[T] MoA Replay - Game Over - Mafia wins - FBI loses

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 5 - 4 down, 12 to go

Postby Elvish Pillager » Sun Jan 16, 2011 11:11 pm UTC

By the way, I haven't actually used my investigation yet. So I'm a great candidate for reconversion!

Vote: Elvish Pillager

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 6 - 5 down, 11 to go

Postby MasterOfAll » Sun Jan 16, 2011 11:39 pm UTC

Final Vote Count

Elvish Pillager - 7 (Lataro, Mavketl, mpolo, ForAllOfThis, Weeks, Dr Ug, Elvish Pillager)

Elvish Pillager has been killed, was a Jester, and wins the game!

Oh, wait, that isn't right. Elvish Pillager was an FBI Snitch.


It is now Night 6. There are 11 of you left.

6 Votes needed to kill immediately, or 5 Votes at deadline

Deadline is 36 hours from this post.

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 6 - 5 down, 11 to go

Postby Brooklynxman » Sun Jan 16, 2011 11:46 pm UTC

*le sigh*

Vote: Dr Ug


Im not gonna get anything from him, he has been silent right up until i literally screamed at him to answer me. I assume this treatment has been universal. Anyway it worked, I can't betray anyone else. Mav will confirm this momentarily.

*grumble grumble*
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 6 - 5 down, 11 to go

Postby Dr Ug » Mon Jan 17, 2011 12:28 am UTC

BXM is lying. He must be the agent and have been "derecruited" unsuccessfully (unless he's lying about Mav confirming this - which seems unlikely). I am regular mafia, and if you lynch me it's game over (assuming all the recruits have gone through). We are currently at 11 players, likely 5 FBI (including the agent). If you lynch me, tomorrow we will be at 10 players, 6 FBI which is a win for them - even if the de-recruit hadn't been wasted on the agent.

Still, I think it was game over once Mav decided to lynch EP instead of derecruiting him.

Vote: Brooklynxman
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 6 - 5 down, 11 to go

Postby b.i.o » Mon Jan 17, 2011 2:47 am UTC

Dr Ug's been on my scum list since the beginning of the game. Brook's only really pinged me on N3. Since there's very little to analyze in this game what with it moving so fast, I'm going with my intuition.

vote: Dr Ug

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 6 - 5 down, 11 to go

Postby mpolo » Mon Jan 17, 2011 9:29 am UTC

Brook being a snitch explains a lot of my bad feelings about him. I suppose we'd better wait for Mav to confirm this before speed-lynching Dr Ug, though. It seems rather unlikely that Brook is lying, though.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 6 - 5 down, 11 to go

Postby Mavketl » Mon Jan 17, 2011 11:14 am UTC

Brook, whyyyyy? You know that I have PM powers, why did you feel the need to tell all of the FBI that you've jumped ship?

Anyhow, yes, I did convert Brooklynxman. And what with Dr Ug being on my 2-person shortlist from earlier, I'm thinking a lynch is in order.

Vote: Dr Ug
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 6 - 5 down, 11 to go

Postby cycoden » Mon Jan 17, 2011 11:53 am UTC

Let's do this...

vote dr ug
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 6 - 5 down, 11 to go

Postby ForAllOfThis » Mon Jan 17, 2011 1:11 pm UTC

That was close.

I'm also puzzled as to why you didn't conceal it and let Mav know privately. Would have been able to keep your identity a secret which would have been useful.

Vote: Dr Ug

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 6 - 5 down, 11 to go

Postby Weeks » Mon Jan 17, 2011 2:21 pm UTC

Mavketl wrote:Anyhow, yes, I did convert Brooklynxman. And what with Dr Ug being on my 2-person shortlist from earlier, I'm thinking a lynch is in order.
Wait, are you sure?!

Not to be a spoilsport, but...I thought you didn't get reconversion results, how are you so sure of this?

(And there's no way I can stop a lynch if it happens, but I'm just curious about this reasoning. Not that I can stop the godfather either. Perhaps you shouldn't say anything anyway.)
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 6 - 5 down, 11 to go

Postby Mavketl » Mon Jan 17, 2011 2:46 pm UTC

Weeks wrote:
Mavketl wrote:Anyhow, yes, I did convert Brooklynxman. And what with Dr Ug being on my 2-person shortlist from earlier, I'm thinking a lynch is in order.
Wait, are you sure?!

Not to be a spoilsport, but...I thought you didn't get reconversion results, how are you so sure of this?
Right, wrong phrasing, I suppose.

I did submit a conversion attempt on Brooklynxman.

If he is the Agent, he would be feeding us a townie and we lose.
If he is a Snitch, he is giving us the Agent and we stand a chance.

Doing it publically is stupid either way, so I'm going to write that off as lack-of-thinking rather than scumminess (sorry Brook :P). Anyhow, I think it's the best shot we have. If y'all think Brooklynxman is more likely to be the Agent, I guess you can vote for him instead. As I said earlier, though, I've been suspecting Dr Ug before Brook's claim, among other things for doing exactly what ForAllOfThis is doing above:

Dr Ug wrote:I agree with MaJ - Mav you should probably keep confirmed townies to yourself - after all, you're invincible. The knowledge isn't going to disappear.
Pointing out how something is anti-town after it already happened, while sounding smug and "haha I could totally benefit from this". If that would have been an actual investigation result, how would pointing out how stupid it was (after someone else had already commented on it) have benefited town?
ForAllOfThis wrote:I'm also puzzled as to why you didn't conceal it and let Mav know privately.
HEY GUYS I AGREE WITH ALL OF YOU TOWN HAS MADE A MISTAKE (this makes me town, right?!).

Yeah, I'm just throwing that out here for tomorrow's lynch, if there is going to be a tomorrow. :P
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 6 - 5 down, 11 to go

Postby weiyaoli » Mon Jan 17, 2011 2:51 pm UTC

Except if it was 6/6 yesterday, lynching a snitch gives us 6/5. They converted so it's 5/6. If Mav's conversion failed, we'd have already lost.

Fos weeks.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 6 - 5 down, 11 to go

Postby Mavketl » Mon Jan 17, 2011 2:53 pm UTC

Right, that too.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 6 - 5 down, 11 to go

Postby mieulium » Mon Jan 17, 2011 3:00 pm UTC

Mav's explanation has alerted me to something I've missed, you're right, Dr. Ug's tone in that sentence has a tinge of happiness.

Aye to the Godfather,

Vote: Dr. Ug
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 6 - 5 down, 11 to go

Postby mpolo » Mon Jan 17, 2011 3:26 pm UTC

The numbers make it much more likely that Brook was successfully converted rather than that he is the agent himself. It might be interesting to know when you were converted, Brook, as that should make it easier to mine past days for more information.

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 6 - 5 down, 11 to go

Postby Mavketl » Mon Jan 17, 2011 3:43 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:The numbers make it much more likely that Brook was successfully converted rather than that he is the agent himself.
Actually, the numbers make it absolutely certain that Brook was successfully converted. After 6 days, there would be 6 FBI and 5 town (there have been 7 FBI in total, but we lynched EP), which means FBI wins if the GF has no conversion left. Since FBI didn't win, the conversion was successful and we are 5 FBI / 6 town, soon to be 4/6.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 7 - 6 down, 10 to go

Postby MasterOfAll » Mon Jan 17, 2011 3:52 pm UTC

Let's see. I count 7 votes for Dr Ug, which is more than enough to kill immediately.

Dr Ug has been killed. He was the FBI Agent.


It is now Night 7.


There are 10 of you left.

6 Votes needed to kill immediately, or 5 votes at deadline.


Deadline is 36 hours from now.

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 6 - 5 down, 11 to go

Postby weiyaoli » Mon Jan 17, 2011 3:55 pm UTC

Sorry, my earlier post was on phone so I didn't vote for Dr Ug (Also why my fos wasn't bolded).

Yeah, that post from Weeks was a bit iffy:

Vote: Weeks
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 7 - 6 down, 10 to go

Postby Mavketl » Mon Jan 17, 2011 4:13 pm UTC

Right, sorry for the not-noticing-hammer thing. Genuine mistake, I promise.

I don't think there is any reason to be coy about stuff now that all 5 FBI should know who the other FBI snitches are and they don't have any actions, so here's the little information I have.

During D4, these investigation results came in:
Lataro investigated michaelandjimi and claims a "mafia" result.
Elvish Pillager investigated michaelandjimi and claims an "FBI" result.
michaelandjimi investigated cycoden and claims a "mafia" result.

Lynching michaelandjimi confirmed EP as FBI and Lataro and cycoden as loyal mafia in N4. There have been two more recruits since then, though. I don't think Dr Ug knew about these investigations, though he might've guessed the Lataro --> MaJ one. He apparently didn't go for the bait* (cycoden) before, so I don't think he did that in D5 or D6. If his reasons for not converting Lataro were rather meta about Lataro and me generally suspecting the hell out of each other, Lataro should still be town. If they were about subverting expectations and not recruiting a whole bunch of Capos, Lataro should be FBI now (it was pretty obvious that the investigations cleared him as town at that time).

I tend to think that weiyaoli is town for his rather annoying questions about optimal town strategy that I couldn't answer because I was deliberately saying or suggesting things that I knew I was never going to do / that never happened in order to try and deceive the Agent. He was the single most critical person in the last couple of days, challenging every stupid thing I said (but didn't mean). We know that Brooklynxman is town.

There were no successful protections: I was pretty sure that its most effective use was on Lataro or EP right after investigations. I had to make a choice before we knew maj's identity and I thought it was more likely that there were two FBI recruits among the Capos (Lataro and MaJ) than only one (EP), so I protected EP**.

Certainly town:
Mav
Brooklynxman

Probably town:
weiyaoli
cycoden
Mieulium - I might be falling for EP's wine here, but I think the whole "THEY ARE THE AGENT" was probably aimed at a townie. Also, sorry mieu, but Dr Ug seems to have avoided recruiting people who are easy lynch targets like BigNose (always pings everyone) or Chandani (new-ish here, so more likely to make mistakes/do things differently than we are used to) and if I'm not mistaken mieu is new-ish here as well.

That leaves one townie, which is Lataro or somebody else.

For reasons described above, I am most suspicious of ForAllOfThis and have been for quite a while, so:

Vote: ForAllOfThis

*Notice how Agent Dr Ug did not think I'm an idiot about disclosing investigation results while Townie Dr Ug was all condescending and weird about it? :P
**I'm posting this oh-so-reluctantly, because I suspect EP and Dr Ug will derive way too much enjoyment from it.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 7 - 6 down, 10 to go

Postby Mavketl » Mon Jan 17, 2011 4:16 pm UTC

EBWOP: We need everyone to get seriously active. I know it doesn't look good but it's entirely possible that we still win this. Heavy lurking could very well get you lynched, and if you're town that might cost us the game. So unless you're a Snitch, do. not. lurk.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 7 - 6 down, 10 to go

Postby weiyaoli » Mon Jan 17, 2011 4:31 pm UTC

The only problem I notice with that Mav, is that Lataro can still report a mafia result on Maj if he was actually FBI though I do guess that does make him being FBI (At least during D4) less likely:

e.g. Possible scenario is that Lataro used his investigation (queueing it from N3) and then got recruited D4 and he might as well then report truthfully (especially since EP actually falsely reported Maj already)

Unless there's something I'm missing about the whole thing?

Also, as far as I am aware, mieulium has been here a while, just not around recently though his lurking D1/N1 does also achieve the effect of someone who was carefully watched.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 7 - 6 down, 10 to go

Postby mieulium » Mon Jan 17, 2011 4:38 pm UTC

"She", not "he" please.

I am not that newish, took a hiatus due to uni semester. (Mafia games are good procrastination tools)...

As for D1/N1, I think I have explained, you guys hammered while I was in bed. :S

The rest hasn't spoken, so I am just going to wait for that first.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 7 - 6 down, 10 to go

Postby Mavketl » Mon Jan 17, 2011 4:43 pm UTC

weiyaoli wrote:The only problem I notice with that Mav, is that Lataro can still report a mafia result on Maj if he was actually FBI though I do guess that does make him being FBI (At least during D4) less likely:

e.g. Possible scenario is that Lataro used his investigation (queueing it from N3) and then got recruited D4 and he might as well then report truthfully (especially since EP actually falsely reported Maj already)
That's a good point, it is possible that that happened. If both of them were Snitches, though, I think it might've been smarter to both give a Mafia result on MaJ? The only reason not to is to hope that I'd waste a conversion on a loyal mafia, but I'm pretty sure EP knew that I would confirm things first if I could (which, in this scenario, I could). I think it would've been optimal FBI strategy to report mafia twice on MaJ if both the other Capos were FBI... but I'm not sure. Thoughts?


mieulium wrote:I am not that newish, took a hiatus due to uni semester. (Mafia games are good procrastination tools)...
Ah, sorry about that. It's because I'm a noobie myself that I didn't know... irony :wink:

mieulium wrote:As for D1/N1, I think I have explained, you guys hammered while I was in bed.
weiyaoli was not accusing you, he was saying you'd be an unattractive recruiting target so more likely to be town than the average player.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 7 - 6 down, 10 to go

Postby mieulium » Mon Jan 17, 2011 4:51 pm UTC

EBWOP: Ooops, I forgot D1/N1 was when I forgot to check within 12 hours, D2/N2 was when I went to sleep.

and
Mavketl wrote:
mieulium wrote:As for D1/N1, I think I have explained, you guys hammered while I was in bed.
weiyaoli was not accusing you, he was saying you'd be an unattractive recruiting target so more likely to be town than the average player.

I think I need weiyaoli to rephrase that sentence, I can't get my head around it. :|
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 7 - 6 down, 10 to go

Postby weiyaoli » Mon Jan 17, 2011 5:11 pm UTC

Mavketl wrote:
weiyaoli wrote:The only problem I notice with that Mav, is that Lataro can still report a mafia result on Maj if he was actually FBI though I do guess that does make him being FBI (At least during D4) less likely:

e.g. Possible scenario is that Lataro used his investigation (queueing it from N3) and then got recruited D4 and he might as well then report truthfully (especially since EP actually falsely reported Maj already)
That's a good point, it is possible that that happened. If both of them were Snitches, though, I think it might've been smarter to both give a Mafia result on MaJ? The only reason not to is to hope that I'd waste a conversion on a loyal mafia, but I'm pretty sure EP knew that I would confirm things first if I could (which, in this scenario, I could). I think it would've been optimal FBI strategy to report mafia twice on MaJ if both the other Capos were FBI... but I'm not sure. Thoughts?

Well brook did claim that Dr Ug didn't contact him at all except when he started shouting at Dr Ug to respond towards the end. Therefore, I do think it's quite likely that there would have been little planning between the two Capos (except on the part of Dr Ug maybe to stop you recoverting one and knowing the other was FBI).

Regarding optimal FBI strategy:

1) If both reported FBI. We lynch maj and then have two confirmed FBI.
2) If one reported FBI, the other mafia, we're get one confirmed FBI.
3) If both reported mafia, we would lynch one of them to confirm their results (as maj investigated a made man), lynching a snitch.

I'm not sure which of 2) or 3) would be more optimal for FBI agents. Either way we would recieve a snitch, one way confirmed and the other way dead. I guess if 3) happened though, we would closely look at maj followed by lataro. I think 3) edges out over 2).
mieulium wrote:
Mavketl wrote:
mieulium wrote:As for D1/N1, I think I have explained, you guys hammered while I was in bed.
weiyaoli was not accusing you, he was saying you'd be an unattractive recruiting target so more likely to be town than the average player.

I think I need weiyaoli to rephrase that sentence, I can't get my head around it. :|

Sorry if that was badly phrased. What I meant was, following on from Mav's logic earlier that Dr Ug didn't want to recruit people who were more likely to get lynched, that your lurking D1/N1(Or thereabouts, lataro accused you and Chandani of lurking I seem to remember N1) made you look pretty suspicious and more likely to get lynched than other players so you weren't an attractive recruit target. So I was saying that although you weren't newish like Mav had thought, you were still less likely to be FBI than other people due to your lurking.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 7 - 6 down, 10 to go

Postby Weeks » Mon Jan 17, 2011 5:43 pm UTC

Uhm, ok, so we have 5 suspects: me, Lataro, FOAT, b.i.o, and mpolo.

I would like to point out that mpolo also did the whole analysis thing like weiyaoli, and I was leaning town on him, but I'm not sure what you think about him.
b.i.o certainly looks more suspicious to me; he's been contributing, but his contributions have been a little lazy.
I don't trust Lataro. Mav said elsewhere that Lataro gives her a lot of false positives, but I believe the probability that he's been fbi'd and he posted a true result is quite likely.
Well, I don't trust FOAT much either, but it's (to me) down to gut instinct.

I think the FBI units have been working in a more individualistic sense. Perhaps that's what Brook was referring to when he said Ug didn't answer him. It is possible that Ug never actually revealed his recruits to anybody.

Finally, @weiyaoli: well, that's ok I guess; I was a little confused by Brook's post, and I really as hoping Mav knew what she was doing.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 7 - 6 down, 10 to go

Postby Weeks » Mon Jan 17, 2011 5:43 pm UTC

was*
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 7 - 6 down, 10 to go

Postby Mavketl » Mon Jan 17, 2011 5:49 pm UTC

weiyaoli wrote:Well brook did claim that Dr Ug didn't contact him at all except when he started shouting at Dr Ug to respond towards the end. Therefore, I do think it's quite likely that there would have been little planning between the two Capos (except on the part of Dr Ug maybe to stop you recoverting one and knowing the other was FBI).
That Dr Ug didn't answer someone "screaming for information" does not mean that he did not coordinate his snitches. Just means that he wouldn't tell them much.

I imagine that any snitch capo getting my 'order' to investigate (which I gave very early in N3 through some codes we had agreed upon) would just message the Agent going "I have to investigate X. What result do you want me to give?" You're right that there would not be much planning between the two Capos, but there could still be plenty of planning by the Agent.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 7 - 6 down, 10 to go

Postby ForAllOfThis » Mon Jan 17, 2011 7:48 pm UTC

@ Mav: There's no smugness about the mess up. I just get annoyed easily at little mistakes. You're right in the sense it has no real use afterwards but it's discussion nevertheless. I think that you were suspicous of Ug, that turned out to be correct and your now using that to confirm your suspicions of me. I feel like there is very little in the way of making a logical argument against those suspicions.

I don't understand where these ideas that wei is confirmed town has came from?

Analysis (I'll put what I'm seeing as scummy in bold and the reasons by the night):

N1: Probably Town, There was quite a large bandwagon on BN and only 2 snitches. Can't really tell a lot from the post.
Spoiler:
Votes BigNose for 3 reasons: Putting Mav into a list of snitches, offering himself up for a lynch, talks about people with their head down being suspicous and puts himself in the spotlight. Bandwagons on BN.


N2: Slightly Scum - For arguing that people shouldn't bandwagon even though he did it both N1 and N2.
Spoiler:
Argues that people shouldn't be bandwagoning and a NL would be better, FoS on lataro, and then Votes for Chandani for active lurking. Says that posting once a day is different with active lurking in a 24 hour night. Promises to make more of an effort N3.


N3: Slightly Scum - Would of voted if Mav hadn't said otherwise, clearly was trying very hard not to look suspicous by being very careful about voting.
Spoiler:
Responds to Dr Ug on N2 vote not being a bandwagon for following Mavs vote. Says that people have already said what he thinks about NaR. Holds off Vote because Mav asks too by quoting Weeks.


N4: Too little content to analyse.
Spoiler:
Votes Maj on Mavs request.


N5: Probable scum - looks like he's really trying to make the point that he's not scum and has a really strange vote on Lataro even though the decision to lynch EP had been made. A FoS would have done the trick here for a conversion target. It looks like he's trying to lead the lynch away from EP onto another person which if it had been a mislynch would have not been good. Knowing that Ug was now the agent, FoSing him within a group would be the perfect way to look less scummy later in the game yet draw little attention to him.
Spoiler:
Suggests caution as we're at Lylo. Working on a votes analysis. Votes analysis notes that Brook was strange suggesting we follow his vote on Lataro. Suggests Lataro for switching votes onto a bandwagon. Points out Dr Ug never answered his question and that it was strange for Bio to vote past soft lynch. Points out that Brook advocated a NL, Dr Ug voting past soft lynch and Brook voting mpolo again. FoS's: Brook, lataro, dr ug, and bio. Gives the reasons from his analysis for all four. Suggests that we should convert EP as he's the best conversion target. Says that the lynch doesn't make sense, even though Mav has made a decision.Says that no-one should vote EP. Makes a long case as to why Lataro is looking incredibly suspicous followed by a vote.


N6: Probable scum: Says the conversion must of worked but doesn't follow it with a vote. This makes no sense whatsoever, once again It makes me suspicous because it looks as if wei is being overly cautious in trying not to look scummy.
Spoiler:
Starts with saying the conversion attempt must have worked otherwise we would have lost although doesn't vote. FoSes weeks.


N7: Probable scum: Votes weeks off the bat without much consideration. If the snitches are now co-ordinated (they know each other) then this is what I would do so that other snitches could find a way to follow lead. Especially as Weeks is looking like an easy lynch to start a bandwagon on (given the hesitation to vote for Ug).
Spoiler:
Votes weeks on the basis off one post. Some deliberation on what the optimal FBI strategy would be and whether Lataro can be trusted.


Conclusion: Really the main change was on Night 5 and has been acting quite scummy since. I was going to hold off this analysis but the vote on Weeks is too suspicous to ignore, especially given that for the first half of the game he was arguing that we shouldn't bandwagon and we should be cautious when lynching. He's going against his advice completely now. I'm going to hold off a vote until I go to bed later, hopefully so wei can give a response as I think a bandwagon is more dangerous now.

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 7 - 6 down, 10 to go

Postby mpolo » Mon Jan 17, 2011 8:37 pm UTC

I got to this thing too late this evening to give it the necessary time right now. I will remedy this tomorrow.

Here are some thoughts, which are really "off the top of my head".

Snitches probably didn't know one another (at least until Dr Ug knew that the conversion was gone), as it would be insane to put that information in the hands of people who could be converted, and Dr Ug doesn't strike me as being insane.

Weeks had a weird sentence in one post yesterday, which had me rereading the post a couple of times, but I couldn't decide then what it meant, if anything. This will be a point to look back at. Weiyaoli has drawn suspicion from Weeks, so I will also try to look there.

I had not noticed anything about FAOT before Mavketl started mentioning his name, and would like to get a reread on him.

We have two confirmed mafia (Mavketl and Brook) and 5 snitches. The five snitches means that one possible result of the day is for all mafia to vote for one person and all snitches to vote for another. Which has the annoying result of ending the game with a coin-toss.

It may be Pollianna-ish to say that I'm going to try to analyse 3 people tomorrow. But I'm going to say it in the hopes that I can actually do it.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 7 - 6 down, 10 to go

Postby weiyaoli » Mon Jan 17, 2011 9:52 pm UTC

ForAllOfThis wrote:
N1: Probably Town, There was quite a large bandwagon on BN and only 2 snitches. Can't really tell a lot from the post.
Spoiler:
Votes BigNose for 3 reasons: Putting Mav into a list of snitches, offering himself up for a lynch, talks about people with their head down being suspicous and puts himself in the spotlight. Bandwagons on BN.

Except for you lead the BN lynch with less than what I said about BN that made me vote for him. So surely we should be the ones to call you out for leading a bandwagon against BN for offering himself for the lynch?

N2: Slightly Scum - For arguing that people shouldn't bandwagon even though he did it both N1 and N2.
Spoiler:
Argues that people shouldn't be bandwagoning and a NL would be better, FoS on lataro, and then Votes for Chandani for active lurking. Says that posting once a day is different with active lurking in a 24 hour night. Promises to make more of an effort N3.

Except for I clearly said that people shouldn't be just jumping onto bandwagons with the reasoning of:
"Because Mav said so" OR "Gotta have a lynch".
I clearly said that I found Chandani's post right before deadline hit N1 suspicious for offering to hammer. Same question as Dr Ug, what exactly about this reasoning do you find questionable and therefore bandwagoning?

N3: Slightly Scum - Would of voted if Mav hadn't said otherwise, clearly was trying very hard not to look suspicous by being very careful about voting.
Spoiler:
Responds to Dr Ug on N2 vote not being a bandwagon for following Mavs vote. Says that people have already said what he thinks about NaR. Holds off Vote because Mav asks too by quoting Weeks.


So it would have been better to take the vote to L-1 so someone could have hammered early against the godfather's request? :roll: I even had a vote written in, but I was ninja-ed by weeks holding off his vote because of the godfather's request. About your second point, I feel that I shouldn't parrot what everyone else (multiple people) have already said. I also did add a little bit extra that I felt nobody said so I tried to say something 'new' about NAR.

N5: Probable scum - looks like he's really trying to make the point that he's not scum and has a really strange vote on Lataro even though the decision to lynch EP had been made. A FoS would have done the trick here for a conversion target. It looks like he's trying to lead the lynch away from EP onto another person which if it had been a mislynch would have not been good. Knowing that Ug was now the agent, FoSing him within a group would be the perfect way to look less scummy later in the game yet draw little attention to him.
Spoiler:
Suggests caution as we're at Lylo. Working on a votes analysis. Votes analysis notes that Brook was strange suggesting we follow his vote on Lataro. Suggests Lataro for switching votes onto a bandwagon. Points out Dr Ug never answered his question and that it was strange for Bio to vote past soft lynch. Points out that Brook advocated a NL, Dr Ug voting past soft lynch and Brook voting mpolo again. FoS's: Brook, lataro, dr ug, and bio. Gives the reasons from his analysis for all four. Suggests that we should convert EP as he's the best conversion target. Says that the lynch doesn't make sense, even though Mav has made a decision.Says that no-one should vote EP. Makes a long case as to why Lataro is looking incredibly suspicous followed by a vote.

Um... we don't have to follow every single thing Mav suggests you know. I thought lynching EP based on all the wine he'd spilt was a bad idea as I didn't think he was actually the agent, and so I didn't go along with lynching EP. If we did that, then we wouldn't have any useful voting records, as we aren't voting as we believe.

What exactly do you find scummy about me asking Dr Ug to actually answer my question? I felt he was unfairly making accusations, and so asked him to back it up, which he never did.
N6: Probable scum: Says the conversion must of worked but doesn't follow it with a vote. This makes no sense whatsoever, once again It makes me suspicous because it looks as if wei is being overly cautious in trying not to look scummy.
Spoiler:
Starts with saying the conversion attempt must have worked otherwise we would have lost although doesn't vote. FoSes weeks.

I gave my reasons for not voting N6; I was on my phone at the time, and it's pretty difficult to type much and fustratingly slow. I knew I was going to be able to access a computer soon though so was waiting until I could get onto a computer before voting. Somebody hammered before I could do so.

N7: Probable scum: Votes weeks off the bat without much consideration. If the snitches are now co-ordinated (they know each other) then this is what I would do so that other snitches could find a way to follow lead. Especially as Weeks is looking like an easy lynch to start a bandwagon on (given the hesitation to vote for Ug).
Spoiler:
Votes weeks on the basis off one post. Some deliberation on what the optimal FBI strategy would be and whether Lataro can be trusted.


It wasn't just off that one post, though obviously that was the main reason I gave. So you're saying that Week's hesistation in voting for Dr Ug isn't scummy? Also, her short one or two worded replies during N5 were clearly examples of active lurking.

This isn't an OMGUS, but really your reasoning that we should have just followed Mav on every single decision she made full stop and not try to think of better alternatives is really pinging me.

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 7 - 6 down, 10 to go

Postby weiyaoli » Mon Jan 17, 2011 10:11 pm UTC

EBWOP:

Also, regarding asking other people to stop voting for EP; we had already reached the soft lynch requirement by then. Therefore, I didn't think it was wise to put EP at L-1 where he could self hammer and not give Mav the chance to reconvert or protect, giving us an auto mafia loss.

About fos-ing Dr Ug in a group, by then there would have been 6 FBI. I clearly thought all 4 were FBI, except nobody commented to say whether they agreed or disagreed and so I then decided to go and analyse one of them (to gather more evidence than just voting records) at the end of which I thought I had more than enough evidence against lataro for a lataro lynch. I was also hoping Dr Ug would have actually responded to my questions that I could answer, but nothing from that front. That's hardly hiding the Agent in a group fos; by then there were so many FBI that clearly what I meant was that they were who I thought most likely to be FBI.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 7 - 6 down, 10 to go

Postby Mavketl » Mon Jan 17, 2011 10:16 pm UTC

ForAllOfThis wrote:I don't understand where these ideas that wei is confirmed town has came from?
Mostly because every time I said something stupid (to not tell the Agent what was actually going on / who I suspected / etc), weiyaoli challenged it, while a whole lot of other people were all "oh okay let's do that Mav".

weiyaoli: you have every right to defend yourself, of course, but keep in mind that it'd be hugely beneficial to the FBI to make this day all about weiyaoli's scumminess. Don't feed the trolls too much. :wink:
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 7 - 6 down, 10 to go

Postby ForAllOfThis » Mon Jan 17, 2011 11:03 pm UTC

weiyaoli wrote:Except for you lead the BN lynch with less than what I said about BN that made me vote for him. So surely we should be the ones to call you out for leading a bandwagon against BN for offering himself for the lynch?


Actually I chose not to bandwagon on b.i.o for lurking and BN seemed the most scummy. I gave reasons for my voting and they must of been sound as you followed with a vote and nearly the same reasons. Also this is evidence that I haven't 'just been following exactly what Mav says' and been making up my own mind on who I think is scummy and who isn't.


weiyaoli wrote:Except for I clearly said that people shouldn't be just jumping onto bandwagons with the reasoning of:
"Because Mav said so" OR "Gotta have a lynch".
I clearly said that I found Chandani's post right before deadline hit N1 suspicious for offering to hammer. Same question as Dr Ug, what exactly about this reasoning do you find questionable and therefore bandwagoning?


Bandwagoning is voting for something that has already got momentum. That's what you did, you didn't question any of the other players. You made an argument that was inconsistent with your actions those two nights..

weiyaoli wrote:So it would have been better to take the vote to L-1 so someone could have hammered early against the godfather's request? :roll: I even had a vote written in, but I was ninja-ed by weeks holding off his vote because of the godfather's request. About your second point, I feel that I shouldn't parrot what everyone else (multiple people) have already said. I also did add a little bit extra that I felt nobody said so I tried to say something 'new' about NAR.


I'm not saying you should have taken the vote to L-1, what I'm saying was that there was no need to make such a big deal about it. As I pointed out it looks like your trying really hard not to look scummy at this point.

weiyaoli wrote:Um... we don't have to follow every single thing Mav suggests you know. I thought lynching EP based on all the wine he'd spilt was a bad idea as I didn't think he was actually the agent, and so I didn't go along with lynching EP. If we did that, then we wouldn't have any useful voting records, as we aren't voting as we believe.

What exactly do you find scummy about me asking Dr Ug to actually answer my question? I felt he was unfairly making accusations, and so asked him to back it up, which he never did.


There was absolutely no benefit for mafia on putting a vote on Lataro though or trying to steer a lynch onto Lataro. Mav had already said that she wasn't going to convert EP by this point and was happy for a lynch. Trying to lead a lynch on Lataro could have caused a NL which would have been devastating for us. If Lataro is town then it would have caused us to insta-lose. I'll repeat it again, there was no benefit for us to vote lataro and thats why that vote is scummy.

weiyaoli wrote:I gave my reasons for not voting N6; I was on my phone at the time, and it's pretty difficult to type much and fustratingly slow. I knew I was going to be able to access a computer soon though so was waiting until I could get onto a computer before voting. Somebody hammered before I could do so.


You had already made a post though so the frustrating and long part was over. It would have taken you 5 more seconds to type "Vote: Dr. Ug" on a phone. If you were sure that brook had successfully converted there should have been no hesitation. Worse, your reason for voting weeks is for hesitating to vote Dr. Ug, which is exactly what you did in a more subtle way.

weiyaoli wrote:It wasn't just off that one post, though obviously that was the main reason I gave. So you're saying that Week's hesistation in voting for Dr Ug isn't scummy? Also, her short one or two worded replies during N5 were clearly examples of active lurking.


I'm not defending weeks, I'm not even saying that your vote is misplaced. What I am saying is it was too quick, without enough consideration and is exactly what I would expect one of the mafia sntiches to do on the first night after the agent has been lynched.

weiyaoli wrote:This isn't an OMGUS, but really your reasoning that we should have just followed Mav on every single decision she made full stop and not try to think of better alternatives is really pinging me.


I didn't follow Mav's instructions to the T. Only on night 5 did I make a point that we should follow Mav, as she knew more about the situation than we did. If that's the only reason for voting me yet again it's not a good enough reason. Switching votes after I point it out as being really scummy is once again another play to try to look less suspicous, especially as your main argument is "You've followed Mav, the only confirmed town, thats suspicous". It's a rubbish argument because it's not even true, until we had a confirmed FBI Mav was following a lot of my votes (BN, NaR). At night 5 Mav knew more about the situation so trying to lynch someone else just doesn't make sense until the wine is cleared up.

I've made my reasons for this vote clear enough, and changing your vote has just confirmed to me what I had thought previously.

Vote: weiyaoli


Ninjaed -

On Night 5 there were no better alternatives. Mav was in the know at this point and we wern't. We may have reached soft lynch but if there were agents voting him to be lynched then they could have unvoted causing a NL. They could have unvoted and voted Lataro as the perfect cover, and you provided that cover.

We needed an agent lynch and as there was only 1 agent then FoSing 4 people isn't helpful. It's the perfect way to make yourself look less suspicious than you actually are late game. You did an analysis saying I think these are FBI, not that useful, if you had said out of these 4 I think the most likely to be the agent is because of x and y and z and the others are likely snitches because of x y and z would have been.

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 7 - 6 down, 10 to go

Postby MasterOfAll » Tue Jan 18, 2011 4:44 am UTC

Vote Count

ForAllOfThis - 2 (Mavketl, weiyaoli)
weiyaoli - 1 (ForAllOfThis)

6 Votes needed to kill immediately, or 5 votes at deadline

Deadline is 23 hours, 9 minutes from now.

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 7 - 6 down, 10 to go

Postby mpolo » Tue Jan 18, 2011 11:25 am UTC

Because of time constraints, I'm starting on page 5. I am going to try to read FAOT, Weeks, and weiyaoli.

FAOT:
Spoiler:
Argument with MaJ (loyal Capo) - MaJ had said that he didn't think the FBI would recruit capos (this was false), and that he was inches from voting EP (who at some point became a snitch). FAOT considered this an inconsistency.

Voted NaR for lurkiness.

Follows MaJ vote from Mavketl, says that he considered MaJ to be suspicious. We must trust Mav.

Lynching EP is a bad idea. Presents statistics suggesting conversion is the right move (he missed a small point about timings, also missed by EP and Mav)

Hopes Mav has more info. He really wants to try converting EP.

Conversion of EP is subject to simultaneous re-conversion.

Points of Brook's bad strategy.

I'm not smug, just annoyed by little mistakes. Argument against him is not very logical. Doesn't understand why weiyaoli is likely town. Analysis of weiyaoli, leading to vote.

Gave reasons for lynch of Bignose, and weiyaoli follwed for the same reasons. Therefore, he's not just "following exactly what Mav says". Accuses weiyaoli of bandwagoning. Thought that the Lataro vote after Mav had decided to lynch was just splitting votes, making no-lynch likely. Doesn't accept "phone excuse" for not voting Dr Ug. Weiyaoli's vote for Weeks was too quick. Says that he didn't always follow Mav, and besides, following Mav is following the only confirmed townie. Wanted a hard hammer on N5 to prevent Snitch shenanigans.


Weeks:
Spoiler:
Sees NaR's defense as weak, but doesn't vote because of the request of Mav.

Says to trust cycoden because Mav does.

Points out that spreading out votes (between myself and NaR) just makes it more likely to get a no-lynch result.

Votes NaR.

Moves toward the Capos. All are pinging. Cycoden is pinging. Dr Ug and FAOT are under the radar.

Godfather shouldn't make everything public.

Agrees that Mav is suspicious, but finds FAOT's arguments weak; strong accusation is generally difficult, however. Dr Ug has been murkying his arguments with fluff, he also voted quickly on NaR. Thinks that the Capos and Brook are more scummy than both of these (1 of three Capos and Brook were in fact scum. Dr Ug was too.)

Banter with EP. Lynching him is a no-brainer.

Asks how Mav can be sure that conversion of Brook worked.

There are 5 suspects. Sees b.i.o and Lataro as probable snitches


weiyaoli:
Spoiler:
Argument with Dr Ug about reasoning for his Chandani vote. Worried about trusting the cop on cycoden.

Assume LyLO and be careful with voting. Doing vote analysis. Does vote analysis. Suspicion of Brook (scum at that time), Lataro (unknown -- though on D4 he gave a correct cop result), Dr Ug (scum), b.i.o (unknown)

Worried about the EP lynch because of probable LYLO.

EP lynch makes no sense. Please hold off.

Lataro has been jumping very fast. Doesn't think EP is the agent (correct). Decides that Lataro must be FBI, though he did not identify a moment of change in behavior. Votes Lataro.

Mav could convert EP safely by simultaneously using her protect.

Points out that the conversion of Brook must have been successful, as otherwise we would have lost.

Votes Weeks.

Thinks Lataro was likely town as of day 4. Mieullium lurked on N1.

Analysis of optimal FBI strategy as regards the Capos.

Mieullium wouldn't be a good recruit target on N1.

Comments on FAOT's analysis of him. Doesn't like FAOT's attitude of blind following of Mav and refusal to think independently. Votes FAOT.

Explains his behavior as regards the EP list (didn't want to move to L-1). Stands by his list of probable scum -- no one tried to agree or disagree with it. He wasn't trying to protect the agent by "hiding his suspicion" in a big group. Didn't vote N6 because of use of telephone.


Conclusion:
FAOT really does look scummy. The style of defence and the relative weakness of the attack on weiyaoli. There is also the way he is quick to point out errors when it is too late to fix them. That's a kind of standard scum-tell.
weiyaoli. The re-read made it clear to me why Mav is tending to trust him. His analysis tends to be spot-on, and he has caught some errors as well.
Weeks. The jury is really out here. I read her generally in a townie light. There was one kind of "off" post, which I somehow overlooked in my summary. (I've got to post now, though.)

I would like to see an analysis of b.i.o -- I had a couple of pings while I was skimming the thread there, but I promised these three re-reads, not a complete re-read. Maybe I can still come back to him to see which of the two of them (him or FAOT) looks worse.

Since there's time, I'll hold off to see if I can manage it.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 7 - 6 down, 10 to go

Postby Brooklynxman » Tue Jan 18, 2011 2:16 pm UTC

I am still trying to catch up with the flurry of activity here. I will post as soon as I am reasonably close to caught up.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 7 - 6 down, 10 to go

Postby Lataro » Tue Jan 18, 2011 4:22 pm UTC

Vote: FAOT

As people have been saying, I'm not really giving a whole lot here. Nothing to say except that at this point, there isn't much to do besides follow the GF on votes, since Chipmunk and BXM are the only two that can be trusted right now. Anything anyone else tries to add to suggesting targets/ect is just wine, and I've been pretty much ignoring it as such.
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Garak: "Are you sure that's the moral?"
Julian: "Of course. What else could it be?"
Garak: "Never tell the same lie twice."

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 7 - 6 down, 10 to go

Postby Mavketl » Tue Jan 18, 2011 4:27 pm UTC

Lataro wrote:Vote: FAOT

As people have been saying, I'm not really giving a whole lot here. Nothing to say except that at this point, there isn't much to do besides follow the GF on votes, since Chipmunk and BXM are the only two that can be trusted right now. Anything anyone else tries to add to suggesting targets/ect is just wine, and I've been pretty much ignoring it as such.
I'm not psychic, and I'm pretty sure Brook isn't either. So the way we are going to find all FBI Snitches is by analysing what people say - which is kind of hard if they are not saying anything.

I agree that everyone should be cautious with their votes, because we have a whole lot of FBI and we don't want them to rush a lynch on someone. But I do want to hear suggestions and discussion. Townies being quiet and waiting for scum to reveal themselves is a bad strategy in right about every mafia game, and I don't see how this one is any different.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 7 - 6 down, 10 to go

Postby Lataro » Tue Jan 18, 2011 4:29 pm UTC

Chipmunk, don't you know by now? I HATE creating wine.
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