Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Mafiaballs Win

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tastelikecoke
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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby tastelikecoke » Fri Sep 10, 2010 1:16 pm UTC

Oh no, a deadline.

The votals would likely stay for 3 days, my guess, based on the severe inactivity.
Big Nose wrote:PS There is no way the Scum are going to counter-claim, not when there is only 1 Scum left.
This means the doctor claim tactic is bound to not work.
Scum can still hide without counter-claiming or claiming doctor, since there are no clear scum tells. Letting the doctor claim only lead to doctor's death.
Any other tactics besides scum tells, what?

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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby ThinkSweet » Sat Sep 11, 2010 6:15 am UTC

Hi all, sorry to interupt this game. LegoLogos is currently on his way to a yacht in the greek islands for the next 3 weeks 8) , & I'm pretty sure he won't have net access. So this is his proxy apology for forgetting to tell you guys sooner. I'm PM'd the mod, so he'll decide what to do as far as the game's concerned ... :D

Anyway, play on!
</rant>

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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby BigNose » Sat Sep 11, 2010 3:41 pm UTC

Come on.
Only 3 votes needed at deadline.
There are 3 votes on me.
Nobody is at home and we are down to 48 hours.
Let's have some discussion.
You know where my thoughts lie, but it seems that he is the only other player posting.
Adacore wrote:In all honesty, BigNose has been pinging me slightly with almost every post since the start of the game. But he always does - I was utterly convinced he was anti-town for most of Wizardry2 and he was the High Wizard. I just can't read him.

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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby <nyssa> » Sun Sep 12, 2010 3:11 am UTC

Rightio well I don't think the doctor should claim, that will only get him night-killed and not get us anywhere. Also, err, our friendly neighbourhood mod said a few days ago that CF would be mod-killed if he didn't post by the end of day, and it is almost the end of day and he still hasn't posted. However, our mod is now looking for replacements in the sign-ups thread. Maybe modkilling CF would end the game, as in he is the last scum? Remember he was the replacement for Meatyochre, who people did say was acting a bit scummy at the beginning of the game before she became inactive and asked to be replaced, but I think with all the infina nonsense going on no one really paid too much attention to that. Anyway, this is just something I noticed. Perhaps the people who thought Meaty was a bit scummy (iirc phlip and Misnomer) could say why, and maybe we could get some discussion in? I won't unvote till there is discussion though, because I'd still rather *a* lynch for information than no lynch due to a deadline, no lynch won't gain us any information, I don't think.

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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby Misnomer » Sun Sep 12, 2010 12:31 pm UTC

Right, lets see If I can come up with some more content...

First off, I don't think that the time is right yet for a doctor claim. As scum won't falseclaim, I'm not sure we have much to gain from a doctor claim atm (sure, it increases our odds of a random lynch being succesful, but we're not making a random lynch). When we approach lylo, a doctor claim might be useful, but for now it's probably best for the doctor to keep quiet. HOWEVER, if they're about to be lynched, they must claim.

Now, moving on...
<nyssa> wrote:Also, err, our friendly neighbourhood mod said a few days ago that CF would be mod-killed if he didn't post by the end of day, and it is almost the end of day and he still hasn't posted. However, our mod is now looking for replacements in the sign-ups thread. Maybe modkilling CF would end the game, as in he is the last scum? Remember he was the replacement for Meatyochre, who people did say was acting a bit scummy at the beginning of the game before she became inactive and asked to be replaced, but I think with all the infina nonsense going on no one really paid too much attention to that. Anyway, this is just something I noticed. Perhaps the people who thought Meaty was a bit scummy (iirc phlip and Misnomer) could say why, and maybe we could get some discussion in?

I've also been wondering what to make of the new replacement list. It appears to have been put up after we were informed about Legologos not having internet access. Which could imply that LL (and blackfuse before him) was the godfather, and that Ug is looking for replacements because he doesn't want to end the game with a modkill. Of course, there are perils in trying to second-guess the Mod's actions like this (he could, for example, have simply decided that two modkills might be more than this game could cope with) - not to mention that it's not really in the spirit of the game. But as we're going to be clutching at straws anyway in the evnt BN turns up town...

Is Legologos being replaced, and will he be mod-killed at the end of the day if no replacement is found?

As for why I found Meaty slightly scummy, that was because Meaty pushed infina up to hammer-1, allowing infina to lynch himself and end the day early.

Finally, one thing that is unnerving me somewhat is that TLC has been fairly consistently attacking BN, but hasn't cast a vote. If BN turns out town and the game continues, this could be something to look into.
moody7277 wrote:The role of SDK in this game will be played by Misnomer. [/soapopera]

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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby phlip » Sun Sep 12, 2010 1:28 pm UTC

<nyssa> wrote:Perhaps the people who thought Meaty was a bit scummy (iirc phlip and Misnomer) could say why

Looking back at my analysis, it was based mostly off a couple of instances of meaty seeming to push for haste when it wasn't necessary... but both in very minor cases, and both in cases where the action they were pushing for was good for town (miller claiming, lynching infina). Possibly enough to warrant keeping an eye on, but not much more than that.

Ultimately, if they're going to be modkilled anyway, it's probably not worth worrying about... if the scum is going to be modkilled then the game's already over, so we should focus on the people who are still playing until/unless some replacements show up.

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enum ಠ_ಠ {°□°╰=1, °Д°╰, ಠ益ಠ╰};
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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby <nyssa> » Sun Sep 12, 2010 1:43 pm UTC

Well in that case, seeing as the only people posting are the people already voting for BigNose + tlc + BigNose, and there's less than a day left till the deadline, I say leave it. Just leave it. I won't be near the internet again till after the deadline has passed and even if I was, I can't see enough discussion for people to be sure about lynching someone happening. Let's forget about providing content when there isn't any to provide and just lynch BigNose and then decide what to do tomorrow based on that and any modkills that happen. At this point I'm pretty hopeful that either BigNose or someone who is going to be modkilled is scum, so this game can end. It started off so fun, and now its like a ghost town.

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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby BigNose » Sun Sep 12, 2010 3:52 pm UTC

I've got bad news for you lot/few.
Given the volume of reponses throughout this game, I am now going to be lynched, due NOT to inactivity on my part, but inactivity on the part of everyone else.

For what it is worth, I am claiming.

Yes I am the Doctor.
If I going to be lynched, then I might as well be NK'd.

You know who I think is scum at the moment, but whether you change your vote is not dependent on whether you believe me or not, but on whether you can be bothered to put in the effort to access and read and follow the game.

This is a NEWBIE game, so Rule 1 of this game is:
1. PARTICIPATE

Over to you.
Adacore wrote:In all honesty, BigNose has been pinging me slightly with almost every post since the start of the game. But he always does - I was utterly convinced he was anti-town for most of Wizardry2 and he was the High Wizard. I just can't read him.

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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby phlip » Sun Sep 12, 2010 4:02 pm UTC

... well, crap.

Well, true to what I was saying before, we've got no reason not to trust the claim for now, sans counterclaim, so:
Unvote: BigNose

Noting that this puts us back to looking at no-lynch at the deadline.

There's only, what, 18 hours to deadline, which isn't really enough time to establish the lack of a counterclaim, so if BN survives the night we should definitely be a bit wary, but even then, if there's no counterclaim, we should trust it.

I'm way too tired right now to do some analysis to see who to vote for next... I suspect random lynch is better than no lynch, but whoever it is we lynch today, we'd have to work quickly. Tomorrow, when I'm awake, I'll have a look at TLC, see if there's something there. I don't trust myself to do any decent analysing right now given I should've been in bed several hours ago.

But even no lynch and BN NK'd as the doctor is still better than BN lynched as the doctor and someone else NK'd, so the claim was the right move even with the deadline.

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enum ಠ_ಠ {°□°╰=1, °Д°╰, ಠ益ಠ╰};
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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby <nyssa> » Sun Sep 12, 2010 4:21 pm UTC

bahahahhahahahahaha yeah I'd believe that.
Unvote: BigNose
Vote: TLC
Cause if BigNose is doctor, then he is town, and he thinks TLC is scummy and I am tired so if I'm going to believe he is the doctor then I may as well follow his lynch idea. Scummiest seeming doctor ever, but I can hardly leave a lynch vote on him now.

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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby Misnomer » Sun Sep 12, 2010 5:29 pm UTC

:shock:

Can we have an extension on the deadline (pretty please)?

We urgently need to test the validity of BN's claim. If BN is not the doctor then the real doctor needs to claim NOW. Phlip and Nyssa, as you've both posted I'm assuming you're not counter-claiming?

Also...

Unvote: BN
Vote: TLC


Because we need to make sure that there is a lynch today. TLC is easily the next best candidate for lynching - and I think i'm right in saying my vote gives TLC enough for a soft-lynch at the deadline. DON'T cast a hammer - we need to keep the day lasting as long as possible, in the hope that some of our inactives post.
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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby phlip » Sun Sep 12, 2010 10:45 pm UTC

Misnomer wrote:Phlip and Nyssa, as you've both posted I'm assuming you're not counter-claiming?

Correct. In my case, at least.

Misnomer wrote:Because we need to make sure that there is a lynch today. TLC is easily the next best candidate for lynching - and I think i'm right in saying my vote gives TLC enough for a soft-lynch at the deadline. DON'T cast a hammer - we need to keep the day lasting as long as possible, in the hope that some of our inactives post.

I agree with pretty much all of that. So absent another lynch candidate showing up, or everyone posting and not counterclaiming, both of which seem unlikely at this point, I probably won't cast a vote today.

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enum ಠ_ಠ {°□°╰=1, °Д°╰, ಠ益ಠ╰};
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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby Dr Ug » Mon Sep 13, 2010 4:17 am UTC

Sure, as long as the posting picks up you can have an extension.

72 hours from now.
Where did my old signature go? :(

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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby Misnomer » Mon Sep 13, 2010 12:34 pm UTC

Dr Ug wrote:Sure, as long as the posting picks up you can have an extension.

72 hours from now.


Awesome, this gives us a chance to get a sensible lynch done today, as opposed to a panicked switch to TLC.

Assuming that BN's claim goes unchallenged, and that replacements aren't brought in, then we have four lynch candidates for today:
<nyssa>
Tastelikecoke
Dark Loink
Phlip

My other games are all now currently in night, so I should be able to focus on this one. I'll throw out some more post-analyses this evening, and hope they illuminate this matter.

For now, my vote stays on TLC, who I'd like to see some solid content from. Now that we're no longer auto-lynching BN, there's plenty of ground for further comment and analysis, so people have no excuse not to post.
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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby tastelikecoke » Mon Sep 13, 2010 12:48 pm UTC

Misnomer wrote:TLC is easily the next best candidate for lynching - and I think i'm right in saying my vote gives TLC enough for a soft-lynch at the deadline.
Ack! We haven't exactly confirmed that BN is town, But if he was town, Then as scum why would I stall on voting BN? We should think on those players who will soon be modkill'd.

Here's the facts: I am not a doctor. The doctor, godfather and the miller are still alive. Legologos was gone for the Greek yachts. And the players with the power to counterclaim are DL, cf and LL.

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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby Misnomer » Mon Sep 13, 2010 1:13 pm UTC

tastelikecoke wrote:
Misnomer wrote:TLC is easily the next best candidate for lynching - and I think i'm right in saying my vote gives TLC enough for a soft-lynch at the deadline.
Ack! We haven't exactly confirmed that BN is town, But if he was town, Then as scum why would I stall on voting BN? We should think on those players who will soon be modkill'd.

Here's the facts: I am not a doctor. The doctor, godfather and the miller are still alive. Legologos was gone for the Greek yachts. And the players with the power to counterclaim are DL, cf and LL.
Whether or not we believe BN's caim is irrelevant - as long as his claim is unchallenged, we cannot lynch him. Therefore we need to lynch somebody else. There's no point in lynching the players who are about to be modkilled, for the simple reason that if the gf is hding among them, then the game is over anyway. Therefore, we need to lynch somebody from my list of four.

As for why you'd stall, there could be several reasons. By softly pushing everyone else towards a BN lynch, you'd then appear relatively innocent when he turned up town. Or, alternatively, you might have wanted to avoid a BN lynch, on the grounds that he's such an excellent source of wine.

My vote on you stands. If you want it to go away, give me a better target. :wink:
moody7277 wrote:The role of SDK in this game will be played by Misnomer. [/soapopera]

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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby <nyssa> » Mon Sep 13, 2010 2:02 pm UTC

Ooh I came home expecting it to be night time, but we have an extension. That's probably for the best, given the circumstances. I am really tired, but I thought I'd check in to say that I'm not the doctor. I'll try and weigh in on the situation better tomorrow afternoon, but no promises, I have a lot of marking to do tomorrow. Other than that we're really just waiting on replacements/posts from people. Or mod-kills. But I doubt the people that haven't been posting are miraculously going to start, what with being on cruises and what have you, so we're going to end up waiting for the deadline for a soft lynch anyway. I don't think there are enough players currently participating for a solid lynch before then, but we already have a soft lynch on tlc. Point is I think more likely than TLC being scum is one of the people up for modkill, hence Dr Ug looking for replacements, but modkill/lynch, not a lot of difference, really. We still have to wait three more days for it to happen.

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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby Misnomer » Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:07 pm UTC

Ok, first up, let's take a look at Nyssa...

Nyssa - Part 1
Spoiler:
<nyssa> wrote:Rightio, well, this is my first mafia game, but thankfully I'm familiar with the flavour and its a completely open set up, so that should help. As for comments, I'm not sure there's much to say as yet, but its interesting that we have a miller, I've never seen that role before, someone who comes up scum when they're actually town.

Standard "well its starting" post, in my opinion. BN flagged up a contradiction between the claim that this is her first mafia game and her comment that the role of miller is new to her. I took this to mean that it's her first game on here. Anyways, I don't think its a scum tell. Neutral.

<nyssa> wrote:
_infina_ wrote:The false cop problem is two-fold. No counter-claim, and a false cop can lead the town against one of its own, or off from another scum. A counter-claim will out the real cop to scum, and will allow the scum to nk the cop, if he is not the one lynched. Losing even 1 town is unacceptable, so the doc had better be good. I strive for perfection.

ninja'd x 2

Did you read Diablo Mafia. If you did, you would see why I am wary of cops. The first sentence was my condemning it. Someone claiming miller now will just lead to lynching them, and otherwise the cop would declare them scum for them to claim, opening the scum up a chance at a kill. And I was thinking more along the lines of the GF false claiming. Confirming miller? Are you serious? What if both non-GF scum claim miller? Did you think of that? I think you are the scum.

Vote:arduous


Look, the way it stands at the moment, the cop can't trust his own investigations, there's always the chance of him hitting the miller or the godfather, who's investigation results are reversed. So it's helpful to town for the miller to claim, then if we only have one claim, we know who the miller is and can effectively cop scum. If we have two claims, we pick one to lynch, and whatever happens we will end up knowing who the miller is (whether he's alive or not), having lynched a scum member and being able to trust any further investigations that come up scum. More than two claims would just be silly - even if we happen to lynch the real miller on the first night, we then know who the other two non-GF scum are. I don't think they would do that. Infina, I think you're protesting a lot. I also can't see a scenario in which we don't lose any town.
Also I managed to be ninja'd a lot by phlip. My argument runs the same, but his is better written :P.

A solid and reasonably early attack on infina. Clearly states why it is in town's interest for the miller to claim, and throws suspicion onto infina. Leaning town.

<nyssa> wrote:Posting to say I'm also not the Miller. I'm pretty happy with believing Misnomer from the looks of it. And uh, if we're happy with the fact that he's the Miller, and we know the Miller is town, why would we lynch him? That makes no sense Infina. There will always be someone better to lynch, for a start, even just picking randomly we have a chance of hitting scum, whereas if we lynch the miller, we've just killed one of our own. Also, and I'll have to reread BigNose's posts to be sure, but he didn't ping me as seeming too scummy, to be honest. Infina, if he *is* a town power role, and scum hadn't picked up on it yet, you kinda just said "Woo scum look over here NK this one!". You do realise that what you write here can be read by everyone, right? And your 'fixed' version of that post doesn't look much better. At the moment a better person to lynch would be you. Even if you are town, and are just doing your usual dreadful D1 play, where you get yourself lynched and then turn up town, if the choice is between lynching the miller, who is confirmed town, and lynching you, who is possibly town and spreading wine, then I'm pretty happy to go with you.

More attacks on infina, which can't really be considered a towntell by this point. Doesn't actually vote for infina. Neutral at best.

<nyssa> wrote:I..err...what? Honestly, a girl goes out for a few hours and misses all the action!
Dark Loink wrote:Anyways,
If we don't get answers, I'm going to hammer in a few hours. Because that will at least clear up something. But I will be gone for a few hours, then I can discuss more of what has happened. But the self vote is what caught my eye. I am now confused.
I really badly want to vote, this being my first game and all, but also because of that I want to hear as much explanation of scenarios and posts as possible. So I'd like to wait until Dark Loink is back so I can hear what he has to say. I'm not interested in anything Infina has to say anymore.

Wants to delay the hammer for further discussion. Possibly protesting too much about how she wants to vote for infina, but it's a minor thing. Leaning town.
Nyssa - Part 2
Spoiler:
<nyssa> wrote:Yay weekend! I have finally got time to post something meaningful. Let's see, infina turned out to be scum, which was really not much of a surprise, and we lost the cop, which is a shame, seeing as we spent all of D1 trying to make his investigations meaningful. But no matter, on to what to do today.
Looking at infina's posts now, knowing that he's scum, I think there are some things we can pull out. First of all, he says this:
_infina_ wrote:Wow BN, if you're not scum, you just gave them a reason to pick you apart.
And then goes on about power roles, which he later states wasn't about BN. Then, in response to me, all he said was why he didn't think BN was a power role, and that he may be 'slightly scummy'. So he doesn't actually state what the reason is that BN should be picked apart by scum. I'm thinking this might be a half-baked attempt at making BN not seem like one of his scum buddies.
Then, BN attacks infina twice but does not vote, FoS or IGMEOY or anything. Also he says that 'revenge would be sweet'. Not 100% sure what to make of this, but I think they could both be scum and trying to make it seem like they are not by arguing with each other. Overcompensating?
In the very next post, infina, having spent most of his time talking about how he thought BN 'might be slightly scummy', FoS's Two-Fry, seemingly out of nowhere for posting little content. I think this may have been a random grab at a townie to try and get us away from him or BN, as in the same post he unvoted himself and stated he wanted to try and generate more discussion and extend the day.
But then there is this post:
_infina_ wrote:Vote:_infina_
and there is the curtain for the roleblocker. Goodnight BN.
He hammers himself, fair enough, saved us from doing it, but he says Goodnight BN. I don't know here if he's saying goodbye to his scum buddy either just because, or because he thinks we will lynch him D2, or whether he is saying goodnight because he thinks that he has made us think BN will be NK'd. Point is though, BN wasn't NK'd, arduous was, which makes BN seem even more scummy.
So err, yeah. I only really looked at infina and BN's posts and will have to look at other people's myself in addition to reading everyone's analyses, which I've done, but it is enough for me to FoS: BN, and get back to my homework.

Hard to know what to make of this. She goes into detail on the implications of infina's behaviour, and of the possibility of distancing between BN and infina. With the benefit of hindsight however, one thing about this post is really pinging me - she dismisses the FoS of two-fry without as much as a second thought. So I'm going to call this leaning scum.

<nyssa> wrote:
BigNose wrote:OK, A quick reposte as I have just got back:
Go read Diablo II
Err, I'm good. I'm guessing your defence is that something you said I thought was scummy and it was actually just a reference to something I haven't read or played or have a desire to read or play...the flavour is Spaceballs, not Diablo. Don't assume people know what you are talking about.
Vote: BN

I'm in a bad mood today.

When BN did his analysis of this post, he claimed that the post was aimed at many people, and cast suspicion over nyssa apparently making it personal. Reading back through the thread though, it seems pretty reasonable for nyssa to assume it was aimed at her (she had posted directly before it, and her post concentrated quite strongly on the infina/BN relationship). Bad mood posts can make for good scum cover though, and the vote is surprising. Slightly leaning scum.

<nyssa> wrote:Ohhhhh, he was talking about a Mafia Game? See what I mean about not assuming people know what you are talking about? I thought he meant the RPG.

I'm inclined to think that the confusion about Diablo was genuine. No unvote though, which you'd normally suspect from the unravelling of a misunderstanding. Again, leaning slightly scum.

<nyssa> wrote:Ahaha, oh dear, my vote didn't count because I didn't spell out Big Nose properly, I am guessing. Probably for the best, I was in a bad mood and I need to read all this again and see if I can see the reasons for this Two-Fry wagon. If I can't I will be voting for Big Nose for realz.

Ug missed out her vote, hence this post. Calling the votes against two-fry a wagon pings me quite a bit, and suggest an unexpected hostility to the idea of a two-fry lynch. Pushes for BN again, despite admitting that her bad mood may have clouded her judgement. Scummy.

<nyssa> wrote:These are the players who are not dead.
2. meatyochre
3. <nyssa>
4. blackfuse81
5. ElectricHaze
6. Misnomer
7. tastelikecoke
8. Dark Loink
9. phlip
10. Two-Fry
12. BigNose
Of them, EH, Misnomer, TLC, Two-Fry and myself have voted. Blackfuse81 and meatyochre have been fairly inactive, meaty even saying she didn't mind being replaced. Mod: Do we know what is happening there?
Anyway, that leaves phlip, DL and BN. Unofficially, since Misnomer changed his vote to BN, Two-Fry and BN have two votes each, and TLC has one. So even if the three of them voted the same way, we still wouldn't lynch anyone, as we need 6 to lynch. We really need to be working together. Now, I have voted for BigNose. He has been all over the place and pinging me and generally acting scummy, and I've explained why I think that. His defence was basically for me to go and meta-game by reading another one, which I wasn't too pleased about. But then I didn't like Two-Fry's "when I turn up town..." argument, which, from reading other games, I've only ever seen scum do, generally as a last ditch attempt which doesn't work. Also him commenting about BigNose in that post, he should be unsure about BN's alignment, and I know he's set on voting for TLC but at the moment it does seem like BN and Two-Fry are trying very hard not to vote for each other, seeing as BN has also stated that he would vote for TLC if pushed, and then votes Misnomer out of the blue when a) he is confirmed town and b) there are three perfectly good scum candidates to look at (two if he doesn't count himself). I think if one (or both) was town they would have voted for the other by now.
Lynching one or the other of them will help town, I think, it will hopefully clear up some of the left over _infina_ wine. So to give us something to talk about and stop this day from dragging on any longer, we should probably decide which one, or neither and lynch TLC (but I'm not sure I'm keen on that idea tbh).

Starts off fairly solid. Repeats her suspicions of BN, and makes a very good poiint about how both BN and Two-Fry seem to be avoiding voting for each other, and building up a case on TLC - but then rather spoils this by saying that she'd be happy to vote for TLC herself. Wants the day to end, but I'm not sure that can be considered much of a scumtell in this game, given how long its days have lasted. Neutral, possibly slightly scummy.

<nyssa> wrote:Err, hmmm. That's quite a wall o' text up there. I have only skimmed it, for now (its almost 1am here and I need sleep), but it is enough for me to
unvote
to show good faith. I voted BigNose because at the time he seemed very scummy to me, but there are some good arguments being made against Two-Fry. I'll read EH's post properly tomorrow (hopefully in the afternoon) and post my thoughts. If the day ends before I am back, so be it. I really don't think it will though, the way things are going, so hopefully I'll have a chance to think about this and post something.

Odd. She's implies that she's read and has a good enough grip of EH's post to unvote BN, and also admits that the arguments are strong against Two-Fry. Yet she doesn't vote, implying she doubts two-fry is guilty - but then states that she's content with the day to end on a two-fry lynch. Leaning scum.
Nyssa - Part 3
Spoiler:
<nyssa> wrote:Ok. I'm not sure 100% what to do now, with the whole never having played before thing, but I'm going to do my best. First, people have been saying I sound a bit scummy, which is a bit sad, so I thought I would try and defend myself against any analysis of myself which says I might be scummy. It turns out only Dark Loink and BigNose analysed me, and only BigNose said I might be scummy, and only then because he was tied to it, so maybe people don't think I'm that scummy after all. Anyway, defense pertaining to BigNose's post under the spoiler.

BigNose wrote:ANALYSIS: <nyssa>
<nyssa> wrote:Rightio, well, this is my first mafia game, but thankfully I'm familiar with the flavour and its a completely open set up, so that should help. As for comments, I'm not sure there's much to say as yet, but its interesting that we have a miller, I've never seen that role before, someone who comes up scum when they're actually town.

WHAT? Somewhat contradictory statements there, as it seems that he HAS played mafia before.

I think this is a bit of an overreaction, I haven't played before, but that doesn't mean I haven't read other games/the wiki to try and work out what to do. And I didn't come across the miller role in my research. After that post I went and looked at the mafia wiki and read up on the miller role. Also, she.
BigNose wrote:
<nyssa> wrote:Look, the way it stands at the moment, the cop can't trust his own investigations, there's always the chance of him hitting the miller or the godfather, who's investigation results are reversed. So it's helpful to town for the miller to claim, then if we only have one claim, we know who the miller is and can effectively cop scum. If we have two claims, we pick one to lynch, and whatever happens we will end up knowing who the miller is (whether he's alive or not), having lynched a scum member and being able to trust any further investigations that come up scum. More than two claims would just be silly - even if we happen to lynch the real miller on the first night, we then know who the other two non-GF scum are. I don't think they would do that. Infina, I think you're protesting a lot. I also can't see a scenario in which we don't lose any town.
Also I managed to be ninja'd a lot by phlip. My argument runs the same, but his is better written :P.

Wants the outing of the Miller. Really only good for Town/Cop.

<nyssa> wrote:Posting to say I'm also not the Miller. I'm pretty happy with believing Misnomer from the looks of it. And uh, if we're happy with the fact that he's the Miller, and we know the Miller is town, why would we lynch him? That makes no sense Infina. There will always be someone better to lynch, for a start, even just picking randomly we have a chance of hitting scum, whereas if we lynch the miller, we've just killed one of our own. Also, and I'll have to reread BigNose's posts to be sure, but he didn't ping me as seeming too scummy, to be honest. Infina, if he *is* a town power role, and scum hadn't picked up on it yet, you kinda just said "Woo scum look over here NK this one!". You do realise that what you write here can be read by everyone, right? And your 'fixed' version of that post doesn't look much better. At the moment a better person to lynch would be you. Even if you are town, and are just doing your usual dreadful D1 play, where you get yourself lynched and then turn up town, if the choice is between lynching the miller, who is confirmed town, and lynching you, who is possibly town and spreading wine, then I'm pretty happy to go with you.

Slaps Infina's logic.

<nyssa> wrote:I..err...what? Honestly, a girl goes out for a few hours and misses all the action!
I really badly want to vote, this being my first game and all, but also because of that I want to hear as much explanation of scenarios and posts as possible. So I'd like to wait until Dark Loink is back so I can hear what he has to say. I'm not interested in anything Infina has to say anymore.
Really wants to vote but ACTUALLY doesn't.

I didn't vote here, well, for reasons stated, and would have voted next time I was on, if infina hadn't hammered himself. Also, in the post responding to my post, BN also doesn't vote, so he can't *really* use this argument against me.

BigNose wrote:
<nyssa> wrote:Yay weekend! I have finally got time to post something meaningful. Let's see, infina turned out to be scum, which was really not much of a surprise, and we lost the cop, which is a shame, seeing as we spent all of D1 trying to make his investigations meaningful. But no matter, on to what to do today.
Looking at infina's posts now, knowing that he's scum, I think there are some things we can pull out. First of all, he says this:
_infina_ wrote:Wow BN, if you're not scum, you just gave them a reason to pick you apart.
And then goes on about power roles, which he later states wasn't about BN. Then, in response to me, all he said was why he didn't think BN was a power role, and that he may be 'slightly scummy'. So he doesn't actually state what the reason is that BN should be picked apart by scum. I'm thinking this might be a half-baked attempt at making BN not seem like one of his scum buddies.
Then, BN attacks infina twice but does not vote, FoS or IGMEOY or anything. Also he says that 'revenge would be sweet'. Not 100% sure what to make of this, but I think they could both be scum and trying to make it seem like they are not by arguing with each other. Overcompensating?
In the very next post, infina, having spent most of his time talking about how he thought BN 'might be slightly scummy', FoS's Two-Fry, seemingly out of nowhere for posting little content. I think this may have been a random grab at a townie to try and get us away from him or BN, as in the same post he unvoted himself and stated he wanted to try and generate more discussion and extend the day.
But then there is this post:
_infina_ wrote:Vote:_infina_
and there is the curtain for the roleblocker. Goodnight BN.
He hammers himself, fair enough, saved us from doing it, but he says Goodnight BN. I don't know here if he's saying goodbye to his scum buddy either just because, or because he thinks we will lynch him D2, or whether he is saying goodnight because he thinks that he has made us think BN will be NK'd. Point is though, BN wasn't NK'd, arduous was, which makes BN seem even more scummy.
So err, yeah. I only really looked at infina and BN's posts and will have to look at other people's myself in addition to reading everyone's analyses, which I've done, but it is enough for me to FoS: BN, and get back to my homework.

Lengthy analysis of Infina and myself's back and forth. States she needs to look at others.

<nyssa> wrote:
BigNose wrote:OK, A quick reposte as I have just got back:
Go read Diablo II
Err, I'm good. I'm guessing your defence is that something you said I thought was scummy and it was actually just a reference to something I haven't read or played or have a desire to read or play...the flavour is Spaceballs, not Diablo. Don't assume people know what you are talking about.
Vote: BN

I'm in a bad mood today.
Votes for me in a bad mood. My response was to several people. Why are you making it personal?

Yeah..here I was in a bad mood. Lessons learned include not posting when angry and stressed.
BigNose wrote:
<nyssa> wrote:Ohhhhh, he was talking about a Mafia Game? See what I mean about not assuming people know what you are talking about? I thought he meant the RPG.
Nothing to note.

<nyssa> wrote:Ahaha, oh dear, my vote didn't count because I didn't spell out Big Nose properly, I am guessing. Probably for the best, I was in a bad mood and I need to read all this again and see if I can see the reasons for this Two-Fry wagon. If I can't I will be voting for Big Nose for realz.
Re-quotes her bad mood vote. States that she'll look over it all again, then it's either Two-Fry if she can find something, or me if not.

<nyssa> wrote:These are the players who are not dead.
2. meatyochre
3. <nyssa>
4. blackfuse81
5. ElectricHaze
6. Misnomer
7. tastelikecoke
8. Dark Loink
9. phlip
10. Two-Fry
12. BigNose
Of them, EH, Misnomer, TLC, Two-Fry and myself have voted. Blackfuse81 and meatyochre have been fairly inactive, meaty even saying she didn't mind being replaced.

Mod: Do we know what is happening there?

Anyway, that leaves phlip, DL and BN. Unofficially, since Misnomer changed his vote to BN, Two-Fry and BN have two votes each, and TLC has one. So even if the three of them voted the same way, we still wouldn't lynch anyone, as we need 6 to lynch. We really need to be working together. Now, I have voted for BigNose. He has been all over the place and pinging me and generally acting scummy, and I've explained why I think that. His defence was basically for me to go and meta-game by reading another one, which I wasn't too pleased about. But then I didn't like Two-Fry's "when I turn up town..." argument, which, from reading other games, I've only ever seen scum do, generally as a last ditch attempt which doesn't work. Also him commenting about BigNose in that post, he should be unsure about BN's alignment, and I know he's set on voting for TLC but at the moment it does seem like BN and Two-Fry are trying very hard not to vote for each other, seeing as BN has also stated that he would vote for TLC if pushed, and then votes Misnomer out of the blue when a) he is confirmed town and b) there are three perfectly good scum candidates to look at (two if he doesn't count himself). I think if one (or both) was town they would have voted for the other by now.
Lynching one or the other of them will help town, I think, it will hopefully clear up some of the left over _infina_ wine. So to give us something to talk about and stop this day from dragging on any longer, we should probably decide which one, or neither and lynch TLC (but I'm not sure I'm keen on that idea tbh).
Notes the lack of content from meaty and blackfuse. Accuses me of being scummy. Comments on my out-of-the-blue vote on Misnomer, despite a post from me defining that it was simple mistake and hence unvoted.

VERDICT: <nyssa>'s last post pinged me as potential scum pushing a 1-or-other strategy which is why I started this analysis. But looking through all her posts, while they could be scummy, I think that because I am tied in with it, my view is slightly distorted.
This last part, pushing the one or the other strategy..yeah, another lesson learned. I am too impatient. But at the time, seeing as the two main lynch candidates couldn't actually be lynched unless we worked together and decided on one, the other, or someone else entirely, I felt the best thing for town to do would be just that.

Anyway, after looking at that indepth, it turns out there wasn't actually much there, which makes me feel better. With everyone saying I sounded scummy I was heaps worried I was hurting town, and I wanted to clear that up. Um. Not sure who we should lynch now we know Two-Fry was scum though. However, in the post where Two-Fry admitted to being scum, he did say this:
Two-Fry wrote:Meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeh
I'm tired of this. If I'm not lynched today, I almost certainly will be tomorrow. What's the point of fighting it? I made a few screw ups once I was put under pressure, and now I'm good as dead. Infina really screwed up by naming us. Thanks a lot.

Emphasis mine. Which suggests to me that someone infina named is the other scum. Looking through infina's posts, he only named Two-Fry, BigNose and ElectricHaze by name, EH only in passing (ooh and he OMGUS votes arduous on the first page, but that was before anything much happened AND arduous is dead, so we can't draw a heap from that at this point). This isn't exactly steering me away from thinking BigNose is scummy. What is steering me away from that are some of the analyses up the page, which I will need to read more carefully than I have and see if I agree with.

Spoilers removed to prevent post from breaking. Commenting that perhaps people don't find her scummy after all strikes me as an odd remark to make. In fact, the whole post seems excessively defensive - if votes were starting to fly at nyssa, this kind of post could be understood, but there really wasn't much pressure on her at all at this point. It could be that she was annoyed at what she thought was mud being thrown at her by BN. As for the latter section, it would appear townie, but by this point my parnoia can't rule it out from being a clever scum ploy. Overall, leaning scum.

<nyssa> wrote:Well, I have been prodded, and I have not been posting on account of the large amount of homework I have to do, and the lack of stuff that has been in thread. I will have finished this assignment by tomorrow (I have to, thats when its due >.<), and can provide more content (in so far as I can find any) by then chaps and chaplettes. Sorry guys.

Prod apology post. Neutral.

<nyssa> wrote:
LegoLogos wrote:<nyssa> will probably post later in the day, although I don't know what she's going to post about.

Hello! I don't know what I'm going to post about either. Except that BigNose still seems scummy to me, and the fact that infina named him, as said before, seems scummy, and this game is going nowhere fast.

So some maths (for this is what I'm good at, four years of university has to pay off sometime):
Assume DarkLoink and CrucialityFactor make a post before the end of the day and are not modkilled.
Then,
If we lynch BigNose, and he turns up scum, yay! We win.
If we lynch BigNose and he turns up town, and the scum kill a townie overnight, we will either be at 5 town 1 scum tomorrow or 6 town 1 scum (depending on our doctor friend), neither of which are a catastrophe.
Then we could lynch TLC! Seeing as he seems scummy to some of you, I just have no idea what he's on about most of the time. If TLC==scum, we win; else 3/4 town 1 scum. Then it starts to be a problem, but there's plenty of opportunities to win in the meantime, yes?

Same logic for if we lynch TLC today and BigNose tomorrow (or anyone else for that matter, these two just seemed convenient to use as an example).

Assuming DarkLoink and/or CrucialityFactor are modkilled it gets more complicated.
If one of them is scum and modkilled, that would, err, suck. It would be really anticlimactic.

If they are both town, and we vote no lynch, AND the scum NK someone successfully we will be at 4 town 1 scum tomorrow, which is slightly more worrying. If Mr/Ms Doctor comes to the rescue, we will have 5 town and 1 scum. Hooray!
If they are both town, and we lynch a townie AND scum NK someone, we lose four town. We currently have 8 players, 1 scum means 7 town, so tomorrow we will only have 3 town left. Four if the doctor gets the right person (no pressure).
If they are both town, and we lynch Mr/Ms Scum then hooray we win. No more maths required.

So basically, it would really suck for the game to have those two modkilled, so I hope they post soon. Not that much can be done beyond mod-prods - if they aren't near the internet, they aren't near the internet. I don't however think its a good plan to wait to see if they are modkilled and then act on those results, because no one will post in the meantime. I think we should play as though they are going to come back and participate and seeing as when they were posting neither seemed overly scummy, I'm pretty happy to

Vote: BigNose

Because even if he turns up town and scum kills someone, provided no one is modkilled, we're still in an ok position tomorrow. And don't go telling me that the fact that I'm ok with potentially lynching a townie to keep the game moving makes me scum. I've clearly stated its not the end of town for this to happen, I've clearly stated why BigNose seems like scum to me (so I think this lynch is a pretty safe bet), and you are *always* potentially lynching a townie, unless the person states themselves that they are scum, like Two-Fry did.

Long post is long, but hopefully constitutes content.

Not sure how useful this post is. Running through the numbers looks like a lot of conent, but doesn't really help town's understanding of the situation. That said, nothing strikes me as particularly scummy here. Neutral.

<nyssa> wrote:Rightio well I don't think the doctor should claim, that will only get him night-killed and not get us anywhere. Also, err, our friendly neighbourhood mod said a few days ago that CF would be mod-killed if he didn't post by the end of day, and it is almost the end of day and he still hasn't posted. However, our mod is now looking for replacements in the sign-ups thread. Maybe modkilling CF would end the game, as in he is the last scum? Remember he was the replacement for Meatyochre, who people did say was acting a bit scummy at the beginning of the game before she became inactive and asked to be replaced, but I think with all the infina nonsense going on no one really paid too much attention to that. Anyway, this is just something I noticed. Perhaps the people who thought Meaty was a bit scummy (iirc phlip and Misnomer) could say why, and maybe we could get some discussion in? I won't unvote till there is discussion though, because I'd still rather *a* lynch for information than no lynch due to a deadline, no lynch won't gain us any information, I don't think.

The question of the significance of the replacement seeking is a fair one, although I personally feel it points to LL more than CF. Anyways, post is a solid one asking reasonable questions, and states the importance of avoiding an accidental no lynch. Leaning town.

<nyssa> wrote:Well in that case, seeing as the only people posting are the people already voting for BigNose + tlc + BigNose, and there's less than a day left till the deadline, I say leave it. Just leave it. I won't be near the internet again till after the deadline has passed and even if I was, I can't see enough discussion for people to be sure about lynching someone happening. Let's forget about providing content when there isn't any to provide and just lynch BigNose and then decide what to do tomorrow based on that and any modkills that happen. At this point I'm pretty hopeful that either BigNose or someone who is going to be modkilled is scum, so this game can end. It started off so fun, and now its like a ghost town.

A day is a long time in politics mafia. Under usual circumstances, a post like this would be a massive scumtell, but I think this could be genuine fatalism. This game was dragging on without much hope of anything happening. I'm going to call it neutral, and hope that we have no more need for such feeling in the rest of the game.

<nyssa> wrote:bahahahhahahahahaha yeah I'd believe that.
Unvote: BigNose
Vote: TLC
Cause if BigNose is doctor, then he is town, and he thinks TLC is scummy and I am tired so if I'm going to believe he is the doctor then I may as well follow his lynch idea. Scummiest seeming doctor ever, but I can hardly leave a lynch vote on him now.

Switches vote, which is a town thing to do in the situation. Reasons are a little weak, but can perhaps be put down to the close deadline. Something about the tone strkes me as a little off though, especially with the way she implies she's being forced to unvote so as not to seem suspicious. Still, actions speak louder than words, so leaning town.

<nyssa> wrote:Ooh I came home expecting it to be night time, but we have an extension. That's probably for the best, given the circumstances. I am really tired, but I thought I'd check in to say that I'm not the doctor. I'll try and weigh in on the situation better tomorrow afternoon, but no promises, I have a lot of marking to do tomorrow. Other than that we're really just waiting on replacements/posts from people. Or mod-kills. But I doubt the people that haven't been posting are miraculously going to start, what with being on cruises and what have you, so we're going to end up waiting for the deadline for a soft lynch anyway. I don't think there are enough players currently participating for a solid lynch before then, but we already have a soft lynch on tlc. Point is I think more likely than TLC being scum is one of the people up for modkill, hence Dr Ug looking for replacements, but modkill/lynch, not a lot of difference, really. We still have to wait three more days for it to happen.

Seems resigned to the conclusion that TLC isn't mafia, "expecting it to be night time". Potential scum slip? Also now seems to believe that BN is the doctor, which is a change of tone (admittedly, one now arguably justified). No comments on the idea of lynching somebody who isn't tlc or about to be modkilled. Slightly scummy.
Conclusion: Nyssa seems scummy. She has produced townie posts, but she seemed reluctant to consider the allegations against two-fry, and has also appeared over-defensive.

For the record, the other analyses on her are:
DL (early D2) - townie
BN (late D2) - scummy, though possibly distorted analysis.


Stay tuned for more, folks! :wink:
moody7277 wrote:The role of SDK in this game will be played by Misnomer. [/soapopera]

User avatar
Misnomer
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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby Misnomer » Mon Sep 13, 2010 4:38 pm UTC

Next up is Dark Loink.

Dark Loink - Part 1
Spoiler:
Dark Loink wrote:Alright...I'd say we probably have a godfather, knowing the set-up. Dark Helmut would probably be some sort of...roleblocker of sorts. There are probably 6 vanil-
Yeah. So open set-up. This is my confirming, I don't really have much to comment on as of yet. But cool.

Joke role-spec in opening post. Neutral.

Dark Loink wrote:Wow, thats a lot of posts. In...about 11 hours. Wow. Are you sure this isn't a turbo game? :P
Anyways, a lot of posts, which is good-something to comment on. Now here is my reaction to pretty much the entire game so far.

Millers: A problem, in basicly any game. That claim always comes with wine, and can not come without, unless only a godfather is left.
Follow the cop is not impossible-when the cop finds scum, or if the roleblocker is...dead. Then there should not be a problem, but still, there are such things as false claims. So, you always have to really pay attention and think about cop claims, because there is always a good chance of a false one. Yet there is a good chance of a real one as well.
_infina_ wrote:Is there a suggestion to follow the cop? I must warn you to be wary of any cop claims. I was NKed because of a false cop claim that I wanted to test. I disagree with having the miller claim. To much wine will follow. Just two miller claims will give the mafia enough time to pick off Yogurt and Lone Starr, leaving you with not much to go on.

Yeah. False cop claims happen. If we had cop claims from people, it get confusing, but interesting. But right on the next post

arduous wrote:
_infina_ wrote:Is there a suggestion to follow the cop? I must warn you to be wary of any cop claims. I was NKed because of a false cop claim that I wanted to test. I disagree with having the miller claim. To much wine will follow. Just two miller claims will give the mafia enough time to pick off Yogurt and Lone Starr, leaving you with not much to go on.


Well, first of all, we can't do follow the cop because there is a roleblock.
Second, if we have two miller claims then there is a 50% chance we get a free mafia kill, and otherwise we trade a miller lynch for a mafia kill.
Third, if we're going to assume that we're going to lose Yogurt followed by Lone Starr, we're pretty screwed no matter what we do.

Am I the only one who pinged got the biggest ping ever from _Infina_'s post?

Brings up FTC(and doesn't condemn it) when a rolebocker is afoot, tells town to be wary of cop claims(with reasoning that it might be a townie falseclaiming cop?), and opposes the miller claim, on grounds that clearing the wine(and getting rid of a scum and miller in the process and worst case scenario, best case just getting scum and confirming the miller) would give the scum time to happen to kill off all our power roles. I can't find a single part of the post that isn't a scum tell.

Heck, I think this would warrant a Vote: _Infina_

And now we have this. Infinia says he was night killed because of a false cop claim. Was he townie in that game? Because...trying to make cops seem scummy is not a good townie move. While I agreed with some of the points, this did seem a bit much like making the cop untrustworthy, in one of his first posts. :shock: So I can see why you think this is scummy.
_infina_ wrote:The false cop problem is two-fold. No counter-claim, and a false cop can lead the town against one of its own, or off from another scum. A counter-claim will out the real cop to scum, and will allow the scum to nk the cop, if he is not the one lynched. Losing even 1 town is unacceptable, so the doc had better be good. I strive for perfection.

ninja'd x 2

Did you read Diablo Mafia. If you did, you would see why I am wary of cops. The first sentence was my condemning it. Someone claiming miller now will just lead to lynching them, and otherwise the cop would declare them scum for them to claim, opening the scum up a chance at a kill. And I was thinking more along the lines of the GF false claiming. Confirming miller? Are you serious? What if both non-GF scum claim miller? Did you think of that? I think you are the scum.

Vote:arduous

OMGUS. Great. This opens discussion though...so my thoughts on this.
Again, he immidetly votes the guy who voted him. Not the towniest behavior...but infinia isn't the towniest person, far as I know.
If both scum claimed miller. I suppose it is possible. This post has good points but...
_infina_ wrote:I don't want to turn this into one of those D1 arguments where both participants become prime lynch candidates. It gives the scum to much of a chance to push both through. I will wait until everyone else has a chance at posting first before making anymore rash decisions. I'm not joking about the not losing a single town. I want the town to win without a loss. In my first game I allowed the mafia to win without a loss. I want to reverse that for this game.
unvote

...Still uneasy, honestly. Saying he doesn't want this to be one of those D1 arguements...which is making him and arduous both being the townies who start arguing. Townies dieing are acceptable losses-as long as scum loses in the end. The point is not to survive, it is to kill the others. Keeping all of the townies alive is ideal, but a near impossible ideal. If we all worry about all townies surviving, then we won't take risks, in getting scum killed. Sometimes you need to die to prove a point, sometimes you being agressive lynches scum but makes you seem scummy. You can, but you have to accept the fact of townies dieing for a town win. But, anyways, on to the next one
phlip wrote:
_infina_ wrote:Someone claiming miller now will just lead to lynching them, and otherwise the cop would declare them scum for them to claim, opening the scum up a chance at a kill. And I was thinking more along the lines of the GF false claiming. Confirming miller? Are you serious? What if both non-GF scum claim miller? Did you think of that? I think you are the scum.

I made a similar mistake to this in my first newbie game... thinking "but what if the scum falseclaims and the real role doesn't claim?"... 'course, that was with actual power-roles, not a miller, and it was in the late game, but the principle's the same.

The point is that the miller wants the town to win, and doesn't have to survive to win. If a townie can do something to increase the chance of a town win, even at the expense of their own survival, it makes sense for them to do it. If everyone in the town agrees that a miller claim would be a good thing for town, then when the miller claims come in, one of them will be real. The possibility of "one of the scum claims miller but the real miller stays silent" is removed from the table because the miller wants the town to win, and staying silent (especially given the discussion saying that a miller claim would be good) would harm the town.
So if we only get one claim, it's going to be the miller... and we then have a confirmed townie, better chances of lynching and copping scum, and knowledge that if a cop result comes up scum then it's real - benefits all around (even if the miller is NKed, which they might be... on one hand, they're no power role, but on the other hand, they're a confirmed townie, which is harmful to scum in and of itself). And if we get multiple claims, then all the ones that aren't real will be scum, and we can lynch all the claimers (unless we happen to lynch the scum first, in which case the remaining claimer is the true miller)... in which case, we have a lynched scum member, and again know who the miller is (be they alive or dead) and be able to rely on cop scum results.

In short: I think a miller claim is good, and should happen D1, so the cop doesn't have a chance to waste investigations on someone who'll later claim anyway. But even if the discussion goes the other way, and we decide against miller claiming for whatever reason, then if, later, the scum does falseclaim, the real miller should counterclaim as soon as possible anyway, to clear up the mud.

I really think you're flying off the handle a bit much, infina... from what I understand, crazy behaviour is par for the course for you, so I'm not voting yet, but IGMEOY.

wow. Big. This post makes sense, I agree with what he is saying, for the most part. Of course, infinia saying that both scum could claim is a possibity. But if both scum claim, the miller would claim too. Then we would have 3, and scum would be utterly screwed. So if that did happen, it would be a VERY good thing. We'd lose a townie and two scum. For a non-miller townie to claim miller would...not happen.
_infina_ wrote:
phlip wrote:
_infina_ wrote:I must say, the miller may go against the wishes of the town and decide not to claim even if we want such a claim to happen.

But I don't see why they would... sure, they'd have a better chance of surviving in the short term by avoiding the lynch, but they'd be severely damaging the town's (and thus their own) chance of winning the whole game. The phrase "win the battle, lose the war" comes to mind.

I mean, it's not like the miller's going to be zerker, he's not even in this game.

And thank the mod for that, but you never know when something like that might happen.
We could always lynch the miller right away to prevent scum from using it as an excuse, but that is a town player down first thing. Not the best way to start a game, but could always be worse.

...was he really suggesting to lynch the miller D1? Really? After saying they shouldn't claim, now saying we can lynch them? Although the arguement is...somewhat sound. Scum could NOT use "I'm the miller, really!" As an excuse. Although right now I wouldn't suggest it. Unless we get multiple claims.

Misnomer wrote:Right, after doing some background reading...

Claim: Miller

If nobody challenges, then I haven't lost anything and am less likely to be lynched. If the scum counter-claims, then they either get lynched today or tomorrow. Either way it works out pretty good for the town.

For the record though, I would rather not be lynched on the first day! :wink:

Well, here we are. Miller claimed. Again-if there is a miller, who is not misnomer, claim. I understand even scum may try to counter-claim, but then...we have maybe scum and a miller dead. Not the most bad trade.

And I'll look at some other posts later, but this has taken enough of my time for now.

Surprisingly soft on infina. :shock: States on a number of occasions that he thinks infina is making good points, even when raising the prospect of a miller lynch. Does admittedly also state that infina's posts are making him uneasy. Possibly DL just has a cautious play style, but I think I'm going to have to call this slightly scummy.

Dark Loink wrote::| :o :?
_infina_ wrote:Next, if I was scum, why would I continue to do things to make me stand out? The goal of scum is to hide, correct? I'm just a little to easy to find stuff in each post. Although, this would be my first time getting lynched for something I did. It might be fun. Lets try it.
Vote:_infina_

That should make it
_infina_ - 4 (arduous, blackfuse81, ElectricHaze, _infina_)

what.
I...what.
If he were scum, a better idea would have been talking the others out of it...if he were town a better idea would have been the exact same thing.
I have no idea what this is. If it is some sort of ploy to make us afraid to lynch him because he is acting like this, um...I'm not sure what I want to do. Why would you do this as any faction ever?(jester aside, but then you made them afraid to lynch you.) Because having a facination with screwing up and getting lynched to the point of self lynch...
Why?

Anyways,
If we don't get answers, I'm going to hammer in a few hours. Because that will at least clear up something. But I will be gone for a few hours, then I can discuss more of what has happened. But the self vote is what caught my eye. I am now confused.

Confused reaction to infina's self-vote. Says he's prepared to hammer, but that he doesn't want to do so yet. Neutral.

Dark Loink - Part 2
Spoiler:
Dark Loink wrote:Well. Roleblocker is dead, but so is cop. :| So...alright night I guess, as godfather and miller now mean nothing. Although now...time to find scum the old fashioned way.
Big nose? Fine, this is the second page, so I can probably get a few people done.
First off-order of people voting for infinia:
1.(early one) Arduous
2.blackfuse51
3.Electric haze
4.infinia ( :? Still a bit confused at that)
5.Two fry
6.Philip
5. Unvote by infinia
6.meatyochre
7.infina
Well then.

Infinia was scum roleblocker, and Arduous was the cop.
I was hesitent to vote until I got back, I was gone that day. When I did come back, he was lynched.
I'm going to look at...<nyssa>. Why not.
So, <nyssa>'s posts:

<nyssa> wrote:Rightio, well, this is my first mafia game, but thankfully I'm familiar with the flavour and its a completely open set up, so that should help. As for comments, I'm not sure there's much to say as yet, but its interesting that we have a miller, I've never seen that role before, someone who comes up scum when they're actually town.
Role speculation about having a miller. First game with a miller, okay, this post would be said..as someone town or scum. Somewhat neutral.

<nyssa> wrote:
_infina_ wrote:The false cop problem is two-fold. No counter-claim, and a false cop can lead the town against one of its own, or off from another scum. A counter-claim will out the real cop to scum, and will allow the scum to nk the cop, if he is not the one lynched. Losing even 1 town is unacceptable, so the doc had better be good. I strive for perfection.

ninja'd x 2

Did you read Diablo Mafia. If you did, you would see why I am wary of cops. The first sentence was my condemning it. Someone claiming miller now will just lead to lynching them, and otherwise the cop would declare them scum for them to claim, opening the scum up a chance at a kill. And I was thinking more along the lines of the GF false claiming. Confirming miller? Are you serious? What if both non-GF scum claim miller? Did you think of that? I think you are the scum.

Vote:arduous


Look, the way it stands at the moment, the cop can't trust his own investigations, there's always the chance of him hitting the miller or the godfather, who's investigation results are reversed. So it's helpful to town for the miller to claim, then if we only have one claim, we know who the miller is and can effectively cop scum. If we have two claims, we pick one to lynch, and whatever happens we will end up knowing who the miller is (whether he's alive or not), having lynched a scum member and being able to trust any further investigations that come up scum. More than two claims would just be silly - even if we happen to lynch the real miller on the first night, we then know who the other two non-GF scum are. I don't think they would do that. Infina, I think you're protesting a lot. I also can't see a scenario in which we don't lose any town.
Also I managed to be ninja'd a lot by phlip. My argument runs the same, but his is better written :P.

First off, saying that miller claiming gives our cop less confusion, and keeps them from claimed when finding townie. Yeah. That makes sense. Infinia was being rather scummy then. Townieish post, although you could probably find somethings wrong with it.
<nyssa> wrote:Posting to say I'm also not the Miller. I'm pretty happy with believing Misnomer from the looks of it. And uh, if we're happy with the fact that he's the Miller, and we know the Miller is town, why would we lynch him? That makes no sense Infina. There will always be someone better to lynch, for a start, even just picking randomly we have a chance of hitting scum, whereas if we lynch the miller, we've just killed one of our own. Also, and I'll have to reread BigNose's posts to be sure, but he didn't ping me as seeming too scummy, to be honest. Infina, if he *is* a town power role, and scum hadn't picked up on it yet, you kinda just said "Woo scum look over here NK this one!". You do realise that what you write here can be read by everyone, right? And your 'fixed' version of that post doesn't look much better. At the moment a better person to lynch would be you. Even if you are town, and are just doing your usual dreadful D1 play, where you get yourself lynched and then turn up town, if the choice is between lynching the miller, who is confirmed town, and lynching you, who is possibly town and spreading wine, then I'm pretty happy to go with you.

Yeah. This post makes sesne, again. Going after infinia with...every reason to. Lynching a confirmed townie=a bad idea.
<nyssa> wrote:I..err...what? Honestly, a girl goes out for a few hours and misses all the action!
Dark Loink wrote:Anyways,
If we don't get answers, I'm going to hammer in a few hours. Because that will at least clear up something. But I will be gone for a few hours, then I can discuss more of what has happened. But the self vote is what caught my eye. I am now confused.
I really badly want to vote, this being my first game and all, but also because of that I want to hear as much explanation of scenarios and posts as possible. So I'd like to wait until Dark Loink is back so I can hear what he has to say. I'm not interested in anything Infina has to say anymore.
I was mainly seeing if infinia would give an agruement, explination, or something...but he didn't. This post is pretty much waiting, a few of us did that.

All in all, although I probably didn't look that hard, it is early, <nyssa> is seeming townie enough to me.

Spoiler tags removed. Posts the lynch order but doesn't draw any conclusions from it. Analyses nyssa and comes to the conclusion that she's townie, which is perhaps more generous than i would be but a fair enough conclusion none the less. Leaning town-ish.

Dark Loink wrote:And no posts...well, I'm having some trouble gettings reads on people, which isn't good for activity...infinia and ard were making the most posts. :| What may help with that? More analysis!

Big Nose:
BigNose wrote:[snip]


Good first post. First off he gives two views, and I suppose I understand the meta-game view, but the townie one is just a little more important. :wink: Then he mentions doctor, if he should protect misnomer. Was debatable, but they chose another target. If BN is scum however, then he is trying to throw the doctor off of the kill. This post can go both ways, really. So...neutralish.
BigNose wrote:[snip]
Saying that he thinks of, "what would scum do, and why?" I suppose that makes sense. If you haven't been scum, its a bit harder, but you can meta-game yourself to others. Neutral, kinda.

BigNose wrote:[snip]

Says that infinia is being like zerker with self voting himself. If he is scum, (WHICH HE BELEIVES)...wait. BN thought infinia was scum. And...didn't vote for him. :shock: Sure, I didn't vote for him either...but. I had no idea what infinia was doing. I've played one other game with him, and needed a response. That could be the explination, but still, it seems odd to me. Somewhat scummy now.
BigNose wrote:[snip]

...ok. So. BN doesn't want to vote again. Huh. Again, I find it hard to accuse him, because I did this, but still.
So...BN is somewhat scummy, in my opinion. Infinia was doing some distancing, but then again...he could be trying to do that, to make BN seem more scummy. But lets not get ahead of myself here. I've got 7 to go :shock:

Misnomer:
Misnomer wrote:[snip]
First post, after all of our miller discussion. This is a first post, and it makes sense. Mainly because the next one-
Misnomer wrote:[snip]

Starts off with misnomer claiming miller. Wow. But there have been no counter-claims, I believe him. He is probably townie, hence his protection.
Misnomer wrote:[snip]
This makes sense, and the last part helps explain part of the reason infinia was lynched (confirmed townie? We should lynch them) His miller talking, debating, and the way he understood it made sense-if this were a closed set-up, maybe we don't want to trust miller claims. Because there could be more than one, or none. But this is open. And he is a confirmed townie, I can see why he was protected. Also, this post leads on to the next person, TLC. But yeah, I think misnomer is townie. Only a counter-claim could really make me think otherwise at this point.

TLC:
tastelikecoke wrote:[snip]

Neutral post-but first post. I don't think I can get anything from this.
tastelikecoke wrote:[snip]

Maybe you can't go back in time. I however am a time-traveling monkey assassin.(For those of you who haven't read DNL, ignore this :P ) Alright then. So, first thing TLC talks about how we could get more pings if he hadn't claimed. I mean...I guess so, but all this really did was make someone who could be shown as scum trustworthy.
Also- what doesn't sit right with me is this part here
TLC wrote:Isn't keeping the miller alive an anti-town move? It provides a lot of wine.

I really don't think so. As people have said, lynching the miller gives you a 0% chance of getting scum. Besides, if scum we to claim, they would probably die sometime anyways. So this post definantly has enough parts to be scummy.

tastelikecoke wrote:[snip]

Wondering if infinia was trying to speak wine. A good possibility. Then talk of the miller, not too much. Then saying that lynching the miller is outrageous (did TLC forget that he said to do just that?) and saying the doctor shouldn't protect him...but then scum could realize this and kill him. So this post could go both.

tastelikecoke wrote:[snip]

I understand this post, I suppose. Defends pretty much what was said above.
In all, TLC is a bit scummy, but...I think this is a townie TLC, at least for now. Just a scummy townie.

Two-Fry:
Two-Fry wrote:[snip]

Yeah, this makes sense. If a cop finds someone as "mafia" then why not lynch them? If the miller doesn't claim, of course. He also says the roleblocker makes follow cop impossible-course, right now, follow the cop is impossible. However, this makes sense. Town, in my opinion.
Two-Fry wrote:I think having the miller claim is a good idea

Makes sense. Townie, because claiming D1 eliminates the wine that goes with being copped as well. Claiming later on is much harder to accept.
Two-Fry wrote:[snip]

Two-Fry explaining that we want a miller claim, with good enough reasoning. Townie, again. Although, scum would say this as well, maybe.

Two-Fry wrote:[snip]

Makes sense. Many people held an infinia vote for a while, and...we wanted to be sure of the misnomer thing. Townie enough, althogh everyone woh stalled the lynch a little (Yes, even me) has to realize that that could be a scumtell as well.
Two-Fry wrote:Actually, it's a 3/8 chance of hitting scum :p

Fractions! um...no, I am not going to get anything from this.

Two-Fry wrote:Okay then. Seeing as a miller counterclaim seems pretty unlikely at this point, I'll go ahead and
Vote: Infina
Can we get votals please?

Votes for infinia-this does not clear or condem him, I believe there were both scum as town on that bandwagon.
Two-Fry wrote:[snip]

Analysis is a good thing. Speaking your opinion is a good thing. But is done by both sides, so neutraltownie
All in all, however? Two-Fry is seeming townie to me.
There, four down, and four to go.

Quotes in quotes snipped for length, and broken quote tag fixed. Analysis is good, and this is certainly an analysis-heavy post. I'm a bit confused as to why I was analysed, as I was confirmed town by this point, but I suppose it couldn't hurt. He does find Two-Fry townie, which is possibly a scumtell - then again, two-fry hadn't really done much out of line at this point. Overall, leaning town.

Dark Loink wrote:
BigNose wrote:OK, A quick reposte as I have just got back:
Go read Diablo II

More hopefully tomorrow.

I will finish it, but is this a sort of defense? You were scum in that game. :P
But, I will read more than the roles in the game. Then I may understand what you are saying, and it will make sense.

Reply to BN's cryptic reposte. Not really much to be got from this. Neutral.

Dark Loink wrote::| So, three people being attacked. Two-fry the most, big nose a little, and TLC by two fry. Big nose I wasn't sure about, but I decided in my previous post that TLC and Two-Fry were townie. Reasons for Big Nose and Two Fry trace back to infina...
Now then. The first point we need to address, followed by others.
1.Infina was trying to spread wine:
This is pretty much a no-brainer. Although if he was trying only to survive, at the very least wine was being spilt in the process. Otherwise we wouldn't be having this conversation.
2.Infina was trying to help/bus a scumbuddy.
The reason is that this works two ways. If we assume that BN or Two-Fry were scumbuddies with infina, then if infina lynched one who was scum, guess what? That would give him a record, why would scum lynch scum D1? "That would be stupid, infina is obviously town."
And if it failed, and infina was lynched, there would probably be people who wouldn't think that he would FoS scumbuddies randomly. Therefore, they are safe.
But this is assuming that Two-Fry and/or BN are scum, which leads us to
3.Infina was trying to spread suspicion onto random townies:
Infina is sure to be lynched, he was acting a lot different than when he was scum ever. So, thinking fast, he decided to randomly throw suspicion onto someone he knew was a townie (everyone who he was told he wasn't working with) because now this person would not be able to be alive without wine, since Infina wasn't the godfather, so not even a COP could clear it all away. In fact, a town cop may lead to more suspicion. So Infina wanted wine that would last the rest of the game.

I'm not sure what I think is right. 1 is correct, but 2 and 3 conflict. I will think more about this (remember, both could be same, both could be different alingments.)
The main thing that scares me is the When you lynch me and I come up town arguement. Because that proves..nothing, because scum or town, you would say that.
And now sleep. Reasons not to post in mafia late at night.

Spells out the options surrounding infina's FOSs. Townie thing to analyse, though no solid conclusions. Also expresses concern about two-fry's line of argument. Leaning town.

And then, silence, until on Day 3...

Dark Loink wrote:MMMMMMMMMMMMOD PROD!!!
...
Alright, onto post things and such.

Misnomer wrote:
BigNose wrote:
<nyssa> wrote:Hello! I don't know what I'm going to post about either. Except that BigNose still seems scummy to me, and the fact that infina named him, as said before, seems scummy, and this game is going nowhere fast.


Exactly what reason do I seem scummy? You keep saying that I seem scummy and I have had a look back over your posts and the only reason I can determine that you consider me scum is that I have been named directly by Infina and Two-Fry, both of whom turned out to be scum.

Do you think scum would be that stupid/blatant/ballsy?


Well we know Infina probably would. As for two-fry, he wasn't pressing for your lynch until right near the end of d2 - before that he'd been going after a TLC lynch instead. It's not inconcievable that he only performed his u-turn and voted for you because he felt your miller-lynch had probably sealed your fate.

Yeah, but pressing a lynch right near the end of d2 on your last scumbuddy would be stupid. I mean, it would give said scumbuddy the arguement (would scum be that stupid?) when the fact is if BN was scum, he would be better off with no mention at all, then surrounding wine. The fact that only one scum is alive gives us some room to mis-lynch, and using that on a player that has wine would make sense. So why make them more noticeable then you have to? And the whole miller lynch thing was a mistake, whether B-N is town or scum. Neither one would do that on purpose, that doesn't really make for a good arguement. And infina naming BN, I can't really say, it could go either way.

Defends BN. This could potentially be scum trying to buddy up, but I doubt it. Fairly solid line of reasoning. Leaning town.

And then nothing. Again....


Conclusion: Dark Loink seems to be leaning town, despite being horrendously inactive.

Phlip also analysed DL early on D2, and came to the conclusion of neutral leaning town.

Will get phlip's and tlc's done later this evening.
moody7277 wrote:The role of SDK in this game will be played by Misnomer. [/soapopera]

User avatar
Misnomer
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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby Misnomer » Mon Sep 13, 2010 10:55 pm UTC

Analysis number three...

Phlip - Part 1
Spoiler:
phlip wrote:Posting quickly to get this into the egosearch... I'll post my thoughts on the role list later, when I get the chance to think about it.

Egosearch. Neutral.

phlip wrote:
_infina_ wrote:Someone claiming miller now will just lead to lynching them, and otherwise the cop would declare them scum for them to claim, opening the scum up a chance at a kill. And I was thinking more along the lines of the GF false claiming. Confirming miller? Are you serious? What if both non-GF scum claim miller? Did you think of that? I think you are the scum.

I made a similar mistake to this in my first newbie game... thinking "but what if the scum falseclaims and the real role doesn't claim?"... 'course, that was with actual power-roles, not a miller, and it was in the late game, but the principle's the same.

The point is that the miller wants the town to win, and doesn't have to survive to win. If a townie can do something to increase the chance of a town win, even at the expense of their own survival, it makes sense for them to do it. If everyone in the town agrees that a miller claim would be a good thing for town, then when the miller claims come in, one of them will be real. The possibility of "one of the scum claims miller but the real miller stays silent" is removed from the table because the miller wants the town to win, and staying silent (especially given the discussion saying that a miller claim would be good) would harm the town.
So if we only get one claim, it's going to be the miller... and we then have a confirmed townie, better chances of lynching and copping scum, and knowledge that if a cop result comes up scum then it's real - benefits all around (even if the miller is NKed, which they might be... on one hand, they're no power role, but on the other hand, they're a confirmed townie, which is harmful to scum in and of itself). And if we get multiple claims, then all the ones that aren't real will be scum, and we can lynch all the claimers (unless we happen to lynch the scum first, in which case the remaining claimer is the true miller)... in which case, we have a lynched scum member, and again know who the miller is (be they alive or dead) and be able to rely on cop scum results.

In short: I think a miller claim is good, and should happen D1, so the cop doesn't have a chance to waste investigations on someone who'll later claim anyway. But even if the discussion goes the other way, and we decide against miller claiming for whatever reason, then if, later, the scum does falseclaim, the real miller should counterclaim as soon as possible anyway, to clear up the mud.

I really think you're flying off the handle a bit much, infina... from what I understand, crazy behaviour is par for the course for you, so I'm not voting yet, but IGMEOY.

Supports the miller claim and quickly points out the flaws in infina's arguments. As infina had yet to self-destruct at this point, I'm going to call this townie.

phlip wrote:
_infina_ wrote:I must say, the miller may go against the wishes of the town and decide not to claim even if we want such a claim to happen.

But I don't see why they would... sure, they'd have a better chance of surviving in the short term by avoiding the lynch, but they'd be severely damaging the town's (and thus their own) chance of winning the whole game. The phrase "win the battle, lose the war" comes to mind.

I mean, it's not like the miller's going to be zerker, he's not even in this game.

Further demolition of infina's arguments. Leaning town.

phlip wrote:OK, so we have our miller claim, and so far everyone except meaty, nyssa and blackfuse have posted and not counter-claimed. Looks pretty good, though obviously we should wait for those three to also post before we trust anything.

infina is pinging me badly on pretty much every post he makes... I'm going to need to go through some of his other games to get a baseline for his natural scum-seeming-ness, and see if he's being any more scumtastic than normal... but pending that, major FoS.

On other notes:
arduous wrote:Hey, blackfuse81 is a friend of mine irl. He's tried posting a couple times but it tells him his post needs to get reviewed by a mod before it goes through. phlip, is there anything you can do to get his account unflagged or something?

I think the way it works is he'll be in that group until he makes a post in a forum which counts for postcount. The mod-review option applies to new users with a postcount of 0. Get him to make a post in ICT or something, and he should be fine.

meatyochre wrote:I also meant to ask, did the guards in the Spaceballs movie actually wear red shirts? I don't recall them, if so. Is it just a comical nod by Dr. Ug to Star Trek?

I watched my copy of Spaceballs again... looks like there are no Druish guards in the movie at all, red-shirted or otherwise. Very little of the movie takes place on Druidia anyway.

Second half of the post is irrevelvant. Makes a fair point about waiting to make sure that my claim is completely unchallenged before jumping to conclusions. Further attacks on infina, but that means little by this point. Leaning town.

phlip wrote:
meatyochre wrote:Yeah he won't be able to post until his first 2 posts have been mod-approved. recent change for new accounts to prevent overspamification :)

Not 2, just 1. But I think that, as ever, posts in FG don't count.

Irrelevant.

phlip wrote:
_infina_ wrote:Next, if I was scum, why would I continue to do things to make me stand out? The goal of scum is to hide, correct? I'm just a little to easy to find stuff in each post. Although, this would be my first time getting lynched for something I did. It might be fun. Lets try it.
Vote:_infina_

I... um... what? But... what?

Do I really need to go into details about how... exceptionally daft that idea is? In so many different ways? In just that quoted paragraph alone? Even leaving aside all the other exceptionally daft things you've done so far in the thread (which includes pretty much every daft idea in the book).

I think infina's unofficial votals there are right, so we're at hammer-3 now. [ninja-edit] With Two-Fry's we're at hammer-2 [/ninja-edit]. We're still waiting on blackfuse to post after the miller claim, and he hasn't posted much at all, because of the post approval thing, which will hopefully be sorted soon... I know in my first newbie game, D1 ended before I had a chance to do anything substantial at all... I'd rather not inflict the same thing on another new player... and I'll repeat what's been said by others: that this isn't a turbo game, and if the day's a bit longer before the vote finishes, we lose nothing.

So I won't vote just yet, if only blackfuse a chance to chip in. If it wasn't for that, my vote would definitely be on inf right now.

Stresses the importance of waiting for blackfuse to post, and urges people not to rush towards a lynch. Leaning town.

phlip wrote:That's good to know. Yay, sense of completion.

Well, that's the only real thing that was stopping me, so...
Vote: _infina_
(I believe that's Hammer - 1... next vote ends it all)

Votes after blakcfuse claims. Neutral.

phlip wrote:EBWOP: Did someone declare "everyone ninja phlip day" or something? Now the mod is getting in on the action...

Irrelevant.
Phlip - Part 2
Spoiler:
phlip wrote:Oh hi daytime, I didn't see you there.

So infina turned out to be scum to the surprise of noone, and we're minus the roleblocker and the cop. Not the best trade ever, losing the cop will hurt, but I think we're still ahead now. I'm too tired to figure out the actual numbers, but it feels like 1 for 1, even a power role, is a win, if less so than it could be.

In general it looks like most of day 1 was either infina trying to throw mud around and people calling infina for trying to throw mud around. While there's often some information to be gotten from how the votes fall when the scum is lynched, I don't think there's much there in this time... I'm not even sure I'd characterise the lynch as a bandwagon... the votes kept racking up not because they were convinced by other voters, but because they were convinced by infina's bad play.
But it seems we've already made it to the "pick people at random and analyse them to death" phase of the game, so I'll give it a shot. Random number generator picked DL, so I'll go through his.

Dark Loink wrote:Alright...I'd say we probably have a godfather, knowing the set-up. Dark Helmut would probably be some sort of...roleblocker of sorts. There are probably 6 vanil-
Yeah. So open set-up. This is my confirming, I don't really have much to comment on as of yet. But cool.

Contentless confirmation post with a touch of humour. Neutral.

Says he has nothing to say yet, implying he'll have more to say later.
Dark Loink wrote:Wow, thats a lot of posts. In...about 11 hours. Wow. Are you sure this isn't a turbo game? :P
Anyways, a lot of posts, which is good-something to comment on. Now here is my reaction to pretty much the entire game so far.

Millers: A problem, in basicly any game. That claim always comes with wine, and can not come without, unless only a godfather is left.
Follow the cop is not impossible-when the cop finds scum, or if the roleblocker is...dead. Then there should not be a problem, but still, there are such things as false claims. So, you always have to really pay attention and think about cop claims, because there is always a good chance of a false one. Yet there is a good chance of a real one as well.
_infina_ wrote:Is there a suggestion to follow the cop? I must warn you to be wary of any cop claims. I was NKed because of a false cop claim that I wanted to test. I disagree with having the miller claim. To much wine will follow. Just two miller claims will give the mafia enough time to pick off Yogurt and Lone Starr, leaving you with not much to go on.

Yeah. False cop claims happen. If we had cop claims from people, it get confusing, but interesting. But right on the next post

arduous wrote:[snip]

And now we have this. Infinia says he was night killed because of a false cop claim. Was he townie in that game? Because...trying to make cops seem scummy is not a good townie move. While I agreed with some of the points, this did seem a bit much like making the cop untrustworthy, in one of his first posts. :shock: So I can see why you think this is scummy.
_infina_ wrote:[snip]

OMGUS. Great. This opens discussion though...so my thoughts on this.
Again, he immidetly votes the guy who voted him. Not the towniest behavior...but infinia isn't the towniest person, far as I know.
If both scum claimed miller. I suppose it is possible. This post has good points but...
_infina_ wrote:[snip]

...Still uneasy, honestly. Saying he doesn't want this to be one of those D1 arguements...which is making him and arduous both being the townies who start arguing. Townies dieing are acceptable losses-as long as scum loses in the end. The point is not to survive, it is to kill the others. Keeping all of the townies alive is ideal, but a near impossible ideal. If we all worry about all townies surviving, then we won't take risks, in getting scum killed. Sometimes you need to die to prove a point, sometimes you being agressive lynches scum but makes you seem scummy. You can, but you have to accept the fact of townies dieing for a town win. But, anyways, on to the next one
phlip wrote:[snip]

wow. Big. This post makes sense, I agree with what he is saying, for the most part. Of course, infinia saying that both scum could claim is a possibity. But if both scum claim, the miller would claim too. Then we would have 3, and scum would be utterly screwed. So if that did happen, it would be a VERY good thing. We'd lose a townie and two scum. For a non-miller townie to claim miller would...not happen.
_infina_ wrote:[snip]

...was he really suggesting to lynch the miller D1? Really? After saying they shouldn't claim, now saying we can lynch them? Although the arguement is...somewhat sound. Scum could NOT use "I'm the miller, really!" As an excuse. Although right now I wouldn't suggest it. Unless we get multiple claims.

Misnomer wrote:[snip]

Well, here we are. Miller claimed. Again-if there is a miller, who is not misnomer, claim. I understand even scum may try to counter-claim, but then...we have maybe scum and a miller dead. Not the most bad trade.

And I'll look at some other posts later, but this has taken enough of my time for now.
Nested analysis quotes snipped for length to avoid recursion when this post inevitably itself gets quoted by someone else's analysis... I can just see that exploding horrifically.

A lot of stuff here... a touch on millers, but this was after all the discussion and the miller claim had already happened, so not much to say. A little bit on FTC too. Several posts of infina's trashed, which is entirely reasonable. Agrees with me on miller claiming, an action which I can't objectively rate without invoking some kind of anti-OMGUS. More infina-trashing. Finally, noting that the miller claim happened, and reiterating the call for a counterclaim if it was false.

I'm in two minds about this... on one hand, it's an entirely reasonable townie post, but on the other, suspecting infina rapidly transcended the townie/scummy axis and became merely "observant". But on the third hand, as I mentioned, that the post focused almost entirely on infina was hardly limited to this post, or just DL.

Says he's run out of time, implying he'll have more to say later.
Dark Loink wrote::| :o :?
_infina_ wrote:Next, if I was scum, why would I continue to do things to make me stand out? The goal of scum is to hide, correct? I'm just a little to easy to find stuff in each post. Although, this would be my first time getting lynched for something I did. It might be fun. Lets try it.
Vote:_infina_

That should make it
_infina_ - 4 (arduous, blackfuse81, ElectricHaze, _infina_)

what.
I...what.
If he were scum, a better idea would have been talking the others out of it...if he were town a better idea would have been the exact same thing.
I have no idea what this is. If it is some sort of ploy to make us afraid to lynch him because he is acting like this, um...I'm not sure what I want to do. Why would you do this as any faction ever?(jester aside, but then you made them afraid to lynch you.) Because having a facination with screwing up and getting lynched to the point of self lynch...
Why?

Anyways,
If we don't get answers, I'm going to hammer in a few hours. Because that will at least clear up something. But I will be gone for a few hours, then I can discuss more of what has happened. But the self vote is what caught my eye. I am now confused.

Reaction to infina's bizarre self-vote, and pretty much the only sane reaction to take - one of utter confusion.

Says he's short on time, saying he'll have more to say later.Finally This (it's directly above this post, I'm not going to quote it here).

Reasonable analysis of nyssa, which I'll agree with. Kinda shallow analysis, but I can't fault him for that, I'm doing the same in this very post. I'm not convinced there's really enough to work with for a thorough analysing yet.

Doesn't say he's out of time and will have more to say later, thus breaking with tradition.

All in all: neutral vaguely leaning town, but not really enough out there yet to call.

Incidentally, is the new thread subject a reference to anything? I don't recognise it from the movie...

Spoilers removed. Makes a reasonable point that the way the votes fell on Day1 might not be particularly meaningful due to infina's bad play. Solid analysis of DL. Leaning town.

phlip wrote:Oh, right, 'cause the deaths were Dark Helmet and Lone Star. Duh. Half-asleep-me is even less cluey than I thought.

Flavour post. Irrelevant.

phlip wrote:I'm guessing it's regarding the "revenge" comment... did infina do something to BN in that game?

Short response to BN referring people to the events of Diablo II. Not really much content, so neutral.

phlip wrote:So, looking at the player list, between DL and me we've analysed everyone still alive except meatyochre, blackfuse81, ElectricHaze and me. I'm not going to analyse myself, that would be dumb, and blackfuse81 hasn't really said anything of substance yet (though he's not in Newly Registered Users any more, so he shouldn't have any problems with posts needing approval)... so I'll do the other two.

So, first, EH:Day 1:
ElectricHaze wrote:Confirming. Just went on a 5 hour star craft 2 binge, tired now. Will post actual thoughts later.

Entirely reasonable - Starcraft 2 is awesome. I mean, that's why I didn't do this analysis all weekend, even though I was planning to. Other than that, contentless and neutral.

ElectricHaze (after EBWOP) wrote:Add me to the whole group of Miller claim supporters. Pros: Cop can trust his scum results, might out a scum if there is a false claim Cons: Slightly smaller pool of targets for our cop to hide in making it slightly more likely he could be hit by a random NK. The only other thing I can add here is that if the miller claims he should NOT be doctored. The miller is essentially a vanilla townie once he has claimed, and our doctor should not be tied up protecting him. Plus having the doctor protect someone else forces scum to make a decision to kill a "vanilla" town or possibly get their NK blocked trying to go after a power role.

2 things that pinged me a bit.
_infina_ wrote:We could always lynch the miller right away to prevent scum from using it as an excuse, but that is a town player down first thing. Not the best way to start a game, but could always be worse.


Infina has consistently shown some crazy logic, but I don't think I've seen him go crazy enough to think that purposely lynching a townie would be the correct move. So FoS: _infina_

Next:
BigNose wrote: From a Townie point of view, I can understand the reason to claim and can't condemn it.

Does this imply that you are not normally looking at things in this game from a townie point of view?
I don't normally consider these to be huge tells, but it could be a slip up so IGMEOY.

ninja'd:
well there's the claim, sorry for suggesting we leave you for the wolves by not doctoring you, but I think it would be in the best interests of the town.

(Note I've edited this quote according to the later EBWOP, to avoid confusion)

Good miller discussion, and doctor strategy. Nothing to complain about here.

Points the finger at infina, for being even more crazy than normal. I've already gone into why I think being suspicious of infina became mostly neutral, but this was still pretty early, I'm willing to call this town-leaning.

The BigNose thing was either a misspeak or a misread, and either way it was cleared up quickly with minimal wine-spilling, so I don't think there's much more to talk about here.

ElectricHaze wrote:
_infina_ wrote:Wow BN, if you're not scum, you just gave them a reason to pick you apart. Also, I noticed that OMGUS after I posted it. The power roles should not make themselves so noticeable, I have already got a good idea who you are. You don't want to be killed N1, now do you, and if I have noticed you, the scum won't take to long to catch on to you. There are three of them to pick up on the signs, they do not have just one vantage point to find you. I picked up on you not soon after the game started.


Let me summarize "BN it is a bad idea to make it obvious if you are a power role because you will be NKed. BN I THINK ITS QUITE OBVIOUS YOU ARE A POWER ROLE." First off, I don't know what you caught there, but I didn't catch any tells. Secondly, that post is amazingly anti town.

_infina_ wrote:My lynch the miller idea is if we have no better choice, and it gives the scum one less place to hide.


And you are still defending lynching a confirmed townie as a decent choice. I don't understand how scum could hide there or how this could ever be better than ANY other option.

Vote: _infina_
For the most confusing analysis ever(Aside from maybe TLC, no offense to you tlc, but you confuse the hell out of me), and making terribly anti town statements, and bad suggestions.

More infina-WTF-ery, and definitely getting into the time that it was getting neutral and unremarkable.

I'm not sure what the deal is with the TLC comment... is that a throwback to a previous game? Or maybe in reference to the miller discussion here? 'Cause that did seem a bit rambly and wasn't going anywhere...
But that's probably not especially relevant.

ElectricHaze wrote:
_infina_ wrote:Next, if I was scum, why would I continue to do things to make me stand out? The goal of scum is to hide, correct? I'm just a little to easy to find stuff in each post. Although, this would be my first time getting lynched for something I did. It might be fun. Lets try it.
Vote:_infina_


I am now 99% certain you are scum. This has been so different from your normal play it's obvious. Other than a retaliatory vote you haven't cast about nearly the amount of Votes/FoSes that you normally do. You haven't blatantly hinted about your role, or claimed even though you've done it as soon as you were FoSed or voted for in every game I've ever played with you in. Also your strats are just plain bad for the town, rather than just the usual not well thought out plans you normally give, plus you are sticking to them more tenaciously then you normally do when people explain to you why they are bad for the town.

If I could vote for you again I'd do it.

Some of the strongest infina-hate all day, and not without reason. Some decent meta-analysis of infina's usual playstyle (he's usually crazy, but his behaviour this game was a different kind of crazy, as well as being moreso). But I still think infina-hate is neutral - this could be townie being emphatic to get others to vote too, or it could be scum throwing the probably unsaveable infina under the bus.

Day 2:
ElectricHaze wrote:Hi all, Sorry I haven't posted in a bit. Things got kinda hectic. I just left my job in preparation for going back to school, went on a trip, and am preparing for a week long trip to Vegas...

Anyways, now that I have some free time I thought I should pop in and offer up some thoughts.
infina wrote:Unvote
FoS: BN, Two-Fry


I think this is probably the best piece of evidence we have so far. This move looked to me like he realized the lynch was coming so he tried to throw to throw out some wine and distance himself from his scumbuddies. I would guess that one of those is scum and one is town.
infina wrote:Wow BN, if you're not scum, you just gave them a reason to pick you apart. Also, I noticed that OMGUS after I posted it. The power roles should not make themselves so noticeable, I have already got a good idea who you are. You don't want to be killed N1, now do you, and if I have noticed you, the scum won't take to long to catch on to you. There are three of them to pick up on the signs, they do not have just one vantage point to find you. I picked up on you not soon after the game started. My lynch the miller idea is if we have no better choice, and it gives the scum one less place to hide. Right now it is just that, an idea that can be picked apart for discussion. The more discussion that goes on, the easier it becomes to pick out scum while losing fewer townies. I also like picking apart plans to see all the ways they can go wrong.


So infina mentions BN in this post. It seems to suggest he believed BN to be town... He goes on to post some more on BN and says he thinks some of his posts were scummy in some later posts. Possibly trying to set him up for a lynch today. I don't know.

He never mentions two-fry in any of his posts so the FoS on two-fry at the end looks a little suspicious to me. I see no reason for this FoS other than to try and give a team mate more cred.

The problem for me is both BN and two-fry seem pretty towny, and I haven't really felt any scum vibes from either of them, but I really feel like infina would try and put a scum mate in there to try and distance them from himself. So based on the fact that one of those FoSes is totally out of the blue.
FoS: two-fry

Trying to unravel the WIFOM... personally I'm never very good at this, so I tend to simply ignore everything the scum says... don't have it affect me one way or the other. Only way I can stay sane amongst the Sicilian reasoning. With that said, though, I think what he says has merit. But on the other hand, maybe it's the wine in front of you.

But still, that's not the point of this analysis thing, I'm looking at EH at the moment, not BN or 2F... and this post looks town to me.


All up: Looks town to me.

meatyochre:Day 1:
meatyochre wrote:It's curious to me that a miller and godfather are both included in a smallish game. They're both interesting roles and the flavor context explains well why the miller is not on the payroll and why the godfather was, at one point. But the way both roles seem to function is anti-town. Because the mafiaballs will be protected if either the miller or godfather get copped. Unfortunate.

It's pretty cool to be in a wide-open setup like this for a change; the couple games I've played were mostly closed. It gives vanilla town a lot more information on scum (and conversely, gives scum more information on town power roles--it's a double bladed sword!). However, we do lose the ability to role-spec, which is what tends to comprise a lot of D1 conversation. Here's hoping D1 isn't totally dead.

What else can we talk about, since we know roles already?

Some thinking on the effects of the miller and godfather, and concerns that D1 will be dead (D1 turned out to be fine, as it happened, it's D2 that's dead). All up, pretty neutral.

meatyochre wrote:I also meant to ask, did the guards in the Spaceballs movie actually wear red shirts? I don't recall them, if so. Is it just a comical nod by Dr. Ug to Star Trek?

Question on the flavour. Contentless, neutral.

meatyochre wrote:I agree that a miller claim would be prudent. As I stated in my earlier post, having both a miller and godfather up at the same time tends to hurt town because the cop is rendered impotent. GF would never claim, of course, so the only alternative to clear up some of this muddiness is a miller claim.

I do think that, considering this is a newbie game, assuming that the miller would be wholly rational and playing strictly to benefit town/win the game may be a stretch. Role-claiming paints a target on oneself to be NKd, and being killed on day one sucks if it's your first game. I know that in my first game (Diablo), I tried very, very hard not to die on the first day. I was scum (and a replacement) in that game, and I went so far as to try to bandwagon a lynch on a fellow scum with powers rather than be lynched myself (I had no powers), only because I really wanted the experience of playing the game. So I am familiar with the influence wanting to participate can have on rational behavior. Hopefully our miller is willing to put him/herself at risk by claiming, though. It makes sense that if Pizza were to claim, he/she'd be the best target for the doctor to protect at night. As long as the doc didn't get roleblocked.

So whoever is the doctor, ought to consider protecting the miller tonight.

Additionally, if Pizza does not make a legitimate miller claim soon, I imagine a scum will decide to false claim. Ergo, mud. So, if you're going to claim, Pizza, please do it asap!

Miller stuff. Some interesting stuff on convincing someone to take one for the team. Suggests the doctor should protect the miller, which is questionable, as it rarely helps for the doctor's strategy to be public knowledge, but as he explained later this was part of the same convince-them-to-take-the-fall thought.

Pushes the miller to claim quickly... which I'm not sure about. There was never any rush to get the miller to claim quickly... just quick enough to get the claim and any counterclaims or lack thereof in by the end of D1. And it's usually a scumtell to push for haste when there's no time pressure. But on the other hand, I'm not sure how the scum would benefit from pushing for an earlier miller claim.

meatyochre wrote:
arduous wrote:Hey, blackfuse81 is a friend of mine irl. He's tried posting a couple times but it tells him his post needs to get reviewed by a mod before it goes through. phlip, is there anything you can do to get his account unflagged or something?

Yeah he won't be able to post until his first 2 posts have been mod-approved. recent change for new accounts to prevent overspamification :)

I think that an infina lynch makes more sense than a miller lynch. We know with a high degree of certainty (in absence of a counterclaim) that the miller is town. Therefore, he shouldn't/won't be copped because the result would be known with a high degree of certainty.

We don't know whether infina is town (I also see that he's spreading wine already, this doesn't seem likely to change). Why would we lynch the miller when we could pick pretty much anyone else (even at random) and have a 1/11 chance of hitting scum? As opposed to a 0/11 chance by lynching the miller.

FoS: infina (for poor analysis from a statistical point of view, and continually pretending to know more than he does)

Sensibly saying we shouldn't lynch the almost-confirmed miller (at that point, we were still waiting on nyssa and blackfuse to not counterclaim), and some infina-fingering. Also, some questionable fractions. Minorly town... getting into the point where suspecting infina is neutral, and not lynching the confirmed townie really should've been obvious from the start.

meatyochre wrote:oh fkbeans, I guess I should have said 0/12 for the miller lynch.

statistical criticism irony :(

Continued questionable fractions. Contentless, neutral.

meatyochre wrote:
Two-Fry wrote:Actually, it's a 3/8 chance of hitting scum :p

ugh. thanks.

So! FoS: meatyochre for being bad at statistics. I need to take my own medicine, apparently.

(kidding, obviously)

Questionable fractions part 3. Humour, contentless, neutral.

meatyochre wrote:scumtells from infina, emphasis mine:
1)
Why don't you people seem to get that?

(Sounds like he is talking to "you town people" from an outside perspective.)
2) votes for himself because it will be "fun". Mud, wine, slime, pondscum. You're pinging my scumdar so hard already.
3) Claims that because he's doing things to stand out, he can't possibly be scum because scum would try to blend in better. Well, infina's playstyle has been exactly like this in every game, regardless of role.
4)
I may wear a red shirt, and as such expect to die, but revenge isn't for the town.

He's roleclaiming vanilla town here. Claiming is bad unless special circumstances (like all the miller jazz). Could be telling the truth, could be desperately trying to prevent a lynch on himself, could be scum. Inconclusive but still obnoxious.
5) Unvotes for himself. More pondscum.

vote: infina

This should take us to hammer -1 with his unvote. I have no problem with ending D1 sooner than expected. infina's all over the place and my scumdar is humming like mad.

Continued infina-hate. Again pushes for speed... and the hammer fell with the very next post. Given infina was scum, this couldn't be a "quick, vote for the bandwagon on the townie and don't think about it", but still... maybe trying to shut infina up if he was starting to give clues as to the other mafia members (as EH suspects he was)? But I'm probably reading too much into it.

Day 2:
meatyochre wrote:
tastelikecoke wrote:I'm still going to stand ground my original opinion:
TLC wrote:Isn't keeping the miller alive an anti-town move? It provides a lot of wine.

First, I'm not talking about lynching the miller, but staying alive.

and I was trying to question this:
meaty wrote:So whoever is the doctor, ought to consider protecting the miller tonight.

This instruction invalidates the strategy.
Also,
TLC wrote:But doctoring the miller wouldn't make sense. scum needs to NK the doctor and the cop, not the miller.

BigNose also had thoughts about this:
BigNose wrote:Should the Doctor save the Miller if he is the only claim? The Doctor should be aiming to save the cop, but at D1, that is an unlikely target, so probably for N1, Doctoring the single-claim Miller is probably correct.
The problem with that is that the scum now have a greater chance of getting the Doctor or Cop, as the Miller gets written off the NK list.
Certainly, if the scum claim Miller, then the real Miller MUST counter-claim and hope he avoids the lynch.

I really must ask why, does doctoring a miller better than doctoring anyone else. He's equal to a vanilla townie at most. Plus I don't think the mafia wants to kill the miller. He has no chance to block, special abilities or anything. Plus, because mafia now knows who is the miller, then they have 2/8 chance to get another power role. And since they have a nightkill, at Day 2 they have even more chance to get a power role (e.g. look at what happened today!) Why would they waste chances?

Anyway some of you would think this is mere hindsight, but I really, really believe that doctoring the miller wouldn't make sense at D1.

I suggested it because this is a newbie game and I thought it was more likely that a miller would claim if they thought they would be protected that night. Since claiming D1 paints a target on oneself for the mafia.

Explaining a previous post, bringing it from questionable to neutral in my eyes.


Summary: it's hard to get a read here, it's almost all neutral, with a couple of small scum pings and a couple of minor townie moments. I think it averages neutral to slightly-leaning-scum. Not in a big way, but still.

tl;dr version: ElectricHaze looks town; meatyochre, IGMEOY.

Spoiler tags removed. More solid analysis - the only potential issue arising from this post is that he seems to imply ignoring Infina's FOS of two-fry, but it's a very minor thing. Overall, leaning town.

phlip wrote:Speaking of slow posting, can we get a modprod on blackfuse? He hasn't posted anything in nearly a fortnight...

Requests a modprod. Is modprodding a towntell? I'd like to think that even though it's not directly in their interests to do so, scum would still want players to be at least slightly active, for the sake of gameplay. Lets just call this neutral.

phlip wrote:Yeah, that's basically what I was saying before: untangling the WIFOM is hard, guys. I don't really have any feel for how many levels up infina was thinking here. Which is, in itself, the point I guess.

I will say, though, that if it's your option 2, then I think it'd be Two-Fry over BigNose... EH's reasoning seems reasonable to me, plus 2F's last post pings me a little (nothing conclusive, but explicitly claiming town rubs me the wrong way, as does claiming BN is also town... there's only a few people who could be sure of BN's alignment, after all...). I do think we should be suspicious of anyone who thinks they know for sure how many layers of wine there was in infina's statement... since the scum would know whether he was pointing at other scum or not, but the best the town can do is informed guesses. Even EH, who's the biggest proponent of your option 2 was mostly talking in terms if "it's probably this" or "it could be that"... 2F seems to be sure it's your option 3. Of course, he knows his own alignment, but if he's town he should be as unsure of BN's alignment as the rest of us.

But as I said, that's all if it's option 2... I'm not convinced it can't be option 3 yet. I'll need to watch a bit longer before I vote. But I am leaning towards a vote for 2F...

Could be seen as trying to steer people away from examining infina's FOS. Throws attention onto two-fry however, which would be an odd move by scum at this point. Of course, this itself could be distancing, but then you descend into massive levels of WIFOM, which would incidentally justify his claim that WIFOM is hard to unravel. This post could go either way, so neutral.

phlip wrote:Huh? No. You and the scum know your alignment... that's true whether you're scum or not. I was trying to insinuate that 2F was scum, not you.

Clarification of his argument. Uses the word insinuate, which is quickly picked up by BN...
phlip wrote:
BigNose wrote:PS Scum insinuate, Town state with reasons.

Yeah, I know. At the time I didn't think I was being that obscure. Sorry if that wasn't the case.

But I don't think it amounts to much. BN had accused phlip of insinuating against him, and I think it's likely that phlips use of the word was just echoing him. That said, this bit can only really be seen as neutral at best.

phlip wrote:Yeah, I thought that was pretty well established by now.

What's with you, BN? First you get all OMGUS about a misreading of something I wrote, and now this... you're being very reactionary of late. And in the same post as saying we should be calm and considered, even.

Voices concern over BN's vote against me. Again, a post that could go either way, especially as we're not currently sure of BN's alignment. This could be a subtle attempt at pushing others towards a BN lynch, but at the same time the lack of a vote could be down to a desire not to rush into anything. I'm really not sure about this post. It's possibly the scummiest of his so far - but as the rest of his posts have all been fairly townie, that's not saying much. Leaning slightly on the scummy side of neutral, at worst.

phlip wrote:OK, well that's... different.

Very little content, probably neutral.

phlip wrote:Quick thoughts: Like EH said, infina's final FoS was probably one town and one scum... I don't think even infina would go so far as to name both scummates in there... which would let BN off the hook. Though, of course, you can never be sure.

I'll have a look through 2F's stuff later today if noone beats me to it, see if I can find anything useful in there... but like I said before, I'm not the best at cutting through the wine, 'cause it's all liquid and tends to just slosh around the knife. Or something. I think I had a point with that metaphor, but I've forgotten what it is now.
Philp - Part 3
Spoiler:
Defends BN. Casts further doubt on the usefulness of continued study of infina's wine, but by this point that can no longer be seen as a scumtell, as it would imply that Bn is scum which would mean that phlip isn't. Neutral leaning towards town.

phlip wrote:OK, so reading through Two-Fry's history, I've come up with a bunch of options. Given my continually-mentioned inability reading the wine, this will inevitably end up listing everyone as being possible, depending on who the poisoned wine is in front of... but maybe enumerating them will help others figure out which is more likely.

Now, the first thing 2F did on Day 2 is to try to start a bandwagon going on TLC. Noone jumped on, but still. I'm thinking he saw infina's FoS, and wanted to throw suspicion away from himself. Could just be a random he thought he could pin something on, but could be an attempt to throw a teammate under the bus to save himself. Which wouldn't be the smartest of moves, given TLC up to then hadn't been suspected, but sure.

Alternatively, he also tried to defend BN (as part of defending himself), and then later turned it around and jumped on BN's bandwagon. I said before that I doubt even infina would name both his scummates in the same FoS there, but if he did then this could be an attempt to save both his teammate and himself, followed by an attempt at bussing.

However, the third option is that it's someone else. Which sounds unhelpful, but my thinking is that he saw the effects of infina naming a teammate in what he probably thought was a helpful way, and it backfiring. So he might have overreacted and not talked about his teammate at all. He even says as much explicitly on his way out:
Two-Fry wrote:I don't want to accidentally finger my scumbuddy, do I?

So of the remaining players, meaty (and cf), DL and myself he doesn't mention by name at all; blackfuse he only mentions in passing asking for a replacement; nyssa and Misnomer he mentions in passing (though Misnomer obviously doesn't count, being confirmed town). Which is everyone still alive. All of which would fit with intentionally trying to avoid talking about their partner.

So... yeah. Hopefully enumerating it all helps someone who hasn't stayed up until half past 2 in the morning work through their thoughts on the situation.
Runs through two-fry's behaviour, and their various winey consequences. Interesting theory that two-fry might have deliberately avoided mentioning his partner. Useful discussion for town to consider, but no solid conclusions. Neutral leaning town.

phlip wrote:More OMGUS, BN? Like I said before, you're being very reactionary... First you completely misread something I said as implying you're scum (and I'm still not sure how you managed that) and immediately OMGUS-FoS. Then you vote for the confirmed townie (which I can accept must be a mistake - even scum would never intentionally vote for the confirmed town, there's no way they'd be able to start a bandwagon there), explicitly doing so before actually analysing them properly. Because apparently you were in a big rush to point out that only the scum rush into things. And now an OMGUS-vote against someone just for calling you on the other stuff.

The more I think about all of this, the more it just feels scummy. The paranoid misread could easily happen if you're so heavily on the lookout for things that might be painting you as scum that you overreact to something that isn't doing that at all. Certainly not the only way it could happen, but the only one that comes to mind. Then rushing into a vote in the same post as saying that rushing is a scumtell speaks for itself. Of course, the paranoia is itself a scumtell... not that townies can't themselves be paranoid, but being scum has got to be more paranoia-inducing... so TLC pointing that out triggered the same immediate overreaction as the misread of my post.

I'm not going to claim it's a sure thing, but it does ping me in the extreme. Enough to be stronger than my previous doubts that infina's FoS would name both his teammates. And so:
Vote: BigNose

A complete reversal of his position towards BN. Surprise u-turns are oftena scumtell, although his argument that BN is showing signs of paranoia is not without merit. Neutral leaning scum.

phlip wrote:Re the modprod: what's the best way to say that I don't have anything to say? I was hoping that moving on to actually voting would bring out some more activity, but that hasn't happened (indeed, BN is explicitly not responding to it, so we've actually lost activity...). I mean, I could go post more analyses of stuff that happened in D1 or whatever, but that's all been done to death, it wouldn't bring in anything new, and (more importantly) it probably wouldn't start the discussion going again.

Also, LL: sorry about the jargon overload... if you're not familiar with a term, feel free to ask, and we'll clue you in...

Modprodded. Expresses concern about how discussion has died out, though that's not really a towntell by this point. Neutral.


And at this point, I am struggling to keep my eyes open. I don't think there's much point in me continuing this analysis while I'm so sleepy, so I'll put off the final bit until tomorrow, when I'll do TLC's as well.
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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby Misnomer » Tue Sep 14, 2010 8:42 am UTC

Phlip - Part 3.5
Spoiler:
phlip wrote:Gah, thread is still dragging...

In the hopes of sparking discussion again, I'll bring up the possibility of the doctor claiming. Spoilered for long and rambly...

Now, since we're down to just one scum, if we get two doctor claims before LYLO, then the town will win just by lynching both of them... even if we get the doctor first, we'd win. And if we get two doctor claims at LYLO, then we'll have narrowed down the list of lynch candidates from 3 or 4 down to 2. So if we get a false claim, the doctor should definitely counterclaim - it'll either be a town win, or at least a town advantage. So I think it's unlikely we'll see the scum falseclaim doctor... it gives too much of an advantage to the town.

Similarly, if the doctor is about to be lynched before LYLO, they should claim... if there's a counterclaim, town wins, and if not, then we can redirect the lynch. The doctor will still probably get NKed that night, but if they didn't claim then they'd be dead anyway, and we get another shot at lynching the scum (the deaths that day/night would be the doctor + another lynch target, rather than the doctor + another townie from NK). It's not as huge an advantage as the ability to force a win, but it's still an advantage. If the doctor's about to be lynched at LYLO, then they should definitely claim, as if they're lynched it's game over. Since that's what LYLO means.

The other thing to look at is whether the doctor should claim unprovoked. If we get to LYLO with 3 people left alive (which could happen D5, if we lynch two townies, CF gets modkilled, and two NKs get through) then the doctor should definitely claim... the power isn't that useful at that point, and whether there's a counterclaim or not, we'll have narrowed the field down to 2 from 3 (either the 2 that claim doctor or the 2 that don't, depending on whether there's a counter). So if we get to this point and still have the doctor, they should claim.

If we get to LYLO with 4, then if there's 2 doctor claims, we'll have a 1 in 2 possibility of hitting scum, and a 1 in 2 possibility of hitting the doctor, in which case we've lost. This is the best case, but probably won't happen. If the doctor claims and there's no counterclaim, we'll have a 1 in 3 possibility of hitting scum, and if we miss, then the doctor will be NKed and we've lost.
If the doctor doesn't claim, then we'll have a 1 in 4 possibility of hitting scum, a 1 in 4 chance of hitting the doctor, and a 1 in 2 chance of hitting a vanilla townie... and if we hit the vanilla townie then there's a 1 in 3 chance of a successful doctoring that night, in which case we'll be at the 3-people case, so the doctor should claim and it's down to a 1 in 2 chance of winning. If we assume random playing, then this happens to also add up to a 1/3 chance of winning for the town (1/4 + 1/2*1/3*1/2 = 1/3), so in the absence of a scum falseclaim, it's 1/3 either way regardless of what the doctor does.
So whether the doctor should claim or not depends on our abilities to do better than random chance... if we think we've got a reasonable chance of hitting scum that day, or of the doctor avoiding being killed that night and successfully protecting the NK target, then the doctor should stay silent... but if the doctor is reasonably visible and might be likely to be NKed that night, then they should claim.

As an aside, this means that town has a better chance of winning on a day with 3 players than a day with 4... so if it's night and there's 4 players left alive, the doctor shouldn't protect anyone... if the scum targets the doctor then it's moot, and if they target a vanilla townie, then we want it to go through... then we have a 1/2 chance of winning, not 1/3.

At 5 players left, a falseclaim means a town win, so we probably won't get one. If the doctor claims, we'd have a 1/4 chance of lynching scum... if we miss, scum will probably NK the doctor, and we'll be down to 3, with no doctor (meaning no confirmed townies) and a 1/3 chance to win. Total chance of winning: 1/2. Alternatively, the scum could not NK at all, and we'll be down to 4 with a confirmed doctor... which is also a 1/3 chance of winning that day, and the town has another player to confer with. So that probably won't happen.
Alternatively, the doctor could not claim. Then, we have a 1/5 chance of lynching scum, 1/5 of lynching the doctor (and ending up at 3-player with no doctor), and a 3/5 chance of lynching town (in which case, as discussed, the doctor should protect noone, and there's a 1/3 chance of the doctor getting NKed and we're at 3-player no-doctor, and a 2/3 chance of ending up at 3-player with doctor, who'd claim and give us a 1/2 chance to win). Add all that up and that's a 53% chance of winning... which is a very slight advantage. So the doctor probably shouldn't claim, but it's close enough to be situational based on what the real probabilities are... if the doctor is being obvious and has a good chance of being NKed, they should still claim, for instance.

We have a much better chance of winning with 5 players than 4, mostly by virtue of not being LYLO, so if it's night with 5 players left, the doctor should definitely try to protect someone as usual.

At 6 players left, if the doctor claims, we have a 1/5 chance of lynching scum, or 4/5 chance of lynching town, then doctor will be NKed and we'll be 4-players LYLO (1/4 chance of winning). Total chance of winning = 2/5.
If the doctor doesn't claim, we have 1/6 chance of winning, 1/6 chance of lynching the doctor (and we'll be at 4-players LYLO), 4/6 chance of lynching vanilla town, then there's 1/4 chance of the doctor being NKed and we'll be at 4-players LYLO, 1/4 chance of the doctor protecting (we'll be at 5 players, for which our chance of winning is about 1/2) and 2/4 chance of losing a townie (we'll be at 4 players, for which our chance of winning is 1/3). Total chance of winning = 44%. Again, slight advantage to not claiming.

Now, again, we have a better chance of winning with 5 players than 6... so if it's night with 6 players, the doctor shouldn't protect anyone.

At 7 players left, which is effectively where we are now unless CF returns, if the doctor claims, we have 1/6 chance of lynching scum, or 5/6 chance of lynching town, which will end up at 5-players no doctor, which has a 1/5+4/5*1/3 = 46% chance of winning, for a total chance of winning of 55%.
If the doctor doesn't claim, we have a 1/7 chance of lynching scum, 1/7 chance of lynching doctor (which'll end up with the same 46% chance of winning), 5/7 chance of lynching vanilla townie, which will then have a 1/5 chance of NKing doctor (again, 46%), 4/5 chance of hitting one of the vanilla townies (which the doctor won't be protecting, as mentioned) which'll put us at 5 players with a still-alive doctor, which is about 1/2 chance of winning. Total chance of winning is 56%. Very slim advantage to not claiming.
tl;dr: If the scum claims doctor, the doctor should definitely counterclaim. If the doctor is about to be lynched, then they should claim... and if there's no counterclaim, we should trust it and not lynch them. If we get to LYLO with 3 players, the doctor should claim regardless... on any day with 4 or more players it should be up to the doctor's discretion (if we get to LYLO with 4, it's equal chance either way, otherwise there's a slim advantage to not claiming, but if the situation warrants it, say if the doctor thinks the scum might know who the doctor is, then that could easily be enough to tip the scales).
Also, from now on, if it's night and there's an even number of players alive, the doctor shouldn't try to protect anyone, as we have a better chance of winning with an odd number of players, even if that means there's less of us. But it's worth discussing whether that's a big enough advantage to offset losing another player to discuss with for the lynch... especially 5-players vs 6-players, where the advantage is only 53% vs 44%.

[pre-post edit] Looking back, while I started being careful with wording it as "we have to find the scum among n players" instead of "we have a 1/n chance of lynching scum"... but slipped up with that pretty quickly. To be clear, every time I mention a probability, that's always assuming we play randomly... the real probability depends on how visible the scum and doctor are, and how likely they are to be spotted.

A nice chunky theory post. Phlip works through the numbers well (albeit with errors, as he later admits) and only solidly calls for doctor to claim in the event of a flaseclaim or an impending lynch against them, a strategy which I agree with. I suppose it could possibly be scum fishing for clues as to the doctors identity, but overall I think this post is leaning town.

phlip wrote:EBWOP: Crap, just realised I forgot to take our confirmed miller into account for all those probability calculations... that could change things. Gah, and it was complicated enough already. Well I'm not doing that all again with the miller in there... it'd be too much, probably would be even less illuminating, and anyway, the results would depend on the scum's strategy, whether they want to NK the miller or not (which can't really be modelled by random chance).

I still think the results would be similar, though... a slim advantage to the doctor staying silent almost all the way to the end, but close enough to be drowned out by the situation. That the doctor should counter a false claim, and claim if they're about to be lynched, still holds. I'm not certain about the not-protecting-anyone-if-there's-an-even-number part, I'd have to look at that one more in-depth to see if it still holds with the miller in the mix... but I don't have the time to do that right now.

States his mistake, and complains that the mller factor makes it harder to model. Neutral.

phlip wrote:
<nyssa> wrote:Perhaps the people who thought Meaty was a bit scummy (iirc phlip and Misnomer) could say why

Looking back at my analysis, it was based mostly off a couple of instances of meaty seeming to push for haste when it wasn't necessary... but both in very minor cases, and both in cases where the action they were pushing for was good for town (miller claiming, lynching infina). Possibly enough to warrant keeping an eye on, but not much more than that.

Ultimately, if they're going to be modkilled anyway, it's probably not worth worrying about... if the scum is going to be modkilled then the game's already over, so we should focus on the people who are still playing until/unless some replacements show up.

Makes the case that we should not be lynching inactives at this point. Leaning town.

phlip wrote:... well, crap.

Well, true to what I was saying before, we've got no reason not to trust the claim for now, sans counterclaim, so:
Unvote: BigNose

Noting that this puts us back to looking at no-lynch at the deadline.

There's only, what, 18 hours to deadline, which isn't really enough time to establish the lack of a counterclaim, so if BN survives the night we should definitely be a bit wary, but even then, if there's no counterclaim, we should trust it.

I'm way too tired right now to do some analysis to see who to vote for next... I suspect random lynch is better than no lynch, but whoever it is we lynch today, we'd have to work quickly. Tomorrow, when I'm awake, I'll have a look at TLC, see if there's something there. I don't trust myself to do any decent analysing right now given I should've been in bed several hours ago.

But even no lynch and BN NK'd as the doctor is still better than BN lynched as the doctor and someone else NK'd, so the claim was the right move even with the deadline.

Removes his lynch from BN, which again can't really be considered a twontell at this point, as it would be suicide not to do so. One thing that pings me is that he seems almost resigned to a no lynch in this post - and no lynch is definitely not in the interests of town. Possibly slightly scummy.

phlip wrote:
Misnomer wrote:Phlip and Nyssa, as you've both posted I'm assuming you're not counter-claiming?

Correct. In my case, at least.

Misnomer wrote:Because we need to make sure that there is a lynch today. TLC is easily the next best candidate for lynching - and I think i'm right in saying my vote gives TLC enough for a soft-lynch at the deadline. DON'T cast a hammer - we need to keep the day lasting as long as possible, in the hope that some of our inactives post.

I agree with pretty much all of that. So absent another lynch candidate showing up, or everyone posting and not counterclaiming, both of which seem unlikely at this point, I probably won't cast a vote today.

Confirms he's not counter-claiming, and agrees with not hammering. Neutral leaning town.


Conclusion: I got one or two scum pings from Phlip, but otherwise he's behaving reasonably townie. Neutral leaning town.

Looking back, I think the only other person to analyse him was.... me. :| I analysed him in the middle of D2, and came to the same conclusion then as I have now - neutral leaning town.

Just TLC left to do now, which is quite frankly a terrifying task. I won't be changing my vote away from TLC until then, barring a counter-claim or an incoming replacement. But at this stage I am warming up to a Nyssa lynch.
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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby phlip » Tue Sep 14, 2010 9:24 am UTC

Misnomer wrote:One thing that pings me is that he seems almost resigned to a no lynch in this post - and no lynch is definitely not in the interests of town. Possibly slightly scummy.

Well, it was more that the deadline was very imminent, and no lynch is better than a doctor lynch. And given the activity of the thread at the time (or lack thereof), I wasn't sure if we'd be able to get up to soft-lynch on anyone else before the end of the day (though it turns out I needn't have worried... by the time I got up the next morning there was already another soft-lynch ready and a request for holding off on bandwagoning... so yeah).

The comment was more in the vein of... even the worst case for the day from that point, a no-lynch caused by the impending deadline, would be better than what would have happened without the claim, which was a lynch of the doctor. So BN claiming was the right move, however the day ended up.

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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby Misnomer » Tue Sep 14, 2010 3:40 pm UTC

And finally, my analysis of TLC...

Tastelikecoke - All in one section because I forgot to split it as I was going along...
Spoiler:
tastelikecoke wrote:I'll read this whole block of texts in a later moment. But I guess it's a free time so wait for me!

Checking in to say "I'm here" post. No idea what he means by the second bit, Already slightly confusing, but probably neutral.

tastelikecoke wrote:I don't know about your claim Misnomer, We could had had a little D1 chat first before roleclaiming, so pings of scum might have been clearer. But we can't go back in time can we?



So arduous and infina argued with each other, and Bignose had probably said everything about miller claims. I think the miller should claim. I don't know what will we do after that.
Isn't keeping the miller alive an anti-town move? It provides a lot of wine.
We could just ignore the miller and hope that the miller acts townie enough so he isn't copped. It's good meta-game-wise too.

Anyway that's some thoughts for me.

From the way the post is structured, I'm guessing his reponse to my claim was written after the latter bit - although my claim was made a good hour ro so before his post, so it would be a very slow ninja. The point about the miller claim perhaps coming a bit too early is a valid one. He seems to assume that the miller won't claim however, which is an odd assumption to make, and could perhaps be seen as very gently pushing for the miller not to claim - although he also explicitly states that the miller should claim. Very confusing. The real eye-catcher in this bit is "Isn't keeping the miller alive an anti-town move? It provides a lot of wine." which is so enfuriatingly ambiguous. It could be a simple statement that mafia are unlikely to kill the miller, or it could be supporting infina's miller lynch. This post really could go either way, but I think it's balancing on the scummy side of neutral.

tastelikecoke wrote:Self-voting is suicide for most of the time. Infina's self vote is interesting though.

infina wrote:Next, if I was scum, why would I continue to do things to make me stand out? The goal of scum is to hide, correct? I'm just a little to easy to find stuff in each post. Although, this would be my first time getting lynched for something I did. It might be fun. Lets try it.
I dunno, Is this infina's attempt to spread wine? Infina's defenses are too obnoxious to sound townie.

Some late response:
Misnomer wrote:Mea culpa. The impression I got from past games was that a Miller either needs to claim early on the first day or not claim at all. And since there seemed to be such an early clamour for the Miller to reveal, I thought I'd best do so.

This is my first time playing with a miller, so I'll appreciate that wisdom.

Misnomer wrote:Surely lynching a player on the town's side is more of an anti-town move? :P

Of course lynching the miller is outrageous. But doctoring the miller wouldn't make sense. scum needs to NK the doctor and the cop, not the miller.

Points out the infina is deploying WIFOm as a defence, which is almost always a scumtell. The use of "interesting" is interesting though - I know there's a school of thought which says that short posts expressing surprise at a situation often come from scum, but I'm not sure how relaible that is and at any rate, this doesn't neatly fall into that category. TLC now argues that his earlier comments on keeping the miller alive are criticism of the idea that the doctor should protect the Miller. I'm not sure I believe this, but at any rate the argument he's putting forward in this post is a fairly reasonable one. Neutral leaning town.

quote="tastelikecoke"]Defense of me.
Is it really bad to switch to ideas? Vote-hopping is a scumtell, but ideahopping.
Two-Fry wrote:Another just plain incorrect statement. Like arduous said, the doctor should protect whoever they think is most likely to be NK'd, and the miller was a good guess because scum do want the miller deadSlightly Scummy

I get some explanation, but if arduous said to the doctor that they should protect the miller, then the mafia won't NK the miller since town's going to protect him. Mafia would at most try to kill cop or doctor. Killing a miller isn't really better than NKing vanilla towns.

Two-Fry wrote:The first line appears to suggest that the self vote was not Scummy? It looked pretty scummy to me, and everyone else. Slightly Scummy

I thought that self-vote is like his last act to act zerker-like townie. I haven't been reading this days since next day is final exams day.

I hope you even consider this defense since I won't be able to this week.

I really hate how I always post in mafia just to defend my posts. I guess bad players won't enjoy mafia well.[/quote]
Defend's himself from two-fry's attacks. He's wrong to claim that killing the miller is no better than killing vanilla town, as miller has extra usefulness as confirmed town. As for his claim that he assummed infina was trying to behave like Zerker, this really throws me - it's bizarre, but I'm not sure it constitutes a scumtell. Deploys a "don't lynch me I'm not very good at this" defence, which I always suspicous of. Leaning scum.

tastelikecoke wrote:I'm still going to stand ground my original opinion:
TLC wrote:Isn't keeping the miller alive an anti-town move? It provides a lot of wine.

First, I'm not talking about lynching the miller, but staying alive.

and I was trying to question this:
meaty wrote:So whoever is the doctor, ought to consider protecting the miller tonight.

This instruction invalidates the strategy.
Also,
TLC wrote:But doctoring the miller wouldn't make sense. scum needs to NK the doctor and the cop, not the miller.

BigNose also had thoughts about this:
BigNose wrote:Should the Doctor save the Miller if he is the only claim? The Doctor should be aiming to save the cop, but at D1, that is an unlikely target, so probably for N1, Doctoring the single-claim Miller is probably correct.
The problem with that is that the scum now have a greater chance of getting the Doctor or Cop, as the Miller gets written off the NK list.
Certainly, if the scum claim Miller, then the real Miller MUST counter-claim and hope he avoids the lynch.

I really must ask why, does doctoring a miller better than doctoring anyone else. He's equal to a vanilla townie at most. Plus I don't think the mafia wants to kill the miller. He has no chance to block, special abilities or anything. Plus, because mafia now knows who is the miller, then they have 2/8 chance to get another power role. And since they have a nightkill, at Day 2 they have even more chance to get a power role (e.g. look at what happened today!) Why would they waste chances?

Anyway some of you would think this is mere hindsight, but I really, really believe that doctoring the miller wouldn't make sense at D1.

Posts a further defence against two-fry's assault (despite saying he wouldn't be around to post?). Cotinues to insist that there is no advantage for scum to kill the miller, which is a potential scumtell in two ways - on the one hand, it's promoting a suspect argument, but perhaps more significantly, if TLC were scum and genuinely believed this, it might explain why I'm still alive). Then again, it coud just be confusion. Leaning scummy.

tastelikecoke wrote:
I think the reasoning here is pretty weak. Infina was just throwing out wine left and right, and I don't think we should lynch based on that when TLC was actually acting scummy.

Two-fry, that's the last straw, man. Last straw man. You keep dismissing everything I posted as a scumtell. And no, you didn't even consider my last post that is supposed to be my defense. (in fact, only meaty seems to have noticed it. EDIT: Bignose also did.)

Vote: Two-fry

Votes for two-fry. The whole tlc/two-fry antagonism on this day is classic wine - would scum try to distance themselves or not? It's another headache which I will try to address in the conclusion. As for the post itself though, neutral.

tastelikecoke wrote:I thought this game would be very fast because of D1. Everyone totally become indecisive at the start of D2. Taking too long to lynch only lead us to misaligned conclusions. (being very quick is another case, but that's not my point.) Secondly, we never even reached page 4 yet. are you people still alive?

Complains that things are slowing down. Neutral.

tastelikecoke wrote:Uhh... so where are we going here?

SO the godfather and the goon are the ones left. Without the cop the godfather's power is trivial now. The miller's also trivial. The only step to take is to find scum with ordinary townie methods. Also, the doctor have no power roles to protect anymore doesn't have an obligation to protect the miller, or any other townie, so the doctor just needs to avoid protecting protecting scum, or at least protect those people likely to get Nk'd. The situation is sleazy simple. The problem is we can't concur who are scum, so we are 3 votes far from the lynch.

Doesn't deal with BN voting for me directly. Continues to argue that the miller is trivial, with all the potential scumminess that goes with that. Exactly how this situation is sleazy is beyond me, so I'll skip over that and call this another neutral leaning scum.

tastelikecoke wrote:Okay, Two-Fry shook my ground there for a second, but then again voting Big Nose isn't really a good excuse.

I don't see anything wrong with Bignose, except for the mistake he made. He haven't given any clues either. Totally being oblivious to the fact (or acting so) that Misnomer is miller isn't helpful to either town or mafia.

Defends BN fro twp-fry, which would be an odd thing for scum to do at this point. I completely fail to understand the first sentence, but nothing particularly scummy jumps out. Neutral.

tastelikecoke wrote:
EH wrote:English is not his first language.
True, but I'm not far from fluent to it, because we are taught of English since Grade 1. I just can't voice my opinion easily as you do.

EH's analysis pretty much explains my suspicions too.

First part irrelevant to the game, but goes some way to explaining the confusion his posts sometimes produce. Jumps onto EH's analysis, though I'm not sure that's a tell in either direction. Neutral.

tastelikecoke wrote:Yay. Finally this day's about to end.

Sentiments shared by all of us. Neutral.

tastelikecoke wrote:
Legologos wrote:tastelikecoke - flagged as scummy but avoided the lynch.

I've been flagged scummy by scum very strongly.

BigNose wrote:TLC just as an aid:

Goddammit. this is probably why I get very low grades at English. English is not my speaking language. That'll probably explain everything.

Second part irrelevant. First part is a bit of a winey self-defence. Slightly leaning scum.

tastelikecoke wrote:
phlip wrote:I'm thinking he saw infina's FoS, and wanted to throw suspicion away from himself. Could just be a random he thought he could pin something on, but could be an attempt to throw a teammate under the bus to save himself. Which wouldn't be the smartest of moves, given TLC up to then hadn't been suspected, but sure.

I saw this too, Two-fry is very sharp. Voting me would throw off the suspicion that two-fry scumbussed me. This makes me a suspicious player for the rest of the game, and I can't defend in this situation.

But it wouldn't be the smartest of moves to put suspicion off a scumbuddy that haven't been suspected by the other players.

My theory is two-fry pointed fingers at me because I'm very easy to be flagged as scum, based on my other games of mafia.

Let's consider BigNose, he said they could also be both town. Two-fry is scum, so wouldn't this mean BigNose is trying to protect Two-fry? Scummy move for Bignose. He defends Two-fry further:
BN wrote:ANALYSIS: Two-Fry
(spoilered analysis)
VERDICT: Some confusion in there, but nothing stand-out (ish).

He also voted with Two-fry at the last minute. A lot of scum pings it seems.

More winey defence. First section is quite disjointed, and I'm not sure what to make of it. Points out that BN was reasonably friendly towards two-fry, which is a valid point. Slightly on the scummy side of neutral.

tastelikecoke wrote:Bignose had heaps of paranoid town actions. He suspected (or voted) no less than <nyssa>, phlip, Two-Fry and Misnomer. The problem is that's half of the player list. This paranoia sounds too absurd for BN, and it's a good tactic to avoid your suspicions from being told apart.

Pushing against BN, but with no vote or even FoS. Leaning scum.

tastelikecoke wrote:
Bignose wrote:TLC that is a really scummy post.

I say that to you too, because what you think is scummy is more like OMGUS.

What does you vote mean? It only made you paranoid, You didn't mention other possible arguments that points out scum to me. You are just angry to that I suspected you.

Look at the votals in a moment of D2.
Dr Ug wrote:Votals:

two-fry (3): ElectricHaze, tastelikecoke, BigNose
BigNose (3): <nyssa>, misnomer, two-fry

Ooh... They look familiar. You can't deny that your actions made you look scummy. Most of the attacks are short and brief, in both respects (time and length of post.)

But I won't vote anyway, We all need to look at this further because we can be both town, and someone out there, Skroob is eating popcorn.

FoS: Bignose

I... don't understand this. What is the significance of the D2 votes? Neutral, but only because I find the whole thing so incredibly confusing.

tastelikecoke wrote:This game is very very dead for a whole week. Glad it's back... I wish.

BN wrote:TLC, being paranoid is a sign of a Townie, because they don't know who they're friends are.
It's much similar to mud, you escalate your suspicion, that makes you suspicious, without the intention to.

I'll fix my scum-dar next time I have free time.

Inplies that BN is making himself appear suspicious by posting his suspicions of other people. It feels scummy, though I don't know what use it would serve. Leaning scum.

tastelikecoke wrote:Oh no, a deadline.

The votals would likely stay for 3 days, my guess, based on the severe inactivity.
Big Nose wrote:PS There is no way the Scum are going to counter-claim, not when there is only 1 Scum left.
This means the doctor claim tactic is bound to not work.
Scum can still hide without counter-claiming or claiming doctor, since there are no clear scum tells. Letting the doctor claim only lead to doctor's death.
Any other tactics besides scum tells, what?

Is that sarcasm at the start? Anyways, doctor claim tactic was about reducing the odds, not forcing scum to falseclaim. Neutral.

tastelikecoke wrote:
Misnomer wrote:TLC is easily the next best candidate for lynching - and I think i'm right in saying my vote gives TLC enough for a soft-lynch at the deadline.
Ack! We haven't exactly confirmed that BN is town, But if he was town, Then as scum why would I stall on voting BN? We should think on those players who will soon be modkill'd.

Here's the facts: I am not a doctor. The doctor, godfather and the miller are still alive. Legologos was gone for the Greek yachts. And the players with the power to counterclaim are DL, cf and LL.

Seems to suggest that we should lynch either BN or one of the players about to be modkilled. Scummy.


Conclusion: Highly confusing. It's hard to tell if his posts are genuine scumtells, or are just the product of confusion and translation difficulties. His confrontation with two-fry only complicates matters. Potentially quite scummy.

Two other analyses were conducted early on Day 2 - Two-fry found him scummy, while DL found him scummy town.


So after all that, I'm left with TLC and Nyssa both looking very lynchable for today. The question is then which of them is more scummy, and I don't see an obvious answer at the moment. I'd like to know other people's thoughts on the matter, and the quality of my analyses in general.
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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby BigNose » Tue Sep 14, 2010 6:15 pm UTC

As I said, I found TLC scummy and I had done an analysis of nyssa and also found her to be scummy, but couldn't be sure, due to the fact that I was looking at it from a defensive stance and could have had my view soured.

MOD: I would rather have the LURKERS ModKilled, even if it means the end of the game, than continue without them.
Adacore wrote:In all honesty, BigNose has been pinging me slightly with almost every post since the start of the game. But he always does - I was utterly convinced he was anti-town for most of Wizardry2 and he was the High Wizard. I just can't read him.

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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby Misnomer » Tue Sep 14, 2010 7:56 pm UTC

Oh yeah, seeing as it's that time of the week again...

Can we have another modprod on Dark Loink please? :P
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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby <nyssa> » Wed Sep 15, 2010 7:51 am UTC

BigNose wrote:MOD: I would rather have the LURKERS ModKilled, even if it means the end of the game, than continue without them.

Me too. We trying so hard to find each other scummy, when in reality, its probably quite likely that the five of us that are remaining are all town.

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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby BigNose » Wed Sep 15, 2010 8:01 am UTC

In fact, screw it!

Unvote
Vote: CrucialityFactor


He has been here less than DL and we do DL tomorrow.

If we have a NK, then we go back to TLC.

That leaves us at 7v1 atm
D3 5v1 No CF
D4 3v1 No DL or no TLC
And if there is no NK, then we can still mis-lynch.
(D4 4v1 lynch nyssa :twisted: , leaving D5 2v1)
Adacore wrote:In all honesty, BigNose has been pinging me slightly with almost every post since the start of the game. But he always does - I was utterly convinced he was anti-town for most of Wizardry2 and he was the High Wizard. I just can't read him.

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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby Misnomer » Wed Sep 15, 2010 8:25 am UTC

BigNose wrote:In fact, screw it!

Unvote
Vote: CrucialityFactor


He has been here less than DL and we do DL tomorrow.

If we have a NK, then we go back to TLC.

That leaves us at 7v1 atm
D3 5v1 No CF
D4 3v1 No DL or no TLC
And if there is no NK, then we can still mis-lynch.
(D4 4v1 lynch nyssa :twisted: , leaving D5 2v1)


What is the point in lynhcing somebody who is about to be modkilled? :?
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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby Dark Loink » Wed Sep 15, 2010 12:22 pm UTC

Misnomer wrote:
BigNose wrote:In fact, screw it!

Unvote
Vote: CrucialityFactor


He has been here less than DL and we do DL tomorrow.

If we have a NK, then we go back to TLC.

That leaves us at 7v1 atm
D3 5v1 No CF
D4 3v1 No DL or no TLC
And if there is no NK, then we can still mis-lynch.
(D4 4v1 lynch nyssa :twisted: , leaving D5 2v1)


What is the point in lynhcing somebody who is about to be modkilled? :?

Yeah, I could've sworn that me and cf get modkilled if we don't come back...so why lynch us right away?
Expecially since everyone seems to be finding me town, but you still want to lynch me. I understand lurker lynches, but moderation, too.

<nyssa> wrote:
BigNose wrote:MOD: I would rather have the LURKERS ModKilled, even if it means the end of the game, than continue without them.

Me too. We trying so hard to find each other scummy, when in reality, its probably quite likely that the five of us that are remaining are all town.

...This post doesn't sit right with me. While having us modkilled still makes sense, this is saying (don't pay attention to anyone else!) And just...this post seems scummy to me, I don't know. Scum is in a tough spot, and both lurkers dieing, if both of the lurkers are town, means they only need one more lynch and a nightkill to win. Pushing that extra advantage too hard, I'm not sure. I did write this quick, will elaborate tonight.

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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby BigNose » Wed Sep 15, 2010 1:25 pm UTC

My thinking is that maybe the Mod isn't going to ModKill the last scum and it is up to us, so LURKERS first.

I almost feel that we need a ModProd on the Mod.

Dark Loink wrote:...This post doesn't sit right with me. While having us modkilled still makes sense, this is saying (don't pay attention to anyone else!) And just...this post seems scummy to me, I don't know. Scum is in a tough spot, and both lurkers dieing, if both of the lurkers are town, means they only need one more lynch and a nightkill to win. Pushing that extra advantage too hard, I'm not sure. I did write this quick, will elaborate tonight.
You were included because of your lack of posting. I have no issue with changing the process. I do have an issue with this game stagnating.
Adacore wrote:In all honesty, BigNose has been pinging me slightly with almost every post since the start of the game. But he always does - I was utterly convinced he was anti-town for most of Wizardry2 and he was the High Wizard. I just can't read him.

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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby Dark Loink » Wed Sep 15, 2010 9:02 pm UTC

BigNose wrote:My thinking is that maybe the Mod isn't going to ModKill the last scum and it is up to us, so LURKERS first.

I almost feel that we need a ModProd on the Mod.

Dark Loink wrote:...This post doesn't sit right with me. While having us modkilled still makes sense, this is saying (don't pay attention to anyone else!) And just...this post seems scummy to me, I don't know. Scum is in a tough spot, and both lurkers dieing, if both of the lurkers are town, means they only need one more lynch and a nightkill to win. Pushing that extra advantage too hard, I'm not sure. I did write this quick, will elaborate tonight.
You were included because of your lack of posting. I have no issue with changing the process. I do have an issue with this game stagnating.

I understand that, but I assumed that they would be modkilled anyways(they as in me + cf, if I hadn't posted) making it a waste of a lynch, and basicly making a no-lynch, free nightkill. Lurkers are a bad thing, but its a bad thing to hide behind if scum (that was more about nyssa's post than yours, bn.)

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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby Misnomer » Wed Sep 15, 2010 9:14 pm UTC

BigNose wrote:My thinking is that maybe the Mod isn't going to ModKill the last scum and it is up to us, so LURKERS first.


Ug has already told use that CF is going to be modkilled if they don't post by the end of the day. Therefore we have absolutely no reason to fear that CF is the remaining scum and that Ug will avoid killing them. Your vote is completely irrational.

Also DL, can you post to confirm that you're not the doctor?
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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby Misnomer » Wed Sep 15, 2010 9:19 pm UTC

EBWOP: Also, because I didn't pick up on this earlier...

BigNose wrote:In fact, screw it!

Unvote
Vote: CrucialityFactor


He has been here less than DL and we do DL tomorrow.


Why has your push to lynch inactives ignored Legologos? :?

Your behaviour is really pinging me BN (so I have three scummy players in mind, yay paranoia!) - though for obvious reasons you cannot be the lynch target today.


And asking again...
Is Legologos being replaced, and will he be mod-killed at the end of the day if no replacement is found?
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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby BigNose » Thu Sep 16, 2010 9:11 am UTC

As far as CF is concerned, as soon as I see that he has been ModKilled, my vote will go back to TLC.

However:
ThinkSweet wrote:Hi all, sorry to interupt this game. LegoLogos is currently on his way to a yacht in the greek islands for the next 3 weeks 8) , & I'm pretty sure he won't have net access. So this is his proxy apology for forgetting to tell you guys sooner. I'm PM'd the mod, so he'll decide what to do as far as the game's concerned ... :D

Anyway, play on!
Was posted on 11 Sept and he should have been replaced or ModKilled by now, which is why I didn't include him.


MOD: Please do SOMETHING
Adacore wrote:In all honesty, BigNose has been pinging me slightly with almost every post since the start of the game. But he always does - I was utterly convinced he was anti-town for most of Wizardry2 and he was the High Wizard. I just can't read him.

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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby Misnomer » Thu Sep 16, 2010 9:22 am UTC

BigNose wrote:As far as CF is concerned, as soon as I see that he has been ModKilled, my vote will go back to TLC.

We've been told that CF will be modkilled at the end of the day - by which point, it will be too late for you to switch back to tlc, and we'll end up stuck with no lynch.
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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby Misnomer » Thu Sep 16, 2010 9:22 am UTC

EBWOP: Wrote my post on the wrong side of the quote tag... >_<
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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby Dr Ug » Thu Sep 16, 2010 12:55 pm UTC

I ahAave said that cf will be mod killed at the end of the day if he hasn't posted by then (which seems unlikely). I will not do this before the end of the day.

You have a little over 24 hours as I won't be able to end the day until then.

I apologize for the game dragging, but it has been unusually afflicted with lurking.
Where did my old signature go? :(

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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby Misnomer » Thu Sep 16, 2010 2:19 pm UTC

...

Ok, there may be a case for lynching LL then, as he is apparently not on the modkill list. But there certainly isn't one for lynching CF.
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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby phlip » Thu Sep 16, 2010 3:59 pm UTC

Well, partly because Misnomer's analysis has convinced me that they're a decent lynch, and partly to bring us back up to soft-lynch because no-lynch is still a bad idea:
Vote: TLC

I really don't think voting for someone who's very likely going to be modkilled is a fruitful pursuit.

Also: the only people who haven't not counterclaimed the doctor are the two people who are completely absent... which reminds me, I've been meaning to ask:
If CF and LL get modkilled, will their roles (if any) be revealed?

Code: Select all

enum ಠ_ಠ {°□°╰=1, °Д°╰, ಠ益ಠ╰};
void ┻━┻︵​╰(ಠ_ಠ ⚠) {exit((int)⚠);}
[he/him/his]

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Re: Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Chapter XXXIII: Revenge of the Skro

Postby BigNose » Thu Sep 16, 2010 4:01 pm UTC

As I said:
Unvote
Vote: TLC
Adacore wrote:In all honesty, BigNose has been pinging me slightly with almost every post since the start of the game. But he always does - I was utterly convinced he was anti-town for most of Wizardry2 and he was the High Wizard. I just can't read him.


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