Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (N5)

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D5)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:05 pm UTC

After a couple of hours, it was becoming clear that the Mouse was toying with the party. They’d ended up almost back at the camp. The group stopped and gathered around to discuss what to do.

“I think we should send one of you two off to take on the Beast on your own,” said Sir LaserGuy. “Sure, it didn’t work before, but you are both better than all the others, right?”

The other knights exchanged looks, and rolled their eyes. Sir LaserGuy had been trying to split people off all evening.

“You know, all your badgering has made me realise that you are simply here to cause trouble,” replied Sir bessie.

“Yeah, it’s about time you actually took on a bit of responsibility,” agreed Sir MasterOfAll. “Perhaps you’d like to take on the Mouse yourself?” circling around the other side of the other knight, so that Sir LaserGuy was stood between the two other knights, looking back and forth nervously between the two of them.

Sir MasterOfAll nodded to Sir bessie, and the two leapt on the third knight. Although bigger than the two of them, Sir LaserGuy couldn’t take break free as they took hold of the knight’s limbs, and pinned them to the ground.

Sir Jimbob walked up and offered the pair a piece of rope. “Looks like you could use a hand,” he said jovially. A minute later, Sir LaserGuy was bound hand and foot, and his mouth stuffed with an old piece of cloth. The group returned to the camp, carrying the knight between them. Sir Jimbob went to sit down, whilst Sir bessie growled in disappointment as Sir MasterOfAll produced a key out of their pocket, and let the dog out of the cage, and pushed Sir LaserGuy inside, before locking up again.

“Sorry about the dog, Sir bessie,” responded the other knight. “I was just so frustrated with it after last night.”

“Harrumph…” muttered Sir bessie. “Very well, I forgive you, for now… Now, do you have a suggestion for how to take on this stupid Mouse? Sir Jimbob seems to be quite happy sitting and watching us tear each other apart, rather than actually lead.”

“As a matter of fact, I do,” replied Sir MasterOfAll. “Have you noticed that we’ve been constantly arguing, as a group, and then we’ve tried to send somebody off solo to deal with the Mouse. We haven’t been working together, and have been trying to take all the honour for ourselves. If we work together, maybe we can achieve something. Here’s what I suggest…”

The pair stood and talked for a few minutes, before agreeing that they were ready to take on the Beast together. With nobody getting in their way, it seemed like they might just succeed. They split up, with Sir bessie slowly making their way on the direct route from the camp to the spot where the Mouse had last been seen, and Sir MasterOfAll circling around behind.

They found the Mouse in the centre of a clearing, perched on top of a rock, as it was wont to do, it seemed. Spying Sir bessie reach the edge of the clearing, Sir MasterOfAll shouted to get the Mouse’s attention. It turned to face and started squeaking angrily at the knight. Sir bessie meanwhile slowly snuck into the clearing, until the Mouse’s rock was only a few metres ahead. In one hand was one of the small black orbs Sir Sabrar had been wearing, acquired earlier in the quest for an emergency.

Once in position, the knight threw the orb at the Mouse, somehow throwing it clear over the animal’s head. With a bang, the orb exploded right in front of Sir MasterOfAll, who had been advancing from the other direction, sending the knight flying backwards. The Beast turned and leapt at Sir bessie, landing just short, due to a hasty retreat. It didn’t stay put though, and was soon running after Sir bessie, who was doing her best to sprint in full-plate in the other direction, gaining ground until the Mouse was nowhere to be seen. Sir MasterOfAll climbed back to their feet and ran too. The pair met back up near the camp.

“Well, that didn’t work quite as planned, did it?” gasped Sir MasterOfAll.

“No, indeed not. Listen, I have another idea, and it involves zero attempts to take down the Mouse.” replied Sir bessie.

The two knights walked back into the camp. Sir Jimbob looked up from where he’d been sitting, sharpening his sword. “Ah, you’re back. Did you succeed?”

“We did!” the knights lied together.

“Alas,” continued Sir MasterOfAll, “Sir bessie’s orb struck the Beast of Weihnachten right in the middle and caused it to be obliterated. There wasn’t anything left to bring back.”

“Of course, we swear on our honour that it was so,” the other knight added. “You can be sure that the Beast will no more trouble us.”

“Very well,” the leader replied. “I declare this quest complete! Your names will be celebrated forevermore. At least until next week.”


LaserGuy was lynched. He was Sir Donner the Benevolent, member of the Mafia:
Spoiler:
Character Name: Sir Donner the Benevolent

Flavour:

You were raised believing that gifts are meant to be shared. With the great Winter’s festival fast-approaching and the appropriate distribution of presents, you decide this applies to everyone’s. And of course, for whom if not for the whole group on this quest?

People don’t really agree with your policy, but between you and your best friend Sir Alan the Annoying, you plan on … enforcing it.

Role:
Gift Swapper

Mechanics: Each night you may target two players. At the end of the night, they will swap all powers except factional abilities permanently. The players’ new powers will be included in their flip, and not their original powers. You may never target the same player more than once.

Win Condition: You are a member of the Mafia, together with Sir Alan the Annoying (wam). You win when all others have been eliminated, and at least one Mafia member is still alive, or nothing can prevent this from happening.

Factional Abilities: You have access to a factional night kill. Please inform the mods who you wish to kill each night, and which Mafia member will perform the kill. You have day and night chat with wam. Feel free to create a quicktopic, or use PMs, but please CC the mods in all communication.

Hidden Mechanics: The power acts last in resolution order, and can affect dead players (but not deliberately target them).
Game Over! Congratulations to Town on your victory!

bessie was Sir Prancer the Chaste, member of Town:
Spoiler:
Character Name: Sir Prancer the Chaste

Flavour:

People say they want to kiss under the mistletoe, but ever since you saw a stablehand try to use it to pursue someone who clearly wasn't interested, you've become more interested in helping people avoid unwanted affections. Forcing people to kiss is no fun; forcing people to back off when they're bothering someone, now that's what I call a calling!

Power: Santa’s List

Mechanics: Twice per game, at night, and no more than once per night, you can submit a list of all living players (except yourself) to the mods. You must label each player either Naughty (non-town) or Nice (town). You will be informed at the end of the night the number of mistakes you made.

Win Condition: You are a member of the Town and win when all threats to Town have been eliminated, and at least one member of Town is still alive.

Hidden Mechanics: None
MasterOfAll was Sir Talkalot the Loud, member of Town:
Spoiler:
Character Name: Sir Talkalot the Loud

Flavour:

In your quest to become the greatest ventriloquist you have traveled the world to learn from the best. On your quest you were helped by a strange fellow. He taught you a trick that allows you to detach a part of your voice and provide it to someone else.

Role Name:
Santa’s Presents

Mechanics: Each night, you may target a player. That player will be given a lump of coal (they will be informed). Players keep their coal until the end of the game. In addition, each night you may target a player. You will be informed if that player has been targeted by a player with a lump of coal at some point in the game.

Win Condition: You are a member of the Town and win when all threats to Town have been eliminated, and at least one member of Town is still alive.

Hidden Mechanics: Does not give coal when killed.


Thank you everyone for playing, and thank you to dimochka for assisting with the modding! Apologies for the mistakes, and for not quite getting the balance right in one or two ways.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (N5)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:19 pm UTC

If anybody is interested, here is the full set of flavour I wrote for each night message and so on: https://docs.google.com/document/d/11hT ... sp=sharing.

Here is the spreadsheet I used recording night actions and resolution: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Here is the spreadsheet I used as a basis for interaction information etc, though it is incomplete in one or two areas: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

In retrospect, I'd have made probably two changes to the setup:

1) Given Sabrar a definitive list of items that he could manufacture, with drawbacks (hidden or otherwise) to all of them.
2) Made at least one non-town member a Godfather and/or one town member a Miller, or simply introduced a hidden element to moody's ability that changed the result by some amount (e.g. +1 mistake).

Unfortunately, a number of my planned balancing factors didn't come into play for various reasons. Examples include bessie's ability always blocking something each night, when it was anticipated that it might just block the first action the following night, Sabrar's items never actually having a drawback that affected the game, and the Yin Yang ability never actually preventing anything beneficial to town. The only one that did become relevant was the Underdog. Had MasterOfAll been mislynched D4, then the game almost certainly would have ended in an SK victory, with LaserGuy probably killing moody, and Mark killing LaserGuy, leaving Mark alive with bessie only. However, such is life. I hope everybody enjoyed the game.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (N5)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:45 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:Out of interest, how many town remaining would there have to be with 1 Mafia and 1 SK alive to get the Underdog to convert to town ? Or is it basically impossible for the underdog to not become scum due to the multi all nature?
If Town had been eliminated first, then the Underdog would have become Town. Also, if at any point Mafia would have equalled remaining town + SK, then the Underdog would have joined Town. There were probably some other corner cases that might have arisen, especially around MYLO/LYLO mislynches but I can't remember what they were, nor really be bothered to work them out.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (N5)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jan 21, 2019 9:07 am UTC

This is mostly just a post to say that I've seen everyone's comments and want to address them, but I gonna doing it at my laptop once I'm home will be more productive than trying to get everything whilst phone posting on the bus.

A couple of key things to note though: when deciding on the setup, I ignored mpolo's requested win condition, as it was against the rules saying all roles could be usable by all alignments. However, when discussing the setup with dimochka, I decided that the curse would be a nice variation on an SK role anyway, so went with that idea. I guess I could have informed mpolo (and therefore Vicarin) that we were ignoring the win condition part.

As for quoting PMs etc, my intention had been for that to only be allowed in groups which were knowingly co-aligned. In this game, that would be only Mafia, but I didn't want to outright say that in the rules, because I wanted to avoid minimising setup possibilities. Sorry for the confusion.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (N5)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jan 21, 2019 9:30 pm UTC

bessie wrote:@jimbobmacdoodle – Was I still wearing the bomb after Sabrar died? I never disconnected, and I was trying to think of a way to use it to take out the last scum (which likely wouldn’t work anyway because moody’s protective power made him the only NK choice).
No, the bomb effectively disappeared with Sabrar's death, because he was the one holding the item.

bessie wrote:Also I’m disappointed that I specifically asked if I could quote my role pm for Sabrar and was told that quoting any mod communication wasn’t allowed in chat, but it appears mafia quoted their role pms and mod communication in chat.
The reason to not allow direct role PM is to prevent players using exact wording of PMs to prove/disprove somebody's alignment or similar such issues. The difference between your chat and the Mafia chat is that the Mafia knew each other's alignment. That meant that there wasn't a reason to prevent them being able to share it, whereas you and Sabrar did not know for certain that you were both Town. If you'd been Masons, it would have been different.

bessie wrote:Re this post:
dimochka wrote:The decision to not let the dead people in plytho's chats officially know his alignment was intentional. Yes, it would help with townies who would subsequently trust him more, but it would make his conversations with scum useless in my opinion. By not confirming alignment, plytho has a chance of convincing scum that he is also non-town and in that way get some important info he otherwise would not have.
This is brilliant, and especially powerful in the hands of someone with plytho’s reasoning skills. I’m so disappointed that plytho didn’t live longer so we could see how this power played out and if it actually helped catch scum.
Especially as plytho seemed to have wam convinced that he was a vig, so could probably have drawn conclusions about his buddy's alignment.

bessie wrote:Re this post:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:One of the reasons that rule 7 needs to exist is because without it, everybody will just claim what they submitted day 1 and then it becomes a case of trying to solve a logic puzzle ("whoever has the xor cop should target A and B, whoever has the doctor should target C etc) and one of the core parts of forum mafia is lost.
Agree with the reasoning behind this, but it seems to turn in to a sticking point every year. I think there are other options that perhaps we can explore next year. I was so busy the week you were setting this up and didn’t reply to your request for suggestions, but I think one thing you could have done was write one role and discard one submission (this was the same suggestion I made for the post restrictions in WoT3), that way no one could be 100% sure of any particular role in the game (except role pm and flips).
I actually almost considered this, because Vicarin submitted a role even though he was only a replacement, partly because I wasn't at all happy with one or two of the submissions, and was considering dropping them completely.

bessie wrote:SuicideJunkie’s self hammer- I’m disappointed that this was allowed and that he managed to kill Sabrar, because he was playing against his win condition. I guess that technically there was still a way for him to win, but he had no way of knowing this. Since the hammer was allowed and Sabrar also died, I guessed that SuicideJunkie was mafia and protecting a third partner, and selected my night action accordingly. I understand that this was one of those difficult mod decisions, and I’m glad it wasn’t mine because I’m sure I couldn’t have done better, but I’m still disappointed. If SuicideJunkie wasn’t a newbie I would have been screaming about this not being a modkill on D4.
I didn't really know what, if anything I could sensibly do about SuicideJunkie's self-hammer. You're right that it could possibly be considered anti-win condition, but there were other factors that came into play with it anyway, including his explosion, the fact that there was an Underdog in the game, and the fact that the SK could win even whilst not still being alive. Basically, that rule is mostly there to prevent people trying to get themselves recruited by cult, or throwing the game as mafia. I don't think the self-hammer was really that way.

bessie wrote:Mark’s role- I really like this role, however, the opening post strongly implies that there are no alignment or win condition changing roles, so I feel that having this role in the game was somewhat misleading. jimbob, was Mark always going to be considered indie and cop as non town, even if he got the town win condition?
I think I see where the confusion came from, but the rule about no alignment changing roles was specifically about submissions (and the Underdog wasn't part of the submission). I actually messed up in Gojoe claiming there couldn't be a cult, because based on that there could be. That and I think it's debatable as to whether Mark's role was truly alignment changing, or as somebody else mentioned, more like hidden win condition. When I think of that rule, I think along the lines of things like active roles that change somebody's alignment, e.g. a Town-ifier which converts Mafia to Town, or similar. I didn't consider the interaction of his theoretical town conversion plus cop, but I'd probably have given a Town result.

bessie wrote:That's all have for now, thanks again jimbobmacdoodle and dimochka, I feel Secret Santa is always a difficult game to mod (and I'm always afraid to volunteer) and you did a spectacular job and made it very fun.
Thanks bessie. I'm glad you enjoyed the flavour. I'm not the most natural at writing fluff, and I made it harder for myself later on by trying to make everybody (except for Sir Jimbob) gender neutral for the background - it seemed weird having female knights, so I couldn't really use "her" and "she" with Sir bessie and Sir Madge whilst at the same time using "he" and "him" for you also felt wrong. Thank you for the little bit of inspiration for the final night's background too, with the cage!
Vicarin wrote:I was more wondering if it was reasonably possible for Mark to become town, without town not just immediately losing again after. Because it seems like after becoming town the game would be in a 2-2-1 or 1-1-1 situation, both of which are terrible for town.
Whilst 2-2-1 is not great for town, by that point, the SK has to try to kill Mafia, and the Mafia are trying to kill the SK, so Town just has to duck and hope they don't get caught in the crossfire. A successful lynch of Mafia (if Day) or a cross kill (if night) would actually see town in quite a strong position. In a 1-1-1 situation, Town are basically hoping that the two scum kill each other. In that instance, if Day, a No Lynch is Town's best shout, although a sensible SK with this game would just lynch the player voting No Lynch, and die in the crossfire to scum. If Night, Town have a very good chance of winning.
Vicarin wrote:The alignment changing thing was interesting because mpolo had submitted SJ's role, but the submitted version was a indie who rigs explosives under a person each night, and when they die all the explosives go off, winning if there's no one alive after (also why I tried to get people to back off when I was sure what he was). This made me rather suspicious about how it'd been changed to comply with a power switcher, and jimbob clarified that the powers couldn't but left the possibility of changes in general.
The curse ability was not part of the SK factional ability, so could have been switched to another player, which would have made the job a lot harder, as it was there to make up for the every other night kill. Mark's ability was intended to aid him in keeping the balance between teams, but he lost it on N1, so that didn't work. As I mentioned earlier, I think, the fact that the curse was given to the SK was a design choice independent of mpolo's submission (similar to Mark having the Yin Yang ability initially).
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (pregame)

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:45 am UTC

Confirm

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:17 pm UTC

Vote: Sabrar

For not being one of the first posters.

I think in this style of game we should probably mass claim D1.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:43 pm UTC

wam wrote:@ laser why?

Odd thing to say given how often we lynch vicarin for the same thing!

MasterOfAll wrote:@LaserGuy: I am at least willing to consider your reasoning for a D1 mass claim. So, what are you thinking everyone should claim (Rolename and ability?) and why do that here on D1?


There's a couple reasons for this...

I don't really care about rolenames specifically, but was thinking about abilities.

In this setup has a rather unique advantage: In a three man scum team, scum already, in principle, could know as many as six of the available roles (the three they submitted plus the three they received, assuming no overlap). It's going to be much easier than normal for them to interpret night results and figure out who the strongest Town PRs will be. Sharing everything neutralizes that advantage.

Secondly, this setup is much more likely than average to be breakable using powers since the mods aren't explicitly designing against it. Even if we can't outright break the setup, by mass claiming we can force scum to choose targets that are suboptimal for their abilities since they need to justify every action immediately rather than retrospectively.


People's commentary on this is also useful.
-MoA and wam seemed most willing to engage me on this, which feels townie. I also suspect the vanilla claim is Town.
-jimbob!Sabrar and bessie didn't care about the proposal specifically but used it to try to sort me, which also feels townie.
-Madge missing this entirely is suspicious because I expected her to be quite interested in the idea. Feels scummy.
-BoomFrog not using this to try to sort me is a little suspicions.
-moody, mpolo, and plytho all responded in safe ways that are kind of nullish. Mark didn't note this at all, which I think is nullish for him as well.
-Still thinking about SuicideJunkie.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:53 pm UTC

Vote: Madge

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Dec 14, 2018 7:04 pm UTC

SuicideJunkie wrote:I don't think early claims are appreciated, but something more vague for flavour perhaps? Probably still not helpful to town.

Voting hijinks will upset me. Possibly unduly so. But if someone does that unvote/revote thing so they can vote for someone they don't actually want lynched... That'll be a double barrelled FoS from me.

I don't like how MoA is picking on the new guy for an easy vote. Smells scummy to me.


Just for clarity's sake based on the discussion above: I don't think that individual players should claim D1 unless their power is extremely negative utility (e.g. a paranoid gun owner who kills anyone that targets them). Leaking bits of information about different powers is probably not beneficial. But I do think that having everyone claim might be a valid strategy though.

MasterOfAll wrote:@Everyone who is familiar with the mods: How do you think they went about setting up the game? Fixing up our role submissions a bit, deciding on town-scum-indy balance, then just randomly assigning each role and alignment? Or would they be more likely to manually select things?


In this sort of setup, normally I would expect the players to be assigned their alignments first, then roles randomly distributed without concern for how playable they are as a given alignment (possibly with a few tweaks). That's how I did it when I modded Secret Santa last year, at least.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Dec 14, 2018 11:00 pm UTC

Madge wrote:RE: claiming rolenames - this is a LESS crazy idea but I still don't like it. I suspect submitted names have been changed, so even if I claim my name is Sir Jimbob, that's not going to help because the person who submitted the Sir Jimbob role called it the Flavouriser or something. So claiming names won't even work on a meta level, though my name does somewhat hint at my power, so it'd help in that regard I guess.


I think claiming rolenames is a very bad idea actually. If the mods have kept the rolenames the same, then anyone who happens to have one of the powers that scum submitted will have outed themselves without providing any useful information to Town. I think it's really got to be all or nothing with claims.

plytho wrote:It’s not necessarily true that it’s going to be much easier for scum to interpret night results and find the strongest town PR’s. That depends a lot on the specific powers involved. Usually results aren’t public, so at the start of D2 scum might not know anything about town powers.
In fact, because scum know so much about up to six powers, we should be more hesitant to claim. In a regular game town might hide an aspect of their claim to mislead scum, but here scum know all the details of their submitted powers so the knowledge helps them more. The advantage of a mass claim is on the scum side.


This is something that I was mulling over after modding Secret Santa last year... I think in that particular game, Town would have been in a much stronger position from an early mass claim given the powers that were available. As it was, Town basically didn't get any useful night results for the entire game because of the awkward ways that their powers interacted when nobody knew what was going on (also, in that game the person with the strongest powers turned out to be scum!bessie, so if there was a mass claim D1 it would have been very suspicious for her to have survived till the endgame).

[ninja by plytho]

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Dec 15, 2018 9:56 pm UTC

@SJ: Could you do let's say... MoA's posts and show how you got your evaluation? Your table isn't much help if we don't know what you're doing.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Dec 15, 2018 10:13 pm UTC

wam wrote:Ok so reading back through.

1 for sabrar content is down.

2 doesn't engage with this post from Bessie. viewtopic.php?f=53&t=125666#p4416617

3 I agree with booms points here viewtopic.php?f=53&t=125666&start=40#p4416889

So unvote [/b
[b]vote sabrar


How do you get that Sabrar didn't engage with bessie? Did you miss the spoiler in his post that was the bulk of his analysis where he spends considerable time on that post?

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Dec 15, 2018 10:32 pm UTC

Vote: wam

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Dec 16, 2018 6:28 am UTC

Not liking that reads post from Mark. Gonna put him in my scum pile.

Will look at Sabrar's stuff in more detail when I get off mobile. Initial impression is he looks okay, if a bit hard to read due to the formating.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Dec 16, 2018 9:03 am UTC

SuicideJunkie wrote:The chart is fairly simple.
One pass to just note the volume of posting, 1-4 points based on length. Sort and rank.
Another go to give points on what was on topic rather than smalltalk.
For the third, I just ticked up points based on what I felt was illuminating new insights.


Hmm... I think I'm going to give a hard Townread on this if scum is night chat only since I think a buddy probably would have advised you as to the problems with what you're doing.

One problem I see immediately is that you're grossly overvaluing post length compared to everything else. E.g. why is bessie super Townie for high post volume but only C for on-topic/insightfulness, whereas moody's few posts are extremely on-topic and insightful to you, but he's on the scummy side of the evaluation? Why is quantity more important to you than quality? Do you think it is easier for scum to fake quality or quantity? Actually a better example is moody and BoomFrog. They're D/A/A and C/A/A, respectively but moody ends up with a big negative modifier and BoomFrog a positive one.

eg:
MoA had a lot of typing, but modest on-topicness, and relatively low density of things that shed light for me.
Sabrar had very little, and while the one post was very pointedly on topic, it didn't seem to mean anything.
Boomfrog was posting lightly, but was on topic and provided insights.

I expect people would agree with the first two categories, but might disagree on the third if they find different things trite or wise given more experience.


Be more specific. What things of MoA's (or Sabrar's, BoomFrog's) did you evaluate as insightful?

PS:
Are spoilers in this thread always OK to read, and just used to avoid post spillage?


Yes, in-thread spoilers are always okay to read.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Dec 17, 2018 7:32 am UTC

Reads:

bessie:

Liking bessie's content for the most part. Scumhunting appears genuine and well focussed. I'm noting the "double standard" discussion but I'm on the fence as to whether or not there's anything particularly fruitful there. Putting as Town lean for now.

bessie wrote:Do you mean scum has day and night chat? And you are making the following assumptions:
1. Mafia is actively participating in day chat at a high enough level to influence each other’s posting.
2. Mafia partners are at an experience level where they are able to/feel comfortable with giving advice on post content.
3. Mafia partners are willing to forgo “naturalness” of the new player’s posting style and actively advise.


Yes, you're right I have this backward and it should be SJ is Town if scum has daychat. For the rest, in my setup spec of 3 mafia I think the odds of there not being at least one partner who would try to help out a new player, especially one as apparently active and involved as SJ appears to be, is fairly low.


BoomFrog:

Not really much to go off of yet. Apparently is deliberately coasting for a bit. Agree with Sabrar that some of his reads seem a bit bizarre to me. Going to mark him as "Is BoomFrog" for now and revisit once I've seen more from him.


Madge:

It's weird to see Madge defending Sabrar instead of Sabrar defending Madge :P Still bothers me that she didn't choose to engage me on the mass claim question, even after I made a point about it. Doesn't seem to be paying close attention for the most part either. Putting as scum lean.


Mark:

Early MoA vote doesn't seem well motivated, even if it's borderline RVS. Don't care for his reads at all. Most seem to be extremely poorly motivated and are mostly null or no opinion on anything, and the few points he actually made of substance he ended up backtracking on in his next post. Scummy.


MoA:

Vanilla claim and subsequent retraction seems to be deliberate WIFOM. My inclination is that this is probably more likely to be coming from Town, and I liked that he was willing to engage with me on the mass claim point. That aside, his content is mostly active lurky except for an OMGUS vote on wam. Kind of ambivalent on him so I'm going to set him for null for now.


moody:

I'm just going to go out on a limb and mark down a gut Town lean for now.


mpolo:

Not much in his content to speak of, but nothing that's an obvious ping either. Null pending more content.


plytho:

Content looks alright. Active and making some good observations. Reads look pretty solid and I don't see much to disagree with. Putting as Town.


Sabrar:

Obviously playing a very different meta from previous iterations. I lean somewhat Town on this as Sabrar has done some experiments with his meta as Town in the past (e.g. SS 2017). The stream-of-consciousness style of his posting I think is probably actually quite difficult to fake, and a lot of his observation I find quite astute. Marking as Town for now.


SuicideJunkie:

Enthusiastic newbie. Going to mark him as Town lean for now and see how his content develops as the game progresses.


wam:

I think expecting MoA to comment on the confirmation post analysis is a bit strange since MoA would not be familiar with the meta/inside jokiness surrounding this. Seems to not really be paying close attention, e.g. this:
wam wrote:Sabrar seems off this game going to 're read and we if I can put my finger on what.

Wam and Sabrar have a history together so I'm skeptical that wam would need a reread to pick up why Sabrar "seems off". The subsequent post doesn't seem to suggest he actually did a reread anyway.

Reads are fairly safe with mostly lurkers in the scum pool. BoomFrog seems out of place in the Town pile. Happy with my vote here for now.



Town
LaserGuy
plytho
Sabrar
bessie
moody
SuicideJunkie

mpolo
BoomFrog
MasterOfAll

Madge
Mark_Cangila
wam
Scum


Just a note I will be on holidays for the next two weeks. I should be able to continue posting, but not as frequently as usual.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Dec 18, 2018 5:36 pm UTC

I still think I'd prefer wam or Madge but the case against MoA is pretty compelling. I'm fine with this.

I'll check back in tonight but I probably won't be around at deadline.

Vote MoA

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Dec 19, 2018 6:39 am UTC

Current votals

wam (1): MasterOfAll
MasterOfAll (3): Sabrar, plytho, LaserGuy
Mark_Cangila (2): wam, BoomFrog
Madge (1): Suicide_Junkie

Not voting: bessie, Madge, mpolo, Mark, moody


Not loving have 5 people sitting with no vote so close to deadline. All of you should be planning on placing a vote somewhere.

MoA's possibly-final post doesn't give me any particular Town vibes, but I agree with the sentiment that the lack of action on this wagon makes it kind of dubious. Hmm.

I'm kind of liking this, actually.

Vote: Madge

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Dec 23, 2018 6:40 am UTC

Sorry I haven't been around. Been very busy.

@mods, FWIW I would appreciate the extension a bit past Christmas.

D1 lynch scramble was interesting. Streamlining the votes as of here:
Spoiler:
bessie votes wam (4 way tie)
wam votes MoA (puts MoA at 3)
moody votes Madge (ties the vote)
plytho votes Mark (Mark at 2)
wam votes Mark (Mark at ties the vote with 3 with Madge)
BoomFrog votes mpolo (Mark at 2)
BoomFrog votes wam (wam at 3)
Mark votes wam (wam is leading with 4 votes)
wam votes Madge (Madge at 3)
Boomfrog votes MoA (wam at 3, MoA at 2)
plytho votes Madge (Madge at 4)
bessie votes MoA (MoA at 3)
wam votes MoA (MoA at 4)


Some thoughts here:
-Individually wam's votes feel scummiest. He seems to be consistently pushing up leading wagons rather than really voting for principled reasons.

-BoomFrog's voting seems consistent with being a buddy of Mark. BoomFrog and Mark both push up wam after Mark is threatened, and BoomFrog unvoting Mark to a neutral mpolo vote removes a lot of pressure there. BoomFrog jumping back to MoA here is a bit strange.
BoomFrog wrote:That's a good sign. For the record I think that MoA or Madge are most likely at this point, but I'm not feeling confident about any of our choices.

Unvote wam
vote Master of All

@Boom: Why did you move to MoA here after feeling that his wagon was bad here?

-Independently of BoomFrog, Mark's vote on wam also looks pretty bad. Earlier he liked wam's content and his vote here has a very OMGUS feel to it to me.
Mark_Cangila wrote:However, content wise I really find Wam as the scummiest. His supposed scum slip which doesn't make sense, and his weird early MoA vote.
Vote: Wam

@Mark: Why do you think wam thinking something in your content was a scumslip would make him scummy? You said that you liked wam's early content. Why is his MoA vote suddenly scummy?


On night results:
mpolo wrote:Sabrar and Master of All are co-aligned, according to the power that I had last night.

wam wrote:Bessie, boom, laser not the same alignment.

moody wrote: I made a list of people as follows guessing town or not town

I'm skeptical that all of these powers can exist and be Town and not have this game be pathologically breakable. I like moody's analysis and this feels very Town coming from him, so of the three I think this is probably the most trustworthy.


Current reads are roughly:
Town
LaserGuy
moody
SuicideJunkie
Sabrar
plytho
bessie
MoA

mpolo

BoomFrog
wam
Mark
Scum

Not sure about the ordering of bottom three. I don't think wam is co-aligned with either Boom or Mark, but if Mark is scum decent chance Boom is too.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Dec 23, 2018 11:30 pm UTC

Mark_Cangila wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:
Mark_Cangila wrote:However, content wise I really find Wam as the scummiest. His supposed scum slip which doesn't make sense, and his weird early MoA vote.
Vote: Wam

@Mark: Why do you think wam thinking something in your content was a scumslip would make him scummy? You said that you liked wam's early content. Why is his MoA vote suddenly scummy?



As I said, the list you are refering to was done at night, and is not indicative of my reads at any point.


The first question is not related to that list and you should answer it. Regardless, I feel that gut reads and impressions are actually still very useful information. wam voted MoA in his first post so I feel like that post probably would have kind of been a significant basis for this impression.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Dec 23, 2018 11:31 pm UTC

Testing Bessie's hypothesis about Sabrar.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Dec 23, 2018 11:31 pm UTC

By making some useless posts.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Dec 24, 2018 9:04 pm UTC

I think Sabrar's analysis of Moody's result checks out and even with a possible GF in play it doesn't really change the substance of the argument. Then again, I'm happy to lynch either Mark or wam based on content anyway.

I probably won't be around until sometime on the 26th.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Dec 25, 2018 4:57 am UTC

The most accurate way to determine if there is a GF is to lynch both. Losing of those powers with a GF in the game is not such a tragedy anyway... If wam is Town and here is a GF, we know the only resolvable scum is in you/me/bessie anyway.

Given the choice, I would lynch Mark first though.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Dec 25, 2018 5:22 am UTC

Also, you didn't answer my question to you from my first post of this day phase.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Dec 27, 2018 7:36 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:I know how to read a room. Mark is going to get voted-off if he doesn't claim his former power.

Vote Mark


I'm curious to see how this works out since you were mod-confirmed voteless today. I'm not sure if this oversight is townie for you or not.

bessie wrote:wam (4) : Vote of Mod, Sabrar, MasterOfAll, Mark_Cangila
Mark_Cangila (4) : plytho, moody7277, wam, BoomFrog


Also surprised you missed it immediately afterward.

BoomFrog wrote:@wam: Does your power target? Are you sure? Mark/mpolo: same question about mpolo's cop power, but don't answer until after wam.


Why are you so interested in determining whether people's powers have targets? What does it gain us to reveal this information publicly?

Mark_Cangila wrote:I personally support a Wam lynch. His role seems really odd to be in the same game as my new role.
Vote: Wam


You do understand how the roles in this game were generated, right? Having identical or nearly identical roles is not impossible. Do you have any reads based on actual content at this point?

Vote: Mark

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Dec 27, 2018 6:32 pm UTC

Mark and BoomFrog's progression regarding that claim feels very staged to me. I think it's more likely they're scum together rather than both Town. I'll post the quotes when I'm off mobile.

BoomFrog wrote:@Bessie and LG: Do you feel Sabrar is town?


I think he is Town.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:59 pm UTC

@SJ:

Mod vote is already included in the totals so wam is L-1.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Dec 28, 2018 9:38 am UTC

bessie:

I think I can tell the difference between Town!bessie and scum!bessie and I think this is Town!bessie. Putting her as Town lean.

BoomFrog:

I feel there's a strong associative connection between him and Mark and think it's very likely if Mark flips scum then Boom will as well. Independently of that, some of his reads seem quite alarming. Boom always finds me scummy so I discount that, but his Sabrar/bessie/moody reads all seem quite o.O to me. Likely scum if Mark is, scum lean otherwise.

Mark_Cangila:

No reads, no content, plenty of weirdness.

The sequence of posts surrounding his claim feels very fishy to me.

Mark_Cangila wrote:A somewhat lack of boomgambit, but his gambits seem to have been reducing for the last few games. I don't find anything else in his play AI.

This is Mark's D1 read on Boom. When revisiting these reads later, he stands by this read. So BoomFrog was a null. Mark has otherwise not interacted with Boom at all. This doesn't strike me as a particularly sensible candidate for Mark to protect.

Mark_Cangila wrote:The BF thing is super interesting. Why can't he vote?


This is very strange for Mark to say given he knew the answer to this already, and ought to have known that some other player would also know the reason. Mark tends to be quite open with his results as Town, so his approach here seems quite dubious... I think Town!Mark would have more likely claimed his full result in his first post of D2 since his power had been switched anyway if he thought he had actually blocked the NK.

Mark wrote:I also had my power switched. I think it is more likely that there is a succesful doctor or RB then a scum withhold.


Same as above. Like plytho, I am very skeptical that Mark wouldn't have noted mpolo claiming a result in his first post of the day. This feels more to me like he is prepping his claim for later and didn't consider the implications of the power switch from Town POV.

Mark_Cangila wrote:
mpolo wrote:I somehow missed that Mark had his power switched as well. I think I know who is target was, and suspect that he was trying to do something townie in that targeting (that is, he used the "townier" half of the two option power). I suppose that targeting would work theoretically work for scum as well, though, due to additional information that scum has. However, the townie interpretation seems likelier. That at least pushes Mark_Cangila over the midpoint to "neutral leaning town" for me.

Going to confirm this is true. Just if anyone wanted to know.


Noting also that due to the targets of Mark's original power being confirmable, scum!Mark would need to use the power in a way that seems relatively townie. But again, this feels more like he's prepping his claim... there isn't really any reason for Mark to make this comment.

BoomFrog wrote:I think Mark is the most likely vote-off and you seem to think the power is evidence that he is town. So yeah, I'd reveal probably.


BoomFrog wrote:I know how to read a room. Mark is going to get voted-off if he doesn't claim his former power.

Vote Mark


BoomFrog feels way too eager to force a claim here with plenty of time remaining and Mark not even being the lead vote. Without knowing what power mpolo/Mark had, I am extremely suspicious of BoomFrog asking mpolo to claim here... Mark had posted an hour before, there was no reason to rush it since he was obviously following the thread.

Mark wrote:Mpolo's claim is my old role. I am voting for wam due to general scuminess too.


Again, the caginess of this is really strange. There's no reason not to claim a full result here.

Nothing in this feels like a townie claim to me. Scummy.

MoA:

Content is fairly marginal. Giving him a pass due to cop claim, might revisit later depending on how the GF thing resolves.

moody:

Usage and analysis of his power feels very townie. No serious concerns. Townie

mpolo:

Pretty much same as moody. Townie

plytho:

I like his reads and analysis. His posts feel very genuine. Leaning Town.

Sabrar:

I like his aggressive scum hunting this game and I feel his influence is outsized despite his relatively low post count. Leaning Town.

Suicide_Junkie:

Newbie weirdness hard to sort through. D2 content doesn't feel as sharp as D1. I still think newbie Town, but I'm less confident than I was before.

wam:

Votes at lynch scramble are defensive and poorly motivated. Some very problematic/scumslippy content too:

wam wrote:I agree with sabrars logic here
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=125666&start=240#p4419265

Which means from my perspective Mark and MOA must be scum.

This is actually much more problematic from wam's point of view since it actually implies that both Sabrar and MoA are mafia but wam's own result implies that there's yet another scum in Boom/bessie/me. I think wam worked through the logic here marking himself in the scum column and felt it checked out without actually looking through the implications of how it would look to Town!him, which would actually be extremely alarming (there are similar problems for Mark).

wam wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Why did you not put SJ as one of your three? He was clearly newbie town.


I don't know tbh. Didn't really occur to me. think I wanted a good town block of people I can't read.


This justification seems odd to me. Wam had me/Boom/bessie/Sabrar as all rated as townier than SJ. The underlined statement suggests wam didn't really actually think about his targets vs. reads at all though. Overall, definitely scummy.


Town
LaserGuy
moody
mpolo
Sabrar/MoA
bessie
plytho
SuicideJunkie
BoomFrog
wam
Mark
Scum

I think there's a very good chance both wam and Mark are scum of some variety, though not necessarily scum together.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:57 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Gift switcher should take Marks gift away from him.


Mark's power was already swapped on N1 and can't be moved again.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:48 am UTC

plytho wrote:What? If you're going to claim, claim more than this. Like, why did you switch Mark and mpolo?


Two reasons: First, it is ambiguous in my role PM as to when my power is actually processed, so I wasn't sure (and the mods wouldn't clarify) whether it would interfere with night actions or only change the powers after the fact. I felt that targeting a player who was a scumread and one who was a hard null would be a safe way to verify this. I didn't want to target wam because it might have interfered with him getting a result; I didn't want to target MoA because I didn't want to dump his apparently terrible power on someone else. Mark/mpolo were the next best choices I had available.

Second reason was I felt Mark and mpolo were players who would likely reveal alignment indicative information upon being switched, and this would be useful in allowing me to read both of them. I'm fairly happy with how this has worked out. I was planning on claiming earlier, actually, but people's reactions were so interesting that I decided to let it keep simmering for most of the day.

I think lynch BoomFrog, protect Mark with the vote block might be the best strategy.


Why Mark instead of moody?

Right now we have tree cop powers. One of which is probably in the hands of scum. If we mislynch one and scum NK the other we have none left. I'd rather let scum do the cop-killing. That does require us to do the hard job of finding scum outside of Mark and wam.


I don't have a good feel for if the net positive benefit in terms of night results from lynching someone less likely to be scum than these two is worth the increased risk of a mislynch. I think we get more clarity from lynching wam or Mark.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:05 pm UTC

@Vic: I targeted Boom and MoA because Boom was a scum read and MoA was probably townie with a power that seemed pretty bad. I have no information on how my power interacts with any other ability and am unlikely to get anything. I'm very surprised my action processed before a NK as that seems very unintuitive as far as action resolution is concerned. But it may mean I can essentially protect one power from the NK.

@Sabrar: I will try to reread later today and get back to you.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:13 pm UTC

Well, one shot protect a power from NK I guess

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Jan 02, 2019 5:39 pm UTC

Didn't have time for a full reread, so mostly going off memory here.

Most people have already claimed... Second kill is not likely due to a vig. Ruling out Sabrar based on D3 content. SuicideJunkie seems to be suggesting their role is more esoteric than a vig. I have reason to believe the second kill is also not due to vig!bessie. So it seems likely we have an SK or possibly a second mafia, though I don't know if the logic actually works for that. PoE suggests most likely candidates for buddies with wam are SJ or bessie. Most likely candidate for SK is Mark.

I have not received coal.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:38 am UTC

@Sabrar: Would it be helpful to you for me to swap your ability tonight?

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:11 am UTC

Mark_Cangila wrote:Last night I targeted MoA and Bessie. They are both aligned. Therefore, I feel like Bessie, MoA, and Sabrar are all town, unless 2 are mafia and 1 is indie. I targeted MoA and Bessie because I was at the very end of night and didn't know who to target.


So how did you come up with those two? Were you scumreading either of them? Townreading? Random number generator?

Why haven't you posted any reads this game?

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:17 am UTC

SuicideJunkie wrote:On review I'm liking Laserguy even less.
Suggesting I'm scum if daychat because I'm new makes even more sense if he knew daychat existed and that I wasn't part of it. My posting hours certainly haven't helped that impression.


This is an interesting misinterpretation of what I said. I'm not sure how you think your posting hours are relevant one way or the other.

Laser was very quick to jump on my Madge vote too.


This is definitely a thing that I did. Why do you feel this is scummy?

Aiming to get Boom lynched with Mark if Mark is scum.


This is definitely a thing that I did. I'll freely admit it will probably look really bad for me if Mark flips Town and there's not really anything I can do about that, but why is this scummy if Mark is scum?

Seems subtly protective of MoA. The fact that wam did vote for MoA in the RVS sounds like a practical thing to do, but I'm .


I'm curious to know what the end of this sentence is supposed to read. Do you think MoA is scum?

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:57 am UTC

I'm not currently voting. I believe SJ is voting for me.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:21 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:Would still like firm theories about what happened N1 and how to explain all of the cop results from people who haven't already given them.


I thought it was obvious from context, but very well, what I think happened N1 is 1) mafia targeted either BoomFrog or bulletproof SK and were blocked; 2) SK either targeted BoomFrog or withheld.

The cop results I'm incorporating into my analysis as I go. I think the most likely candidates for mafia are SJ and bessie; most likely candidate for SK is Mark, followed by Sabrar. In the latter case, Sabrar would need to be either GF, or possibly immune to all night actions (explaining the missing messages) in such a way that it obfuscates the cop results in a similar manner to a GF.

Especially from LaserGuy, who seems to be putting up a very weak defense of himself right now.


In the very limited time I have available to play right now, I'd rather focus my attention on more productive things, like finding scum.


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