC

If there is a Survivor out there it would be great if you claim. You've won the game we're not going to do anything to you, we're going to lynch Vic. Would save us a lot of stress.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby bessie » Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:18 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:Well, if no-one is actually going to help me make sure there isn't a cult about to win, I'd really prefer to just be put out of my misery so I can see how this game was supposed to be balanced. It's looking so damn town sided atm if there's no cult.
How are we supposed to help you find cult? You have more information than any of us do, and you’re not sharing it. So it’s up to you to build a case on someone. Your cult member speculation here has already been contested by me here with no further discussion from you. You never answered either of my two questions to you in that post. So I really don’t think that we are ones not being helpful.

BoomFrog wrote: Sabrar - I belive he was NKed N1 so not mafia. I belive he took no action N2 so not SK/Cult Leader. Very possible survivor.
Can you clarify if you meant that Sabrar took no action because he had no action to use, or because Sabrar was unable to use an action? There’s a subtle difference, since mpolo claims to have jailed Sabrar.


I just got home a little while ago and updated my chart. I don’t see any reason not to throw it out there, now that BoomFrog’s claimed. There are no contradictory claims, and no one left to claim.

Night action claims, ordered using MafiaScum night action resolution order.

N1 action claims
*heury does not have a night action.
mpolo jails LaserGuy.
wam redirects heury to LaserGuy.
BoomFrog targets Madge with doctor.
Madge visits Vicarin, passes ter’angreal.
Vicarin ninja NK Sabrar.
Sabrar does not die because bulletproof.
bessie cops BoomFrog, town result.
Vicarin rolecops bessie, cop result.
LaserGuy targets Madge, is roleblocked by mpolo.
Mark watches Vicarin, sees Madge visit.

N2 action claims
BoomFrog roleblocks heury.
mpolo jails Sabrar.
Sabrar was roleblocked.
BoomFrog targets heury with roleblock
Madge doctors bessie.
Vicarin passes ter’angreal to BoomFrog.
Vicarin ninja NK heury.
bessie cops LaserGuy, town result.
Vicarin rolecops ?
LaserGuy targets Vicarin, no visitors.
Mark watches bessie, sees Madge visit.
heury tracks ?, is roleblocked by BoomFrog.


Setup spec, reads, and whatever else in a bit. I want some time to think about BoomFrog’s content.

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Vicarin
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:44 am UTC

@bessie: I mainly thought Sabrar would be a commuter of some kind because bulletproof doesn't really fit with the pattern of claims that's been observed (some standard role, then a restriction added on). I guess bulletproof might still kind of fit with that pattern?

Also, I can't exactly share absolutely everything, as has been pointed out, I still need to try to win. It's absurdly unlikely, sure, but I am still trying. I'll obviously go with lynching anyone but myself, but I want cult dead too, and I'm pretty sure I'm the least likely person to be cult here :P . Seeing how there's apparently going to be a web of roleblocks, don't count on me shooting anything though.

Trying to make assumptions about the action resolution order seems like a fantastic way to get messed up, and I'd say recruits going after cops isn't terribly unlikely, so I'm surprised you're just ruling that out.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:53 am UTC

bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote: Sabrar - I belive he was NKed N1 so not mafia. I belive he took no action N2 so not SK/Cult Leader. Very possible survivor.
Can you clarify if you meant that Sabrar took no action because he had no action to use, or because Sabrar was unable to use an action? There’s a subtle difference, since mpolo claims to have jailed Sabrar.

I believe Sabrar took no action because he boldly claimed the flavor in this post:
Sabrar wrote:So wam not being RB is an issue. I got a flavor-text last night telling me that someone was keeping me up all night, just asking questions. No bolded result, guess this could be a roleblock attempt from a loud RB?
'Kill' flavor matches what I got N1 so we can probably safely conclude only 1 killing faction.
I don't think Cult Leader / SK Sabrar would try to fake this flavor, and LaserGuy confirmed it was consistent.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby bessie » Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:59 am UTC

The order is fairly standard. As jimbob has not confirmed the order, I need to go with my best guess as to what he used.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Natural_Action_Resolution


Ninja'd by BoomFrog. So you've saying you believe Sabrar had no action available to use?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:17 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:@bessie: I mainly thought Sabrar would be a commuter of some kind because bulletproof doesn't really fit with the pattern of claims that's been observed (some standard role, then a restriction added on). I guess bulletproof might still kind of fit with that pattern?


Why does commuter fit any better than BP with this consideration? Commuter is stronger than BP.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:22 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote: Sabrar - I belive he was NKed N1 so not mafia. I belive he took no action N2 so not SK/Cult Leader. Very possible survivor.
Can you clarify if you meant that Sabrar took no action because he had no action to use, or because Sabrar was unable to use an action? There’s a subtle difference, since mpolo claims to have jailed Sabrar.

I believe Sabrar took no action because he boldly claimed the flavor in this post:
Sabrar wrote:So wam not being RB is an issue. I got a flavor-text last night telling me that someone was keeping me up all night, just asking questions. No bolded result, guess this could be a roleblock attempt from a loud RB?
'Kill' flavor matches what I got N1 so we can probably safely conclude only 1 killing faction.
I don't think Cult Leader / SK Sabrar would try to fake this flavor, and LaserGuy confirmed it was consistent.


Why wouldn't he know what he flavor is if mpolo did really roleblock him?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby bessie » Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:23 am UTC

Vicarin wrote: I'll obviously go with lynching anyone but myself, but I want cult dead too, and I'm pretty sure I'm the least likely person to be cult here :P .

Ok. So your best guess for cult leader is Madge. And we know she visited you on N1 because she thought you were a cop. And, well, can you explain again why you’re the least likely recruit?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:33 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote: Sabrar - I belive he was NKed N1 so not mafia. I belive he took no action N2 so not SK/Cult Leader. Very possible survivor.
Can you clarify if you meant that Sabrar took no action because he had no action to use, or because Sabrar was unable to use an action? There’s a subtle difference, since mpolo claims to have jailed Sabrar.

I believe Sabrar took no action because he boldly claimed the flavor in this post:
Sabrar wrote:So wam not being RB is an issue. I got a flavor-text last night telling me that someone was keeping me up all night, just asking questions. No bolded result, guess this could be a roleblock attempt from a loud RB?
'Kill' flavor matches what I got N1 so we can probably safely conclude only 1 killing faction.
I don't think Cult Leader / SK Sabrar would try to fake this flavor, and LaserGuy confirmed it was consistent.


Why wouldn't he know what he flavor is if mpolo did really roleblock him?

For the record, I'm opposed to the plan that involves two of the scummiest players roleblocking two of the towniest.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:41 am UTC

@bessie: you seriously think letting cult convert mafia is remotely balanced? Do you seriously doubt I'm mafia at this point? :P

And I was thinking it would be an odd-night commuter or something along those lines, which would fall more in line with the 'role, but disadvantage' pattern, but clearly I can't tell what's balanced this game.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby bessie » Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:56 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:For the record, I'm opposed to the plan that involves two of the scummiest players roleblocking two of the towniest.
+1, QFT, dude etc.

I’m not sure I want to block the watcher. We don’t have many investigative roles left, just LaserGuy and Mark. Well I guess there’s me but I go into every night with the certainty that I’m going to die so whatever. Even if Mark lies it would give us some information.

Hmm, if Madge blocks mpolo, ... Someone that’s better at game mechanics than me, is jailer!mpolo blocked?

Vicarin wrote:@bessie: you seriously think letting cult convert mafia is remotely balanced?
Yes. Read Wheel of Time 2. The cults could add mafia to their cult.

Vicarin wrote:Do you seriously doubt I'm mafia at this point? :P
No.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:04 am UTC

I'm not sure that I'd call WoT2 that balanced, but fair enough :P. The main issue I have with your theory is that if I got culted, then basically wam lost instantly, and I'm even encouraged by my second wincon to let him die asap.

Also, you're the one looking up NAR order, you should know who gets blocked then. Weird you should ask, why don't you just assume?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby dimochka » Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:39 am UTC

Votals:

Madge - 1 (Vicarin)
Vicarin - 2 (Mark_Cangila, mpolo)

Not Voting: Sabrar, BoomFrog, Madge, LaserGuy, bessie

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Deadline is 21:00 UTC, Wednesday, 15th August, just under 16.5 hours from now. Deadline timer.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:09 am UTC

Actually, I think there's a very good chance BoomFrog is mafia with Vic/wam and bessie was redirected N1.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby mpolo » Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:18 am UTC

Quick check-in. I am willing to jail where it is logical and the majority are comfortable with the target. I'm having l real problems coming up with someone who is scummy with any certainty.

Would a two person Mafia with Ninja and strongman be enough to balance all the town powers we've seen? I suppose my power has an additional limitation that I haven't mentioned yet, so is a little weaker than otherwise. Combined with the loudness, which is logical, but not explicitly mentioned in the role message.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:08 am UTC

@LaserGuy: what would he need a doctor ability for then? Or is Madge lying?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:19 am UTC

@Madge: block me tonight if you still think I'm not confirmed.

We have 3 rb-s for 4 players. Blocking everyone besides bessie might be a good start.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:21 am UTC

EBWOP

Vote: Vicarin

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:09 am UTC

Sorry, this is super long, but I felt it was important to get everything out there so that we can plan accordingly. I'm not going to say that we should stop the Vicarin lynch, but we should be assuming in our planning for night phase that BoomFrog is very likely mafia. And probably there is no cult since the only people seriously considering that option are scum.

The associatives between wam/Boom/Vic are very interesting, especially on BoomFrog's end. First, BoomFrog puts early townreads on both scum players for... less than stellar reasons.

@wam: I was seriously just saying my guess at the setup is 8-3 since we just talked in gojoe about laserguy's analysis that 3 man scum teams are far more successful and I think that would be fresh in JimBob's mind. If I were mod I 'd have made a 3 man scum team with day chat and then all town PRs. Maybe it's because you read things all at once and didn't get the context of the timing, but it was pretty obvious that I was just following up on other people's recent setup spec. In what world would I seriously forget to not say how many scum there are as scum? What was the purpose of that sentence if I was scum?

Anyway, I don't think wam would be confident enough to attack me on such a ridiculous premise as scum so I'm putting him in the townie pile.


wam's read here is obviously nonsense, but this is a nice way to distance and for Boom to give an unjustified Townread.

The actual best result from my shenanigin is that it pissed vicarin off so much. I think scum!vicarain would have been happier to let me be a distraction. His frustration seems genuine so I am confident at least that he does need to determine wam's alignment. It's possible he is an indy, in which case he is probably on our side if wam is town. It seems very unlikely that he is scum. Although with the apparent craziness of JimBob's previous incarnations of WoT he might be some sort of cult wanabe or something but going back to my original point I suspect he does care about sorting me and is therefore town. @bessie: I recommend you broaden the scope of your investigations.


This is pretty much the same sort of thing. An excuse for Boom to provide an unjustified townread on Vicarin. Note that Vic returns the favor, going from scumreading Boom early in the game to a townread with nothing in between. Vic's progression here actually feels a little strange to me, in that it is EXACTLY the same as his reaction to Boom's woofing in NNY... basically exactly the same wordings. This is very strange regardless of Boom's alignment, but it results in Boom clearing Vic. But I feel like Boom should maybe have picked up on this? He says later that Vic was trying to sort him, but Vic is almost post-for-post identical to NNY, so this obviously isn't a real attempt at sorting. This will not be the first instance of Boom defending Vicarin.

FWIW, I think Boom is much more likely to defend newbie scum here. If bessie were tunneling wam, I think Boom would have just let it happen. I will have to look back, but I don't recall off the top of my head Boom ever attempt to redirect bessie from one of her D1 tunnels.

Here's Vic in both games, for the record:
Spoiler:
NNY:

I am mildly worried that BoomFrog seems to be trying to roleplay his new avatar.

Ok, this has gone on for long enough.

Vote:BoomFrog

until he stops it with the silly posting. While he has posted quotes to communicate and has what appears to be an ordered town-scum list, this has to stop ASAP.

BoomFrog - Is a dog, needs to stop being a dog. Has an ordered town-scum list (as far as I can tell)

Hallelujah

Unvote

Overall, I think BoomFrog has provided good enough reasons for what he did, and has been contributing a lot, so I'm happy to put him as Town.


Contrast this game:
I sincerely hope this BoomFrog roleplaying is more useful than the woofs were.

And while BoomFrog is being significantly more helpful than just woofing, it's clearly less useful that him just speaking plainly.

Unvote: Madge
Vote: BoomFrog

until he feels like being more straightforward.

BoomFrog: Still being really annoyingly obtuse with his phrasing, still has somewhat ok information? Still just want him to say stuff normally instead of using 20 words where 5 would suffice, and giving room to hide in the interpretation of his words. Will update when he stops with this silliness.

Thank goodness.

Unvote BoomFrog

I was seriously worried that you were going to try to keep it going seeing as this isn't a newbie game.

Town

heuristically_alone
BoomFrog
moody7277
LaserGuy
wam
Sabrar
mpolo
Madge
Mark_Canigla
bessie

Scum

Moody, LaserGuy, huh... umm I actually have too many town... 3rd by PoE is Madge or Bessie.


BoomFrog's reads are not normally this bad. Bessie and I were both tunneling scum!Vic here, btw. I'm a little skeptical off the additions of both bessie and Madge on here actually, since bessie has been very, very obviously Town!bessie this game, and BoomFrog claims later that he has a very good meta on Madge and does not scumread her. We'll come back to Madge later.

I was going to provide immediate translation but was then ninja'd by your post saying you figured out my answer after rereading. So I deleted the translation and left the offer to translate. Anyway, moody got the best translation, "I believe Vic is town or pro-town Indy." Vic cared about sorting me.


I can't remember which game it was from, but the whole "pro-Town indy" remark pings me pretty hard, since this is a nice way to try to deflect a lynch from a scummy player without necessarily reading them as scum. Pro-Town indies are quite rare and BoomFrog has no reason at this point to assume Vic is pro-Town. He seems to be basing this on Vic's wincon, which is suspect because wincons are supposed to be explicitly NAI. I am skeptical about his reasoning for assuming this anyway. Pro-Town indy Vic doesn't need to care about sorting BoomFrog any more than scum Vic does. And likewise, a decent scum is going to try to sort players because they want to look Town.

Noting that this is one of the comments I asked BoomFrog about that he never responded to.

Yes, I'd lynch a PoE before a pro-town indy. And yes, if there is a pro-town indy I expect there are still three true scum, although probably broken up into two mafia and one pro mafia indy or SK or cult or something. And feel like you are intentionally trying to ignore the distinction of neutral/unknown indy vs pro-town indy. Also, I suspected Vic was either town or pro-town indy and I suspect you are either town or scum. Yes the ratios are different, but not that different.

And for the record I now think Vic is just town.


Again, I'm not sure why Boom is assuming pro-Town indy here. BoomFrog's persistent, and unexplained Townread on Vic is noted again.

Now to the real topic: Guys, isn't this exactly what happened in Meta Mafia? Vic is aggressive and role-fishy by nature and he gets himself too much flak for erratic behavior D1. I wasn't there to watch it go down, but it seems similar.


This isn't why Vic was being scumread. Defending Vic again.

Other cops should not target Madge tonight.


Seems odd that BoomFrog would expect there to be more than one cop in a game this small in D1.

It would be absolutely halarious if both of them were town cops. I find it very likely that Bessie and Vic did both pick white Ajah. More likely though is that scum were given full safe claims. Has JimBob as a mod typically given any kind of safeclaim? Even if he didn't before it's very possible he did now.


Interesting that Boom immediately jumps to two cops rather than Town/scum here. I don't think he actually ever considers the Town/scum scenario. Dismissing the claim/counterclaim based on possible safeclaims is weird anyway. Vic claimed with <2 hours till lynch. There's only a handful of claims that are strong enough that he wouldn't be lynched here. Like I'm pretty sure I would have kept my vote on him if he claimed Tracker or something.

bessie wrote:I find it interesting that no one protected Vicarin.

It's interesting, but it's not alignment indicative for Vicarin. The only marginally helpful conclusion I can draw from it is if Vic is mafia then his partner isn't a doctor.


I don't think this follows, actually, but it's convenient for Boom to mention this.

So your claim didn't really add any info. However, remember when is said sometimes the best thing town can do is make a mistake? Because of your eagerness to resolve this dilemma I can tell with 95% certainty that you are town.


This is the guy that Boom wants to roleblock, btw.

Can you see a way that both of you are town? That no one is a liar? Does it not fit every event so far?


Can Boom see a way Vic is scum? Apparently not.

Why are you not considering that Vicarin is an insane cop, Bessie is sane, and they are both just butting heads as they would no matter alignments?


More defending Vic.

It's not as unlikely as you think. Assuming Vic and Bessie both we're assigned white Ajah before alignments. (Seems very likely). Then alignments decided they were both town. How would a mod balance that? Making one secretly insane seems like a reasonable disadvantage to balance the power of two cops.

If Vic or Bessie was scum they would most likely be a rolecop. And this situation could have happened.

That means the fact that they are both claiming cop is not very alignment indicative and we should be deciding based on their merits. Although it's basically garunteed that they are not both scum, so actually their chances of being scum are lower then average. Additionally if they are town their information is extremely valuable.

Therefore we should leave them both alive for now and gather more results, unless you feel one is scummy for non-claim reasons. You love breaking the game by exploiting powers. If you were town you'd be all over proving the cops with powers and deduction instead of lynching one of our most valuable assets.

How unfortunate for us all that Sabrar is scum.


More defending Vic. Trying to postpone the lynch.

Let me reconsider, you may have misunderstood my reasoning. I think they are obviously not scummates. It's still theoretically possible Vic is Indy and Bessie is mafia. But that is a truly unlikely set of events.

Actually, Vic could be a cult recruit... Not much we can do there. Also, I'm offended at any cult that didn't recruit me first.


More defending Vic. Throwing out every possibility except for Scum!Vic. Try to find the post where this read is explained.

Anyway, if Vic is mafia his partner is Sabrar or wam, and I think probably Sabrar.


Oops.

You are making this overly hypothetical on purpose to disentangle it with your reality. We know the cop[s] are macho so scum probably don't have a strongman.


Oops.

And killer scummate LG was blocked is also possible.


It's weird for Boom to be assuming that I was roleblocked by Town here, given that's he's claiming to be Town roleblocker.

What? Okay, I do recall a quip or two that I ignored. I'm already posting a ton, but I'll humor you. You said something about me basing my logic on you being scum. Don't worry, you bring scum is not used to prove anything else. It's more that since you are so cagey you are the leftover POE scum partner. Which is unsatisfying, but must be proven by exhausting every other possibility.


I wasn't going to bother bringing this up earlier because I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, but for the record, here's are the comments BoomFrog missed:
LaserGuy wrote:What in particular made you think that Vic would necessarily be a pro-Town indie vs. an anti-Town one? Your proverb is a bit weird also since the overwhelming majority of indies roles played on this site are anti-Town. Which posts in this sequence changed your mind about him being indie vs Town?

LaserGuy wrote:Why do you think this is more likely than claim/counterclaim from scum/Town?

Why is Vicarin Town?

LaserGuy wrote:Also, the fact that you posted this and didn't even comment on my analysis makes me think that you aren't even trying to solve this game.

Ignoring this all looks pretty bad in retrospect.

I don't see a potential scum partner for wam... : /


Really? That's interesting.

Wam might be indy though.


Oh, look, it's this again.

I've been assuming the roleblocker was town, but Vic raises a valid concern.


This assumption is very suspect coming from a supposed Town roleblocker. Likewise, why isn't BoomFrog more skeptical of mpolo here?

I'd rather no lynch then lynch wam, but Vic sabotaged any chance of that happening.

Lynching wam is a risk, if we get it wrong and the night goes poorly we will have to guess correctly between the cops. But that's the game. Wam is pretty likely to be scum. In fact a Vic/wam team is looking very likely. I guess a lot of things have to go wrong for this to actually be a problem. Lets go for it.


Oops.

As an aside, I'm noting how indecisive BoomFrog is about his reads here. Compare to MetaMafia, where, unsatisfied with the SDK wagon, he set out alone to try to lynch moody. In this game he isn't even trying to push any wagons.

I know I'm good but I've been confirmed by the town cop and I was pro lynching both of the confirmed scum.


This is a lie.

I was more confident that Madge was town then I was about Vic.


This is also a lie. Here's BoomFrog's D1 lynch pool:
Moody, LaserGuy, huh... umm I actually have too many town... 3rd by PoE is Madge or Bessie.


It seems unlikely that we've been that lucky. Since the full details of moderator are already out there, I'll go ahead and admit that I roleblocked heuy N2.


This is a very strange choice.

EBWOP: I strongly supported wam* and Vic* D1.


Another lie.

I don't think there's a third member of the Vic wam team because the only plausible candidates are LaserGuy and me, and Laserguy's definitely not on their team.


Scumslip.

For completeness: Boomfrog - Actually a mediator unless Madge is cult leader godfather who recruited me N1 and recruit resolves after cop. Could totally be godfather 3rd mafia if you belive JimBob would give that role doctor powers. Possible if there is a SK but goes against the standardness shown in Vic and wam's roles. Also didn't doctor Vic which is odd if we are mates.


Interesting that he doesn't mention bessie being redirected as a possibility here. Also interesting that he clears every player as not-mafia. I have memories of the end of Crossover mafia where Boom was advancing the SK theory to try to deflect the attention away from the hidden mafia.

I'm thinking about it, and I'm leaning toward agreeing with Sabrar here that Vic claiming makes zero sense unless there's a third partner. Game could be over for all Vic knows if there's only two mafia.

Note also: Vic suggesting heury was redirected does not make a lot of sense here. Scum redirecting bessie is. Scum is not afraid of heury at end of D1. They're afraid of bessie. Even if BoomFrog isn't scum, this is the right play here. More importantly, the only reason that Vic has to claim that he didn't redirect bessie N1 is to protect BoomFrog. He's trying to push cult (so is BoomFrog, incidentally)... why wouldn't he claim that scum redirected bessie N1 and try to implicate BoomFrog as cult leader? Why is Vic defending him?

tl;dr:
Vic and Boom are scum together. Assuming lynch Vic, we should plan night actions accordingly.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby bessie » Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:13 am UTC

Updated status of what I'm thinking.
bessie wrote: What is the setup?
Am I non-sane? Is my sanity variable?
Why didn’t wam perform the N1 kill?
Why did Sabrar think he was roleblocked N2 if he didn’t have an action?
Who has the ter’angreal?
Why is Madge getting worse at breadcrumbs?
Why not a recruit or a mafia supporter?
Why would Vicarin perform the N1 kill instead of wam?
Why would Vicarin think Sabrar is commuter, not bulletproof, if Vicarin performed the kill?
Why is Vicarin willing to fall on the sword today? Does this fit with his meta? Does it make sense with his personality?
Then what was Vicarin up to on N1 that he doesn’t want us to know about?
wam's role pm is pretty powerful. Why didn't they try harder to save him instead of a ninja role cop that was going to be outed D3 anyway?
If I was redirected, who was I redirected to?
Madge what is your secondary win con?
Why did Madge change her secondary win con claim?
Who has the ter’angreal? Why has no one claimed it?
Why is Sabrar in the wrong fish bowl?

Some speculations:
-I’m still going with 8-2-1, with the 1 being a recruit or a mafia supporter.
-wam didn’t perform the night kill because Vicarin is the one that can recruit instead of kill if they target a traitor.
-Vicarin thinks Sabrar is commuter because he neither died nor was recruited N1.
-Mafia sacrificed wam over Vicarin because Vicarin is the more valuable member.
-Vicarin is willing to sacrifice himself now because he has a pretty good idea who the traitor is, even if he failed to recruit that person.

Ninja'd, its a long one, so posting before reading.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:14 am UTC

Regarding NAR: Throne of Lies has recruit after investigation so it's not unheard of. Scum!rb usually comes before town!rb. IIRC simple rb should come before jail but I need to find the source again.

bessie wrote:
Vicarin wrote:@bessie: you seriously think letting cult convert mafia is remotely balanced?
Yes. Read Wheel of Time 2. The cults could add mafia to their cult.
Poor example. 1) Cult was not anti-town. 2) Mafia's wincon wouldn't have changed so it wasn't really a recruit. Basically it wasn't a cult game in the traditional sense.

LaserGuy wrote:Actually, I think there's a very good chance BoomFrog is mafia with Vic/wam and bessie was redirected N1.
Hey look at that! The end is truly near...

Ninja'd twice but not going to read now.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:37 am UTC

Ugh, fine, this is getting too close, I can't sit on this any more.

I rolecopped BoomFrog last night, giving him the ter'angreal to mask it in case of someone watching because my ninjaness only works for the kill, and he's the cult leader. Also has the Mediator powers, as he did claim, so I'm not completely sure if Madge got converted.

I'd obviously prefer to not kill the leader straight up because then it's harder for me to survive tomorrow if town doesn't need to worry about a cult as much, but I'll take what I can get.

Unvote: Madge

Vote: BoomFrog


Sorry LaserGuy for rendering your carefully thought out post kinda irrelevant :P

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:45 am UTC

:shock:

Mmm...

Okay.

I'm going to sleep on that one.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:47 am UTC

Okay, maybe not.

@Vic: Was bessie redirected? Or is he also GF?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:54 am UTC

@jimbob: If someone's alignment were changed during the course of the game, would their initial alignment, final alignment, or both be revealed upon their flip?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Aug 15, 2018 8:36 am UTC

I'm going to pencil this in for now because I can't see a way to ignore that result if it's true. bessie/Sabrar, would appreciate any input you can give.

Vote: BoomFrog

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Aug 15, 2018 8:45 am UTC

Leaving this reveal to almost the last minute is suspicious, it looks more like a final desperate attempt from Vicarin to survive another day. Not sure what that would accomplish as we would certainly RB him and it's almost impossible for him to be Strongman. Other than that the whole situation reeks like a wineyard. If BoomFrog is his scum-buddy and we were to lynch him then it would be the absolute worst outcome for the scum-team. However I think Vicarin can reasonably expect that he won't convince too many people, so it could be a gambit as well. I for one don't plan to believe an outted scum.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:13 am UTC

@LaserGuy: Yeah, ok, wam redirected bessie onto Mark N1 just to see if we could mess some town up. I killed h_a last night because I had no goddamn idea what he had (that turned out greeeat, he was like the least useful town) and rolecopped BoomFrog to make sure he wasn't trying to mislead as to what the downside of his doctor was by not voting. Really regretting not shooting mpolo now to be honest...

@Sabrar: yes, I am kinda desperate at this point, not gonna lie. If you think I'm so screwed anyway though, you may as well check if I'm telling the truth, right? :P Surely risking it all on BoomFrog not being the cult leader is a pretty dumb idea if you think I'm a lone scum, and if you think he's my scummate, you're best off lynching him first anyway.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:43 pm UTC

Votals:

Vicarin - 3 (Mark_Cangila, mpolo, Sabrar)
BoomFrog - 2 (Vicarin, LaserGuy)

Not Voting: BoomFrog, Madge, bessie

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Deadline is 21:00 UTC, Wednesday, 15th August, just under 6.5 hours from now. Deadline timer.

LaserGuy wrote:@jimbob: If someone's alignment were changed during the course of the game, would their initial alignment, final alignment, or both be revealed upon their flip?
Flips will always include final alignment at the time of death. They may or may not include previous alignments.
BlitzGirl the Primordial
matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

Image

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby mpolo » Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:06 pm UTC

LaserGuy's case against Boomfrog is quite convincing. (More convincing than Vicarin would have been without that argument.) Enough that I will:

Unvote
Vote: Boomfrog
Image <-- Evil experiment

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:09 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:I believe Sabrar took no action because he boldly claimed the flavor in this post:
Sabrar wrote:So wam not being RB is an issue. I got a flavor-text last night telling me that someone was keeping me up all night, just asking questions. No bolded result, guess this could be a roleblock attempt from a loud RB?
'Kill' flavor matches what I got N1 so we can probably safely conclude only 1 killing faction.
I don't think Cult Leader / SK Sabrar would try to fake this flavor, and LaserGuy confirmed it was consistent.


Why wouldn't he know what he flavor is if mpolo did really roleblock him?
I assumed that if Sabrar had taken an action the flavor would be something like, "You didn't find time to do X as someone kept you up all night talking." So Action!Sabrar wouldn't feel confident that the RB would be loud on someone with no action.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:25 pm UTC

@LaserGuy: 75% of what you said is accurate evidence but 25% is misinterpreted either intentionally or accedentally. What is concerning is that you are waiting until now to bring all this up. Especially the "unanswered questions" which I explicitly asked you to repeat because I'd missed them since I was trying to sort out the two cop thing. Also, 2/3rds of your case is that I'm mafia with Vic, so why did Vic claiming I'm cult leader convince you to vote? There's no way you should be convinced by claimed scum.

@mpolo don't let argument by volume when. This deluge coming 6 hours before deadline and I don't have time to refute that I have to work. Let's lynch Vic and RB me if you are worried. Or I can put down a vote so I can't use my power.

@madge: will you roleblock LaserGuy tonight since I might be roleblocked by mpolo?
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby bessie » Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:28 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:I'm not sure that I'd call WoT2 that balanced, but fair enough :P. The main issue I have with your theory is that if I got culted, then basically wam lost instantly, and I'm even encouraged by my second wincon to let him die asap.
How would wam lose instantly? You would still need to somehow make sure he died before the cult leader (assuming cult ends if leader dies which is not necessarily true but whatever), which is not a given. And for the record I still do not believe you are telling the complete truth about your secondary win con.

Sabrar wrote:Poor example. 1) Cult was not anti-town. 2) Mafia's wincon wouldn't have changed so it wasn't really a recruit. Basically it wasn't a cult game in the traditional sense.
Cults divided the town in to two factions that could not both win. So in a sense it was anti-town if you were in the other town cult. And where did I say that mafia’s win con changed? I only said that the cults could add mafia to their faction.

LaserGuy, I don’t have time to respond in full to your long post. Many of the BoomFrog-Vicarin D1 points were brought up by me on D1 (ref here), that’s why I copped BoomFrog, so I obviously follow your analysis. mpolo should probably block BoomFrog, but the NAR is unclear to me, it seems that roleblocker normally resolves first, but this is not a normal game and all roles have some restrictions.

Hmm, I was going to put BoomFrog back in my random investigation pool. Whatever, I’m probably dead anyway.

Vicarin wrote:Ugh, fine, this is getting too close, I can't sit on this any more.
Like I really trust any last minute claim that you’re going to make.

Sabrar wrote: I for one don't plan to believe an outted scum.
+1 blah blah

Interesting, that some of you are actually considering lynching suspected scum over known scum. Even more so because I remember trying to discuss this strategy in Newbie New Year mafia, where I said that it might be a better strategic choice to save obviscum Peaceful Whale for later in the game when a mislynch could lose twenty dollars and my self respect for town, and lynch someone else D1. And I wasn’t able to generate any discussion no one would even talk about it, and I was being scumread for not voting for Peaceful Whale. It was the main reason for scumreading me. I don’t have time to review that game right now.

I’m leaving for work soon and will need to vote before I leave.

Ninja'd. Back in a bit, I'd like to vote for Vicarin.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:28 pm UTC

Vicarin is 100% scum. BoomFrog only about 80%. Why risk anything?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:31 pm UTC

Also, scum so far have had scummy powers. So it's real weird if the cult leader was a doctor (which LaserGuy ignores). However Laserguy's power is a little less standard then the others that have been confirmed in game, and he claimed second to last, so easily didn't have to worry about contradictions.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby bessie » Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:33 pm UTC

I didn't realize BoomFrog was leading the votals, I missed that with mpolo switching Vicarin was no longer at L-2. So I guess its safe for me to vote.

Vote: Vicarin

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:34 pm UTC

Btw, I'm going to RB LaserGuy too. @mpolo please declare your intention to RB or not so Madge can plan her night action.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:36 pm UTC

Good point. If I was cult leader on the verge of winning Madge and I could have speed lynched Vic when he was at L-2.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:38 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:@LaserGuy: 75% of what you said is accurate evidence but 25% is misinterpreted either intentionally or accedentally. What is concerning is that you are waiting until now to bring all this up.


It's only when you made those ridiculous night action suggestions that I actually went back and ISOed you. I'm not really expecting you to be lynched today, though I'd be quite happy forcing you to vote.

Especially the "unanswered questions" which I explicitly asked you to repeat because I'd missed them since I was trying to sort out the two cop thing.


And I decided not to bother because I thought you were Town. Some of these were in D1.

Also, 2/3rds of your case is that I'm mafia with Vic, so why did Vic claiming I'm cult leader convince you to vote? There's no way you should be convinced by claimed scum.


Because if you are scum with Vic, there's nothing wrong with lynching Vic today and you tomorrow. If you are cult leader, you may have two recruits and the game is lost if we lynch Vic today.

@madge: will you roleblock LaserGuy tonight since I might be roleblocked by mpolo?


You and Madge should both vote today. mpolo can roleblock you. I've been cleared by the cop and have already lynched mafia.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:57 pm UTC

Wam was going down anyway at that point, and you could be godfather. If I was cult leader why didn't cult speedlynch Vic at L-2? mpolo is clearly not in my cult, so I must have had one member who wasn't voting Vic yet.
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