Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 3 - An Unexpected Twist)

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Sabrar
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:56 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:Mark is lurky, but he's been a bit less lurky. Also, he's pretty much always been lurky in every game he's been in. Unless you've got any particular reason to go for him on D1, then other people are way better as lynches realistically. There's been a ton of blatantly weird scummy behaviour this game.
That does nothing to explain your 'vague town-feeling' on him.

Vicarin wrote:Why those? If you're strongly convinced you've got the entire scum team in {Vicarin,bessie,Mark}, then why would they be suspicious?
You've got to be kidding...
I feel strongly about my current scum-team. HOWEVER if I'm wrong then you 3 are probably all town and I will have to look at elsewhere for scum. How does one exclude the other in your opinion?

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Vicarin » Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:03 am UTC

How likely, as a percentage, would you say it is that you've got the correct scum team right now?

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Sabrar
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:13 am UTC

If I rely solely on my own reads then about 85%. If I take into account the opinion of others then around 30%.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:17 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:If I rely solely on my own reads then about 85%. If I take into account the opinion of others then around 30%.

how about if you take into account your previous success rate at picking the whole scum team day one? And your previous feelings of confidence on those days before you found out the results.
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Vicarin » Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:19 am UTC

You know that a good rate of picking out 1 scum in this setup would probably be about 40% right (seeing as chance would be 27%)? And you think you'd have a 85% success rate of picking out the entire 3 person scum team?

BoomFrog wrote:
Sabrar wrote:If I rely solely on my own reads then about 85%. If I take into account the opinion of others then around 30%.

how about if you take into account your previous success rate at picking the whole scum team day one? And your previous feelings of confidence on those days before you found out the results.


This, exactly. If you don't remember your previous confidences, do it this game, for future games, so you know how to calibrate your likelihoods properly.

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Sabrar
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:25 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:how about if you take into account your previous success rate at picking the whole scum team day one? And your previous feelings of confidence on those days before you found out the results.
I caught the whole team in WoT3. I had some good D1 reads in Chaos. My past two games actually give me confidence.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:26 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:You know that a good rate of picking out 1 scum in this setup would probably be about 40% right (seeing as chance would be 27%)? And you think you'd have a 85% success rate of picking out the entire 3 person scum team?
This is sooo incorrect. It ignores entirely the connections observed between members of the scum team. How is logician!Vicarin not considering that?

Now let me work on my reply to Zen, for god's sake.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Vicarin » Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:41 am UTC

If by "caught the whole scum team in WoT3", you mean "pushed the D1 lynch onto me forcing me to fake claim despite being on your team, and then pushed it onto wam D2 because you were so goddamn sure that BoomFrog was my teammate". I guess that would have been a good example if you hadn't been a traitor?

Lo and behold, from the depths of Gojoe:
D1:
Sabrar wrote:WoT3
Spoiler:
It's time to save moody, my biggest scum-read. :roll:
Also Vicarin is much more likely to be town, moody could be buddies with any number of people.

D2:
Sabrar wrote:WoT3
Spoiler:
So yeah. BoomFrog is Vicarin's buddy (and probably is GF given that bessie must have checked him), he would be all over him otherwise.
Having serious doubts about claiming the bullet-proof today, it takes away Vicarin's 'out' of lucky roleblock preventing the kill on him. But I have to be careful with my content so I remain consistent whether or not I claim it later and this is difficult to do.

@future!bessie: no hard feelings, right? :)

Late edit: turns out as soon as I know who my buddies are I lose all ability to appear to be effectively scum-hunting. :(


For Chaos, I give this:

Sabrar wrote:Townie-group so far is {bessie, somitomi} with {BoomFrog, Mark, plytho} most likely to get an invitation next. moody is looking somewhat townie aside from general scumminess coming from being moody. No data on {heury, jimbob}.


Aside from plytho, who you said in Gojoe was actually a very early scum read for you (I'll be charitable and assume you're lying about him in the above), you have 3 scum out of 4 people going into the townie group, along with moody, who was also scum. And then you pushed for my lynch, when I was town. Colour me not impressed.

As to observed connections, connections between people happen all the time. Are you saying that we're the only triplet of players connected? If not, what's your likelihood for your strongest single scum read in the three of us (presumably bessie).

You want to work on the reply to Zen, go nuts, but stop poking me and making grandiose proclamations then. Your track record is clearly not as good as you thought it was.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:44 am UTC

Zenii wrote:@Sabrar what about plytho is pinging you? Also, please thoroughly explain your Boom read.

plytho: the whole line with 'Hoo boy' from here. Wording on comment wrt bessie here. Hedging his read on BoomFrog in both. The way he repeats that he doesn't agree with mpolo having a townie-slip (the first one was okay, the second unnecessary).

BoomFrog: his early content is consistent with someone misreading the setup and cannot be explained otherwise. Due to pre-game scum-chat he might have been made aware of the mistake and could have decided to let it ride, I imagine the conversation would have been along these lines:
Spoiler:
BoomFrog: I see we have an average number of scum, will be at least fair game.
Scum-buddy1: what do you mean average?
BoomFrog: well we could have ended up with 5. Or just 1.
Scum-buddy1: what are you talking about? Setup is 9-3.
BoomFrog: Yes, because mod drew 3 spades.
Scum-buddy2: read the rules, mod was always drawing 3 spades.
BoomFrog: Oh wow, how have I missed that?
...
BoomFrog: hey, I've got an idea. I will maintain the facade that I misread the rules to possibly get townie-points and maybe claim later that it was a gambit, please don't comment on those things as we want to avoid forced interactions and I'm sure others will pick up on it.
However an extended pre-game conversation like that is unlikely because most players (BoomFrog included) don't subscribe to the quick-topic and therefore will only check it once in a while. What I don't see happening is BoomFrog misreading that comment, not realizing it AND still make that post about the mod-kills as scum.

I don't agree with the reasoning for his serious vote on SuperJedi (I think that type of read should rely heavily on the specific player's past content which we don't have for a newbie). But that is a standard town!BF reason (though probably easily duplicated as scum). I liked this post very much, especially his thoughts in the second paragraph. I didn't for a second think that he was referring to himself here and his subsequent explanation is consistent once again with town!BF, especially the part where he expects others to have noticed it as well.
After that I stopped analyzing him in detail though this again was coming from the right mind-set (which helped alleviate my concern from the ping I got from this due to the overly detailed explanation). I had no new pings ever since.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:49 am UTC

@Vicarin: for WoT3 you are missing this. I was actually scum-hunting, hoping to get it wrong. My bottom 3 had both scum and moody who has just a scummy meta.
For Chaos I'm referring to bessie and plytho (both in Gojoe). You should not take anything in-thread as honest.

And yet you continue to misrepresent me and downplay my achievements. And you wonder why I think you're scum...

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:51 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:Are you saying that we're the only triplet of players connected?
Triplet? Yes. Go show me any 3 other players who have even a third of the connection of what you have.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:12 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Vicarin wrote:Mark is lurky, but he's been a bit less lurky. Also, he's pretty much always been lurky in every game he's been in. Unless you've got any particular reason to go for him on D1, then other people are way better as lynches realistically. There's been a ton of blatantly weird scummy behaviour this game.
That does nothing to explain your 'vague town-feeling' on him.
You must have skipped this.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Vicarin » Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:23 am UTC

For WoT3 it's right there. You thought moody was more likely to be scum, and then on D2, you were so sure that BoomFrog was scum that you immediately assumed he was a godfather rather than change your read. Getting 2 people wrong when you're claiming an 85% confidence on the scum team this game is unacceptable.

If you're going to say that for Chaos, then I've got no way of checking your numbers if it's not in Gojoe (why not use an example of a game where I can just check how your reads were in thread, because you were town?). Oh look though:

Sabrar wrote:wamaos mafia
Spoiler:
Musings of a Serial Killer

a.k.a. Why BoomFrog has to die


Being SK is hard. Our life is in constant danger from multiple sides, bloodhungry Town is out to lynch us, crafty scum wants to murder us in our sleep. With no protection whatsoever we have to rely on a combination of wine and luck to survive. Knowing that SK is in the game makes multi-ball less likely from our perspective as 3 deaths per night seems a tad too much. Of course this being a bastard game with no real consideration for balance makes any predictions moot but we have to start somewhere.

Our sacred duty is to eliminate everyone around us and this can be only achieved if both sides experience a reduction in their numbers on a similar trend. Assuming an 8-3-1 setup (approximately) this means that we should aim to have 2 townies killed for each scum, hoping to win the endgame with the help of our daykill or by a mislynch. We have to take it as a fact that scum will nk only townies as we simply cannot win if they choose to kill us. Therefore our own kill needs to be used to balance out the sides, killing scum after a mislynch, killing a townie if scum got the axe.

With only a limited number of kills at our disposition we may even want to hold back to avoid being observed however that is mostly a concern for later when there is only a limited number of targets for such powers. Similarly a pesky doc has better chance at blocking our kill at the later stages of the game, so despite the strategic value of withholding to cause confusion it is very possibly a bad avenue to explore. Also 2 kills reinforces the idea of multi-ball.

We planned to nk Vicarin in case Madge gets lynched and just claim Vig D2 (hopefully Vic is scum). We even breadcrumbed it so we could point at it later. Unfortunately that plan is off the rails, though we still might go with an even-night Vig claim (or some other flavor) if the opportunity presents itself.

If we accept the fact that we need to kill contrary to the lynch we need to find someone who is the most likely to not be co-aligned with Vicarin. That is definitely BoomFrog. They are most surely not on the same scum-team and I think town!BoomFrog would not err this much wrt town!Vicarin. In addition the way BoomFrog defended me gives me some creeps/sheep-vibes so in case Vic is actually town I think there is a huge likelihood that BoomFrog is scum.

Last consideration to be had is that we want to avoid targeting players whom scum or actual Vig also wants to kill. Depending on who the Vig is (if s/he exists) the most likely targets would be Madge or mpolo. If Vic is Town scum probably won't kill anyone on his wagon, especially the early wagon. If Vic is scum then there are a lot of juicy targets for them and it becomes impossible to predict their actions, especially without knowing their identity. So we simply have to hope for the best.

Tl;DR:
- We can't be worrying about observer roles catching us or being nk-d as we can't do anything against it anyway.
- We need to kill people on opposing sides.
- We might need the support of some of the stronger players who currently read us as town against those who have their suspicion but this is of less importance right now.
- Withholding seems unwise.
- Therefore we kill BoomFrog N1 and go from there.


You tell me if you were right in this.

For triplets, hmmmm.

Vicarin/bessie/Sabrar
Vicarin/Sabrar/BoomFrog
wam/Zen/BoomFrog
Vicarin/plytho/bessie
BoomFrog/Sabrar/plytho
bessie/moody/SuperJedi

Is that enough to get on with?

For the vague town feeling, yeah. Because it's a vague feeling, like I said. He's gotten fair bit of stuff slightly wrong as usual, which he's done as both town and scum, but he's feeling slightly more like WoT3 than Alien or Chaos. Way better people to poke at right now imo.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:36 am UTC

I was talking about D1, remember? And I never claimed that all my reads were correct in Chaos. What do you think this is if not strawmaning?
Your triplets are ridiculous but I have neither the time nor the inclination to go through them one-by-one. Let's just say that you including yourself at all is something no townie should do and that you're mistaking connections with people attacking each other.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Vicarin » Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:45 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:I was talking about D1, remember? And I never claimed that all my reads were correct in Chaos. What do you think this is if not strawmaning?


You used it as evidence for your amazing ability to pick out the entire scum team with 85% confidence this game. If you had an 85% read accuracy for entire teams, you tell me how many you'd expect to have wrong each game, and then tell me if it matches up with your track record. You're not allowed to randomly backpedal immediately after stating a confidence level like that. Downgrade it, or back it up with some good ol' fashioned evidence.

Sabrar wrote:Your triplets are ridiculous but I have neither the time nor the inclination to go through them one-by-one. Let's just say that you including yourself at all is something no townie should do and that you're mistaking connections with people attacking each other.


Sure, well, nice analysis. And why wouldn't I include myself, I think the triplets idea on D1 is trying to solve the game with not nearly enough information. If you want to strawman me immediately after falsely accusing me of strawmanning, well...

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Vicarin » Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:49 am UTC

The way that you're trying to say that a Gojoe post made during N1 after no flip from the D1 lynch doesn't count as a D1 read (and if anything, should be more accurate than one made during the actual D1 due to more information from the voting patterns) comes across as straw-clutching to me.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:50 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:And why wouldn't I include myself,
Because the triplets idea is about identifying the scum-team through connections and if you were town you wouldn't include yourself. Strange logic, huh?

Vicarin wrote:The way that you're trying to say that a Gojoe post made during N1 after no flip from the D1 lynch doesn't count as a D1 read
I'm not saying that. I say that some of my reads were good, not all. But I have explained this before and you are still strawmaning.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:59 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:If you had an 85% read accuracy for entire teams, you tell me how many you'd expect to have wrong each game, and then tell me if it matches up with your track record. You're not allowed to randomly backpedal immediately after stating a confidence level like that. Downgrade it, or back it up with some good ol' fashioned evidence.
BTW this is the same thing Vicarin tried to do to bessie in WoT3.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:03 am UTC

Votals:

BoomFrog (1): wam
plytho (2): SuperJedi, bessie
bessie (3): Sabrar, plytho, moody
Sabrar (1): Mark
wam (2): Zenii, BoomFrog
SuperJedi (1): Vicarin

Not voting: somitomi*, mpolo

somitomi has requested to be replaced.
mpolo has not yet responded to his mod prod.

Deadline is in about 10 hours. Day phase will not be extended. It's possible I may extend the night a bit to get replacements.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Vicarin » Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:05 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Vicarin wrote:The way that you're trying to say that a Gojoe post made during N1 after no flip from the D1 lynch doesn't count as a D1 read
I'm not saying that. I say that some of my reads were good, not all. But I have explained this before and you are still strawmaning.


85% confidence! You tell me how many you expect to get wrong at that confidence level. If you'd gone "Oh, I think you're the scum team at 20% confidence", sure, but you said 85%. That means that you think there's a less than 15% chance that any of {plytho,wam,Zen} are scum, which means they're actually pretty strong town reads, being significantly less likely to be scum than chance.

Stop calling "pointing out how inconsistent your position is" strawmaning: sometimes, you are just wrong.

On an aside to everyone else: I'm still going with this being really stubborn town Sabrar. Any way to get him to actually consider other positions, seeing as evidence apparently won't do it?

Ninja'd: Hope you've got an example for that?

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby bessie » Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:33 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote: So you suspected something townie about Sabrar but changed to scum lean? I'm just double checking because "suspect" usually means something negative. What made you suspect he was townie originally?
Ok. I suspected Sabrar was a face card because of his Joker thing. I did not understand why he was so sure I should have read something in to his Joker post, and why he’s so sure I am scum because I didn’t. So when I made this post I reevaluated it, and thought that perhaps Sabrar was trying to signal he was a face card. This would fit with Sabrar's idea that scum!bessie would deliberately ignore the confirmation post. That’s why I deliberately tried to steer away from any discussion about actual the meaning of the Joker post in this:
bessie wrote:All I know is that it is the Joker. This particular image is from one of the Batman movies that I have not seen. So if you are trying to reference something that occurred in that film, I won’t get it. And I’m sorry Sabrar that I didn’t acknowledge it with a smiley at least, when I saw it I thought it was clever and funny and NAI because there are no jokers in this game.
I didn’t even remember the name of the film I looked it up after I wrote that and it is “The Dark Knight”. Anyway I was careful to make sure I didn’t allude to anything about “face” or face card and tried to turn away from discussion of power role. Also why I didn’t mention it again here. So powertown!Sabrar should have seen what I was trying to do, but he just kept bringing it up the confirmation post thing. Here is where I changed my mind, that Sabrar was not a power town role and my suspicion was probably wrong. I think town!Sabrar should have suspected that I was trying to avoid discussion of his role.

BoomFrog wrote: Why not vote for Sabrar instead of plytho? What is more scummy about plytho?
Because I think plytho is scummy, and could possibly be partners with Sabrar. I noted two instances where I feel plytho is sheeping Sabrar in this post. My reasoning was that plytho’s sheeping could be a scum tell independent of Sabrar’s alignment. I would vote for either Sabrar or plytho.


Sabrar wrote:You literally called my content light.
Literally?
bessie wrote:His content feels light for Sabrar, but it could just feel that way because wam preempted the anticipated eight page argument in his first post.


Sabrar wrote:You didn't scum-read me yet but it provided a reason. Why else would you state it if not to use it in the future for a read?
Your (mis)interpretation. The reason I am scum reading you has nothing to do with your actual level of content. Or any “light feel” I might have of the content level. Perhaps you need to read this again in the context of your recent lamenting in the past couple games about wanting wam around so that you two could dominate the thread with your debates, and think again about whether or not it was an actual scum accusation.


moody7277 wrote:You know what, I'll say wagon ho on bessie. I just want someone else on her in order to switch so I'm not making a tie.
Ok you want to vote for me. Nice how you fished for support first though.


Taking a break, will be back.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby wam » Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:55 am UTC

@Zen it was just a throwaway jokey comment to remind Vic were in different time zones!

@sabrar how do you know boom doesn't subscribe to quick topics? When was the last time you were both in one?
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:05 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:That means that you think there's a less than 15% chance that any of {plytho,wam,Zen} are scum, which means they're actually pretty strong town reads,
It doesn't mean that and you know it. It means they would be town by POE. It has nothing to do with how strong my read is on them.

Vicarin wrote:Stop calling "pointing out how inconsistent your position is" strawmaning: sometimes, you are just wrong.
No. Those are not evidence that my position is inconsistent, you are putting words in my mouth. That is strawmaning.

Vicarin wrote:Ninja'd: Hope you've got an example for that?
From here:
bessie wrote:You would rather I spend the remainder of D1 on a worthless task that I might fail at (but don't count on it) than working on analysis or reads.


wam wrote:@sabrar how do you know boom doesn't subscribe to quick topics? When was the last time you were both in one?
Crossover (since that I only had chat in Stellaris), I had to prod him to subscribe which he did at the end. I don't expect him to do it on his own.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:14 am UTC

bessie wrote:I suspected Sabrar was a face card because of his Joker thing.
I never thought about a possible connection between the Joker-face and a face-card. If I had I would not have linked to it. I will reconsider this.

bessie wrote:Literally?
Yes. You can hide behind a wordplay but when you're giving out reads then anything you mention that you 'feel' or 'think' should be there because you believe it to be true.

bessie wrote:Perhaps you need to read this again in the context of your recent lamenting in the past couple games about wanting wam around so that you two could dominate the thread with your debates, and think again about whether or not it was an actual scum accusation.
I'm not even sure what you're trying to say here but it was never about 'dominating' the thread even if the result might have been the same.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:17 am UTC

bessie wrote:And I’m sorry Sabrar that I didn’t acknowledge it with a smiley at least, when I saw it I thought it was clever and funny and NAI because there are no jokers in this game.
If you thought it was NAI at first then how did you arrive at the theory that I was signalling to be a face-card? Why would PR!me draw attention to it and force you to post your thoughts?

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Vicarin » Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:21 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Vicarin wrote:That means that you think there's a less than 15% chance that any of {plytho,wam,Zen} are scum, which means they're actually pretty strong town reads,
It doesn't mean that and you know it. It means they would be town by POE. It has nothing to do with how strong my read is on them.


You think it doesn't? Ok, seeing as you can clearly do some statistics: give a quick list of how likely you think each person in the game (other than yourself) is scum (so, a slightly more in depth version of a town to scum list). Make sure you give me, bessie and Mark at least 85% each considering you have that amazing read on us.

Sabrar wrote:
Vicarin wrote:Stop calling "pointing out how inconsistent your position is" strawmaning: sometimes, you are just wrong.
No. Those are not evidence that my position is inconsistent, you are putting words in my mouth. That is strawmaning.


Out of a morbid sense of curiosity: what WOULD you accept as evidence that you're wrong? What would you accept as proving that your position is inconsistent? Because it still looks like you'll just react to anything with accusations of strawmaning from over here.

Sabrar wrote:
Vicarin wrote:Ninja'd: Hope you've got an example for that?
From here:
bessie wrote:You would rather I spend the remainder of D1 on a worthless task that I might fail at (but don't count on it) than working on analysis or reads.


Ah, that's a bummer, I was hoping that you'd have an example beyond bessie accusing me of it, like, me actually saying it. I didn't want her to do that, but she thought that I wanted her to, and I knew I wasn't going to convince her otherwise. Funny how you are using an example of someone else putting words into my mouth when you're accusing me of strawmaning.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby plytho » Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:29 am UTC

bessie wrote: I noted two instances where I feel plytho is sheeping Sabrar in this post.
I'm guessing you are referring to the two times you said "Hmm interesting, just noting this for now."? In that case either you need to pay more attention to what I'm saying or I don't know what sheeping is.

In neither of those cases do I use Sabrar's reasoning as my own or refer to it to motivate a read.
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby plytho » Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:39 am UTC

Mark_Cangila wrote:
plytho wrote:
plytho wrote:
Mark_Cangila wrote:I honestly feel like the conf post issue is a red herring and judt an extension of Vic Sabrar and bessie fighting a lot. The issue is that a conf post analysis can't happen if there are no interesting conf posts. So please, both of you, stop for the time being.
Do you think someone's deliberatly using a red herring? If so, who?
Mark, why aren't you answering?

On it. Sorry. I'm pretty split on this. I don't like this line of questioning from Sabrar. It reminds me of Vicarin's demand that bessie look thru old games in WOT3 I believe. I'm not sure it is deliberate though. I find it suspicious enough for the scum lean above and the vote (Which I am keeping.)
You didn't answer my question. Please do so.
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:41 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:I had some good D1 reads in Chaos.
Sabrar wrote:For Chaos I'm referring to bessie and plytho
Sabrar wrote:And I never claimed that all my reads were correct in Chaos.
So after I post all of these you come back and say:
Vicarin wrote:The way that you're trying to say that a Gojoe post made during N1 after no flip from the D1 lynch doesn't count as a D1 read

Yes, this is clearly strawmaning.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Vicarin » Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:48 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:How likely, as a percentage, would you say it is that you've got the correct scum team right now?


Sabrar wrote:If I rely solely on my own reads then about 85%. If I take into account the opinion of others then around 30%.


Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:how about if you take into account your previous success rate at picking the whole scum team day one? And your previous feelings of confidence on those days before you found out the results.
I caught the whole team in WoT3. I had some good D1 reads in Chaos. My past two games actually give me confidence.


The 85% confidence in the former does not follow from the latter. I have pointed out why. I'm not sure what sort of read accuracy you think would justify a 85% confidence in finding the entire scum team, but it is significantly higher than what you've shown with your examples. To begin with, I'd expect at least an 85% chance of getting each particular person in a game correct first, though this wouldn't be nearly enough by itself.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby plytho » Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:51 am UTC

SuperJedi224 wrote:I guess some of them are helping, anyway.
I'm glad to hear they're helping, although as Vicarin pointed out you're not really answering them.

When I ask what makes moody a slight town lean I expect you to say something like "I like how he pointed out that Zen did X" with a specific X. Instead you just said
SuperJedi224 wrote:I'm actually leaning a bit further on the town side on moody than I was at the time I posted the original list (mainly because he looks the least likely to be scum at this point), but I'm still not entirely convinced.
so, follow up question: what has changed about moody that makes him a stronger town lean? Was there a specific post you liked?

If nothing changed please explain what made him townie in the first place.
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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Vicarin » Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:55 am UTC

@wam: A BoomFrog lynch isn't on the cards here; who are you planning to switch to?

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:56 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:The 85% confidence in the former does not follow from the latter. I have pointed out why. I'm not sure what sort of read accuracy you think would justify a 85% confidence in finding the entire scum team, but it is significantly higher than what you've shown with your examples. To begin with, I'd expect at least an 85% chance of getting each particular person in a game correct first, though this wouldn't be nearly enough by itself.
You overestimate the impact of my past successes/failures on the confidence level of my current reads.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:59 am UTC

Cop/Track bessie/Vicarin/SuperJedi
Shoot Mark/wam

That should clear up a lot

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Vicarin » Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:03 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:how about if you take into account your previous success rate at picking the whole scum team day one? And your previous feelings of confidence on those days before you found out the results.
I caught the whole team in WoT3. I had some good D1 reads in Chaos. My past two games actually give me confidence.


Sabrar wrote:
Vicarin wrote:The 85% confidence in the former does not follow from the latter. I have pointed out why. I'm not sure what sort of read accuracy you think would justify a 85% confidence in finding the entire scum team, but it is significantly higher than what you've shown with your examples. To begin with, I'd expect at least an 85% chance of getting each particular person in a game correct first, though this wouldn't be nearly enough by itself.
You overestimate the impact of my past successes/failures on the confidence level of my current reads.


You were giving the previous games as evidence in the first statement though? It should be pretty obvious that the past successes/failures should be incredibly important on the confidence level of your current reads, as that's the only way to tell that you aren't deluding yourself. If, for example, you felt 50% confident in your D1 lynch in the past 10 games, but when it came to the lynches, you were only correct for 30% of them, then you are being systematically overconfident in your reads.

Ninja'd: Oh sure, give targets for PR roles when we don't know whether there's a rolestopper in the game or not, that'll be great.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby bessie » Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:09 am UTC

Response to this post.

plytho wrote:Two: I was contributing content that wasn’t directly related to the Sabrar-safeclaim-townslip-modquestion. In fact, my question wasn’t directly related to it.
Where? Summary of your content at the time of my accusation:

Post 1: Acceptable confirmation post.
Post 2: RVS Mark, muses on Sabrar’s safe claim comment.
Post 3: Town reads Sabrar for mod question.
Post 4: Opinion on mod’s intent in answer. Town reads Sabrar again for LaserGuy’s response. Restates town read of Sabrar for asking the mod question.
Post 5: Response to wam re Sabrar’s mod question, adds [/paranoia].
Post 6: Response to moody re Sabrar’s safe claim theory.
Post 7: Response to bessie re Sabrar-modquestion.
Post 8: Response to bessie re Sabrar-modquestion-modresponse.
Post 9: Asks bessie to respond to Post 8.


Nine game posts down on page 6:
bessie wrote:plytho – Is busy. Labels Sabrar town over the mod question thing. 100% of plytho's content so far this game has been related to this, and he wants to further discuss it with me (see here). I think plytho would be in a better position to demand content from others if he provided some himself.

See my post summary above for why it appeared to me that 100% of your content at the time I made my accusation was Sabrar-safeclaim-townslip-modquestion related.

Back in a bit.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:11 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:You were giving the previous games as evidence in the first statement though?
No, it was BoomFrog who brought up previous games and I just replied to him because his implication run counter to actual facts. Again, it wasn't me who started off on this tangent.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Vicarin » Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:19 am UTC

The completely relevant tangent of making sure that your confidence level matches how often you get stuff correct? And what he was poking at is supported by facts: you don't have a track record remotely good enough to match 85% confidence in finding the entire scum team.

The downsides of you being overconfident are supported by your attempt to point PRs in order to try to confirm your pet theory. If the appropriate level of confidence you should have in your read is 5%, not 85%, then it's a waste of time to have people aim PRs based on that read.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:19 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:Oh sure, give targets for PR roles when we don't know whether there's a rolestopper in the game or not, that'll be great.
I deliberately avoided talking about what PR results will mean because that will only lead to wine. I have some ideas though. The above comment means absolutely nothing.

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Re: Texas Hold'em Mafia (Day 1)

Postby plytho » Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:21 am UTC

bessie wrote:Where? Summary of your content at the time of my accusation:
Pointing out that you twisted your question in post 8 is indirectly related to Sabrar's stuff. It's just about the first inkling of a read I had on anyone that wasn't Sabrar. I was particularly bothered that you didn't respond precisely because of that.
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