xkcd

by **InstinctSage** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 4:47 am UTC

I'm happy with requiring everyone to at least chime in.

31.25% chance of lynching a raptor through random lynching
18.75% chance of lynching a tribesman through random lynching
50% chance of lynching a townie through random lynching.
31.25% chance of lynching a pro-town power role through random lynching.

Why don't we discuss the possible consequences of night actions assuming no lynch?
I say assuming no lynch only because it eliminates the possibility of lynching someone who could perform night actions. I'd agree that voting no lynch would be a bad idea in practice.

by **Gojoe** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 5:01 am UTC

That was a slip up lets get him!

Oh and I am awake now!

by **Silknor** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 5:03 am UTC

I like the jumping off point into the round of discussing what we think about the roles, so here goes:

Recruiter/Tribesman: Very typical Recruiting Masons setup, at least if the Recruiter dies there will be another.

Witch Doctor: Potential very powerful, but likely to be very weak early. Why? Because there's only really one role alteration truly worth making, making the raptors kill another raptor. It seems like you'd have to have the targeter and the target both raptors, which requires guessing not one but two raptors. The Witch Doctor may be better off roleblocking early, that only requires getting one guess right instead of two.

Hatmaker: Unless I've missed something this is just a plain sane cop. Without roleclaiming no 001 gambit though.

Doctor: Also seems like a vanilla doctor, I haven't seen anything mentioned about the doctor dying if he protects raptors (aka Weak Doctor)

Paleontologist: Just the Discerning Gun Owner from Crazy 2, a free raptor kill if we don't lynch them. If they trick the raptors into thinking they are a cop or doc early we get a nice lead.

In response to InstinctSage, the most probable outcome is to take the plurality probability for each night action. Raptors kill a Survivor or basic Tribesman, Cop finds an innocent, Doc does nothing, Witch Doctor does nothing, Recruiter probably gets a townie, and more likely than not a Survivor. I'm not sure if this really told us anything.

Also I do support the idea that everyone should contribute. Raptors that don't contribute can't say something that sounds suspicious. Townies that don't contribute look like lurking Raptors.

Raptors: Other then 80 MPH running speeds, 12 inch fangs, and sharp claws, not different from normal Italians.

by **InstinctSage** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 5:12 am UTC

Raptors would have a much better chance at hitting a survivor at 45.45%, if you include basic tribesman in that then there's a 45.45% chance they hit a power role from either masons or survivors.

One thing Raptors have in common with Italians: They talk with their hands.

by **michaelandjimi** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 5:12 am UTC

Well, if noone dies, including possible targets of powers:

27.27% chance the Raptors hit a Tribesman
45.45% chance the Raptors hit an ordinary Survivor
27.27% chance the Raptors hit a Pro-Town, Non-Tribesman power role.

One of those Pro-Town, Non-Tribesman power roles is the Paleontologist, resulting in the death of a Raptor. That's a 9.09% chance.

This is assuming the Witch Doctor doesn't roleblock. He has a 46% Chance of hitting a Raptor, but the odds that it is the Raptor performing the kill that night are 7%.

Doctor has a 6.67% chance of protecting a person.

Hatmaker has 33.33% chance of finding a Raptor.

38% that the Masons recruit a Raptor, 62% that there is a new Mason.

by **InstinctSage** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 5:13 am UTC

Nanja'd by MAJ's excellent statistic roundup. Thanks.

by **jayhsu** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 5:15 am UTC

Also, fangs.

by **Gojoe** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 5:41 am UTC

That was great maj

by **oneofthedragon** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 5:49 am UTC

Alright then, Hi everybody, I'll try to post more this game so I'm not lynched for it... wasn't too fun last time... Anyway, nice stats maj...

by **michaelandjimi** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 6:00 am UTC

InstinctSage wrote:Ninja'd by MAJ's excellent statistic roundup. Thanks.

Gojoe wrote:That was great maj

oneofthedragon wrote:Anyway, nice stats maj...

Hey guys, it was just maths. It's not that impressive.

Um, something that might mess up my stats though. A couple of games ago there were Masons, and they recruited the Godfather of the Mafia.
In this game, does the Mason Leader die if he tries to recruit the Raptor Leader, or is the Raptor Leader 'clever' enough to join?

by **kellsbells** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:15 am UTC

My god everyone, I leave to watch Ghostbusters with my friend before she leaves for college, and you make the thread go asplode. So many questions. I'll try to answer what I can, but I need to reread the thread more first. I'll get this one though.

michaelandjimi wrote:In this game, does the Mason Leader die if he tries to recruit the Raptor Leader, or is the Raptor Leader 'clever' enough to join?

Yes. The raptors are raptors, and they will kill any Tribe members trying to recruit them.

by **michaelandjimi** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:17 am UTC

Okay. You can calm down, my numbers are okay.

by **Nebuduck** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 8:09 am UTC

Howdy folks, just chiming in. I will try to make a couple of posts today, but it'll be a pretty hectic day.

For those of you who may be wondering: Cambridge.

by **oneofthedragon** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 8:11 am UTC

Alright everyone... going to bed... see you all tommorow...

by **kellsbells** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 8:12 am UTC

Nebuduck wrote:Howdy folks, just chiming in. I will try to make a couple of posts today, but it'll be a pretty hectic day.

For those of you who may be wondering: Cambridge.

Hurray!

by **InstinctSage** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 8:32 am UTC

Well, I'm off for the night. But I suppose it's not really night until someone's lynched, so lets say I'm having an extended afternoon nap.

by **michaelandjimi** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 8:48 am UTC

I just noticed something.

InstinctSage has no hat! Therefore he must be a raptor!

by **Gojoe** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 8:57 am UTC

(dont tell anyone, but im not wearing a hat either...)

by **cycoden** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 8:59 am UTC

Re: the hatmaker, can it be assumed that the he/she is not going to be affected by mercury poisoning?

Hatmakers aren't exactly renowned for their sanity...

by **OverBored** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:38 am UTC

I'm awake but wont have a lot of acces for a while.

Question: If power role is recruited, can he roleclaim within the tribe?

re we playing by standard need a mjority to lynch with no time limits?

by **jayhsu** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:28 pm UTC

InstinctSage wrote:I'm happy with requiring everyone to at least chime in.

31.25% chance of lynching a raptor through random lynching
18.75% chance of lynching a tribesman through random lynching
50% chance of lynching a townie through random lynching.
31.25% chance of lynching a pro-town power role through random lynching.

Why don't we discuss the possible consequences of night actions assuming no lynch?
I say assuming no lynch only because it eliminates the possibility of lynching someone who could perform night actions. I'd agree that voting no lynch would be a bad idea in practice.

So 68.75% chance of lynching pro-town? 2/3 basically.

Still, no-lynch is a terrible idea. You start off the next day with pretty much the same information, but also one more person dead.

Then again, lynching is not entirely random. This might affect the percentages a bit, but probably not significantly.

by **Tigerlion** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:50 pm UTC

OverBored wrote:I'm awake but wont have a lot of acces for a while.

Question: If power role is recruited, can he roleclaim within the tribe?

re we playing by standard need a majority to lynch with no time limits?

Gonna say yes to both.

by **kellsbells** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 6:32 pm UTC

Tigion wrote:
OverBored wrote:I'm awake but wont have a lot of acces for a while.

Question: If power role is recruited, can he roleclaim within the tribe?

re we playing by standard need a majority to lynch with no time limits?

Gonna say yes to both.

Yup, confirmed. Yes and yes.

by **kellsbells** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:19 pm UTC

If you guys don't stir up this game a bit, I may get a bit angry. And you won't like the mod when she's angry.

(Actually, I might just install day and night time limits)

by **Tigerlion** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:21 pm UTC

I wont set any time limits, I'll just set some rappin' raptors on you guys.

by **Bulvox** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:22 pm UTC

nothing to say other than saying that MAJ is the obvious raptor/raptor enthusiast.

by **Megatriorchis** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:22 pm UTC

I expect many Jurassic Park 3 jokes from this thread.

I also expect that there's no activity here because it's the first day and there's really not much to say.

by **Bulvox** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:24 pm UTC

get in the car!

by **jayhsu** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:37 pm UTC

Maybe you shouldn't implement day/night time limits for the first few game-days, as we are still blindly mucking about.

by **Tigerlion** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:38 pm UTC

Actually, I was thinking quite the contrary. Just put a time limit on day one, so you guys will get yerselves together.

by **Silknor** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:41 pm UTC

Current Post Counts. Highlighting those who have contributed none-very little. Lurkers hurt the town. Raptors who lurk can't say anything suspicious, while townies that lurk look like lurking raptors. I think if after a while some of the people on this list don't post anything or post nothing but spam, we should consider lynching them.

In the mean time, I think people should keep discussing the roles.

1. Jayhsu VI
2. Nebuduck I
3. willwithskills
4. Wombat I
5. Bulvox VI
6. Megatriorchis IV
7. Azrael001 III
8. OneOfTheDragon II
9. InstinctSage VI
10. Overbored XVII
11. une see I
12. The Moo Prophet I
13. cycoden II
14. Gojoe III
15. Silknor XII
16. michaelandjimi XXII

by **une see** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:42 pm UTC

Er...I got nothing. Everyone just spammed the first few pages, and I didn't bother to read through it all.

by **Azrael001** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:43 pm UTC

Spam.

by **Bulvox** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:44 pm UTC

by **une see** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:44 pm UTC

Also, I think wws probably needs to be replaced. He disappeared during Crazy Round 2, and I don't think he's back yet.

by **Tigerlion** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:46 pm UTC

Yeah, he hasn't read his PM yet.

by **Tigerlion** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:46 pm UTC

Bulvox wrote:

KIIIIIIIILLLLLLL ARGHARGHARGHARGH.

by **Silknor** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:47 pm UTC

Minor FoS: Une See

After being called out for not contributing, she immediately makes 2 posts without any content. I even asked for an opinion on the roles and she doesn't give anything. Now that I'm calling her out specifically I'm sure she'll answer with something, but we should keep an eye on her.

by **Bulvox** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:51 pm UTC

btw, i'm enjoying just messing around with Tigions head by posting that picture to much not to do it again. so for your viewing pleasure, my new avatar.

someone find a way to edit a hat in there.

by **une see** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:55 pm UTC

Well, I actually didn't see your post when I made mine...And my post perfectly explains why I didn't post anything with content: because I have nothing to contribute at the moment. The roles are um...pretty much the same as roles from previous mafia games, and the first few pages have been filled up with spam which I didn't bother to read through thoroughly. Why should I make meaningless posts just to up my post count in this thread when I have nothing to say? The better question is, why are you so accusation-happy, Silknor?

Who is online