Large and in Charge: Mafia Round 7: MAFIA WIN!

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Rakysh
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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby Rakysh » Tue Jun 30, 2009 5:40 pm UTC

Exactly. Where I scum (I hate playing this game) I wouldn't have shopped my scum-mate so quickly, and I wouldn't have on/offed so much.

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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby une see » Tue Jun 30, 2009 5:41 pm UTC

korora wrote:I'll admit that I'm finding it very difficult to analyze dedalus, mostly because he's agreed with what I've said so frequently... it's sort of like a reverse-OMGUS. I'd like to see an analysis of him from someone I trust. At this point it looks like the only reason to vote him is that Martin said he was town, which is pretty WIFOM.

Now that's just lazy. That's exactly what dedalus did D3; he said the only reason to vote for Martin was meta-related, when that wasn't true at all. If you look back at the D3 posts about dedalus, or even just at dedalus' D3 posts, you should see all the other reasons that he was suspicious yesterday...Although, again, I'm conflicted on dedalus, seeing as how he was so pro-town D1.
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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby dedalus » Tue Jun 30, 2009 11:30 pm UTC

IRG to me, if someone wants to post a detailed analysis of myself from D3 I'll try to respond as much as I can. For most of the day I had gone around with theories coming out the top of my head, and I was massively convinced Kipper was scum. Right now I don't have THAT much time for anything unfortunately, but I'll say two things;

a. Seeing as from memory a lot of Amy's accusations of Rakysh were based on the idea that Martin was scum, and combined with his jumpiness late yesterday, I'm definitely prepared to look into his case a lot further.

b. I'd really like to see a bit more analysis and the etc from Az. I know, it's Az, he's always like this, but his votes have come without much reasoning if any, and I think he's getting away with a lot because people are metagaming. It's not an OMGUS or anything, just would like to see some reasoning behind his vote.
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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby Azrael001 » Wed Jul 01, 2009 12:41 am UTC

Well too bad.
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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby Sungura » Wed Jul 01, 2009 1:00 am UTC

Az, I like the new avatar.

Right now Rakysh would have to be more on the top of my list of suspects but a re-looksie is in order.
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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby Azrael001 » Wed Jul 01, 2009 2:10 am UTC

Why thank you. I'll probably end up voting Rak as well, but only because I don't think that very many people will follow me down my baseless path of accusation.
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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby Sungura » Wed Jul 01, 2009 2:44 am UTC

You accuse Dedalus, I presume, as that was your vote? There are reasons to vote him. I will look at him again as I go back through things. It can't hurt to take another looksie. I've been biased so far as reading his posts as townie, and I often miss things when I strictly label folks so much without much backing.
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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby Azrael001 » Wed Jul 01, 2009 3:36 am UTC

I always forget his day one townyness. I still think he's scum though.
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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby Entropy » Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:44 am UTC

It generally strikes me that flying under the radar is the biggest scumtell, so I looked back over the last few days and saw that Silknor matches this pattern well.

He only had one post on Day 3, the main point of which was "Martin is obviously scum aligned, but he is too good a player to make a panicked/ballsy cop claim, so he must be trying to get lynched. Lets not vote him." Seeing as accusing him of being a jester was off the table, he worked to come up with a different role that could justify not lynching Martin for being scummy: "He must be a supporter who is trying to run interference".

Making this claim strikes me as an attempt to protect Martin without sticking his neck out to deny Martin's scummy behavior. Scum supporters are not jesters, and painting them as such strikes me as very off.

Day 2, he also kept his head down. Though he had more posts, all he really said was "I'm on board for a Brook lynch today" and "more discussion is good", neither of which are real contributions.

Since his only real contribution in the last two days seems off to me, and since I don't believe a FoS has any weight, I'm going to:

Vote: Silknor

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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby existential_elevator » Wed Jul 01, 2009 9:03 am UTC

I'm very slowly going over day 3, and posting some thoughts here. Apologies if they are half finished. Hopefully it will fuel some good analysis.

On dedalus:
Spoiler:
There is a brief exchange here between dedalus and cycoden which I think could be very telling. For those of you not clicking back, it's a little exchange about how/whether Mafia knows eachother's roles.
Azreal picks that up as a slip and uses it as a reason to vote.
Azrael001 wrote:
dedalus wrote:I would've thought that everyone was given the list of who is godfather etc... but yeah I could be wrong. Honestly though, if I was godfather right now I'd be massively pissed that Martin even associated me with him more then anything.
This has made me about 90% sure that dedalus is scum, if not the Godfather. See the Nebuduck game for an exact parallel.

Vote: Dedalus

Being fair, the nature of the exchange could have implicated either dedalus or cycoden. Of course, it could equally be completely innocent, but it hasn't been that kind of game, now, has it? I would advise that people look closely at this and form their own opinion.

I noted here my own reasons for voting dedalus, in part, and brought out these particular quotes:
dedalus wrote:Personally, overdefending is not a scumtell to me. I'll do it myself more when I'm town then scum, in part this is because defending too much draws attention. I would say that the desperation is a bit scummy, seeing as MoA was more annoyed when he had to defend in length last time I saw it. But either way, I'll keep my vote on Brook, if anything for pressures sake.


dedalus wrote:I wouldn't go saying that 'because I argued against lynching town and voted scum, I'm town'. It makes a lot of sense for scum to seem to be making the right decisions (and it certainly is easier for them to pick scum and town), because trust gives them more sway over the general consensus.

If people take away anything from this, then really, they should be looking at day 1 as a smokescreen. People who were seen to make the right choices on day one were not necessarily townies. Of course, Mafia would have had a chance to confer on night one, and perhaps would have agreed to cut their loses and lynch a mafia-mate, to make them all look more innocent. It's all about team-play, and we should not expect the Mafia to be anything less than ruthless.

I think this is a pretty important dedalus post, too. Particularly the opening:
For the past few days I've been fairly convinced of an Amy/E_E/Une See/Kipper/Nikc scum team (if you don't believe me read my last spoiler in the discussion thread, just putting this here so people don't jump on me for inventing stuff). As such I've been kind of taking the view that aforementioned people aren't doing any good work for the town etc etc, but upon a good reread of the last day I'm fairly convinced that a lot of what was being said about Martin was good banter and tbh, suspicions about me are fairly justified. In saying that, I'll point out the following:
Now, I think most of us are willing to say that one of Amy/Une See is town. We know kipper is town. I know I am town. And we know that Nikc has barely done anything noteworthy. So, this is a pretty fail scum alignment, and all it serves to do is try and cast doubt on people who are town. Now, I think that Martin, Korora and Dedalus might have been trying to push a lynch of Nikc as a possible second lynch of a scum-mate that would iron-clad them in their towniness. Martin definitely would have needed to do something special to save himself had we not lynched him. I really think that. As for not doing good work for town, I think myself, Amy and Une have been pushing the most analysis, aside from cycoden
As for this:
Currently Az is looking fairly suss to me, because of the amount of flip-flopping and lack of content that he's been doing. I get the feeling that he's taking a lot of liberty with the 'oh don't worry, it's just Az, he does that', and surely by day 3 he could pick a player and stick to them for a bit longer. He seems to be quite content to bandwagon mostly anyone.

It seems mostly a lie. Az had voted for dedalus, and quite on his own. Which, you know, isn't bandwagoning. If anyone is guilty of vote-hopping like mad, we know it's Rayksh. He's really trying for the subtle OMGUS swaying of opinion, but boy do I see through that. With laser beams.

Here is his damning of Kipper


I'm running out of time now so I'm going to have to keep this short. Sorry. When I get back later I'll do some more. But.

cycoden
Spoiler:
I've had a look over his analyses the last day, and to be honest, he rings town to me. He does not seem to doggedly attack anyone in particular and will call out whoever he thinks needs calling out. If he has any allegiances, well, I can't tell them, and perhaps you'd need to go further back to see if there are any.

Here is one analysis.
Here is his post on Martin.
Here is an earlier analysis.

They are both very even-handed, and I think his thoughts on Martin were some of the most cogent we had all day.


As for other things, here is my brief go-over of MR22. The main complaint I had was that he seemed very reluctant to vote Brook.
And here is my summary. This link mainly for my own use later, but if other people find it helpful, that's good :P

It also struck me that Vieto made a few slips yesterday. And Silknor does look suspect. I'll have a better look later, and hopefully drag up more on cycoden, though I'm pretty convinced he's town.

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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby dedalus » Wed Jul 01, 2009 9:28 am UTC

Ok, time for a defence... I'll keep the quoting short, if people want to see what the question was, go back to e_e's post
existential_elevator wrote:Being fair, the nature of the exchange could have implicated either dedalus or cycoden. Of course, it could equally be completely innocent, but it hasn't been that kind of game, now, has it? I would advise that people look closely at this and form their own opinion.

Ok, I think that Az was more suspicious of the second part of that sentence. As for the me v cycoden thing, I just assumed that people were given the lists of other peoples roles. Apparently previously Cycoden played a game where that didn't happen, so he assumed that. Seeing as it was really just speculation, I hardly see how either mine or Cycoden's posts there were scummy. As for the second sentence, I defended against it previously, the basic idea is that people were massively speculating on me being the godfather (and still are), so I was doing much the same. I know the 'if I was' seems scummy, but I was more pointing out that I didn't think the whole idea of me+Martin collaborating like that was a good one.
existential_elevator wrote:If people take away anything from this, then really, they should be looking at day 1 as a smokescreen. People who were seen to make the right choices on day one were not necessarily townies. Of course, Mafia would have had a chance to confer on night one, and perhaps would have agreed to cut their loses and lynch a mafia-mate, to make them all look more innocent. It's all about team-play, and we should not expect the Mafia to be anything less than ruthless.

Ok, so basically you're saying that because I seemed townie on D1 I must be scum. So therefore because I pushed against a Martin lynch and was convinced Kipper was scum, I must be town, right? Don't give me that shit. I'd never argue that I was definitely town because of what I did, nor would I use it to get away with or negate my day 3 actions, but please, that's just counter-intuitive.
Now, I think most of us are willing to say that one of Amy/Une See is town. We know kipper is town. I know I am town. And we know that Nikc has barely done anything noteworthy. So, this is a pretty fail scum alignment, and all it serves to do is try and cast doubt on people who are town. Now, I think that Martin, Korora and Dedalus might have been trying to push a lynch of Nikc as a possible second lynch of a scum-mate that would iron-clad them in their towniness. Martin definitely would have needed to do something special to save himself had we not lynched him. I really think that. As for not doing good work for town, I think myself, Amy and Une have been pushing the most analysis, aside from cycoden

Honestly, I had that suspicion. It all worked out in my mind; Kipper was defending his scumbuddy, Amy was distancing from Kipper, Nikc Amy and E_E were jumping on Martin because they thought he really was the cop. However, upon posting those suspicions I really wasn't trying to put attention on those players, in fact I was implying that my theories were wrong (though I didn't explicitly state this, apologies). And the point I said was 'I had been taking the view that people hadn't been doing good work for town'. Please don't twist my words, thankyou. That part you quoted was mostly an apology for being a dumbass.
existential_elevator wrote:It seems mostly a lie. Az had voted for dedalus, and quite on his own. Which, you know, isn't bandwagoning. If anyone is guilty of vote-hopping like mad, we know it's Rayksh. He's really trying for the subtle OMGUS swaying of opinion, but boy do I see through that. With laser beams.

Ummm... I didn't pick him up for JUST jumping on me. He's been doing it all game, and I find it fairly weird. I'm not trying for the subtle OMGUS swaying of opinion; if I want a vote for someone, I post a reason. I'd hardly expect to just sway the opinion and have people jumping on his backs without some decent analysis.

existential_elevator wrote:I think myself, Amy and Une have been pushing the most analysis,

but boy do I see through that. With laser beams.

Get over yourself.

Does anyone else have further accusations?
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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby existential_elevator » Wed Jul 01, 2009 10:14 am UTC

dedalus wrote:Ok, so basically you're saying that because I seemed townie on D1 I must be scum. So therefore because I pushed against a Martin lynch and was convinced Kipper was scum, I must be town, right? Don't give me that shit. I'd never argue that I was definitely town because of what I did, nor would I use it to get away with or negate my day 3 actions, but please, that's just counter-intuitive.

For a bit of clarification, I bring this up because people have been reluctant to consider you because of seeming very pro-town on Day 1. And I quote:
une see wrote:
korora wrote:I'll admit that I'm finding it very difficult to analyze dedalus, mostly because he's agreed with what I've said so frequently... it's sort of like a reverse-OMGUS. I'd like to see an analysis of him from someone I trust. At this point it looks like the only reason to vote him is that Martin said he was town, which is pretty WIFOM.

Now that's just lazy. That's exactly what dedalus did D3; he said the only reason to vote for Martin was meta-related, when that wasn't true at all. If you look back at the D3 posts about dedalus, or even just at dedalus' D3 posts, you should see all the other reasons that he was suspicious yesterday...Although, again, I'm conflicted on dedalus, seeing as how he was so pro-town D1.

By your own admission, we shouldn't disregard people who have been making protown choices early on. And we know that Martin himself did a lot to look like a good townie on the first couple of days.
I am not saying that all people who seemed town are scum. I am saying that we need to make sure that we don't let Day 1 pro-town decisions act as a protective smokescreen against potential scum. That is all.

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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 3!

Postby cycoden » Wed Jul 01, 2009 11:24 am UTC

Hello everyone.

First, its worth having a perusal of martin's posts

Unfortunately, I don't see much thats helpful: martin asked to be replaced and when that didn't happen, took the nuclear option. The important question to answer: Was martin the traitor? I'm thinking this is unlikely, but I'd like to hear contrary arguments, if anyone has any.

VZ wrote:
cycoden wrote:
Sungura wrote:Felstaff, if i understand correctly, some folks think Dedalus is the godfather because they think Martin is scum falseclaimed cop and said dedalus is town so if the real cop cops him dedalus turns up as town but the godfather will always show up as town to an investigation. So, it's like the mafia covering for the godfather in a way that you can't figure out. That is the theory anyway.
I don't mean to be picking on you, but I thought I should point out that this means that the godfather has revealed himself (or herself) to the other mafiosos, which he may not have done, if he was concerned about being betrayed.

I've never been mafia, but now it's been pointed out I believe this is how the futuramafia mafia ran: coincidentally, when cycoden was the godfather.
What makes you think this - I was the donbot and I don't know whether the other mafia were advised of my role. I was only advised of the names of my fellow scum in that game. Korora could probably advise whether the other mafia knew who I was.

...you've really never been mafia?

une wrote:What do you guys mean, btw, with "une's still alive so you know what that means." I don't know what it means...
You don't? The reasoning is is that if you were town, the mafia would have killed you now because you are so damn awesome at this game. Therefore, if you are still alive, you must be scum. Of course, the mafia haven't exactly managed to succeed with their kills recently, so the logic is somewhat flawed...

Rakysh wrote:Exactly. Where I scum (I hate playing this game) I wouldn't have shopped my scum-mate so quickly, and I wouldn't have on/offed so much.
You hate playing this game? Indeed you must be quite the masochist, good sir. But this, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, THIS, is WIFOM of the most pointless kind...

Entropy wrote:It generally strikes me that flying under the radar is the biggest scumtell, so I looked back over the last few days and saw that Silknor matches this pattern well.

He only had one post on Day 3, the main point of which was "Martin is obviously scum aligned, but he is too good a player to make a panicked/ballsy cop claim, so he must be trying to get lynched. Lets not vote him." Seeing as accusing him of being a jester was off the table, he worked to come up with a different role that could justify not lynching Martin for being scummy: "He must be a supporter who is trying to run interference".

Making this claim strikes me as an attempt to protect Martin without sticking his neck out to deny Martin's scummy behavior. Scum supporters are not jesters, and painting them as such strikes me as very off.

Day 2, he also kept his head down. Though he had more posts, all he really said was "I'm on board for a Brook lynch today" and "more discussion is good", neither of which are real contributions.

Since his only real contribution in the last two days seems off to me, and since I don't believe a FoS has any weight, I'm going to:

Vote: Silknor
Entropy, while I agree that silknor is suspicious, I disagree with your reasoning on the behaviour of the mafia supporter. Scum supporters very much might act like jesters - remember, they don't know who the scum are, so they need to work out how they can best benefit the scum. Being attractive lynching targets and water-muddiers is the best sure fire way of achieving their goals.

For example, in Mafia Round Five, drconcon claimed cop (and accidently got a scum lynched) as a mafia supporter. This subsequently led to the lynching of one of the real cops.

In Inquisition, I was a member of the mafia supporting masons, and we worked hard to get lynch town players and make ourselves obvious targets for execution. We all died, but the scum (and hence us) won.

The above two cases are largely why I agreed with Silky's analysis of martin, and considered it highly likely he was a mafia supporter.
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Spoiler:
Bulvox wrote:This is probably one of the few times that I'll agree with Cycoden on anything. I just wish that my brain worked like that.

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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 3!

Postby VectorZero » Wed Jul 01, 2009 1:58 pm UTC

cycoden wrote:What makes you think this - I was the donbot and I don't know whether the other mafia were advised of my role. I was only advised of the names of my fellow scum in that game. Korora could probably advise whether the other mafia knew who I was.

BXM told me when I recruited him that he didn't know who had what role.

...you've really never been mafia?

Nope: few townies, coupla cults. 1 is the loneliest number :(

My apologies for my continued low contributoriness: I had planned to look back at bio today but works been a bitch and tomorrow's not looking good either.
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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby crucialityfactor » Wed Jul 01, 2009 1:59 pm UTC

Dedalus-1 (Azrael001)
Silknor- 1(Entropy)

Also, I wasn't aware that Nikc wanted to be replaced, he was all willing to replace kells...sigh...we'll figure something out...

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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby VectorZero » Wed Jul 01, 2009 2:04 pm UTC

EBWOP: sorry, realized my post cycoden quoted was misleading: I meant that in futuramafia the godfather had the option to reveal themselves, not that they had.
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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 3!

Postby Rakysh » Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:10 pm UTC

cycoden wrote:
Rakysh wrote:Exactly. Where I scum (I hate playing this game) I wouldn't have shopped my scum-mate so quickly, and I wouldn't have on/offed so much.
You hate playing this game? Indeed you must be quite the masochist, good sir. But this, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, THIS, is WIFOM of the most pointless kind...


Not the Mafia game. The WIFOM game. But looking at my choices throughout the last day, they make little to no sense were I scum.

My gut dislikes Ded, but not in a way that has any basis in fact or anything silly like that. Silky has been nonexistant this game, and pretty lurky.

Vote:Silky.

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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby korora » Wed Jul 01, 2009 6:02 pm UTC

e_e analysis ahoy! I would spoiler it, but there are spoilers in her quotes so it doesn't work.

This is what I said about her at the beginning of D3:
korora wrote:13. existential_elevator: Well, she hasn't been a big poster in the game. I know she joined late, but 4 posts since the middle of day one isn't a spectacular track record. She posted solid D2 analysis of Brook, but at that point his lynch was more or less a foregone conclusion, so the fact that he came up scum doesn't exonerate her. Aside from that, there's not a whole lot to look at... she asks for "Sungura discussion", but doesn't weigh in herself. Hm.
I listed her as slightly scummy. The next thing that really happens is the whole Martin claim business. Here's what she says:
existential_elevator wrote:See, I am pretty uneasy about the cop claim, especially since, as Sungura just pointed out, if it's a false claim the real cop is not going to stand up and contest it, because it's a bit safer to hide in the background until you have some good info. If you were scum, under fire, and wanting to live the night, you would claim cop and hope for the best.

In this situation, the following scenarios are possible:

We lynch him : he is cop
We lynch him : he is town
We lynch him: he is scum
We don't lynch him : Mafia NK him, he is cop/town
We don't lynch him : Mafia don't NK him. We then have to argue if we think he is cop/scum.

From now on, the longer he stays alive, the more suspicious he gets...
I would be tempted to say that we should see if he gets NKd, then lynch him, but that would then give the Mafia the tactical advantage.
I've been having trouble nailing down why I get weird vibes from this: I think what it is is that she puts up content—different scenarios—without actually drawing any conclusions from it; she doesn't use the scenarios to argue one way or the other. This is a definite pattern in her posts, and I don't think it's very town. It gives the illusion of participation, when all it really is is summarizing. The only real analysis in this post is saying that scum under fire could easily claim cop—so you can see why I think she's pro-Martin-lynch.
existential_elevator wrote:
korora wrote:
existential_elevator wrote:See, I am pretty uneasy about the cop claim, especially since, as Sungura just pointed out, if it's a false claim the real cop is not going to stand up and contest it, because it's a bit safer to hide in the background until you have some good info. If you were scum, under fire, and wanting to live the night, you would claim cop and hope for the best.
Also, you're misreading Amy's post. As a vanilla townie, claiming cop under fire is pro-town if you can draw the hitman shot and keep attention away from the actual cop. Far better to go down keeping the cop safe than to be lynched as a townie.

If MartinW is town, the scum have to try to look through the WIFOM and decide whether he's really the cop. If he's scum, he has to provide "investigations" every day. Either way, it's almost certainly best not to lynch Martin. I suggest the doctor protect him to prevent roleblocking and to force the scum to use the hitman if they want to kill him.


Oh, I read what Amy was saying just fine, it's that I wanted to point out that there was another way of interpreting things. The generous reading is that he's a vanilla townie trying to save both himself and the cop. The not so generous reading feeds into what I've already said.

The investigations he gives are of someone who is already dead, and of someone he suspects to be "innocent". Given there is no cult, any Mafia member could pick a townie and call them town. That's not a hard investigation to bluff.

I've also learned in my short time playing that une see is usually right about these things. But I agree with what Korora suggests above here. If we can get another investigation from Martin, great. Someone might also feel like contesting the cop claim more tomorrow and perhaps they can supply us with more info. In any case, we could be in a better position to decide over him tomorrow, and we could get lucky with a lynch today. Best case scenario would be that Martin is scum and we can prove this tomorrow, and that we can lynch another scum today, and that the cop stays safe through all of this.

I wonder if we'll get any inventions soon, too. I've not seen them in action properly in a game yet.
Not a whole lot to say about this one, actually, except that I mistrust anyone who implicitly trusts someone based on past success. Also, that looks like a subtle call for the inventor to claim, which seems like a bad idea unless they have information to share. There's some analysis here, but there's not a whole lot that's new.
existential_elevator wrote:
korora wrote:I'm getting really suspicious, as a matter of fact, about the people who haven't mentioned Martin once all game and are now jumping in and trying to lynch the claimed cop because he's "so scummy". This is e_e, Nikc, and Rakysh, who are putting up overblown analysis and/or no analysis whatsoever in their attempt to get him lynched.

I'm not sure why you're constantly misreading me. Pretty much after everything I've posted I've had to clarify something for you. Do I need to clarify again that I'm not trying to get Martin lynched today? I'm supporting the "let's lynch him tomorrow" argument, and may it be known that I did point out the WIFOM aspect of that. Like I said, unless someone is brave enough to make a counter-claim, then Martin will be getting more and more suspicious. Especially with those convenient investigations.
Here is Une's analysis, in case anyone else missed it, due to a spoiler allergy, presumably.

I haven't gone through and done a post-by-post analysis, because Une already has. Isn't that where the discussion is coming from? But if you want me to add to that with limited new material:

Spoiler:
MartinW wrote:OK, my defence against Une See's arguments.

In summary: makes the terrible suggestion that everyone should act scummy to hide the traitor;

I was actually against this. I mentioned last time I tried it it failed horribly, and it certainly is a terrible idea. I was just putting it up for discussion to get D1 started.

Except he promises to look at the game, and then...doesn't

I didn't get around to much. I actually did a very small amount of analysis, but didn't get anywhere. This is a repeated trend sadly.

And then my strange reaction around Brook and my general strategy. The full reason requires a role claim: I'm the cop, and I got scum on Brook. I did lie a bit low, because I really didn't want to get NK'd. I'm trying rather hard not to stand out for the same reason. I did say we need to discuss because I didn't want to appear to lead a lynch on Brook and so give away my role, but I was also overeager to get him lynched; hence my scummy vote. I was trying to appear like a townie who was sure Brook was scum, but a townie which didn't have an investigation and made a complete hash of it. I'm not very good at not standing out.

Reason why I'm claiming? The evidence is pretty much against me (but my being cop explains most of the tells). I'd rather be taken out by the scum's hitman than lynched, giving the town an extra kill.
I've bolded the last part because it rings pretty true with what Une is saying about Martin acting "too" town. Like I said, it invites a WIFOM situation.

For me, this rebuttal does not put to rest any of the concerns that Une raised adequately.


Provided I get time, I'm going to have a go over today, and maybe day 2, and see if anyone else is standing out, and also have a good look at who's lurking or not posting much content.
I don't know... I don't think that pointing to someone else's analysis and saying "There it is!" is necessarily good enough. By hiding behind une's analysis, e_e completely avoids discussing why she thinks Martin is scummy. And it's not as if une necessarily caught everything, even if you agree with everything she put up.
existential_elevator wrote:Okay, here's my look at Day 3 so far!

Surviving players:
Spoiler:
2. dedalus
3. une see
4. korora
5. Azrael001
6. b.i.o
8. Sungura
9. Silknor
10. Entropy
11. Rakysh
12. MartinW
13 existential_elevator
14. Nikc
15. Vector Zero
16. Bulvox Felstaff?
17. cycoden
18. Vieto
19. Kipper
21. Master_Rahl22
22. Dromtry


Summary of events:
Spoiler:
Amy's analysis here
FoS on Amy by VZ here
Korora and Dedalus contest VZ here
Bio's voting pattern analysis here
dedalus' analysis of Kipper here
VZ's analysis of MR22 here
Cycoden's analysis of Day 2 here
Une's general analysis here
Une's Martin analysis here
Korora's general analysis here
dedalus says that if Kipper is scum then Amy is suspicious here
Azrael votes Martin here
Amy explains reasons against Brooklynxman here
Martin's defense against Une See here
A little back and forth between Amy and dedalus about Martin and the NK here
The start of the Martin back and forth with me and Korora here
Vieto... posts here
Az unvotes here
Rakysh unotes here
Mini Une See analysis here
Az votes and unvotes, leaving me a little confused here
Nikc thinks there is no other obvious lynch candidate here
Korora attacks Nikc here
dedalus does what Korora does here
Bio FoS Nikc here
Une defends here

Hopefully, you people who think there is no other lynch candidate will see from the above where the other analyses are.

Some of my comments:
Spoiler:
I want to say more about Korora's analysis. I find his defence/analysis of dedalus pretty lacking. He's also pushing blame on Amy, and saying that MR22 is definitely town. There's a lot of pretty subtle opinion in there that could easy go under the radar. It makes me a little uneasy. I notice that him and dedalus seem to back eachother up a lot too. At the moment, Korora is definitely rubbing me the wrong way. That could just be crossed fuses at the moment. Particularly when I feel like we're agreeing/saying similar things about Martin, but Korora is still turning it into a disagreement. Perhaps I'm just not being clear enough.

Also, Az and Vieto have pretty much not contributed anything. Az is vote-hopping mainly, and then registering suspicions with little evidence

The thing that bothers me most about the Korora & dedalus vs Amy thing is that to me it means that one of them knows something. Bringing Kipper into it when its likely he'll be modkilled too is.. well. All I'm saying is that if dedalus was scum, and he knows Kipper's alignment, then slipping in that back there [that if Kipper is scum, then Amy is suspicious] is a pretty loaded statement. Why do you both want rid of Amy? Bio was also on that wagon. Bio does look the most sound town to me, but still. He could be involved, or just swept up. Amy has implicated Brooklynxman, so I wonder if Korora and dedalus are trying to protect him? I really just don't know what way it will go, but I feel pretty confident that one of the names in this paragraph will show up scum.

This is a lot of wild speculation, but someone better than me see if that might ring true.

There have been quite a few no-posters today, so far, too. Would be nice to see them come out of the shadows


Anyway, I hope some of that is of use to someone. Hopefully the summary is pretty helpful.
This again is mostly summary, not analysis. The third spoiler is where the meat is, and it focuses on my analysis. In retrospect, I can't help but think that this is tinged with OMGUS, since I was the only person to list e_e as scummy at the start of D3. And I feel like framing what I said about dedalus as a "defense" is misleading. The rest of that first paragraph, fine, we had a misunderstanding about e_e's opinions about Martin, whatever.

But where it really gets surreal is in the third paragraph. I actually continue to have problems wrapping my head around this part. Without quotes, it's hard to follow her train of thought at all here, and I end up asking for clarification. Actually, let's look at her next post together with this one:
existential_elevator wrote:
korora wrote:However, um, I'm really confused by your comments in the third spoiler... I think you switched some names around?
e_e wrote:The thing that bothers me most about the Korora & dedalus (???) vs Amy thing is that to me it means that one of them knows something. Bringing Kipper into it when its likely he'll be modkilled too is.. well. All I'm saying is that if dedalus was scum, and he knows Kipper's alignment, then slipping in that back there [that if Kipper is scum, then Amy is suspicious] is a pretty loaded statement. Why do you both want rid of Amy? Bio was also on that wagon. Bio does look the most sound town to me, but still. He could be involved, or just swept up. Amy has implicated Brooklynxman, so I wonder if Korora and dedalus are trying to protect him? I really just don't know what way it will go, but I feel pretty confident that one of the names in this paragraph will show up scum.
Do you mean me & Bio vs. Amy? Brooklynxman is dead, who did you mean to put there? From a previous paragraph, why do you expect a "defense" of dedalus from me?

Sorry to continue the trend of requiring clarification! I think this time it's merited.

Sorry, I was finding it kind of hard to articulate what I meant.
Amy had defended her speculation of Brooklynxman being a power role, which you questioned. This post here
Dedalus at that point was saying he was no longer so certain that Amy is scum.
When I am talking about your defense/analysis of dedalus, I am referring to your analysis post [here]. Your comment on dedalus:
Spoiler:
2. dedalus: pushed the wagon on Brook pretty far D1, continued it D2. I don't see much to complain about.

is pretty empty, considering the rest of your analysis, and I would consider it to be lacking and/or an unwillingness to give over information.

I will admit that I had forgotten that Brooklyn was dead already [I always get him confused in my mind with NAR - sorry.] so it wouldn't make sense to say that you were trying to posthumously defend him, but it still seems odd that you'd jump down on Amy for a speculation that was proved true when day came [ie, that he was a scum power role].

I can't help but assume that you and dedalus are grouped somehow. You seem to be agreeing with eachother, and posting the same or similar arguments.
OK, so let's look at this. She starts with the assumption that because two people think another person is suspicious, one of them must know something... which, uh, doesn't even make sense. And I'm not sure why the Kipper thing is "loaded", either. Then she suggests that dedalus and I are defending Brook, of all things. Even if we believe that she forgot Brook was dead, dedalus and I led the D1 bandwagon on Brook.
existential_elevator wrote:I'm really torn, damnit.

I'm just not so sure that Nikc has really condemned himself. Martin still seems the better lynch.
Vote: Martin
Now this is a sudden change. For the record, I have not excluded any D3 posts so far. Last we heard from her, e_e agreed that Martin should be left alive—and she was getting angry at me for misreading her posts that said so. Now, without any reasoning—and without any analysis about Nikc whatsoever—she's dismissed the Nikc lynch in favor of voting Martin. Regardless of the fact that Martin came back scum, this is a shifty move. She gets some heat for it later from dedalus, and this is her response:
existential_elevator wrote:
Azrael001 wrote:I still think that Dedalus is the Godfather. A false claiming cop, "confirming" someone innocent will not be trusted, so the real cop is likely to check the "confirmed" townie. Picking the only scum that turns up innocent would be something that I think would be done to create confusion.

This actually sounds incredibly plausible to me. At this stage, I would really like to vote Korora or Dedalus, but I think that will need to wait for tomorrow. The more I think about it, the less I think there is to be gained from keeping Martin in the game any longer. As I initially said, he will just look more suspicious the longer he is alive. We could squeeze another cop out of him, I suppose, but until we kill him we won't know how to read his copping. And, well, this is all dragging on for so long that if he is scum they'll have been able to come up with a good enough double-bluff. I really am on the fence. Really, really on the fence. I don't honestly think there's a good enough reason to vote Nikc yet either.

And Dedalus, I think you're being too hard on me. Bear in mind I was a replacement. It took me really most of Day 2 to get my footing. I regret my Day 1 vote, and I should have swapped it then, but I didn't want to spend my first couple posts vote-hopping, because that's never good. I goddamned hate vote hopping. This is only my second game, too :P

That said.
Unvote

I am so going for Az' logic. And I do think that we shouldn't be lynching Martin just yet. Though I also really hate the idea that it means we'll definitely lynch him tomorrow. That gives scum too much planning time. We have no goddamned way of knowing we can trust him unless we get a counter-claim. We do not want a short day 4.

I'm not going to re-vote until I make my mind up :?

Pre-post edit - and yes, Rak, that is making a lot of sense. But yes,I am going to sit on the fence a while longer.
I don't get a whole lot out of this post. She was pretty quick to unvote when a little pressure was put on her—a reason for her vote would have sufficed.
existential_elevator wrote:Comparison to Brook? We'd be doing you a favour?
That's a highly anti-town post, but I'm getting more of a mafia supporter vibe, maybe. Offering yourself up to lynch could easily be protecting bigger Mafia fish.
:| Any thoughts, guys?
Again, very reticent to draw conclusions from events.
existential_elevator wrote:You're right on that, dedalus. Let's see.. Here's the player list:

Spoiler:
Player List:
1. MasterOfAll: Vanilla Townie (lynched D1)
2. bravewolf127 dedalus
3. une see
4. korora
5. Azrael001
6. b.i.o
7. Brooklynxman: Mafia Inventor (lynched D2)
8. Sungura
9. Silknor
10. Entropy
11. Rakysh
12. MartinW
13. michaelandjimi existential_elevator
14. kellsbells Nikc
15. Megatriorchis Vector Zero
16. Bulvox Felstaff
17. cycoden
18. Vieto
19. Tokol Kipper - being modkilled N3
20. mister k: Mafia Supporter (Killed N1)
21. Master_Rahl22
22. Dromtry


I'd like more from MR22 [especially given he's someone with a vote on him], Bio, Dromtry, Entropy, Silknor and Vieto
existential_elevator wrote:Do we have a deadline?
Fairly empty posts. I'm tempted to read the deadline question as a request, speeding the day along... but it's a little out there, I'll admit.
existential_elevator wrote:In the meantime, I've decided to go have a look for myself at MR22 to see if there's anything there.
Spoiler:
Day 1:
Master_Rahl22 wrote:I think Martin's idea is horrible and doesn't do anything but muddy the waters. The traitor's best bet is to lay low until late game when one vote is more important. In fact I think the idea is bad enough that it deserves a vote.

Vote: MartinW

Vote for Martin. Well. Isn't that what we're doing now? Again, this is in relation to the traitor talk, so it could all be pretty WIFOM

Master_Rahl22 wrote:Wow based on CF's clarifications on the traitor, I'd vote for Martin again if I wasn't already. The whole "traitor should try to influence the lynch" thing is just a really quick way to get the traitor offed.

After reading through the setup again, it seems that there are no absolutes. The doctor protects against everything but the Hitman's 1-shot. The cop is sane but 3 scum show as town and 1 town shows as scum. That means that a scum result from an investigation will only be wrong in the case of the traitor, who of course can't claim traitor. I'm thinking mainly we need to be careful about "confirmed townies" and not let a town result from an investigation let people off the hook for scummy behavior.

Anybody else have some thoughts on the setup or on whether MartinW is scum?

Master_Rahl22 wrote:Ok, you're right it was an addition and not a clarification. The idea was still bad, but it's less scummy than I thought at first.

Unvote

Come on people let's get some more discussion here.


Okay, so an unvote for Martin based on a clarification.
Have we really been this Martin-obsessed the whole game?

Master_Rahl22 wrote:I honestly didn't expect that we would lynch MartinW right away, but that vote did two things. First, since I don't believe FOS have any meaning at all, it made it clear to everyone that I thought MartinW's idea was bad at best, and scummy at worst. Second, it clearly provided something to talk about on day 1.

Day 1's are generally spent role and flavor speculating in closed setups, or discussing whether or not to lurker lynch to start the day off. Since there's no need to speculate about roles and flavor in this game, we can see that we've already started talking about lurker lynches. I'm not opposed to lurker lynches in and of themselves, but when we've only had 1 1/2 pages of discussion when it comes up, then I get suspicious. When that person admits that he won't reread things, then I think we've found a better target than a lurker.

Vote: MoA

Ninja'd: Entropy, the reason I unvoted Martin was because I had actually interpreted the Traitor role exactly as the additional rules CF added make it. Thus I was thinking that he was merely clarifying what was already on page 1. When I went back and looked and realized that those two rules hadn't previously been there, it took Martin's idea a step back from scummy to just a bad idea or not clearly thought through like you said.



Master_Rahl22 wrote:It could very well be that MoA is just lazy, but then why doesn't he just join the IRC games which take much less time and effort to get his mafia fix? He says he doesn't want to reread things, and I propose we make it so he doesn't have to. :twisted: Seriously though, a townie's best weapon is re-reading and analysis and to give that up so readily makes me question his townieness.


Master_Rahl22 wrote:I am not opposed to lurker lynches as a concept, but I think we should at least try some mod prods first. Here is a list I put together of our lurkers so far.

Lurker - Postcount
Bravewolf - 1
Korora - 1
Rakysh - 3 posts, none with content
michaelandjimi - 1, but said he's busy and may lurk early
kellsbells - 5 posts, 1 with content
Megatriorchis - 0
Bulvox - 1
cycoden - 1, said he's busy and may lurk early
Vieto - 4 posts, 1 with content
Tokol - 0

Ok so a few of those people aren't lurking per se, but they also aren't contributing to the game. That's really sad that almost half of the players in this game either aren't posting or aren't posting content.

CF/Gojoe, Can we get mod-prods on the people who aren't posting?

If pokes from the mods don't help, I say we start lynching lurkers. I am a bit suspicious though of people who jumped on Mega as the first prospect immediately. Yes she hasn't posted, but Tokol also has 0 posts and quite a few other people are lurking as well.


Master_Rahl22 wrote:Brook, I understand what you're getting at, but I'm concerned that the first person/persons to pick Mega are the ones directing a lynch against a townie. I just went back and looked and MoA was the first person to vote Mega. Since I still don't like his explanation and still find him scummy, I'm even less inclined to have Mega be our lurker lynch target today. Personally I feel that MoA would make a better lynch than a lurker, but since he's the one that suggested Mega I'd settle for any lurker other than Mega, if that makes any sense.



Master_Rahl22 wrote:Brook, I understand what you're getting at, but I'm concerned that the first person/persons to pick Mega are the ones directing a lynch against a townie. I just went back and looked and MoA was the first person to vote Mega. Since I still don't like his explanation and still find him scummy, I'm even less inclined to have Mega be our lurker lynch target today. Personally I feel that MoA would make a better lynch than a lurker, but since he's the one that suggested Mega I'd settle for any lurker other than Mega, if that makes any sense.


Master_Rahl22 wrote:Bio I think it was already clear that the wagon on MoA had slowed down. The problem with your reasoning about voting for me is that a vote says "I want to lynch this person." Now, if you want to lynch me because you don't want MoA lynched too fast, then there's something wrong. This seems super scummy to me, and I think you just made my top prospect for lynch day 1.

Unvote

Vote: B.i.o.


Master_Rahl22 wrote:Sorry I haven't posted much lately, lots of RL happening this weekend leaves not so much time for catching up in the thread.

B.i.o., my vote on you wasn't an OMGUS vote, it was an OMGBITSPTMN vote (Oh me yarm Bio is the scummiest player to me now). You gave what was possibly the worst/scummiest excuse I have ever seen for a vote, and in my eyes it elevated you to above MoA and Brooklynxman as top scum prospect of the moment. I doubt that with a deadline I will be able to convince anybody of that, so I will

Unvote

I'm inclined to believe Kipper's metagame analysis of MoA, and I already found him scummy, so I will put him at lynch-1 and maybe we don't need to wait for the deadline.

Vote: MoA


Master_Rahl22 wrote:I'm torn. I still feel like MoA is scum, but Brook has been acting very strange. If two people switch from MoA to Brook, Brook will be lynched instead. I will think about things some more today and consider changing my vote.

He does not switch to Brook. Who we know to be scum.

Day 2 starts
Master_Rahl22 wrote:Ok, I am caught up but I'd like to do a re-read before I vote. Too many people are voting Brook for them all to be scum, and I did find him suspicious yesterday, but I'd like to go back over day 1 before voting. It's cool that the mafia supporter was lynched, but unfortunately we won't gain much at all from analyzing mister k since he didn't post much, and he didn't know who the scum were. Ok I will post more once I've re-read the thread.


Day 2 is plagued by the "re-read". Which is pretty funny because he does poke fun at MoA for not wanting to re-read earlier.

Master_Rahl22 wrote:I apologize for the mis-typing in my earlier post. I was rushing to post before I had to leave for work and got mixed up with the lynch and the NK. I really don't see any reason to be suspicious of Sungura right now. I'll keep an eye on her posts as I go through D1, but seeing that analysis of her didn't make me feel any sort of scummy vibes. Also, I really want to hear from Brooklynxman before we just pile on votes and go straight to Night 2.

Procrastinating a Brook vote, while not really contributing any other candidates.

Master_Rahl22 wrote:Une see: I was alarmed at how quickly the wagon on Brooklynxman grew. Yes, he did some scummy things and was almost the lynch yesterday, but that wagon went incredibly fast. So what I was trying to say was that I was kinda suspicious that there were multiple scum hopping on his wagon, but that enough people had voted that at least some of them had to be townies and thus genuinely thought Brook was scummy.

I'm still not sure what to think in Brooklynxman's case. He has basically said that he knows he seems scummy and that it might be best for us to lynch him since he's just vanilla town, but I've seen scum do the same thing in a last ditch effort to avoid being lynched. I'm going to continue my re-read and will post my thoughts soon.


Master_Rahl22 wrote:I haven't yet completed my re-read, too much RL in the way. To be honest, I'm not sure we're going to get a wagon started on anybody else with a deadline set for tomorrow. I've seen nothing in my re-read that makes me think Brook is town, and several things that make me think he's scum. At this point I think it will be worthwhile to have another lynch to analyze.

Vote: Brooklynxman


There's a big chunk of his posts, not completely exhaustive. I have to say, his behaviour does strike me as odd.
For those of you not following so well, VZ replaced Mega.

I don't know, what kind of vibe do people get from that? He seemed very reluctant to vote for Brook, and also quite keen to push MoA or another random who is not Mega/VZ. He was also pushing the Martin train pretty early on. It seems he was following Kipper's lead. We're really going to have a lot to think about tomorrow when we know what Kipper's alignment was.

Pre-post edit: I don't think it's a bad thing at all to be throwing around ideas, even if they are far-fetched.
OK, so she gathered a bunch of MR22 quotes, but the analysis is seriously lax. Again, she's putting up a lot of text without really saying anything about it, and asking what we think about it.
existential_elevator wrote:Dedalus, your post says no, no; but your votes say yes, yes.

I notice that the votes on Nikc are from You, Korora and Martin. Given that Nikc hasn't exactly posted prolifically, I don't personally count him as a better lynch candidate than any of the other many demi-lurkers. It's interesting that you should be voting the same way as Martin, though, huh? MR22 is, in my opinion, a better looking candidate than Nikc, by a significant margin, if you happened to be looking for a Martin alternative.

I'm going to go right ahead and vote: dedalus

Oh, and I'm going back through for some other things.

Does this strike you as something odd for someone about to claim cop to say?
Spoiler:
MartinW wrote:I also think we should wait a bit before just jumping on and lynching brook. We should at least have some more discussion. Discussion is always helpful to the town. I shall try to get some analysis in later today.

WRT to Brook: He seems pretty much dead in the water unless there's a cop claim defending him. If he is mafia I think the mafia may decide to cut their losses (and not get dragged down with him) and jump on the bandwagon early (which means less discussion, a quicker night and a lot of townie points for them.). This is something we should consider in our analysis.


Also, this could/should be something to consider
Spoiler:
dedalus wrote:Personally, overdefending is not a scumtell to me. I'll do it myself more when I'm town then scum, in part this is because defending too much draws attention. I would say that the desperation is a bit scummy, seeing as MoA was more annoyed when he had to defend in length last time I saw it. But either way, I'll keep my vote on Brook, if anything for pressures sake.


dedalus wrote:I wouldn't go saying that 'because I argued against lynching town and voted scum, I'm town'. It makes a lot of sense for scum to seem to be making the right decisions (and it certainly is easier for them to pick scum and town), because trust gives them more sway over the general consensus.
First off, her reason for voting dedalus is absolutely horrible. It boils down to the fact that dedalus and Martin happened to both be voting Nikc—Martin clearly out of self-preservation—and assuming that because e_e doesn't agree that Nikc is scummy, it's inconceivable that anyone else would find him scummy, and therefore dedalus must be trying to protect Martin. Never mind the fact that dedalus and I explicitly stated that we wanted to lynch someone other than Martin yesterday... we weren't exactly hiding our opinion on it. And then the suggestion that he should vote MR22 instead—"agree with me or I'll vote for you!". Also, what happened to Nikc's post being "highly anti-town", just a little up the page?

Next she puts up some quotes and says "is this odd?" or "consider this:" without saying why they're odd (and the implication is clearly that by "odd" she means "scummy") or why they should be considered. Again: content without analysis. When I call her on it, this is what she says:
existential_elevator wrote:I've already given a post-chunk on MR22 and stated some reasons.

And well, as for what I just voted on dedalus, I just think it should be taken into consideration what he has said about how to defend yourself as scum/town, and on scum seeming to make the right decisions. That is all.
Now, the MR22 "chunk" barely stated reasons, and it certainly didn't state an opinion. And she still refuses to come out and say what she means about dedalus.
existential_elevator wrote:
Silknor wrote:
existential_elevator wrote:I would be tempted to say that we should see if he gets NKd, then lynch him, but that would then give the Mafia the tactical advantage.
I think we can all see how bad a strategy that would be. It’s worse than no lynching with the intent of letting the mafia get a free kill. Why even post that?
Because, uh, what I am saying there is that it's bad strategy? I believe I was pointing out in the rest of that post/discussion that we have this problem that the longer we leave him unkilled, the more suspicious he'll get so long as he isn't NK'd; not NK'ing/lynching him give Mafia the opportunity to use his suspiciousness tactically against us.

Your "ignore him" strategy works fine for me just now. But if people aren't going to shift their votes, well, I don't think it'll be a wasted lynch. We're going to know a lot more when the morning comes.
existential_elevator wrote:
Gojoe wrote:18:32 GMT
I'm afraid daylight savings foiled you again
Not much to see here.

OK, so that covers us up to the end of D3. My main takeaway here is that she's posting a lot of text without posting too much opinion/analysis. Here we go—onward—upward—D4:
existential_elevator wrote:I don't want to vote just yet, but I am behind a dedalus lynch. Like I pointed out yesterday, him, Martin and Korora followed the same vote-pattern while each started to make an effort to distance their opinions of eachother, right after I mentioned they'd been following suite. That still leaves us with 2 other Mafioso and one supporter. MR22 really needs to say a lot more today to convince me that he isn't anti-town. I'd like to have at least one other good-looking suspect on the list, too.

Now that we know Kipper is town, we could use someone trustworthy to re-read day 3 and go over all those claims of kipper links. I may hold off doing this myself for at least 24 hours, given I read the whole of SMCM today :shock:
I know this smacks of OMGUS, but I'm increasingly uneasy that she keeps posting analysis of dedalus and then just throwing me in casually. (Besides, I mistrusted her first). And saying that we "followed the same vote-pattern" is a really misleading way of putting things, when actually we just all voted Nikc. And, like I mentioned above, we weren't exactly covert about the fact that we thought someone other than Martin should be lynched. It's not as if it was a baseless bandwagon, either.
existential_elevator wrote:I'm very slowly going over day 3, and posting some thoughts here. Apologies if they are half finished. Hopefully it will fuel some good analysis.

On dedalus:
Spoiler:
There is a brief exchange here between dedalus and cycoden which I think could be very telling. For those of you not clicking back, it's a little exchange about how/whether Mafia knows eachother's roles.
Azreal picks that up as a slip and uses it as a reason to vote.
Azrael001 wrote:
dedalus wrote:I would've thought that everyone was given the list of who is godfather etc... but yeah I could be wrong. Honestly though, if I was godfather right now I'd be massively pissed that Martin even associated me with him more then anything.
This has made me about 90% sure that dedalus is scum, if not the Godfather. See the Nebuduck game for an exact parallel.

Vote: Dedalus

Being fair, the nature of the exchange could have implicated either dedalus or cycoden. Of course, it could equally be completely innocent, but it hasn't been that kind of game, now, has it? I would advise that people look closely at this and form their own opinion.

I noted here my own reasons for voting dedalus, in part, and brought out these particular quotes:
dedalus wrote:Personally, overdefending is not a scumtell to me. I'll do it myself more when I'm town then scum, in part this is because defending too much draws attention. I would say that the desperation is a bit scummy, seeing as MoA was more annoyed when he had to defend in length last time I saw it. But either way, I'll keep my vote on Brook, if anything for pressures sake.


dedalus wrote:I wouldn't go saying that 'because I argued against lynching town and voted scum, I'm town'. It makes a lot of sense for scum to seem to be making the right decisions (and it certainly is easier for them to pick scum and town), because trust gives them more sway over the general consensus.

If people take away anything from this, then really, they should be looking at day 1 as a smokescreen. People who were seen to make the right choices on day one were not necessarily townies. Of course, Mafia would have had a chance to confer on night one, and perhaps would have agreed to cut their loses and lynch a mafia-mate, to make them all look more innocent. It's all about team-play, and we should not expect the Mafia to be anything less than ruthless.

I think this is a pretty important dedalus post, too. Particularly the opening:
For the past few days I've been fairly convinced of an Amy/E_E/Une See/Kipper/Nikc scum team (if you don't believe me read my last spoiler in the discussion thread, just putting this here so people don't jump on me for inventing stuff). As such I've been kind of taking the view that aforementioned people aren't doing any good work for the town etc etc, but upon a good reread of the last day I'm fairly convinced that a lot of what was being said about Martin was good banter and tbh, suspicions about me are fairly justified. In saying that, I'll point out the following:
Now, I think most of us are willing to say that one of Amy/Une See is town. We know kipper is town. I know I am town. And we know that Nikc has barely done anything noteworthy. So, this is a pretty fail scum alignment, and all it serves to do is try and cast doubt on people who are town. Now, I think that Martin, Korora and Dedalus might have been trying to push a lynch of Nikc as a possible second lynch of a scum-mate that would iron-clad them in their towniness. Martin definitely would have needed to do something special to save himself had we not lynched him. I really think that. As for not doing good work for town, I think myself, Amy and Une have been pushing the most analysis, aside from cycoden
As for this:
Currently Az is looking fairly suss to me, because of the amount of flip-flopping and lack of content that he's been doing. I get the feeling that he's taking a lot of liberty with the 'oh don't worry, it's just Az, he does that', and surely by day 3 he could pick a player and stick to them for a bit longer. He seems to be quite content to bandwagon mostly anyone.

It seems mostly a lie. Az had voted for dedalus, and quite on his own. Which, you know, isn't bandwagoning. If anyone is guilty of vote-hopping like mad, we know it's Rayksh. He's really trying for the subtle OMGUS swaying of opinion, but boy do I see through that. With laser beams.

Here is his damning of Kipper


I'm running out of time now so I'm going to have to keep this short. Sorry. When I get back later I'll do some more. But.

cycoden
Spoiler:
I've had a look over his analyses the last day, and to be honest, he rings town to me. He does not seem to doggedly attack anyone in particular and will call out whoever he thinks needs calling out. If he has any allegiances, well, I can't tell them, and perhaps you'd need to go further back to see if there are any.

Here is one analysis.
Here is his post on Martin.
Here is an earlier analysis.

They are both very even-handed, and I think his thoughts on Martin were some of the most cogent we had all day.


As for other things, here is my brief go-over of MR22. The main complaint I had was that he seemed very reluctant to vote Brook.
And here is my summary. This link mainly for my own use later, but if other people find it helpful, that's good :P

It also struck me that Vieto made a few slips yesterday. And Silknor does look suspect. I'll have a better look later, and hopefully drag up more on cycoden, though I'm pretty convinced he's town.
Using une's analysis without providing your own is one thing, but doing that with Az is another story altogether. For one thing, uh, it's not even analysis. It's just a similar newbie question in, let me point out here, a newbie game. And then she tells us to consider it for ourselves yet again, without revealing her own thoughts.

And now she finally accompanies those two dedalus quotes with some analysis.

As for dedalus' scum list: I agree that it's definitely not 100%. But that doesn't make him scum. The thing about townies is that they're often wrong, and they often disagree. Otherwise it wouldn't be a game.

Given that my major complaint about e_e is that she's posting text sans analysis, her toot of her own horn doesn't ring true to me. She's been better about it D4, but I definitely wouldn't say that she's "pushing the most analysis". I think dedalus, certainly, has analyzed more than her—or does he not count because she suspects him?
existential_elevator wrote:
dedalus wrote:Ok, so basically you're saying that because I seemed townie on D1 I must be scum. So therefore because I pushed against a Martin lynch and was convinced Kipper was scum, I must be town, right? Don't give me that shit. I'd never argue that I was definitely town because of what I did, nor would I use it to get away with or negate my day 3 actions, but please, that's just counter-intuitive.

For a bit of clarification, I bring this up because people have been reluctant to consider you because of seeming very pro-town on Day 1. And I quote:
une see wrote:
korora wrote:I'll admit that I'm finding it very difficult to analyze dedalus, mostly because he's agreed with what I've said so frequently... it's sort of like a reverse-OMGUS. I'd like to see an analysis of him from someone I trust. At this point it looks like the only reason to vote him is that Martin said he was town, which is pretty WIFOM.

Now that's just lazy. That's exactly what dedalus did D3; he said the only reason to vote for Martin was meta-related, when that wasn't true at all. If you look back at the D3 posts about dedalus, or even just at dedalus' D3 posts, you should see all the other reasons that he was suspicious yesterday...Although, again, I'm conflicted on dedalus, seeing as how he was so pro-town D1.

By your own admission, we shouldn't disregard people who have been making protown choices early on. And we know that Martin himself did a lot to look like a good townie on the first couple of days.
I am not saying that all people who seemed town are scum. I am saying that we need to make sure that we don't let Day 1 pro-town decisions act as a protective smokescreen against potential scum. That is all.
I agree with this. However, it's not binary—some actions are more townie than others. Dedalus' extremely early analysis on Brook is still not outweighed by anything I've seen so far.

To sum up, the major thing here is that she's trying hard to give the illusion of participation without following through with her own analysis. This started when she asked for "Sungura discussion" without adding to it, and continued with several posts above where she posted facts but not opinions. On D4 she's finally starting to make posts with some meat on the bone, but I have to wonder if that was due to advice from scummates.

And man, Rakysh just keeps getting scummier.

For the record, in Bastard, PB, and SMCM (my scum games), we were not told one another's roles. Only their names. Futuramafia was the same.
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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby existential_elevator » Wed Jul 01, 2009 7:38 pm UTC

In my defence, I still have my analysis training wheels on, and of course I'm very happy for pointers. I hope I'm getting better. The main thing I'm taking away from this is that when I find something obvious I need to explain it anyway, because it might not be so obvious. Your post was pretty helpful, actually, to show me where I'm doing that, so thankyou. :)

This is technically my second game, though it feels more like my first, and I spent a large chunk of Day 1 / Day 2 being pretty bewildered trying to catch up with the backlog and get my head into the game. I'd, uh, been reading 2 or 3 other games, and had gotten a little confused as to which ones Brook had been lynched in :P Since I hadn't posted much in this one at that point, and it was moving very fast, I hadn't quite clicked which one I was actually playing. The hard life of a replacement! I'm getting better, I hope. I was torn on the Martin lynch because, well, although we may have had something to gain from keeping him alive and seeing if he played along with the cop claim, he seemed pretty obvi-scum to me, and there were definitely a lot of problems with not lynching him. There were really strong arguments on both sides.

I also don't really see a problem with standing behind someone else's analysis if you think it's pretty sound. Where you have picked me out, I was directing back to Une's analysis because I thought that was where the current discussion was coming from. And I did try to add to what she said, or provide some more support for what she said that rang true with me.

And, well, some of the places where you say I'm not putting my conclusions I would disagree with you. Particularly on the Nikc one. I did say that I thought he might be a supporter on the back of it.

Oh, and I never said I was pushing the most analysis! Don't put words in my mouth :)

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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby b.i.o » Wed Jul 01, 2009 7:38 pm UTC

Day 3 voting:
MR22 and Silknor are nowhere to be found. Can we get some some reminders tossed their way?

The following people voted for Martin and didn't change their votes:
Rakysh
Sungura
une see
entropy
vieto
nikc
dromtry

cycoden voted for rakysh and kept his vote there.
MartinW voted for nikc and kept his vote there.

Everyone else did some hopping around:
bio (kipper, mr22, rakysh)
dedalus (kipper, nikc, martin)
az (rakysh, martin, dedalus, rakysh)
korora (nikc, rakysh)
e_e (martin, dedalus)
vectorzero (dedalus, rakysh)

I'm too tired to figure out what any of this means right now. Actual analysis later tonight or tomorrow morning.

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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby Silknor » Wed Jul 01, 2009 8:15 pm UTC

Going to try to post more later today, haven't had time to read anything but the newspost.

I'm pretty surprised that Martin turned out scum goon, I guess I expected too much from him. I would just ignore everything he said about who he investigated, I don't see the investigation of dedalus he claimed as providing any info because:
First level of thinking would be he's scum so he's lying so dedalus is scum
Second would be he knows this so he's telling the truth so we lynch him
Third he knows this and thinks we'll reach the second level at least so dedalus is town again
Etc, on to randomness. I don't want to try to play mindgames there.
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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby dedalus » Wed Jul 01, 2009 10:18 pm UTC

Hey, and Silknor exists :O.

Man E_E, how come can you claim the meta excuse and you don't let up on me for making a few mistakes? Double standards much? (This is only the 4th game where I haven't died n1, and in SMCM i was more concerned about my iambic pentameter and following my gut tbh. And we shalt not talk about my other games...) And also;
existential_elevator wrote:I also don't really see a problem with standing behind someone else's analysis if you think it's pretty sound.

If you can do that, surely I can follow korora or cycoden's analysis for a bit? I've shown some small initiative myself on occasion, so I'm not JUST hanging off their backs.

Korora makes some damn good points with the e_e analysis.... Right now though, after this post:
Rakysh wrote:
cycoden wrote:
Rakysh wrote:Exactly. Where I scum (I hate playing this game) I wouldn't have shopped my scum-mate so quickly, and I wouldn't have on/offed so much.
You hate playing this game? Indeed you must be quite the masochist, good sir. But this, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, THIS, is WIFOM of the most pointless kind...


Not the Mafia game. The WIFOM game. But looking at my choices throughout the last day, they make little to no sense were I scum.

My gut dislikes Ded, but not in a way that has any basis in fact or anything silly like that. Silky has been nonexistant this game, and pretty lurky.

Vote:Silky.

Rakysh, seriously, you're throwing wine all over the place. And a two-sentence vote placing gut suspicion on me and voting Silknor for lurking? That just sounds like you're trying to get your vote down, get under the radar and hope to make it through the day.
vote:Rakysh
There's going to be some more analysis to get out of today, but I'm agreeing with amy that he's pretty damn scummy right now. Later today I'll try to pull up all the arguments against him so he can defend and I can re-evaluate (if someone else wants to do it, be my guest :D).
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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby Azrael001 » Thu Jul 02, 2009 1:55 pm UTC

It's been too long since anyone has posted. As I am also suspicious of Rak, and the game needs to get going again

Unvote

Vote: Rak
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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby korora » Thu Jul 02, 2009 4:25 pm UTC

Yeah, it's gotten pretty silent in here. I can only assume that everyone is still reading my previous post.

Well, because every time he posts it makes him look scummier:

Vote: Rakysh
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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby Felstaff » Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:46 pm UTC

That was quite the weighty analysis. I can't believe you didn't start your post with "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times..."

The strange thing is, you both strike me as so intrinsically townish, it's like Mother Teresa & Florence Nightingale trying to argue who's the bigger Bitch Queen from Hell.

I'm not convinced on the whole Rakysh being a Mafia Criminal though. I'm swayed slightly negatively by the 'if I were scum, I would do it this way', because if I were scum, I'd never use that as a form of defence.

Anyway, until something solid about Rakysh comes up, like a violin case with a tommy gun in it or something, there was some brouhaha about Master of Rahl which seemed to have been pacified with his lurkiness. I wish to point my finger at him until he comes back with a jewel of a post that makes me think, my god, he's probably the Mayor of Townytowne.

Finally: did it look certain that Martin was going to be lynched before he fingered Dedalus.

...As The Godfather, I mean? I'm just thinking about timing, here.
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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby Sungura » Thu Jul 02, 2009 11:00 pm UTC

I am willing to take another look at dedalus, he just strikes me as townie and I don't know why. Of course, I could be reading his posts through rose-colored-glasses because I decided day 1 he was town. Some people I get really strong feelings on just don't change...and they usually aren't wrong so I'm usually reluctant to change them. But I agree his posts of late seem to be on the scum side so I feel an analysis is needed. I hope to do one tonight.
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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby Master_Rahl22 » Fri Jul 03, 2009 2:12 am UTC

I apologize for my absence. I used to do most of my reading for mafia on lunch breaks at work, and the company blocks this forum. I could use wifi from a nearby hotel, but apparently it's been down for quite a while and I haven't had time in the evenings to read. I'm way behind and will try to catch up and post some thoughts in the next day or so.
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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby Gojoe » Fri Jul 03, 2009 4:04 am UTC

Vote Count

Silknor- 1(Entropy)
Rakysh- 3 (dedalus, az001, korora)
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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby Sungura » Fri Jul 03, 2009 12:57 pm UTC

I don't have time to write up a huge post for the next few days, and I don't think I'll be getting around how Rakysh has been acting, to be honest. Therefore I may as well
vote: rakysh
If you want the reasons, look back at my detailed analysis posted right at the end of day 3.
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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby dedalus » Fri Jul 03, 2009 2:18 pm UTC

Rakysh, to give you something to defend against: http://echochamber.me/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=39499&start=720#p1649625. Those are the points Amy made. I don't think there's that much point reposting, as it's two pages previous and fairly lengthy.
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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby Dromtry » Fri Jul 03, 2009 4:12 pm UTC

If you aren't the first or second person to vote, unless something major between the first post(s) and yours, your vote can never really have much content, since a late(r) vote is essentially just an agreement with earlier posts. I say this, because it's a bitch when you put like the fourth or fifth vote in a chain, and then the next day (or same day) someone calls you out for not having much content in your post. Even if you agree with people who appear to be pro-town, if not the most pro-town people in the game, people will still say you're going with the flow.

If you aren't the first you're essentially just part of the bandwagon, even if the bandwagon makes sense. Look at D1 of Texas Hold 'Em, a Mason power role was lynched on page 2, because they made a risky move and killed a town power role. Everyone who voted to lynch came under scrutiny, barring the fact that the player had just killed an awesome power role.

Saying that, I'm going to note that Rak has had two pages and over a week IRL to respond to Amy's original post of accusation, in which time he's posted seven times, two of which address the post in a minor light, one of those two he says he's sure Amy is scum (what better way to stop people calling you scum then to say everyone calling you scum is scum?).

So, Vote: Rakysh
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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby Rakysh » Fri Jul 03, 2009 5:26 pm UTC

Blech... I know I've done an awful job this game. The ironic thing is that I'm actually town. ATM I'd prefer to move on.

Dromtry, I think you're slightly looking for scumminess in my posts. Bollocks do I say I'm sure Sungura is scum. I said I've got my eye on her. I apologise my defences have been "in a minor light" (?) but if I right more I'll get slammed for overdefending. Lynch me, sure, but do it for actual reasons. It's not like there aren't enough already.

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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby dedalus » Sat Jul 04, 2009 2:55 am UTC

Rakysh, it's not overdefending if you're responding to accusations. Look at the amount I've put up so far and no-ones really slammed me for it. It's a fairly poor excuse...
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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby Sungura » Sat Jul 04, 2009 2:57 am UTC

Yeah, it's over-defending if you did what MoA did day one. I had like one little paragraph and he wrote a whole essay and went off the deep end.
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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby Rakysh » Sat Jul 04, 2009 5:58 am UTC

There isn't a whole lot to say. You're right, really. I have been lurking. But I'm not scum.

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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby VectorZero » Sat Jul 04, 2009 9:05 am UTC

As previously promised, a review of b.i.o's posts

First stuck up for Az voting early. Spoke out against the LaL/Mega(me) bandwagon a few times. Supported Rahl voting early. Agreed with korora's suspicion of Amy's analysis-lite D1, then when the analysis arrived said it was short on content and warned against bandwagoning on its arguments, as he has "previously been on the end of an Amy-analysis-inspired bandagon". Voted MR22 for lurking! to "stop the bandwagon and get discussion going." Silknor calls him on this, bio clarifies:
Spoiler:
b.i.o wrote:
Silknor wrote:So without much of a reason to vote for MR22, it seems your main goal is simply defending MoA.

I suspect that if MoA is anti-town, you'll turn out the same.

FoS: b.i.o

My goal is preventing a hasty bandwagon. In my experience, the best way to do that is to get a few votes on someone else, because then there isn't a clear choice and people are more likely to think before they act.

This thing with MoA feels almost like an exact repeat of Nickrole 2, day 2.


then
b.i.o wrote:
Master_Rahl22 wrote:The problem with your reasoning about voting for me is that a vote says "I want to lynch this person."

You voted for MartinW on your first actual post in this game. You thought that was a good time to lynch him?

Silknor wrote:I might give more credit to that argument if there wasn't already 3 votes on brook when you posted (and 1 was an unvote from MoA).

I quite honestly missed that. A lot had happened since my last post and as I read through I got pretty concerned about the MoA bandwagon, especially as I saw some very real, very glaring parallels to older games. I responded primarily to posts farther up the page and all but ignored the last few. Although looking back, I'm really not any happier about what, at that point, looked to be the start of another bandwagon for brook there either.

b.i.o wrote:So I just took a look back at the votes that have been made on MoA. The two names that stuck out at me were Vieto and dromtry. Both voted without doing anything other than agreeing with previously made arguments and both have since said nothing at all or almost nothing. They're not the only ones doing this--just the most obvious.

This disturbs me, because it's not like this has been a simple bandwagon. There are a significant number of people voting for Brook and they've given reasons for not voting for MoA, but most of the people voting for MoA haven't given reasons for keeping their vote where it is. This is lazy. I don't care if it's day 1 or not: the game starts on day 1, and day 1 play matters in the long run.

Good point, especially since MoA was town and Brook was scum. I'm not quite clear why he singled out Vieto and dromty though: could you clarify in what way they were the "most obvious"?

b.i.o wrote:
Sungura wrote:I was convinced yesterday that MoA or BXM or possibly both were mafia. Since MoA is town, by my logic then BXM is mafia. He continually made statements that sounded scummy yesterday and he also posted a few hole-y logics.

His posts yesterday got WIFOM-y as hell, yes, but your logic is not sound. You're saying: A or B. Not A. B. The problem is that you can't verify that 'A or B' is actually true. Your analysis day 1 helped get one bandwagon going. Lets not start another one yet.

Now were I to vote right now, I'd vote for Brook, but NOT because of comparisons between him and MoA. Brook was toying with us later day 1 and I see no reason for a townie to be doing that. Unfortunately, this feels like a bandwagon already, so I'm going to hold off voting for now.

Points out a flaw in Amy's logic, doesn't vote for the scummy BXM to "avoid a bandwagon" even though he's his top suspect apparently.

Spoke again against bandwagoning.

His next two posts are the confrontation with amy:
Spoiler:
b.i.o wrote:
Sungura wrote:The last like...oh...five? forum games I've played people have said I've played more aggressive or different or something. I dunno what is changed really except I do more follow through on analysis.

You latch on to people and don't let go. There was *plenty* of time to discuss Brook vs MoA after you voted and before the deadline was reached yesterday, but you didn't come back and discuss things at all.

I've played games with you recently, and despite your protestations to the contrary, I really haven't found you all that scummy in any of them. This game is different. I found your behavior early day 1 strange, and looking back I find your lack of comments later day 1 telling.

Sungura wrote:But, eh, should I? I mean, if I come up with stuff, are you just going to blame more on me if he gets lynched? I find it odd you question my analysis accuse me of bandwagon leading and then ask for more analysis. :?

He has a problem with your analysis not because you were analyzing but because you analyzed once and left that as essentially all you said for the entire day. Stop evading.

In fact, I find that last little comment enough to push me over the edge.
vote: Sungura
I'm glad korora's being more diligent than I am in this.

And really, there's a difference between saying you didn't have time to make a post and saying you didn't log in. One is a true statement, one is false.
b.i.o wrote:
Sungura wrote:I NEVER SAID I DID NOT LOG IN.

C'mon, don't missquote me. If you are going to make a case, do so on true grounds not by claiming I said stuff I didn't.

You said you 'didn't get on'. I certainly interpreted that as meaning you didn't log in.

Honestly, I'm just getting sick of analyzing because in every freakin' game when I do I just get killed anyway or people get ticked at me. It's not worth it. I can tell when I'm getting done and fed up with games, and this is one.

This attitude really annoys me. We're playing a game of mafia. I am inherently distrustful of everyone here. Korora and I were both suspicious of you before you posted analysis yesterday.

I guess I really don't know how to say this any more nicely...but...deal with it. You giving up on a game because you have two people somewhat suspicious of you and one voting for you. There are twenty people in this game.

and if you want I will even vote myself.

Absolutely not. Voting for themself is about the worst thing a townie getting voted for can do, because not only do you make it easier to get lynched, you also deprive us of information about the people voting for you.

Honestly though, why do you think people don't really analyze and then games die? Because those who do are killed early on as they are blamed for every bad lynch that happens. That is as much as a problem as people being lurky.

You're asking this question and you're giving up with a single vote on you? As I said easier in this post, Korora and I were suspicious of you before your analysis.

You're complaining about lurking? Look at yourself. After voting for MoA you made a grand total of three posts day 1. The first was a defense of your vote/suspicions. The second was in response to MoA's asking if you were town. And the third was explaining to Dromtry what your name is. There were *five* days between your vote and the end of D1, and it's not like nothing else happened in the intervening time. I don't care how good your day 1 analysis is, the fact remains that it was done on day 1, and I don't care who you are (or how accurate your suspicions were in PB), it's damned hard to get a fully accurate read of people halfway through day 1 and I do not trust anyone here to do it with anything even approaching consistency.

I'll do some heavier analysis later today when I'm not at work.


Summary: bio felt amy had analysed MoA early D1 then lurked a bit despite posting in other threads, amy felt she was being targeted for leading the MoA bandwagon.

This is bio's analysis of Amy. Summary:
b.i.o wrote:I find your play day 2 deceptive and obnoxious. You keep ignoring the parts of posts you find it convenient to ignore.


bio then got annoyed/angry with Amy, said she was ignoring his analysis, but thought Brook was town despite acting very scummy:
Spoiler:
b.i.o wrote:I am voting for Amy. Not Brook.

unvote

And now I'm not voting for anyone.

Sungura, cut the condescending shit out. Now. Before I was annoyed, and yes, that may have colored my vote a bit. Now I'm actively angry. If you don't want me to post my suspicions repeatedly don't ignore me the first two times.


une see wrote:bio, what do you think about Brook? I know you think Amy is really really suspicious, but could you like...give an opinion on the primary lynch candidate for today? I mean, do you think he's suspicious at all?

He's scummy as hell and has been doing tons of WIFOMing, yes, but at this point I think he's town. If we had a jester in this game I'd peg him for it, but I can't see him being this idiotic as scum. I think focusing so much on targets identified D1 (MoA and now Brook) is a huge, huge mistake, and I think that way too many people in this game are being way too lazy for town to win unless something big changes.

I don't care whether or not people agree with me, but I do care that people aren't forming their own opinions. This day has been pathetic.

Then rants against people lurking and bandwagoning on BXM without analysis, calls out BXM for rolling over and dying, reiterates he thinks BXM is town, votes vieto for lurking:
Spoiler:
b.i.o wrote:
Brooklynxman wrote:Hey in my defense, Im 99.9% sure I'm gonna die, so bugger off. If I might live, then I'll say something. Until then, why bother trying? I'm going to be dead, and I'm being barreled over, I say my bandwagon speaks for itself, when I show up town, look at it for a list of potential scum suspects.

Look yourself--you're not dead yet. And if you are town you have a way different perspective on all of this than the rest of us. Dying isn't equivalent to losing, so why not try to help us win?

existential_elevator wrote:...If you call "doing nothing" going through the entire backlog of this game and picking out choice cuts of Brookyln quotes.

My apologies. I went through posts quickly and missed the spoiler in yours. It was a good post, but I'd like to see more back and forth.

VectorZero wrote:I don't really see why you're surprised: there was an obvious candidate for a lynch

So? You're going to get nowhere in this game if all you consider are the most obvious candidates.

there hasn't been enough to analyse beyond BXM then you and Amy.

What, did day 1 disappear down a hole?

As I said before, we're better off getting on with the inevitable lynch before people lose interest because there's simply no reason for scum to stick their heads up today. It's an unfortunate situation.

Then lets try to GIVE them a reason rather than giving them a free pass through today.

vote: vieto
I marked you yesterday. You've said nothing today. And you've posted in other games in the meantime.

My gut feeling is telling me Brook is town right now.


Day 3, first posted his posting analysis. Summary was that MR22, kipper and martin were most likely to be scum. 50:50 strike rate on the two deceased and bio has already voted for MR22 on day 1. He then voted kipper with MR22 second choice. Not such a good choice as it turned out. Then unvoted kipper and voted MR22 when kipper left the game. After martin claimed cop, bio threw his voice in the "probably scum, shouldnt lynch yet" camp (as did I.) FoS'd nikc for his "why hasn't all the mafia bandwagoned martin" post but doesnt vote due to him just replacing kells. Calls out lurkers: MR22 is among them. Asked amy why she wasn't advocating a lynch of others on her scum list.

Bandwagons rakysh to avoid the martin lynch since MR22 is not around or being lynched. Single post so far D4 is a voting summary without analysis.

Impression: Has been fairly talkative throughout the game. Not scum with Amy or MR22, as he has consistently gone after both since D1. I toyed with the idea of him being cop, but this seems unlikely given he has not changed tack since D1: unless his cop is a daycop his opinion re Amy and MR22 are gut alone. Agreed with korora a lot. Has been a little hypocritical re lynching lurkers, having voted for both MR22 and kipper at various stages yet spoke out against lynching Mega/me. If it had been anyone else, I'd have thought he was protecting a scumbuddy; I realise this isn't evidence for other players. Very vocal in his support of BXM despite his apparently obvious scumminess. Angry with generalised lurkiness and apathy day 2. Interesting that of the three people he singles out day 3, he gets their alignment wrong (kipper vs martin.) Has not provided much discussion on players other than Amy and MR22.

Classify: Somewhat scummy for supporting BXM and martin.
Van wrote:Fireballs don't lie.

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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby dedalus » Sat Jul 04, 2009 11:59 am UTC

Ok, lets see if I can get an Az analysis done:
Spoiler:
The back and forth about the traitor has left me thinking that either Silky or Marten are scum (if not both, they could be distancing...)

As I'm 50-50 on them right now
Vote: Martin
FoS: Silknor

Well, of the two of them he picks the one that IS scum to make a vote, however I think i'm reading waaay too much into it if I say he's distancing from Martin right now. Certainly doesn't preclude him being scum.
Both of you have good points, but the traitor knows that (s)he'll be killed if outed. (S)He also knows that (s)he needs to try to out the mafia without naming names. There isn't really all that much more to talk about. The idea of townies acting scummy to mask the traitor is horrible, as the whole point of the game is to try lynch the people that seem the most scummy. In fact, it's even worse, because the mafia know who among the people acting scummy are supposed to be on their team. The only thing townies acting like traitors will do is hide the traitor from the town.

I always people who argue back and forth. I either think that one person is trying to subvert the town, or it is two scum trying to distance themselves.

This is probably the longest post that he's made all game, and it's effectively shutting down discussion. Of course, Martin's suggestion here IS terrible of course, but I don't like his sentiment that townies never argue; it doesn't make any sense.

Next four posts are fairly contentless
I'm kind of getting sick of Mega's lurking myself. Perhaps a day one lynch will wake her up.

For the good of us all:
Vote: Mega

Yes the lurker lynch is lazy. I don't care. I'm tired.

Well, both BXM and Martin were on that bandwagon, but it doesn't necessarily mean that it's all scummy. Making judgements of peoples alignment based on their LaL bandwagoning isn't the best idea, as there's plenty of argument for and against the strategy. The meta-excuse doesn't make me very happy though...
Korora just pinged for me. I have no idea why. I have regretted not listening to myself in the past.

Vote: Korora

Another vote placed with little to no reason behind. Now, I know, Az does this, but is it normally to this level (honestly asking the question here, I don't have THAT much experience playing with him)?

Next post is contentless
BIO actually stood out to me as being anti-town the most right before MoA went and made himself the target for day one.

I didn't like how he insisted on getting Amy's analysis without doing any himself. Like he was looking for someone to follow.
Vote: MoA

HoS BIO

Well we don't yet know whether Bio is scum, but if Az turns out scum I'd be looking fairly hard at him; Fos'ing mafia whilst following a bandwagon on a townie is a common tactic.

Honestly, upon rereading I think there was a lot of bandwagoning on MoA simply due to the fact that he'd put the no-lie question to Amy and then some respectable names had voted him for overdefending. It was a very easy bandwagon for scum to take (I will draw the comparison to our two known scum who were on that bandwagon), so the fact that Az claims MoA made himself the target for D1 makes me think that he's quite prepared to bandwagon rather then do some reading of his own. This post stands out as somewhat suss to me.
Your dissension with the town is clearly disloyalty to the town.

Quick lynch him!

Quite clearly a joke, but could be read to have undertones either way (it was made about Bio claiming that MoA felt like a repeat of Nickrole 2 D2). Just putting it up as it has SOME relation to the analysis.
Fail all 'round.

Go us. If this were the invitational I'd be laughing. Out loud even.

Amy pointed it out at the time, and I'm quite prepared to say there speaks a bit of scum saying 'oh what a bad night' or praising the doctor etc etc. Once again, could be taken either way.
Azrael001 wrote:
Sungura wrote:Erm...the way the "Go us" is makes him sound mafia to me. The town didn't fail, we had legit concerns of MoA and if anything the waters are now much less muddy. The mafia is what really had fail. And the town didn't fall all 'round because there is a mafia supporter dead, even if the scum took him out for us, it's still not a fail.
I was talking about everyone who is playing. We all failed. MoA cracked under the pressure that we put him under. Brook is the next logical choice, as he was close to tied with MoA. I want to reread before I vote though.

Well, I'm pretty sure that everyone in the game knew that we were going to lynch Brook D2. So, jumping on the easy bus early could be read as a scumtell, but it mightn't be.
I think that most of the start of the day will be people saying: I'm going to wait and see what else comes up, then vote Brook. This seems like a waste of time. I'm not sure that people will be able to easily concentrate on other people's posts unless we either completely ignore Brook, or we lynch him now.

I'm for the latter.

Vote: Brook

Again, easy bus. These last two posts really kind of ring to me the idea that he knows Brook is scum and dying today.
I think that almost all of the arguments against Amy are poor right now. In fact they're bad enough to make me reconsider my own position against her. That is, I never got around to posting my suspicions yesterday, so while it looks like I'm jumping on the band wagon, my FoS on Amy is actually about a day old.

Er, what? So... he says that he thought Amy was scum, but because the arguments against her are so poor he's reconsidering... But he's going to bring it up anyway.
Azrael001 wrote:
une see wrote:I feel like Martin's trying too hard to seem pro-town here. He says he might do some analysis later, but then doesn't, which I find quite strange coming from Martin. Then, the last paragraph: speculates on what the mafia might do, which I've always considered a scumtell. Insinuates that early voters might be mafia, which I think is just an oblique way to make himself seem pro-town, since directly above it, he says to avoid jumping on the bandwagon, because "discussion is always helpful to the town." That phrase just strikes me as very...fake-town/town-pretending.
I noticed this quote too, I didn't like it then, but I forgot to mention it...


Whilst I'm not going to turn around and claim that he's distancing because he jumped on suspicion of a scum-mate, I think that post strikes me as a bit 'me-tooish'; trying to pretend to be town and do good analysis without actually doing it.
Honestly, by the defeated way that Brook has been playing, I believe him. It doesn't fit the pattern of caught scum, but rather innocent townie. I'm afraid that I might start to blur games together right now, but I think that we are wasting another day.

Unvote

Vote: Amy

I don't like it, but you do seem off right now. In fact, a lot of people seem more ornery than usual.

An odd turn of events that he jumps off Brook, but considering that he claimed before the arguments against Amy were really bad I'm a bit suspicious he'd suddenly jump off scum and onto her, especially considering the reason why he voted Brook in the first place was to clear the water in that regard. Overall, his D2 play is fairly fishy IRG to BXM.
That's true. I did read it. I'm sorry for the vote hopping, I was doing it in SMCM as well. I a just having a harder time getting reads on people lately. I just don't have that conviction like I used to...

It's a meta excuse, and as such I'll believe it, but it still hits me that he's shrugging off what most people consider as scumtells just like this.
With the weekend coming up I might get a chance to do a reread and do some analysis of my own (we're renovating the basement, not fun), in the meantime I'm going to

Vote Martin

as I was suspicious of him day one, and the evidence against him by the last three analysis's of him are pretty damning.

Jumps on the analysis posted against Martin, can be explained as scum or town.
I guess I've got no choice but to

Unvote

Though if the hitman were the traitor, it would be highly amusing.

Yeah ok, again could go either way. At the time there was some discussion about the veracity of Martin's claim, so the 'I guess I've got no choice but to' part doesn't spring that well, but I'm probably reading too much into it.

Azrael001 wrote:
Rakysh wrote:I think I'm just getting better at thinking about my posts and NOT being ridiculously scummy.
This quote here proves that you're scum.

Vote: Rakysh

I don't actually think that Rak is scummy, which is odd. Une seems a little hostile towards me, though I suppose my play has warranted that, so I can't really complain.

I too do not trust Martin's cop claim.

E_E has pinged a bit recently, but I don't have any real reason to for this.

I trust Amy.

I don't have much opinion on anyone else right now.

Alright so... he joke votes Rakysh whilst saying that he doesn't think Rak is scummy... Weird. Admits to being fairly scummy but dismisses it. It's in the last three lines that ping me a bit though. His last post he claimed that he had no choice to unvote, however now that a lot of people are saying that Martin isn't the cop he jumps onto agreeing with that. Claims that E_E pinged him a bit, and then says that he now trusts someone whom he voted for D2. D2 there was a fair amount of opinion that Amy might've been scum. D3 there wasn't, and now he trusts her. It pings me a LOT that he'd switch his opinion on so little so fast.

He then unvotes the joke vote.
Azrael001 wrote:
existential_elevator wrote:Az is vote-hopping mainly, and then registering suspicions with little evidence
The Rakysh vote was a joke, hence the quick unvote. I unvoted Martin after his cop claim, which was pretty reasonable I think. That's it for now.

Excuses himself again for vote-hopping, but neglects to mention the fact that he'd unvoted someone who next post he'd claimed to not believe.
Azrael001 wrote:I have just realized what the source of my deja-vu was. Marin is reminding me of Nebuduck from the ages of myth. I also think that this situation is too distracting for people get proper reads on anyone else, discussion always seems to return to Martin.

I also think that the person that Martin investigated (dedalus?) is likely to be the Godfather (if Martin is indeed scum). This way, if the real cop checks on him, he'll turn up town, and dedalus' has been acting increasingly scummy recently.

Vote: Martin

Ninja'd by Une a bunch and Korora.

And now Martin.

Draws parallels to another game where this tactic occurred. There is somewhat of a parallel there, but he's completely neglected to consider the option that Martin simply gave an innocent verdict to a townie to incriminate them upon his death and because it makes him look more townie. Someone without a OMGUS bias should take a look at this and think about it however.
I still think that Dedalus is the Godfather. A false claiming cop, "confirming" someone innocent will not be trusted, so the real cop is likely to check the "confirmed" townie. Picking the only scum that turns up innocent would be something that I think would be done to create confusion.

Again, he's jumped on this theory, this time claiming that the real cop will check the townie without thinking that simply tying two people together can often be enough for the lynch of the second.
While I should have been working, I thought of another highly plausible possibility (assuming that Martin is lying). If he were the mafia supporter, and he had hardly any time to post, about the best thing he could do for the scum is exactly what he did.

He's divided the (active) players, and if there was another cop claim, he would have sacrificed the weakest scum role, for the most powerful town one.

We won't know until we lynch him, but I would be willing to bet a lot of money that one of the two scenarioes that I presented is true.

Unvote

We've got to operate under the assumption that Martin is telling the truth today. The extra investigation will be telling, even if Martin is lying. If the doctor protects him, then the hitman has got to use his one bullet to get him, and the chance that the hitman will use that bullet is worth keeping him alive. (The doctor also protects from the roleblocker, so his investigation (if it exists) will go through.

So he's decided that Martin could be supporter, however we should assume that Martin is telling the truth. Doesn't quite add up.

That is a very WIFOMy argument, though it is entirely possible, and if he's only a supporter, I'd be apt to believe that he just picked your name out of a hat. Should he turn out to more than that though...

In any case, while there are very excellent reasons to lynch Martin today, I think that if we wait for tomorrow, we'll be in a better position to make a good decision.

I wouldn't be opposed to a dedalus lynch today, but I think that there is likely a better target, I just can't see past Martin and dedalus (hence my earlier (and continued) desire to lynch Martin).

He wants to lynch the person he unvoted just before, whom he makes the argument AGAINST lynching. He also distances himself from lynching me, saying that 'there might be a better target but I can't see past them'. It strikes me as a subtle push for a lynch of myself without making much argument for it.

If we leave Martin alive today, we are basically forcing the Mafia to tip their hand. They cannot leave him alive, and the only guaranteed way that they will kill him is by using the hitman kill. This is good. They have to assume (especially if dedalus actually is the godfather) that he is the traitor, if he is scum, or they have to believe that he is telling the truth as there have been no counter claims. Only if Martin returns with a guilty result tomorrow will we have any question as to what to do...

So he thinks that now if Martin was the traitor I'd still be the godfather. He's making a lot of bad speculation here and it's all centred about me. The problem with me pushing this as evidence is that no-one else is sure that I'm town, but the point remains he's making a lot of theories, each one coming back to me being scum, without considering any of the equally if not more plausible ideas that I could be town. In the position where scum claims cop and says someone else is innocent, there are so many layers of WIFOM that can be read into it that it's probably better to instead judge the person based on their own text rather then reading guilt/innocence by association. Az hasn't done this; instead he's chosen to push specifically for me and Martin being associated, which makes me think that he knew Martin would turn out scum and was going to be lynched within the next few days, and wanted to use that to bring a lynch against an innocent.

I suppose there is a chance that Martin could be the hitman, but I would think that he would... try to make sure that he survives the day that it looks like he might be lynched so that he can use his kill...

Sigh.

Azrael001 wrote:
une see wrote:Az: hasn't he been trying to survive till night? He claimed cop, didn't he? korora, for one, seems to think anyone who claims cop should automatically be let off the hook for the day...My vote stays, in case I didn't make this clear before. I see no good coming from letting Martin live.
Yeah, the ellipsis were supposed to show that I realized what I was saying as I said it, but as there is no tone of voice in text, (unless one has better writing skills than I do) my point failed to go through.

Ok, so right now this could be read as him getting sick of speculation, or him not liking Amy's speculation which gave a very good reason for lynching Martin before the night. The sigh at the end of the first quote pings me for reasons that I can't quite describe... It just feels like he's given up on speculation being able to achieve his aims, although we don't quite know what those aims could be.

Azrael001 wrote:
dedalus wrote:I would've thought that everyone was given the list of who is godfather etc... but yeah I could be wrong. Honestly though, if I was godfather right now I'd be massively pissed that Martin even associated me with him more then anything.
This has made me about 90% sure that dedalus is scum, if not the Godfather. See the Nebuduck game for an exact parallel.

Vote: Dedalus

Ok, that statement of mine did look scummy at first glance. However, I don't like how he just immediately parallels to another game and says 'because they did this and they were scum, in a similar case they MUST also be scum'.
Funnily enough, I'm feeling the same way about E_E as you are about Kipper. It's not as prevalent, and mostly just today, but it's a little concerning. Anyway, I'd rather see a Rak lynch than a Martin lynch today, and I'm going to be gone potentially tomorrow, so

Vote: Rakysh

So now he jumps onto the Rakysh bandwagon; I guess if we find Rakysh's alignment tomorrow we'll be much better off, but seeing as he was voting against scum, it never looks good.
I think that lynching Martin today is a mistake. In only one, out of three or four, likely scenarios is his death today more advantageous than someone else, and that's only if he is the hit man. The other, more likely cases are that he is a supporter, goon, or even telling the truth. In any of these cases the mafia will want him dead, and likely use the hit man to get him (as the doctor would pretty much have to protect him tonight).Ninja'd Damn.

Makes little sense, but seeing as we'd want him dead even IF he is a supporter or a goon, I don't like it.
My guess is that both the doctor and the Mafia guessed the same person for cop last night, based on people's reactions to Martin's claim.

Strikes me as a lesser case of 'oh my god what a bad night'.
My current opinions are as follows:

Player List:
2. dedalus - Godfather
3. une see - Is still alive (you know what that means)
4. korora - Dunno
5. Azrael001 - Obv. town
6. b.i.o - Town
8. Sungura - Super Town
9. Silknor - Lurky pants
10. Entropy - Town
11. Rakysh - Fishy
13. existential_elevator - Town
14. Nikc - Quity
15. Vector Zero - Dunno
16. Bulvox - Replaced by Felstaff? (If so too awesome to lynch regardless of alignment.)
17. cycoden - Town
18. Vieto - Dunno
21. Master_Rahl22 - Fishy lurker
22. Dromtry - Dunno

Most of this is from memory, so forgive me if there are some glaring errors. Anyway, we've got the following scum left.

1Godfather
1 Shot Hitman
1 Roleblocker
1 Goon
1 Mafia Supporter

I think that we should lynch Dedalus today, so

Vote: Dedalus

In other news, I almost want to get killed, just so that I can read the spoilers. This has been one of the most interesting games for me in a while.

So he's been pushing the 'Dedalus is Godfather' wagon pretty far even though the logic was shoddy to begin with. And then votes me simply because he thinks that I am godfather. He's pushing a point, though I feel like at the time I'd given some fairly good defence, and that hits me as scum unwilling to fold on an idea.

Next three posts are contentless
Why thank you. I'll probably end up voting Rak as well, but only because I don't think that very many people will follow me down my baseless path of accusation.

So he's quite content to jump onto the Rakysh bandwagon as well.....
It's been too long since anyone has posted. As I am also suspicious of Rak, and the game needs to get going again

Unvote

Vote: Rak

Jumps on the Rakysh bandwagon to get the game moving again...

Phew, that was long. Anyway, he strikes me as voting for very little reason, and not backing up his votes with good reason (yeah, that's typical Az). However, his willingness to bandwagon, and the fact that he's jumped onto every single bandwagon in existence pretty much, except for the D1 wagon on brook, AND the fact that he ended up jumping off of Brook late D2 and Martin D3, all strike me as fairly scummy. I'm also not liking the fact that he's been constantly pushing the idea that I must be scumbuddied with Martin, although he doesn't much consider the other possible options. There are a lot of things that are so in your face that I'm kind of surprised scum would be THAT ballsy, but Az is quite a different player to most.

Right now however, I'd be very surprised that both Az and Rakysh are scum, as Az pushed D3 to get a wagon on Rakysh instead of Martin, thus if I claim that Az is scum I'd also be thinking he was trying to prevent Martin being lynched D3. As such, I'm going to:

unvote

vote: Azrael001

The game's gone on too long for me to be pussyfooting around and trying to consider who is what, and I can always unvote if I think that Rakysh looks scummier again. I'd really like to see other people's comments on my dissection of Az, it's probably somewhat biased during D3 as a lot of Az's posts were against me.
doogly wrote:Oh yea, obviously they wouldn't know Griffiths from Sakurai if I were throwing them at them.

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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby Rakysh » Sat Jul 04, 2009 12:23 pm UTC

dedalus wrote:
I think that lynching Martin today is a mistake. In only one, out of three or four, likely scenarios is his death today more advantageous than someone else, and that's only if he is the hit man. The other, more likely cases are that he is a supporter, goon, or even telling the truth. In any of these cases the mafia will want him dead, and likely use the hit man to get him (as the doctor would pretty much have to protect him tonight).Ninja'd Damn.

Makes little sense, but seeing as we'd want him dead even IF he is a supporter or a goon, I don't like it.


Could you clear this up for me? Az seems to be saying the scum would want him dead, but then you say WE would want him dead.

Interesting analysis. I think Az may very well be working off the assumption you are scum and then quote hunting, but that doesn't preclude you being mafia. Also, the tone throughout was one of mild scumminess, but then you vote him over me. Even I think I'm really quite scummy atm. Definitely more scummy that Az has been. What also makes me cautious is that you're doing analysis for someone who clearly thinks you're scum. I know that when I've been voted for when I don't think I've been that scummy, I assume the worst of the person accusing me. Just think that might be tainting your ideas.

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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby dedalus » Sat Jul 04, 2009 12:41 pm UTC

Rakysh wrote:
dedalus wrote:
I think that lynching Martin today is a mistake. In only one, out of three or four, likely scenarios is his death today more advantageous than someone else, and that's only if he is the hit man. The other, more likely cases are that he is a supporter, goon, or even telling the truth. In any of these cases the mafia will want him dead, and likely use the hit man to get him (as the doctor would pretty much have to protect him tonight).Ninja'd Damn.

Makes little sense, but seeing as we'd want him dead even IF he is a supporter or a goon, I don't like it.


Could you clear this up for me? Az seems to be saying the scum would want him dead, but then you say WE would want him dead.

Well Az is making a case against voting Martin on the basis that he could be a supporter or goon, but even if he is a supporter or goon we would still want to get rid of him. I don't think anyone thought badly of the death of Martin simply because we hadn't killed the godfather or hitman.

Interesting analysis. I think Az may very well be working off the assumption you are scum and then quote hunting, but that doesn't preclude you being mafia. Also, the tone throughout was one of mild scumminess, but then you vote him over me. Even I think I'm really quite scummy atm. Definitely more scummy that Az has been. What also makes me cautious is that you're doing analysis for someone who clearly thinks you're scum. I know that when I've been voted for when I don't think I've been that scummy, I assume the worst of the person accusing me. Just think that might be tainting your ideas.


Not sure what you meant by tone, but anyway. When I do analysis I try to keep things as unbiased as possible, though unfortunately I find it hard to do that (especially if the analysis takes a few hours, which it did, and even more so when Az was accusing me). As for tainting my ideas, I tried to prevent that taint from coming in but it's hard, hence why I'd like to hear some more input from others. And just because he's attacking me and I know that I'm town doesn't mean he can't be. But anyway, I'm more wanting to see some pressure that comes with this analysis to see what others think, and I've managed to convince myself a fair amount.
doogly wrote:Oh yea, obviously they wouldn't know Griffiths from Sakurai if I were throwing them at them.

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Re: Mafia Round 7: Day 4!

Postby existential_elevator » Sat Jul 04, 2009 2:12 pm UTC

Here are a compilation of thoughts. I started out trying to write one thing coherently, but apparently I can't focus today. Please take or leave whatever works.

Okay. You know, I've just been sitting thinking about these things, and I guess I should go back and have a finer look over. It struck me that maybe I've been wrong to be getting a little suspicious of people who back eachother up consistently, because we might have masons, but then I checked, and we do not have them at all. So; e_e is allowed to be suspicious of people who are consistently backing eachother up.

Here's a quick compilation of Korora/dedaulus backing-up eachother. This was, and has been, one of the main reasons that the two of them have had me feeling a bit edgy. I promise I will stop barking up this tree after this list. I just want to get this stuff out there, in case its useful, and I am sorry if you guys are town. It finally clicked what had been pinging me. I think Mr. Felstaff has a point, and perhaps we are arguing with no real use. So, after this, on to other people. I mean, there are reasons this could be the case. Either - both could be scum; one could be scum buddying up to a townie; or, of course, both could be town on the same wavelength.
Day One - over Brooklyn. Really, most of Day 1 they both spend bulldogging Brook, though Korora definitely looks at other people, dedalus is more focused.
Okay, I have not ended up doing this at all, and have been horribly distracted by other things. THis game! It's so convoluted! If anyone wants to help me out, you know, holler. But I have been feeling a subtle buddying between the two. Even on this page, where they both fire analysis/rebuttals of me. And it is elsewhere, I just got really distracted finding it. I'm sure I'm not dreaming it up. But like I said, I'm going to drop it for the time being. I feel like I've focused too much there and I need to find new avenues.

Anyway. This is one of the things that pinged me about dedalus that I don't think I've brought up and that's his offer of analysis on someone who was about to die anyway, kipper. What gets me is that he's subtly pushing a lynch. Lynching an inactive player about to be killed/replaced seems like a pretty poor move for town, no? That was actually about the first point at which he hit my scumdar.
dedalus also claimed vanilla. Pretty easy thing to do in a vanilla game. This was actually just after Martin said his cop result of dedalus was town. And I guess why people have got their godfather on about dedalus. I'm uncomfortable with vanilla claims because that's so easy to try and hide behind, like brook did.

This dedalus post is interesting, and something I don't remember at all first time round. He suggests that VZ must be clean because of Brook's actions. That's. Interesting. And then Martin stumbles in and does the uber-pro-town agreement on how we should definitely talk a lot today. So I don't know what to make of it. I don't think we can write off VZ as clean because of that, of course, it's equally possible Brook was trying to throw someone else under the bus. Especially if he turns out to be traitor.

There's actually a lot of day 2 I don't remember so well. But I found Kipper defending Amy. Which I assume was the basis for a lot of people either trying to push kipper over and implying that if kipper showed scum then Amy showed scum. Interestingly, so far Kipper is 2/3 right with his suspicions [he calls up Brook, Korora and Martin].

This early korora post is interesting, and does make me wonder about Vieto and Amy.

I found this Brook/Korora exchange pretty interesting, and to be honest I wouldn't mind going over the traitor stuff from day 1 again. I do wonder if it's worth reading some of that stuff again with a view to Brook being the traitor. I don't know we'd get much, but hey. That's something to look at later.
Here Brook makes a veiled threat to post his analysis of Korora. Not sure what to make of it. Again, depends on if he's the traitor.

This is where une originally picks up on Martin. And she is super-right. She also thinks Kipper and Amy are okay. I think this is a pretty crucial post, to be honest, and to me confirms une as town. I don't think anyone had picked up on Martin prior to that, so yeah.

I also want to think a little about scum tactics. Now, I don't think that scum are doing all that well at the moment. They had a minor loss Day 1 [the supporter] and we've killed 2 mafia [inventor and goon] while all the while they've not managed a night kill. Town is doing strong. This means that mafia really can't afford another loss. This is, well, part of why I don't feel that strongly about either Az or Rak. No, they are not playing that well. But they're not really being defended, or taking a stand. I guess the other thing to look for would be people making a huge diversion, either onto them or away from them. It might tell us a little about their alignment [I'm assuming a surge onto them would indicate non-scum, and a surge away would indicate scum]. I think it's fair to say that mafia really has to be on the defensive now.

I also find that Bio analysis really interesting, and it makes me a little suspicious in that area. This was the thing I mentioned, well, in a fly-by post after I'd just finished my read-through, that I think there was something in the Bio/Amy confrontation earlier that seemed off. Still can't entirely put a finger on it. Outside of that analysis and that confrontation neither of them really struck me [though I will admit in my first read through I did get pinged a bit by Amy, but I can't really articulate why, and lately I've not been feeling it]

Also, from what I read I'm feeling more uneasy about Vieto than I was before. Does anyone want to look at him?

Aaaand I'm stopping on this partway through day 3 before this post gets any more unreadable, since I have completely lost my sights. Are people okay with me just linking back to posts, out of interest? I have to say, I don't really like going back and just quoting people out of context too much. If it involves too much clicking around for you, please say, and I'll provide a link and a quote-exert.


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