Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (N5)

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:23 pm UTC

Edited: removed for accidentally posting after deadline...
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Dec 22, 2018 8:20 pm UTC

I probably won't be able to post or read much until Tuesday or Wednesday. Quote ping me if you need a specific reply. I haven't read anything from D2 yet.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:56 am UTC

bessie wrote:[
BoomFrog wrote: I probably won't be able to post or read much until Tuesday or Wednesday. Quote ping me if you need a specific reply. I haven't read anything from D2 yet.
1. What did you post after deadline? Can you post it now so we can all see it?
I've PMed mods to see how to handle this. I don't want to gain any advantage from breaking the rules.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:57 am UTC

2. Do you have any night results you wish to claim?

No result I'd like to claim besides the public result.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:58 am UTC

3. Please answer the above in separate posts and make three additional posts.
Posting restrictions are supposed to make the game more fun.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:58 am UTC

But this game is about experimenting.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:59 am UTC

So it was worth trying
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Dec 24, 2018 6:43 pm UTC

reconstructing the edited post from memory at mods request:

Boomfrog wrote: Madge would likely feel guilty about letting her teammates down if she were scum and would have voted by now. Plytho please move your vote.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Dec 24, 2018 8:57 pm UTC

I haven't caught up yet, so I won't repeat the analysis that I'm sure has already been done, but I'm inclined to believe mpolo and moody based on tone. I think a godfather to balance all the cops makes sense. I was ready to unvote wam before he claimed and I think he is probably also town.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Dec 25, 2018 1:51 am UTC

Alright, all caught up now.

Sabrar wrote:
plytho wrote:Ugh, I have this nagging feeling that there's at most 1 scum in this group of usual suspects and I can't figure out who.
This pings me as having too much info.
Actually this pings me as very townie, since I had the exact same thought at the exact same time and I think that's a hard thought to construct artificially.

@BoomFrog: why have you not reacted at all to my points about the 'easy' wagon? Or about the voting block? Or about whose lynch would give us info? In fact you totally ignored me...
I disagreed and responding D1 would have only weakened the value of my efforts. I'll respond now. It is my favorite thing to do, and the reason is that it works. (As long as scum don't correctly plan on me doing it and use it against me)

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:I'm not particularly happy with this wagon, it's too easy, and I don't like the assumption that we caught scum so easily and all their buddies are just sitting back and giving up. At minimum someone would have proposed a serious second candidate.
I know this is your favorite thing to do but you simply have to look beyond applying the same thing over and over again without considering the individualities of the situation.
1. In a 12-player game someone having 4 votes is not an 'easy' wagon, especially if those 4 are asked to vote together in a block.
2. There is a clear consensus about the most scummy players, you won't see a new name pop up out of the blue, not even by a scum-mate.
3. There is push-back even on MasterOfAll (e.g. moody here, or wam not switching back (and possibly pushing for a moody-mislynch after his buddy is voted off (I mean this just looks to be a repeat of this))).

1) The mood of the group was that MoA's vote-off was a forgone conclusion. It's not about the 4 votes. Maybe LaserGuy would have shaken things up on hie own, but most likely we would have drifted into a uncontroversial vote-off with little to be gleaned from people's actions.
2) Of course, but there were four candidates in the vote pool and certainly some of them are town.
3) Yes, but those were weak, and I expect a 3 man scum team, so I'd expect something a bit stronger then that.
4) It turned out I was right wasn't I? Why do you find my behavior suspicious in retrospect?
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Dec 25, 2018 1:54 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:I think Sabrar's analysis of Moody's result checks out and even with a possible GF in play it doesn't really change the substance of the argument. Then again, I'm happy to lynch either Mark or wam based on content anyway.

If there is a GF then only one of wam and Mark are scum. Doesn't that change things and we should try a little harder to figure out which is which? And the town one has a valuable cop power which we would like to preserve wouldn't we? Why aren't you concerned?
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Dec 26, 2018 4:17 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:I'm considering whether it would be useful to reveal the power that I have now, as it adds some clarity to the night before… After all, at least 3 people know what it is (Mark_Cangila, myself, the submitter). If Mark or the submitter is scum, then the whole scumteam knows as well. What do you think?

I think Mark is the most likely vote-off and you seem to think the power is evidence that he is town. So yeah, I'd reveal probably.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Dec 26, 2018 4:25 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:Thursday will be crazy busy for me.

To add some clarity, I just want to confirm. Your power does not target anyone ever right?
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Dec 26, 2018 4:33 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote: -BoomFrog's voting seems consistent with being a buddy of Mark. BoomFrog and Mark both push up wam after Mark is threatened, and BoomFrog unvoting Mark to a neutral mpolo vote removes a lot of pressure there. BoomFrog jumping back to MoA here is a bit strange.
BoomFrog wrote:That's a good sign. For the record I think that MoA or Madge are most likely at this point, but I'm not feeling confident about any of our choices.

Unvote wam
vote Master of All

@Boom: Why did you move to MoA here after feeling that his wagon was bad here?

1) I originally overstated how bad I thought MoA's wagon was as an excuse to vote elsewhere. What I really wanted was for people to consider other wagons.
2) Without the plytho-Mark connection wam and Mark were both just regular scummy feeling, but they both feel like that anyway, so they had neutral chances of being scum.
3) I knew when I made the vote for MoA that I was most likely condemning Madge. But I wanted to keep an alternative choice viable.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Dec 26, 2018 4:37 pm UTC

wam wrote:Cop results

Bessie, boom, laser not the same alignment.

mpolo wrote:
Sabrar and Master of All are co-aligned, according to the power that I had last night.
Why did you not put SJ as one of your three? He was clearly newbie town.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:07 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Boomfrog wrote:Madge would likely feel guilty about letting her teammates down if she were scum and would have voted by now. Plytho please move your vote.
This seems false. Madge likely went to bed around here where she wasn't yet in too much danger and we don't even know she was online. We also don't know whether she would check the thread immediately after waking up (deadline was theoretically passed so there wasn't too much urgency).
Maybe, I don't check people's timezones generally, but scum Madge would probably have been aware of the deadline and placed a vote somewhere before going to bed. It was a last minute thought I'd had during lunch and I want going to double check since we were not deadline.

Boomfrog wrote:Actually this pings me as very townie, since I had the exact same thought at the exact same time and I think that's a hard thought to construct artificially.
Disagree, it's easy to pretend because you're not actually 'constructing' that thought.
I don't understand which part of my logic you are disagreeing with here. I'm saying plytho decided to post "I feel like there is only one scum in this batch of four". He is either A) Town/Indy and doesn't know if it's true B) Mafia and knows it's true C) Mafia and knows it's false. "B" seems unlikely, plytho would be self conscious and not post that. "C" would require a very good self-fakeout to get into a townie frustrated mindset. Therefore "A" seems most likely. Aka, a townie ping.

Boomfrog wrote:1) The mood of the group was that MoA's vote-off was a forgone conclusion.
You can't state this for certain. SuicideJunkie's vote on Madge would have happened regardless which in turn contributed to LaserGuy's switch. bessie's vote was not influenced by group-think. By that time possibilities were quite open.

Boomfrog wrote:2) Of course, but there were four candidates in the vote pool and certainly some of them are town.
It would require a concentrated push by scum which can be quite noticeable (and possibly difficult if no day-chat). Also you moved too early, it might have been that not all scum were online/ready to push. You know that on this forum activity picks up in the last few hours if deadline is convenient.
Boomfrog wrote:3) Yes, but those were weak, and I expect a 3 man scum team, so I'd expect something a bit stronger then that.
You can't expect every player to push as hard as you do. They could be bussing or just simply not known for the style. Suppose e.g. mpolo is MOA's buddy, did you really expect him to come out with a strong case against someone else and try to direct the lynch? Or did you expect a strong push from potential scum!Madge?
I agree, there would have been a mad scramble closer to deadline. But by starting the mad scramble earlier it let it go longer and give more real info. Yes, we might have an all passive players scum team, but the scramble also helps prove that by giving scum opportunities to try to push things. And if no one shows an agenda then that can at least be evidence of towniess in some players.

Boomfrog wrote:4) It turned out I was right wasn't I? Why do you find my behavior suspicious in retrospect?
You're only right if MOA is not GodFather or mpolo's scum-buddy. Who is your scum-team right now? D2 you found plytho very townie, you believe moody and mpolo, you think wam is Town, you believe MOA is town and by extension me as well (because you believe mpolo). So now we have moody's result to resolve which must mean that Mark is scum and there is GF plus another scum in {bessie, LaserGuy, SuicideJunkie} and those 3 are in your top town group here. Tell me who is scum.[\quote] I haven't had time to analyze the full situation, as I said I was busy in RL until today. I'll probably go through the details this afternoon. You bring up an interesting point and I mostly agree. (MoA is only town because of mpolo's result, so he could be GF in the all real cops scenario.) But that does mean all the cops being real seems unlikely. If all cops are real I'd say Mark+ 2 of [Bessie, LaserGuy, MoA] with preference to LaserGuy and Bessie being both scum since a priori it was unlikely for MoA to be the GF.

A couple questions for you: Your theory is that wam is totally false claiming. Why not vote-off Mark and ask for the gift switcher to switch wam and another player. That would let us prove if wam has the cop power he claimed. If he actually has the cop power does that prove he is town?
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:16 pm UTC

In knew I should have previewed those long quotes. EBWOP:
Boomfrog wrote:4) It turned out I was right wasn't I? Why do you find my behavior suspicious in retrospect?
You're only right if MOA is not GodFather or mpolo's scum-buddy. Who is your scum-team right now? D2 you found plytho very townie, you believe moody and mpolo, you think wam is Town, you believe MOA is town and by extension me as well (because you believe mpolo). So now we have moody's result to resolve which must mean that Mark is scum and there is GF plus another scum in {bessie, LaserGuy, SuicideJunkie} and those 3 are in your top town group here. Tell me who is scum.
I haven't had time to analyze the full situation, as I said I was busy in RL until today. I'll probably go through the details this afternoon. You bring up an interesting point and I mostly agree. (MoA is only town because of mpolo's result, so he could be GF in the all real cops scenario.) But that does mean all the cops being real seems unlikely. If all cops are real I'd say Mark+ 2 of [Bessie, LaserGuy, MoA] with preference to LaserGuy and Bessie being both scum since a priori it was unlikely for MoA to be the GF.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Dec 27, 2018 12:52 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:I think Mark is the most likely vote-off
Why not wam (who is currently leading)? Why have you been against a wam-lynch all game? You keep making excuses to not vote him. The one time you actually voted him (when you switched votes with every other post) you immediately moved away from him when he was in danger in actually getting lynched (because Mark followed you) and wam claimed Cop.
Because wam is lynch-bait. He's always scummy, and I've seen nothing extra scummy about him this game.

Where's the guarantee that gift-switcher is town and even if s/he is would follow this plan?
Well if the gift switcher dosn't cooperate then we know they are scum, since it's an obviously beneficial move for town. Even in the situation that wam is scum with a actual-cop power then town gets to steal the power. This is an obvious "use powers to gain advantage" move that town!Sabrar should be interested in.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Dec 27, 2018 12:57 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:I think Mark is the most likely vote-off
Why not wam (who is currently leading)?
Also, that is absurd that you consider wam to be "leading" since he is only leading due to Vote of Mod.

plytho wrote:I don't think it's necessary. If Mark is under pressure to be lynched, let him claim. Mpolo can be the check.

I know how to read a room. Mark is going to get voted-off if he doesn't claim his former power.

Vote Mark
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Dec 27, 2018 4:39 am UTC

bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote: Well if the gift switcher dosn't cooperate then we know they are scum, since it's an obviously beneficial move for town. Even in the situation that wam is scum with a actual-cop power then town gets to steal the power. This is an obvious "use powers to gain advantage" move that town!Sabrar should be interested in.
And why do you think wam has the most beneficial power for town? Or let’s say he does, what if the switch gives scum!wam a power that is more beneficial for scum than a cop, like a vig? I think this is a bad idea unless everyone’s power is known, and we can determine who has the least beneficial power for scum, and switch that person with wam.

Cop is one of the best possible roles for town, even comparison cop. At the very least MoA seems to have a useless power. mpolo's "townie side" of his power sounds awkward to use well and I'd bet wam's comparison cop is better.(mpolo/Mark don't confirm or deny this. It's all hypothetical for now.) Also, switching moody and wam would let us prove both of them at once. I don't want to pick one of those three options specifically because that will help scum interfere better. I also wouldn't object to switching moody with MoA/mpolo to test moody really has his claimed power.

@wam: Does your power target? Are you sure? Mark/mpolo: same question about mpolo's cop power, but don't answer until after wam.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Dec 27, 2018 6:15 am UTC

Alright, analysis time. Still trying to keep this game low key, so I'll be succinct. (no one told me this was secretly a deathy...)

Tone analysis:
Town
mpolo - cop claim when under no pressure, trying to be helpful with the mark situation while being contentious of not giving away too much too scum. Very townie mindset
plytho - Townie levels of frustration at end of D1 seem sincere.

SJ - Seems like newbie town, but now that we have something concrete to analyze he has disappeared. Where have you gone SJ? Will slid down the scale if he doesn't weigh in with real opinions on the current situation.
moody - Cop claim is unlikely to be generated by him on his own. I doubt he is scum unless he has a bold scum partner, mostly only Sabrar and maaaaybe
Bessie - Seems like she is trying to figure things out and is reasonably confused. I think scum!Bessie would have gone on the offensive by now, probably on plytho. Not sure but leaning town.
MoA - I expected town MoA to express more surprise that he wasn't lynched. Scum MoA had hope that his buddies would save him and doesn't want to emphasis the fact that he was saved. Besides that mostly townie tone.

wam - Claimed cop only under pressure. Choose targets poorly. Has acted scummy all game. Discounted because all of that is very possible for town wam.
LaserGuy - Not caring about the vote-off order of Mark+Wam is scummy.
Mark - Accidentally claimed cop and then backpedaling inconsistently about it.
Sabrar - Pushing vote-bait candidates all game. Not trying to break the obviously breakable game in town's favor. Ignored the possibility of GF in moody's results. Not caring about the vote-off order of wam+Mark even after GF idea is raised is also scummy. Very suspicious.

I'm going to assume that mpolo is a real cop. I will try to avoid the dreaded lemma 0.

If all the cops are real and there is no GF:
Mark is scum.
MoA and Sabrar are mafia buddies.
One of LaserGuy/Bessie/Me is scum.
This seems unlikely as Sabrar would have had to buss MoA hard, and I don't think Sabrar fully expected me to fight him on the MoA vote as hard as I did.

If all the cops are real and there is a GF:
One of Mark/MoA must be scum (and not GF)
One of LaserGuy/Bessie/Me must be scum
There is exactly one other scum who is a GF (this could be someone in the above pairs, so for example Mark and MoA could both be scum if one is a GF)

LaserGuy, Mark, Sabrar - With moody's claim, bussing Mark makes sense at this point, so the votes there aren't strongly telling. This fits the logical requirements and tone analysis and is my leading theory.
Bessie, and MoA are still possible, but I think in any of these scenarios it would be shocking if Mark is not scum.

wam is scum and lying and no GF:
Mark and wam are scum, and two more (definitely not considering mpolo/moody/MoA or Sabrar) and probably not Laser/Bessie/Me, so probably plytho and SJ. Maybe indies in the Laser/Bessie/Me pile - unlikely as I find plytho/SJ to be townie.
OR
wam, MoA, Sabrar and one other is scum - Super unlikely as Sabrar would have been bussing really hard all game.

wam is scum and lying and there is a GF:
wam is scum, Almost any 2 others can be scum. (MoA, Mark, and Sabrar have to be GF to be scum.) LaserGuy/Bessie/Me are probably not wam's buddies. That leaves at least one of plytho/SJ as scum. By tone I find that unlikely.

moody is scum and lying and no GF:
moody is scum
wam, Mark and MoA are likely town. Sabrar is therefore likely town unless GF.
At least one of Laser/Bessie/Me are scum. probably 2 since the other candidates are plytho/SJ
GF is less likely since there are only two comparison cops.

Conclusions:
Mark is probably scum.
If wam and moody are town then Sabrar is mafia GF.
If wam is town then one of Bessie/LaserGuy/Me is scum (obviously but it's worth emphasizing)
If Mark and wam are town then moody is scum OR MoA+Sabrar are scum.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Dec 27, 2018 6:19 am UTC

About moody's power. I'm tempted to ask him to submit a list of all town. It would tell us whether there are 2 or 4 people who register as scum. That would clear up a lot of possibilities. But it seems so wasteful. There should be a "correct" number of people to try putting on the naughty list, but I'm not sure how many that is.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Dec 27, 2018 5:08 pm UTC

@Bessie: I'd considered it, but holding off on the vote-off is a high cost. And in the case that wam does have his claimed power, voting him off is worse then voting off Mark. In the case that wam does not have his claimed power, the gift switcher will prove that and we will have a garunteed vote-off target Tomorrow. (On further consideration I the switcher should definitely target wam, not moody)

LaserGuy wrote:I'm curious to see how this works out since you were mod-confirmed voteless today. I'm not sure if this oversight is townie for you or not.

Why are you so interested in determining whether people's powers have targets? What does it gain us to reveal this information publicly?

Well crap... I'd forgotten about the restriction. I was told if be punished if I voted too so I'm sure this will be lovely...

The claimed powers are already public, getting the details public doesn't help scum. But it does prevent wiggle room in the claimers of they are contradicted later. You wouldn't want a tracker to claim "I saw moody visit the NK target" and the moody says, "oh, I target everyone."

@Sabrar: The end conclusions you don't agree with are because it is taking tone into consideration as well. Not just logic.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Dec 27, 2018 5:22 pm UTC

If scum Mark is on the team with the gift switcher then this makes sense. But I do feel more likely that the gift switcher is town...

@Mark: why not protect the claimed cop?
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Dec 27, 2018 5:23 pm UTC

@Bessie and LG: Do you feel Sabrar is town?
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Dec 27, 2018 5:46 pm UTC

I'm going to try and focus on work, so I doubt I will post for the rest of the day. I'm a lot more okay with the wam vote-off then I was, so I guess we'll just see what happens.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Dec 28, 2018 4:27 am UTC

SuicideJunkie wrote:I'll take that as an objection and let things be.

Indeed, there's no reason to cut off discussion. There is far from consensus.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:18 pm UTC

I don't have the RL time or attention for this so here's what you get:

Plytho is right, obviously, once it's been said out loud. We are essentially in a deathy. The correct strategy in a deathy is to no lynch until MYLO because 2+ cops getting publicly claimed results is more info then a lynch gets us. We've already got the voting patterns for D2, we don't actually need to lynch. Between the cops and gift switcher we will gain a ton of information.

@mpolo: why does scum Mark mean scum BF?

@Sabrar: I'll get to those when I can. Why are you not trying to break the game? The only reason I can think of is that you are disgruntled scum.

@All: we should NL
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:19 pm UTC

We could also vote off a non-cop. I recommend LaserGuy or Sabrar. However I know I will be a top consideration for this and don't have the RL time to defend myself.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:34 pm UTC

On third thought, since all the players we'd consider voting off are also players that would need to be NKed if town we get the most advantage by No Lynching.

@Bessie: just remembered your question: My feeling that the gift switcher is town is not strong, but I think a real motivation to use the power for many players would be "because it's fun". Withholding is boring.

@Mark: You haven't answered why you didn't protect the cop.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:08 am UTC

@Sabrar: You are either wam or Mark are town then No Lynch is better. If you are town, you are letting confirmation bias run rampent.

MoA could be GF. Moody could be scum and lying, there could be a GF and one of Mark/wam is town.

Why do you have LG so solidly not-mafia but not solidly town?
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:42 am UTC

wam's read list is terrible. Mpolo is 3rd scummiest? With a confirmed starting cop power!?

I'm fine with voting-off wam now. (adding to LaserGuy's theory that I'm buddies with Mark :roll: )

Gift switcher should take Marks gift away from him.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:05 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:How about you also answer my questions?
I was getting to it, but with my limited time other messages and analysis were a priority.

BoomFrog wrote:Because wam is lynch-bait. He's always scummy, and I've seen nothing extra scummy about him this game.
But it was enough so you put him second scummiest here. You can't have it both ways.
No one was really unusually scummy D1 compared to their standard content, our collective town to scum list practically matched Bessie's "no content meta reads list". Our vote-off was practically random. Second scummiest was hardly a strong position. (same reason bessie and LG were able to come down so much from D1, although bessie is mostly back up)
BoomFrog's D1 wam read wrote:wam's content is quite scummy, but he is scummy as town as well. I'm still leaning scum on him but am reluctant to vote him off D1 and I think his alignment will be revealed more as the game goes on.
A slight scum lean D1 is nothing to write home about. I don't see how you see inconsistency in this read. "nothing" extra scummy might be an oversimplification, but even now with his terrible reads list I won't be shocked if wam is town. wam is lynch-bait.

BoomFrog wrote:Well if the gift switcher dosn't cooperate then we know they are scum, since it's an obviously beneficial move for town.
Except when the player is stubborn and s/he has other ideas (see Madge in Shakespeare III). Breaking the game only works if we mass-claim and can avoid rule 7.
Sure, a stubborn player would have to justify themselves later and we'd evaluate that. Everything is flexible, but we had reasonable confidence that the gift switcher would be pressured into being cooperative. With 3 claimed cops and some kind of protective power and the gift switcher we had enough to work with to be very likely to gain a lot of info each night. You're not even trying to break the game a little.

BoomFrog wrote:Also, that is absurd that you consider wam to be "leading" since he is only leading due to Vote of Mod.
Why would that be a 'Vote of Mod'??? It clearly comes from an ability, meaning someone found wam scummy enough to place it on him. How is that different from any other vote?
It could be from a player who is also voting normally and therefore a double vote. Having a double vote doesn't make me feel your scumhunting is worth more then others. Also an unclaimed vote has a higher chance of being scum motivated then a normal vote since it's less traceable.

BoomFrog wrote:Alright, analysis time.
You're not analysing the scenario where scum!wam is actually telling the truth. It's a convenient result either way. This is especially relevant in the most likely 'wam is scum and lying and there is a GF' scenario.
If wam is scum but telling the truth and there is a GF, then scum is wam, LG/Bessie/Me and one other. In this case we are really left with just regular scumhunting. This is the most ambiguous situation, the cop analysis doesn't really help here.

BoomFrog wrote:Conclusions:
Mark is probably scum.
This is not a valid conclusion from the analysis alone. Just from a pure math pov you have scenarios 1 and 3 where Mark would be scum, 5 as town, 2 and 4 could go either way. However looking at it from math pov is also wrong.

BoomFrog wrote:If wam and moody are town then Sabrar is mafia GF.
This is incorrect. Mark + GF (from plytho, SJ, bessie, LaserGuy, BoomFrog) + 3rd scum (from bessie, LaserGuy, BoomFrog) also satisfies all Cop results.
As I quickly said earlier, I'm not trying to look only from math, so that's not very relevant. Including regular scum hunting in the mix my conclusions seem sound to me.

BoomFrog wrote:I won't advise on who specifically to pick since that would let scum know if they need to prioritize killing/RBing you or not.
So why has this not happened? Why was cop!wam left alone? Refer to WoT3 once more.
Indeed, I question why wam lived through the night. That's part of why I've been assuming that Mark's protection of me wasn't what stopped the NK. But there may be a lack of strongmen/ninja on the mafia team and they were reluctant to target the obvious target. There is so much ambiguity in NKs that it is hard to safely draw conclusions.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:15 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:BoomFrog:
his Sabrar/bessie/moody reads all seem quite o.O to me.
Sabrar is driving the game. But is he driving it in a good direction? I guess we'll see if wam flips scum or not. But until then we have no evidence that his contributions have been townie. (And I have evidence that at least one of his reads is wrong, so why is it surprising that my read is different then yours?) Why have you not at least considered the point of "Sabrar is not trying to break the game"?

BoomFrog wrote:moody - Cop claim is unlikely to be generated by him on his own. I doubt he is scum unless he has a bold scum partner, mostly only Sabrar and maaaaybe
Bessie - Seems like she is trying to figure things out and is reasonably confused. I think scum!Bessie would have gone on the offensive by now, probably on plytho. Not sure but leaning town.

I forgot to finish my sentence apparently on the moody read. That was going to say "maaaaybe LaserGuy". Besides the implication that Bessie would be the one to get moody to false-claim cop was anything else shocking about my moody and Bessie reads?
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:19 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:If you can manage it somehow, I'd like to ask for a replacement — I am not finding the time I hoped to find, and I will be completely offline from Jan. 7-16, which is going to be major gametime here.

I can try to limp along until you find someone.

Please presubmit your night action if you can, just in case. And make like 3 useless posts just so we can get your post count up for Sabrar.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:20 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:Stuff

Why haven't you gotten your post count up like Bessie asked?
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (pregame)

Postby dimochka » Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:54 pm UTC

Everyone but Mark has confirmed, so let's get y'all started.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (pregame)

Postby dimochka » Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:59 pm UTC

D1: 'Twas the Knight Before Christmas


jimbobmacdoodle: The Wheel of Time turns, and Ages come and pass, leaving memories that become legend. Legend fades to myth…

dimochka: Err… Jimbob?

Jimbob: ... and even myth is long forgotten when the Age that gave it birth comes again. In one Age, called the…

dimochka: JIMBOB! Wrong game!

Jimbob: Oh, oops…. Let's try again. *Ahem*

There was a great hubbub going on in the Great Hall of Castle Xkcdia. All the Knights of the Square Table were gathered from across the land, along with the dozens of squires, ladies, priests, and assorted hangers on that accompanied them. All of them had gathered to prepare for the Grand Quest that took place over the Christmas Festival. Same as every year, much glory and fame was promised to those who succeeded.

Seated at the head table was Sir Jimbob, representative of the Great Lord Randall, in place by a vote of his peers, for the land was a “true” democracy (at least that's what the voting nobles told the peasants). As the last of the guests clanked into the Hall (for some reason it was considered fashionable to wear full plate to dinner around here), he rose to his feet.

“Honoured guests,” he shouted, trying to get the attention of everyone, with little success. Sighing, he turned to one of the court trumpeters and signalled to them. A loud fanfare followed, which silenced the chatter immediately.

“Ahem,” he began again. “Honoured guests, you are welcome once more to this fine castle, to celebrate the annual festival of Saint Nicholas. You are of course already well aware of what is to take place. We will soon begin our quest.”

One of the knights turned to his neighbour at that, looking a bit confused, “Quest? I thought we were just here to eat!?” The other knight sighed.

Sir Jimbob continued on. “Now you will all have received a letter explaining the rules as usual. The only thing left to do is for the court jester to assign you all your nicknames for this year's adventure. I have no idea why we do this, but if I end up with Sir KnightyMcKnightFace again, I think I might seek a new entertainer…

“Let me take this chance to remind you all that practical jokes and rank incompetence are strictly forbidden, and any culprits will be swiftly disposed of in a most appropriate manner.

“Enjoy your food. The quest will begin at dawn. Don't be late, or you will bring shame on yourself and your house.”


Day 1 begins now. Deadline will be in approximately 5 days.

Votals:

Not voting: Everybody

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Last edited by dimochka on Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:04 pm UTC, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby dimochka » Tue Dec 18, 2018 4:46 pm UTC

Votals:

wam (2): LaserGuy, MasterOfAll
MasterOfAll (3): BoomFrog, Sabrar, plytho
Mark_Cangila (1): wam

A bit over 1 Day + 4 Hours to go.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby dimochka » Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:26 am UTC

Sir Jimbob glanced at the sun, and decided that it may soon be time to end this part of the quest.

"Soon, but not quite yet. I'll let them enjoy it just a bit longer." He thought.


Votals:

wam (1): MasterOfAll
MasterOfAll (4): BoomFrog, Sabrar, plytho, LaserGuy
Mark_Cangila (1): wam

Deadline is 9pm UTC, Wednesday 19th December in roughly 16.5 hours.
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