Well, I'm guessing I was not RB'd last night, since SirG seems to be aware of my presence. I'm guessing bessie informed him of the one-shot doc I gave her, hence his looking for confirmation that I sent stuff to both of them in his whole "who did you send things to?" message.
So, if I wasn't RB'd, could I have been redirected to SirG? If I was, he also got my totally signaling willingness to work with scum message that was intended for LaserGuy. If I was redirected, revealing myself ends with SirG getting me lynched. If I wasn't redirected, it really does look like LG was trying to signal me in that message early on ("if there is an indie, town may have already lost"). That would seem to imply that I was right that he is scum. Unfortunately it was apparently also a little too scum-indicating to Sabrar.
So we probably really do have 3 scum on the supernatural team. LG wouldn't really have an incentive to try to recruit my vote unless he knew scum had a chance of winning, either through vote manipulation, parity, or convincing enough townies to be on board with someone's lynch other than LG's. The last seems unlikely-ish, though I think GoP is giving some openings for his own lynch. If he's scum too, this will be a problem for my hope of winning with scum and avoiding the NK.
I need to re-read and figure out how Sabrar came to the conclusion we still have 3 scum.
So, the question is, at this point, am I kingmaker? Can I reveal my indy-ness?
Scum need me for parity purposes, so if they know I'm survivor, they probably won't kill me because I can help them win. If they kill me, they have to do so on the belief that they can continue to stay under the radar enough.
- Presuming LG is scum and lynched, we come out of night at either 4-2 or 3-2-1 depending on whether they kill me or not. Pattern continues as long as town keeps killing scum, or I can help them be at parity any of the following days. So I'm useful to them. (All this presumes no wackiness with votes to screw with parity, of course.)
- If town is lynched, we end day at even numbers of town and scum, so game ends in town loss.
- If I am lynched, day ends at 4-3. Which opens in the morning as town loss presuming NK is successful... Hmm.
If town know I'm survivor, they can't afford to kill me because they need to lynch scum, right?
- If town is lynched today, we are at 3-3-1 going into night. Scum goes after townie tonight (because of the previous paragraph's reasoning), putting us at 2-3-1 tomorrow -- town loss.
- If I am killed, game goes to night at 4-3 -- town loss again, presuming successful NK.
- If scum is killed and NK is successful, we wake up in the same situation tomorrow as today -- N+1 town, N scum, 1 survivor.
So by playing the factions against each other ("town, you need to make sure not to lynch me because if you do, scum win", "scum, I am your only chance at parity"), I *think* it is safe to reveal survivor? I'll have to think about it more before I claim. Thankfully I have seemed townie enough that people seem willing to let me claim late.