I didn't really want to post this near the bottom of a page, but with the discussion stagnating a bit, it's time to get it out of the way. My accusation will come later today (I want to be able to write it up thoroughly.)
The Somnambulist Mass Cop Claim Manifesto
"If both cops die N1, we don't have to worry about it!" -- The New York Times
My fellow Amnesiaville residents! ...blah blah blah.
Each day, every player should claim: "If I copped someone last night, it was [name], it came back [result], and I have had the cop ability since [night]". You can abbreviate it "Cop claim: [name], [result], been a cop since [night]". A real town cop should claim exactly what their real results are. A town non-cop should fabricate claims in order to protect the real cops. A scum or independent player, even if they're a cop, should make up whatever claim they want to try to look like town, because we're gonna ignore their results no matter what.
Onto business. Let's dissect the claim a little:
- Each claim includes a player name.
- Real cops should name the player they actually targeted on the previous night.
- Fake cops should claim a random player that they might have targeted, but probably not who they actually targeted.
- Since players should target anyone they think is scummy, pick a random person that you have at least some suspicion for, so that it'll be believable that you might have targeted them.
- Don't entirely rule out claiming your real target - if a few people fake-claim their real target, then a scum Watcher won't be able to detect a real cop just because they claim their real target.
- Each claim includes a cop result.
- Everyone should claim "town" or "anti-town" for the cop result.
- It's possible that a real cop can give a separate "independent" result, but we're assuming that independents are anti-town.
- If any town-neutral independent wants to speak up TODAY and claim their win condition, so that we don't have to assume you're a villain, please do so.
- Real cops should claim "town" on a town result and "anti-town" on a scum or independent result. We're not including an "independent" claim because that could make it very obvious whether someone is actually a cop.
- Fake cops should claim "town" if their guess is that the named player is town and claim "anti-town" if their guess is that the named player is scum.
- If not many players have claimed "town", favor an "town" claim so that a real anti-town result doesn't stand out from the list.
- If not many players have claimed "anti-town", favor an "anti-town" claim so that a real anti-town result doesn't stand out from the list.
- Each claim includes a duration.
- Obviously, everyone will claim "since N1" on D2.
- Real cops should claim the earliest night from which they've had a usable cop result on every night since. If it's D4 and you got cop results N1 and N3, but not N2, claim "since N3". If it's D4 and you got cop results N1, N2, and N3, claim "since N1".
- Fake cops should make something up, but try to look consistent.
- If not many players have changed their claim since the previous day, change your claim so that a real cop who lost their ability doesn't stand out from the list.
- If most of the players have changed their claim since the previous day, claim the same night you claimed the previous day so that a real cop who actually still has their ability doesn't stand out from the list.
"But what if I really did cop someone, and then lost the ability? I won't show up as cop, so how will people know my results were real?" - Townie McFormerCopWell, Townie, that's where you claim for real! Specifically, if you received a cop result once and then didn't receive one on a subsequent night, and the morning message doesn't say a cop was blocked, it's very likely that you've been switched. At this point, you'll probably already have switched with someone else, who might very well be a mirror, so you won't be a safe target for scum, and you can freely claim the truth of your earlier results without any negative consequences whatsoever. The exception is if a switcher was blocked on the night you didn't receive cop results, but it's still probably safe to claim, since you could easily have been one of the switchers who didn't get blocked.
"What if I got rolecop results? Or watcher results?" - Townie McMakingThingsComplicatedIn that case, you're not a real cop, and in fact, we don't
want your results to be public (unless they're very incriminating under the circumstances.) Make up a fake claim like everyone else does. Don't worry - When you die, we'll know you're not a cop, and we can safely ignore your claims.
"So... how does this help us? I mean, suppose a cop snuffs it..." - Townie McMorbidAhhh. Then there are several possibilities.
- They could have been an anti-town cop. Then you laugh and celebrate! Pity about the loss of the cop ability though.
- They could have been a town cop, but with a morning message from the last night saying that a cop was blocked. In this case, there's a half chance (if there were still two cops left) that their claim was a false claim, and so the information isn't very reliable (but not to be entirely discounted).
- They could have been a town cop with the previous morning's messages not mentioning any cops being blocked. It's possible, but quite unlikely (about a 1/5 chance) that they had recently been a switcher instead, and switched with a cop on the previous night. If there's a report that switchers were blocked, it's even less. Unfortunately, there still may be an unknown chance that a cop was blocked and it wasn't reported.
- If any of their results is "anti-town", the town should almost certainly lynch the copped-as-anti-town player. A 4/5 chance of hitting scum is highly enviable (and it may be more than 4/5, because it might be a fabricated anti-town result on an actual anti-town player.) In the unlikely case that we lynch town by doing this, at least we know that their other results, if any, were bogus.
- "Town" results aren't as useful, since they only mean "Town or unblocked anti-town mirror or the cop wasn't real". They're still somewhat exonerating evidence, though, especially if we lose any Mirror or Switcher roles early on.
"Bwa ha ha! I will manipulate your results through my choice of kills and targets!" - Scummy McScummersonNuh-uh, buster.
- As long as the scum haven't coordinated with their whole team, they have no idea who the real cops are.
- If someone fake-claims a scum result on a townie, the scum can't tell it's fake, because they don't know who the other scum are.
- If someone fake-claims a town result on a scum player, the scum can't tell it's fake, because they don't know who the Mirrors are.
- If someone fake-claims their target, the scum can't tell it's fake unless they had the Watcher ability and used it on the right player, an even that probably only rules out one fake claim.
- If someone fake-claims the duration they've had the ability, the scum can't tell it's fake because they don't know who the Switchers are.
- What's more, the scum are limited in their ability to falsely claim cop in later in the game, because they can only claim things that they already chose on earlier days.
- The scum can't manipulate the results very much because - well, I don't really want to do the scum's work for them by telling them how they can (very slightly) manipulate the results.
A majority of players have spoken in favor of this plan, and it only awaits acknowledgement by the lurkers: Entropy, ThinkSweet, and Felltir.
Speaking of the game, has anybody actually done any analysis (or even criticism) of somebody based on more than their opinions on the mass copclaim?
