The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

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Vicarin
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:48 pm UTC

Chaos @LaserGuy

Spoiler:
Heh, glad you found that funny. I was trying to not waste too much time with it but thought that a straight town read didn't really convey my thoughts properly, and then bessie kept pestering me to justify my 'scumread' and ugh. I know that noone reads everyone properly D1, I was more worried that everyone seems to read bessie as town no matter what D1, and noone else finds that weird.

Whatever, as long as town doesn't go crazy claiming and the cult doesn't get out of control, we should be mostly fine. bessie fishing is crazy scummy so hopefully she comes under scrutiny.

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:59 pm UTC

Chaos @wam a bit

Spoiler:
Ha, just checked my ordered list and it's a scum sandwich between two town buns! At least I updated a bit on bessie and Sabrar. Just wish Madge hadn't just been shouting chaos repeatedly, I still hope for meta Madge, at least a bit :P.

mpolo not knowing his ability explains a fair bit about his play I guess, but maybe he should have expected to have something hidden? PR heavy high bastardry and all that.

@wam: who can moody recruit? And what stuff do the mafia have? Day chat logic by Sabrar was correct?

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:51 am UTC

Chaos

Spoiler:
Just realized with how much emphasis Sabrar is putting on reading the OP's rules, he would surely know that they say claiming role names is bad, even though I checked with wam and it seems like he meant claiming our character's names (I was Chalize [sic] Theron) to prevent working stuff out from the flavor. So, given how much he was saying about claims being normal, if he hadn't checked with wam about that rule, he'd have no leg to stand on as he'd clearly have known about the rule and yet was advocating for people getting punished. And if he had, yet was pushing people to still claim like usual, maybe he should have clarified that the rule wasn't exactly as it seemed?

Oh well, hindsight is 20/20 and all that. I'll have to get out the popcorn when D2 starts!

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby wam » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:27 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:Chaos @wam a bit

Spoiler:
Ha, just checked my ordered list and it's a scum sandwich between two town buns! At least I updated a bit on bessie and Sabrar. Just wish Madge hadn't just been shouting chaos repeatedly, I still hope for meta Madge, at least a bit :P.

mpolo not knowing his ability explains a fair bit about his play I guess, but maybe he should have expected to have something hidden? PR heavy high bastardry and all that.

@wam: who can moody recruit? And what stuff do the mafia have? Day chat logic by Sabrar was correct?


Chaos

Spoiler:
Mafia B have a god father and ninja basically. With some chaos tweaks. Mafia C have a strongman and a framer. Moody can't recruit 1 of each mafia, the sk and mpolo and Madge.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby wam » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:33 am UTC

Chaos

Spoiler:
so the rng has it out for Madge this game. Have run the redirects for boomfrogs all game re-direct. Madge is going to get a not town result on, boom, Bessie and sabrar. Now Madge will probably think she is paranoid but there will be a bit thinking it's her worst nightmare of a Bessie sabrar boom scum team.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:55 am UTC

Chaos @wam

Spoiler:
So if moody recruits a mafia member that he's able to, the other mafia in that team is basically completely screwed, right? Also, are the godfather, ninja, and framer only useful against Madge (ninja also affects super watcher BoomFrog I guess)? Oh, plytho hasn't said what he has, is he affected?

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby wam » Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:51 am UTC

Chaos @ vicarin

Spoiler:
it has happened before see avengers mafia! But basically it's so that the cult don't gain a kill. The recruited mafia member loses the ability to carry out the factional night kill. I haven't told Moody but basically recruit 1 inherits the recruit if he dies if both recruit 1 and Moody die the cult ends and any other recruits flip back to original alignment.

However boomfrog has managed to cause chaos. Moody is now trying to recruit himself! how I write the flavour without giving too much away is going to be interesting.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby wam » Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:00 am UTC

Chaos

Spoiler:
may have to 're word marks role.pm. I have said nothing can stop the kill but various players have 1 or 2 shot nk immunity and it shoikdnt work on that.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:01 am UTC

Chaos @wam:

Spoiler:
Huh, so the recruited mafia will have to be like "oh, I think you should do the kill" each night, without seeming suspicious? Amazing.

Also, interesting that BoomFrog decided to do the redirect N1 anyway, this should be hilarious.

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby wam » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:16 pm UTC

Chaos

Spoiler:
so with booms night 're direct and the actions so far submitted n1 is going to be chaos.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby MasterOfAll » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:21 pm UTC

Wamaos @ wam
Spoiler:
wam wrote:so with booms night 're direct and the actions so far submitted n1 is going to be chaos.
So . . . mission accomplished?

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby wam » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:24 pm UTC

Chaos @MOA

Spoiler:
Yep it's living up to the name! At the moment Mark is killing himself
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Sabrar » Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:06 pm UTC

wamaos mafia
Spoiler:
Musings of a Serial Killer

a.k.a. Why BoomFrog has to die


Being SK is hard. Our life is in constant danger from multiple sides, bloodhungry Town is out to lynch us, crafty scum wants to murder us in our sleep. With no protection whatsoever we have to rely on a combination of wine and luck to survive. Knowing that SK is in the game makes multi-ball less likely from our perspective as 3 deaths per night seems a tad too much. Of course this being a bastard game with no real consideration for balance makes any predictions moot but we have to start somewhere.

Our sacred duty is to eliminate everyone around us and this can be only achieved if both sides experience a reduction in their numbers on a similar trend. Assuming an 8-3-1 setup (approximately) this means that we should aim to have 2 townies killed for each scum, hoping to win the endgame with the help of our daykill or by a mislynch. We have to take it as a fact that scum will nk only townies as we simply cannot win if they choose to kill us. Therefore our own kill needs to be used to balance out the sides, killing scum after a mislynch, killing a townie if scum got the axe.

With only a limited number of kills at our disposition we may even want to hold back to avoid being observed however that is mostly a concern for later when there is only a limited number of targets for such powers. Similarly a pesky doc has better chance at blocking our kill at the later stages of the game, so despite the strategic value of withholding to cause confusion it is very possibly a bad avenue to explore. Also 2 kills reinforces the idea of multi-ball.

We planned to nk Vicarin in case Madge gets lynched and just claim Vig D2 (hopefully Vic is scum). We even breadcrumbed it so we could point at it later. Unfortunately that plan is off the rails, though we still might go with an even-night Vig claim (or some other flavor) if the opportunity presents itself.

If we accept the fact that we need to kill contrary to the lynch we need to find someone who is the most likely to not be co-aligned with Vicarin. That is definitely BoomFrog. They are most surely not on the same scum-team and I think town!BoomFrog would not err this much wrt town!Vicarin. In addition the way BoomFrog defended me gives me some creeps/sheep-vibes so in case Vic is actually town I think there is a huge likelihood that BoomFrog is scum.

Last consideration to be had is that we want to avoid targeting players whom scum or actual Vig also wants to kill. Depending on who the Vig is (if s/he exists) the most likely targets would be Madge or mpolo. If Vic is Town scum probably won't kill anyone on his wagon, especially the early wagon. If Vic is scum then there are a lot of juicy targets for them and it becomes impossible to predict their actions, especially without knowing their identity. So we simply have to hope for the best.

Tl;DR:
- We can't be worrying about observer roles catching us or being nk-d as we can't do anything against it anyway.
- We need to kill people on opposing sides.
- We might need the support of some of the stronger players who currently read us as town against those who have their suspicion but this is of less importance right now.
- Withholding seems unwise.
- Therefore we kill BoomFrog N1 and go from there.

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:15 pm UTC

wam wrote:Chaos @MOA

Spoiler:
Yep it's living up to the name! At the moment Mark is killing himself


Chaos

Spoiler:
Wow, that's a remarkably good result for BoomFrog. He gets one mafia to kill themself, blocks the recruit, and, I'm guessing, pushes Sabrar's planned NK onto someone else and keeps himself alive.

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby wam » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:07 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
wam wrote:Chaos @MOA

Spoiler:
Yep it's living up to the name! At the moment Mark is killing himself


Chaos

Spoiler:
Wow, that's a remarkably good result for BoomFrog. He gets one mafia to kill themself, blocks the recruit, and, I'm guessing, pushes Sabrar's planned NK onto someone else and keeps himself alive.


Chaos

Spoiler:
Yeah hes lucked out. Sabrar's nk hits mark as well as both are trying to kill boomfrog. For those following along here are the night redirects

Code: Select all

Target  Actual Target

Hueristically Alone - Moody7277

Sabrar - Moody7277

Moody7277 - Madge

Madge - Plytho

Plytho - Mpolo

Boomfrog - Mark_Canigla

Jimbobmacdoodle - Sabrar

Bessie - Sabrar

Somitomi - Jimbobmacdoodle

Mpolo - Plytho

Mark Canigla - Bessie

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:13 am UTC

Chaos

Spoiler:
Chuckling a lot about Sabrar's post above, everyone seems to be assuming this game is way less bastard than it is. That hidden 2 shot NK immunity is going to be really useful with the sheer amount of death flying around, I think that combined with the 1 shot lynch immunity actually gives him a half decent shot, especially if mpolo got lynched before him or something. Hmmm, would also be nice for Madge if mpolo died before her so a VT claim doesn't seem so suspicious, because then mpolo could back her up...

I wonder if Sabrar's going to draw a bunch of flak tomorrow when Mark shows up flipping scum.

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:19 am UTC

Chaos @wam:

Spoiler:
Does jimbob get to Double Doctor it up tonight? Is he able to self target? I think it's interesting that BoomFrog's redirect makes it significantly easier to doctor for one night, as you target the same person that scum is targeting anyway to get a successful block, and there's a chance two different targets will be redirected to the same person as well.

Also, what's plytho's role please?

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:57 am UTC

Chaos

Spoiler:
BF but no ping wrote:Hmm, moody might have been worried that town was a minority, that's why he was cautious. He is very paranoid. Slightly townie.

Mpolo is taking me and Sabrar too seriously, but is that scummy?

plytho got the joke and let it play out. Slightly townie

Somitomi assumes we are serious but it's confused. That seems right.

Vic should know this is townie play for me. I want to see if he loses focus on me on his own. If he stays fixated on my gambit then he is scum.

Sabrar got a little jumpy too early and backed out of the joke. That seems nervous and scummy.


Just noting that this gambit got a whole 2/6 alignments correct (3 if he's actually clearing mpolo based off it, but ambiguous), adding this to the evidence pile. Use other stuff to form reads and drive discussion, or you start thinking you've got some sick insight into the game when you've really been assigning alignments by coin flip! When the apparent gambit happened this game, I was just going "oh boy, not again" and wondering if:

A) I should just go with my natural response of finding them rather tiresome and get it over with as fast as possible by voting.
B) I should guess that after I replicated my NNY response in WoT3 that people might read my natural response as scummy, and then have to fake a different response as town so that I don't get misinterpreted.

The fact that a town player should have to even consider doing B) is completely ridiculous and probe to backfiring, so I just went with A). And lo and behold, I got scum read for it. Amazing :roll:

Seriously, apparently Sabrar and BoomFrog should just both flip their reads of me given how this and WoT3 went :P. And Sabrar doesn't think that it's possible for me and BoomFrog to both be town this game, which is even more amazing. Especially after he read BoomFrog as being my partner for sure D2 of WoT3.

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Sabrar » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:02 am UTC

Mafios wam
Spoiler:
48 hour nights are definitely too long for a game with (probably) mostly day-chat. Glad it gets reduced going forward.

Also hi Vicarin! Mad at me bro? :lol:

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:24 am UTC

Chaos

Spoiler:
Sabrar no ping wrote:Also hi Vicarin! Mad at me bro? :lol:


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Oh, Sabrar, you poor bastard. Going to have a hell of a time soon hopefully :twisted:

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Madge » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:11 am UTC

CHAOS

Spoiler:
CHAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby wam » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:53 am UTC

Chaos

Spoiler:
so someone is killing mpolo (well aiming at plytho)! Which is good as it brings his zombie like abilities out. However, jimbob is doctoring him (well plytho). Now I meant to make mpolo un protectabke but didnt put it in my notes. Given its a bastard game i think i will allow the kill through. Thoughts?
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:02 am UTC

Chaos @wam

Spoiler:
Eh, if you meant it to be that way but just forgot to jot it down I don't see the problem. Not really going to screw up the balance any more than it already is :P

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby wam » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:32 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:Chaos @wam

Spoiler:
Eh, if you meant it to be that way but just forgot to jot it down I don't see the problem. Not really going to screw up the balance any more than it already is :P


Chaos

Spoiler:
balance what balance! I did put the fact I didn't worry about balance in the OP!
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:36 pm UTC

Chaos
Spoiler:
When does mpolo get to return to the game?

[edit]Also, you got Mark's name wrong after he made a big deal about spelling it correctly in thread.

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby wam » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:44 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Chaos
Spoiler:
When does mpolo get to return to the game?

[edit]Also, you got Mark's name wrong after he made a big deal about spelling it correctly in thread.


Chaos

Spoiler:
N3. Its 1 game phase he misses. I.e if he was lynched Day 1 returns Day 2. etc. And Bollocks I checked it twice, have fixed it now. Sorry Mark for when you read spoilers.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Sabrar » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:20 pm UTC

wam chafia
Spoiler:
I was either blocked (likely) or BoomFrog was bulletproof. That's not good, especially with confirmed multiple kills out there. 5-2-2-2-1??? Or just 7-2-2-1 with no Mafia A to screw with us?
Very much don't like the no-flips. Oh well.

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby wam » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:29 pm UTC

Chaos

Spoiler:
so sabrar is right no mafia a just to mess with them. Current setup is 4-2-1-1-1 with mpolo to come back n3. Town is actually in a better place than I thought they would be due to boomfrogs chaos.

Edit:And for those wondering plytho only has two janitor one shots and used 1 for Vic. Mpolo lack of reveal is due to him coming back.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Sabrar » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:07 pm UTC

chaos wafia
Spoiler:
I also could have been redirected...
Which is bad because then someone will definitely suspect me
Oh well, let's see how things shake out
Wonder how Madge will act with no info. :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:33 pm UTC

Chaos

Spoiler:
Wait, we've got a town janitor? Whaaaaaa?

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:38 pm UTC

Chaos

Spoiler:
I think me making 50 million spoiler posts puts a damper of jimbob's theory of me coming back :P

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Madge » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:44 pm UTC

chaos

Spoiler:
my three cop targets all came non-town. i guess i'm insane?! or really, really lucky.

anyway, bessie, boomfrog/conman, and sabrar are all non-town, APPARENTLY
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby moody7277 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:59 pm UTC

Chaos

Spoiler:
Well, no joy on recruiting h_a. That closes down some ideas on how my cult is going to work. With two kills available and the lynch, a fully recruiting cult would seem to actually be balancable even in a game where balance is a secondary idea. Then again, if there were two kills N2, I would already be at parity by D3. Doesn't matter at this point, just have to muddle through and see if I get lucky next time.
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BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby ConMan » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:59 pm UTC

Chaos
Spoiler:
It was the best of roles, it was the worst of roles. This is going to take some time to process.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:08 pm UTC

Chaos
Spoiler:
I'm assuming ConMan knows that he used his power N1? Hopefully he knows enough to claim that right away.

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:06 am UTC

Chaos @BoomFrog

Spoiler:
Dang, that's a real bummer about the accidental spoiler, you did an amazing job messing up everyone N1 and I was hoping you'd be able to lead town with plytho to victory.

Ah well, what are your thoughts on the current situation?

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:11 am UTC

Chaos @wam

Spoiler:
Hmm, you said that mpolo was going to come back with more powers each time he died up to 5 (!!!), what were they going to be? Assuming people realise he's town and can't be culted (because unkillable cult would be reeaaaaaaaally dumb as opposed to just silly), he might actually be in the strongest position this game. Sabrar's looking pretty well off too (does him killing based off role claims use up his 3 kills?).

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Sabrar » Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:10 am UTC

chaotic wam
Spoiler:
Guessing jimbob is the resurrector, pretty bastard from wam to hide this role away for the first day/night cycle. Really hoping Busdriver theory is true otherwise someone out there has to explain why they redirected me specifically to Mark. Could have been heury? Playing with absent people is damn hard...

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:58 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:Chaos @BoomFrog after game/death:

Spoiler:
Unfortunately, that isn't the correct comparison. See, if I randomly select a pool of 2 people out of 8 town and 3 scum, you'll snag at least 1 scum member a bit over half the time (8/15ths, and bessie refused to calculate it...).


Spoiler:
I would like to know how you calculated 8/15ths. And can you break that up into 1 scum and 2 scum chances separately?

How sure are you that the math is right?
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Deva » Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:35 am UTC

Wam's Chaos Game
Spoiler:
Given two random players among three Scum and eight Town,

Odds of selecting two Town: 8/11 * 7/10 = 56/110. (~50.9%)
Odds of one Scum, one Town: 2 * (8/11 * 3/10) = 48/110. (~43.6%)
Odds of two Scum: 3/11 * 2/10 = 6/110. (~5.5%)

Alternatively:
Odds of two Town: choose(8, 2) / choose(11, 2)
Odds of one Scum, one Town: [(choose(8, 1) / choose(11, 1)) * choose(3, 1) / choose(10, 1)] + [(choose(3, 1) / choose(11, 1)) * (choose(8, 1) / choose(10, 1))]
Odds of two Scum: choose(3, 2) / choose(11, 2)

Equals the same either way.

Edit note: Assumes you not being among the eleven other players. Knows your alignment, after all.
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