[m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Game Ov-arrrr!

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Robot_Raptor
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Re: The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby Robot_Raptor » Wed Jun 08, 2011 8:06 pm UTC

webby wrote:Robot_Raptor - Welcome, you're new here? You haven't posted apart from to answer the questions, so here's a more general one - what sort of things for you would distinguish someone being town from being scum and what weight would you put on them? For example, some things might be posting frequency, aggressiveness, defensiveness, faulty logic?


Yup. i'm new here, never played mafia before on these fora.

I'm not sure what posting frequency has to do with probability of scummyness, i'm personally quiet unless I have something of import to say.

Aggression against others without a good rationale is suspicious.

Defense of self is not suspicious.

Defense of others without rationale is suspicious.

Aggression against self is silly, but might be tactically useful, though i draw a blank as to how.

Faulty logic is suspicious, the more so the more cleverly it's hidden.

roband wrote:R_R - do you mind if I ask your gender? I like to address people using the correct pronouns if possible.


Male, but i'm not particularly picky about pronouns.

jayhsu wrote:Also, note that Robot_Raptor did the same.


To clarify, I meant that both active and passive lurkers ought be lynched in most games, but given the small number of mislynches we are afforded, i don't think that's the case here. (This is a change in opinion after Jayhsu's analysis)

Ibarra wrote:Also I don't think Raptor has commented on anything other than my questions? With a 5 RL-day Day, he/she (I'm betting on he though) should start posting.


I'm a natural lurker, unless the discussion comes up with something i feel the need to comment on, one post a day is probably the most you can expect from me.

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Re: The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby cjdrum » Wed Jun 08, 2011 9:36 pm UTC

Can a Doctor self-protect?

No.

jayhsu wrote:Question: Will roles be revealed on death or on the next day?

Arrr! The sailors who walk the plank be givin' up their role immediately!
(roles will be revealed on death)
:shock:

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Re: The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby Robot_Raptor » Wed Jun 08, 2011 9:54 pm UTC

Spoiler:
cjdrum wrote:
Can a Doctor self-protect?

No.

jayhsu wrote:Question: Will roles be revealed on death or on the next day?

Arrr! The sailors who walk the plank be givin' up their role immediately!
(roles will be revealed on death)


Thank you kindly, this shall be useful in my analysis.

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Re: The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby webby » Thu Jun 09, 2011 12:25 am UTC

roband wrote:webby, considering you pulled me and GoP up for agreeing with jay belatedly, I was surprised to see you say the below,
webby wrote:
In regards to the when scum win - 2-2 is a forced no-lynch as well, which with the nightkill is a definite loss


as its basically a copy of what I've said previously.


Where did you say that? There were only three posts between jayshu's question and my answer and none of them are yours.

Robot_Raptor, it helps town if people are posting a lot, because our posts are all we have to go by as to working out who's town and scum (well unless there's a cop, but the cop is often only a minor help). The more posts and analysis there are, the more chance we have of catching scum slipping up. Basically, the more you post, the more information we have about you, which is good for you if you're town, but bad for you if you're scum. So often scum will avoid posting, or make posts that aren't really saying anything useful (called active lurking). In summary, you should try to post more than once a game day, and aim for approximately once every real-life day.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby cjdrum » Thu Jun 09, 2011 7:49 am UTC

None of ye be expressin' yer feelins of who be walkin' the plank today!

You landlubbers have only 22 46 hours to ready the plank! Get with the discussin' and votin'!
Last edited by cjdrum on Thu Jun 09, 2011 9:56 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.
:shock:

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby webby » Thu Jun 09, 2011 8:14 am UTC

cjdrum wrote:None of ye be expressin' yer feelins of who be walkin' the plank today!

You landlubbers have only 22 hours to ready the plank! Get with the discussin' and votin'!


I thought we had until Saturday 4am UTC? Isn't that 46 rather than 22?

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Re: The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby roband » Thu Jun 09, 2011 8:21 am UTC

webby wrote:
roband wrote:webby, considering you pulled me and GoP up for agreeing with jay belatedly, I was surprised to see you say the below,
webby wrote:
In regards to the when scum win - 2-2 is a forced no-lynch as well, which with the nightkill is a definite loss


as its basically a copy of what I've said previously.


Where did you say that? There were only three posts between jayshu's question and my answer and none of them are yours.


It was much earlier in the game than that. I said
roband wrote:Assuming the worst, no power roles, even if we NL on day 1, a mislynch on day 2 leaves us with 2 scum and 2 town on day 3.


With less than a day until deadline, we need to be getting votes down. I don't think anyone currently deserves a vote, but an NL isn't ideal, as we've discussed. Erm, if forced to vote at this very second, it would be for one of Chandani (for the reaction to the random vote) or webby (for the picking at things I've done, which he has also done).

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Jun 09, 2011 8:22 am UTC

4:00 Saturday UTC?

Thats 1 day and 22 hours away!

Still, your point is made.

^ (Ninja'd by webby)

I'm getting a bad vibe off jayhsu. They seem too focused on the mechanics of the game, when all they really do is detract a bit from analysis, especially on day1. We know what the setup could be, and there is basically no better way to win than by analysing people, and finding scum. Claiming does not help us at all, because of all the wine that comes about. Maybe a late game strategy, but its not worth worrying about right now. The way jay is focusing on these factors feels to me to be a form of active lurking. There is also the way he tried to subtly put some blame on roband for his answer to the question.

Robot_Raptor: That last post of yours is the very definition of an active lurky post. You didn't even ask the questions cjdrum was replying to. And your post before that was just stating the obvious.
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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby roband » Thu Jun 09, 2011 8:25 am UTC

Actually, GoP makes a good point here.

I would also consider vote R_R, simply to apply pressure until we see some analysis - especially now we have more time than I thought :D

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby cjdrum » Thu Jun 09, 2011 9:54 am UTC

(arrr, they be pirate hours! If ye be speakin' in "normal" terms, ye be correct!)
:shock:

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby roband » Thu Jun 09, 2011 9:56 am UTC

Nice cover mod. So can you give us an accurate number of hours?

ta

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby cjdrum » Thu Jun 09, 2011 9:57 am UTC

Deadline is 42 "normal" hours from now. Sorry for confusion
:shock:

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby Robot_Raptor » Thu Jun 09, 2011 1:05 pm UTC

cjdrum wrote:(arrr, they be pirate hours! If ye be speakin' in "normal" terms, ye be correct!)


nice cover :roll:

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby webby » Thu Jun 09, 2011 1:12 pm UTC

Roband - I don't see how I was repeating what you said? Regardless, the point was not that you agreed/repeated something, but that you only did so after previously having the opportunity to respond to it.

Summary of jayhsu so far:
Spoiler:
Answer to questions, quoted from another game - neutral
Stuff on set-up, refutation of no-lynch - slightly townie, but I'm not going to give too much credit because I think someone else would have anyway.
Roband's answer was dodgy - neutral overall - slightly scummy because I think there was anything wrong with the answer, slightly townie because at least he's doing some scumhunting.
Would give benefit of doubt to roband and GoP over not discussing no-lynch until jayhsu brought it up - neutral
Asks about when scum win condition - neutral
Asks if doctor can self-protect - slightly odd because I thought jayhsu was an experienced player who would know the answer to that is generally no. But looking back, hasn't played many vanilla games before.
More questioning of rules, more discussion of the set-up. Mostly neutral.


I agree there is a lot (maybe too much) on set-up, but there's also at least as much scumhunting discussion as the average player so far (jayhsu has been very active). I agree on the point about being a little too aggressive on roband's answer.

Overall - not prepared to vote jayhsu yet, but would like some more discussion on who's scum over the constant stuff about set-up. Neutral.

Impressions on the other players:
Gopher - late agreement with jayhsu on no-lynch, thinks Ibarra vs Chandani is townie fight, accusation of jayhsu being active lurky. I don't quite agree, but it's a point in his favour that he's prepared to stick his head out and say who he thinks is scummy, when everyone else has held back a bit (things have been pointed out, but cautiously). Neutral to slightly townie (but note that I seem to always read Gopher as town regardless of his actual alignment :P)

roband - going to do a proper analysis for this one because a quick look read as scummy:
Spoiler:
- Answers questions - neutral
- Posts about regretting not waiting for a turbo. Asks R_R gender. Slightly scummy for posting without discussing, because there are no posts of substance from him in this time.
- Agrees with jayhsu on the no-lynch thing. Neutral to slightly scummy (not a big point in itself).
- Says he didn't post on the no-lynch topic because he was focussing on the questions and wanted time to consider the no-lynch options more carefully. Neutral
- Attacks me over calling him on the no-lynch thing based on me supposedly agreeing with him on the scum win condition topic. I'm not going to evaluate this for fear of wine + OMGUS
- Would vote for Chandani for her overreaction or me for picking at things he's done. Doesn't think anyone warrants a vote. Slightly scummy, but I'm sympathetic because I agree with him that nobody deserves a vote.
- GoP puts forward alternative candidates for the lynch and roband says he makes a good point and would consider voting R_R to apply pressure. Neutral.


Overall - neutral to slightly scummy.

Ibarra - asks questions to spark discussion. Random votes to spark discussion. Doesn't discuss all that much himself, however. Based on his lack of posting (which is fairly typical for Ibarra), I'm going to have to go on past games. I've played with both scum and town Ibarra. When he was scum, he didn't do the questions thing and when he was town he did, but I'm not sure how much to read into that. I note that when he was scum he looked for a town target (bantler) who had been posting oddly and jumped on them early. He did that to Chandani here (and got the reaction he was looking for if he was scum). Overall I'm pretty conflicted on this one. Neutral but with an IGMEOY and should post more.

Robot_Raptor - Newbie lurker, can't get anything out of his posts yet.

Chandani - Think her reaction to the random vote was overall neutral. No thoughts on who she thinks is scummy. A little lurky.

On who to lynch:
roband > Ibarra > Chandani > jayhsu > Gopher in my opinion is from scummiest to towniest so far. Robot_Raptor doesn't fit on the scale.
Robot_Raptor is better than a random lynch, but not ideal. (It seems that day 1 often sees the least pro-town acting player getting lynched, and this would be R_R)
I don't support a jayhsu lynch - I don't agree that he's been active lurking and I think that if he is scum, given that he's been the most overall active player, we'll have more information about him tomorrow than about other players left alive.

I'm going to wait until tomorrow (24 hours or so from now) before deciding where to place my vote. Activity in this time will help your cause.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby roband » Thu Jun 09, 2011 1:29 pm UTC

Robot_Raptor wrote:
cjdrum wrote:(arrr, they be pirate hours! If ye be speakin' in "normal" terms, ye be correct!)


nice cover :roll:


Content plz?

Vote: Robot_Raptor

Yay, managed to lose my net connection while typing that and ninja'd by webby:

I guess I can see your point about my 'lag' in talking about that topic, but I've given my reason for it already.
Eurgh. You say you're not going to comment on what I said about you, for fear of wine/omgus, but you use the word 'Attacks'?
Slightly OTT, no?

And the worst thing I've done is something which you're sympathetic with me about.

Regarding my "posting without discussing", I like to talk and will converse with people during a game, with things that might not be directly game related (off-topic, I guess). I like to think that I can avoid being called out for lurking when doing this, because I post so much content anyway.
But that's just my personality. I do it in every game I've ever played.

I don't know if your analysis of me makes me feel better or worse about your role in this game. I'mma have a think, but leave my vote where it is for now. Content is King.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby Chandani » Thu Jun 09, 2011 1:45 pm UTC

AHHH DEADLINE.
With that over.... expect a post from me in 7 or 8 hours with more content. I'll do a player by player look then. Sorry for the short post.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby jayhsu » Thu Jun 09, 2011 3:49 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:I'm getting a bad vibe off jayhsu. They seem too focused on the mechanics of the game, when all they really do is detract a bit from analysis, especially on day1. We know what the setup could be, and there is basically no better way to win than by analysing people, and finding scum.


I suppose I could analyze you, but you have not posted very much at all, analysis, speculation or otherwise. But I'll try:

GoP by post
Spoiler:
Page 1
1. Confirmation
2. Answers to questions. Seems to prefer analysis to gut reactions.
3. Refuting the No Lynch idea, which, as webby has pointed out, was a few posts after mine. Interesting that he advocates NL if there is a cop, but later states that claiming does not help us at all.
Gopher of Pern wrote:The only reason I see to do that was if we knew we had a cop, where we would get information each day. As it is, theres no real benefit from doing it.

Gopher of Pern wrote:Claiming does not help us at all, because of all the wine that comes about.

4. Comments on Ibarra v Chandani, and speculates that a cop is not very useful anyway, as they are likely to die. Shrug. It doesn't help us to think about it that way.

Page 2
5. Comments on myself and Robot Raptor. I do agree on the sentiment on Robot Raptor, but not myself (see below).


Onto responses to GoP:

Gopher of Pern wrote:Claiming does not help us at all, because of all the wine that comes about. Maybe a late game strategy, but its not worth worrying about right now.


Patently false. As I hope I made clear in my previous (apparently useless) posts, a cop MUST claim if we are about to mislynch on D2 (assuming worst case scenarios for D1), or we WILL lose. With only 7 people, I doubt there will be very much of a 'late' game, and I would even go so far as to say that a cop MUST claim on D3 with any and all results. The fact that roles are revealed on death is a boon to us - it gives the cop and doctor (if any) more information to go on for the night.

As for doctors, they should only claim if they are about to be lynched - that makes sense to me.

Gopher of Pern wrote:The way jay is focusing on these factors feels to me to be a form of active lurking.


Interesting sentiment. I would say that your dearth of posts would be active lurking as well.

Gopher of Pern wrote:There is also the way he tried to subtly put some blame on roband for his answer to the question.

Again, addressed in a previous post - being clear about your positions only helps town. That said, I do not find roband particularly suspicious, and again, would not vote on the basis of it alone.

Overall: I'm interested to see that you think my analysis is detracting from the game, and that you think analysing people is the best way to win. I certainly agree with that sentiment, and so I've done an analysis of you, here. What I find more interesting is that you have not followed your own advice besides some offhanded analysis of me, unsubstantiated by evidence, quotes, etc. Seems hypocritical to me, and actually pretty scummy. Coupled with contradictory statements about cop claims (one of which is completely false - a cop MUST claim under worst case scenarios), I think I'm comfortable with

Vote: Gopher of Pern

I will post my meter of scumminess in a moment.
-Jay

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby jayhsu » Thu Jun 09, 2011 4:07 pm UTC

Scum-Town Continuum (More town as you go down - hey that rhymes).

Scum
GoP

Neutral
Robot Raptor
Ibarra
Roband

Town
Chandani
Webby
Jay

GoP: For reasons stated above.
Robot Raptor: Claims to be a natural lurker, and very few posts, almost no analysis. I would vote RR if I had any more to go on, but there isn't.
Ibarra: Few posts and 'random' vote on Chandani. I read the reasoning for random voting and I don't think I agree with it; did provoke an interesting response from Chandani however, but I think it was an overreaction. Has not given thoughts on any other players and no real analysis.
Roband: My only real strike is the ambiguity on that one question, and thats not much at all. Really, I think Roband has been lurking a little, but his vote on RR seems generally solid to me (not much to analyze, as there's not much there), and his posts have enough useful content to me.
Chandani: Possible overreaction to Ibarra's vote, but my instinct is town here. Considered no lynch, but I think that's an honest mistake - I made the same mistake in a previous game and was lynched (incorrectly) over it, so I think I'm biased. Hasn't posted much of late, but her posts are all right to me. I think that manatee also messes with my head.
Webby: Useful posts and good at getting discussion started. Makes points that I wholly agree with (and sometimes copied, accidentally). Good analysis of players overall recently.
Jay: If I didn't think I was the most townie (being town and all), I'd recommend you lynch me.
-Jay

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby Ibarra » Thu Jun 09, 2011 4:43 pm UTC

roband:
Although we're pinched for time and all, I really don't think voting someone out of lack of content is very solid.
Lack of content given is a null tell. A vote on someone scummy is better than a vote on the premise of nothing.

At this moment, nothing has really pinged me expect perhaps, Chandani's reaction, ergo I will place my vote back up again.
Vote: Chandani
Red text is for solid facts.
Blue text is for accusations.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby roband » Thu Jun 09, 2011 5:31 pm UTC

Jay - what makes you think I've been lurking? Inactive, for a couple of days, maybe. But I would not call that lurking.

Ibarra - it's a vote to apply pressure in order to give us something to work with. Right now, I have no reading on R_R at all.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby jayhsu » Thu Jun 09, 2011 5:40 pm UTC

Yeah, I guess that's a better word for it. I suppose that hasn't been the case recently anyway. Obviously I can't know if you were lurking or not in the early days of the game, but I'll give the benefit of the doubt.
-Jay

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Jun 09, 2011 10:35 pm UTC

Interesting.

Jayhsu, what you are forgetting in all your analysis about the game is the chance for false-claiming. Scum can easily falseclaim on day2, if things go bad for town. If a cop claims, we MUST take it with a grain of salt, as we do not know if we do indeed have one or not. So, indeed, with your analysis a scum MUST falseclaim if the other is going to be lynched day2.

You are not thinking as a smart townie.

A dearth of posts is not active lurking. It is called passive lurking.

Then an OMGUS vote. Very nice.

Onto other things:

Roband, I don't agree with the vote on R-R (At least Roadie_Rich isnt in this game!) They are new, and we often lynch new lurkers and they flop town. I think there are more scummy people out there, so it looks like you are going for the easy lynch.

I don't like Ibarra's vote either. I know where coming up on a deadline, but the reaction was a reasonable one to what I thought was an unreasonable vote in the first place.

Webby:
Spoiler:
webby wrote:Neutral to slightly townie (but note that I seem to always read Gopher as town regardless of his actual alignment :P)


Really? I'm usually a shitty scum player. Thank you!


At this stage my scum list is:

jayhsu
ibarra
roband
chandani
webby

R-R is excluded for the time being.
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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby webby » Thu Jun 09, 2011 11:39 pm UTC

Responses to things during (my) night:

Roband - that's the second time you've missed my point. I wasn't saying it was scummy to make friendly/conversational style posts, I was saying that making those posts implies that you're reading the thread etc., so that to not post some content as well as those contentless posts is scummy.

Chandani, close to 10 hours have passed. Looking forward to your post!

jayhsu, good to see you doing some analysis of players. Apart from on GoP, I broadly agree with your conclusions. I don't see the contradiction in what GoP said about cops. Even if I don't agree with him, I can see where his suspicion of you came from - if you took a cursory look through your posts, you would see it dominated by discussion on set-up. It's the fact that you've posted so much that means you can get away with this, because the minority of your posts that have analysed players is still as much content as most players have given.

Ibarra, I disagree, I think that was the reaction you would have got whether she was town or scum. Furthermore, I can see scum looking for that sort of reaction from a townie player and using it to start a bandwagon. FOS for the vote, especially when you've made no real attempt to analyse other players.

Gopher, I agree with your point on Robot_Raptor, but I'm very worried about a situation where we have 3-2 and he's one of the three (which happens if we get the lynch wrong). That's what's tempting me to vote for him, I'm only held back by the fact that there's a 2/3 chance of him flipping town. If everyone else in the game was acting more townie, I would vote for him (partly by process of elimnation).

In light of the night's posts, my new scumlist:
1. Ibarra
2. Roband
3. Chandani
-- Robot Raptor (notionally put here because I think the players above have a greater than 1/3 chance of being scum, below have less than 1/3)
4. jayhsu
5. Gopher

It's interesting that we seem to have three battles going on - me and roband, Ibarra and Chandani, and jayhsu and Gopher. At least one of these has to be a town battle - I think this is most likely to be jayhsu and Gopher, and that Ibarra vs Chandani is likely to contain at least one scum.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby Chandani » Fri Jun 10, 2011 1:08 am UTC

Bleh, I'm a horrible procrastinator.
If anyone was expecting a post-by-post analysis... no. I'm doing an impression post here.

1.jayshu: Hmmm.... I'm going to look at his posts in more detail.
2.Gopher of Pern: Thinks jayhsu is acting scummy for focus on game mechanism and not who is being scummy. Nothing seems out of place: maybe a bit more critical against jay, but nothing major.
3.roband : Seems to be pretty okay: again, lurking like most of the people, though at least has posted opinions on scumminess and stuff. Current vote on R_R isn't too bad for me: I don't see anything inherently wrong with a pressure vote, but I would not like it staying to the end of the game.
4.Ibarra: Decided to throw in RVS to make people more active, which was kind of weird (as in not expected). I don't know if it really worked... Hasn't put much else into the game other than the questions and voting. Again, like many others, could be more involved.
5.Robot_Raptor: has been decently lurky, but is a newbie: hopefully he'll be more involved soon. It seemed to be implied that he might write up an analysis (with 'this will be useful for my analysis') so... can he? That would be nice.
6.webby: Has taken upon themself to keep the game moving with questions and stuff. I would put this up as being townie: this is their normal town behavior, as far as I can remember, so nothing weird here. Don't see anything wrong with their opinions on a cursory glance, so I feel decently confident in saying town. Aaand then I start looking at roband's posts and then look at webby's analysis (I didn't want to influence my view of roband before). I don't really find any of roband's actions scummy (frankly, none of them don't make sense, and none are really lurkery, in mind) so I find webby's analysis a bit biased, especially with the word 'attacked' for roband bringing up the fact that webby was on him for an action that webby did (in a non-attacking way). So now I'm eh.
7.Chandani

So... jayhsu. He's getting a post by post. BUT WAIT, you might say, webby did a look! Okay, then, let me post it here for a comparison to mine, plus I'll make some comments.
Spoiler:
Webby wrote:Answer to questions, quoted from another game - neutral
Stuff on set-up, refutation of no-lynch - slightly townie, but I'm not going to give too much credit because I think someone else would have anyway.
Roband's answer was dodgy - neutral overall - slightly scummy because I think there was anything wrong with the answer, slightly townie because at least he's doing some scumhunting.
Would give benefit of doubt to roband and GoP over not discussing no-lynch until jayhsu brought it up - neutral
Asks about when scum win condition - neutral
Asks if doctor can self-protect - slightly odd because I thought jayhsu was an experienced player who would know the answer to that is generally no. But looking back, hasn't played many vanilla games before.
More questioning of rules, more discussion of the set-up. Mostly neutral.
I don't disagree with anything per se: I'm not sure you should give brownie points for scumhunting. The doctor thing I agree is kind of odd. More on that later.

Analysis!
Spoiler:
10 posts
1.Confirms!
2. Answers Qs
3. Comments on roband's lack of answer.Does some percentage thing, though I don't know why he has a average for town, since there will always be 5 town in the game, unless he meant vanilla? Points out possible strategy, problem of falseclaiming. Talks about danger of NL, especially when there is no cop.
4. Talks about potential dodginess of roband's non-answer. Maybe it's just me, but maybe roband was being lazy and stuff? Dunno. I can see why it would be a bit pingy, but I doubt it's enough to say that
I wouldn't vote Roband on the basis of it, but it certainly doesn't make him town.
I mean, that seems quite serious. Would give roband and GoP benefit of doubt for missing NL idea. Reiterates thoughts about NL, though says that we should follow claimed cop's recommendation (which is dangerous because of falseclaiming). Asks clarifying question.
5. Doesn't state anything new after learning about what majority is, and then asks if a doctor can self protect.
The logic of asking if the doctor can self-protect in thread is weak, especially since there doesn't seem to be any reason to ask it. It just makes it more dangerous for the doctor to claim in the end: before, scum wouldn't know if the doctor could self-protect (since, depending on the game, people can self protect, but sometime there are limits or other rules), and thus would have to go into a guessing game into deciding whether to kill the doctor or to kill someone else. Now, well: they can just kill the doctor.

I feel like in past games with doctors people don't ask that question because it helps scum. So now I'm like eh.
6. Some stats on worst-case scenarios. I was going to be all 'why no LYLOs?' but worst-case means we fail. Takeaways: the first one has been previously stated, the second one is useful, the third one is okay but jay assumes that we can trust the cop, once again. Asks if roles will be revealed.
7. EBWOP: notices webby came to same conclusion on 2-2, whoops!
8. Decides to analyze GoP because... they got a bad vibe off him? I'm not really sure of the reasoning. There is one point which I hold against his analysis: #3 since it ignores falseclaims (which is made more ironic because of the included quote which explains why claiming isn't useful). I do agree that we're probably not going to reach 'late game' with 7 people sitting around. Once again, however, falseclaims are ignored. Yes, a cop should claim if we're going to mislynch. BUT WE DON'T KNOW IF THEY'RE ACTUALLY A COP. They could be scum trying to save their buddy. And we can't even wait for people to claim in response, since we don't know the set up. We cannot treat this game like a normal one since we don't know what we're dealing with: therefore, every move must be treated with suspicion. Jay didn't seem to realize that active lurking=posting without content, not lack of content, which is iffy but nothing too major. I also find it interesting that a few comments about a vibe equal analysis: I wouldn't characterize it like that at all: GoP just stated an opinion. I can see that lack of evidence could bug jay, though it would be mean to expect everyone to do something like this every time they wanted to make a claim. I don't see how the statements are contradictory when falseclaims are put into play.
9.States opinion on players. I find it funny that manatees mess with your head. :P
10. Rescinds remark about lurking by replacing it with inactivity, which seems kind of weird for me, since they mean the same thing in my head, but that's not something I should base scumminess off

All in all: jay seems to be assuming that we can trust cops or other claimed power roles. A lot. And seems to be basing the analysis off this. I don't like the doctor thing either: it seems weird that he asked that at all, since the post didn't really need it. I am very willing to vote for jay at this point.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby roband » Fri Jun 10, 2011 8:51 am UTC

posting from my phone, so I can't do quotes and stuff - but a massive FOS at those who have called me out for 'lurking'.
please, please show where I have lurked. I'm only annoyed because its something I don't ever do. I think 3 people have said it now - there must be scum in there somewhere, latching onto a misworded phrase said by someone else.
That annoys me.

I'll answer questions from points raised since I last posted, when I can get to a PC.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby webby » Fri Jun 10, 2011 10:39 am UTC

[quote="Chandani"for an action that webby did[/quote]

You'll actually find that I didn't, and that roband was, whether intentionally or otherwise, distorting the facts. That was what I found scummy more than the initial action.

Roband, if I'm one of the people who used 'lurker', I was talking in regards to the start of the thread, where you posted some contentless posts, and no contentful ones. You certainly haven't been a lurker since.

Overall though, I'll consider the roband thing more tomorrow. For now, I think my post from this morning stands and I have a choice between voting Ibarra and Robot_Raptor. I'm hoping one or both of them will come along in the next few hours before voting.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby webby » Fri Jun 10, 2011 12:22 pm UTC

Hmm, timezone problems, seems everyone posts while I'm asleep!

I should have a bit of time tomorrow morning to change my vote if necessary, but for now:

Vote: Ibarra

I explained this in my post this morning, I think his actions read as scum trying to get a reaction out of another player so that he can justify lynching them. Apart from his attacks on Chandani, he hasn't posted any analysis or good content.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby Chandani » Fri Jun 10, 2011 1:02 pm UTC

roband: For lurker vs. inactive: to me, they are interchangeable. If that is incorrect, I'll attempt to use correct vocab later on.
If you're going with calling you a lurker... you're on par with most of everyone else, and above R_R, who really is lurking. So everyone else was kind of lurking, in my point of view.
(If this doesn't make sense, sorry)

I'm also not sure what webby was trying to say...

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby roband » Fri Jun 10, 2011 11:01 pm UTC

ah shit, its been a helluva day. still on my phone, so no specifics. I'm really annoyed at robot raptor for not posting. this will not be tolerated in future days.

for now
UNVOTE

I can't do bold from my phone apparently.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby jayhsu » Fri Jun 10, 2011 11:23 pm UTC

I've cooled my suspicion on GOP somewhat (his rebuttal was useful), but he's still my best candidate for today (though Robot_Raptor is throttling up there with his insistence on not posting). I'm not sure about Ibarra, but they are seeming pretty lurky to me.

Unvote
Mod, what are the votals?

Final aside: I am not saying that we must trust a cop claim, I am saying that a cop must claim on D2 under worst-case scenarios. Subtle difference.
-Jay

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby Gopher of Pern » Fri Jun 10, 2011 11:30 pm UTC

I'm still somewhat suspicious of jayhsu, but as there is no way to get a majority on him, and Ibarra was next in line:

Vote: Ibarra

If I count that right, thats 2 for Ibarra, and 1 for Chandani (from Ibarra)

I don't think I will be back before deadline.
Look In My Face
Stare In My Soul
I Begin To Stupefy

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby cjdrum » Fri Jun 10, 2011 11:55 pm UTC

Vote Count

Chandani (1) - Ibarra
Ibarra (2) - Chandani, Gopher of Pern


About 6 hours to deadline.
:shock:

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby roband » Sat Jun 11, 2011 12:20 am UTC

its way past my bedtime but I need to get a vote down.
webby has explained what created my issues with him somewhat, which leaves me with only chandani whom I have had an issue with.

VOTE: CHANDANI

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby webby » Sat Jun 11, 2011 1:00 am UTC

Don't have much time, but doesn't matter because there's practically nothing new anyway - neither Ibarra nor Robot_Raptor have posted. But really, we're this close to deadline and only four people have voted? Surely we can do better than that.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby webby » Sat Jun 11, 2011 1:01 am UTC

Oh and it was me that voted Ibarra, I don't think Chandani has?

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby Chandani » Sat Jun 11, 2011 1:12 am UTC

Yeah... last time I checked I unvoted.
On the other hand... we are currently in a tie, which would let us have 24 hours to change our vote. I'm not sure what happens to the people who don't vote: can they vote, or are they out?
I'm asking this as a mod question, but I'm not sure if cjdrum will answer in time . :( So I'm not going to touch the tie and
Vote: jayhsu
Just in case that people who don't vote cannot affect the votals in that 24 hour period.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby cjdrum » Sat Jun 11, 2011 1:25 am UTC

The 24 hour extension is for all players. Also, it does extend into the weekend. Try not to use it.


Also,
New and Improved Vote Count :oops:
Chandani (2) - Ibarra, roband
Ibarra (2) - webby, Gopher of Pern
jayhsu (1) - Chandani


About 4.5 hours til deadline. That's a 2-hour extension, I just realised too ;)
:shock:

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby Robot_Raptor » Sat Jun 11, 2011 3:34 am UTC

right, i've been short on time, but i made http://i.imgur.com/jXZgm.png

Long story short, on average if we don't vote to lynch anyone, after the first turn we'll have:
2.07 more town than scum.
40% chance of having a cop.
40% chance of having a doctor.
15% chance of having both.

If, instead we do lynch, on average we'll end up with:
1.59 more town than scum.
32.9% chance of having a cop.
32.9% chance of having a doctor.
9.7% chance of having both.

The extra half a day of analysis seems worth it to me, hence.

No Lynch

P.S. Don't worry, i'm slowly building up personality profiles, but buying us time is a good idea.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby Robot_Raptor » Sat Jun 11, 2011 3:37 am UTC

I am seriously comptemplating changing my vote to jayhsu just so that Jayhsu has all the power.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Daaaay One!

Postby cjdrum » Sat Jun 11, 2011 5:58 am UTC

End of Day One

"Arrr, ye men really are useless! If we arrr to rid our ship of these 'Ninjas', we have to get rid of some people!"

The pirates all stood around, half-heartedly pointing fingers at some other people, when they suddenly realised that the sun was nearly completely set!

"No no no no no no! Wait! We need some more time!"

And the sun reluctantly stayed where it was, but only for a little while...


It is now Day One and a Bit. You have 24 hours to decide on a lynch.
For votals see my previous post.
:shock:


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