Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (N5)

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BoomFrog
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:57 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Okay, am I in wam's team or Vicarin's? Explain my D2 or D3 vote in either case. Explain why I didn't kill bessie when I had the perfect opportunity to do so last night. You're just struggling.

The theory I'm considering is Vic and Wam are a 2 man mafia. And you are cult leader. I believe everyone has the powers they have claimed, which leaves only you, madge and maybe LaserGuy with scummy powers. However as you say 2 Mafia and a cult leader and a survivor seems too unfair for town.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:58 pm UTC

The problem with that theory is that would mean LaserGuy was sincere yesterday, which is hard for me to evaluate through the omgus.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby Madge » Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:35 pm UTC

bessie wrote:
Madge wrote:Doctored laserguy.
Madge, why didn’t you target mpolo?


Because I didn't understand the plan and unfortunately didn't get online until after deadline so couldn't ask for clarification. The way I read the plan was that I roleblock mpolo who roleblocks Boomfrog? But then Boomfrog doesn't get roleblocked?

I think Boomfrog is eithe rtownie AF or scummy AF so FMPOV, having him jailed is perfect: protects him from being killed by scum, and prevents him from killing as scum. So I liked that mpolo was doing that.

Didn't find mpolo townie enough to protect so I decided to protect laserguy who had a town cop result.

BoomFrog wrote:
Madge wrote:
bessie wrote:Your claim fits with some of my observations.

I would like to hear Madge’s claim before I post updated setup spec.


Doctored laserguy.

I did doctor bessie N2, i felt stupid for doing so once i remembered she was macho. but i was rushing to submit my action so...

why did you not roleblock when we had strong suspicion of a cult and doctor wouldn't help then? Also am I off the very nice list?


I'm wondering if we have cult or if we've been very lucky with ALL our bulletproof, roleblocks, doctors, and perhaps the two scum factions having their own odd/even factional kill.

You are on the Schrodinger's nice list. Either you are the friendly town doctor, or you are evil manipulative cult leader with doctor power. I don't think a cult leader would target an absorber D1 with a doctor power, unless they wanted this very thing to happen (town to eat out of their hand because they're a doctor after all)

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 19, 2018 4:09 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:The theory I'm considering is Vic and Wam are a 2 man mafia. And you are cult leader.
So why didn't I convert bessie who could out me?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Aug 19, 2018 4:19 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:The theory I'm considering is Vic and Wam are a 2 man mafia. And you are cult leader.
So why didn't I convert bessie who could out me?

Indeed. I'd just come to that conclusion about 5 minutes ago while in the shower. LaserGuy Cult Leader also makes no sense. He could have let me roleblock mark and mpolo, there was no need for him to antagonize the admitted roleblocker. If mpolo hadn't agreed with him I'd have roleblocked LG and that would be terrible. It was high risk for little reward, he wouldn't have done it. Which means he is probably town and I'll need to go through all his points.

Although the crux of things is that, I supported (as in called town) wam and vic D1 but me being a godfather mediator should be fairly implausible. Vic and wam both had scummy powers. Do you disagree with that LG?

I'm open to any setup theories, because nothing makes sense. Something anti-town still exists. It's not a kill and I don't think it's a recruitment.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Aug 19, 2018 5:35 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Although the crux of things is that, I supported (as in called town) wam and vic D1 but me being a godfather mediator should be fairly implausible. Vic and wam both had scummy powers. Do you disagree with that LG?


I think bessie was probably redirected N1, so you can just be scum without being a godfather. I think there's more than just you calling wam Town for D1 and Vic Town for all of D1/D2, but I've already written it up so you can read for yourself.

If it's not you, then my best theory is SK!Madge who has been roleplaying SK!SDK (in that she has been repeatedly withholding). Her power is the one the feels the most out-of-place in this game (especially when we already had a backup).

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby mpolo » Sun Aug 19, 2018 3:53 pm UTC

Laptop didn't work (wrong plug), so I'm stuck with phone posting. Now I can be a millennial! :wink:

I could see Madge or Boomfrog as the remaining scum, while Bessie, LaserGuy, Sabrar, Mark are feeling townie. Of course Madge could have blocked me and didn't...
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Aug 19, 2018 3:55 pm UTC

That's a good theory, but why did she ask to be copped N1 then recind N2? If she was a GF SK she would want to be copped still.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Aug 19, 2018 3:58 pm UTC

Votals:

None

Not Voting: Everyone

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline is 21:00 UTC, Wednesday, 22nd August. Deadline timer.
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Image

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby bessie » Sun Aug 19, 2018 5:35 pm UTC

I’ve reread the thread, but I don’t feel as if I’m getting anywhere. I was reading Vicarin as scum since D1, and wam as his partner since D2, so a reread hasn’t added anything to my understanding of the game, its only confirmed what I already saw. Same with Sabrar, I had a soulread that he was non-town since D1, but bessie doesn’t do soulreads so it was in the back of my mind, and I had Vicarin to tunnel for the past three days anyway.

So what did I get from my reread? I’m trying not to rehash a lot of stuff I’ve said before, but I want to present enough so that everyone can follow my thought process.

Regarding Vicarin, his D1 content was so scummy. First of all, there was the BoomFrogGambit reaction, see my analysis here. Second, Vicarin’s reason for scum reading me (that my gameplay in this game was similar to Stellaris, which would make me scum) was invalid, since he was never able to provide an example of how this differed from my town meta, despite multiple prods from me (lots on page 6, not linking them all). Third and most interesting was Vicarin’s attack on me for something that happened in Stellaris (I’m not even entirely sure exactly what his argument is anymore, but the crux is his argument that a certain game mechanic would never exist). His basis that this is a scum tell for me in the previous game was because I wasn’t able to pull a reference out of my ass and I didn’t take the time to go through old games to find this particular mechanic. I’m not sure what the logic was that made me scum in this game for it, must tie to #2 somehow. But anyway, I could see that he was trying to distract me into spending my entire last RL night on D1 working on a non productive task, so I called him on it (ok, I purposely baited him). And as I thought would happen, Vicarin was fine with me reading through 11 pages of old games instead of working on the current one. This is so anti-town I don’t even know where to start. Vicarin tried to start it up again on D2 see here , but I shot it down immediately.

So, end of D1, I’m super suspicious of anyone ignoring Vicarin’s anti-town behavior in #3, and for buying his cop claim so easily. This would be heury, wam, BoomFrog, Sabrar, LaserGuy (other players were more detached from end of day). Especially BoomFrog, which is why I copped him. This lead me to the D2 fishbowl thing, which was just a way to force everyone to commit even if they weren't voting, with LaserGuy in my bowl, and BoomFrog and Madge ending up in my bowl in the most noncommittal way possible, and Sabrar still in the wrong place.

Vicarin/wam team analysis. I keep going back and forth on my setup, as to whether or not these two are on the same team. I believe that there were early indicators that they were on the same team, like Vicarin’s disinterest in sorting wam, see here. But I think the main scumslip that they were partners was at the end of D2, see my post here. I also mentioned this on D3 and no one was interested, which I find, interesting. Why has no one asked me about this? The only players I expected to see the same thing as me were Sabrar and LaserGuy. But Sabrar was totally uninterested, which makes sense with his claim. So FoS everyone else. One of you is ignoring me because you already knew, as wam did.

Also in my mind is that at the end of D2, Vicarin doesn’t make a self preservation vote and move from me to wam. Is he hoping someone else will move to me? (Sabrar, heury, BoomFrog)

Another post coming up. The forum ate my post twice already so I'll post in pieces.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby bessie » Sun Aug 19, 2018 5:38 pm UTC

Some other random thoughts from my reread.

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4379565#p4379565
LaserGuy wrote:@bessie, can you claim flavor? I'm assuming you targeted Boom?
I did not understand what LaserGuy was asking for here. I thought he was asking if I left Wheel of Time flavor breadcrumbs on D1. I did not. My answer was because I’ve been roleplaying macho cop and overconfident logician. LaserGuy, is there anything in particular you would still like answered?

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4379607#p4379607
LaserGuy wrote:I'm not sure I've ever actually seen a situation with a strong fake claim on D1.
Unmafia. Two cop situation. N0 Misnomer got a mafia result on Latero, Latero counterclaimed cop (town result on Madge). The most frustrating game mechanic ever - no flips. There were probably others but I’m not going through old games in search of one.

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4379815#p4379815
Vicarin wrote:Madge is contributing a decent amount now that D2 has started, so she's feeling better as long as she keeps it up, the rolespec in addition to what we currently know will probably help clear people.
I don’t see this at all, interesting read from Vicarin, but is it relevant to Madge’s alignment?

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4382087#p4382087
Vicarin wrote:BoomFrog, the power and restriction you're going to claim have been pretty damn obvious to me since D2, so I'm not sure what you're worried about.
If Vicarin suspected BoomFrog was mediator since D2, why did he kill heury for being roleblocker? The choice of heury is still confusing me. Is it possible the kill was not who scum intended to kill?

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4382176#p4382176
Why did Madge wait until D3 to breadcrumb mediator?


So all of these thoughts are independent of any page 23 content. I’ll make another post in a bit after I think about the newest content, and with thoughts about the setup.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 19, 2018 5:45 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Same with Sabrar, I had a soulread that he was non-town since D1,
It's not important right now but after the game I would be really interested in the reason behind this. Along with the translation promised here, so don't skip on me. :)

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby bessie » Sun Aug 19, 2018 5:46 pm UTC

They're both already in Gojoe. :wink:

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 19, 2018 5:55 pm UTC

Oh good. :P

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby bessie » Sun Aug 19, 2018 7:03 pm UTC

Madge’s answers here make sense. Oh wait. There’s this.
Madge wrote:You are on the Schrodinger's nice list. Either you are the friendly town doctor, or you are evil manipulative cult leader with doctor power. I don't think a cult leader would target an absorber D1 with a doctor power, unless they wanted this very thing to happen (town to eat out of their hand because they're a doctor after all)
Why not, if the doctor power doesn’t protect from cult? Also note, you are talking about BoomFrog. :P

Madge, why did you wait until D3 to breadcrumb?

BoomFrog wrote:me being a godfather mediator should be fairly implausible.
Agree with this, I do not see mediator as a scum power. But the only evidence we have that you are mediator is from Madge.

LaserGuy wrote:If it's not you, then my best theory is SK!Madge who has been roleplaying SK!SDK (in that she has been repeatedly withholding). Her power is the one the feels the most out-of-place in this game (especially when we already had a backup).
I agree with Madge’s claimed power being the most indie-type. But, um, meta read :shock: , can you see Madge withholding a kill three nights in a row? Or even one? Look at Secret Santa, she used a power where she didn’t even know what it did. Perhaps both of us will spontaneously burst in to flames overnight. :P

mpolo wrote:I could see Madge or Boomfrog as the remaining scum, while Bessie, LaserGuy, Sabrar, Mark are feeling townie. Of course Madge could have blocked me and didn't...
Sabrar claimed survivor.


Thoughts about the setup. Well, still thinking about it. Re cult, I still don’t think we have one, but I do think that it would be possible for a starting cult/mafia/etc of 1 person that is guaranteed a recruit (see Draculafia but note that I am unclear on all the mechanical aspects of that game because Djehutynakht didn’t post the role pms, but I think SDK was guaranteed a recruit).

I said somewhere that I expected a fairly traditional setup for this game based on some discussion in Gojoe over the past six months on the possible scope and newbie-friendliness. But I’m open to thinking about other possibilities. Now for some infamous bessie-gaming-the–game analysis, note that there is only one newbie in this game, and dimochka is co-modding. It’s possible that the setup is more complex than I originally believed.

Sabrar wrote:I never said it was impossible but I find it hard to believe for balance reasons. Assume 7-2-1-1 starting setup. Mislynch D1, successful kill and recruit N1 respectively means 4-2-2-1 setup D2 and Town is already in minority.
Reread my summary of The 13 Ghosts of Scooby-Doo in this post. Town started as the minority, so it’s possible. [Note this is directed at everyone not just Sabrar because of course it is not necessarily in Sabrar's best interests to help town figure this out.]


I know I haven’t drawn any conclusions from this yet, but I’m going out for a few hours.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby mpolo » Sun Aug 19, 2018 9:16 pm UTC

I had forgotten about Sabrar 's indie claim. I don't think he is anti-town at the moment, though.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 20, 2018 12:10 am UTC

It isn't zebras interest to figure this out since she and I are looking like the next to venture this unless something changes.

It is in Sabrar's best interest to figure this out since he and I are looking like the next two lynches, unless something changes. :D
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 20, 2018 12:11 am UTC

I believe Vic had only guessed I was a peaceful doctor, not mediator.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby Madge » Mon Aug 20, 2018 2:01 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:That's a good theory, but why did she ask to be copped N1 then recind N2? If she was a GF SK she would want to be copped still.


To be clear, I wanted to be copped because I thought two cops would be advantageous to Town, and when I got a doctor power, I was like aww yis, a doctor is a great power to have two of, I will use that all game and I never vote anyway so all good. So I didn't want doctors to waste investigations on me if they had a better scumread.

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4382176#p4382176
Why did Madge wait until D3 to breadcrumb mediator?


Because I wanted BoomFrog to know I could confirm him since he was talking about claiming. Can I please emphasise that that was NOT a breadcrumb, it was a message (that said it's probably good for me if you think I'm a crap breadcrumber so my real breadcrumbs can be mysterious). Obviously I was working a level below BoomFrog since he already knew I knew he knew I knew etc etc. So I shouldn't have, in retrospect.

Zebra is Sabrar's new nickname.

Nice: Bessie, Laserguy

Naughty: Sabrar (sorry you're naughty forever since you're indie. I will try and keep you alive if I have no other options)

I don't even: BoomFrog

NFI: mpolo

talk won't you: mark

Why is there no pressure on Mark? I keep forgetting he's playing. Scum trying to be invisible?
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby bessie » Mon Aug 20, 2018 3:02 am UTC

Madge wrote:Because I wanted BoomFrog to know I could confirm him since he was talking about claiming.
Why the urgency on D3 and not on D2? Where was BoomFrog talking about claiming? BoomFrog has claimed next to nothing all game. And so you don’t need to look it up, your mediator message is here.
Madge wrote:Yep, I targeted Bessie. She's not dead or roleblocked so I didn't do anything wrong. I don't think we'll need to get a mediator or anything, because hopefully Mark can drop his suspicion since town is, you know, quite often targeting other town.


Madge wrote: Can I please emphasise that that was NOT a breadcrumb, it was a message
You don’t need to tell BoomFrog he’s a mediator, and there are better ways to tell him that you can confirm him, like oh I don’t know, saying “bessie’s not dead or roleblocked”. So who was this a message to?


Madge wrote:Zebra is Sabrar's new nickname.
Ok you and BoomFrog need to ... I don't even ... I’m having trouble posting because I’m laughing so hard.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby Madge » Mon Aug 20, 2018 3:12 am UTC

What's your theory that explains it better than my explanation? That I got culted by BF on N2, not N1, and that we got cult chat and I was.... trying to legitimately breadcrumb with that thing to prepare me for a claim? You know I knew it was an obvious crumb, right? Or do you think I was being clever and subtle by putting the name of the role in plaintext in my post?
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby bessie » Mon Aug 20, 2018 3:23 am UTC

Madge wrote:That I got culted by BF N2, not N1,
Replace "BF" with "someone that may or may not be BoomFrog" and yes, this is one of my theories.
Madge wrote:and that we got cult chat
And this is the opposite of one of my theories.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby Madge » Mon Aug 20, 2018 3:34 am UTC

So you think I was a cult member trying to communicate with my cult leader that i was mediator without using chat since cult doesn't have chat?

I don't know what i can possibly say to that. It's wine all the way down. I assure you, though, that if I was culted I wouldn't have been so blatant about that. Why would it be important for me to tell my cult leader my role? I've never played as a cult member (at least not as far as I can remember), I can only imagine my job as a cult member would be to lay low and protect other members from being voted out, right? What would breadcrumbing have possibly accomplished? I'd have been better off just quietly roleblocking bessie if cult would be scared of that or saying to heck with my power and voting strategically.

Anyway, hope you enjoyed that wine. I really don't think there's anything scummy I could have accomplished with that post, but I also knwo you're never going to let it down, so I'm going to check out of this debate unless someone else wants me to comment on something in specific.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Aug 20, 2018 4:04 am UTC

Despite what I feel about game-balance (and I have been wrong many times about that subject) I think that cult is the most likely explanation simply because we haven't seen any evidence for a second killing power and it's been 3 nights already. Of course in theory it could be as simple as a single anti-town indie remaining but e.g. Lyncher seems unlikely given scum's secondary win-cons.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby bessie » Mon Aug 20, 2018 6:52 am UTC

Hmm, I find both Madge’s and Sabrar’s last posts ... interesting.

Mark_Cangila, why did you decide to watch BoomFrog?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby bessie » Mon Aug 20, 2018 6:59 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:That's a good theory, but why did she ask to be copped N1 then recind N2? If she was a GF SK she would want to be copped still.
Yeah, why would someone feel comfortable being copped one night, and the next night suddenly they don't want to be copped any more? What possibly could have happened that would cause the change? And nice how you made sure to stick GF in there.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:10 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:That's a good theory, but why did she ask to be copped N1 then recind N2? If she was a GF SK she would want to be copped still.


Asking for people to target you is all WIFOM, so I don't really put any particular weight on that point on way or the other. My suspicion is her actual reason for doing so may be that she can only have one power at a time and if someone else targets her it may overwrite the previous power.

bessie wrote:Also in my mind is that at the end of D2, Vicarin doesn’t make a self preservation vote and move from me to wam. Is he hoping someone else will move to me? (Sabrar, heury, BoomFrog)


FWIW, I think the end of day sequence pretty conclusively points to a Vic/wam team. If they weren't aligned, I don't see why Vic wouldn't have pushed the lynch for wam, or wam for Vic. More interesting to me leading up to the end of day is the discussion around No Lynch.

Relevant posts here:
Spoiler:
LaserGuy wrote:If we don't lynch Vicarin, I'd probably go for No Lynch at this point. I might do wam in a pinch, but the other options are better IMHO.

BoomFrog wrote:Why throw away our chance at an extra lynch if we get an extra save? Why not lynch wam? You must have more then one scum pick right? Why do you think Sabrar is town?

Sabrar wrote:Vote: wam

Vicarin wrote:In general, seeing as noone has claimed responsibility for the roleblock by now, I'm worried about what's going to happen if it's a scum roleblocker.

BoomFrog wrote:I've been assuming the roleblocker was town, but Vic raises a valid concern.

I guess we need to lynch Cop. No actually LaserGuy was right. If we no lynch scum are forced to resolve the issue or let a cop (or 2) live. If the doc gets a save we are gaining valuable cop results. If the roleblocker is town even better, they could save a cop by hitting scum.

We earned a no lynch and this is a good use of it.

heuristically_alone wrote:I'd be willing to no lynch and see if scum kills a cop.

Sabrar wrote:I'm pro-NL if we can get consensus.

wam wrote:I'm against a nl but will read read the logic posted above and come back.

LaserGuy wrote:I agree that this looks like the best play at the moment.

Vote: NL

Sabrar wrote:@all: Please lynch wam. Pushing secondary win-con before figuring out whether it's a good idea for the primary one is so anti-town I can't even begin to describe it.

LaserGuy wrote:This is a very good point.

Unvote
Vote: wam

Madge wrote:i am down with the NL consensus, but I would prefer not to vote due to paranoia about that opening me up to be targets for Bad Things before I can finish with my own stuff. I think that means we can't cause NL unless nobody votes - or can we vote NL as a "person" and get an NL that way?

Sabrar wrote:However I no longer support NL for today. We can do it tomorrow.

Vicarin wrote:I'm going to sleep soon, so I'm just going to leave my vote as is. I think bessie is still the best choice, followed by mpolo and Madge, but if we can't do any of those, I'd like the NL option.

BoomFrog wrote:@Vic: Bessie, mpolo and Madge aren't going to happen at this point. You might as well move your vote to NL now to give it a chance.

BoomFrog wrote:I'd rather no lynch then lynch wam, but Vic sabotaged any chance of that happening.

heuristically_alone wrote:Unvote
Vote: No Lynch

LaserGuy wrote:Tied vote doesn't go to No Lynch. Who is up if wam/bessie/Vic are tied?
Will be switching my vote to Vicarin at deadline if there isn't a clear leader.

wam wrote:unvote

Vote no lynch

heury wrote:LaserGuy, I didnt see you take a vote off wam. If you vote no lynch now that will be the winning vote.

LaserGuy wrote:I wasn't planning on unvoting him. I'm not sure if I want to No Lynch at this point because the way that this has happened seems very shady to me.

heury wrote:Also if we aren't no lynching, Im switching back to wam.

heury wrote:unvote
Vote: wam

Mostly this all comes back to BoomFrog, I think. Between Boom's first two posts in this sequence, two things happen: Sabrar decisively pushes for a wam lynch, and Vic makes the quoted comment about the roleblocker. Now, as I noted in my earlier post, I'm skeptical that BoomFrog would be considering a Town!RB here as he's supposedly Town!RB himself, and that in all of his considerations of the two cop situation, a scum!RB hadn't crossed his mind. After this, BoomFrog pushes NL for the rest of the day phase, which came pretty close to passing... may well have done so had end of day been in a different time zone, actually. If wam/Vic have a buddy here, I think it's almost certainly BoomFrog for pushing the counterwagon to both scum.

bessie wrote:I did not understand what LaserGuy was asking for here. I thought he was asking if I left Wheel of Time flavor breadcrumbs on D1. I did not. My answer was because I’ve been roleplaying macho cop and overconfident logician. LaserGuy, is there anything in particular you would still like answered?

I wasn't specifically looking for breadcrumbs. More I was expecting something of the form: "I am White Ajah; I have a ter'angrael that allows me to detect people who can lie". I have some incoherent thoughts on the setup that I think I can tease out from the flavor. May talk about these later, or maybe not.

bessie wrote:Unmafia. Two cop situation. N0 Misnomer got a mafia result on Latero, Latero counterclaimed cop (town result on Madge). The most frustrating game mechanic ever - no flips. There were probably others but I’m not going through old games in search of one.

I had no doubt you'd be able to pull up an example of this :) But it's from 2014 so I think my point here is still valid in terms of the rarity of this scenario.

bessie wrote:If Vicarin suspected BoomFrog was mediator since D2, why did he kill heury for being roleblocker? The choice of heury is still confusing me. Is it possible the kill was not who scum intended to kill?


Well, Vic is ninja so he doesn't care about Mark. If Vic is the only member left in his faction, he doesn't care about you because confirming you as Town basically confirms him as scum. He does care about being blocked since he can't complete his kill if he is. He knows it isn't me, because I was roleblocked. Probably not Sabrar or Madge given their claims already. PoE leaves BoomFrog, mpolo, heury. He claimed he redirected heury N1 and that was what prompted this kill, but that's probably not true (Vic later claimed bessie as redirected to Mark, but that also may not be true). I suppose this is the kind of post that might indicate the Town!RB though. I dunno, I guess I can see the logic here (this argument holds also for scum!BF as third partner), though choosing heury over Boom for kill is still dicey as scum surely could have figured out Boom was probably a mediator or something similar... wam was in Secret Santa after all.

So Vic kills probably the weakest Town role and just gives up here? I don't know. It's possible.

I think this is where the evidence is pointing so I'm just going to go with it.

Vote: BoomFrog

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby mpolo » Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:59 am UTC

Flavor theory about cult: maybe the cult leader is a Foresaken who can only recruit people who are secretly Black Ajah. Since we had one flip of a secretly Black Sister. That would put me in a certain danger of recruitment, so I don't like my theory, but it would balance a cult for the small game somewhat.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby Madge » Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:55 am UTC

bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:That's a good theory, but why did she ask to be copped N1 then recind N2? If she was a GF SK she would want to be copped still.
Yeah, why would someone feel comfortable being copped one night, and the next night suddenly they don't want to be copped any more? What possibly could have happened that would cause the change? And nice how you made sure to stick GF in there.


Feel free to cop me, then!

And I actually said in my post, "don't feel obliged to cop me because, as a result of my D1 claim, you think it'll help town any more than copping me normally would" - I was careful not to discourage people from copping me because I actually do want to be copped so I can find out other peoples alignments.

mpolo and boomfrog and mark are my vote list people today. we've had good success with our targets and (perhaps) good luck with our protecs, so we can afford to get one wrong if it comes to that. I think it's more likely we've had good luck than we have a scummy doctor but i wouldn't put anything past jimbob, so...
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Aug 20, 2018 1:50 pm UTC

If there is cult then I believe they have 2 members max at the moment (or it will be obvious shortly that I'm wrong). It is entirely possible that they have limitations on how many times they can recruit, though I doubt it's actually limited to specific players. Only Madge and Mark could have attempted to recruit Vicarin N1 (assuming no second Ninja), assuming it failed bessie would have been the most logical target N2 and coincidentally the same two players targeted bessie N2 as well. Unless CL is GF in which case they are not that interested in recruiting a Cop, rather they want to recruit people who have been already cleared by said Cop, meaning BoomFrog N2 or LaserGuy N3.

If it's a single indie then best bet (based purely on presumed powers) is Madge.

If it's a third member of the original scum-team then it must be BoomFrog.

Is it MYLO/LYLO for Town?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 20, 2018 1:57 pm UTC

bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:That's a good theory, but why did she ask to be copped N1 then recind N2? If she was a GF SK she would want to be copped still.
Yeah, why would someone feel comfortable being copped one night, and the next night suddenly they don't want to be copped any more? What possibly could have happened that would cause the change? And nice how you made sure to stick GF in there.

I was rebutting the case that Madge was Cult Leader. Yes the above does fit cult recruit. However, I have a very good read on Madge and I believed her motivation for asking to be copped, then not, was exactly what she just posted. So either I am scum and lying or Madge was town D1 and D2. Throw out other scenarios they are a waste of time to consider.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 20, 2018 2:42 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Now, as I noted in my earlier post, I'm skeptical that BoomFrog would be considering a Town!RB here as he's supposedly Town!RB himself, and that in all of his considerations of the two cop situation, a scum!RB hadn't crossed his mind. After this, BoomFrog pushes NL for the rest of the day phase, which came pretty close to passing... may well have done so had end of day been in a different time zone, actually. If wam/Vic have a buddy here, I think it's almost certainly BoomFrog for pushing the counterwagon to both scum.

So... I was mostly assuming the RBer was town because I saw you as likely scummy and didn't think scum would RB you. Also, I knew the RBer had to be Heauy or mpolo both of whom I had a town read on. Even with mpolo's claim being super similar to my power, he just seems to be using as best as he can for town and his concern about being a miller seems sincere. Most importantly, this was an excuse to act on my hidden knowledge that there were 2-3 town roleblockers and we had a very high chance of stopping the kill and preserving the cop(s).

Anyway, the theory that I am 3rd mafia doesn't make sense, there'd be no reason for me to be actually a doctor and there's no reason for madge to lie in that scenario. The theory that I am cult leader and GF ( or got lucky that wam redirect bessie) does make sense and I don't think I can convince you otherwise.

@Sabrar: Why are you not convinced that I am cult leader? All the evidence should be pointing to that from your perspective.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Aug 20, 2018 2:43 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Is it MYLO/LYLO for Town?
MYLO/LYLO will not be revealed.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 20, 2018 2:44 pm UTC

@LaserGuy: Why are you not considering Sabrar cult leader?
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 20, 2018 2:44 pm UTC

@Mark: what do you think is going on?
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Aug 20, 2018 2:47 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:@Sabrar: Why are you not convinced that I am cult leader? All the evidence should be pointing to that from your perspective.
The main 'evidence' would be Vicarin's word only and I do not trust that. Everything else is circumstantial.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Aug 20, 2018 5:22 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote: Most importantly, this was an excuse to act on my hidden knowledge that there were 2-3 town roleblockers and we had a very high chance of stopping the kill and preserving the cop(s).


You thought that Town would have three roleblockers and scum wouldn't have a strongman? :|

Madge was third in your D1 lynch pool. If you thought she was an absorber D1, why weren't you more concerned about giving scum!her your power?

BoomFrog wrote:Also, I knew the RBer had to be Heauy or mpolo both of whom I had a town read on.


Why roleblock heury N2 then if you had him as Town? Why not me? Or protect Madge?

BoomFrog wrote:Anyway, the theory that I am 3rd mafia doesn't make sense, there'd be no reason for me to be actually a doctor and there's no
reason for madge to lie in that scenario.


I believe your claim that you are mediator. I just don't think it implies that you are Town. Crossover had a mafia doctor despite Town having basically no killing powers, so I'm somewhat disabused of the notion that means anything.

@LaserGuy: Why are you not considering Sabrar cult leader?


I think it's less likely than you or Madge being scum.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D3)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:17 pm UTC

Votals:

BoomFrog (1): LaserGuy

Not Voting: Mark_Cangila, Sabrar, Madge, mpolo, BoomFrog, bessie

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline is 21:00 UTC, Wednesday, 22nd August. Deadline timer.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:41 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:@Sabrar: Why are you not convinced that I am cult leader? All the evidence should be pointing to that from your perspective.
The main 'evidence' would be Vicarin's word only and I do not trust that. Everything else is circumstantial.

What do you think of my behavior D2 and my conclusions on aiming roleblocks d3?
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D4)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:45 pm UTC

I haven't it analized it yet what I noticed however is that you make this read and defend it twice. Early D4 you realize after I point it out that me being CL does not make sense and you even go so far as saying you don't think there's recruitment.
Now suddenly we're back to you pushing me as CL. What's up with that?


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