Mafiascum Round 4.

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OverBored
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby OverBored » Mon Jul 07, 2008 10:04 am UTC

We need to be careful, we appear to be building up attacks against a lot of people simultaneously. This has its advantages and disadvantages.

Advantages:

Saves time later
Can be used for cross-referencing later on
Gains information from those that die tonight (or whenever)
One of our choices is likely to be mafia, and we exert some pressure on them.

Disadvantages:

We are putting a lot more info under scrutiny, that means tha mafia and other anti-town roles have extra info.
We lack focus and end up with a very broad set of attacks and less focussed analysis on people.
Mafia could manipulate us into voting for who they want rather than the actual people we need to get rid of.
Any pressure exerted is limited, by the fact that they know there are 6-7 other suspects, and they just need to play it cool.

All-in-all I just think we need to narrow the list of suspects down (at least after this guillotining) otherwise we could be creating problems for ourselves.
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby michaelandjimi » Mon Jul 07, 2008 10:08 am UTC

I agree.

The main ones appear to be:
Upsilon
nsmjohn
Mr Pete

Can anyone narrow down the list? Currently I'm not so sure about either of the first two, but then again, they are made by other people so I might have bias.
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby OverBored » Mon Jul 07, 2008 10:09 am UTC

I think we are fine if we have 4 or less people on the list, but the 5 or so lurkers, and then other suspicions going around was just too much.
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby MartinW » Mon Jul 07, 2008 10:17 am UTC

michaelandjimi wrote:I don't follow most of your reasoning there.

Why are PR&C and AKAnotu suspicious at all? I mean, maybe because of their lurking, but the same is true of the others.

Mr Pete I'm reasonably sure is, because of his voting pattern and supernatural prior knowledge of the alignments of the lurkers. Tanya hasn't exhibited really any suspiciousness, so that's a good reason to not be sure. I agree with you about Sarr, but I'm still not entirely sure there.

I don't follow your post about Upsilon though.

Sorry for being so stupid if it is blatantly obvious, and I'm sure you are sick of my questions by now.


Why PR&C are suspicious at all is slightly complicated. A few small things in each that could go both ways but look suspicious to me. Not very, just a small amount. Here are two primary ones.

AKAnotu:
Ok, I stayed up late last night and only now woke up
...reading the thread, and all the arguments, it seems that gojoe is probably mafia
Vote:gojoe

Note: I'm not bandwagoning or posting without reason here. It seems that everyone has already decided and we just need more people to get on/vote.

Seems like a late and unnecessary vote to me. It seems to me he's trying to overcompensate for not taking part in Gojoe's lynching.

And PR&C climbing on the Mega band wagon without any reason (He just posted a vote) is suspicious too.

These points could possibly go both ways but I think it makes them slightly suspicious.

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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby michaelandjimi » Mon Jul 07, 2008 10:29 am UTC

Yeah, I don't really buy that. They can be, as you said, looked at from either way.

AKAnotu probably just didn't want people to think he was a Mafia bandwagoner. PR&C might not have had time. I suggest we focus on the people who we have proper evidence for.

Care to vote for one of our main suspects, MartinW? We need to turn up the heat, and one vote each person doesn't really do that.
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby Mr Pete » Mon Jul 07, 2008 10:45 am UTC

michaelandjimi wrote:
Mr Pete wrote:nth-ing the notion that the cop stays under wraps (see this is why I don't post much Overboard, whenever I come up with an idea some other bugger has already posted it :roll: )

Right, the roles that are out there:

4 Mafia B
3 Mafia A
A cop
A doctor
Some Masons
Remainder are townies (not sure on the numbers due to the question of inactive people)
Because he seemed so sure that the inactive people were townies, and they were, aside from Rodan. So, basically, the same reason we lynched Gojoe, minus a little suspicious behaviour and plus lurking. Keep in mind he made this post both before Gojoe wanted to kill off the inactives and before it turned out that the lurkers were the townies (and Rodan). Furthermore, he did not vote for Megatriorchis.


Vote: Mr Pete.


:? I shall explain my reasoning then:
4 Mafia B (at this point none had been killed and we know the mafias start off with 4 people)
3 Mafia A (4-1=3)
A cop (in the game description)
A doctor (in the game description)
Some masons (unknown number, in the game description)
Remainder townies ( =the original number - (those killed + roles above))

The other numbers were definate (subject to altering due to inactives) the townies number was never sure, which is why I put the inactives there to my mind (otherwise there would have been no point looking at the numbers at all if they were all going to change).

And as for my lurkering, it has been my 18th birthday. Saturday was spent having fartoo much to drink (so no posting (thank the gods)), and Sunday was spent recovering. Days before = preperation.

I got some climbing rope for my birthday, a shame there are to be no more lynchings really.

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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby OverBored » Mon Jul 07, 2008 10:45 am UTC

I guess you're right, we do need to apply pressure. For me it is between PR&C and Pete. I'll go for Pete since I can always take it back later if needbe.

Vote Mrpete
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby OverBored » Mon Jul 07, 2008 10:46 am UTC

You had to go and ninja me!...
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby MartinW » Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:01 am UTC

michaelandjimi wrote:Care to vote for one of our main suspects, MartinW? We need to turn up the heat, and one vote each person doesn't really do that.


Here's my vote, to turn up the heat as you said. But I'm still looking for the SK and if I can find him lynching him would be more productive.

Vote: Mr Pete

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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby Tanya » Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:13 am UTC

Question: Does the mason leader being dead means there is a new one?

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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby Mr Pete » Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:29 am UTC

michaelandjimi wrote:Mr Pete I'm reasonably sure is, because of his voting pattern and supernatural prior knowledge of the alignments of the lurkers. Tanya hasn't exhibited really any suspiciousness, so that's a good reason to not be sure. I agree with you about Sarr, but I'm still not entirely sure there.


Voting pattern? I haven't voted yet due to keeping unreasonable hours to most of you (across the 'pond') so I have been soundly asleep while noise for voting happens.

Supernatural prior knowledge? Most of the people are townies, some people are going to be removed, most of those removed are townies. How could he have known that? burn the witch.

Since being viewed as suspiscious by some, M&J has become much more vocal, and as a result suspicion of him has dropped as he waves around his FoS.

The most suspicious people by popular concensus so far are Nsmjohn, PR&C and me ( :roll: ).
PR&C has contributed very little (bar voting) although his other post was disagreeing with the cop revealing himself (+townie points).

Vote: Nsmjohn

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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby DragonRidr » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:43 pm UTC

I need to do some more reading of the thread before I feel confident in attacking or defending anyone. (That may happen this evening.)

Let me urge you, with regards to the Mr Pete thing, to apply a reasonable amount of pressure to get more information, rather than creating a speedlynch. On Day 1, Mega said something suspicious, so we applied pressure and asked more questions. When his answers came up as crap, we lynched him and nailed our first scum. On Day 2, I felt like the votes for Gojoe piled on before we could get that sort of information to confirm our suspicions. Not that we shouldn't have been suspicious of him, but an extra 12 hours before the actual lynch could have given us time to squeeze convicting evidence out of him or his former posts. (In fact, I was going to come home after my family's 4th of July celebrations and mention how the top of page 4 was a critical piece of evidence, but he was already dead.)

I'm not as of yet buying the argument that Mr Pete indicated he knew the lurkers were townies by saying the townies were of indeterminate number. Given that Mr Pete was indeed part of one scum group, he couldn't have told the difference between a lurker being a townie and a lurker being in the other scum group any more than we could.

Not that some good questions haven't been raised today - just don't get too hasty!
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby Blast » Mon Jul 07, 2008 4:04 pm UTC

Let me see if I got this straight:

Mr Pete - suspicious because he assumed the inactives were mafia and didn't vote for Mega. Since Mega was mafia A and the only non-townie inactive was Mafia B, this makes him look like Mafia A.

NSMJohn - made a list of people who were suspicious on day one, and made a joke about lynching people without a cop hat if we couldn't decide on who to lynch.

PR&C - lurker, posts to vote without contributing. Not much to go on, I just wanted to apply some pressure.

Upsilon - Said he thought Mega sounded like the cop, possibly as a means to defend her. Said this when Mega had 10 votes so if he was trying to save her he could have been desperate enough to use such a poor argument. This idea also directly contradicted the explanations Mega has already posted.
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby Sarr » Mon Jul 07, 2008 4:19 pm UTC

I'd just like to say that I've been lurking because nobody really sets off alarm bells, so I'm just watching. That, and I've learned my lesson about premature accusations.
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby nsmjohn » Mon Jul 07, 2008 4:21 pm UTC

Blast wrote:Let me see if I got this straight:

Mr Pete - suspicious because he assumed the inactives were mafia and didn't vote for Mega. Since Mega was mafia A and the only non-townie inactive was Mafia B, this makes him look like Mafia A.

NSMJohn - made a list of people who were suspicious on day one, and made a joke about lynching people without a cop hat if we couldn't decide on who to lynch.

PR&C - lurker, posts to vote without contributing. Not much to go on, I just wanted to apply some pressure.

Upsilon - Said he thought Mega sounded like the cop, possibly as a means to defend her. Said this when Mega had 10 votes so if he was trying to save her he could have been desperate enough to use such a poor argument. This idea also directly contradicted the explanations Mega has already posted.

Sounds about right, don't forget that I voted for Mega too early... because you know voting for someone suspicious when you know you're going to be at the doctors for a while (check my post) and not wanting to miss the chance to make your opinion known is a bad idea.
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby AKAnotu » Mon Jul 07, 2008 5:02 pm UTC

I know I've been lurking and I apologize. I sorta lost interest and have been too lazy to look through the posts and help argue.
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby Upsilon » Mon Jul 07, 2008 6:51 pm UTC

I've been really busy lately and haven't had much time to post. I apologize.
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby Tigerlion » Mon Jul 07, 2008 10:15 pm UTC

Okay, lets say that the lurkers are inactive. Hypothetically.
I don't think that if inactive lurkers were mafia, they wouldn't be inactive.

Which I'm pretty sure is not your point. You guys are saying that the lurkers are just afraid that they might say something incriminating, so they don't say anything at all, correct?

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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby Blast » Mon Jul 07, 2008 10:39 pm UTC

Tigion wrote:Okay, lets say that the lurkers are inactive. Hypothetically.


I was using inactive to refer to those people that were not playing at all, namely SPSnow and Nebuduck (and then Rodan when he quit). As opposed to lurkers like PR&C, Tanya, and Upsilon, who are playing but not posting much. I don't think anyone else is inactive according to that definition.

Tigion wrote:I don't think that if inactive lurkers were mafia, they wouldn't be inactive.


I couldn't quite parse this sentence.

Tigion wrote:Which I'm pretty sure is not your point. You guys are saying that the lurkers are just afraid that they might say something incriminating, so they don't say anything at all, correct?


Probably a mix of:
Disinterested or unsure how to contribute.
Townies afraid of being killed if they're too vocal.
Mafia trying to lay low.
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby Tigerlion » Mon Jul 07, 2008 10:45 pm UTC

I wrote:I don't think that if inactive lurkers were mafia, they wouldn't be inactive.


I meaning that if the lurkers found out they were mafia, they'd be like, "Oh! Awesome! I'm mafia! I wanna go kill people!"

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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby Tigerlion » Mon Jul 07, 2008 10:46 pm UTC

Something along the lines of that.

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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby michaelandjimi » Tue Jul 08, 2008 12:42 am UTC

15 people, 8 Votes to lynch.

2 votes for NSMjohn
1 vote for PR&C
3 votes for Mr Pete

Mr Pete wrote:Supernatural prior knowledge? Most of the people are townies, some people are going to be removed, most of those removed are townies. How could he have known that? burn the witch.
So you are saying you were just [un]lucky?

I'm actually going to change my vote. I have noticed something else that seems a little odd about nsmjohn:

nsmjohn wrote:All of the suspicion of Gojoe seems well placed to me. Tomorrow I would like to keep the heat turned up on MAJ though.

Vote: Gojoe

I am pretty sure this seals Gojoe's fate.
In which he provides the last vote of a speedlynch for Gojoe. I believe a townie would want a little more discussion. Looks to me like either he is from the opposing Mafia and is speedlynching or he is from the same Mafia and is trying to cover his tracks.

Then, in his next post:
nsmjohn wrote:Think about it, everyone has been complaining about the game's pace and once someone has a vote or two against them you don't feel quite as guilty about placing another vote for them. Please ponder what I have said while you sleep.
In which he admits that speedlynching is very likely to occur in this game because it is so slow. And he also says that he knows about the psychology that makes you vote for someone who already has a bunch of votes on them. So clearly, some thought has gone into his lynch vote, but we see little evidence of this.

Also, a small piece of evidence that may prove useful - He tried to get us to vote for Sarr early on, and now Sarr is basically a confirmed innocent.
nsmjohn wrote:WWS's suspicion of sarr sounds legit, but then again I haven't reread the posts. I am interested to hear what Martin has to say.


It could be innocent, but it is just something to think about.

So, yeah:

Unvote: Mr Pete
Vote: nsmjohn


Which now makes it:
3 votes for NSMjohn
1 vote for PR&C
2 votes for Mr Pete

I'm still FoSing you, Mr Pete, but you get a day's reprieve.
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby une see » Tue Jul 08, 2008 1:54 am UTC

I'm just posting to check in since I could not access a computer all day. Um...nothing much has happened since the last time I checked this thread. I still am unable to choose between the people who have been suspicious to me so far and vote for one of them. About the lurker/inactive thing: lurking means you have been present in the game but have not been posting (usually for fear of saying something wrong or disinterest), and being inactive means you just aren't playing at all/not online. That's the difference.
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby michaelandjimi » Tue Jul 08, 2008 4:18 am UTC

This is taking a shocking amount of time. Where is everyone?
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby Upsilon » Tue Jul 08, 2008 4:18 am UTC

I agree with MaJ.

Vote: nsmjohn
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby Blast » Tue Jul 08, 2008 4:47 am UTC

Well, I'm not entirely convinced but we have to do something.

MAJ wanted to lynch Mr Pete and Martin and Overbored follow him. Bulvox voted to lynch nsmjohn, Mr Pete voted for nsmjohn (possibly to deflect attention MAJ was raising), then MAJ switched from Mr Pete to nsmjohn and Upsilon followed right after.

If nsmjohn is a townie, then Bulvox, MAJ, and Upsilon are very suspicious.

nsmjohn wrote:WWS's suspicion of sarr sounds legit, but then again I haven't reread the posts. I am interested to hear what Martin has to say.

If nsmjohn turns out to be mafia, this could link him to Martin.

Either way it should give us some information and we really need information.

Also:
nsmjohn wrote:don't forget that I voted for Mega too early... because you know voting for someone suspicious when you know you're going to be at the doctors for a while (check my post) and not wanting to miss the chance to make your opinion known is a bad idea.

Answering suspicions with sarcastic half-jokes makes him seem like he's trying to deflect suspicions without appearing to try too hard.

Unvote: Poprocks and coke
Vote: nsmjohn
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby michaelandjimi » Tue Jul 08, 2008 5:17 am UTC

I changed because I discovered the new stuff about nsmjohn.
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby Blast » Tue Jul 08, 2008 5:44 am UTC

michaelandjimi wrote:I changed because I discovered the new stuff about nsmjohn.


I understood your reasons for switching. I tried to summarize how the voting and FoS'ing has developed today and what it would mean once we find out nsmjohn's role.
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby MartinW » Tue Jul 08, 2008 8:19 am UTC

I agree with MAJ. Mr Pete is suspicious but NsmJohn is a lot more suspicious.

Unvote: Mr Pete
Vote: nsmjohn

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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby michaelandjimi » Tue Jul 08, 2008 8:31 am UTC

2 to lynch. I desperately hope nsmjohn is Mafia, because all of these people agreeing with me without so much as a reason are going to make me look suspicious if he isn't.
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby une see » Tue Jul 08, 2008 11:10 am UTC

What unfreakingodly hours this Buddhist camp keeps! But anyways, I'm awake (ugh) now. What I'm getting suspicious about are the people bandwagoning so quickly to nsmjohn. Um...I'm not going to vote because nothing has changed since I last checked the thread, and I'm still not that sure that he has been suspicious enough to lynch. Weren't we not going to speedlynch people?
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby Tanya » Tue Jul 08, 2008 12:11 pm UTC

I'm not 100% sure nsmjohn is mafia, but he is the most suspicious and we have to do something.
Vote nsmjohn

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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby OverBored » Tue Jul 08, 2008 12:38 pm UTC

I would like to see the pressure released a little and have nsm answer for himself a bit more, with one to go I am worried he will lynch before we get info. This is why I won't vote, and intend to avoid a speed lynch.
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby OverBored » Tue Jul 08, 2008 12:42 pm UTC

EBWOP. we will lynch, not he.
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby nsmjohn » Tue Jul 08, 2008 3:59 pm UTC

michaelandjimi wrote:
nsmjohn wrote:Think about it, everyone has been complaining about the game's pace and once someone has a vote or two against them you don't feel quite as guilty about placing another vote for them. Please ponder what I have said while you sleep.
In which he admits that speedlynching is very likely to occur in this game because it is so slow. And he also says that he knows about the psychology that makes you vote for someone who already has a bunch of votes on them. So clearly, some thought has gone into his lynch vote, but we see little evidence of this.

Also, a small piece of evidence that may prove useful - He tried to get us to vote for Sarr early on, and now Sarr is basically a confirmed innocent.
nsmjohn wrote:WWS's suspicion of sarr sounds legit, but then again I haven't reread the posts. I am interested to hear what Martin has to say.


It could be innocent, but it is just something to think about.

So, yeah:

Unvote: Mr Pete
Vote: nsmjohn


Which now makes it:
3 votes for NSMjohn
1 vote for PR&C
2 votes for Mr Pete

I'm still FoSing you, Mr Pete, but you get a day's reprieve.


MAJ, try quoting my WHOLE post next time, it shows motive a little better.

nsmjohn wrote:Ok, Gojoe is lynched.

Before nightfall I would like to say one thing about MAJ. At the time he switched his vote from Mr. Pete to Gojoe (to become the first vote against Gojoe) there was a lot of suspicion being waved at him. With the current pace of the game I think he derailed his own lynching by voting for the next closest suspect. Think about it, everyone has been complaining about the game's pace and once someone has a vote or two against them you don't feel quite as guilty about placing another vote for them. Please ponder what I have said while you sleep.


See, I was pointing at you in the post you so craftily picked your excerpt from.

Blast wrote:
nsmjohn wrote:don't forget that I voted for Mega too early... because you know voting for someone suspicious when you know you're going to be at the doctors for a while (check my post) and not wanting to miss the chance to make your opinion known is a bad idea.

Answering suspicions with sarcastic half-jokes makes him seem like he's trying to deflect suspicions without appearing to try too hard.

Unvote: Poprocks and coke
Vote: nsmjohn

It is how I respond to everything, I have what you would call a deflective personality.
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby nsmjohn » Tue Jul 08, 2008 4:33 pm UTC

To say something about psychology which MAJ said I seemed to claim I know. I plan on being a psych major, looking for patterns in behavior is what I like to do, so sue me. From what I have seen there are two type of votes in this game, the type in which it appears there are two or more powers struggling to get someone lynched and the one where everyone seems certain that there is a guilty party which more or less is a speed lynch.

The vote for for Gojoe went quick because there wasn't much doubt that he was scum, he did some very scummy things. Also, why blame the one who put the last nail in the coffin? If I recall correctly the above quoted post from me shows that MAJ started the lynch train on Gojoe, to save his own ass nonetheless.

As an example of a struggling vote lets use this one. This day has been lingering, why? Because there is not a lot of concrete evidence; after Gojoe everybody started scratching their heads because they didn't know who was next. Why am I being lynched? Because I have a sarcastic sense of humor which inclines me to be truthful to the point of absurdity (I said I was suspicious for making that list, apparently I was right). I'm not the only one who has done it this round, but that is of no matter those other people have friends. Also, it appears people are diverting suspicion quite well. Lets not forget that MAJ was a suspect before we lynched Gojoe. Another thing to note while Mr. Pete hasn't really done much to defend himself he has had a helping hand in derailing is own lynching today.

Keep in mind TMP won the last round by playing like a pro-town role during the day. I am pretty sure some people may have taken his cue and started blaming their own mafia when they do something worthy of blame. What needs to be looked for is subtle derailings of lynchings (like putting off the lynching of one person today for me).
michaelandjimi wrote:I'm still FoSing you, Mr Pete, but you get a day's reprieve.

If I die today watch out for what happens to Pete tomorrow. Lets not forget that MAJ while not starting the train on me, definitely gave it momentum which derails Pete's train.
Gojoe wrote:Well, I would say something here, but it would only make it worse.


nsmjohn
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby nsmjohn » Tue Jul 08, 2008 4:42 pm UTC

Hmm... after some reading I would like to retract something. MAJ is not working my lynch to save Pete, he started the day by trying to lynch him. Which normally doesn't say much, but MAJ was the one putting forth all of the evidence, so it is unlikely they are working together in any capacity but still possible.
Gojoe wrote:Well, I would say something here, but it would only make it worse.


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OverBored
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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby OverBored » Tue Jul 08, 2008 5:23 pm UTC

The towns mind seems set, and I guess whilst the evidence doesn't seem 100% to me, it never will for anyone, thats why mafia's a good game. And so since we need to move on, and NSM does seem to have made himself a target (although he has been assisted fairly well by MAJ), I shall complete the lynch, with

Vote: NSMJohn
G4!!

Grob FTW,

Hello. Smithers. You're. Quite good. At. Turning. Me. On.

Tigerlion
The Communist formerly known as Tigion
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Location: Cleveland.

Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby Tigerlion » Tue Jul 08, 2008 5:27 pm UTC

I think that's it. NSMjohn is lynched. I think.

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Re: Mafiascum Round 4.

Postby OverBored » Tue Jul 08, 2008 5:30 pm UTC

Well, I did say, and to be honest I'm only posting now cos of impatience.
G4!!

Grob FTW,

Hello. Smithers. You're. Quite good. At. Turning. Me. On.


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