Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (N5)

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (pregame)

Postby moody7277 » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:57 pm UTC

Confirm.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby moody7277 » Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:52 pm UTC

vote: bessie

Probably the only time I'll be able to vote for her this game.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby moody7277 » Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:21 pm UTC

Well the most recent standard games of this size have had 2 1/2 scum, so 9-3 is the best minimum data guess, with 8-3-1 next most likely.

Definite no on D1 mass claim. D3 at some point is when I'd say that is appropriate.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby moody7277 » Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:17 pm UTC

SuicideJunkie wrote:I hope that isn't leading to a joke about considering me worth half a player and therefore scum. That would just be mean.


Half scum in this case means someone with interests against town's, but not coordinating with the scum team. Sabrar and plytho have recently had roles that fell in this category. There was also some discussion about the balance of 2 vs 3 scum in games of this size in GoJoe.

LaserGuy's explanation has good plausibility behind it, and I particularly like how he figured how the whole role submission angle plays out. My knee-jerk reaction was the usual rolefishing=bad paradigm, but I'm getting a more townie vibe on him.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby moody7277 » Sat Dec 15, 2018 11:00 pm UTC

SuicideJunkie wrote:Loquaciousness: moody - D


That fits me to a tee, and I've sometimes paid for it.

bessie wrote:bessie: 5
BoomFrog: 8
LaserGuy: 9
Madge: 6
Mark_Cangila: 2
MasterOfAll: 4
moody7277: 4
mpolo: 5
plytho: 6
Sabrar: 2
SuicideJunkie: 10
wam: 5


FTFY. Also I find the indignation in your responses earlier to be genuine, so back to townie read on you. I also agree with you that Madge being accepting of silent!Sabrar is not a very townie thing to do.

Almost getting time for my Snap Judgement Reads PostTM. Will likely compose it sometime Sunday.

unvote
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby moody7277 » Sun Dec 16, 2018 8:30 pm UTC

bessie- usual setup spec, grumpy at a few people. actually reading through she seems to be grumpy at most people. vote on Sabrar is serious because she mentions looking for scummates, then unvotes after Madge's blind acceptance post. more responses in most recent post. grumpy bessie is not something I've seen before, but I think she is still town anyway

BoomFrog- reponse to grumpy bessie, joke vote on Sabrar, enjoying the byplay with SJ, quick reads with LG, SJ, and MoA as town, disputes some of Sabrar's reads, tries to puzzle out his conciseness. slightly townie

LaserGuy- joke votes Sabrar, provides the main topic for discussion so far, analysis from the responses, votes Madge off of it, upset by wam being oblivious to Sabrar's spoiler, votes wam, also doesn't like Mark. trying to get SJ to unpack his table a bit. Town.

Madge- usual D1 blues, upset at mpolo's scum read, bit of antagonism with bessie, feels SJ's spreadsheet is empty data. This is just wrong, doesn't like bessie or my responses to it. neutral to slight scum.

Mark- response to MoA's "claim" is a vote that doesn't seem RVS. reads list highly unimpressive, most players in a "don't know" type with a couple of people labelled scum. slight scum lean

MasterOfAll- "claims" vanilla townie, joke vote SJ, open to LG's mass claim but figures scum would get more benefit, metagaming the mods, bit of wine at the end of the last post. slight town

mpolo- couple of meta reads on bessie and Madge, no on mass claim, some role spec, and a bit of fluff. neutral

plytho- joke vote wam, some responses, reasoning on LG's mass claim idea seems to point to him being against it, reads post looks good. Town.

Sabrar- Doing a more laconic style for personal reasons if we take him at his word. Content is all there, just in 80% less posts. slightly townie

SuicideJunkie- trying to settle in, some interesting opinion on the RVS deal we've gotten used to, the table is an interesting innovation. what strikes me is the strong correlation between "loquaciousness" and the final score despite him agreeing that they don't necessarily go together. A bit of an explanation in his next post, but a lot is still subjective. Neutral

wam- joke vote MoA, agrees with bessie on setup numbers, notices Sabrar's posts, but apparently didn't read all the way through them, also votes Sabrar off that. bit superficial in the responses. neutral.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby moody7277 » Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:19 pm UTC

Madge wrote:- moody's post looks good at first glance but i'm not happy with how many people are neutral. if you're gonna do reads then be more willing to put people on one side or the other.


That would be three out of eleven? One of whom is in his first game here, so I don't have any starting point for a read.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby moody7277 » Tue Dec 18, 2018 2:26 pm UTC

Madge's latest post drips with OMGUS, with a slight seasoning of hypocrisy re the reads list at bottom. I'm going to remove the neutral part, and say my current votables are her, Mark, maybe wam.

On the MoA wagon, I don't have a strong enough feeling on him to join. The read on me cited by plytho, for example, is exactly the D1 read I'd expect him to remember from days of yore reinforced by reading current games, and the same kind of read say bessie gives me (Cynical View here: it's a lazy boilerplate read which goes along with the boatload of fluff Sabrar pointed out).
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby moody7277 » Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:05 pm UTC

My original read of MoA was in the 3-4 range, as opposed to LG or plytho who I have at 7ish, so it's not a strong town read. I also have sufficient other people that I want to prioritize that pushing off an in depth look at him was feasible. With him being the wagon du jour, that would seem not to pertain.

MasterofAll

Spoiler:
post 1: proactive apology of future lurking, joke claim of vanilla and vote for SJ
post 2: fluff at Sabrar and SJ, metagaming the mods, wants info on LG claim plan before passing judgement
post 3: discusses LG's reasoning on claim, summarises by saying scum get more benefit out of it, credits LG with providing D1 discussion fodder. last line is the whole thing about "scum should't kill me because that would make me sad"

This was the point where I made my "slightly townie" read, which look to be based on the light-hearted tone of the posts, and the fact his idea for when the mass claim might be executed coincided with mine.

post 4: response to wam's vote of him, calls his reasoning crap, switches to voting wam.
post 5: attempt to justify post 4 as not OMGUS. reads list with Madge and BF as towniest, wam me and Mark as scummiest. also has Sabrar and LG as slightly scummy.

So, yeah. :?

post 6: deadline warning
post 7: response to plytho and BF criticising his reads, also friendly response to Mark


I can see that there is enough that with the proper perspective (Cynical View here) he is scummy enough to be voteable. My more moderate impression is that he's dropped to 0-1 on the scale.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby moody7277 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:48 pm UTC

Vote: Madge

Liking this wagon.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby moody7277 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:33 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
mpolo wrote:Sorry for disappearing. The last two days were very chaotic. And I'm going to bed now — it seems the lynch is decided, and I'm not going to change anything either way.

Actually, it's 4v4 Madge vs MasterOfAll. With Madge leading for now.


wam was voting for Madge, so it's 4-3 in MoA's favor (well, not favor exactly).
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby moody7277 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:43 pm UTC

Well, one more reason to hate vote shenanigans.

Conditional Fos bessie and wam.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby moody7277 » Sat Dec 22, 2018 1:52 pm UTC

bessie wrote:So moody, why the conditional FoS of me?


The condition wasn't met insofar as the wagon you and wam were apparently trying to steer the vote away from turned out to be town.

Some interesting results to ponder. I may also have something to add, but I want to check my info twice in light of what's already been said.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby moody7277 » Sat Dec 22, 2018 3:02 pm UTC

wam wrote:Moody would like an answer to the above?


I was perfectly happy with the Madge lynch until last night when it turned out she was town. What it looked like to me at the time was that you and bessie were trying to steer the lynch away from Madge (needing someone else's help as it turned out due to plytho's sotto voce vote), which since I figured that she was scummy meant you and bessie were suspicious.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby moody7277 » Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:39 am UTC

Well, based on several points bessie made, she is really pessimistic about wam. If he like I missed plytho's vote for Madge, he may have figured he was doing more to muddy the vote than otherwise. bessie's poistion in the late day flurry didn't have as much leverage, so it's correspondingly less indicative, although she is being oddly sensitive about it.

The main point of my post is my night result. I made a list of people as follows guessing town or not town:

town
LaserGuy
Boomfrog
Sabrar
plytho
bessie
mpolo
SuicideJunkie

not-town
MoA
Mark_Cangila
wam

From the mod, I know the list has three mistakes on it. Folding in the other claimed investigation claims, we have:

naive read, wam and mpolo both town:

mistakes: wam listed as scum, MoA listed as scum, someone listed as town.

conclusions:
--Mark definitely scum
--very likely some godfather role that didn't register as a mistake by being listed as nice in order for the 9-3 setup
--GF might be in the list wam gave, although why the GF would mislead in my investigation but not his is confusing

scum!wam, town!mpolo:

mistakes: MoA listed as scum, not immediately clear what 2 and 3 are.

conclusions:
--handy town block of Sabrar, MoA, mpolo

town!wam, scum!mpolo:

mistakes: wam listed as scum, mpolo listed as town, whichever of wam's list isn't town.

conclusions:
--one scum in {MoA, Mark}
--one scum in {bessie, boom, LaserGuy}
--we end up with 4 non-town, which means we most likely started with 8-3-1

paranoid read, wam and mpolo scum:

mistakes: mpolo listed as town, not immediately clear what 2 and 3 are.

conclusions:
--more difficult because of discarding the extra info

I'm including the paranoid read for the sake of completeness as I do not give it a strong possibility.

Vote: Mark
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby moody7277 » Sun Dec 23, 2018 8:28 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Why not, hmm, ask wam to explain himself? This is very unlike you moody.


Not asking people a lot of questions is unlike me? Have you been paying attention? :? :lol:

Right now I'm working from a trusted core of me, plytho, SJ, and Sabrar (that's right, I'm bringing back the shameful lemma 0). YMMV
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby moody7277 » Sun Dec 23, 2018 11:35 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
moody7277 wrote: (that's right, I'm bringing back the shameful lemma 0).
I do not understand this.


Secret Santa 2017, Sabrar was trying to logic puzzle out the game, and his chosen format in that one included using lemmas. I decided to codify his unspoken assumption of being town as lemma 0. That game ... was not my finest hour, ergo shameful.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby moody7277 » Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:19 pm UTC

Might have been the Christmas game Madge ran in 2016. Sabrar made a comment on that start of D2 about how convoluted interactions might have gotten.


reads: based more off the three investigation claims that independent content. I'm using broad categories right now. More usual list from player summaries might be a goal for end D2 or early D3.

trusted: plytho, Sabrar, SJ. people I already had as townie and mostly not implicated in the three investigations (in Sabrar's case, he's in the more trustworthy of the other two)

town
LG. inertia from D1 read
bessie.
mpolo.
MoA. mpolo being town plus his statement about MoA and Sabrar leads to this read

BF. if I believed wam's result, he's the most likely of the three named to be odd person out re alignment
wam. previously had him at neutral. claim is less helpful since it is more ambiguous.


Mark. In most of the scenarios I deduced from the three investigations, he's scum. His being obtuse on mpolo is also not helping
scum

Thursday will be crazy busy for me.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby moody7277 » Wed Dec 26, 2018 7:08 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
moody7277 wrote:Thursday will be crazy busy for me.

To add some clarity, I just want to confirm. Your power does not target anyone ever right?


Since I'm listing everybody living, I don't target anyone in particular.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

User avatar
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby moody7277 » Thu Dec 27, 2018 3:07 pm UTC

Checking because this seems to be a point of contention:

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:BoomFrog is voteless today. He may not vote.


dimochka wrote:Mark_Cangila(5): plytho, moody7277, wam, BoomFrog, LaserGuy


Is this votal correct?
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby moody7277 » Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:44 pm UTC

SuicideJunkie wrote:I'm not sure why Moody seems to like wam in regards to that 'naive read town' bit, but the implication is if wam is scum, mpolo should be town.


Would you mind clarifying this line a little, specifically how I "like wam"? "Naive" was just shorthand for assuming both claims are town. I also included the other three possibilities, including the one where both are scum. Your second part of the statement is accurate in that I think it is unlikely both are scum.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

User avatar
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby moody7277 » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:45 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Why haven't you gotten your post count up like Bessie asked?


Because I just woke up half an hour ago and just finished catching up?
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

User avatar
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby moody7277 » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:48 pm UTC

Anyway, no lynch is bollocks, and BoomFrog looks ridiculous for suggesting it. A bunch a of people are voting wam, me and a few more are after Mark. I am not offended by either of these since we either get someone who looks really scummy or test the origin of one of the cop claims, while still having two available. That's the only oddity I've seen from him, so he's still sitting at slightly townie. May change if wam turns up town.

BTW, Sabrar is right that making a list not an every night thing.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby moody7277 » Tue Jan 01, 2019 1:46 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:@moody: exactly how often can you use your power?


That's not a question people usually like to answer.

None of the deaths count toward my mistake total. We can also discount wam's claim about people as wine. I'm also still thinking about a GF looking nice in terms of my power.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby moody7277 » Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:16 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:If you don't want to answer that question now, why'd you mention anything about how often you could use it on D2?


You're going to sit there and tell me that you haven't seen people understate their power for tactical reasons?
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby moody7277 » Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:53 pm UTC

I was the N1 coal recipient.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

User avatar
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby moody7277 » Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:33 am UTC

My version of what we can conclude from claims:

scum!Mark, town!Vic:

MoA not scum, 2 of {LG, bessie, SJ} scum
GF in this case not likely because we would already have 4 non-town

OR, throwing out lemma 0

Sabrar scum, 2 more scum in {LG, bessie, SJ}

5 scum in a 12 player game is ridiculous, even for a special game. Therefore, lemma 0 holds.

town!Mark, town!Vic:

Mark not scum, MoA not scum, 1 of {LG, SJ} scum

GF in this case more likely because without it, would only be 2 scum otherwise.

town!Mark, scum!Vic:

Mark not scum, Vic scum, 3rd undetermined

if MoA scum, 3rd mistake is the scum in {LG, Sab, bessie, SJ}, otherwise there's a GF in that same group to make up a 3-person scum team which is most likely setup

scum!Mark, scum!Vic:

Vic not town, 2nd and 3rd undetermined

not much to be deduced because of lack of trustworthy info.

Big conclusion is that I need to firm up my reads on {LG, bessie, SJ}.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby moody7277 » Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:02 pm UTC

SuicideJunkie

Spoiler:
D1
post 1: resume, doesn't seem to like RVS
post 2: reaction to MoA's joke vote and joke claim
post 3: terminology confusion

Looks like standard newer player stuff

post 4: amazing display of meta knowledge from his research
post 5: still showing displeasure at RVS, even trying to make alignment judgements off it
post 6: disputing some of plytho's reaction to MoA's stated activity level.
post 7: poke at BF for his reaction about MoA's joke claim
post 8: fluff
post 9: The Table of Reads. includes himself on the table, has bessie and plytho as also very townie, Sabrar and Mark as bottom 2.

May have already mentioned that the "loquaciousness" category correlating with his final score very strongly is ironic when compared to his point in post 6.

post 10: explaining and justifying some of the categories in the table
post 11: redefines the table's purpose from a town/scum list to encouraging quieter posters, Sabrar's position on it revised due to his info-laden spoiler not viewed
post 12: fluff
post 13: numerics on Sabrar revision, details how he got his number on MoA, sass to Sabrar. repeats reads in more familiar format, MoA, Madge, Mark votable, plytho and bessie towniest

categories broadly align with my reads

post 14: response about a power claim (out of context a little hard to judge)
post 15: clarification about town->scum list
post 16: points about current voting situation, including dislike of No Lynch. starts Madge wagon.

Any problem I would have with his role in the Madge wagon would be hypocritical

post 17: reply to bessie about his allegation she was fishing and point re voting
post 18: acknowledges correction re tie vote rules, surprised at having started the Madge wagon, proposes checking voting patterns
post 19: still lamenting starting the Madge wagon

Cynical View here: he's figuring this will be a point against him if and when she flips town

post 20: reiterates his votables from post 13 in response to question from BF. unofficial vote plus untie offer
post 21: clarification on BF's question
post 22: response to Mark's estimation of SJ's experience
post 23: correction on post quotes
post 24:
I am now 85%+ convinced wam is town.


I believe the term Hilarious in Hindsight covers this.

D2
post 25: final regret on Madge wagon, seems willing to blame no NK on scum withholding. message claim
post 26: final final regret
post 27: trying to puzzle the no NK and vote issues
post 28: kind of a reads plus connections post, plus speculation on the power switching
post 29: more speculation on night power usage
post 30: hedges town read on wam
post 31: cop result analysis and some alignment judgements from it (town Mark and BF), only 2 of 3 cop claims likely town.
post 32: clarifies point plytho brought up about wam's "cop claim", offers to hammer wam
post 33: reply to me about a point of my notation
post 34: shot down re hammer offer
post 35: reply to bessie re his opinion on the three cop claims
post 36: post about BF's redefining the game in terms of deathy, not really a cogent counter argument.
post 37: minor point revising his statement in post 31
post 38: town->scum list with me and bessie at top, wam and Mark at bottom

Seems a little confused in some of the analysis. The switch on Mark being town in post 31 to being second scummiest in post 38 is weird. The switch on wam is a little more gradual seems to be more of following the crowd.

D3

post 39: warns against claiming power as it's bad for town
post 40: repeats claim from post 39, comes back around to town!Mark. no coal
post 41: seems to be hitting the wall re content (not uncommon I've heard)
post 42: some reads, decides LG is scum, votes LG

"following the cop" in the last post seems a little ambiguous as I can't recall any definitive single-valued opinions to make the LaserGuy vote on.


On the whole, there are some stylistic peculiarities to get used to that might otherwise be seen as scummy. The movement on wam is a little troubling. I don't see any strong interactions with any particular person. Right now I'd put him at a +3.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby moody7277 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:58 pm UTC

That’s a pretty high rating (I think). Can you post an updated town-scum so I can see how that compares to everyone else?


The scale runs from +10 to -10, so not really high.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby moody7277 » Sat Jan 05, 2019 4:41 pm UTC

bessie

Spoiler:
D1
post 1: checking off all her standard early game things, couple of Foses, dislikes LG's mass claim idea intensely
post 2: lampshading the checklist to new player SJ
post 3: Fos on wam and revs up the argument at Sabrar about the confirmation posts, few more responses, votes Sabrar
post 4: Notices and dislikes quiet!Sabrar, asks wam about MoA, reply to SJ about her meta
post 5: Likes BF's observation re quiet!Sabrar, starts her post counting, pokes Mark for content, notices Madge's off reaction to quiet!Sabrar, unvote

Seems like she had dropped the grumpiness I thought I saw in the first few posts.

post 6: trying to get a justification from Sabrar
post 7: pointed comments at wam about his opinion of her voting, seems to develop a negative read of him

Cynical View here: she's distancing

post 8: replies to Sabrar, piqued by his positive read of LG, still concerned Madge seems oblivious to quiet!Sabrar, still trying to check her theory for quiet!Sabrar by getting Mark to post (in and of itself townie)
post 9: explains her test of Sabrar's seeming restriction to plytho and contests my impression that grumpy bessie is a new thing. unofficial votals
post 10: various replies about her prodding people for content, to Mark re coaching, several to MoA, post count 2

Looking back, it is amazing how much grief she was getting about prodding people for content. Even her main purpose of trying out her theory of quiet!Sabrar having a restriction had the knock on effect of getting Sabrar able to post more, which is still townie

post 11: disputes plytho's point about her reads list timing, post count 3, couple of encouragement points to Mark and SJ
post 12: town->scum list with LG, Sabrar towniest, wam and Madge scummiest. votes wam, open to voting Madge
post 13: replies to plytho's pointed comments at her, none of which I find fault with. unofficial votals and post count 4
post 14: switches vote to MoA, which was her third scummiest pick
post 15: end of day fluff

D2
post 16: more discussion with plytho about reads, disputes my theory on the end of day voting shuffle but also suspicious of wam, post count 5
post 17: video reply to Mark about wam
post 18: tries to console SJ for leading a town wagon, exhaustive list on the N1 no NK, more wagon analysis where she doesn't like wam and isn't pleased with me and plytho either, post count 6
post 19: still doesn't like my explanation for wam and her switching votes end of D1, finds wam's cop claim to be useless, frustrated by people's acceptance of it, votals and post count 7
post 20: sass to me about me directly asking questions

Apparently I was wrong about grumpy bessie being so uncommon (as she pointed out in post 9)

post 21: pokes wam on previous question
post 22: replay of her responses to plytho from previously about her trying to get people to post more, post count 8
post 23: expansion of quiet!Sabrar theory to explicitly say scum might know for sure and are intentionally gaming it, GF speculation, votals and post count 9
post 24: reply to LG disputing a Mark lynch, reply to Mark about previous player-submitted games, post count 10
post 25: couple more responses, votals and post count 11
post 26: reply to BoomFrog about which cop claim he wants to lynch
post 27: votes wam and hammer alert
post 28: replies: asks SJ about his opinion on cop claims, wants town->scum lists, from mpolo and MoA in particular, post count 12
post 29: suggests alternative for BF's read of Sabrar wrt his game mechanics focus, refutes SJ's reason for the cop claims theory with example of Mark, pokes me and mpolo for posts, post count 13
post 30: summary of D2 SJ that looks really fluffy (his posts not her analysis), town to scum list with me and Sabrar up top, wam and BF at bottom
post 31: okay with mpolo's reappearance, wants more from MoA, post count 14
post 32: disputes BF's dismissal of wam's scumminess as typical of him, more encouraging to SJ

About here was where I was thinking she's being a little OCD with the post counts in that it felt like she was doing them every post. I've seen them done in previous games (including one game I did them myself) a long time ago, and the main point is one she made in that they are in addition to not instead of content.

D3
post 33: Thanks Vicarin for subbing in, and immediately starts in on him on his take on the quiet!Sabrar theory
post 34: claims message from MoA, continues discussion with Vicarin, data dump re post counts, with wam (conf scum) and SJ most significant drops
post 35: really dislikes the person who submitted BF's role, other responses to Vicarin including defending her method, suspicious of SJ, post count 15
post 36: response to Vicarin and SJ, votals and post count 16
post 37: response to Sabrar re the voteblock doctor, scumteam of wam and SJ


The theory that makes her want people to post more, the data collection and partial analysis from it both point to a townie read. The cynical view above that she's been distancing wam all game is a really long con I can't make myself take seriously. Final score: +7.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby moody7277 » Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:59 pm UTC

LaserGuy

Spoiler:
D1
post 1: joke vote Sabrar, suggests mass claim

Cynical View here: this is role fishing on the grandest scale possible

post 2: explains call for mass claim in that scum already have oodles of info regarding roles, also wants to do the Sabrar thing of logicing the game, analysis of reactions to call for mass claim

It was this post that made me so bullish on LG early on

post 3: votes Madge based off analysis
post 4: modifying role claim scheme, mod speculation wrt point by MoA
post 5: dismisses Madge's compromise of rolename claim as insufficiently helpful to town, more mod speculation wrt how it affects the claiming
post 6: questioning SJ regarding the Table of Reads
post 7: pinged by wam looking oblivious in his read of Sabrar
post 8: votes wam
post 9: scum read Mark, town read Sabrar
post 10: decides to town read SJ based on lack of coaching, deconstructs SJ's assumptions for Table of Reads
post 11: reads post, plytho Sabrar towniest, Madge Mark wam scummiest
post 12: being convinced on scumminess of MoA, switches vote to MoA
post 13: "lack of action" on MoA wagon leads him to switching vote to Madge

Not sure what to make of the "lack of action" idea, but she was further down on his list, at the time this vote seems to make sense. Cynical View here: he couldn't get a mislynch on MoA, so he switched to Madge

D2
post 14: some vote analysis with wam looking scummy, develops line between BF and Mark, dubious of one cop claim, with me most trustworthy, reads with Mark and wam still scummiest, BF connected to Mark not wam
post 15: discussion with Mark about reasoning on his read of wam
post 16: increasing post count for bessie
post 17: fluff following post 16
post 18: agrees with Sabrar on analysis of my list
post 19: lynch strategy wrt GF role, preference for Mark
post 20: (can't tell out of context)
post 21: commenting on BoomFrog and bessie forgetting about BF being voteless, accuses BF of rolefishing, votes Mark for one more misunderstanding of how roles were made
post 22: BF, Mark scumteam, Sabrar town
post 23: explains modvote to SJ
post 24: reads post with wam, Mark and BF, scummy, everyone else degrees of townie
post 25: swapping power not repeatable
post 26: reasoning on targeting: didn't want to screw up townier players with unclear power, translating that to players via reads (with the caveat of wam's late D1 cop claim)

Turned out wrong about BF, but then hey, it's BoomFrog. Reasoning in last post for power use looks sound, and seems to be a genuine concern for bad interactions with townie powers

D3
post 27: explanation to Vic about N2 usage and repeat of some caveats from post 26
post 28: guess relating to the sudden possibility of SK
post 29: speculation on origin of second kill, Mark as SK
post 30: asks Sabrar for swap
post 31: asks Mark about his targeting from mpolo's former power, really upset by lack of reads
post 32: rebuttal of some points by SJ, basically shows SJ was flinging mud
post 33: request correction to votals
post 34: tries out theory about lack of N1 kills, short summary of his analysis of cop results, would rather hunt scum

The point I can think of against this theory is that if he figures Mark is SK, he's not the type of player I would expect to withhold a kill. Still leaves Mark targeting BF as possible by his point 2.

post 35: addendum to theory on what happened N1
post 36: rebuttal to MoA of why he's including bulletproof and GF in his analysis
post 37: reply to Vic about his ideas on scum properties and how it affects results


His switching power is confirmed by too many people for them to be coordinating scum. Even if there are scum among the involved parties (at this point, that would most likely be Mark) they seem to be playing along with it. Reads and analysis look townie. Final score +5.5
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby moody7277 » Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:05 pm UTC

Synthesizing old and new impressions

town
bessie +7
Sabrar +7
MasterOfAll +7
LaserGuy +5.5
Vicarin +5
SuicideJunkie +3
Mark 0
scum

based on the logic from my most recent analysis of my and other cop claims, I would prefer the Gang of 3 cleared first, so

Vote: SuicideJunkie
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby moody7277 » Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:32 pm UTC

Results from last night. Used my second of two chances with list making, so whoever got it from me being swapped is most likely out of luck. List follows:

1 mistake

Nice

bessie
Vicarin (town)
MasterOfAll
Mark_Cangila

Naughty

LaserGuy
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby moody7277 » Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:49 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Mark, please also claim whether or not you received coal.

moody7277 wrote:Used my second of two chances with list making, so whoever got it from me being swapped is most likely out of luck.
Why did you feel the need to claim this? (And what do you mean by whoever? There was no one else available.)


Given that someone else (you) has the description for the role now, the tactical idea I was discussing with Vicarin start of D3 no longer applies, and so honesty about it is the best call.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby moody7277 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:08 pm UTC

bessie wrote:@moody, you should vote first so we can see your vote show up in the votals to prove you weren’t roleblocked.


Considering that it's quite possibly LYLO, I'd want to be real careful with that. Then again, Mark has already popped off and everyone else has posted, so :?

I can quote two snippets that might give a simpler explanation for Sabrar's demise. It looks like it's just a coincidence that he didn't have the lowest post count end of D3.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby moody7277 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:37 pm UTC

jimmod wrote:Sabrar was wearing a Neighbourizing Suicide Vest.

jimmod wrote:Example negative effects are greedy investigative powers (e.g. mass cops) giving false results or greedy protective or obstructive powers might backfiring in some fashion (e.g. making a kill unblockable).


I figure that Sabrar tried to do something fancy with inventing a way of getting chat with someone (the timing with SJ may or may not have been coincidence), maybe even try to turn someone town (pro: strong enough to trigger a backfire, con: name would indicate not), and the negative effects kicked in.

In terms of opinion for the rest of the game:

--bessie is in the definite town category, not going to consider scenarios which say otherwise
--If LG is town or GF, we only have one scum left, otherwise there are two scum and we're at LYLO. My previous analysis was that he was in the group with SJ that had one scum, and so should be cleared. Assumptions made in this analysis included MoA's status not messing up results.
--My opinion of MoA has ridden on mpolo's claim about he and Sabrar. GF would mess this up.
--I've been reading Mark pessimisticly all game. Being the first to vote in a potential LYLO is not a point in his favor.

BTW, everybody can use the lack of a speedlynch to eliminate {bessie, LG}, {bessie, moody}, and {LG, moody} as potential scumteams.

Project for D4: develop independent read of MoA.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby moody7277 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:31 am UTC

MasterOfAll

Spoiler:
D1
post 1: apologises in advance for any lurking, joke vanilla townie claim, joke vote on SJ
post 2: reasures SJ about the RVS, metaread on the mod, open to discussing LG's D1 mass claim
post 3: disputes one point on mass claim, thinks it's more useful later, point for LG using it as discussion starter. explains joke claim
post 4: disgruntled at weak reasoning in wam voting for him, switches to voting wam

Putting together wam's flip and the point in the day for this, I am dismissing distancing in this case, which looks good for MoA

post 5: Harumphs at wam's claim it's an OMGUS. reads list (with an inverted format for town->scum), me and wam scummiest, Madge and BF towniest

I'm sure Cynical View would have something to say about the formatting

post 6: deadline correction
post 7: response to plytho saying his read of me is lacking in depth, complaining about Mark's posting
post 8: responses to Sabrar about his superficial level posting, picking out why he finds Madge townie, and role claim which coincides with one we've since seen flip.

Ends the day with his vote on wam, having done little in the way of digging into the game, for which he was the alternative wagon of D1 with two confirmed town, one very likely town, and one scum.

D2
post 9: message recipient list, reads based off cop reports with Sabrar, mpolo, BF looking good, bad about LG. scum NK thwarted somehow
post 10: reasoning behind list, reports of success with messages, town->scum list with me and Mark scummiest, Sabrar and mpolo towniest
post 11: fluff
post 12: likes my claim, theory that there is GF due to 3 cops, agrees with Sabrar about his analysis, Mark and wam votable
post 13: dislikes that post restriction is a possibility, example from previous game
post 14: apology for holiday lurking, votes wam
post 15: questions mpolo's read of Mark, new town->scum list. me promoted to middle of the road, otherwise very similar
post 16: removes Mark from votables because of N1doc!Mark possibility
post 17: finished with D2
post 18: updates town->scum list with wam and LG lowest

Open to all cop claims, including the person he's had most scummy for all game to here. Doesn't seem to be developing his own ideas.

D3
post 19: Confirms LG's trade of his role with BF.
post 20: spec about submission of wam's role. coal report summary, with explanation for later. LG and SJ look worst by PoE
post 21: N2 message summary, hoping to track role redirections and such
post 22: claims coal as tracking device, so far no results. Some analysis of my N1 list results, concludes GF likely exists with some setups
post 23: paranoid case on me being scum
post 24: response to Vic about reading him and Sabrar as town based on cop results, Mark seen as untrustworthy
post 25: still trying to work out no kill N1, this time wrt wam's flip.
post 26: adds to post 25 about assuming 2NKs
post 27: wants claims from his scummiest (LG and SJ), townier people can wait until D4.
post 28: edits list to include Vicarin subbing in
post 29: disbelief in SJ's claim, votes SJ

A small amount of digging into the game (some analysis, some banter).

D4
post 30: no results on coal, new person selected to get some. review of N1 list given new data, scum either single GF or LG+someone, asks bessie about my old role
post 31: repeats role usage from N1 and N2
post 32: expands on coal mechanics, delayed watcher, utility limited
post 33: positive hit on Vicarin, source was Mark
post 34: trying to figure LG switching mechanics, discussion with bessie: role fully claimed, her idea about protecting Sabrar and Mark. concludes LYLO with LG and Mark
post 35: figures Sabrar died due to curse, some speculation on hidden variables
post 36: still trying to sell bessie on hidden variables, reiterates his idea of the game situation, LG and Mark only votables


Points in his favor: he was on wam for two game days, voted for him both times, and was right. voted for SJ, has a confirmed town saying he is co-aligned with another confirmed town. Points against: has floated quite a lot in his opinions of what was going on, possible GF counters cop result. Final score: +4.5

In light of modly deadline warning, I'd want to put my chit on Mark. Probably make that official tomorrow morning my time.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby moody7277 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:10 pm UTC

Good morning. As promised, here's my vote.

Vote: Mark_Cangila
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (N5)

Postby moody7277 » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:03 pm UTC

As you might have seen in the spoilers, I had a whole list of things I expected were downsides of the list power. Turns out that none pertained.

SJ: Being SK in your first game is a really steep learning curve, and I'm rather impressed that you survived until D3.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (pregame)

Postby mpolo » Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:38 am UTC

Confirm
Image <-- Evil experiment


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