Mafiaballs [Newbie]: Mafiaballs Win

[Dark Loink]

And no posts...well, I'm having some trouble gettings reads on people, which isn't good for activity...infinia and ard were making the most posts. What may help with that? More analysis!

Big Nose:

Spoiler:

WOW.
Lots of input, nice to see.

Regarding the Miller role-claiming, on a personal/meta-gaming basis, I would prefer the Miller not to role-claim because that loses some of the mystery of the process of playing the game. From a Townie point of view, I can understand the reason to claim and can't condemn it.
If the Miller claims, then either if there is a counter-claim, we (potentially) lose 3 Town for 1 scum (2 x lynch, 2 x NK), or if not, then we lose 1 Townie (NK) and have to consider who else to lynch D1.
Should the Doctor save the Miller if he is the only claim? The Doctor should be aiming to save the cop, but at D1, that is an unlikely target, so probably for N1, Doctoring the single-claim Miller is probably correct.
The problem with that is that the scum now have a greater chance of getting the Doctor or Cop, as the Miller gets written off the NK list.
Certainly, if the scum claim Miller, then the real Miller MUST counter-claim and hope he avoids the lynch.

On other points:

Alright...I'd say we probably have a godfather, knowing the set-up. Dark Helmut would probably be some sort of...roleblocker of sorts. There are probably 6 vanil-
Yeah. So open set-up. This is my confirming, I don't really have much to comment on as of yet. But cool.

Please make sure you do comment. One thing I do and will push on, is lack of posts and lack of content.

Finally, I need to look more into the Arduous/Infina back and forth.
This isn't a turbo.

I will be away from 31/07 to 08/08. I may get chance to get a quick post in that time.

Good first post. First off he gives two views, and I suppose I understand the meta-game view, but the townie one is just a little more important. Then he mentions doctor, if he should protect misnomer. Was debatable, but they chose another target. If BN is scum however, then he is trying to throw the doctor off of the kill. This post can go both ways, really. So...neutralish.

Next:

From a Townie point of view, I can understand the reason to claim and can't condemn it.

Does this imply that you are not normally looking at things in this game from a townie point of view?

LOL no. I was just stating that I had 2 points of view, the meta-gaming view and the Townie view.
I sometimes look at the game from a scum point of view, mainly when I am scum (obviously), but also when I am Town.
It's good to think 'what might scum do?'.

Saying that he thinks of, "what would scum do, and why?" I suppose that makes sense. If you haven't been scum, its a bit harder, but you can meta-game yourself to others. Neutral, kinda.

Well, blackfuse informed me he has a post pending saying that he is not the miller. I guess that wraps that up.

No offense Arduous, but until Blackfuse does state in thread, I'll take that with a single salt crystal.

@Infina
The self-vote only puts you in the same league as Zerker2000 and we know that he is now a persona non grata for quite a few people.
I would like to know what role you think I am. If you are scum (which I am inclined to believe), then you have effectively pronounced my death sentence (in thread, as opposed to in Night PM's), if you are Town, that was crap play.

I will withold my vote for now. I am forced to vote by end of next RL day (I will be away for 1 week).
This is a newbie game, so here's your chance Infina.

Says that infinia is being like zerker with self voting himself. If he is scum, (WHICH HE BELEIVES)...wait. BN thought infinia was scum. And...didn't vote for him. Sure, I didn't vote for him either...but. I had no idea what infinia was doing. I've played one other game with him, and needed a response. That could be the explination, but still, it seems odd to me. Somewhat scummy now.

I..err...what? Honestly, a girl goes out for a few hours and misses all the action!

Anyways,
If we don't get answers, I'm going to hammer in a few hours. Because that will at least clear up something. But I will be gone for a few hours, then I can discuss more of what has happened. But the self vote is what caught my eye. I am now confused.

I really badly want to vote, this being my first game and all, but also because of that I want to hear as much explanation of scenarios and posts as possible. So I'd like to wait until Dark Loink is back so I can hear what he has to say. I'm not interested in anything Infina has to say anymore.

I second this.

I would also like the Hammer NOT to be dropped until more have had a say.

Also, because:
a) Revenge would be sweet (soz Infina)
b) I am away from Sat to Sun (8 days), so want to miss as little as poss.

...ok. So. BN doesn't want to vote again. Huh. Again, I find it hard to accuse him, because I did this, but still.
So...BN is somewhat scummy, in my opinion. Infinia was doing some distancing, but then again...he could be trying to do that, to make BN seem more scummy. But lets not get ahead of myself here. I've got 7 to go

Misnomer:

Spoiler:

Posting to confirm and not much else atm. This my first mafia game on xkcd and it's a very different play style from what I'm used to - normally in the games I play role-revealing is the ultimate sin, so the arguments about the Miller coming out on day 1 is new territory for me. I'm also surprised by how quickly lynch votes have started flying. Anyways, I'm gonna look at a few of the other games so as to try and get a feel for what counts as 'normal behaviour' before coming to any decisions just yet.

First post, after all of our miller discussion. This is a first post, and it makes sense. Mainly because the next one-

Right, after doing some background reading...

Claim: Miller

If nobody challenges, then I haven't lost anything and am less likely to be lynched. If the scum counter-claims, then they either get lynched today or tomorrow. Either way it works out pretty good for the town.

For the record though, I would rather not be lynched on the first day!

Starts off with misnomer claiming miller. Wow. But there have been no counter-claims, I believe him. He is probably townie, hence his protection.

ninja'd:
well there's the claim, sorry for suggesting we leave you for the wolves by not doctoring you, but I think it would be in the best interests of the town.
I don't normally consider these to be huge tells, but it could be a slip up so IGMEOY.

Fair enough, I'm in the mind to agree with you. While obviously I won't object if the doctor wants to protect me, there's probably someone more useful they could protect, especially as I'm unlikely to be high up on the mafia's kill list.

I don't know about your claim Misnomer, We could had had a little D1 chat first before roleclaiming, so pings of scum might have been clearer. But we can't go back in time can we?

Mea culpa. The impression I got from past games was that a Miller either needs to claim early on the first day or not claim at all. And since there seemed to be such an early clamour for the Miller to reveal, I thought I'd best do so.

Isn't keeping the miller alive an anti-town move? It provides a lot of wine.

Surely lynching a player on the town's side is more of an anti-town move?

If somebody counter-claims me, then yes, one of us would need to be lynched. But if nobody does, it should be safe to assume then that I am the Miller, so there'd be no reason why it would generate any excess wine - if anything, it would leave me under less suspicion than your average townie.

This makes sense, and the last part helps explain part of the reason infinia was lynched (confirmed townie? We should lynch them) His miller talking, debating, and the way he understood it made sense-if this were a closed set-up, maybe we don't want to trust miller claims. Because there could be more than one, or none. But this is open. And he is a confirmed townie, I can see why he was protected. Also, this post leads on to the next person, TLC. But yeah, I think misnomer is townie. Only a counter-claim could really make me think otherwise at this point.

TLC:

Spoiler:

I'll read this whole block of texts in a later moment. But I guess it's a free time so wait for me!

Neutral post-but first post. I don't think I can get anything from this.

I don't know about your claim Misnomer, We could had had a little D1 chat first before roleclaiming, so pings of scum might have been clearer. But we can't go back in time can we?



So arduous and infina argued with each other, and Bignose had probably said everything about miller claims. I think the miller should claim. I don't know what will we do after that.
Isn't keeping the miller alive an anti-town move? It provides a lot of wine.
We could just ignore the miller and hope that the miller acts townie enough so he isn't copped. It's good meta-game-wise too.

Anyway that's some thoughts for me.

Maybe you can't go back in time. I however am a time-traveling monkey assassin.(For those of you who haven't read DNL, ignore this ) Alright then. So, first thing TLC talks about how we could get more pings if he hadn't claimed. I mean...I guess so, but all this really did was make someone who could be shown as scum trustworthy.
Also- what doesn't sit right with me is this part here

Self-voting is suicide for most of the time. Infina's self vote is interesting though.

Next, if I was scum, why would I continue to do things to make me stand out? The goal of scum is to hide, correct? I'm just a little to easy to find stuff in each post. Although, this would be my first time getting lynched for something I did. It might be fun. Lets try it.

I dunno, Is this infina's attempt to spread wine? Infina's defenses are too obnoxious to sound townie.

Some late response:

Mea culpa. The impression I got from past games was that a Miller either needs to claim early on the first day or not claim at all. And since there seemed to be such an early clamour for the Miller to reveal, I thought I'd best do so.

This is my first time playing with a miller, so I'll appreciate that wisdom.

Surely lynching a player on the town's side is more of an anti-town move?

Of course lynching the miller is outrageous. But doctoring the miller wouldn't make sense. scum needs to NK the doctor and the cop, not the miller.

Wondering if infinia was trying to speak wine. A good possibility. Then talk of the miller, not too much. Then saying that lynching the miller is outrageous (did TLC forget that he said to do just that?) and saying the doctor shouldn't protect him...but then scum could realize this and kill him. So this post could go both.

Defense of me.
Is it really bad to switch to ideas? Vote-hopping is a scumtell, but ideahopping.

Another just plain incorrect statement. Like arduous said, the doctor should protect whoever they think is most likely to be NK'd, and the miller was a good guess because scum do want the miller deadSlightly Scummy

I get some explanation, but if arduous said to the doctor that they should protect the miller, then the mafia won't NK the miller since town's going to protect him. Mafia would at most try to kill cop or doctor. Killing a miller isn't really better than NKing vanilla towns.

The first line appears to suggest that the self vote was not Scummy? It looked pretty scummy to me, and everyone else. Slightly Scummy

I thought that self-vote is like his last act to act zerker-like townie. I haven't been reading this days since next day is final exams day.

I hope you even consider this defense since I won't be able to this week.

I really hate how I always post in mafia just to defend my posts. I guess bad players won't enjoy mafia well.

I understand this post, I suppose. Defends pretty much what was said above.
In all, TLC is a bit scummy, but...I think this is a townie TLC, at least for now. Just a scummy townie.

Two-Fry:

Spoiler:

I don't need glasses

Thoughts on roles: The miller, while a pain in the ass, shouldn't effect our strategy. If someone comes up mafia on a cop, we should lynch them (in the absence of a counterclaim) despite the inevitable claim of miller. The presence of a roleblocker and a godfather makes playing follow the cop impossible; though if the cop finds the roleblocker early, it gives us a good chance of getting the goon to. The cop probably should claim despite the possibility of finding the miller, as there's a 2/3 chance of a scum resulting being scum (plus, hopefully the cop will select targets more likely to be scum)

Yeah, this makes sense. If a cop finds someone as "mafia" then why not lynch them? If the miller doesn't claim, of course. He also says the roleblocker makes follow cop impossible-course, right now, follow the cop is impossible. However, this makes sense. Town, in my opinion.

I think having the miller claim is a good idea

Makes sense. Townie, because claiming D1 eliminates the wine that goes with being copped as well. Claiming later on is much harder to accept.

Well, assuming that only scum will false claim, we actually want them to claim miller, as it identifies them immediately. 2 miller claims, assuming no NKs are blocked, would put us at D3 with 7 Town and 2 Scum or D2 with 8 Town and 2 Scum. A False cop claim would also have the effect of sacrificing a Town to get a Scum, which is a good proposition when scum are outnumbered 3 to 1

Two-Fry explaining that we want a miller claim, with good enough reasoning. Townie, again. Although, scum would say this as well, maybe.

Posting to confirm that I am not the miller
FOS: Infina
I see many good reasons to lynch Infina, however I'm going to hold of on my vote for two reasons:
First, he has been known to spread wine and play anti town while turning up town in the end
Second, Not everyone has posted since misnomers claim; leaving open the possibility of a miller counterclaim

Infina does seem like the best lynch in absence of a counterclaim though, so as soon as everyone has posted I'll upgrade to a vote.

Makes sense. Many people held an infinia vote for a while, and...we wanted to be sure of the misnomer thing. Townie enough, althogh everyone woh stalled the lynch a little (Yes, even me) has to realize that that could be a scumtell as well.

Actually, it's a 3/8 chance of hitting scum :p

Fractions! um...no, I am not going to get anything from this.

Okay then. Seeing as a miller counterclaim seems pretty unlikely at this point, I'll go ahead and
Vote: Infina
Can we get votals please?

Votes for infinia-this does not clear or condem him, I believe there were both scum as town on that bandwagon.

Well, with Infina out of the way, I'd like to call attention to the other player who was pinging me as scum yesterday.
[spoiler]

I don't know about your claim Misnomer, We could had had a little D1 chat first before roleclaiming, so pings of scum might have been clearer. But we can't go back in time can we?

Suggests miller should not have claimed. Slightly Scummy/Neutral

So arduous and infina argued with each other, and Bignose had probably said everything about miller claims. I think the miller should claim. I don't know what will we do after that.

After expressing doubts about the miller claim, says that the Miller should have claimed after all. Can't you make up your mind? Slightly Scummy

Isn't keeping the miller alive an anti-town move? It provides a lot of wine.

Suggest having the miller alive is bad, which is just plain wrong. Scummy

We could just ignore the miller and hope that the miller acts townie enough so he isn't copped. It's good meta-game-wise too.

Anyway that's some thoughts for me.

And appears to change his mind about miller again. Scummy
[spoiler]

Self-voting is suicide for most of the time. Infina's self vote is interesting though.

Next, if I was scum, why would I continue to do things to make me stand out? The goal of scum is to hide, correct? I'm just a little to easy to find stuff in each post. Although, this would be my first time getting lynched for something I did. It might be fun. Lets try it.

I dunno, Is this infina's attempt to spread wine? Infina's defenses are too obnoxious to sound townie.

The first line appears to suggest that the self vote was not Scummy? It looked pretty scummy to me, and everyone else. Slightly Scummy

Some late response:

Mea culpa. The impression I got from past games was that a Miller either needs to claim early on the first day or not claim at all. And since there seemed to be such an early clamour for the Miller to reveal, I thought I'd best do so.

This is my first time playing with a miller, so I'll appreciate that wisdom.

Surely lynching a player on the town's side is more of an anti-town move?

Of course lynching the miller is outrageous. But doctoring the miller wouldn't make sense. scum needs to NK the doctor and the cop, not the miller.

Another just plain incorrect statement. Like arduous said, the doctor should protect whoever they think is most likely to be NK'd, and the miller was a good guess because scum do want the miller deadSlightly Scummy
Overall: Scummy
I don't want to start a bandwagon without having any discussion first, but TLC is looking pretty scummy to me.
FoS: TLC

Analysis is a good thing. Speaking your opinion is a good thing. But is done by both sides, so neutraltownie
All in all, however? Two-Fry is seeming townie to me.

There, four down, and four to go.

[Two-Fry]

Looks like due to the short D1 we have very little to work with here, so even though I'm not completely satisfied with it, I'm going to do this anyways
Vote: TLC

[ElectricHaze]

Hi all, Sorry I haven't posted in a bit. Things got kinda hectic. I just left my job in preparation for going back to school, went on a trip, and am preparing for a week long trip to Vegas...

Anyways, now that I have some free time I thought I should pop in and offer up some thoughts.

Unvote
FoS: BN, Two-Fry

I think this is probably the best piece of evidence we have so far. This move looked to me like he realized the lynch was coming so he tried to throw to throw out some wine and distance himself from his scumbuddies. I would guess that one of those is scum and one is town.

Wow BN, if you're not scum, you just gave them a reason to pick you apart. Also, I noticed that OMGUS after I posted it. The power roles should not make themselves so noticeable, I have already got a good idea who you are. You don't want to be killed N1, now do you, and if I have noticed you, the scum won't take to long to catch on to you. There are three of them to pick up on the signs, they do not have just one vantage point to find you. I picked up on you not soon after the game started. My lynch the miller idea is if we have no better choice, and it gives the scum one less place to hide. Right now it is just that, an idea that can be picked apart for discussion. The more discussion that goes on, the easier it becomes to pick out scum while losing fewer townies. I also like picking apart plans to see all the ways they can go wrong.

So infina mentions BN in this post. It seems to suggest he believed BN to be town... He goes on to post some more on BN and says he thinks some of his posts were scummy in some later posts. Possibly trying to set him up for a lynch today. I don't know.

He never mentions two-fry in any of his posts so the FoS on two-fry at the end looks a little suspicious to me. I see no reason for this FoS other than to try and give a team mate more cred.

The problem for me is both BN and two-fry seem pretty towny, and I haven't really felt any scum vibes from either of them, but I really feel like infina would try and put a scum mate in there to try and distance them from himself. So based on the fact that one of those FoSes is totally out of the blue.
FoS: two-fry

[tastelikecoke]

I'm still going to stand ground my original opinion:

Isn't keeping the miller alive an anti-town move? It provides a lot of wine.

First, I'm not talking about lynching the miller, but staying alive.

and I was trying to question this:

So whoever is the doctor, ought to consider protecting the miller tonight.

This instruction invalidates the strategy.
Also,

But doctoring the miller wouldn't make sense. scum needs to NK the doctor and the cop, not the miller.

BigNose also had thoughts about this:

Should the Doctor save the Miller if he is the only claim? The Doctor should be aiming to save the cop, but at D1, that is an unlikely target, so probably for N1, Doctoring the single-claim Miller is probably correct.
The problem with that is that the scum now have a greater chance of getting the Doctor or Cop, as the Miller gets written off the NK list.
Certainly, if the scum claim Miller, then the real Miller MUST counter-claim and hope he avoids the lynch.

I really must ask why, does doctoring a miller better than doctoring anyone else. He's equal to a vanilla townie at most. Plus I don't think the mafia wants to kill the miller. He has no chance to block, special abilities or anything. Plus, because mafia now knows who is the miller, then they have 2/8 chance to get another power role. And since they have a nightkill, at Day 2 they have even more chance to get a power role (e.g. look at what happened today!) Why would they waste chances?

Anyway some of you would think this is mere hindsight, but I really, really believe that doctoring the miller wouldn't make sense at D1.

[meatyochre]

I'm still going to stand ground my original opinion:

Isn't keeping the miller alive an anti-town move? It provides a lot of wine.

First, I'm not talking about lynching the miller, but staying alive.

and I was trying to question this:

So whoever is the doctor, ought to consider protecting the miller tonight.

This instruction invalidates the strategy.
Also,

But doctoring the miller wouldn't make sense. scum needs to NK the doctor and the cop, not the miller.

BigNose also had thoughts about this:

Should the Doctor save the Miller if he is the only claim? The Doctor should be aiming to save the cop, but at D1, that is an unlikely target, so probably for N1, Doctoring the single-claim Miller is probably correct.
The problem with that is that the scum now have a greater chance of getting the Doctor or Cop, as the Miller gets written off the NK list.
Certainly, if the scum claim Miller, then the real Miller MUST counter-claim and hope he avoids the lynch.

I really must ask why, does doctoring a miller better than doctoring anyone else. He's equal to a vanilla townie at most. Plus I don't think the mafia wants to kill the miller. He has no chance to block, special abilities or anything. Plus, because mafia now knows who is the miller, then they have 2/8 chance to get another power role. And since they have a nightkill, at Day 2 they have even more chance to get a power role (e.g. look at what happened today!) Why would they waste chances?

Anyway some of you would think this is mere hindsight, but I really, really believe that doctoring the miller wouldn't make sense at D1.

I suggested it because this is a newbie game and I thought it was more likely that a miller would claim if they thought they would be protected that night. Since claiming D1 paints a target on oneself for the mafia.

[<nyssa>]

Yay weekend! I have finally got time to post something meaningful. Let's see, infina turned out to be scum, which was really not much of a surprise, and we lost the cop, which is a shame, seeing as we spent all of D1 trying to make his investigations meaningful. But no matter, on to what to do today.
Looking at infina's posts now, knowing that he's scum, I think there are some things we can pull out. First of all, he says this:

Wow BN, if you're not scum, you just gave them a reason to pick you apart.

And then goes on about power roles, which he later states wasn't about BN. Then, in response to me, all he said was why he didn't think BN was a power role, and that he may be 'slightly scummy'. So he doesn't actually state what the reason is that BN should be picked apart by scum. I'm thinking this might be a half-baked attempt at making BN not seem like one of his scum buddies.
Then, BN attacks infina twice but does not vote, FoS or IGMEOY or anything. Also he says that 'revenge would be sweet'. Not 100% sure what to make of this, but I think they could both be scum and trying to make it seem like they are not by arguing with each other. Overcompensating?
In the very next post, infina, having spent most of his time talking about how he thought BN 'might be slightly scummy', FoS's Two-Fry, seemingly out of nowhere for posting little content. I think this may have been a random grab at a townie to try and get us away from him or BN, as in the same post he unvoted himself and stated he wanted to try and generate more discussion and extend the day.
But then there is this post:

Vote:_infina_
and there is the curtain for the roleblocker. Goodnight BN.

He hammers himself, fair enough, saved us from doing it, but he says Goodnight BN. I don't know here if he's saying goodbye to his scum buddy either just because, or because he thinks we will lynch him D2, or whether he is saying goodnight because he thinks that he has made us think BN will be NK'd. Point is though, BN wasn't NK'd, arduous was, which makes BN seem even more scummy.
So err, yeah. I only really looked at infina and BN's posts and will have to look at other people's myself in addition to reading everyone's analyses, which I've done, but it is enough for me to FoS: BN, and get back to my homework.

[BigNose]

OK, A quick reposte as I have just got back:
Go read Diablo II

More hopefully tomorrow.

[<nyssa>]

OK, A quick reposte as I have just got back:
Go read Diablo II

Err, I'm good. I'm guessing your defence is that something you said I thought was scummy and it was actually just a reference to something I haven't read or played or have a desire to read or play...the flavour is Spaceballs, not Diablo. Don't assume people know what you are talking about.
Vote: BN

I'm in a bad mood today.

[Dark Loink]

OK, A quick reposte as I have just got back:
Go read Diablo II

More hopefully tomorrow.

I will finish it, but is this a sort of defense? You were scum in that game.
But, I will read more than the roles in the game. Then I may understand what you are saying, and it will make sense.

[<nyssa>]

Ohhhhh, he was talking about a Mafia Game? See what I mean about not assuming people know what you are talking about? I thought he meant the RPG.

[phlip]

I'm guessing it's regarding the "revenge" comment... did infina do something to BN in that game?

[phlip]

So, looking at the player list, between DL and me we've analysed everyone still alive except meatyochre, blackfuse81, ElectricHaze and me. I'm not going to analyse myself, that would be dumb, and blackfuse81 hasn't really said anything of substance yet (though he's not in Newly Registered Users any more, so he shouldn't have any problems with posts needing approval)... so I'll do the other two.

So, first, EH:

Spoiler:

Day 1:

Confirming. Just went on a 5 hour star craft 2 binge, tired now. Will post actual thoughts later.

Entirely reasonable - Starcraft 2 is awesome. I mean, that's why I didn't do this analysis all weekend, even though I was planning to. Other than that, contentless and neutral.

Add me to the whole group of Miller claim supporters. Pros: Cop can trust his scum results, might out a scum if there is a false claim Cons: Slightly smaller pool of targets for our cop to hide in making it slightly more likely he could be hit by a random NK. The only other thing I can add here is that if the miller claims he should NOT be doctored. The miller is essentially a vanilla townie once he has claimed, and our doctor should not be tied up protecting him. Plus having the doctor protect someone else forces scum to make a decision to kill a "vanilla" town or possibly get their NK blocked trying to go after a power role.

2 things that pinged me a bit.

We could always lynch the miller right away to prevent scum from using it as an excuse, but that is a town player down first thing. Not the best way to start a game, but could always be worse.

Infina has consistently shown some crazy logic, but I don't think I've seen him go crazy enough to think that purposely lynching a townie would be the correct move. So FoS: _infina_

Next:

From a Townie point of view, I can understand the reason to claim and can't condemn it.

Does this imply that you are not normally looking at things in this game from a townie point of view?
I don't normally consider these to be huge tells, but it could be a slip up so IGMEOY.

ninja'd:
well there's the claim, sorry for suggesting we leave you for the wolves by not doctoring you, but I think it would be in the best interests of the town.

(Note I've edited this quote according to the later EBWOP, to avoid confusion)

Good miller discussion, and doctor strategy. Nothing to complain about here.

Points the finger at infina, for being even more crazy than normal. I've already gone into why I think being suspicious of infina became mostly neutral, but this was still pretty early, I'm willing to call this town-leaning.

The BigNose thing was either a misspeak or a misread, and either way it was cleared up quickly with minimal wine-spilling, so I don't think there's much more to talk about here.

Wow BN, if you're not scum, you just gave them a reason to pick you apart. Also, I noticed that OMGUS after I posted it. The power roles should not make themselves so noticeable, I have already got a good idea who you are. You don't want to be killed N1, now do you, and if I have noticed you, the scum won't take to long to catch on to you. There are three of them to pick up on the signs, they do not have just one vantage point to find you. I picked up on you not soon after the game started.

Let me summarize "BN it is a bad idea to make it obvious if you are a power role because you will be NKed. BN I THINK ITS QUITE OBVIOUS YOU ARE A POWER ROLE." First off, I don't know what you caught there, but I didn't catch any tells. Secondly, that post is amazingly anti town.

My lynch the miller idea is if we have no better choice, and it gives the scum one less place to hide.

And you are still defending lynching a confirmed townie as a decent choice. I don't understand how scum could hide there or how this could ever be better than ANY other option.

Vote: _infina_
For the most confusing analysis ever(Aside from maybe TLC, no offense to you tlc, but you confuse the hell out of me), and making terribly anti town statements, and bad suggestions.

More infina-WTF-ery, and definitely getting into the time that it was getting neutral and unremarkable.

I'm not sure what the deal is with the TLC comment... is that a throwback to a previous game? Or maybe in reference to the miller discussion here? 'Cause that did seem a bit rambly and wasn't going anywhere...
But that's probably not especially relevant.

Next, if I was scum, why would I continue to do things to make me stand out? The goal of scum is to hide, correct? I'm just a little to easy to find stuff in each post. Although, this would be my first time getting lynched for something I did. It might be fun. Lets try it.
Vote:_infina_

I am now 99% certain you are scum. This has been so different from your normal play it's obvious. Other than a retaliatory vote you haven't cast about nearly the amount of Votes/FoSes that you normally do. You haven't blatantly hinted about your role, or claimed even though you've done it as soon as you were FoSed or voted for in every game I've ever played with you in. Also your strats are just plain bad for the town, rather than just the usual not well thought out plans you normally give, plus you are sticking to them more tenaciously then you normally do when people explain to you why they are bad for the town.

If I could vote for you again I'd do it.

Some of the strongest infina-hate all day, and not without reason. Some decent meta-analysis of infina's usual playstyle (he's usually crazy, but his behaviour this game was a different kind of crazy, as well as being moreso). But I still think infina-hate is neutral - this could be townie being emphatic to get others to vote too, or it could be scum throwing the probably unsaveable infina under the bus.

Day 2:

Hi all, Sorry I haven't posted in a bit. Things got kinda hectic. I just left my job in preparation for going back to school, went on a trip, and am preparing for a week long trip to Vegas...

Anyways, now that I have some free time I thought I should pop in and offer up some thoughts.

Unvote
FoS: BN, Two-Fry

I think this is probably the best piece of evidence we have so far. This move looked to me like he realized the lynch was coming so he tried to throw to throw out some wine and distance himself from his scumbuddies. I would guess that one of those is scum and one is town.

Wow BN, if you're not scum, you just gave them a reason to pick you apart. Also, I noticed that OMGUS after I posted it. The power roles should not make themselves so noticeable, I have already got a good idea who you are. You don't want to be killed N1, now do you, and if I have noticed you, the scum won't take to long to catch on to you. There are three of them to pick up on the signs, they do not have just one vantage point to find you. I picked up on you not soon after the game started. My lynch the miller idea is if we have no better choice, and it gives the scum one less place to hide. Right now it is just that, an idea that can be picked apart for discussion. The more discussion that goes on, the easier it becomes to pick out scum while losing fewer townies. I also like picking apart plans to see all the ways they can go wrong.

So infina mentions BN in this post. It seems to suggest he believed BN to be town... He goes on to post some more on BN and says he thinks some of his posts were scummy in some later posts. Possibly trying to set him up for a lynch today. I don't know.

He never mentions two-fry in any of his posts so the FoS on two-fry at the end looks a little suspicious to me. I see no reason for this FoS other than to try and give a team mate more cred.

The problem for me is both BN and two-fry seem pretty towny, and I haven't really felt any scum vibes from either of them, but I really feel like infina would try and put a scum mate in there to try and distance them from himself. So based on the fact that one of those FoSes is totally out of the blue.
FoS: two-fry

Trying to unravel the WIFOM... personally I'm never very good at this, so I tend to simply ignore everything the scum says... don't have it affect me one way or the other. Only way I can stay sane amongst the Sicilian reasoning. With that said, though, I think what he says has merit. But on the other hand, maybe it's the wine in front of you.

But still, that's not the point of this analysis thing, I'm looking at EH at the moment, not BN or 2F... and this post looks town to me.


All up: Looks town to me.

meatyochre:

Spoiler:

Day 1:

It's curious to me that a miller and godfather are both included in a smallish game. They're both interesting roles and the flavor context explains well why the miller is not on the payroll and why the godfather was, at one point. But the way both roles seem to function is anti-town. Because the mafiaballs will be protected if either the miller or godfather get copped. Unfortunate.

It's pretty cool to be in a wide-open setup like this for a change; the couple games I've played were mostly closed. It gives vanilla town a lot more information on scum (and conversely, gives scum more information on town power roles--it's a double bladed sword!). However, we do lose the ability to role-spec, which is what tends to comprise a lot of D1 conversation. Here's hoping D1 isn't totally dead.

What else can we talk about, since we know roles already?

Some thinking on the effects of the miller and godfather, and concerns that D1 will be dead (D1 turned out to be fine, as it happened, it's D2 that's dead). All up, pretty neutral.

I also meant to ask, did the guards in the Spaceballs movie actually wear red shirts? I don't recall them, if so. Is it just a comical nod by Dr. Ug to Star Trek?

Question on the flavour. Contentless, neutral.

I agree that a miller claim would be prudent. As I stated in my earlier post, having both a miller and godfather up at the same time tends to hurt town because the cop is rendered impotent. GF would never claim, of course, so the only alternative to clear up some of this muddiness is a miller claim.

I do think that, considering this is a newbie game, assuming that the miller would be wholly rational and playing strictly to benefit town/win the game may be a stretch. Role-claiming paints a target on oneself to be NKd, and being killed on day one sucks if it's your first game. I know that in my first game (Diablo), I tried very, very hard not to die on the first day. I was scum (and a replacement) in that game, and I went so far as to try to bandwagon a lynch on a fellow scum with powers rather than be lynched myself (I had no powers), only because I really wanted the experience of playing the game. So I am familiar with the influence wanting to participate can have on rational behavior. Hopefully our miller is willing to put him/herself at risk by claiming, though. It makes sense that if Pizza were to claim, he/she'd be the best target for the doctor to protect at night. As long as the doc didn't get roleblocked.

So whoever is the doctor, ought to consider protecting the miller tonight.

Additionally, if Pizza does not make a legitimate miller claim soon, I imagine a scum will decide to false claim. Ergo, mud. So, if you're going to claim, Pizza, please do it asap!

Miller stuff. Some interesting stuff on convincing someone to take one for the team. Suggests the doctor should protect the miller, which is questionable, as it rarely helps for the doctor's strategy to be public knowledge, but as he explained later this was part of the same convince-them-to-take-the-fall thought.

Pushes the miller to claim quickly... which I'm not sure about. There was never any rush to get the miller to claim quickly... just quick enough to get the claim and any counterclaims or lack thereof in by the end of D1. And it's usually a scumtell to push for haste when there's no time pressure. But on the other hand, I'm not sure how the scum would benefit from pushing for an earlier miller claim.

Hey, blackfuse81 is a friend of mine irl. He's tried posting a couple times but it tells him his post needs to get reviewed by a mod before it goes through. phlip, is there anything you can do to get his account unflagged or something?

Yeah he won't be able to post until his first 2 posts have been mod-approved. recent change for new accounts to prevent overspamification

I think that an infina lynch makes more sense than a miller lynch. We know with a high degree of certainty (in absence of a counterclaim) that the miller is town. Therefore, he shouldn't/won't be copped because the result would be known with a high degree of certainty.

We don't know whether infina is town (I also see that he's spreading wine already, this doesn't seem likely to change). Why would we lynch the miller when we could pick pretty much anyone else (even at random) and have a 1/11 chance of hitting scum? As opposed to a 0/11 chance by lynching the miller.

FoS: infina (for poor analysis from a statistical point of view, and continually pretending to know more than he does)

Sensibly saying we shouldn't lynch the almost-confirmed miller (at that point, we were still waiting on nyssa and blackfuse to not counterclaim), and some infina-fingering. Also, some questionable fractions. Minorly town... getting into the point where suspecting infina is neutral, and not lynching the confirmed townie really should've been obvious from the start.

oh fkbeans, I guess I should have said 0/12 for the miller lynch.

statistical criticism irony

Continued questionable fractions. Contentless, neutral.

Actually, it's a 3/8 chance of hitting scum :p

ugh. thanks.

So! FoS: meatyochre for being bad at statistics. I need to take my own medicine, apparently.

(kidding, obviously)

Questionable fractions part 3. Humour, contentless, neutral.

scumtells from infina, emphasis mine:
1)

Why don't you people seem to get that?

(Sounds like he is talking to "you town people" from an outside perspective.)
2) votes for himself because it will be "fun". Mud, wine, slime, pondscum. You're pinging my scumdar so hard already.
3) Claims that because he's doing things to stand out, he can't possibly be scum because scum would try to blend in better. Well, infina's playstyle has been exactly like this in every game, regardless of role.
4)

I may wear a red shirt, and as such expect to die, but revenge isn't for the town.

He's roleclaiming vanilla town here. Claiming is bad unless special circumstances (like all the miller jazz). Could be telling the truth, could be desperately trying to prevent a lynch on himself, could be scum. Inconclusive but still obnoxious.
5) Unvotes for himself. More pondscum.

vote: infina

This should take us to hammer -1 with his unvote. I have no problem with ending D1 sooner than expected. infina's all over the place and my scumdar is humming like mad.

Continued infina-hate. Again pushes for speed... and the hammer fell with the very next post. Given infina was scum, this couldn't be a "quick, vote for the bandwagon on the townie and don't think about it", but still... maybe trying to shut infina up if he was starting to give clues as to the other mafia members (as EH suspects he was)? But I'm probably reading too much into it.

Day 2:

I'm still going to stand ground my original opinion:

Isn't keeping the miller alive an anti-town move? It provides a lot of wine.

First, I'm not talking about lynching the miller, but staying alive.

and I was trying to question this:

So whoever is the doctor, ought to consider protecting the miller tonight.

This instruction invalidates the strategy.
Also,

But doctoring the miller wouldn't make sense. scum needs to NK the doctor and the cop, not the miller.

BigNose also had thoughts about this:

Should the Doctor save the Miller if he is the only claim? The Doctor should be aiming to save the cop, but at D1, that is an unlikely target, so probably for N1, Doctoring the single-claim Miller is probably correct.
The problem with that is that the scum now have a greater chance of getting the Doctor or Cop, as the Miller gets written off the NK list.
Certainly, if the scum claim Miller, then the real Miller MUST counter-claim and hope he avoids the lynch.

I really must ask why, does doctoring a miller better than doctoring anyone else. He's equal to a vanilla townie at most. Plus I don't think the mafia wants to kill the miller. He has no chance to block, special abilities or anything. Plus, because mafia now knows who is the miller, then they have 2/8 chance to get another power role. And since they have a nightkill, at Day 2 they have even more chance to get a power role (e.g. look at what happened today!) Why would they waste chances?

Anyway some of you would think this is mere hindsight, but I really, really believe that doctoring the miller wouldn't make sense at D1.

I suggested it because this is a newbie game and I thought it was more likely that a miller would claim if they thought they would be protected that night. Since claiming D1 paints a target on oneself for the mafia.

Explaining a previous post, bringing it from questionable to neutral in my eyes.


Summary: it's hard to get a read here, it's almost all neutral, with a couple of small scum pings and a couple of minor townie moments. I think it averages neutral to slightly-leaning-scum. Not in a big way, but still.

tl;dr version: ElectricHaze looks town; meatyochre, IGMEOY.

[BigNose]

OK. I am back from my hols and last nights quick post was just a simple "I'm here" post.

Regarding Infina and I, we both played in Mafia - Diablo II, where I was the GF and he was a Bomb (last vote also dies). He (amazingly) picked me out as GF from my first post in that game and then managed to, by luck, (I have since read his spoilers stating so) picked out the other 2 scum. For me, it was a permanent defence against that 1st post accusation and constant attack by Infina.

In this game, Infina was easily idetifiable as scum, with me even stating so but not voting. The lack of voting was to ensure that there was more time for people to say things. The more content there is, the better it is for Town. I think that his strategy of unvote and re-vote on himself was in response to my "revenge is sweet" comment, whereby I was quite happy to hammer him, but he thwarted my efforts with his unvote/re-vote on himself.

Let me do the 'rounds' on my other Mafia games and I'll be back with more in-depth later.

[Misnomer]

As phlip hasn't been analysed yet, here's my attempt at doing so

nb: I had to clip some quotes-in-quotes because the preview for this post wasn't displaying things properly.

Spoiler:

Posting quickly to get this into the egosearch... I'll post my thoughts on the role list later, when I get the chance to think about it.

Start of the game post, little content. Neutral.

Someone claiming miller now will just lead to lynching them, and otherwise the cop would declare them scum for them to claim, opening the scum up a chance at a kill. And I was thinking more along the lines of the GF false claiming. Confirming miller? Are you serious? What if both non-GF scum claim miller? Did you think of that? I think you are the scum.

I made a similar mistake to this in my first newbie game... thinking "but what if the scum falseclaims and the real role doesn't claim?"... 'course, that was with actual power-roles, not a miller, and it was in the late game, but the principle's the same.

The point is that the miller wants the town to win, and doesn't have to survive to win. If a townie can do something to increase the chance of a town win, even at the expense of their own survival, it makes sense for them to do it. If everyone in the town agrees that a miller claim would be a good thing for town, then when the miller claims come in, one of them will be real. The possibility of "one of the scum claims miller but the real miller stays silent" is removed from the table because the miller wants the town to win, and staying silent (especially given the discussion saying that a miller claim would be good) would harm the town.
So if we only get one claim, it's going to be the miller... and we then have a confirmed townie, better chances of lynching and copping scum, and knowledge that if a cop result comes up scum then it's real - benefits all around (even if the miller is NKed, which they might be... on one hand, they're no power role, but on the other hand, they're a confirmed townie, which is harmful to scum in and of itself). And if we get multiple claims, then all the ones that aren't real will be scum, and we can lynch all the claimers (unless we happen to lynch the scum first, in which case the remaining claimer is the true miller)... in which case, we have a lynched scum member, and again know who the miller is (be they alive or dead) and be able to rely on cop scum results.

In short: I think a miller claim is good, and should happen D1, so the cop doesn't have a chance to waste investigations on someone who'll later claim anyway. But even if the discussion goes the other way, and we decide against miller claiming for whatever reason, then if, later, the scum does falseclaim, the real miller should counterclaim as soon as possible anyway, to clear up the mud.

I really think you're flying off the handle a bit much, infina... from what I understand, crazy behaviour is par for the course for you, so I'm not voting yet, but IGMEOY.

Picked up on infina's rather bizarre reasoning regarding the Miller claim. Arguments all stand up to scrutiny. Points out that the Miller must claim if scum false claims. Leaning town.

I must say, the miller may go against the wishes of the town and decide not to claim even if we want such a claim to happen.

But I don't see why they would... sure, they'd have a better chance of surviving in the short term by avoiding the lynch, but they'd be severely damaging the town's (and thus their own) chance of winning the whole game. The phrase "win the battle, lose the war" comes to mind.

I mean, it's not like the miller's going to be zerker, he's not even in this game.

Solid reasoning as to why it would not be in the Miller's interests to claim. Leaning town.

OK, so we have our miller claim, and so far everyone except meaty, nyssa and blackfuse have posted and not counter-claimed. Looks pretty good, though obviously we should wait for those three to also post before we trust anything.

infina is pinging me badly on pretty much every post he makes... I'm going to need to go through some of his other games to get a baseline for his natural scum-seeming-ness, and see if he's being any more scumtastic than normal... but pending that, major FoS.

On other notes:

Hey, blackfuse81 is a friend of mine irl. He's tried posting a couple times but it tells him his post needs to get reviewed by a mod before it goes through. phlip, is there anything you can do to get his account unflagged or something?

I think the way it works is he'll be in that group until he makes a post in a forum which counts for postcount. The mod-review option applies to new users with a postcount of 0. Get him to make a post in ICT or something, and he should be fine.

I also meant to ask, did the guards in the Spaceballs movie actually wear red shirts? I don't recall them, if so. Is it just a comical nod by Dr. Ug to Star Trek?

I watched my copy of Spaceballs again... looks like there are no Druish guards in the movie at all, red-shirted or otherwise. Very little of the movie takes place on Druidia anyway.

Further comments on infina's behaviour, although by this point scum may well have written him off and started attacking him. Neutral.

Yeah he won't be able to post until his first 2 posts have been mod-approved. recent change for new accounts to prevent overspamification

Not 2, just 1. But I think that, as ever, posts in FG don't count.

Unrelated to the game. Neutral.

Next, if I was scum, why would I continue to do things to make me stand out? The goal of scum is to hide, correct? I'm just a little to easy to find stuff in each post. Although, this would be my first time getting lynched for something I did. It might be fun. Lets try it.
Vote:_infina_

I... um... what? But... what?

Do I really need to go into details about how... exceptionally daft that idea is? In so many different ways? In just that quoted paragraph alone? Even leaving aside all the other exceptionally daft things you've done so far in the thread (which includes pretty much every daft idea in the book).

I think infina's unofficial votals there are right, so we're at hammer-3 now. [ninja-edit] With Two-Fry's we're at hammer-2 [/ninja-edit]. We're still waiting on blackfuse to post after the miller claim, and he hasn't posted much at all, because of the post approval thing, which will hopefully be sorted soon... I know in my first newbie game, D1 ended before I had a chance to do anything substantial at all... I'd rather not inflict the same thing on another new player... and I'll repeat what's been said by others: that this isn't a turbo game, and if the day's a bit longer before the vote finishes, we lose nothing.

So I won't vote just yet, if only blackfuse a chance to chip in. If it wasn't for that, my vote would definitely be on inf right now.

Pretty much expressing everybody's incomprehension of infina's behaviour by this point. Argues that the day shouldn't end until blackfuse has proven the miller claim for certain. Slightly town.

That's good to know. Yay, sense of completion.

Well, that's the only real thing that was stopping me, so...
Vote: _infina_
(I believe that's Hammer - 1... next vote ends it all)

And a vote for infina - doesn't really mean anything with regards to alignment by this point though. Neutral.

EBWOP: Did someone declare "everyone ninja phlip day" or something? Now the mod is getting in on the action...

Unrelated to the game. Neutral.

Spoiler:

Oh hi daytime, I didn't see you there.

So infina turned out to be scum to the surprise of noone, and we're minus the roleblocker and the cop. Not the best trade ever, losing the cop will hurt, but I think we're still ahead now. I'm too tired to figure out the actual numbers, but it feels like 1 for 1, even a power role, is a win, if less so than it could be.

In general it looks like most of day 1 was either infina trying to throw mud around and people calling infina for trying to throw mud around. While there's often some information to be gotten from how the votes fall when the scum is lynched, I don't think there's much there in this time... I'm not even sure I'd characterise the lynch as a bandwagon... the votes kept racking up not because they were convinced by other voters, but because they were convinced by infina's bad play.
But it seems we've already made it to the "pick people at random and analyse them to death" phase of the game, so I'll give it a shot. Random number generator picked DL, so I'll go through his.

...

Contentless confirmation post with a touch of humour. Neutral.

Says he has nothing to say yet, implying he'll have more to say later.

...

Nested analysis quotes snipped for length to avoid recursion when this post inevitably itself gets quoted by someone else's analysis... I can just see that exploding horrifically.

A lot of stuff here... a touch on millers, but this was after all the discussion and the miller claim had already happened, so not much to say. A little bit on FTC too. Several posts of infina's trashed, which is entirely reasonable. Agrees with me on miller claiming, an action which I can't objectively rate without invoking some kind of anti-OMGUS. More infina-trashing. Finally, noting that the miller claim happened, and reiterating the call for a counterclaim if it was false.

I'm in two minds about this... on one hand, it's an entirely reasonable townie post, but on the other, suspecting infina rapidly transcended the townie/scummy axis and became merely "observant". But on the third hand, as I mentioned, that the post focused almost entirely on infina was hardly limited to this post, or just DL.

Says he's run out of time, implying he'll have more to say later.

...

Reaction to infina's bizarre self-vote, and pretty much the only sane reaction to take - one of utter confusion.

Says he's short on time, saying he'll have more to say later.

Finally This (it's directly above this post, I'm not going to quote it here).

Reasonable analysis of nyssa, which I'll agree with. Kinda shallow analysis, but I can't fault him for that, I'm doing the same in this very post. I'm not convinced there's really enough to work with for a thorough analysing yet.

Doesn't say he's out of time and will have more to say later, thus breaking with tradition.
All in all: neutral vaguely leaning town, but not really enough out there yet to call.

Incidentally, is the new thread subject a reference to anything? I don't recognise it from the movie...

Reasonably solid analysis of DL - the point that it's hard to draw too much from the Day1 discussion because of the speed at which infina crashed is a fair one. Leaning town.

Oh, right, 'cause the deaths were Dark Helmet and Lone Star. Duh. Half-asleep-me is even less cluey than I thought.

A response to Ug's answer about the topic title. Neutral.

I'm guessing it's regarding the "revenge" comment... did infina do something to BN in that game?

Short question about the whole BN/infina revenge issue. Neutral.

So, looking at the player list, between DL and me we've analysed everyone still alive except meatyochre, blackfuse81, ElectricHaze and me. I'm not going to analyse myself, that would be dumb, and blackfuse81 hasn't really said anything of substance yet (though he's not in Newly Registered Users any more, so he shouldn't have any problems with posts needing approval)... so I'll do the other two.

So, first, EH:Day 1:

...

Entirely reasonable - Starcraft 2 is awesome. I mean, that's why I didn't do this analysis all weekend, even though I was planning to. Other than that, contentless and neutral.

...

(Note I've edited this quote according to the later EBWOP, to avoid confusion)

Good miller discussion, and doctor strategy. Nothing to complain about here.

Points the finger at infina, for being even more crazy than normal. I've already gone into why I think being suspicious of infina became mostly neutral, but this was still pretty early, I'm willing to call this town-leaning.

The BigNose thing was either a misspeak or a misread, and either way it was cleared up quickly with minimal wine-spilling, so I don't think there's much more to talk about here.

...

More infina-WTF-ery, and definitely getting into the time that it was getting neutral and unremarkable.

I'm not sure what the deal is with the TLC comment... is that a throwback to a previous game? Or maybe in reference to the miller discussion here? 'Cause that did seem a bit rambly and wasn't going anywhere...
But that's probably not especially relevant.

...

Some of the strongest infina-hate all day, and not without reason. Some decent meta-analysis of infina's usual playstyle (he's usually crazy, but his behaviour this game was a different kind of crazy, as well as being moreso). But I still think infina-hate is neutral - this could be townie being emphatic to get others to vote too, or it could be scum throwing the probably unsaveable infina under the bus.

Day 2:

...

Trying to unravel the WIFOM... personally I'm never very good at this, so I tend to simply ignore everything the scum says... don't have it affect me one way or the other. Only way I can stay sane amongst the Sicilian reasoning. With that said, though, I think what he says has merit. But on the other hand, maybe it's the wine in front of you.

But still, that's not the point of this analysis thing, I'm looking at EH at the moment, not BN or 2F... and this post looks town to me.


All up: Looks town to me.
meatyochre:[spoiler]Day 1:

...

Some thinking on the effects of the miller and godfather, and concerns that D1 will be dead (D1 turned out to be fine, as it happened, it's D2 that's dead). All up, pretty neutral.

...

Question on the flavour. Contentless, neutral.

...

Miller stuff. Some interesting stuff on convincing someone to take one for the team. Suggests the doctor should protect the miller, which is questionable, as it rarely helps for the doctor's strategy to be public knowledge, but as he explained later this was part of the same convince-them-to-take-the-fall thought.

Pushes the miller to claim quickly... which I'm not sure about. There was never any rush to get the miller to claim quickly... just quick enough to get the claim and any counterclaims or lack thereof in by the end of D1. And it's usually a scumtell to push for haste when there's no time pressure. But on the other hand, I'm not sure how the scum would benefit from pushing for an earlier miller claim.

...

Sensibly saying we shouldn't lynch the almost-confirmed miller (at that point, we were still waiting on nyssa and blackfuse to not counterclaim), and some infina-fingering. Also, some questionable fractions. Minorly town... getting into the point where suspecting infina is neutral, and not lynching the confirmed townie really should've been obvious from the start.

...

Continued questionable fractions. Contentless, neutral.

...

Questionable fractions part 3. Humour, contentless, neutral.

...

Continued infina-hate. Again pushes for speed... and the hammer fell with the very next post. Given infina was scum, this couldn't be a "quick, vote for the bandwagon on the townie and don't think about it", but still... maybe trying to shut infina up if he was starting to give clues as to the other mafia members (as EH suspects he was)? But I'm probably reading too much into it.

Day 2:

...

Explaining a previous post, bringing it from questionable to neutral in my eyes.


Summary: it's hard to get a read here, it's almost all neutral, with a couple of small scum pings and a couple of minor townie moments. I think it averages neutral to slightly-leaning-scum. Not in a big way, but still.
tl;dr version: ElectricHaze looks town; meatyochre, IGMEOY.

Possibly too generous in calling EH town. Possibly too much made out of meatyochre's apparent desire for speed. Neutral.

Conclusion: leaning town - neutral at very worst.

[meatyochre]

Sorry I haven't been posting more (I was off forums all weekend and now I'm back and I just can't get the oooomph to want to play). I'm really horribly bad at point-blank post analysis and it feels like there's less to go on now than there was on d1 (cause at least we all had infina upon which to fixate). And I'm really tired.

sigh. If you want to replace me I would have np with that at all. sorry

[Dr Ug]

This day is seriously dragging. If posting doesn't increase in the next day or so I will impose a deadline (so yes, that makes it a deadline for a deadline...)

[Two-Fry]

Okay, it seems to me like we essentially have a 2nd day 1 because we didn't really get much information from Infina's lynch. However people also seem hesitant to vote with little info like they would on Day 1. So, at risk of sounding scummy for trying to hurry things, I'm going to suggest that we just pick a player and lynch them.
The players who have been FOS'd, and I therefore consider lynch candidates
TLC: FOS'd by myself for using false logic in the miller discussion
BN: FOS'd by Misnomer and Nyssa due being named by Infina
Myself: FOS'd by Electric Haze for the same reason

I'd feel more comfortable with the TLC lynch because I'm inclined to think Infina was just throwing out wine, but I could also go for the BN lynch. I think that in the end, Misnomer needs to take leadership because we can all trust him.

[phlip]

Speaking of slow posting, can we get a modprod on blackfuse? He hasn't posted anything in nearly a fortnight...

[ElectricHaze]

Hey, I'm heaing off to Vegas for a week so I may not be able to post much, not that I have been anyways... Sry. I just wanted to get a few thoughts in. I still think either BN or two-fry is scum, and I'm pretty certain it is two-fry.

I've played several games with infina, and the FoS out of the blue is usually a pretty strong tell from him about what he thinks about a player. With him being scum it just looks like a half baked attempt to distance two-fry from himself. BN has also come across as more towny feeling to me from his posts.

So, at risk of sounding scummy for trying to hurry things, I'm going to suggest that we just pick a player and lynch them.

Also, What? Surely we have more to go on than just trying to pick someone at random and vote, and if we go this route won't we just be back in this same situation tomorrow? No deadline has been put into place yet so there is still time for discussion and properly picking a lynch target who has a chance of being scum.

I've seen talk about TLC, which I want to address. TLC, at least to me, is a very confusing person. I never seem to understand what point he is trying to make or what his strategy is, it's all just confusing to me and looks like wine. I have played with him in several games and in all of them he's been town. I see no abnormalities in any of his posts to suggest he is trying to change anything up or hide anything. If no better target comes up I'm willing to go along with a TLC lynch simply to reduce the number of players that confuse the hell out of me.

For now though I will
vote: two-fry

I think he is the best choice and since I'm going away I'll throw the vote out there. If anything significant happens I'll be able to change it from my phone or something.

[Two-Fry]

Hey, I'm heaing off to Vegas for a week so I may not be able to post much, not that I have been anyways... Sry. I just wanted to get a few thoughts in. I still think either BN or two-fry is scum, and I'm pretty certain it is two-fry.

I've played several games with infina, and the FoS out of the blue is usually a pretty strong tell from him about what he thinks about a player. With him being scum it just looks like a half baked attempt to distance two-fry from himself. BN has also come across as more towny feeling to me from his posts.

Either that, or he was just throwing out wine.

So, at risk of sounding scummy for trying to hurry things, I'm going to suggest that we just pick a player and lynch them.

Also, What? Surely we have more to go on than just trying to pick someone at random and vote, and if we go this route won't we just be back in this same situation tomorrow? No deadline has been put into place yet so there is still time for discussion and properly picking a lynch target who has a chance of being scum.

Call me impatient if you will, but I don't really enjoy a day needlessly extended in the name of 'discussion' which never materializes. And no, we won't end up with another situation like this. We didn't gain any information from the Infina lynch because it was unanimous so we have no voting record to go on, whereas this will obviously be different.

I've seen talk about TLC, which I want to address. TLC, at least to me, is a very confusing person. I never seem to understand what point he is trying to make or what his strategy is, it's all just confusing to me and looks like wine. I have played with him in several games and in all of them he's been town. I see no abnormalities in any of his posts to suggest he is trying to change anything up or hide anything. If no better target comes up I'm willing to go along with a TLC lynch simply to reduce the number of players that confuse the hell out of me.

For now though I will
vote: two-fry

I think he is the best choice and since I'm going away I'll throw the vote out there. If anything significant happens I'll be able to change it from my phone or something.

I think the reasoning here is pretty weak. Infina was just throwing out wine left and right, and I don't think we should lynch based on that when TLC was actually acting scummy.

[Misnomer]

I think that in the end, Misnomer needs to take leadership because we can all trust him.

This is perhaps the scummiest move so far - I should never be trusted to take the lead of anything!


But yeah, with a potential deadline hovering over our heads, I guess I probably should throw out a lynch vote, seeing as I am OMGUS-proof.

The three lynch candidates for today seem to be BN, TLC and Two-Fry.

BigNose seems to have provided evidence of a genuine feud with infina, which makes the events of day 1 seem less suspicious, although I'm still not entirely convinced.

TLC... from what I can gather, the claim against him rests on the fact he appeared to flip-flop over the miller issue. Looking at the offending posts, this strikes me more as genuine confusion on the part of TLC as opposed to scum playing the fool.

Which leaves two-fry - and Infina's FoS still strikes me as very confusing. There is no apparent reason for it, and the idea that infina may have conceded by this point and have been trying to throw his scummates clear of the wreckage remains a credible one. As you say, it could of course just have been infina throwing wine around - but either way, you've been left with wine splashed down you, and we unfortunately have very little to go on this phase.

Vote: Two-fry

For want of any real information to go on...

Also, agree that blackfuse needs modprodding.

[BigNose]

ANALYSIS: Two-Fry

Spoiler:

I don't need glasses

Thoughts on roles: The miller, while a pain in the ass, shouldn't effect our strategy. If someone comes up mafia on a cop, we should lynch them (in the absence of a counterclaim) despite the inevitable claim of miller. The presence of a roleblocker and a godfather makes playing follow the cop impossible; though if the cop finds the roleblocker early, it gives us a good chance of getting the goon to. The cop probably should claim despite the possibility of finding the miller, as there's a 2/3 chance of a scum resulting being scum (plus, hopefully the cop will select targets more likely to be scum)

Good basics

I think having the miller claim is a good idea

Same as others

Well, assuming that only scum will false claim, we actually want them to claim miller, as it identifies them immediately. 2 miller claims, assuming no NKs are blocked, would put us at D3 with 7 Town and 2 Scum or D2 with 8 Town and 2 Scum. A False cop claim would also have the effect of sacrificing a Town to get a Scum, which is a good proposition when scum are outnumbered 3 to 1

Good Townie stuff

Posting to confirm that I am not the miller
FOS: Infina
I see many good reasons to lynch Infina, however I'm going to hold of on my vote for two reasons:
First, he has been known to spread wine and play anti town while turning up town in the end
Second, Not everyone has posted since misnomers claim; leaving open the possibility of a miller counterclaim

Infina does seem like the best lynch in absence of a counterclaim though, so as soon as everyone has posted I'll upgrade to a vote.

Neutral

Actually, it's a 3/8 chance of hitting scum :p

Maths

Okay then. Seeing as a miller counterclaim seems pretty unlikely at this point, I'll go ahead and
Vote: Infina
Can we get votals please?

True to his word, votes on Infina

Well, with Infina out of the way, I'd like to call attention to the other player who was pinging me as scum yesterday.

{SPOILERED ANALYSIS OF TLC}

Overall: Scummy
I don't want to start a bandwagon without having any discussion first, but TLC is looking pretty scummy to me.
FoS: TLC

Hits on TLC as possible scum.
I need to have a look at my own analysis to see if I agree.

Looks like due to the short D1 we have very little to work with here, so even though I'm not completely satisfied with it, I'm going to do this anyways
Vote: TLC

Votes on TLC

Okay, it seems to me like we essentially have a 2nd day 1 because we didn't really get much information from Infina's lynch. However people also seem hesitant to vote with little info like they would on Day 1. So, at risk of sounding scummy for trying to hurry things, I'm going to suggest that we just pick a player and lynch them.
The players who have been FOS'd, and I therefore consider lynch candidates
TLC: FOS'd by myself for using false logic in the miller discussion
BN: FOS'd by Misnomer and Nyssa due being named by Infina
Myself: FOS'd by Electric Haze for the same reason

I'd feel more comfortable with the TLC lynch because I'm inclined to think Infina was just throwing out wine, but I could also go for the BN lynch. I think that in the end, Misnomer needs to take leadership because we can all trust him.

He has already VOTED on TLC and then states that he has simply FoS'd him.
Could be scum, hoisted by his own admission. Ignore the DEADLINE. The more we talk, the more it wil be extended.

VERDICT: Some confusion in there, but nothing stand-out (ish).

ANALYSIS: TLC

Spoiler:

I'll read this whole block of texts in a later moment. But I guess it's a free time so wait for me!

Nothing

I don't know about your claim Misnomer, We could had had a little D1 chat first before roleclaiming, so pings of scum might have been clearer. But we can't go back in time can we?

So arduous and infina argued with each other, and Bignose had probably said everything about miller claims. I think the miller should claim. I don't know what will we do after that.
Isn't keeping the miller alive an anti-town move? It provides a lot of wine.
We could just ignore the miller and hope that the miller acts townie enough so he isn't copped. It's good meta-game-wise too.

Anyway that's some thoughts for me.

Strange contradicting words. Yes the Miller should claim, but keeping him alive is anti-Town (only if he didn't reveal himself) and hopes the Miller plays Townie (which he is and would anyhow).

Self-voting is suicide for most of the time. Infina's self vote is interesting though.

Next, if I was scum, why would I continue to do things to make me stand out? The goal of scum is to hide, correct? I'm just a little to easy to find stuff in each post. Although, this would be my first time getting lynched for something I did. It might be fun. Lets try it.

I dunno, Is this infina's attempt to spread wine? Infina's defenses are too obnoxious to sound townie.

Some late response:

Mea culpa. The impression I got from past games was that a Miller either needs to claim early on the first day or not claim at all. And since there seemed to be such an early clamour for the Miller to reveal, I thought I'd best do so.

This is my first time playing with a miller, so I'll appreciate that wisdom.

Surely lynching a player on the town's side is more of an anti-town move?

Of course lynching the miller is outrageous. But doctoring the miller wouldn't make sense. scum needs to NK the doctor and the cop, not the miller.

Strange analysis of Infina. Self-voting is not spreading wine, it's suicidal EVERYTIME.
A little excessive in his defence (outrageous) of a Miller lynch.

Defense of me.
Is it really bad to switch to ideas? Vote-hopping is a scumtell, but ideahopping.

Another just plain incorrect statement. Like arduous said, the doctor should protect whoever they think is most likely to be NK'd, and the miller was a good guess because scum do want the miller deadSlightly Scummy

I get some explanation, but if arduous said to the doctor that they should protect the miller, then the mafia won't NK the miller since town's going to protect him. Mafia would at most try to kill cop or doctor. Killing a miller isn't really better than NKing vanilla towns.

The first line appears to suggest that the self vote was not Scummy? It looked pretty scummy to me, and everyone else. Slightly Scummy

I thought that self-vote is like his last act to act zerker-like townie. I haven't been reading this days since next day is final exams day.

I hope you even consider this defense since I won't be able to this week.

I really hate how I always post in mafia just to defend my posts. I guess bad players won't enjoy mafia well.

nothing that I find exceptional here.

I'm still going to stand ground my original opinion:

Isn't keeping the miller alive an anti-town move? It provides a lot of wine.

First, I'm not talking about lynching the miller, but staying alive.

and I was trying to question this:

So whoever is the doctor, ought to consider protecting the miller tonight.

This instruction invalidates the strategy.
Also,

But doctoring the miller wouldn't make sense. scum needs to NK the doctor and the cop, not the miller.

BigNose also had thoughts about this:

Should the Doctor save the Miller if he is the only claim? The Doctor should be aiming to save the cop, but at D1, that is an unlikely target, so probably for N1, Doctoring the single-claim Miller is probably correct.
The problem with that is that the scum now have a greater chance of getting the Doctor or Cop, as the Miller gets written off the NK list.
Certainly, if the scum claim Miller, then the real Miller MUST counter-claim and hope he avoids the lynch.

I really must ask why, does doctoring a miller better than doctoring anyone else. He's equal to a vanilla townie at most. Plus I don't think the mafia wants to kill the miller. He has no chance to block, special abilities or anything. Plus, because mafia now knows who is the miller, then they have 2/8 chance to get another power role. And since they have a nightkill, at Day 2 they have even more chance to get a power role (e.g. look at what happened today!) Why would they waste chances?

Anyway some of you would think this is mere hindsight, but I really, really believe that doctoring the miller wouldn't make sense at D1.

A bit disjointed, but it seems valid.

VERDICT: There is potential for scum indications, but as I find quite a bit of his posts disjointed, it's difficult to be more certain.


If push comes to shove, then I would vote for TLC, but I consider we are a long way from that.

[tastelikecoke]

I think the reasoning here is pretty weak. Infina was just throwing out wine left and right, and I don't think we should lynch based on that when TLC was actually acting scummy.

Two-fry, that's the last straw, man. Last straw man. You keep dismissing everything I posted as a scumtell. And no, you didn't even consider my last post that is supposed to be my defense. (in fact, only meaty seems to have noticed it. EDIT: Bignose also did.)

Vote: Two-fry

[Dr Ug]

Votals!

two-fry (3): ElectricHaze, Misnomer, tastelikecoke

6 to lynch.

[<nyssa>]

Ahaha, oh dear, my vote didn't count because I didn't spell out Big Nose properly, I am guessing. Probably for the best, I was in a bad mood and I need to read all this again and see if I can see the reasons for this Two-Fry wagon. If I can't I will be voting for Big Nose for realz.

[Dr Ug]

Nope, it was because I missed it somehow. Abbreviations when unambiguos are fine:

Votals!

two-fry (3): ElectricHaze, Misnomer, tastelikecoke
BigNose (1): <nyssa>
TLC (1): two-fry

6 to lynch.

[Two-Fry]

I also voted TLC

[Two-Fry]

Ahaha, oh dear, my vote didn't count because I didn't spell out Big Nose properly, I am guessing. Probably for the best, I was in a bad mood and I need to read all this again and see if I can see the reasons for this Two-Fry wagon. If I can't I will be voting for Big Nose for realz.

The reasoning is that Infina FOS'd me in one of his posts, and then never mentioned me again.
I'm simply going to say again that we should not be lynching based on what Infina said when TLC is actually acting scummy.
Also, a question for those who voted for me: when I turn up town, are you going to lynch Big Nose next? Because if you do, you're likely putting us at LYLO (Newbies: LYnch or LOse) based on guessing at Infina's intentions.

[Dark Loink]

So, three people being attacked. Two-fry the most, big nose a little, and TLC by two fry. Big nose I wasn't sure about, but I decided in my previous post that TLC and Two-Fry were townie. Reasons for Big Nose and Two Fry trace back to infina...
Now then. The first point we need to address, followed by others.
1.Infina was trying to spread wine:
This is pretty much a no-brainer. Although if he was trying only to survive, at the very least wine was being spilt in the process. Otherwise we wouldn't be having this conversation.
2.Infina was trying to help/bus a scumbuddy.
The reason is that this works two ways. If we assume that BN or Two-Fry were scumbuddies with infina, then if infina lynched one who was scum, guess what? That would give him a record, why would scum lynch scum D1? "That would be stupid, infina is obviously town."
And if it failed, and infina was lynched, there would probably be people who wouldn't think that he would FoS scumbuddies randomly. Therefore, they are safe.
But this is assuming that Two-Fry and/or BN are scum, which leads us to
3.Infina was trying to spread suspicion onto random townies:
Infina is sure to be lynched, he was acting a lot different than when he was scum ever. So, thinking fast, he decided to randomly throw suspicion onto someone he knew was a townie (everyone who he was told he wasn't working with) because now this person would not be able to be alive without wine, since Infina wasn't the godfather, so not even a COP could clear it all away. In fact, a town cop may lead to more suspicion. So Infina wanted wine that would last the rest of the game.

I'm not sure what I think is right. 1 is correct, but 2 and 3 conflict. I will think more about this (remember, both could be same, both could be different alingments.)
The main thing that scares me is the When you lynch me and I come up town arguement. Because that proves..nothing, because scum or town, you would say that.
And now sleep. Reasons not to post in mafia late at night.

[phlip]

Yeah, that's basically what I was saying before: untangling the WIFOM is hard, guys. I don't really have any feel for how many levels up infina was thinking here. Which is, in itself, the point I guess.

I will say, though, that if it's your option 2, then I think it'd be Two-Fry over BigNose... EH's reasoning seems reasonable to me, plus 2F's last post pings me a little (nothing conclusive, but explicitly claiming town rubs me the wrong way, as does claiming BN is also town... there's only a few people who could be sure of BN's alignment, after all...). I do think we should be suspicious of anyone who thinks they know for sure how many layers of wine there was in infina's statement... since the scum would know whether he was pointing at other scum or not, but the best the town can do is informed guesses. Even EH, who's the biggest proponent of your option 2 was mostly talking in terms if "it's probably this" or "it could be that"... 2F seems to be sure it's your option 3. Of course, he knows his own alignment, but if he's town he should be as unsure of BN's alignment as the rest of us.

But as I said, that's all if it's option 2... I'm not convinced it can't be option 3 yet. I'll need to watch a bit longer before I vote. But I am leaning towards a vote for 2F...

[BigNose]

. .
(nothing conclusive, but explicitly claiming town rubs me the wrong way, as does claiming BN is also town... there's only a few people who could be sure of BN's alignment, after all...). . .

Exactly which FEW are you referring to?
Are you trying to insinuate that I am Scum?

FoS: Phlip

[phlip]

Huh? No. You and the scum know your alignment... that's true whether you're scum or not. I was trying to insinuate that 2F was scum, not you.

[BigNose]

OK no probs

UnFos

PS Scum insinuate, Town state with reasons.

[Two-Fry]

Huh? No. You and the scum know your alignment... that's true whether you're scum or not. I was trying to insinuate that 2F was scum, not you.

I did not mean to say that BN is certainly town, just that I think he likely is (or at least does not seem scummy to me). In any case, my argument remains the same:
A) If both me and Big Nose are lynched and are town, we will be at LYLO. I don't that's a smart risk to take.
B) Infina was spewing wine in all directions, do we really want to base our strategy of of what he said?
C) TLC was actually acting scummy, whereas the main argument against me is based off of an interpretation of Infina's wine

[phlip]

PS Scum insinuate, Town state with reasons.

Yeah, I know. At the time I didn't think I was being that obscure. Sorry if that wasn't the case.

[tastelikecoke]

I thought this game would be very fast because of D1. Everyone totally become indecisive at the start of D2. Taking too long to lynch only lead us to misaligned conclusions. (being very quick is another case, but that's not my point.) Secondly, we never even reached page 4 yet. are you people still alive?

[Two-Fry]

Could we get a replacement/Modkill on blackfuse81?

[Misnomer]

I'm not sure there's much to be gained by keeping the day going any longer. As has been said, we are effectively in a Day1 situation - there's nothing on which any solid lynches can be based. I think those of us who have yet to vote should probably just go with their instincts for now, so the day can end and the game move on. It's a far from ideal situation, but reserving judgement indefinitely in the hope of a scum slip-up is unlikely to get us anywhere...

[BigNose]

I'm not sure there's much to be gained by keeping the day going any longer. As has been said, we are effectively in a Day1 situation - there's nothing on which any solid lynches can be based. I think those of us who have yet to vote should probably just go with their instincts for now, so the day can end and the game move on. It's a far from ideal situation, but reserving judgement indefinitely in the hope of a scum slip-up is unlikely to get us anywhere...

There is ALWAYS something to be gained by keeping a Day alive, especially without a lynch candidate.
Only scum want to end it early.

Until I can look back over you properly:

vote: Misnomer

[Misnomer]

I'm not sure there's much to be gained by keeping the day going any longer. As has been said, we are effectively in a Day1 situation - there's nothing on which any solid lynches can be based. I think those of us who have yet to vote should probably just go with their instincts for now, so the day can end and the game move on. It's a far from ideal situation, but reserving judgement indefinitely in the hope of a scum slip-up is unlikely to get us anywhere...

There is ALWAYS something to be gained by keeping a Day alive, especially without a lynch candidate.
Only scum want to end it early.

Until I can look back over you properly:

vote: Misnomer

Lolwut? I'm confirmed Miller.

unVote: two-fry
Vote: BigNose