Wams chaos game day 5

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Sabrar
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:17 am UTC

Yeah, this is leading nowhere. People need to post more. Plus scum has probably role-copped me anyway.

TESTING... TESTING... THIS IS A DRILL... I REPEAT, THIS IS A DRILL

Kill: plytho

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:18 am UTC

THIS IS NOT A DRILL... THIS IS LIVE...

Kill:moody7277:William Shatner

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Madge » Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:28 am UTC

If this works, Sabrar was clearly fishing my role name so he could kill me, because I'm onto him.

If he kills moody and moody flips scum, remember that I was right. i'm right about Sabrar too!
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:31 am UTC

Sure...

Scum day-vig...

Sure...

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Madge » Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:37 am UTC

Scum day-vig sounds like CHAOS to me?
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby plytho » Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:11 am UTC

Assuming killing me was fake, this is a great development.

@Sabrar: when do you expect the flip?
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:12 am UTC

As soon as wam comes online.
Of course if moody lied about his role-name then nothing will happen but we can safely lynch him knowing we got actual scum.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby wam » Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:19 am UTC

Votals

Moody7277 - 1 - Madge

Not voting:Sabrar, Moody7277, Plytho, Somitomi, Mpolo

Deadline Tuesday evening uk time.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:26 am UTC

So moody lied. wam promised me some flavour about the kill not succeeding, will post after I get it if people want.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby plytho » Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:27 am UTC

Well, that's pretty clear. Moody is scum. (Unless Sabrar is putting on a monster scum play to lynch the indie, but I don't see the motive as scum!Sabrar seems pretty comfortable in the indie!moody scenario.)
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:48 am UTC

wam wrote:You line-up William Shatner against the wall and put a bullet in his head. Unfortunately on examination you realise it's a cardboard cutout. It definitely doesn't over act enough

your kill did not succeed

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby somitomi » Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:58 am UTC

:shock:
Madge wrote:If he kills moody and moody flips scum, remember that I was right. i'm right about Sabrar too!

Those two are independent things. You being right about moody doesn't mean you're right about Sabrar too.
plytho wrote:Well, that's pretty clear. Moody is scum. (Unless Sabrar is putting on a monster scum play to lynch the indie, but I don't see the motive as scum!Sabrar seems pretty comfortable in the indie!moody scenario.)

I guess that settles it.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby plytho » Fri Sep 21, 2018 12:03 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
wam wrote:You line-up William Shatner against the wall and put a bullet in his head. Unfortunately on examination you realise it's a cardboard cutout. It definitely doesn't over act enough

your kill did not succeed

Did you get a response for this?
Sabrar wrote:Kill: plytho
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Sep 21, 2018 12:05 pm UTC

It wasn't a valid action, so it generated no feedback.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Sep 21, 2018 12:11 pm UTC

Btw I feel better about plytho, he seems like actually trying to figure things out, while Madge is just on a personal warpath without any other content.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Madge » Fri Sep 21, 2018 12:28 pm UTC

It's unlike me, isn't it?
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Sep 21, 2018 12:32 pm UTC

Yes, I've been saying it since D1.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Madge » Fri Sep 21, 2018 12:55 pm UTC

I don't like having this conversation with you. You know I know you're scum, because I've even told you what team you're on, and it's probably scared you shitless, which is why you tried to find my name to try and kill me.

But you keep tempting me to talk with you, and I know you're a better arguer than me so I'm going to end up coming out second best. I need to stop, but I love the sound of my own voice too much to do it. And I'm desperately trying to find something to do, some way to help town. And I don't know what I could do to convince others.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:04 pm UTC

I was always going to use my kill on moody today because we needed that resolution. Having another name for tomorrow would have been nice as it either outs a false-claim or gives us 2 opportunities to lynch during a single day. It was not specifically targeted at you, I would have been fine with knowing plytho's as well.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Madge » Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:25 pm UTC

You probably don't actually want to kill me, anyway, because once i flip town people will start wondering if maybe they should have trusted poor Cassandra after all. And then maybe you'll get your comeuppance.

(no, Cassandra isn't my rolename; I'm vanilla town, that's a free denial for you).
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:29 pm UTC

So you're saying that I shouldn't even attempt to vig you tomorrow, even though it would get us closer to winning?

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby mpolo » Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:39 pm UTC

It seems to me that the italics in our roles are exceptionally important. I think it unlikely that moody would so perfectly simulate a role PM that make sense in this game for the role he's claiming. Since he had no other PMs to go by. Or are you saying he have us a real italic text and a bold text that he made up?

I don't like the kill attempt when we are probably already at MYLO.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:50 pm UTC

There were two possibilities:
1. moody is lying scum: in that case kill does nothing but gives us the first correct lynch without any doubt.
2. moody is telling the truth: in that case he is anti-town given our win-con. We would be at LYLO, having to lynch correctly twice in a row (not that different from MYLO).

In short resolving the situation would never worsen our position.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:13 pm UTC

@plytho: what are your current thoughts?

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby plytho » Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:18 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@plytho: what are your current thoughts?


town
mpolo: Doesn't have a lot of D3 content and hasn't proven his claimed power but it's easily testable and very townie. (it's an insane amount of power to give to scum). I also feel his absence D2 gives him a fresh look at everything. I like how he's not just accepting the common view on Madge and moody.

Sabrar: I'm convinced Sabrar isn't mafia. The only thing that could change my mind is if moody flips William Shatner tomorrow. (What we know from) his role is odd, though. Given the mod-declared caution for claiming rolenames it feels like the most likely nameclaimers would be town. On the other hand, that's still a kind of mislynch you don't pay for with night kills.

somitomi: Seems to be quietly floating along, not doing anything controversial.


Madge: I'm pretty sure Madge is the other scum.

This line is very manipulative:
Madge wrote:DO you want me to learn from this game that even if I have reads (AND CORRECT READS, I would proverbially eat my proverbial hat if I'm wrong about BOTH moody and Sabrar, and I give myself an 80% chance of being right about the scum team they are on, let alone my confidence of their alignment) - do you want me to learn that even THAT is not good enough and I need more than just "The vibe of the Thing" to get out of it?
I think this is Madge manipulating us into thinking she's town.

Madge, you know we can't just trust you at your word that you've got the correct reads this game, even if you do. You also know that learning is a process and if you're right about moody and Sabrar this game you will take the fact that you were right as the lesson and not the fact that we didn't believe you. In the same vein we will learn that you play this way as town and will be more likely to trust you in future games.

Expecting these changes to happen right now in this very game is either incredible naïeve or deliberately misleading and I don't think you're naïeve.

moody: got caught by Sabrar's vig.
scum


Note: I'm not entirely done with this list. I just wrote that line on somitomi based on gut feeling, and I want to take a better look at your posts beyond the power.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby plytho » Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:40 pm UTC

plytho wrote:Note: I'm not entirely done with this list. I just wrote that line on somitomi based on gut feeling, and I want to take a better look at your posts beyond the power.
I'm going to do these things later tonight so don't expect them soon.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby moody7277 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:16 pm UTC

So this is another Death Note game. That would explain the warning against role names. More when I have a real keyboard.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby mpolo » Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:36 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:There were two possibilities:
1. moody is lying scum: in that case kill does nothing but gives us the first correct lynch without any doubt.
2. moody is telling the truth: in that case he is anti-town given our win-con. We would be at LYLO, having to lynch correctly twice in a row (not that different from MYLO).

.


Or
3. He really is a survivor who can win with town. His PM sparkly says that he breaks the rules to survive, which gives at least a possibility that he is telling the truth. Maybe I'm the only one seeing this because of my experience with my own role PM, which I'm not going to write out here, but which was more or less like this: (all names and text were changed in a bid for self-preservation.)

You are General Douglas MacArthur. The strange actions going on around you are disturbing, but you can always fall back on your motto: "I shall return".

Then the normal town win-con.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby mpolo » Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:37 pm UTC

Don't ask how Gboard turned explicitly into sparkly.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:51 pm UTC

wam wrote:Everything in bold is guaranteed to be true, everything else is fair game
You may think otherwise but I do not find it likely that wam would break his own main rule.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby mpolo » Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:46 pm UTC

My bold text said that I was vanilla town. In so many words.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:03 pm UTC

Then I do not agree with the mod's decision and I'll leave it at that.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby moody7277 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:58 pm UTC

Well, this would give a reason Sabrar's been role fishing people. Kind of glad now that I fibbed about Kirk (had Star Trek on the mind when I made that PM, so it kind of followed easy enough). Sorry to mpolo that he's come to the right decision through flawed premises; my doubts about you have been terminated. I'd feel like I owe an apology to Madge too but for two things, she's still totally scum, and there is some doubt as to whether that power being in scum hands is reasonable.

You are not justice, Sabrar! (even though it's still a coin flip that you're town)
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby plytho » Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:36 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
plytho wrote:Note: I'm not entirely done with this list. I just wrote that line on somitomi based on gut feeling, and I want to take a better look at your posts beyond the power.
I'm going to do these things later tonight so don't expect them soon.

Yeah, this didn't happen, sorry :oops:
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby plytho » Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:40 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:Well, this would give a reason Sabrar's been role fishing people. Kind of glad now that I fibbed about Kirk (had Star Trek on the mind when I made that PM, so it kind of followed easy enough). Sorry to mpolo that he's come to the right decision through flawed premises; my doubts about you have been terminated. I'd feel like I owe an apology to Madge too but for two things, she's still totally scum, and there is some doubt as to whether that power being in scum hands is reasonable.

You are not justice, Sabrar! (even though it's still a coin flip that you're town)


Didn't you say you wanted to help town catch scum? If you'd claimed your actual rolename you'd have actually helped us a lot more.

Also, what does this mean: "I'd feel like I owe an apology to Madge too but for two things, she's still totally scum, and there is some doubt as to whether that power being in scum hands is reasonable."
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby moody7277 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:15 pm UTC

1. If I had given my true name right when Sabrar asked, I'd be dead and you'd still have two scum to find and one less person to vote them off. As I recall, role-fishing is one of the cardinal sins against town, and Kira!Sabrar is doing it right and left.

2a. Madge has been anti-Sabrar at least all of D3, maybe some of D2, and now seems to have a darn good reason to be. Therefore me being grumpy at her for that behavior may have been uncalled for. I'm still sure she's scum though, and scum get no apologies, only rope.

2b. The second part is whether giving scum a second trickier kill is in the bounds of possibility. Town having a tricky public vig that requires a true name sounds like it fits in the game better.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Madge » Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:46 pm UTC

Moody knows I'm right, realises he needs to get the other scum killed, and wants to see if town can do it for him. He and Sabrar probably both want to vote me off today so that way when I flip they can target the other person, bringing themselves to endgame. That's why they're all of a sudden being so weird about me. They know I'm right because they're scared that I figured out their alignment.

I don't need you guys to believe me next game, I need you to believe me this game, because if you listen to me, I think we'll win (unless I'm wrong, and you know, that's always a possibility. But I'd be extremely surprised).

I'm really frustrated because I don't think anyone's open-minded enough to believe me if I do come up with a case. I worry that because I'm bad at coming up with cases, I'll just make myself look worse instead of making my case look better. I especially worry that Sabrar in particular is clever and will be able to talk rings around me. I also know that because I'm just picking up on a vibe, there's not like a post where Sabrar and moody write in tiny font "i'm scum btw lol" that I can point out and everyone will believe me; so it'll probably be the same stupid bullshit that scum!Madge would have found to defend herself. So what's even the point. Believe me or not. Moody and Sabrar both have a kill. If moody isn't scum, plytho probably is, but I think sabrar isn't scum.

I want full claims to analyse before I die, if you're going to kill me. Dayvig is plenty scummy assuming a chaos game.

It's so obvious to me that Sabrar is scum especially with how he's acting today, but I can't go into any more detail than that.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby Madge » Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:48 pm UTC

ugh EBWOP

Madge wrote:If moody isn't scum, plytho probably is, but I think sabrar isn't scum.


should be

Madge who isn't posting first thing in the morning before her hot drink wrote:If moody isn't scum, plytho probably is, but I think plytho isn't scum.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby moody7277 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:32 pm UTC

bessie on Madge:

Some of her opening posts (1,2) defending Madge are in the silly opening phase of the game, so might be dismissed. Reads post (3) dismisses Madge as being "Madge-like". Madge was NOT being Madge-like, whether to try to get over her usual D1 blues, or for other reasons is not the point. She spent the rest of D1 tunnelling Vicarin. Concerned about why plytho decided against Madge in favor of Vicarin (4) (cyincal view here: bessie was worried about how easy it'd be for plytho to go back to voting Madge). In response to Sabrar's offer, says she's okay with Madge being the second part of the deal along with a reasonable second choice (4). Despite Sabrar's insistence, I'm not sure how we were taking his offer at the time, so this may have been bessie trying to look townie at this point. Asking Madge to do better, and trying to calm her down about others seeing her as scummy (5) (ideallistic view here: bessie's a nice person and would do this for anyone, regardless of alignment). Second reads post (6) where she expresses frustration with Madge's insistence on claiming VT and scum reads her. Would seem to be a point against the theory except that bessie never actually votes for Madge.


1. http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=125100#p4388090
2. http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=125100#p4388095
3. http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=125100#p4388757
4. http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=125100#p4390443
5. http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=125100#p4390648
6. http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=125100&p4390743
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 3

Postby moody7277 » Sat Sep 22, 2018 12:35 am UTC

So, Sabrar, maybe plytho, believe that we're in 4-1-1, and you can deal with scum piece-wise in standard fashion. Madge is also insisting on it, but I really don't care about her opinion at this point. The real situation is this:

3(town)-1(Madge)-1(player X)-1(me)

Lynch me, you go to 3-1-1, and the probably vain hope that scum kill eachother. Most likely is that you end up in the standard 2-1 endgame. If you feel you can pull it off from there, after everyone left alive will have been slimed all to hell, more power to you. There's also the strong possibility that two townies get killed, and the 1-1-1 situation you have dreaded comes to pass. Trying to figure probablilties at this point is almost useless since the kills will certainly not be random.

If you don't lynch me, the situation is 3-1-1 but with only one kill. Obviously, that leads to 2-1-1 because scum isn't going to kill an obvious mislynch. At that point if Sabrar is still alive, and not player X, he'll get my true name and you can kill me and player X for a town win.

By the time you realize how wrong you were, it will be too late.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.


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