[TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 4 - Rise and Shine, Sleepyheads!

For your simulated organized crime needs.

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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 1 - Zzzzzzz...

Postby Adacore » Sun Oct 10, 2010 11:11 am UTC

Ok, I guess it makes sense to give you one night to test the claim.

Unvote;

Vote: Lataro

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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 1 - Zzzzzzz...

Postby Aardvarki » Sun Oct 10, 2010 11:40 am UTC

The town argued lazily about who was good and who wasn't. In the end, they decided to put Lataro to sleep. Forever.

Lataro has been lynched.

It is now Night 1. It will last a maximum of 48 hours. Get me your night actions asap!
-Aa
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby Aardvarki » Mon Oct 11, 2010 4:56 pm UTC

Late the next afternoon, the denizens of Sleepytown awoke. All but two of them, that is. Lataro was no more, and apparently in the night, someone had sent Dr Ug off on a long walk off a short pier.

Sleepytown Times

Headline: Mavketl Sleeps all night!
Last night, sources report that Mavketl slept in extreme comfort on a plush pillowtop mattress. When asked to comment, Mav replied, "Who are you, and what are you doing in my house!?"

Obituaries:
Lataro was put to rest, permanently. He was vanilla town.
Dr Ug is sleeping with the fishies, see? He was vanilla town.

It is now Day 2. There are 9 players remaining.
Deadline in ~80 hours, so Thursday evening EST.
-Aa
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby Mavketl » Mon Oct 11, 2010 5:25 pm UTC

*snore*

Any news from the (claimed) cop?
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby ElectricHaze » Mon Oct 11, 2010 5:38 pm UTC

Other than that I got roleblocked, not really.

I will post what I think about the results of the night later, but right now I need some sleep, and I really need to finish writing a stupid program for class.
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby mpolo » Mon Oct 11, 2010 6:35 pm UTC

It seems like we just got a couple of townies confirmed -- Makvetl seems to be vanilla (with a couple of other possibilities, I suppose, but I find this the most likely). EH seems to have been telling the truth (or realized that a roleblock on a claimed cop was pretty likely).

I don't recall any movement towards Dr Ug at all yesterday. Of course we really only had two big lynch targets for most of the day.

In other news, I should be able to post more often than I expected -- I got freed to do my capacitation by e-learning.
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby Silknor » Mon Oct 11, 2010 6:58 pm UTC

I'm not so sure about Mavketl being "confirmed" town. I don't have any reason to suspect them, but I'm always on the look out for mistakes in logic. You point out that there's other possibilities, but since you don't actually say what they are, I'll list some options:

Mavketl is the Editor and did not use their ability, obviously the reporter would be able to deny this (not that they should, but they'd know)
Mavketl is the Roleblocker and did not use ability and was tracked by either. This of course means EH is lying, but it could either be EH lying because he's scum or because he's a non-cop townie and knows that he'd probably die without claiming roleblock.
Mavketl is the Editor and tracked themself (mod: what would happen if the editor tracked themself? same for the reporter if no editor action that night?)

Seperate from that question, I don't see any evidence that sheds light on EH's alignment. As of yet I don't see why he's scum over cop or vice versa. Mavketl is probably town though.
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby Aardvarki » Mon Oct 11, 2010 7:31 pm UTC

If the editor (we'll call him X) watches himself, the result will be "X visited X's house". If the reporter (Y) targeted himself and the editor withheld, the result would be "Y slept through the night".
-Aa
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby Mavketl » Mon Oct 11, 2010 8:25 pm UTC

This is kind of a hard post to write. It feels weird 'analyzing' myself.

Anyway, I'm kind of trying to maintain an external perspective here.

If ElectricHaze and me were both scum, I would not have cast the first vote (and voiced the first suspicion) towards him. I mean, if the mod hadn't been a tiny bit slow, he would have been dead. I guess bussing on D1 is not unheard of, but this would be really out of the blue and unnecessary.

If ElectricHaze would be town and I would be scum, I would not have tried to 'save' him after the deadline (when I read his cop claim).

So from my perspective, I'm not scum. Surprise! ;)

Obviously I also suspect ElectricHaze to be town, or I wouldn't have vote-switched on the last second. I'm hardly sure about it, though.



So, why Dr Ug for a NK?

1) Random. No information for us.
2) Something he said/did:
a) because scum doesn't like it
b) because scum wants us to think they didn't like it

Which leads us to: what did Dr Ug say?

He voted for ElectricHaze and voiced 'wariness' about Kellsbells. His other post is saying he doesn't believe ElectricHaze's cop claim and won't unvote. That's all.

I tend to think that option 2a would be way too obvious, so that leaves us with 1 or 2b. Of course there's always WIFOM in the 'too obvious to be true' scenario.



Other people:
Adacore and Silknor seem to be acting the most townish, closely followed by mpolo, just because they're talking the most and not doing anything particularly suspicious. That's hardly a guarantee, of course.

Not A Raptor hasn't done much except for the "roleblock meeee!".

AngrySquirrel hasn't voted for anyone (or accused anyone) after Kellsbells. Ironically, she said in that post that it's not very useful to not have opinions on people. I'm going to throw it on "she's just busy" for now, though.

RoadieRich has made a grand total of one post, FoSing ElectricHaze and little else.

Kellsbells threw a FoS back at AngrySquirrel and that's it for the suspicion/voting. She asked ElectricHaze for an explanation but did not vote or respond after that.

The last four people are obviously kind of hard to read so far (for me, anyway), but I'm sure things will get better as the game progresses. I just didn't want to leave anyone out.
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby mpolo » Mon Oct 11, 2010 8:27 pm UTC

Well, that's essentially what I was saying... the other options were more complicated than her being town. But you are right, we can't fully cross her off the list of possible scum.
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby Mavketl » Mon Oct 11, 2010 8:28 pm UTC

Hee hee... ninja. :mrgreen:
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby mpolo » Mon Oct 11, 2010 8:29 pm UTC

EBWOP: The above was ninjaed. (Preview fail.) I was more responding to Silknor…

EBWOPreview: Ninjaed again.
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby Adacore » Mon Oct 11, 2010 8:51 pm UTC

I'm away at a conference until tomorrow evening. I'll post more then.

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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby AngrySquirrel » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:07 pm UTC

I've been a bit busy yes. Also I got a concussion today so I'm having some issues with lucidity. However I shall attempt to write down what I think about this game and the players so far.

These are the people I'm leaning on to be townies:
Silknor - Generally getting a towny vibe from him. But since he's a rather good player that don't have to mean much. Overall though he feels pro-town.
ElectricHaze - claimed cop, I believe the claim. Nuff said.
Not A Raptor - Trying to confuse scummies. Good guy.
AngrySquirrel - me! I know what I am so there's no point in me talking about me cause it just adds wine.
Mavketl - I think pro-town due to newspaper
RoadieRich - he better pipe up. His one post did make me feel good about him though (start of the day with a FoS and I'm happy) but if he keeps quiet much longer that inital goodwill will be lost.

Which leaves, by process of elimination:
mpolo
Kellsbells
Adacore

as people that I find likely to be scum.

RoadieRich and Silknor are my big blindspots, Silknor by being a good player and RoadieRich by BEING WAY TOO QUIET START POSTING OK!!?

So, with this in mind I decided to take a closer look at the 3 people currently on top of my scummy-list:
mpolo - generally a bunch of safe posts. Follows EH's vote on Lataro, pretty much a safe vote as well. Scumbells ringing here.
kellsbells - comes off as more aggressive than mpolo (good thing), although sticking to FoS's as far as I can tell. Undecided as of yet.
Adacore - downplays the effect of the turture-ability, overlooking the roleblocker, is aggressive, votes lataro, unvotes, votes EH, unvotes EH, votes lataro, vote jumping between two people where we know one was town and I at least believe the other one is well, could be eagerness to get a lynch in, could be scum knowing that no matter who is lynched it's going to benefit them. Suspicious.

In the end however mpolo is the only one that really strikes me as quite likely to be scum. Others I'm more undecided on still.

Vote: mpolo

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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby AngrySquirrel » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:32 pm UTC

EBWOP: In retrospect throw RoadieRich up on that list of people I find quite likely to be scum, top of the list right after mpolo.
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby RoadieRich » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:49 pm UTC

Mavketl wrote:If ElectricHaze and me were both scum, I would not have cast the first vote (and voiced the first suspicion) towards him. I mean, if the mod hadn't been a tiny bit slow, he would have been dead. I guess bussing on D1 is not unheard of, but this would be really out of the blue and unnecessary.

(Bolding mine.) Umm... You didn't, I did. You pretty much say so yourself:

Mavketl wrote:RoadieRich has made a grand total of one post, FoSing ElectricHaze and little else.


That leaves two options, one that it was an honest mistake, which I know I make, but seems out of kilter for what I've previously seen of Mav, two that Mav was banking a "hey, I was wrong, actually RoadieRich was first to point fingers at EH, he must be scum" to distract attention if/when suspicion mounts on her, or three they are both scum and Mav is pouring out a fair bit of wine, including a pretty good example of WIFOMIFOY.

I may have missed a forth, or further possibilities, but taken with the common reason for someone seeming off kilter being that they're scum, I'm going to
FoS: Mavketl.

Apologies for my lack of posting: it has been a rather hectic night process in Somnambulist Amnesia. One scum player in particular had far too much to say, as far as I was concerned. I should be ok for about a week or so, then it'll be time for another night.
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby RoadieRich » Mon Oct 11, 2010 9:50 pm UTC

EBWOP: oops, I meant three options.
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby Mavketl » Mon Oct 11, 2010 10:30 pm UTC

Ack, you're right! In my defense, I went through all posts by each player like this, and thought your post was made much later than it actually was. Thanks for the apparently unjustified vote of confidence ("Mav would not make that mistake") and apologies.

That kind of weakens my I'm-definitely-not-scum argument a little. I still cast the first vote, though, does that count for something?
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby Not A Raptor » Mon Oct 11, 2010 11:43 pm UTC

The winds of fortune
Don't blow the same
Town had to get out
And make a change
Town had a night now
But much too young
That mafia scum's out having fun

Scum's saying
I'm on a roll
With all the townies I know
Scum's roleblock target
Just ain't so slow
Scum's saying
I'm on a roll
With all the townies I know
I know you wanna hit me
I know you wanna hit me hit me
All the world is gettin' with, I say
Consequences are a lot, but hey
That's the way it
That's the way things go

What was a town
Is now a shell
We're raising hell now
That raises itself
Roleblocker is a weapon
It's like a drug
It gets scum right into that grave that he just dug

Town's saying
I'm on the run
I'm chasing scum for fun
Town's lynch target
It ain't scum's only one
Town's saying
I'm on the run
I'm chasing scum for fun
I know you wanna hit me
I know you wanna hit me hit me
Everybody's gettin' with, I say
Consequences are a lot, but hey
That's the way it
That's the way things go

Well it winds up
Broken up
Really such a shame
But why not
Take a chance
Everything's a game
And it don't stop
Roleblocking
Nothing's gonna change
The more scum's trying
The more scum's dying

Scum says
I'm on a roll
With all the townies I know
Scum's roleblock target
Don't need to know
Scum's saying
I'm on a roll
With all the townies I know
I know you wanna hit me
I know you wanna hit me hit me
All the world is gettin' with, I say
Consequences are a lot, but hey
That's the way it
That's the way things go


HIT ME!


That said, if ElectricHaze got a cop off, it'd be great to learn the results. I'm not so kind toward RoadieRich as AngrySquirrel, as lurking is somewhat serious to me. Other than that, her list makes much sense. Especially Kellsbells. She's trying to win, you know. ;) (In seriousness, Kells is the least of the three AS fingered that I suspect. mpolo and Adacore are scummier than her by miles.)
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby kellsbells » Tue Oct 12, 2010 7:49 am UTC

Not A Raptor wrote:Especially Kellsbells. She's trying to win, you know. ;)
:D Even I had forgotten that meme! But it's true. I play to win, guys. *serious face* LONG POST TO FOLLOW:

Forgive my lurkiness (school projects, blah blah, the usual real-life stuff). As things that have gone on so far, and the suspicions currently raised, I have this to say: Dr. Ug's death seems fairly arbitrary. The voting and accusations on D1 fell so neatly into two camps (Lataro and ElectricHaze) that most of the other players were fairly uninteresting by comparison. I'm guessing that Dr. Ug getting NK'd rather than, say, ElectricHaze, is one of two things. 1, EH is telling the truth and was roleblocked instead, or 2, EH is lying scum and killed the first person who expressed some (pretty heavy) disbelief of his cop-claim. It's quite possible that Dr. Ug was just a random choice, since the only thing he did do that I noticed was scoff at EH. I'm not going to delve too deeply into the WIFOM scenarios that crop up here so easily.

As far as myself appearing on several "suspicion" lists this morning, I am not sure why not leaping on a bandwagon makes me appear scummy. It sure would if Lataro had turned up scum, but that is not the case. Anyone who's played with me before (I know it's been a while, sorry) knows I dislike bandwagons and am always very cautious with my voting. I don't like to toss casual votes around when I have little basis for them. EH pinged the hell out of me with the cop-claim, but it was a pretty big bluff to call in case he was telling the truth, so I waited.

I've been reading over people's responses this morning, here's what I'm generally thinking about those.
EH's first post: a little blasé for me, personally. I know you're busy but after your HUGE CLAIM, I expect a bit more. Questionable.
mpolo: bit of an oversimplification, I don't see why EH's name is cleared.
Silknor: exactly what I thought of mpolo's post, raised some very good questions. I, like everyone else, like this post.
Mavketl: nice, analytical post. He thinks mpolo is non-scummy, contrary to what AS thinks.
Adacore: thanks for the I'm-not-around update, but otherwise I wish he actually said anything.
AngrySquirrel: I like her process of elimination tactic, but I disagree in some areas. I personally find lurking (RoadieRich) a highly sketchy move. She also doesn't provide reasons for why she trusts EH, and I'd love to know why she does. Her analysis of Adacore made me go reread his posts, and I completely agree. He bandwagon-jumped like mad yesterday and I don't know why I didn't pay more attention to that. It's classic scum!
RoadieRich: pops in after accusations of lurking, does a minor bit of analysis that actually turns out to be entirely a defense of himself, then leaves with an FoS, just like yesterday. Suspicious to me indeed, especially because the FoS is predicated entirely on Mavketl making a small error that involved Rich himself.
Mavketl again: Apologizes to Rich, that seems pretty townish to me. But then again, he did try to claim credit for starting the suspicions. Either a small townie error, or a sneaky scum maneuver that Rich caught. Honestly I'm leaning towards the former.
NAR: Never have any idea what the hell he's up to, see my quote in his signature. Agree with him about Rich, happy he thinks I'm town.

TL;DR I think Adacore is the scummiest, for vote-hopping and a general lack of insight, followed by RoadieRich for deplorable lurking and jumping on Mavketl (who has more evidence for being town than most) for a simple mix-up. I still doubt EH's claim, I can't make up my mind if the roleblock is real or a very convenient bluff.

So for now, I'm going with FoS: Adacore. Pending more insight. I figure I should give him some time to get back from his conference and respond before I lay down a proper vote.
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby ElectricHaze » Tue Oct 12, 2010 8:49 am UTC

Hi, I'm back for a bit.

Thoughts:
I of course believe my claim so all that follows is based off that.
1. Since I was roleblocked that means everyone on the scum team was active except for possibly the editor. That means Mav is town except in the unlikely scenario that Mav is the editor and the reporter happened to target her. Pretty risky move for the scum for the editor to stay quiet since that leaves two of them vulnerable to investigation, and there would still be no guarantee that Mav would be targeted for the mad towny cred like that.

2. Dr Ug being killed means everyone who voted for me looks pretty much cleared except Adacore. Normally I would be suspicious that there is at least one scum to be found in group of votes that get up that high on day 1. Especially considering the bulk of the voting on me happened in like a 30min window right around the approximate deadline. The way night actions went down I can't decide whether it is scum making him stand out as a good lynch target for today, or if they are spilling wine around him to protect him.

Silknor - looks good, but I think he would see the advantage of holding off on specific commentary about town strat on newspaper results. His push for an in depth discussion seems off. He justified it well, but in the end I can't see that early discussion as anything, but helpful to scum. We could have had the same discussion when it became relevant due to a newspaper result, at which point I believe it would be much more beneficial to town. Also, refrained from voting.
mpolo - made my Lataro vote into a serious bandwagon by jumping on and bringing it up to 3 votes, then never came back and let it all unfold. Also, downplayed the torture ability early on day 1, and seems to be overly simplified in his analysis. Forgetting the roleblocker, leaving out various possible scenarios. Could be some lazyness in the analysis and simply overlooking things, or it could be because he is doing it from the scum side, which lends to lazy analysis because knowing a lot of what is actually happening makes it harder to imagine the more unlikely scenarios that could have happened but didn't... (That makes a lot more sense when it's in my head than it does when I write it down...)
Kellsbells - Kells has been playing really safe, hasn't had many (any?) strong opinions, never voted. In generally super conservative play seems to be a fairly good scum tell. Metawise I don't know enough (anything) about kells to say whether that is normal mode of operation, or something that should be looked into.
ElectricHaze - Cop. Town.
Not A Raptor - NaR is crazy, but I suspect it is similar to his first assassin game strat. Using his vanillaness to try and out the torture ability, or tie up the roleblocker. Could just as easily be a balls of steel WIFOM move, because as I mentioned before that guy is nuts, but I'm leaning towards town.
AngrySquirrel - Nothing stands out to me really, except the vote on kells, seems like it overlooked 2 people who I felt were probably lurking more (RR, and Lataro). Neutral feelings mostly.
Mavketl - Newspaper seems to confirm her town.
Adacore - The only person who voted for me that is left a complete mystery after the night actions. See item number 2 above.
RoadieRich - Was lurking hard during day 1, seems more like inactivity than anything like active lurking. Neutral.
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby mpolo » Tue Oct 12, 2010 10:03 am UTC

O.K. I'm being accused a lot at the moment.

My vote for Lataro was for the reason I stated. He essentially said that he wasn't going to post anything unless we all posted stuff for him to analyze. If everybody had this attitude, no game would ever go on. I didn't consider it a strong vote, and came back a couple of times (usually without posting) to see if it would be better to move my vote. During that time, a bandwagon started forming on ElectricHaze, who then claimed cop. At that point, I felt that it was better to keep my vote where it was, as anything else that I did would have made it more likely to lynch a claimed cop. I'm not exactly sure why I didn't post anything at that point -- I checked the thread, saw that I couldn't reasonably do anything except stand on my vote, and then went on to other things -- I think it was partly because I had been tending to check fairly late in the evening, and I really wanted to go to bed more than make a comment that only said "I'm keeping my vote here in the hope of saving EH".

I don't remember downplaying torture per se -- I think that it's a powerful (but one-shot) weapon in the hands of the scum. However, it is not all that likely that it will be used against the reporter (I think that's what I said before), so that that particular mechanic is relatively unlikely to come into play. It has the other effect of bypassing the doctor's protection, which is now the more important effect to be worried about. Not that I'm suggesting that the reporter should start dropping hints -- we're much better off with him hidden, so as to avoid .

I'm sorry that I didn't list the alternate explanations for Makvetl staying in bed. I realised that all of them were "she's scum" reasons, and they just didn't seem likely at the moment. I did very clearly state that there were other reasons possible for her showing up in bed. EH came to the same conclusion: Makvetl is likely town.

NaR is being crazy, but it's a townish sort of crazy, I think. He could be a doctor targeting himself, he could be the reporter, he could be totally vanilla. The other possibility is that it's an extremely gutsy scum move. Which, for him, I wouldn't totally discount, but I'm leaning the other way at the moment.

Silknor has been active and helpful. EH faults his discussion of the reporter/newspaper mechanics as primarily benefiting scum, but I don't really see it. I was buying the "town speculation is bad for town" line at the beginning of "Buffy", but with the open setup here, I think that any rules clarifications benefit both sides, and particularly the town, who is in the dark about so much.

The Dr Ug death is a bit mystifying. It doesn't seem to link back to anybody, except, as EH has said, a tenuous connection to incriminate Adacore. It would be good to hear more from Adacore here.

kellsbells is faulted for not voting, but both of the active targets appear to be townies at the moment, so I don't know that I'd call that a real failure. Hopefully she can be more decisive and help us find some scum today. She was pretty quiet on Day One in general, but seems to be turning around with the big post today.

AngrySquirrel was quick to vote on kellsbells, but otherwise reasonably townie. And bold play is supposed to be townie.

RoadieRich's inactivity is quite concerning.



Which has me looking at two persons, primarily: RoadieRich and Adacore. Of the two, an Adacore lynch would provide more information, simply because he has posted more. However, I'm holding off on a vote, as my reasons for suspicion are currently far too tenuous.
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby Silknor » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:25 pm UTC

Mpolo:
NaR is being crazy, but it's a townish sort of crazy, I think. He could be a doctor targeting himself, he could be the reporter, he could be totally vanilla. The other possibility is that it's an extremely gutsy scum move. Which, for him, I wouldn't totally discount, but I'm leaning the other way at the moment.


First, no doctor self targeting. Second, I see little utility in his craziness. Crazy wine and random things like that are similar to random voting on day 1. It catches the attention of everyone for a second, but only new players are going to get hung up on it, any experienced player knows to shrug it off. For those who haven't seen this crazy side of NAR, I'm basing most of this on the two games of dethy (same setup, just restarted). In one he was king, in the other a guard. In both he said that he's king, and both times people tried to kill him. He's been doing that ever since, but so far all I've seen from the strategy is a 50% win rate in a game moderately stacked town, which while hilarious to watch, wasn't that impressive a tactic (though you can rightly argue it being hilarious is all it needs to be impressive, damn actually winning!).

NAR:
That said, if ElectricHaze got a cop off, it'd be great to learn the results.


Not sure if you mean gets, but if it's got, he said he was roleblocked, one of the first posts of D2.

EH:
Since I was roleblocked that means everyone on the scum team was active except for possibly the editor. That means Mav is town except in the unlikely scenario that Mav is the editor and the reporter happened to target her. Pretty risky move for the scum for the editor to stay quiet since that leaves two of them vulnerable to investigation, and there would still be no guarantee that Mav would be targeted for the mad towny cred like that.


I know this analysis is decent if we take you at your word, but my views on this are like dethy. Analysis starting with "I'm town so therefore:" doesn't illuminate much as long as that person's alive. All it's really good for is the subtle repetition of "townie townie townie" that brings no useful purpose. Now you make legitimate points about Mav, I don't want to ignore that. But shrouding it in the lets start with the assumption of I'm town and was roleblocked and then neglecting to repeat that assumption through the rest of the analysis or raise the possibility that you're not town (or wasn't roleblocked) doesn't help.

Specifically about your analysis (granting your claims):
Allowing the reporter's claim to show up leaves one, not two players vulnerable to investigation.
There's two town power roles that might visit you: cop and doctor. Both have good reason to.

The godfather would be vulnerable, but that's a 1 in 8 chance of the reporter hitting the godfather. And while it's pretty likely the godfather would get lynched, there is the possibility that a cop would've hit the same target. Still, probably a dead godfather though. Ok almost certainly, even before your claim. Even a 50:50 shot at the godfather is probably worth it due to the cop-immunity and the fact that it hurts the other scum due to trackers if they have to carry out the kill and their other action. Given your claim it becomes virtually 100% chance of dead GF.

So 1 in 8 chance. But as we've seen, given the dominant assumption of editor action, the reporter's results coming through seem to create a good amount of wine. And obviously if Mav is scum, the gambit wasn't just mildly successful. It was possibly game-winning.

Specifically about your claims:
I think we can all agree you'd probably claim cop no matter what. Certainly if you're scum/doc/reporter. Maybe if townie. I'm inclined to believe it, but, lets not blind ourselves.
The roleblock claim is actually a good idea no matter what role you are. If you're lying about the roleblock, then I think you've found a pretty great strategy, so congratulations.
1. Scum. Lying about roleblock sets up the editor combo of investigating the roleblocker and making them look innocent.
2. Cop. Good chance you would've gotten a town result if you weren't roleblocked and were copped. Why say it? Claiming roleblocked can get you a pass to the next day where you might have a more useful result. Also probably creates some wine for scum.
3. Non-cop townie. Claiming roleblock validates your strategy. Admitting you're not cop but claiming you're still town is well...likely to end in your lynch.

The thing is if you're not cop, claiming roleblock is probably best (unless the editor or reporter went after the withholding night action roleblocker, but from your comments it seems like you didn't put much weight on that possibility). Actually reporting an investigation would be risky. It's possible the reporter could catch you in a lie, or you could get an alignment wrong (not miller/GF, actually wrong). And without much benefit to giving a result if it's town when you're cop, why report in either case? Plus, investigations get more useful as the game goes on, since once the GF or miller dies, you can completely trust one type of result.
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby Mavketl » Tue Oct 12, 2010 2:04 pm UTC

I'm going to try a new thing with this game. I have no idea if it will be helpful or super chaotic (or both).

Image
Solid line = vote
Greyed out = unvoted
Dashed line = FoS or explicit suspicion

Green = confirmed town
Red = confirmed scum (none so far)

Strike through = dead

Making the arrows less cluttered and less chaotic is definitely work in progress. :P


Side-effect of making that thing is that I noticed I don't have enough opinions. I'll try to do a more useful analysis post later today.
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby AngrySquirrel » Tue Oct 12, 2010 2:20 pm UTC

kellsbells wrote:AngrySquirrel: I like her process of elimination tactic, but I disagree in some areas. I personally find lurking (RoadieRich) a highly sketchy move. She also doesn't provide reasons for why she trusts EH, and I'd love to know why she does.

I trust EH because his claim seems legit. There has been no counterclaim and I tend to believe the simplest solution is the right one, until something convinces me otherwise (like a counterclaim or real cop dying). He claimed cop so ofc he's going to be roleblocked. And the other cases made against him so far I just don't find very convincing. So yea, atm I trust EH.

ElectricHaze wrote:AngrySquirrel - Nothing stands out to me really, except the vote on kells, seems like it overlooked 2 people who I felt were probably lurking more (RR, and Lataro). Neutral feelings mostly.

Lataro was already getting votes on him at this stage, I saw no reason to add to them. And RR I've explained, I disagree with him but at least he's providing us with who he is suspicious of.
mpolo wrote:Which has me looking at two persons, primarily: RoadieRich and Adacore. Of the two, an Adacore lynch would provide more information, simply because he has posted more. However, I'm holding off on a vote, as my reasons for suspicion are currently far too tenuous.

More information gained from lynching Adacore? Because he has posted more? So because he's active we should punish him because it will give us information? And what information do we get out of it if we're wrong? Nothing and we're worse off than we were before because now we're missing another active player. I'd rather take out the inactive one and look at who's getting nervous.

Silknor wrote:Mpolo:
NaR is being crazy, but it's a townish sort of crazy, I think. He could be a doctor targeting himself, he could be the reporter, he could be totally vanilla. The other possibility is that it's an extremely gutsy scum move. Which, for him, I wouldn't totally discount, but I'm leaning the other way at the moment.


First, no doctor self targeting. Second, I see little utility in his craziness. Crazy wine and random things like that are similar to random voting on day 1. It catches the attention of everyone for a second, but only new players are going to get hung up on it, any experienced player knows to shrug it off. For those who haven't seen this crazy side of NAR, I'm basing most of this on the two games of dethy (same setup, just restarted). In one he was king, in the other a guard. In both he said that he's king, and both times people tried to kill him. He's been doing that ever since, but so far all I've seen from the strategy is a 50% win rate in a game moderately stacked town, which while hilarious to watch, wasn't that impressive a tactic (though you can rightly argue it being hilarious is all it needs to be impressive, damn actually winning!).

This strikes me a bit like a warning to scum not to get hung up on NaR. There are other possible reasons however and it's flimsy at best. I just thought I'd mention it since I don't expect to last for very long in this game either now that I've started posting for real.
So slight FoS on Silknor if mpolo turns out to be scum, as I think he is.

Yea, I wish there was some way for me to point out exactly how scummy I'm finding mpolo to be right now. But I've already voted and there's nothing stronger I can use in this game to get my point across.
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby ElectricHaze » Tue Oct 12, 2010 2:50 pm UTC

One opinion, that I noticed is that it appears you don't believe silknor is playing this game. I can see where that can happen in regard to your chart in that I don't think he has expressed any suspicions of other players at all.

I have quite a few opinions, but my strongest ones are based off of what I believe is being setup by the night actions, namely Adacore, so I guess it is more of a who than a what. When we went into night 1 my biggest thought was, wow those votes on me came awful quick, I bet one of them at least came from a scum. In the morning everyone who was after me was a target of something except adacore. Obvious conclusion is that adacore looks pretty scummy. I don't believe things that are made that obvious, and that goes double for when I'm playing this game, so my revised thought is that Adacore is being set up as a lynch target to be pushed through today if it feels like people would lean that way, or after my death which, again assuming my claim is true, would make him more suspicious looking... also lingering suspicions that it is a bluff, and the strategy is to make him seem so obvious as to not be suspicious.

As this day has moved forward, I feel more comfortable in my opinion, as 2 of the 3 people I find most suspicious have listed Adacore as someone to watch. Those would be Kells, and mpolo. Kells I find suspicious because they are pretty active in this game, but for the most part have not provided anything of note, and kept to pretty safe opinions. Only big post comes today, and it has one of the big things I've been looking for in it. A FoS at Adacore. Also, doubts on my claim, but I'm biased there.
Mpolo i feel is pretty sketchy, they have also been a pretty active player, but with a lot of posts that don't say much. Just some very brief speculation on the torture ability, and newspaper results, and a vote on Lataro, due to "Attitude and approaching deadline". Pretty much the only post with content comes today in which he also pushes the idea of Adacore being suspicious.

AngrySquirrel is the only other one who listed adacore as suspicious, but topped it off with a vote against mpolo. Since I was suspicious of mpolo and neutral on AS. I mainly see this as a failure on AS's part to notice the wine that seems to be spilling around adacore, and so I keep them in the neutral position while moving Kells, and mpolo above silknor (My top suspicion until now).

Also, of note if you look closely there is a wonderful dance of buddying and distancing going on between all three. At least I seem to be noticing a subtle play between their relationships. I will post more on that later with relevant quotes that I noticed. I'm still not sure if it is actually something or if I'm just starting to go crazy from a combination of all the coding I've been doing lately and lack of sleep, so if anyone else has noticed that as well please let me know I'm not actually going insane.

That's it for now, but major FoS: kellsbells and mpolo
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby Mavketl » Tue Oct 12, 2010 3:18 pm UTC

ElectricHaze wrote:One opinion, that I noticed is that it appears you don't believe silknor is playing this game. I can see where that can happen in regard to your chart in that I don't think he has expressed any suspicions of other players at all.
Haha, that is such a dumb mistake to make. Sorry, Silknor! For some reason I thought this was a 10 player game, so I counted players to check if I was missing anyone. I'll fix it for the next version.

So, about Silknor: it's true that he doesn't seem to have a whole lot of suspicions or opinions on players. He's big on the logical analysis, which is nice, but it would be a lot nicer if the analysis would have some FoS-y conclusions. I get that that is hard at the start of the game, but there should be enough content now to generate some opinions. If he keeps up his current posting style/content, I would start finding it suspicious.

ElectricHaze wrote:I have quite a few opinions, but my strongest ones are based off of what I believe is being setup by the night actions, namely Adacore, so I guess it is more of a who than a what. When we went into night 1 my biggest thought was, wow those votes on me came awful quick, I bet one of them at least came from a scum. In the morning everyone who was after me was a target of something except adacore. Obvious conclusion is that adacore looks pretty scummy. I don't believe things that are made that obvious, and that goes double for when I'm playing this game, so my revised thought is that Adacore is being set up as a lynch target to be pushed through today if it feels like people would lean that way, or after my death which, again assuming my claim is true, would make him more suspicious looking... also lingering suspicions that it is a bluff, and the strategy is to make him seem so obvious as to not be suspicious.
This makes rather a lot of sense to me. I didn't consider the vote-hopping that suspicious, to be honest. The first vote was clearly a "let's get things started" kind of thing (which I explicitly asked for, so I'd be a total hypocrite to judge someone for that). He then unvoted the random vote, and switched to someone he actually suspected. When that someone claimed cop, he backed off. That makes complete sense to me.

As for the mpolo/Kellsbells thing, I did notice how they have voiced the same suspicions:
kellsbells wrote:I think Adacore is the scummiest, for vote-hopping and a general lack of insight, followed by RoadieRich
mpolo wrote:Which has me looking at two persons, primarily: RoadieRich and Adacore.
kellsbells' post was first, so it's possible that this 'connection' is unilateral from mpolo to kellsbells, I guess. However, this complete non-opinion on mpolo makes me doubt the unilateral thing a bit:
kellsbells wrote:mpolo: bit of an oversimplification, I don't see why EH's name is cleared

Up until his last post, mpolo seemed fine to me. He was being a bit inaccurate at times, but rather obviously so, which I don't think is necessarily a scum tell, just carelessness. The last post was a bit off, though. For starters: defensive much? Furthermore, it kind of says "everyone is town except for these two people", which doesn't even make much sense. I mean, there's there scum bastards out there. Also, Adacore doesn't get any reasons for the suspicion, just "well, everyone else is town".

AngrySquirrel wrote:This strikes me a bit like a warning to scum not to get hung up on NaR. There are other possible reasons however and it's flimsy at best. I just thought I'd mention it since I don't expect to last for very long in this game either now that I've started posting for real.
So slight FoS on Silknor if mpolo turns out to be scum, as I think he is.
If this was scum communicating to scum, wouldn't it be ever so much safer to save it for the nightly PMs? Why take the risk? I don't think mpolo's post was really... extreme enough for that.
That said, I think AngrySquirrel is town. Solid arguing, strong opinions. Not afraid to vote.

Not A Raptor wrote:That said, if ElectricHaze got a cop off, it'd be great to learn the results. I'm not so kind toward RoadieRich as AngrySquirrel, as lurking is somewhat serious to me. Other than that, her list makes much sense. Especially Kellsbells. She's trying to win, you know. ;) (In seriousness, Kells is the least of the three AS fingered that I suspect. mpolo and Adacore are scummier than her by miles.
Not A Raptor feels townie to me, but I'm not sure why. The scum-baiting doesn't really mean he can't be scum. He only has a few lines if we're not counting that marvelous Offspring cover (see above quote). There are opinions there, but not many reasons. I would love to see some more.

RoadieRich still kind of needs to speak up a little more. He FoSed ElectricHaze at the very beginning of the game, and me later on for a dumb mistake. I don't really hold that against him, since mistakes are suspicious at times, but I want to hear something more.

Vote: mpolo
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby Mavketl » Tue Oct 12, 2010 3:23 pm UTC

EBWOP to fix:
"I mean, there's three scum bastards out there."
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby AngrySquirrel » Tue Oct 12, 2010 3:42 pm UTC

ElectricHaze wrote:AngrySquirrel is the only other one who listed adacore as suspicious, but topped it off with a vote against mpolo. Since I was suspicious of mpolo and neutral on AS. I mainly see this as a failure on AS's part to notice the wine that seems to be spilling around adacore, and so I keep them in the neutral position while moving Kells, and mpolo above silknor (My top suspicion until now).

Wine makes me sick so I tend to avoid it if possible.

Mavketl wrote:If this was scum communicating to scum, wouldn't it be ever so much safer to save it for the nightly PMs? Why take the risk? I don't think mpolo's post was really... extreme enough for that.

Yes, probably, as I said it's a flimsy thing I just wanted to mention it while I'm still alive due to it being the few things Silknor has said so far that I can directly point at and say "Hey this seems a bit odd!". I'd rather say too much than too little at this point.

That said, reading through everything again I must say I pretty much agree with the sentiment that it seems Kells and mpolo are scum together, and while more unsure about the third I suspect it's either Silknor, RR or Adacore, with Silknor on top.
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby kellsbells » Tue Oct 12, 2010 4:35 pm UTC

I'm intrigued that I'm both getting roasted for not having an opinion, and then also having an opinion. Several people have found me suspect because I didn't vote, and that's fair. But now that I've been catching up and looking at everyone's posts (including AngrySquirrel's, who made the same comment before I did) I do quite honestly think Adacore has acted by far the most traditionally scummy. He vote-hopped, and hasn't said anything to clear his name since.

It's funny because if I voted right here, I'd probably get people calling "scum! look at that quick voting!" on me, but since I'm not, I'll get "see, she doesn't want to have any opinions to appear town-like!". Neither of which are true. That's bad play either way.

Now, back to the accusations, I do think mpolo's starting to look a lot more scummy than he did to me before. I glazed over his earlier posts because they honestly seemed pretty "meh" to me, and I found a lot more to question in Adacore's behavior and RoadieRich's silence. His almost word-for-word repeating of my post (without the decency of a quote or reference) is pretty damn scummy. It is interesting that we achieved total bandwagons yesterday without much accusations of those hopping on, and yet today it seems like the forces have really shifted.

AngrySquirrel wrote:I trust EH because his claim seems legit. There has been no counterclaim and I tend to believe the simplest solution is the right one, until something convinces me otherwise (like a counterclaim or real cop dying). He claimed cop so ofc he's going to be roleblocked. And the other cases made against him so far I just don't find very convincing. So yea, atm I trust EH.
This is fair enough, but I don't see why a true cop would've counterclaimed. Isn't is Mafia 101 to keep the cop secret as long as possible? It's less that I don't trust EH's claim and more that I found how he revealed it (early, and extremely hostile under duress) that bothers me.

Now I'm rereading the mpolo-Silknor exchange. First thing that leaps out at me is how mpolo forgot the doctor can't self-target. Now, this guy has been around and playing mafia since when I was still active. I absolutely can't believe he would forget one of the core game mechanics like that. I don't understand the purpose of him making such a rookie mistake, but I find it really suspicious. Couple that with the mimic of me, and yeah, mpolo's steadily climbing up my list of suspects. Which is, right now:

People Kells Is Suspicious Of:
Adacore
mpolo
RoadieRich
ElectricHaze
Silknor (I can't get a read on him, his lack of voting on anyone is kind of notably weird.)

To sum up: I think the suspicions being leveled at me are for disparate reasons, and the lack of looking further into the motivations behind votes before their targets get lynched is a bad way to play. Adacore still seems extremely scummy to me, but after reading today's posts, mpolo is coming a close second. He's made a lot of rookie mistakes and I just don't understand why. He's just not playing well. And RoadieRich is very suspect for both the lurking and for his single reappearing post that accuses Mavketl (the person most likely to be town at this point) for a tiny error. So there's my top three.
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby Mavketl » Tue Oct 12, 2010 4:40 pm UTC

kellsbells wrote:I'm intrigued that I'm both getting roasted for not having an opinion, and then also having an opinion.
It's not for "having an opinion", it's for "having that opinion". I don't think there's any contradiction there: if you don't post opinions, you give us nothing to judge you by. If you do post opinions, you do give us something to judge you by. We will then judge.

Note that I find mpolo rather more suspicious than you, because he's the one who is parroting you, so it's possible that this 'connection' is only one-way.

kellbells wrote:...if I voted right here, I'd probably get people calling "scum! look at that quick voting!" on me
Not from me, you wouldn't.
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby ElectricHaze » Tue Oct 12, 2010 5:04 pm UTC

ElectricHaze wrote:Also, of note if you look closely there is a wonderful dance of buddying and distancing going on between all three. At least I seem to be noticing a subtle play between their relationships. I will post more on that later with relevant quotes that I noticed. I'm still not sure if it is actually something or if I'm just starting to go crazy from a combination of all the coding I've been doing lately and lack of sleep, so if anyone else has noticed that as well please let me know I'm not actually going insane.

Actually, I think I'm just seeing things. After taking a break, and coming back it seems I got too close and let my suspicions turn into a bit of paranoia towards everything, but I mean it's not real paranoia if they actually are after you right? right...?

Anyways, here is what I was going on about, but it really looks thin now that I'm going over it again.

mpolo wrote:It seems like we just got a couple of townies confirmed -- Makvetl seems to be vanilla (with a couple of other possibilities, I suppose, but I find this the most likely). EH seems to have been telling the truth (or realized that a roleblock on a claimed cop was pretty likely).

I don't recall any movement towards Dr Ug at all yesterday. Of course we really only had two big lynch targets for most of the day.

In other news, I should be able to post more often than I expected -- I got freed to do my capacitation by e-learning.

Says stuff.

Silknor wrote:I'm not so sure about Mavketl being "confirmed" town. I don't have any reason to suspect them, but I'm always on the look out for mistakes in logic. You point out that there's other possibilities, but since you don't actually say what they are, I'll list some options:

Mavketl is the Editor and did not use their ability, obviously the reporter would be able to deny this (not that they should, but they'd know)
Mavketl is the Roleblocker and did not use ability and was tracked by either. This of course means EH is lying, but it could either be EH lying because he's scum or because he's a non-cop townie and knows that he'd probably die without claiming roleblock.
Mavketl is the Editor and tracked themself (mod: what would happen if the editor tracked themself? same for the reporter if no editor action that night?)

Seperate from that question, I don't see any evidence that sheds light on EH's alignment. As of yet I don't see why he's scum over cop or vice versa. Mavketl is probably town though.

You are overlooking things in the stuff you said fool.
mpolo wrote:Well, that's essentially what I was saying... the other options were more complicated than her being town. But you are right, we can't fully cross her off the list of possible scum.

I am shamed by your brilliance sir. You are correct, and have said what I could not, surely no one could ever question you.


kellsbells wrote:mpolo: bit of an oversimplification, I don't see why EH's name is cleared.
Silknor: exactly what I thought of mpolo's post, raised some very good questions. I, like everyone else, like this post.

Silknor, you are truely a man of wonder for saving us from the ignorance of mpolo.

mpolo wrote:Silknor has been active and helpful. EH faults his discussion of the reporter/newspaper mechanics as primarily benefiting scum, but I don't really see it. I was buying the "town speculation is bad for town" line at the beginning of "Buffy", but with the open setup here, I think that any rules clarifications benefit both sides, and particularly the town, who is in the dark about so much.

kellsbells is faulted for not voting, but both of the active targets appear to be townies at the moment, so I don't know that I'd call that a real failure. Hopefully she can be more decisive and help us find some scum today. She was pretty quiet on Day One in general, but seems to be turning around with the big post today.

Truely these are both shining examples of a true towny, why look at how helpful Silknor is being, and that kells has really come around with that last post, surely today she will oust the villains in our midst.

Silknor wrote:Mpolo:
NaR is being crazy, but it's a townish sort of crazy, I think. He could be a doctor targeting himself, he could be the reporter, he could be totally vanilla. The other possibility is that it's an extremely gutsy scum move. Which, for him, I wouldn't totally discount, but I'm leaning the other way at the moment.


First, no doctor self targeting. Second, I see little utility in his craziness. Crazy wine and random things like that are similar to random voting on day 1. It catches the attention of everyone for a second, but only new players are going to get hung up on it, any experienced player knows to shrug it off. For those who haven't seen this crazy side of NAR, I'm basing most of this on the two games of dethy (same setup, just restarted). In one he was king, in the other a guard. In both he said that he's king, and both times people tried to kill him. He's been doing that ever since, but so far all I've seen from the strategy is a 50% win rate in a game moderately stacked town, which while hilarious to watch, wasn't that impressive a tactic (though you can rightly argue it being hilarious is all it needs to be impressive, damn actually winning!).

Yet again you have overlooked something my good sir, otherwise just ignore the crazy person.

That's pretty much the dialog I have running through my head when I read their posts for today, and it even seems crazy to me. I wrote it before I went to class, and when I came back intent to post it and gave it a quick reread I nearly deleted it because it seems, well insane and paranoid, but I went through all the trouble of writing it up, earlier so I will post for your enjoyment.

Ninja'd
kellsbells wrote:Now I'm rereading the mpolo-Silknor exchange. First thing that leaps out at me is how mpolo forgot the doctor can't self-target. Now, this guy has been around and playing mafia since when I was still active. I absolutely can't believe he would forget one of the core game mechanics like that. I don't understand the purpose of him making such a rookie mistake, but I find it really suspicious. Couple that with the mimic of me, and yeah, mpolo's steadily climbing up my list of suspects. Which is, right now:

People Kells Is Suspicious Of:
Adacore
mpolo
RoadieRich
ElectricHaze
Silknor (I can't get a read on him, his lack of voting on anyone is kind of notably weird.)

To sum up: I think the suspicions being leveled at me are for disparate reasons, and the lack of looking further into the motivations behind votes before their targets get lynched is a bad way to play. Adacore still seems extremely scummy to me, but after reading today's posts, mpolo is coming a close second. He's made a lot of rookie mistakes and I just don't understand why. He's just not playing well. And RoadieRich is very suspect for both the lurking and for his single reappearing post that accuses Mavketl (the person most likely to be town at this point) for a tiny error. So there's my top three.

Foolish mpolo, how could you overlook a simple thing, and I grow weary of your clinging to me. Silknor, I have become disillusioned, your logic, lovely as it may be, has worn thin. I must know the thoughts you keep locked deep in your heart if I am ever to trust you again.
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby kellsbells » Tue Oct 12, 2010 5:13 pm UTC

Mavketl wrote:
kellsbells wrote:I'm intrigued that I'm both getting roasted for not having an opinion, and then also having an opinion.
It's not for "having an opinion", it's for "having that opinion". I don't think there's any contradiction there: if you don't post opinions, you give us nothing to judge you by. If you do post opinions, you do give us something to judge you by. We will then judge.
Okay, fair. I think I was getting a little worked up because I was so surprised to see all the suspicion leveled at me. *deep breath* Back to level-headed analysis now.

It also occurs to me that, now that we've got a claimed (and mostly trusted) cop, we could come to a consensus on who EH should investigate tonight, but then I remembered the roleblocker so cop actions are somewhat restricted. I hate to say it, but that makes a cop pretty useless until we get rid of the roleblocker. If the roleblocks continue (and I assume they will, who else do the scum know to roleblock?) then EH is essentially a sitting duck.
A good pun is its own reword.
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby kellsbells » Tue Oct 12, 2010 5:15 pm UTC

Oops, ninja'd by EH. Would comment on paranoia but am late for class.
A good pun is its own reword.
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby Not A Raptor » Tue Oct 12, 2010 10:03 pm UTC

Vote: Silknor

Because I agree with AngrySquirrel's assessment of his reaction to me. Also, what Kells said about his lack of voting. Take a stand, man. In fact, Silknor, if you escape the lynch tonight, I think it would be great if you roleblocked me. I think you're scum, by the way. Did I tell you that earlier?
Van wrote:I like simple games.

Like Wizardry.

WARNING: Is acting like NaR.
Kellsbells: NAR is a sillypants
Not_A_Raptor: :p
Kellsbells: That is my expert assessment

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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby Aardvarki » Tue Oct 12, 2010 10:14 pm UTC

Votals:

mpolo (2): AngrySquirrel, Mavketl
Silknor (1): Not A Raptor

9 alive, 5 to lynch. Deadline in ~50 hours.

FYI: For this game, the player with the most votes on them gets lynched at the deadline, there is no threshold required. In the event of a tie, there will be no lynch.
-Aa
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby Silknor » Tue Oct 12, 2010 10:24 pm UTC

AS:
This strikes me a bit like a warning to scum not to get hung up on NaR.


I'm not sure I understand. Mpolo is claiming that NAR's actions are townie. I'm saying they don't really lean either way and are really just useless (but maybe a bit funny, not as good as earlier games though, what can I say, I tire easily of the same joke). I'm not really sure how saying "ignore the crazy, it helps no one, including town power roles" is a warning to the scum. If anything it's a call on NAR to stop being useless and post something with real content.

Speaking of real content, there's 3 people I really have nothing on at the moment:
NAR (all I can remember from him is some crazy stuff I'm ignoring)
RR (all I can remember from him is saying Mavketl messed up on who was first)
Adacore (has this guy posted? I think so, but honestly I wasn't able to describe a single post of his until I looked them up, probably forgot since there hasn't been any real content since mid day 1)

Mav:
about Silknor: it's true that he doesn't seem to have a whole lot of suspicions or opinions on players. He's big on the logical analysis, which is nice, but it would be a lot nicer if the analysis would have some FoS-y conclusions.


Well I sadly can't FoS everyone for whom I've picked a hole in their reasoning. I've done it to enough people that I'd mess up your graph :)

More to the point though, it's obvious that some townies are making mistakes, so I need more. My main problem is that there's 3 people with little content or posts. Assuming scum and town are equally likely to play like that (which should be the default assumption, since the alternative is scum are bad and there's no reason to start with that assumption, underestimating opponents doesn't help), the chance that none of them are scum is: 1-6/9*5/8*4/7=24%. Now clearly those odds beg caution in proceeding too much without hearing something real from those 3. Missing out on hearing from 3 also denies us a decent number of possible connections or distancings (which since I've said this every single game since I came back, people are overly sensitive to). So for now I'm going to leave out the FoS (I actually never FoS, I tend to start an analysis and then vote after I find at least one other person agrees), but if I don't see some new content soon from some of those 3 I'll take a closer look at them.

Regardless of my thoughts about mpolo, I feel uncomfortable actually voting while still not having heard from 1/3rd of the players. But it's time to take a look at mpolo.
Nikc wrote:Silknor is the JJ Abrams of mafia modding

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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby Silknor » Tue Oct 12, 2010 10:31 pm UTC

Oooh double ninja'd.

NAR you're not big on giving much of a reason are you?

I already talked about AS' argument but about why I haven't voted yet let's see:
Yesterday contained two weak bandwagons. It's unsurprising that both were weak, given that one's a townie and one seems likely to be a townie.

If I can't encapsulate the reasoning behind a lynch, I'm not going to join it. I honestly don't know why Lataro was lynched, and the cop claim gives a good enough reason not to vote there. Anyway, going off of Mav's count since there's no official one: 6 people out of 11 voted yesterday, that leaves 5 who didn't vote (including you and kells, no irony there!). Sadly raptors only have 4 fingers! (I think?), so I guess I can understand your position partially.
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby Silknor » Tue Oct 12, 2010 10:42 pm UTC

This'll look a little bad if mpolo turns up scum, but in light of the vote on me and there being more than 2 days (I thought it was 1 or less left), I'm going to put off taking a look at mpolo. There's enough time to call on RR/Adacore, and NAR too still, to post.
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Re: [TM] Sleepytown Mafia - Day 2 - Yawn!

Postby Adacore » Tue Oct 12, 2010 10:59 pm UTC

I've not had time to read everything in the thread today (suddenly this game went uber-active today, after being really slow last week), but I note that I'm under some not inconsiderable suspicion. Not much I can do to refute that right now, but I guess I'll try and contribute some more analysis over the next day or so.

I will say that my initial vote on Lataro was entirely because someone requested a random/crazy vote to spur discussion and, I think in retrospect, my vote did exactly that. I didn't honestly consider Lataro all that suspicious, so switched my vote off as soon as a more legitimate target was suggested in EH. Then EH copclaimed (and was not counter-claimed), so I switched my vote off him to the only other lynch candidate, which was still Lataro (I suppose I can take a significant share of the blame for that). My final vote-switch was technically after the deadline time, I believe, and at that point I was motivated purely by the need to lynch anyone but the claimed cop.

So no, nothing I did yesterday was really based on my own analysis of players - I was merely trying to ensure we got a 'good' lynch by the deadline.

As I say, I've not done much reading today, except to notice that (a) my name has come up a lot (b) Kells has posted more and (c) why the hell did this game go into actual turbo-speed as soon as I wasn't actually around? I'll try and catch up with the game tomorrow and contribute some actual analysis - I completely forgot I was so busy at the start of this week, so joining this turbo was perhaps foolish of me - sorry y'all!


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