Newbie Transformers Mafia: Game Over - Fail Mod is Fail.

[_infina_]

Found what I was looking for, someone to try a bandwagon.
Unvote
FoS: tastelikecoke

I much prefer action to talk, but talking must be done. I'm sorry for using you Silknor, but by doing it, I pulled out someone more suspicious.

I actually suspected it was intended to pull out a bandwagoner because MartinW did the very same thing in a game long ago. I didn't want to mention it first though because I wouldn't want to dissuade any potential bandwagoners.

It seemed like it might work in this game, where I can try some WIFOM. If it was as successful as I hope it was, we have a fairly solid reason to continue on analyzing tastelikecoke. This also should help speed the discussion up so we can make a quicker decision on Day One. Tastelikecoke's only reason was the band-wagoning vibes, which seems very scummy to me. I also agree that this strategy I used could be seen as scummy, but if it does come back to bite me, noone important will be lost.

SDG, do you have any specific rules on roleclaiming for this game? I didn't see any, but I want to be sure.

[superdemongob]

SDG, do you have any specific rules on roleclaiming for this game? I didn't see any, but I want to be sure.

if you mean are there any restrictions then no, you may roleclaim as you wish, when you wish.

[_infina_]

I have decided to do my analysis of everyone with what I have so far.

ElectricHaze

Spoiler:

Has made five posts. Most agreeing/defending Silknor. overall neutral/slightly town feeling at this point

Silknor

Spoiler:

Six posts have been made. Helping the newbies and questioning the votes. overall neutral/slightly town feeling

Galdon

Spoiler:

Has not made any posts.

Weiyaoli

Spoiler:

Two posts. not much to analyze now, but have a feeling of town.

Aardvarki

Spoiler:

Three posts. Gave a plan (sorta) to Town. town feeling

_infina_

Spoiler:

Fourth post. Drew out something that seems scummy. Make your own conclusions.

tastelikecoke

Spoiler:

5 posts. nothing much in the way of content except for bandwagoning. Scummy

Jayshu

Spoiler:

Two posts. nothing to analyze.

Andymeo

Spoiler:

No posts

I wish I had more, but I can't finish this as well as I want to with two people not here. At least we have the one in the open. It also is possible he was trying to call the other mafia to vote.
Thanks, SDG
I am Bumblebee

[Silknor]

Now that I think about it, a mass roleclaim, while not very interesting, is probably not a bad town strategy (yes, the doc/cop give themselves away, but so do the mafia so it's eh...workable probably, would have to think about it some more)

On another note (Silkymod talking again): this is why giving vanilla townies different names is a bad thing unless you want to encourage a mass roleclaim. When there's no way to distinguish vanilla townies, then the mafia can all/mostly just claim vanilla and so a mass roleclaim isn't that effective. Here however if everyone actually roleclaimed, we'd immediately have a list of suspicion free people and a much shorter list of possible mafia than without it. May or may not be a good strategy in this particular setup, but it's rarely a fun one.

[Silknor]

EBWOP: Mod prod on Andymeo/Galdon please.

[ElectricHaze]

I think a mass role claim would be a good strat if not for the role blocker. If we mass claim the role blocker is going to have a good target for the cop/doc, and we are going to be in trouble really early if one of those two get picked off. It bears some thought though, maybe after I get some sleep in me I'll work through the scenarios if I don't get beat to it before then. I'm running on like 3 hours of sleep and I don't think I could manage to think through all the possibilities that would create right now.

[Aardvarki]

Here's my analysis of mass claim D1:

Three roles will be counter-claimed, leaving 3 confirmed town and 6 questionables. 50/50 shot of lynching correctly, if we pick wrong, it's MYLO D2. Mafia either kill one of the three confirmed town and roleblock the cop, or roleblock the doctor and kill the cop. Essentially, our power roles will be shut down completely.

If we pick correctly D1 (50%):
We'll be at 5/2 with 3 confirmed town and 4 questionables. Again, a 50/50 shot of lynching correctly. A mislynch takes us to MYLO again.

If we're right again D2, it's a town win. 3 confirmed town, 2 questionables. We can freely lynch either of the two, and if we're wrong, just pick again.

If we're wrong D2, we're at 3/2 with 2 confirmed town, 2 questionable, 1 confirmed scum. We lynch the confirmed scum, and we're at 2/1 D3, LYLO with a 50/50 shot of picking the right lynch.

If we pick wrong D1 (50%):
We'll be at 4/3 with 2 confirmed town, 4 questionable, 1 confirmed scum.

We lynch the confirmed scum, and we're at 3/2 with 1 confirmed town and 4 questionable. A single misvote D3 or D4 will lose for the town because there will be 2 scum and 3 votes to lynch.


With a mass claim, we also give up our cop and our doctor, neither of them will be able to do anything. The roleblocker will lock down the doctor and the cop will get killed before he can get any results.

If we can successfully pick out the scum 2 times out of three, we'll win though. However, each time it will be a 50/50 shot. If we screw up D1, we're in a lot of trouble. But, if we think about it as three coin flips, we need to correctly call at least two of them in order to win.

The odds of successfully guessing at least 2 coin flips out of 3 are 50% (The odds of guessing exactly 2 are 3/8, the odds of guessing all 3 are 1/8, therefore the odds of guessing 2 or more are 4/8). With lynch strategies that are better than random guessing, we stand a better than 50% chance of pulling it off.


Conclusion
With proper lynch strategies, it's absolutely doable. However, assuming the scum play as well as the town, the odds are 50/50. It's a risk, but it might work. I personally think we can come up with something better, but I'm willing to claim if everyone else is.

[Aardvarki]

EBWOP ("Edit by way of post", since you are not allowed to edit posts, this is what you do when you want to edit something you said):

Some clarification of my last post:
MYLO means "Mislynch and Lose", if the town lynches incorrectly, it is game over. It is similar to LYLO which means "Lynch or Lose", except that in MYLO, you can generally call a "No Lynch" (NL) without losing (though then the next day will be LYLO - In LYLO you need to lynch the correct person or lose, NL will also lose).
Anytime I use notation like X/Y, the X is number of townspeople and Y is number of mafia. Currently the game is at 6/3.
If anything else is confusing from my last post, please let me know.

[Aardvarki]

EBWOP x2: In all of the situations in my original analysis post, I should have said "LYLO". None of the situations that would occur would have been MYLO.

(LYLO occurs when the number of mafia is one less than the number of town (i.e. 2/1 or 3/2))
(MYLO occurs when the number of mafia is two less than the number of town (i.e. 3/1 or 4/2))

[Andymeo]

Hi all, just got modproded( completly forgot i'd signed up for this game).

I am reading and will post my first thoughts soon.

[weiyaoli]

I can't say I entirely like the method of drawing out bandwagoners but hey it worked. Like I said, I want to hear why tlc goes from I'm hesistant to vote to voting in the space fo 4 hours.... :/

I don't like the idea of a massclaim. It means both our power roles definitely die or become useless. I think it'd work better with the RB gone first. But, I'd go along with it if needed.

[_infina_]

I'll give tastelikecoke until 6pm EDT to respond, or I will make my vote. Any explanation tlc gives had better be extremely convincing to change my mind. Tlc hasn't said much to begin with in any of the posts he has made, and the bandwagon comment hasn't worked at all in tlc's favor. I figure that tlc should make a response by then, with 36 hours of questioning comments.
As to the roleclaiming, i think that mass roleclaiming is a bad idea. I did it because I wanted to, to be interpreted individually. If you feel it it wine, then ok, but who I am will be proven with time. No one should claim a power role, as it will only be harmful to the town.
Unless someone claims a power role, I will probably be the Mafia's target tonight.

[Silknor]

I feel like all that a single claim of being a specific vanilla townie did was create a lot of wine (WIFOM or Wine in Front of Me). This is not generally considered a good thing for the town. Yes, if you're lying you might get counterclaimed which gives us 50-50 chance of lynching scum today unless you're actually a town power role trying to hide. Or you're a townie who's trying to look like a town power role trying to hide to draw the NK/Roleblock, or you're a ... town power role trying to look like a townie that's trying to look like a town power role... you get the picture. This is also referring to as muddying the waters.

[ElectricHaze]

Well _infina_, I'm not sure what to think of you anymore. You started out with a great play, IMO, to draw out a bandwagoner. Now this? You said you like acting rather than waiting, but all this does is create a lot of confusion and I'm not sure I see what help we could get out of it. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt based on the bandwagoner play, but I'm keeping my eye on you.

In other news. Tastelikecoke I would really like to hear your defense. I'm not going to give it a time limit (yet), but the lack of response is definately worthy of FoS: tastelikecoke

[_infina_]

Because of my roleclaiming, I will probably be NK'd tonight.
But now my deadline has passed, so now I
Vote:tastelikecoke

[weiyaoli]

I just checked and saw that tlc hasn't been on since early yesterday morning. It's not entirely an excuse for not posting but you can't expect him to have responded if he hasn't been on.

I can't say I like you roleclaiming. I guess that you are town since noone has counterclaimed yet unless tlc is going to but although bandwagoning drawing out was unorthodox and clever, roleclaiming now is unhelpful at best. It means scum have a much higher chance of hitting either the doctor or the cop and also puts town in a huge pile of mud. Are you scum being brave to not be seems as scum, scum trying to take someone out with him, just a townie claiming D1, townie trying to draw attention away from power roles etc...

However, that said, obviously I don't think you are scum but it is likely that they will leave you alive for the wifom. I'm most suspicious of tlc but I'll wait for a defense before I upgrade my fos.

[_infina_]

I completely expect that they will kill me N1, for if I survive to D2 I will seem highly suspicious. My intention is to be the target, and every time another glass of wine is placed on the table. I am protecting the Power Roles from being killed N1.

Also, SDG, Galdon has not made any posts for a week anywhere in the forums. Could you look into this some more and take some action to help this game move along.

[Silknor]

Glasses of wine (see my earlier link) are not a good thing for the town in general. Assume your claim is true for a second: if the mafia believes it, they *won't* kill you and instead are more likely to roleblock/kill a power role than before. And then you'll look suspicious on D2, which again, if you're not lying, is a bad thing. (I feel I can say this without giving any information to the mafia because it should all be very obvious to them).

It sounds like Galdon should be replaced soon, I know there are replacements available from the signup thread.

[tastelikecoke]

FoS: _infina_

unvote: Silknor

I partake action.

[tastelikecoke]

unFoS: _infina_

Due to me being very lazy to read, I jumped to conclusions a lot. Although I feel Silknor is a roleblocker.
FoS: Galdon
damn you Galdon.

[ElectricHaze]

Uh wat? I think it would be a good idea to defend yourself, and also explain your reasoning behind things. Your bandwagoning is making it very hard to trust you and you aren't helping much with this random vote casting. Please provide reasonable explainations for your actions.

Until then I believe I will
Vote: tastelikecoke

based on what just happened here.

[tastelikecoke]

Ahhh... shit.

I'm very bad at this.
Well it can be a surprise but it can be that the 3 absent people be the mafia and this will explain the apparent townie feel on this hours. Just a theory however, but it's plausible.

[ElectricHaze]

Well so far only one person hasn't posted, and that is Galdon. Is there a reason you are voting the way you are, or reasons for casting about fingers of suspicion? Or a reason that you suspect silknor of being the role blocked. If we new more of what you were thinking it would help, but just casting votes and suspicion around looks very scummy, and at the very least is really unhelpful.

[ElectricHaze]

EBWOP: Typo. That should be read role blocker.

[tastelikecoke]

ok electricHaze. ease with my nwebieness.

Apparently Silknor is talking about roleblockers. You are also talking about the roleblockers, which makes the claim vague. It's either you are just chattering about Mafia rules and bla or in fact you're acquiring strategies, but that's as about vague as it is.



unFoS: Galdon

apparently being hasty in the first day wasn't good; I thought it was the first day you still don't know a lot of things. So today I learned about that.
I was a bit terrified on triposting, it was a counter-intuitive thing to do. I won't hesitate triposting no more.

[ElectricHaze]

... OK I think I have a better idea of what is going on here now that you've posted a few times. I'm leaning more towards you are just a total newbie at this game to the point where it's possible you may have not even observed a game even. I can believe that as a reason behind your actions. I just can't decide now whether you are playing badly as scum or town. It could go either way in my head right now. I'm still leaning towards scum for the bandwagoning though.

Anyways it's enough for me to
Unvote: tastelikecoke

and go back to
FoS: tastelikecoke

At least until I hear a little more and we get closer to a consensus. In the scenario that you are just playing really badly as town I don't want there to be a scum bandwagon for a mislynch while I sleep. And on that note, Good night all.

[tastelikecoke]

Thank you ElectricHaze.

Is the roleblocker considered Mafia, or is it an independent party? And are townies affected by roleblocking as well?

[tastelikecoke]

I let you guys analyze more.

I have not been reading for a while, since I'm totally noob and I have unmotivated mood to read, yeah.

This looks dangerous, One lynch of townie and the game is already imbalanced. Anyway, who are those people who are not a genuine newbie like me but joined the game is fill slots? I'm guessing it may be silknor and ElectricHaze. Please help us newbies so I can help you help me help you.

[Silknor]

The roleblocker is listed under Mafia not town. As it's a mafia aligned roleblocker, yes the townies are affected.

In the future, if you have a question for the mod, you should bold it so they can clearly tell you are asking them. However I'm sure they'll give the same answers I did so I'll take this one.

I'm not sure if you are acting slightly suspicious because you genuinely have no idea what's going on, or you're acting like you have no idea what's going on because you realized you were sounding suspicious.

The idea that talking about X makes you X is one of those "tells" I mentioned in my first post here. That I mentioned roleblockers for the first time as a reason that FTC (which had previously been mentioned) was bad makes your implication even weaker. I'm not saying things like "Hey guys, what's up with this roleblocker" I'm discussing how it influences specific strategies such as FTC, mass claim etc.

It's either you are just chattering about Mafia rules and bla or in fact you're acquiring strategies, but that's as about vague as it is.

I'm acquiring strategies now? Could you point out any post where it seems I'm fishing for information on how the roleblocker should act? And if I was roleblocker, it's fairly obvious how I should act, the information I'd want would be who the doctor and cop are, not what my optimal strategy is. Your argument might hold more water if you were accusing me of trying to get people to talk about the cop and doc to try to draw them out or get them to roleclaim.

And your last questions clearly don't go at all with your earlier implication that Silknor=Scum because he is roleblocker. If you believed that you wouldn't be asking if the roleblocker is Mafia.

I think it's clear that at this point I find you the most suspicious so far. Granted it could be because you're very new, but you're pretty aggressive and it took about two days for you to start giving any explanation for your actions.

To answer your ninja-question about who the non genuine newbies are, I am one of them. I don't know about the others, in part because I only recently returned and am not in most of the current games, and in part because not everyone plays their first games on these forums.

[tastelikecoke]

I wasn't very knowledgable about the word bandwagon until I read this thread. So you can see where I thought about doing this. Bandwagon effect is horrible but it frequently appears to confront me and challenge me in my life. I always remember about the movies where the villains fight the heroes. Sometimes there are a lot of heroes while the villains are few and recurring, reminds me about what if those villains are the actual heroes, but because of the fact of bandwagon effect these guys didn't gain credit and rot their hearts out. So It wasn't a smart thing to do I guess.

I guess my prediction is true, defending wouldn't help me at all since I am bad at it. The question is would me being lynched save the town or help the mafia.

[ElectricHaze]

Well since I'm still up reading this forum instead of getting a good nights sleep before work I'll try to answer your questions.

First off the roleblocker:
The roleblocker is part of the mafia and will win with them as stated in the 1st post by the mod. His ability works on the cop/doctor to prevent them from using their actions during the night. Of course the roleblocker does not know who the cop or doctor is so if he chooses a normal townie to block his ability does nothing. This is what most of the discussion has revolved around so far because it effectively counters a follow the cop strategy or a mass role claim strategy. This was all discussed earlier in the thread in more detail so I won't go into detail.

Second:
I know silknor has played several games before, and has been a mod. This is my first game I joined it after reading through the 1959 Turbo game which Silknor modded. I thought it looked fun so I joined this newbie game. As for the others I know several people in this game were also in the 1959 turbo game, but I don't know how many total games they've all played.

Third:
Yes, it would be really bad for the us if we pick wrong and lynch a townie today it will be really bad for us, which makes your quick votes and little posting of reasoning behind them look really bad, as it will only work in favor of the mafia to rush to a decision during day 1.

Ninja edit:

Well beaten to it by silk once again.

[tastelikecoke]

I am at a happier mood now.

Anyway guys, I'll watch out for Megatron. Wait,

isn't megatron already dead in T2? It became Fallen who fought with the all girl group of Shia La Beouf and Megan Fox?

I don't know, how do you provide information exactly...
My suspicions : cleared to none. Although the fellow people here are pointing to me as a mafia. That might be a bad decision. My roleblocker chatter and scummy aspects maybe proving it not so, but that's a bit of advice. Claiming a power role isn't viable, maybe, but wines too.

[tastelikecoke]

EBWOP:
I give _infina_ an internets because you're such a good customer

[_infina_]

Now I have more to think about. I shall give you the benefit of the doubt for now, and
Unvote
But I shall be keeping my eye on you.
FoS:tastelikecoke
and for what appears to be lurking I also will
FoS:Andymeo
Until someone else shows up that also appears to need to be lynched.

[jayhsu]

I am at a happier mood now.

Anyway guys, I'll watch out for Megatron. Wait,

isn't megatron already dead in T2? It became Fallen who fought with the all girl group of Shia La Beouf and Megan Fox?

I don't know, how do you provide information exactly...
My suspicions : cleared to none. Although the fellow people here are pointing to me as a mafia. That might be a bad decision. My roleblocker chatter and scummy aspects maybe proving it not so, but that's a bit of advice. Claiming a power role isn't viable, maybe, but wines too.

I think you really are just very new at this. This post is... so weird.. You realize these games are pretty much unrelated to anything that happens 'in canon,' etc?

Sigh.

[tastelikecoke]

This is the reason why I joined a newbie game so I won't unleash my newbieness.

[tastelikecoke]

anyway, I blame Silknor for that weird post.

[tastelikecoke]

And You Laugh You Lose for my depression.

[tastelikecoke]

quadruple post?

EBWOP (really the last one): So, why are you away jhaysu?

[superdemongob]

I am at a happier mood now.

Anyway guys, I'll watch out for Megatron. Wait,

isn't megatron already dead in T2? It became Fallen who fought with the all girl group of Shia La Beouf and Megan Fox?

I don't know, how do you provide information exactly...
My suspicions : cleared to none. Although the fellow people here are pointing to me as a mafia. That might be a bad decision. My roleblocker chatter and scummy aspects maybe proving it not so, but that's a bit of advice. Claiming a power role isn't viable, maybe, but wines too.

I think you really are just very new at this. This post is... so weird.. You realize these games are pretty much unrelated to anything that happens 'in canon,' etc?

Sigh.

QFT. (quote for truth. means i agree with what he says and don't want to type the whole thing again.)
Also, in Transformers 2, Megatron is not dead, merely deactivated, a prisoner of the US govt. The rest of the Decepticons manage to take a part of the all spark to him and reactivate him hence the epic battle. It is Optimus Prime who dies (killed by Megatron) but even he is reanimated thanks to the weapon thing Shea LeBeouf finds when he himself dies. All in all, its an f'd up movie, if you were to relate that to this game, you might have some troubles.