Unlikely Superheroes (Day 6)

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby moody7277 » Tue May 21, 2019 3:57 pm UTC

SuicideJunkie wrote:The value should grow a little after I'm dead.


Odd thing to say about a "No Result" result. The main things which grow in value after you're dead (assuming you flip town) are your opinions of other player, of which you have given none. Can I pre-register a vote for D3?
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue May 21, 2019 4:39 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Vote: BoomFrog

PS: Lynch All Lurkers

Um... BoomFrog is hardly lurking that much, or is the PS in relation to someone else?
SuicideJunkie wrote:1) I've sneakyposted the disadvantages upthread and can point them out if required.
Not good enough. You've posted multiple things that could be disadvantages, or might not be. Please summarise them all in one place. Also, why sneaky post them?
SuicideJunkie wrote:2) I'm pretty sure I did; re "I can't be falsely accused of murder if nobody dies"
Yes, you said that, but why separate yourself from town? It is no worse for you than any other town member for town!you to die.
SuicideJunkie wrote:That is a thing, unfortunately. I guessed wrong last night, and couldn't help, this time I'm pretty sure I can help, but there's no trust.
There's no trust because you've done very little to earn it and a lot to lose it.
moody7277 wrote:Can I pre-register a vote for D3?
I already have dibs on that.

I think we're at L-1?
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby dimochka » Tue May 21, 2019 4:48 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
Sabrar wrote:Vote: BoomFrog

PS: Lynch All Lurkers

Um... BoomFrog is hardly lurking that much, or is the PS in relation to someone else?

Pretty sure it's related to whoever is lurking, not BF. And yes, L-1.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby somitomi » Tue May 21, 2019 4:49 pm UTC

SuicideJunkie wrote:
somitomi wrote:
SuicideJunkie wrote:Since there still seems to be problematic confusion on the issue:
I have some theories on the No Result.
A) Dimochka is an invalid target for me, either temporarily or permanently.
B) No Result is the result.
C) I was roleblocked directly.
D) Splash effect from something on Dimochka.

So which one is most likely in your opinion and why? What do you mean by "no result is the result" for that matter?

In order of likelihood, in my limited skill opinion.

Why would dimochka be an invalid target for you?
SuicideJunkie wrote:Also, since it was asked later in the thread, I am told I can't distinguish between different flavours of No Result.

I still don't know why you didn't ask this right after getting a no result, but I might chalk it up to inexperience.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby LaserGuy » Tue May 21, 2019 5:00 pm UTC

D2 has ended. No more posting.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Night 2)

Postby LaserGuy » Tue May 21, 2019 5:07 pm UTC

D2 Final votals:

BoomFrog (5): wam, freezeblade, moody, dimochka, Sabrar ---> LYNCH
SuicideJunkie (3): bessie, BoomFrog, somitomi

Not voting: jimbobmacdoodle, SuicideJunkie


After much deliberation, another member of the group was brought forward, accused of innumerable crimes. He was taken into custody while the remaining heroes parted ways to search the night for more clues.

BoomFrog has been lynched. His role will be revealed in the morning.

N2 has begun. Deadline for night action submission in 27 hours because that's when I'll be able to get around to it.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed May 22, 2019 8:19 pm UTC

As the sun rises, the Unlikely Superheroes return to the mayor's office to hear the fate of the accused. He was a strange man, seemingly dressed as a monk.

"Well, what do you have to say for yourself?" asked the mayor.

"I am beyond your comprehension," replied the man placidly.

"Well, are you a hero or a villain?" continued the mayor.

"Yes," replied the monk.

"What does that mean?" demanded the mayor.

"It means you are a less than a gnat to me. I am the beginning and the end of the universe and everything in it."

The mayor shook his head. "This one is clearly deranged. He will be processed at Mahkra Asylum until we figure out what can be done with him."

He turned to the heroes, "What news from the night?"

"Someone was murdered!" replied Captain Overpants.

"It was the Quantum Detective! His body was found being gnawed on by gophers in an abandoned field not far from here," continued the Ugly Duckling. "We've taken the gophers in for questioning, but so far they aren't talking."

The mayor frowned, "We must get to the bottom of this at once! Back to work!"


BoomFrog was sent to Mahkra asylum. He was Yang, aligned with the Unlikely Supervillains.

Role PM:
Spoiler:
Yang

You are primordial chaos. Unfeeling, ruthless. The entropy of the universe that slowly destroys all. But also, the same chaos that is itself the progenitor of the dynamics of the universe, of life itself. For without chaos, all would be static, dead.

Powers: On even nights, you are a reflexive rolestopper. Anyone who targets you will be protected from all non-killing actions, and you may not use the factional night kill. On odd nights, you have no powers, but have access to the factional night kill.

You are an Unlikely Supervillain with <redacted> and have daychat with them available in your QT here. You win when all opposing factions are defeated or nothing can prevent this from occurring.

He was a member of the Church of Moo.


freezeblade was killed in the night. He was the Quantum Detective, aligned with Town.

Role PM:
Spoiler:
The Quantum Detective:

You once worked as a theoretical physicist, immersed in the realms of String Theory, well on your way to solving the deepest mysteries of the universe and win an uncountably large number of Nobel Prizes. Unfortunately, one night you were running a calculation that required so much computational power that you felt the need to temporarily borrow the resources of the entire campus network. Regrettably, a sign error in your formula resulted in a nonsense result. Also regrettably, your exploits may have accidentally overheated ten million dollars in server hardware and resulted in your termination. Having nothing better to do, you decided to apply your knowledge of the universe to the more mundane task of investigating crimes.

Powers:

Uncertainty cop: Each night you may target a player. If they do not move (take an action targeting another player) during the night, then you will receive a cop result on them. If they do move, you will receive a tracker result on them instead. This is a two-shot ability.

You are Town and win when all anti-Town factions are eliminated.
Last edited by LaserGuy on Wed May 22, 2019 9:02 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed May 22, 2019 8:21 pm UTC

Day 3 has begun. Deadline on Tuesday May 28

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 22, 2019 8:37 pm UTC

Lurkers, lurkers everywhere
In the shadows, in the air
What good reason or prayer
Could lure them from their deep dark lair?

PS: my sincere apologies to Mr Blake

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed May 22, 2019 8:44 pm UTC

Vote SuicideJunkie

As promised. Though I guess I should actually look at his track record versus BoomFrog and Vicarin before I really commit here, and consider the information in the flips. I suspect we don't have any more scum factions beyond the two revealed ones out there. Interesting that BoomFrog's flip doesn't say anything about the Church of Moo, but since freezeblade flipped town, and BoomFrog's win condition isn't to do with the Church, I think that means that wam is at worst an indie faction who can win with town. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if BoomFrog has exactly one buddy called "Ying" whose ability is similar to BoomFrog's, but for odd nights. That would explain the lack of NK night 1. I also think dimochka should claim who he targeted N1, because I bet he targeted BoomFrog's buddy, hence why SuicideJunkie got No Result. Though I also think that means we need SuicideJunkie to claim. I suggest that SuicideJunkie claim before dimochka, but am open to suggestions.

Will try to do some more reads now.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed May 22, 2019 9:02 pm UTC

Actually, I forgot to include the Church of Moo in BoomFrog's flip. Updated.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby moody7277 » Wed May 22, 2019 9:48 pm UTC

Full claim from SuicideJunkie or noose.

For as long in the day as BoomFrog's lynch seemed certain, bussing could have happened at any point, but the earliest three voters are mostly town, conf town, town FMPOV. On the other wagon we have conf scum, one really townie looking lady, and somi; but the other wagon is a really valid looking target as well.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed May 22, 2019 10:15 pm UTC

dimochka (previously slightly townie/4th towniest):
Spoiler:
Analyses BoomFrog. Identifies less involved content than expected, and finds some opinions to be strange. Thinks he's reacting to small things, and votes BoomFrog. Around at deadline. Points out ties result in No Lynch, and will tie break if needed. BoomFrog didn't change his mind.

D2. Slow start to D2, with first post not until Friday. No logical reason not to trust freezeblade's power. BF should be lynch target, and we should focus on the rest of the group. Thinks 7-2-2 logical, complicated by cult; 7-2-1-1 not unreasonable. No idea why SJ didn't get a result, but doesn't think this implies he's lying, putting it at very low. Thinks other powers were in play. Wonders who might have had it out for him. Doesn't see how SJ assumes another kill power. Suggests cult might be more of a red herring. Thinks BF has too many holes in his case to be perfectly townish indie. Still thinks he's scum. Thinks SJ's info was volunteered too randomly to be lying, but doesn't indicate he's not scum. Reviews rest of his list: wam downgraded to neutral at best, based on setup; BF dead last, thinks might be SK, but otherwise in other mafia; SJ remains scummy; freezeblade townie; moody, bessie, me at the top; somitomi town-ish. Was available around deadline in case anything weird happens. Thinks somitomi is nit-picking. Somewhat agrees with somitomi's setup comments. Thinks scum might have targeted him to frame him, or possible moody or bessie might have targeted him. Thinks more likely that SJ was targeted by someone. Votes BoomFrog.
dimochka's end of D1 could be considered suspicious due to his apparent sitting on the fence on the main wagons. His offer to tie break is NAI, given he didn't actually do so (though a minor point for the earlier underline vote indicating his preference of the leading wagons). Had BoomFrog flipped non-scum, I would have found his statement correcting Sabrar's reasoning on BoomFrog re. "changing his mind" very townie, given he was actually voting BoomFrog at the time. I think that he'd have been happy for Sabrar to build up suspicion of BoomFrog if he was trying to actually push his lynch. That being said, BoomFrog's scum flip means that dimochka could have been trying to deflect some pressure from his buddy, given that BoomFrog wasn't in any real danger of being lynched. Overall, I put it all at null, maybe ever so slightly townie. His continued pressure on BoomFrog into day 2 (stating that he thought he should be the lynch target), whilst not steering away from looking at others, looks good, though is reduced by the fact that freezeblade's result was already public by this point. Overall, I still get a slightly townie read off of him. He could be (one of?) Vicarin's buddy, but I don't think he's BoomFrog's team-mate.

moody (leaning town/second towniest):
Spoiler:
Acknowledges that PW's previous post looks worse in retrospect. D1 votable/non-votable list with dimochka/PW/SJ in votables, Vicarin/freezeblade in unsure.

D2. Cynical view of wam updated setup is that he's on the other scum team. Wipes somitomi slate clean. BoomFrog response to freezeblade looks good, in that he's not countering FB's assertions. Thinks Church is low probability/high impact cult thing. dimochka setup looks incredibly foresighted. freezeblade looks good from claims, wam is non-town, BF looking bad. Confused by SJ posting, and if he is a threat, we can wait. Thinks Apps are main threat. Updates wam to townie side of the street. Does dimochka analysis. Notes that he agrees with most of his positions, but little of Vicarin a little concerning. Gives +1 to +3 score. Thinks bessie being obsessed with his PW/somitomi opinion is cute. Analysis of SJ. Gives +2.5 conclusion, as D1 content feels like disgruntled townie. Explains this more to Sabrar. freezeblade placement in somitomi's list seems odd. Has FB at +9 or so. SJ opinion of the role is overblown. Discusses SJ reactions with Sabrar. Is SJ or BF bigger threat? Votes BoomFrog. Didn't want to wait for backup due to risk of being accused of hedging. Wants to pre-register an SJ vote for D3. Opinions grow in value after death.
moody seemed to pick a little at the low-hanging fruit during D2, namely of BoomFrog and SuicideJunkie, without posting much about anybody else, aside from an analysis of dimochka. There is no reference at all to some players (me at least anyway). His BoomFrog vote looks pretty good, because he could probably have gotten behind a SuicideJunkie lynch without too much difficulty, but has to be mitigated by freezeblade's cop result and a possibility of a bus. Could easily be a Vicarin buddy. Not sure that he is a BoomFrog buddy. Overall, leaning slightly townie, but not as much as before, due to lack of updated reads D2.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed May 22, 2019 10:16 pm UTC

EBWOP: I may not get much chance to post further reads of people, but I'll see if I can on my bus rides tomorrow.

From Friday through to a week on Monday, I am away, with varying degrees of access to the game. I'll continue to contribute, but especially later next week, if I survive to D4, it might be difficult.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby bessie » Thu May 23, 2019 1:51 am UTC

Goshfrickingdarnit....... I’m so annoyed at being so wrong about the setup. Or maybe I’m just annoyed because BoomFrog isn’t dying of love for me me me.

I have nothing that I can see would be helpful to claim.

LaserMod wrote:freezeblade was killed in the night. He was the Quantum Detective
So, SuicideJunkie, how did you know this on D2?

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4454996#p4454996
SuicideJunkie wrote:I'll have to try and parse out everything, but first impression is that D2 should be following the quantum cop and then lynching him if it is a lie.

Quantum cop is not what freezeblade claimed:
http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4454949#p4454949
freezeblade wrote:I am an uncertainty cop: I target someone at night, if they don't move, I cop them. If they move, I track them.
When I saw your “quantum cop” comment on D2 I thought physics joke yesss 8-). But now I feel that perhaps you had some extra information.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Vote SuicideJunkie

As promised. Though I guess I should actually look at his track record versus BoomFrog and Vicarin before I really commit here
That’s fine. I didn’t believe you would stick to your vow in this post anyway.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I also think dimochka should claim who he targeted N1, because I bet he targeted BoomFrog's buddy, hence why SuicideJunkie got No Result.
I already claimed that I targeted dimochka N1 and that he was not untargetable. Why are you still looking for reasons to clear SuicideJunkie? Or are you perhaps setting up to flip it to "BoomFrog’s buddy protects anyone who targets him from killing actions, and gives No Result on non-killing actions" (which interestingly would clear SuicideJunkie would implicate me).

moody7277 wrote:one really townie looking lady
Even if Madge was playing this would still be me. :P

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby wam » Thu May 23, 2019 6:41 am UTC

Right I'm back.

But I have warned laser I will have 0 internet access between sat morning and Monday.

So with one from each of those teams finding the partners should be easier...

So glad we didn't let boom talk his way out of it.

I also want a dull claim from SJ

Let's prod

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu May 23, 2019 8:19 am UTC

Don't think it makes much difference to where I stand at the moment, but just realised that there's no confirmation that wam is town or even indie, only that he is not aligned with BoomFrog. He could theoretically be Vicarin's buddy, although I'm not convinced by this looking at the votals timeline: he switched off BoomFrog to push Vicarin's wagon as a different counterwagon to SuicideJunkie when the votals were at V 1, BF 2, SJ 3. Pushing Vicarin's lynch at that point as a buddy, rather than BoomFrog's, would not have been a smart move, since it moves away from a safe counterwagon to an unsafe one, and indeed one that led to Vicarin's lynch.

wam wrote:I also want a dull claim from SJ
Hopefully it's a full one too :lol:

bessie wrote:I’m so annoyed at being so wrong about the setup. Or maybe I’m just annoyed because BoomFrog isn’t dying of love for me me me.
Some of us aren't surprised in the slightest... :roll:
bessie wrote:So, SuicideJunkie, how did you know this on D2?
This is a very interesting spot. I am interested in the response too.
bessie wrote:That’s fine. I didn’t believe you would stick to your vow in this post anyway.
The vow was as much about pressure as anything else. Plus we have juicy info now to get stuck into. I still want a claim from him, or he might have to go anyway.
bessie wrote:I already claimed that I targeted dimochka N1 and that he was not untargetable. Why are you still looking for reasons to clear SuicideJunkie?
You're right, you did, sorry, and that does put a possible spanner in the works. But I'm not looking to clear SuicideJunkie here, I'm looking to find BoomFrog's buddy. What is your guess about BoomFrog's buddy's power?
bessie wrote:Or are you perhaps setting up to flip it to "BoomFrog’s buddy protects anyone who targets him from killing actions, and gives No Result on non-killing actions" (which interestingly would clear SuicideJunkie would implicate me).
That hadn't been my plan, no, though now that you mention it... But really, no that doesn't make sense unless there's a third killing power out there controlled by you, or the buddy!bessie's power is not restricted similar to BoomFrog's.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby wam » Thu May 23, 2019 9:10 am UTC

@jimbob

My read of booms role PM is that he tried the n1 kill and I blocked it.

It also shows the being a member of the church of moo does not change your win con.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu May 23, 2019 9:17 am UTC

wam wrote:My read of booms role PM is that he tried the n1 kill and I blocked it.
That is my belief too, assuming I'm correct about mirrored restriction for his buddy (hinted at by Boom's name apart from anything else). If I'm not correct about that, it does bring up the whole "why would BoomFrog perform the kill" issue again.

wam wrote:It also shows the being a member of the church of moo does not change your win con.
I agree it shows this, but I think this only confirms you as a) not cult, and b) not BoomFrog's buddy. It doesn't clear you of being a semi-loud roleblocker aligned with the Apps. See, for example, the scum Doctor Mario role from Crossover, which left notes behind that allowed tracing of who had been targeted.

It should be obvious that you should not claim who you targeted until everybody else who is going to claim has claimed, and even then maybe not then. BTW, can't remember if I asked this, but does your target know you targeted them? In other words do they actually get told they're in the Church?
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby wam » Thu May 23, 2019 9:25 am UTC

@jimbob

I dont know if they get told. I will ask the mod.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby somitomi » Thu May 23, 2019 9:43 am UTC

I don't think there's anything I need to claim.
bessie wrote:Goshfrickingdarnit....... I’m so annoyed at being so wrong about the setup. Or maybe I’m just annoyed because BoomFrog isn’t dying of love for me me me.

Did anyone say "told you so" yet? :P
Oh wait, Jimbob did, never mind.
wam wrote:@jimbob
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
bessie wrote:So, SuicideJunkie, how did you know this on D2?
This is a very interesting spot. I am interested in the response too.

seconded along with "SJ should claim now".

I dont know if they get told. I will ask the mod.

I think yes, BoomFrog admitted to being in the Church before you clarified what it was. He could've been winging it, but I doubt it considering how well it lined up with your information. Unless you two are indeed in cahoots.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby somitomi » Thu May 23, 2019 9:43 am UTC

somitomi wrote:I think yes, BoomFrog admitted to being in the Church before you clarified what it was. He could've been winging it, but I doubt it considering how well it lined up with your information. Unless you two are indeed in cahoots.

EBWOP: but then it's all moot of course.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby Sabrar » Thu May 23, 2019 9:44 am UTC

Yes, it very much looks like wam blocked the only kill N1. N2 there could have been two attempted kills if the Apps decided to use their 1-shot, or they could have saved it. So wam might have blocked a second-kill or can possibly clear someone from being BF's buddy. Unfortunately we cannot distinguish between the two scenarios but depending on which we find more likely it could help limiting the possibilities.
It's also possible that freezeblade was double-attacked as the two remaining scum-teams couldn't have coordinated and he seemed to be by far the biggest threat.

7-2-2 looks likely, both scum-teams seem to be weaker than normal but 4 anti-town is probably the limit. Although wam's chaos game had town starting in the minority and this is moderate chaos. So I'm not ruling out a possible indie (but not SK) completely (or maaaybe 6-3-2) but I actually doubt it would be wam. The way he went about his power is townie, he is unlikely to be Survivor or Cult, the only possibility I can imagine is a weird Lyncher who must recruit and then lynch a number of other players (probably 2) in order to win.

Can an Indie win cause the game to end before either Town or Mafia had a chance to achieve their win-con?

I think bessie's attention to detail is townie.

I'd like to hear from dimochka and somitomi as well. (ninja-d).

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby somitomi » Thu May 23, 2019 9:45 am UTC

EBWOP2: How Did Those Two Quotes End Up Like That?

somitomi wrote:I don't think there's anything I need to claim.
bessie wrote:Goshfrickingdarnit....... I’m so annoyed at being so wrong about the setup. Or maybe I’m just annoyed because BoomFrog isn’t dying of love for me me me.

Did anyone say "told you so" yet? :P
Oh wait, Jimbob did, never mind.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
bessie wrote:So, SuicideJunkie, how did you know this on D2?
This is a very interesting spot. I am interested in the response too.

seconded along with "SJ should claim now".
wam wrote:@jimbob
I dont know if they get told. I will ask the mod.

I think yes, BoomFrog admitted to being in the Church before you clarified what it was. He could've been winging it, but I doubt it considering how well it lined up with your information. Unless you two are indeed in cahoots.[/quote]
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby somitomi » Thu May 23, 2019 9:45 am UTC

FFS, I give up.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby Sabrar » Thu May 23, 2019 11:08 am UTC

Going back to the argument for a moment that LaserGuy specifically wanted 11 people: 6-2-2 could theoretically have worked with sufficiently weak scum-teams. So 6-3-2 is most definitely out, we either have 6-2-2-1 (and my original suspicion that he really wanted to add an indie is correct) or LaserGuy did not feel comfortable about 6-2-2 and added another townie. In that case I believe scum is stronger than appears.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby dimochka » Thu May 23, 2019 1:55 pm UTC

Let's see. Vicarin's team has access to a one-shot NK. Now if SJ is Vicarin's teammate then he potentially could have used it last night to "protect" self from freezeblade. I think it's likely that if SJ is not Vic's buddy then the kill was not used. Also, it doesn't sound to me based on the description that there is another NK power here, but who knows.

Boomfrog likely used his team's NK N1, and wam claims that he blocked it. It is likely that Boomfrog's teammate used the NK N2 to kill Freezeblade.

And a quick (relevant) response to Jimbob - (a) You're assuming that I have a targeting power; that may not be the case, it could be reflexive or passive (and I don't just mean PGO or commuter). (b) I don't think revealing my night actions or results is going to provide any additional clarity at this point.

Anyways, what does this all mean?
- I think 7-2-2 or 6-2-2-1 are currently the most reasonable setup options. I still think that there could be an indie. I no longer think that we have an SK though.
- It is likely that N3 will not have a night kill. But based on Boomfrog's power on even nights, I expect his buddy to have some kind of power on odd nights that may mess with results... not that that's any different from scum in any other game...
- Alternatively, it seems Vicarin's team is not affected by day/night, so same conclusion as the one attributed to Boomfrog's buddy

I still believe SJ is scum. I don't think based on his interaction with Vicarin that they are buddies, but I think being Boomfrog's buddy is possible. I want to see a claim, and I support the lynch. HOWEVER, based on everything I said, I don't think it would be completely ridiculous to consider no lynching today (because I don't expect a kill). That does rely on people believing that another night can get us some useful results though, which with Freezeblade gone is less likely.
... actually I take that back. I don't think it's a good idea. I think a night result will be more helpful, but leaving this here as a discussion point.

What I plan to get to today is two T-S lists, one for each scum team. I think that would be more helpful than just one combined list.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby Sabrar » Thu May 23, 2019 3:11 pm UTC

Even though we're in a good position and probably could afford NL I don't think it's a good idea. There don't seem to be many night-results worth waiting for.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby moody7277 » Thu May 23, 2019 4:45 pm UTC

Sabrar on Vicarin

Spoiler:
dislikes Vicarin short-circuiting BF gambitting
wants arguments with him to be spontaneous
agrees with his point about SJ's role
puts him as second scummiest based on mostly reactionary content and bad reads list
reinterprets argument post as pseduo-townie
voting for SJ at this point, but tells jimbob he's willing to vote Vicarin
votes Vicarin in last post of D1


Seems like a consistent level of suspicion of Vicarin, becomes more explicit as the day goes on. Was next to last voting for Vicarin, but if he hadn't switched SJ would likely been lynched. Not teammates with Vicarin

Sabrar on BoomFrog

Spoiler:
D1
doesn't like BoomFrog's post with self vote
wants early read from him
chides him on lack of content
read on BoomFrog has large error bars, but feels off, 3rd scummiest
pokes him about wanting to lynch dimochka
possible Vic+BF team

D2
discounts Vic+BF team
open to BF lynch
starts to entertain possibility of indie!BF
points out BF adjusting claim based on other claims
identity of BF as on of his main issues
BF more dangerous as a player, SJ might have more dangerous ability
still including theory of Vic+BF team
votes BF


Has been a little suspicious of him all game, with the caveat that he's sometimes wrong about BF. The voting on BF was going to be slow because of it's inevitability meaning people wanted a maximum of discussion. Not BF's teammate.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby SuicideJunkie » Thu May 23, 2019 7:00 pm UTC

So, who is the New Moo?
I know for sure it wasn't Freezeblade, and it isn't me.

bessie wrote:
LaserMod wrote:freezeblade was killed in the night. He was the Quantum Detective
So, SuicideJunkie, how did you know this on D2?

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4454996#p4454996
SuicideJunkie wrote:I'll have to try and parse out everything, but first impression is that D2 should be following the quantum cop and then lynching him if it is a lie.

Quantum cop is not what freezeblade claimed:
http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4454949#p4454949
freezeblade wrote:I am an uncertainty cop: I target someone at night, if they don't move, I cop them. If they move, I track them.
When I saw your “quantum cop” comment on D2 I thought physics joke yesss 8-). But now I feel that perhaps you had some extra information.
Well, what can I say? It WAS a physics reference. I did take a Physics minor at Uni.
He claimed he can tell either the position or movement of a player, but never both; and this is a superhero game. In terms of low-hanging fruit, it was a truffle, IMO.



I visited Freezeblade, and my results were disappointing. All I know is that whomever Freeze was investigating, that person was visiting me. Since I'm not dead, Freeze's suspect isn't the killer.

As to claiming, now seems fine to explain to You Fools! I'LL SHOW YOU ALL!

My active power is as above; I can see the results of investigators I visit. Turns out to be not very useful without knowing their target.
(I was hoping to pull a useful reading from beyond the grave since the cop is an obvious target, or to corroborate the result if he was protected. Why no protection, people?!?)
Getting no result on Dimochka N1 means either one of us was blocked, and/or Dimo isn't an investigator, and/or Dimochka's result was "No Result" and I successfully saw that no result.

As to the passive downsides:
1) In the case of a tied vote, I get lynched. (Yep, Bessie. It could even be FIVE less votes required to lynch me early on, not just one or two, although admittedly town would try to avoid NLish things)
2) I'm added to the scene of every NK crime for investigators to see, (Watchers, trackers, custom roles, etc.) even if there are multiple deaths and I was busy doing a different thing, I'll be seen at all the deaths. In this N2 case, I was actually there, so the investigations won't be inaccurate due to my role.
3) My true actions are stealthed, so you'll only ever see me with dead people or idle, never doing innocent things.

I don't know if Laserguy will keep me appearing at death scenes even after I'm lynched; that would be amusing.

If you squint, and only have two words to summarize: Town Godfather :D
Still likely to be lynched I think, but not so much NKed.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby Sabrar » Thu May 23, 2019 7:16 pm UTC

I guessed 1).
2) and 3) seem way over the top.
I was hoping to pull a useful reading from beyond the grave since the cop is an obvious target
How would you have done so if you don't know who the dead cop targeted? Or do you receive the name as well? Then why don't you reveal who was tracked to you to actually prove your ability?

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu May 23, 2019 7:36 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I guessed 1).
2) and 3) seem way over the top.
I was hoping to pull a useful reading from beyond the grave since the cop is an obvious target
How would you have done so if you don't know who the dead cop targeted? Or do you receive the name as well? Then why don't you reveal who was tracked to you to actually prove your ability?
I think SuicideJunkie said that he doesn't receive the name:
SuicideJunkie wrote:Turns out to be not very useful without knowing their target.
More later if I can. Got a training webinar to watch.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby Sabrar » Thu May 23, 2019 7:55 pm UTC

Right, I missed that. So we have no way to verify him. The only thing anyone can corroborate is dimochka not being an investigative role and someone visiting SJ (who was potentially investigated by freezeblade).
Why would freezeblade not check SuicideJunkie though?

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby LaserGuy » Thu May 23, 2019 8:16 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Can an Indie win cause the game to end before either Town or Mafia had a chance to achieve their win-con?


No comment.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby wam » Thu May 23, 2019 8:53 pm UTC

Yeah so no dont believe that. I blocked sj last night.

So either I was also blocked or their lying.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby wam » Thu May 23, 2019 8:54 pm UTC

But that does mean sj is unlikely to be bf partner.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu May 23, 2019 9:12 pm UTC

On No Lynch:

I don't want to comment on whether there are many results to be found at this point, but I think No Lynching could just deny us a free mislynch, depending on how everything works out, and don't think it's the best plan right now. The lynch is our only real weapon. We get information from it even if we mislynch. For example, if we were to lynch town!SuicideJunkie we'd finally know what his role is and confirm his No Result. That could make bessie look bad, for example, because it might mean she's a rolestopper and is lying about getting a result on dimochka etc. Either that or we lynch town!dimochka and find out more about who he might have targeted/confirm that SuicideJunkie didn't get No Result based on dimochka's ability.

I'm still thinking about the Ying/Yang concept of abilities. I feel like their abilities would be related but not identical, ideally with some mirroring going on. The above suggested bessie-rolestopper (in contrast to a reflexive rolestopper) would fit that (cue bessie being unsurprised I bring this up), but I'm sure there are others. Similarly, a roleblocker would work here, but I don't think that wam could be that person.

Reads:

somitomi (previously had PW as slightly townie, but low on list):
Spoiler:
Asks for quick D1 summary. Wants to know why SJ claimed No Result. Good for town not good enough reason to support any assumption. Doesn't see connection between BF being RBed not moving and him performing the kill. Doesn't see BF modifying his claim. Wam is likely roleblocker who explains Church to target. Now understands claim modification point. If all are telling the truth, we have two roleblockers and neither can account for the NK. Claimed target my counterclaim, so lying is risky. Asks dimochka why he thinks SJ has low chance of lying. BF lack of Church claim pinged him, discusses cult!wam, but thinks more likely town!wam, mafia! BoomFrog. Moody or dimochka possible Vicarin buddies. Doesn't see reason for lying!SJ. Wam isn't a mason. Dimochka possibly lying due to setup spec. Thinks bessie setup spec too detailed and unbalanced. Questions Sabrar over wam copping as Moo comment. Asks SuicideJunkie about his theories re No Result. Rereads dimochka, notes possibility of him being Vicarin buddy. Nothing suspicious, but notes moody's observation about dimochka's foresighted setup spec. Thinks scum!SJ would explain why he shared his result, and doesn't think the result is fake. Confused by him volunteering the rather useless info. Has me towniest, Sabrar second in ordered list, BoomFrog, SuicideJunkie bottom. Not guaranteed multiball. SJ might be being overly dramatic about the negative utility of his role, but has gone beyond that. No issue with dimochka underline vote, but more concerned with him not following through on promise. Votes is on BoomFrog, but doesn't want to risk hammering. Wants to know where SJ is, votes for him as second choice and to try to show him pressure. Asks why dimochka would be an invalid target for him.

D3. Nothing needs to be claimed. Notes "told you so" on bessie. BF admitted to being in the Church, might have been winging it, but doubts it, unless wam and BF co-aligned. SJ should claim now.
Nothing stands out to me about somitomi's D2 and D3 play so far. Although he didn't vote for BoomFrog, he did make it clear that he was the preferred lynch choice for D2, but this is only slightly in his favour, due to the reactions to BoomFrog. Peaceful Whale didn't place a useful vote on D1, which is a point against somitomi. I'd like a more thorough reads list explaining the positions in his D2 list (or an updated version). I'm particularly surprised by the mid-range position of freezeblade since he had a cop claim and result. Some suspicions now, but nothing concrete, so marginal town lean. Could easily be a Vicarin buddy, but probably not BoomFrog.

I'm not going to get around to re-reading Sabrar or wam unfortunately. I'll try to find time to make posts over the next few days, but my activity will be limited at best. I should definitely have time for a post on the morning bus ride, but that'll be it for anything significant.

Summaries in order of towniness:

Town
wam - wam is very unlikely to be on BoomFrog's team, and is unlikely to be Vicarin's buddy based on his target choice for N1. Possibly an indie, but probably harmless if so.
dimochka - pushed BoomFrog a fair bit; generally feels okay, though I'm not convinced by his unwillingness to reveal more to help us explain the SuicideJunkie situation. Possibly a Vicarin buddy, not likely a BoomFrog buddy.
Sabrar - nothing pings me about Sabrar at all, besides the possibility of him being slightly quieter than usual. Unlikely to be a Vicarin buddy, since he swung the lynch against him. Also relatively unlikely to be BoomFrog's buddy, though I can't shake a niggle that BoomFrog consistently tried to push against him, and that it was a bit of a bus.
moody7277 - lack of reads on some players pushes him down a bit, but he has the BoomFrog vote going for him at least. Possible Vicarin buddy, but relatively unlikely BoomFrog buddy.
somitomi - as noted before, feels like he's putting in effort, but he needs to start posting more reads. As noted above, easy buddy for Vicarin, but not BoomFrog.
bessie - I'm getting a lot of pings from her, as noted in my read of her (too tied to a setup, responses feel like spinning or evasion, lack of explanations for some reads). Definitely a plausible BoomBuddy, due to her lack of a BoomFrog vote. Also plausibly a Vicarin buddy for similar reasons.
SuicideJunkie - I keep rethinking his claim - it does match up with his breadcrumbs, but the negative aspects seem like a lot compared to freezeblade's 2-shot or anything hinted at by anybody. Looking at the votals a bit more, I feel like he might be a Vicarin buddy at a stretch (only alternative counter-wagon late on was himself) - if so, I wouldn't be surprised by there being 3 Apps, if he's being truthful about his limitations. Only possibly useful info wrt BoomFrog is that BoomFrog voted him, but it's a light point. Ninja'ed - moved to bottom due to wam's claim.
Scum
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby dimochka » Thu May 23, 2019 9:48 pm UTC

And there goes my not claiming. Wam, you actually targeted moody. And if you are what you say you are, I'm guessing moody can corroborate this.

This does not clear SJ from anything else that was discussed, but I thought it important to clear up this confusion early on.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby moody7277 » Thu May 23, 2019 11:09 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:And there goes my not claiming. Wam, you actually targeted moody. And if you are what you say you are, I'm guessing moody can corroborate this.

This does not clear SJ from anything else that was discussed, but I thought it important to clear up this confusion early on.


Well that's weird, because I'm not Moo. Uncertain if this says anything about dimochka or wam, or some dickery with results or targeting.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 3)

Postby dimochka » Fri May 24, 2019 1:06 am UTC

Ok in this case I have no idea what else had happened. Anyone care to opine?
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