[T] MoA Replay - Game Over - Mafia wins - FBI loses

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Lataro
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby Lataro » Fri Jan 14, 2011 2:55 am UTC

I'm all queued up.

As to the vote, I'd have to say NAR made a solid case himself with his last post.

Vote: NAR
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby Not A Raptor » Fri Jan 14, 2011 4:30 am UTC

If I draw the recruit, I no longer win with you. Thus, my action in drawing the recruit costs me a win.

Further, I also do this because there's only one person that I can completely trust other than myself: Mav. The rest of you are suspect. As for the wine, most people don't think through too many steps of it and tend to prefer to stay on the first step. So, occupying the second benefits me.

In short, I'm metaing the metagame.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby michaelandjimi » Fri Jan 14, 2011 7:33 am UTC

Not A Raptor wrote:If I draw the recruit, I no longer win with you. Thus, my action in drawing the recruit costs me a win.
I've already addressed this. As town, we must promote talking lots and lots, even if it means we don't win individually. We want everyone to talk lots, so that the FBI don't know who to pick.

Also, your actions aren't fitting with what you're meant to be doing with your alignment. The Mo(A)/(d) said that we want to work in our current alignment's interests. You, by not talking much, are acting in the interests of the FBI, and also the interests of yourself as potential FBI agent. As a proper townie you should be acting in the town's interests, which means that you talk.

To summarise? We talk lots because it promotes an environment in which people should talk lots, furthering the town's interests. Also, if you don't draw a recruit, it's possible one of the Capos would. Losing us pro-town powers.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby Not A Raptor » Fri Jan 14, 2011 8:17 am UTC

Then I have fucked up.
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Like Wizardry.

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby mpolo » Fri Jan 14, 2011 9:31 am UTC

No, Brook, voting me at the moment is not good. (I.e. I am loyal.) I can't prove anything, of course.

We need to hit a real snitch or even better, the agent. There's a lot of wine surrounding the Capos at the moment, but Mav has asked us to hold off on them. Apparently Mav trusted E_P yesterday, which gives me a certain amount of confidence in him.

If E_P was loyal last night, then Cycoden was also loyal last night. If E_P was disloyal last night, then Cycoden is very likely the Agent. Tonight we can't be certain whether either of them was recruited yesterday, so lynching E_P doesn't immediately clear up the wine. (After tonight, he is presumably an almost certain recruit, so as to permanently close this avenue of information-gathering.) Since he's a Capo, he's off-limits at the moment, anyway.

NaR's defence of "active lurking" is misplaced, I believe. I've said before that we need to get as many of us to talk as possible. However, I think that the reasoning he presented for that (in my opinion erroneous) idea was relatively sound -- we don't put out info that could be useful to the FBI. It's just that if we don't do that, we're essentially lynching blind.

And that's about all I've got. Other lines of information-gathering have been primarily looking at lurkers. And I would really rather have more basis for a lynch than just lurkiness (active or otherwise).
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby mieulium » Fri Jan 14, 2011 9:36 am UTC

Well, before you guys lynch the person before I actually vote,

Vote: NaR
because the reason "I keep quiet so I wont get recruited" actually doesnt fit in with your normal gameplay.

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby cycoden » Fri Jan 14, 2011 12:31 pm UTC

Erk. Sorry for missing the last 24 hours.

mpolo wrote:If E_P was loyal last night, then Cycoden was also loyal last night. If E_P was disloyal last night, then Cycoden is very likely the Agent. Tonight we can't be certain whether either of them was recruited yesterday, so lynching E_P doesn't immediately clear up the wine. (After tonight, he is presumably an almost certain recruit, so as to permanently close this avenue of information-gathering.) Since he's a Capo, he's off-limits at the moment, anyway.
Huh? Didn't Mav identify MaJ as the Capo who investigated me?

This, plus BXMs rather valid point on your prevarication leads me to:

Vote: mpolo

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby mpolo » Fri Jan 14, 2011 1:19 pm UTC

It wasn't prevarication, but rather an honest mistake. You are correct. It was MaJ that did the first investigation. The logic is correct, I believe -- just substitute the correct name.

Look. I really don't want to lose by having us do a third mislynch in a row. But I don't know what else I can say, either. If I am lynched, then of the 13 left tomorrow night, there are 5 agent/snitches. Which means two bad lynches and game over (assuming we don't have an effective conversion or block).
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 2 - 1 down, 15 to go

Postby ForAllOfThis » Fri Jan 14, 2011 1:34 pm UTC

michaelandjimi wrote:
ForAllOfThis wrote:MaJ is acting the most scummy but is a capo. Being a capo makes him more likely to be a snitch than an agent and we've been told not to vote for capo's but I definitely think we should keep an eye on him.
Hey, wanna actually explain why you think I'm scummy, rather than just saying I am? I don't want to knee-jerk OMGUS, and I'm going to be back much later in the day, towards the end. But I'd much prefer complete transparency on everyone's parts.


Happy too.

When I made my last post you were talking about how you think it was quite unlikely that FBI would recruit capos then said you were inches away from voting EP, a fellow capo. It's only a minor inconsistency but a capo snitch would obviously be like "It's quite unlikely the capos have been recruited", and then to turn on another capo was just suspicous.

There are only 3 capos and I think it's likely at least one has been recruited, and you've been acting the most suspicous out of the 3 capos which to me makes it likely that you're a snitch.

I'm voting NaR for the same reasons that I voted NaR yesterday, unsubstantial posts and not a great defence when I pulled him up for it. I should be on more throughout the day (UK Time) so will try to post more to others posts but will be out tonight and as a result will be missing the lynch deadline.

Vote: NaR

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby Mavketl » Fri Jan 14, 2011 1:38 pm UTC

Vote: NaR

I would rather not believe that he is a townie who genuinely thinks that "if you're not the FBI agent, LURK!" is a good strategy. He has to be smarter than that.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby Mavketl » Fri Jan 14, 2011 2:26 pm UTC

EBWOP: There was some talk here about possible hammer scenarios and we might've gotten into this game a bit. I don't think there's any actual game content, but just to be on the safe side I figured I should post it here. We're really sorry. *puppy eyes at mod*
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby roband » Fri Jan 14, 2011 2:28 pm UTC

Yeah sorry, I'm a mong

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby Weeks » Fri Jan 14, 2011 3:25 pm UTC

We're at L-3.

NaR's "defense" is full of holes, and he hasn't contributed enough to consider mpolo instead, who actually is active and keeps furthering discussion (which to me makes it harder to fake as FBI...at least theoretically.)

Mav asked not to L-2, so I won't vote yet.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby MasterOfAll » Fri Jan 14, 2011 4:13 pm UTC

Anyone want to do the vote count today?

I am heading out the door right now and won't be back until right around the deadline.

Have fun, and see y'all later.

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby mpolo » Fri Jan 14, 2011 4:17 pm UTC

I'm not sure what to think on NaR. The lurker strategy is extremely damaging here, even though he gives his reason for it.

I'm going to hold off, as I believe I can be online again tonight. I'd rather not make NaR into low-hanging fruit if he's able to convince us of his loyalty.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby weiyaoli » Fri Jan 14, 2011 4:35 pm UTC

@Dr Ug, I don't believe I voted for Chandani because Mav said so at all; I voted for Chandani because of his questionable post right at the end of N1 asking if he should hammer BN. That's hardly bandwagoning onto Chandani because Mav voted for him. If you believed that wasn't a good reason, why didn't you expand upon that last night?

Also everybody else has already said pretty much what I thought about NAR except for the fact that I would question his use of further WIFOM regarding levels of thinking is his second post.

Weeks wrote:We're at L-3.

NaR's "defense" is full of holes, and he hasn't contributed enough to consider mpolo instead, who actually is active and keeps furthering discussion (which to me makes it harder to fake as FBI...at least theoretically.)

Mav asked not to L-2, so I won't vote yet.


Where did Mav ask this? (Sorry if it was really obvious) I'll hold off a vote in any case.

Also, why are we trusting maj's cop on cycoden? As far as I recall, everyone just went yep confirmed mafia and left him alone for the most part.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby Weeks » Fri Jan 14, 2011 4:45 pm UTC

Mavketl wrote:EBWOP: Also, keep in mind that we have 4 FBI now. Don't bring this to L-1 (or 2) way before the deadline: I want to be sure that there is time for investigations to be sent in and preferably for everyone to have opinions in here.


Re: Cycoden...ask Mav, she trusts him. I'm not terribly sure, myself, but it's good strategy to convert a previously confirmed mafia to FBI.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby roband » Fri Jan 14, 2011 5:31 pm UTC

Vote Count

NaR - 5 (EP, Lataro, mieulium, ForAllOfThis, Mavketl)
mpolo - 2 (BXM, cycoden)

Deadline in: 7 hours 40 minutes from this post

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby Brooklynxman » Fri Jan 14, 2011 6:10 pm UTC

I am going to propose something radical here. We should probably nolynch.

Why you ask? Thats totally scummy we should lynch Brooklynxman you say? Hold on a second. Let me explain.

We are currently at 14 players. Mav has said chipmunk wants a snitch lynch today, or any fbi. Matmatically, nl is the same as hitting a snitch, both of which are better then hitting mafia.
at 14 with 4 fbi, lynch a snitch and we go to 13 with 4 fbi (9m,4f)the next day (after fbi recruits again)
at 14 with 4 fbi, nl and we got to 14 with 5 fbi (10m,5f) the next day. Both take 5 more people wittled down to make it game over.
at 14 with 4 fbi, we mislynch we go to 13 with 5 fbi (8m,5f), much closer to an fbi win.

I am not going to vote it yet not because I don't think it is a good idea, but because I know precipitously voting a nl around here is considered crazy. Seriously though, discuss.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby Elvish Pillager » Fri Jan 14, 2011 6:38 pm UTC

hai BXM

5 + 10 ≠ 14

tyvm kthxbai
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby mpolo » Fri Jan 14, 2011 7:34 pm UTC

I see what Brook is trying to drive at, but there is a mathematical error (as pointed out by E_P):

FBI Agent Lynch => SUPER! We end up with 13, 3 of whom are FBI, and the recruit is gone. (3 FBI - 10 mafia)
Snitch Lynch => O.K. We end up with 13, 4 of whom are FBI, with recruit in tact. (4 FBI - 9 mafia)
No Lynch => we stay at 14, now 5 are FBI, recruit is intact, and we gain no information at all. (5 FBI - 9 mafia, i.e. worse than above)
Mafia Lynch => Ick. We end up with 13, 5 of whom are FBI (5 FBI - 8 mafia, likely one night left, possibly two unless we hit after this)

So I don't think the No Lynch gives us a lot of advantages.

And I am forced to vote now or forever hold my peace. We're at lynch - 3. Two people are voting for me and at least one would presumably be willing to move to NaR if it gets down to the wire. That means that a soft lynch is going to be possible with the people who are around. I guess I am going to not place the vote in case the flurry that hits after I get offline pushes this another direction.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby b.i.o » Fri Jan 14, 2011 9:36 pm UTC

So I noticed this when I was reading through yesterday and I'm *really* surprised no-one else has brought it up yet, but Brook has been advocating no lynch with the same faulty reasoning since Day 1.

On D1, he said this:
An nl is the same thing as lynching a snitch. Instead of mafia losing one while fbi remains the same, fbi gain one while mafia remain the same. In the end we move the same distance towards lylo either way. Except with an nl instead of lynching a known snitch, we can convert the snitch and find the agent. So nl is actually potentially better.

Which is very wrong.
No lynch: mafia lose 1, FBI gain 1 (NOT mafia stay stay constant, FBI gains one)
Lynch snitch: mafia lose 1, FBI stay constant
Lynch mafia: mafia lose 2, FBI gain 1

Since he's made the same mistake multiple times, he's either trying to fool us all (I doubt it), or he's just got it wrong in his head (I think this is probably the case). So I'm not going to condemn him for his mistake. I *do* think the timing of his mistake is rather suspicious though. His vote is on mpolo (and has been since N2). So I'm not sure why now (that it looks almost certain that NaR's going to get lynched) he's again advocating NL instead of trying to get mpolo lynched if he actually thinks mpolo is a valid lynch.

My guess: Brook is FBI, and (at least) one of NaR or mpolo is FBI.

Also, have the capos used their investigations yet? If not, I think they really should. All three of them look suspicious to me, and I think it's extremely likely that at least one of them has been turned. If we keep holding off on lynching them we're going to be hurting ourselves, I think. My vote tomorrow will probably be on Lataro unless something especially interesting happens between now and then. He's been acting way too sane this game for my liking.

Other suspicions: roband and Dr Ug.

I think we should lynch one of mpolo or NaR today, and I think Brook is a prime candidate for re-conversion if we get to the point where we need to pick one. I'm going to go with mpolo for now just so this isn't a completely 1-sided thing.

vote: mpolo

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby Lataro » Fri Jan 14, 2011 10:05 pm UTC

Huh, according to that post, you only suspect more than half the people left alive in this game? How specific.

My investigate is in per Chipmunk's request, I'll pry be giving the results tomorrow to her. After that, I really don't care if I die, and in fact have suggested that I should be killed for the purpose of verifying my results. I'm pretty sure we are screwed due to the pacing of this game, so dying isn't really a pain.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby Weeks » Fri Jan 14, 2011 10:19 pm UTC

b.i.o, I would just like to point out that roband is not playing, so please don't accuse him of scumminess.

And speaking of faulty reasoning. You vote mpolo so the votals are balanced? That is just silly.

I'm going to vote NaR once we have the green light on voting.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby Brooklynxman » Fri Jan 14, 2011 11:17 pm UTC

I aknowledge my mathmatical error, somewhere in there I forgot that fbi can only grow if mafia shrinks.

bio: I advocated nl instead of lynch mpolo because mav sounded like she needed us to be absolutely sure, and without a cop or something of the like, we cannot be absolutely sure.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby Elvish Pillager » Fri Jan 14, 2011 11:39 pm UTC

It's not "way before the deadline" anymore. I'm pretty sure we're cool to go to L-2.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby Elvish Pillager » Fri Jan 14, 2011 11:50 pm UTC

Hmm. Let it be known that I think b.i.o recommending a candidate for reconversion is hella scummy.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby roband » Sat Jan 15, 2011 12:01 am UTC

Vote Count

NaR - 5 (EP, Lataro, mieulium, ForAllOfThis, Mavketl)
mpolo - 3 (BXM, cycoden, bio)

Deadline in: 1 hour 11 minutes from this post

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby Weeks » Sat Jan 15, 2011 12:08 am UTC

Vote: NaR
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby roband » Sat Jan 15, 2011 12:12 am UTC

Oh and just to be extra clear (as MoA would be if he were here):

8 Votes needed to kill immediately. 6 Votes needed to kill at deadline.

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby Dr Ug » Sat Jan 15, 2011 12:13 am UTC

Not much time
Vote NaR
Where did my old signature go? :(

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby roband » Sat Jan 15, 2011 12:15 am UTC

Vote Count

NaR - 7 (EP, Lataro, mieulium, ForAllOfThis, Mavketl, Weeks, Dr Ug)
mpolo - 3 (BXM, cycoden, bio)

Deadline in: 57 minutes from this post

8 Votes needed to kill immediately. 6 Votes needed to kill at deadline.

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby roband » Sat Jan 15, 2011 12:45 am UTC

27 minutes til deadline

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 4 - 3 down, 13 to go

Postby MasterOfAll » Sat Jan 15, 2011 1:12 am UTC

Thank you roband for counting votes today!

Not A Raptor has been killed. He was Loyal Mafia.


It is now Night 4.


There are 13 players left.

7 Votes needed to kill immediately, or 5 Votes at deadline.

Deadline is 24 hours from this post.

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby b.i.o » Sat Jan 15, 2011 1:23 am UTC

Weeks wrote:b.i.o, I would just like to point out that roband is not playing, so please don't accuse him of scumminess.

Oh. I saw him here (and he did make one post that wasn't a vote-counting post) and in the meta thread talking about this game and assumed he was just lurking up a storm.

And speaking of faulty reasoning. You vote mpolo so the votals are balanced? That is just silly.

I thought either was a fine lynch target, and was hoping there'd be a bit more discussion before the deadline. What's silly is the high minimum vote counts in a ridiculously fast game that prevent us from having any real choice in how things turn out once a bandwagon's started. I was trying to give us a choice of two rather than forcing us into confirming a decision that's already been made.

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 4 - 3 down, 13 to go

Postby Lataro » Sat Jan 15, 2011 1:27 am UTC

Arg! At this rate by sheer chance we'll hit one sooner than later.

Who wants to pick the next person we confirm via lynch?
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 3 - 2 down, 14 to go

Postby Elvish Pillager » Sat Jan 15, 2011 1:29 am UTC

b.i.o wrote:
And speaking of faulty reasoning. You vote mpolo so the votals are balanced? That is just silly.

I thought either was a fine lynch target, and was hoping there'd be a bit more discussion before the deadline. What's silly is the high minimum vote counts in a ridiculously fast game that prevent us from having any real choice in how things turn out once a bandwagon's started. I was trying to give us a choice of two rather than forcing us into confirming a decision that's already been made.

Well, that's a good idea if and only if "us" are loyal mafia. Making sure there's a choice for the FBI? Not so great an idea.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 4 - 3 down, 13 to go

Postby MasterOfAll » Sat Jan 15, 2011 1:30 am UTC

Oh, for the record, in this game I do not care if y'all talk after the hammer (assuming that there ever is a hammer). If you are the player who just got killed, though, please be kind to your fellow players and do not say anything game breaking.

b.i.o wrote:What's silly is the high minimum vote counts in a ridiculously fast game that prevent us from having any real choice in how things turn out once a bandwagon's started.
Well, if so many players hadn't signed up for this Turbo, or if y'all had selected a *bloodier* game, then we wouldn't have to have such short nights. As for the high minimum votes at deadline, I stand fully behind the decision to set them so high.

FYI - I will probably extend nights to 36 hours each sometime in the near future.

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 4 - 3 down, 13 to go

Postby Mavketl » Sat Jan 15, 2011 2:43 am UTC

Hey everyone, I (unsurprisingly) lied to y'all about the amount of investigations we had left and their targets. Right now, I've got a decent idea of a couple of snitches (I was looking for snitches to convert, after all).

We could lynch a Capo to verify an investigation result and I could be sure, but that would mean waiting another cycle and we're cutting it reallllly close by then. Options:
1) Lynch a Capo, maybe get a confirmed FBI.
2) Try to lynch the agent. I convert someone based on an educated guess/probabilities/gut feeling.

For finding the FBI agent, I have no hard data. After re-reading everything a thousand times, I am most suspicious of Dr Ug and ForAllOfThis. If we're not doing lynching-to-verify-Capo, I think we should lynch one of them. This is not GodfatherMav, this is regular townie Mav speaking. So feel free to disagree, I suppose.


I think these were all things and options that I can share with y'all. I'm having trouble with this role because unlike a regular game of mafia where you're trying to figure things out with the rest of the townies, town is (theoretically) best served by me plotting on my own and not telling anyone what I'm doing. I hate not being able to bounce ideas off others and I feel like I'm developing tunnel vision. Also, a lot of you are just as townie as I am and this is our decision to make, not mine.

What should we do?
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 4 - 3 down, 13 to go

Postby Weeks » Sat Jan 15, 2011 2:51 am UTC

I think it is about time to do something about the Capos.

All of them have pinged me in one way or the other. Lataro pushing lynches with near zero reasoning. MaJ proposing weird strategies, half thought arguments. EP hasn't been as active or cutting-edge townie as I'd expect, but I'm not sure what strategy ze's using right now (if ze's town, anyway).

Cycoden pushing for me and also being (supposedly) confirmed town just plain reads to me as FBI. I don't recall much about Ug or FOAT, I will reread.
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