[m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Game Ov-arrrr!

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Ibarra
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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Day One and a Little Whil

Postby Ibarra » Sat Jun 11, 2011 6:13 am UTC

I would prefer a Chandani lynch (obviously) over my lynch.
I've already stated that her (over)reaction was suspicious over just a random vote.
I don't quite buy the excuses she said after.

Mod: So how do we settle the tie? We vote for one of the others?
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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Day One and a Little Whil

Postby cjdrum » Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:50 am UTC

Ibarra wrote:Mod: So how do we settle the tie? We vote for one of the others?

This 24 hour period is merely an extension of the day - vote for whoever you want.

After these 24 hours, however, a tied vote will result in no lynch.
:shock:

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Day One and a Little Whil

Postby Ibarra » Sat Jun 11, 2011 9:11 am UTC

Oh. I thought town had to decide between those who tied.
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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Day One and a Little Whil

Postby roband » Sat Jun 11, 2011 9:38 am UTC

I'm still wanting to vote for chandani.

or maybe RR. even with that new post, nothing is screaming town at me.

posting.from phone.again :(

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Day One and a Little Whil

Postby roband » Sat Jun 11, 2011 2:59 pm UTC

guys, something needs to happen for this vote to change.

mod, what would happen if the vote was tied after the 24 hours?

we don't want that to happen, if we can help it.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Day One and a Little Whil

Postby jayhsu » Sat Jun 11, 2011 3:28 pm UTC

We've already ascertained that a NL is not desirable for town; with your posting record, I don't think we'd get much more analysis from you - just more time for scum to NK folks.

Ibarra has still not posted any real substance in the game or analysis beyond her gut on Chandani (see answers to initial questions), and I think that's enough for me to vote. I've made my reasoning in prior posts.

Vote: Ibarra
-Jay

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Day One and a Little Whil

Postby roband » Sat Jun 11, 2011 3:46 pm UTC

jay, was that post directed at RR?

did you miss that the game has moved to a new page?

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Day One and a Little Whil

Postby Ibarra » Sat Jun 11, 2011 4:15 pm UTC

jayhsu wrote:Ibarra has still not posted any real substance in the game or analysis beyond her gut on Chandani (see answers to initial questions), and I think that's enough for me to vote. I've made my reasoning in prior posts.

Yes I have already told my reasoning on my vote on Chandani. That reaction was too much for just a random vote. For me, it looks like scum surprised and reacting to that.

As for the analysis, you can call me lazy, but I've also stated that the only thing that pinged me so far (until now) is Chandani's (over)reaction.
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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Day One and a Little Whil

Postby webby » Sat Jun 11, 2011 10:34 pm UTC

Quick post - chess tournament all weekend so not posting much.

Robot_Raptor, you're assuming we lynch at random. We should be able to do better than that, and in particular we get information from who voted for the person who got lynched, because we'll be told the alignment of the lynchee.

Ibarra, what distinguishes between surprised town and surprised scum?

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Day One and a Little Whil

Postby Gopher of Pern » Sat Jun 11, 2011 11:09 pm UTC

I think I'd actually prefer a R-R vote over Ibarra atm. Their post, while technically it helps town, really does not give us any information we dont already have. But that would involve invoking a tie again, so i'll keep my vote where it is.
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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ Day One and a Little Whil

Postby cjdrum » Sun Jun 12, 2011 6:16 am UTC

Final Vote Count of Day One!
Chandani (2) - Ibarra, roband
Ibarra (3) - webby, Gopher of Pern, jayhsu
jayhsu (1) - Chandani


After a long day and a bit of discussion, the plank was readied.

Gopher of Pern and jayhsu then proceeded to take Ibarra to the edge.

With a small prod, Ibarra's body fell into the ocean. From where he landed, a small puff of green smoke appeared, and from somewhere on the ship a voice was heard:

"Huh. Vanilla. Better get this right tomorrow."


Ibarra has been lynched. He was a Vanilla Townie.

Night ends in 48 hours, not including weekends - so that's 11:59 Tuesday, UTC-4.
Remember, the faster your actions are sent, the more time you will have for Day Two.
:shock:

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ N1: A Pirate's Life for M

Postby Ibarra » Sun Jun 12, 2011 9:31 am UTC

Just so you guys know, I can swim perfectly fine ;)
Go town.
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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby cjdrum » Sun Jun 12, 2011 10:42 pm UTC

The ship was silent. Everybody was sleeping...

Well, not quite.


As Gopher of Pern slept, he dreamt of a much better life. The treasure after traversing Sea Nine? Wow... It'd be life changing.
"Life changing... Treasuuure...", he murmured in his sleep.

Sadly, it was not to be. He was dragged out to the centre of the deck, plain to see as anything.

And, needless to say: he won't be getting any treasure any more.


Gopher of Pern has been killed. He was a Vanilla Townie.


It is now Day Two.
Day Two will end as close as possible to the midnight between Friday and Saturday, UTC-4.



Votes
Not Voting (5) - Chandani, jayhsu, roband, Robot_Raptor, webby

With 5 players, it takes 3 votes to lynch send a landlubber overboard!
:shock:

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby Chandani » Mon Jun 13, 2011 2:18 am UTC

Well, great.
Peoples shouldn't vote without regard since there are two ninjas out there: one vote on a townie and they can hammer us like there's no tomorrow.

My suspicion ranks like this:
Jayhsu (stated before)
R_R (lurking)
and roband and webby are tied. GoP's death makes me lean towards jay, though that could have been a scum play to make me think that.
Though it's interesting that GoP was killed after publicly stating that he prefers a R_R lynch... but that's just more wine. Sigh.

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roband
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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby roband » Mon Jun 13, 2011 11:12 am UTC

Ok, so we're minus Ibarra and GoP.

Ibarra was suspicious of Chandani, and only Chandani.
GoP was suspicious of jay and RR.

The votes were:
Chandani (2) - Ibarra, roband
Ibarra (3) - webby, Gopher of Pern, jayhsu
jayhsu (1) - Chandani

I don't like that RR was very short on content AND didn't vote. In fact, thinking about it further - it would be so easy for scum to sit back and let everyone else worry about the deadline and then say "ah, but I didn't vote for anyone" the next day...
I don't like that at all.

I can understand the reasons people have been suspicious of jay, but I'm not quite swayed by it, to be honest. He seems fairly neutral to me (but at this point, neutral could be enough to be lynched).

Chandani is still up there on my list. Suspicious yesterday. Suspected by the lynchee, who was town. Voted for someone who wasn't getting any heat, and admitted that this was in order to NOT clear the tie. I think an OMGUS vote for Ibarra would have been LESS suspicious than voting for jay.

webby, I'm feeling is pretty townie. No real reason, just gut.


Right now, I wanna see some content from RR.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby Robot_Raptor » Mon Jun 13, 2011 11:31 am UTC

Interesting, i'm still alive.

Of course, knowing how these things usually go for me, you lot will remedy that oversight by tommorow. :/

Regardless, the lynch went as bad as it possibly could for us, anyway i'd been holding off on any assessment till now, in the hopes that you people would see reason and no-lynch that first night. (also, it's easier to write up about 5 people than 7)

---

Chandani wrote:R_R (lurking)


I'm not so much lurking as have nothing of import to say, i'm perfectly happy sitting here watching you lot shoot everyone in the foot.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby roband » Mon Jun 13, 2011 11:55 am UTC

Robot_Raptor wrote:Regardless, the lynch went as bad as it possibly could for us


This is a ridiculous thing to say. It went as WELL as it could possibly go. Scum are never going to NK their own, the only better thing would be a successful doctor. It would have been much worse if a doctor or cop was NK'd.

Robot_Raptor wrote:I'm not so much lurking as have nothing of import to say, i'm perfectly happy sitting here watching you lot shoot everyone in the foot.


Are you shitting me? I hope you realise how anti-town you saying that is? If we were not in a danger of scum performing a quick lynch, I would be voting for you right now...

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby Robot_Raptor » Mon Jun 13, 2011 12:14 pm UTC

EBWOP - damnit, hit submit instead of preview -_-

roband wrote:I don't like that RR was very short on content AND didn't vote. In fact, thinking about it further - it would be so easy for scum to sit back and let everyone else worry about the deadline and then say "ah, but I didn't vote for anyone" the next day...
I don't like that at all.


What was there to say? Seriously, i'm not a fan of the whole "Let's be huge fucking paranoid morons, grasping at non-existant straws while allowing actual scum to run amok and wreak havok by playing us for fools" stratagem. That said, it's pretty obvious you lot were, and look how well that worked out for us. Image

My strategy last turn was based on the assumption that you lot were all idiots, and randomness was a proper approximation of how well you'd actually be able to tease out any hidden motives and shenanigans. Also, i had content, content that explained exactly why i didn't vote.

Obviously, a sample size of 1 is too small to draw any actual conclusions on how effective you all are, but i feel kinda vindicated regardless.

---

As for analysis, i'm not going to do a full writeup now, but three thoughts occur to me.

First, the two scum will probably have voted for the same person in order to push the vote away from them, and since ibarra and GoP are town, that leaves webby, and jayhsu as obvious users of that tactic.

Secondly, i'm suspicious of jayhsu's offhand dismissal of my analysis, since it was obviously in the mafia's best intrest to have a lynch that day.

Third, there is literally nothing i can do to make roband think i'm not scum (assuming he's not scum, if he is, it's a nice way to deflect suspicion anyway), mainly because, in acting like a townie, albeit an uninterested and sardonic one, i'm doing exactly what scum would do. Hindsight Bias is a bitch. I suspect a good way to play the first turn in an open game, would be to write up what you think optimal strategies for mafia and town would be, taking into account special niggling for each special role, and then post a hash of said analysis so you can't change it before revealing it the next day.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby Robot_Raptor » Mon Jun 13, 2011 12:20 pm UTC

roband wrote:
Robot_Raptor wrote:Regardless, the lynch went as bad as it possibly could for us


This is a ridiculous thing to say. It went as WELL as it could possibly go. Scum are never going to NK their own, the only better thing would be a successful doctor. It would have been much worse if a doctor or cop was NK'd.


There were two options.

1) The lynch killed a scum
2) The lynch killed a townie

1 is clearly better than 2.

2 happened.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby roband » Mon Jun 13, 2011 12:35 pm UTC

Robot_Raptor wrote:
roband wrote:
Robot_Raptor wrote:Regardless, the lynch went as bad as it possibly could for us


This is a ridiculous thing to say. It went as WELL as it could possibly go. Scum are never going to NK their own, the only better thing would be a successful doctor. It would have been much worse if a doctor or cop was NK'd.


There were two options.

1) The lynch killed a scum
2) The lynch killed a townie

1 is clearly better than 2.

2 happened.


Yeah, my mistake here. You said lynch, I read NK ;) Apologies.

I have lots of thoughts on what you posted in the first 2 of those 3 messages, but I will have to come back to it later

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby roband » Mon Jun 13, 2011 11:08 pm UTC

I know this isn't a turbo, but jeez, is anyone out there?

My thoughts on RRs content above are basically that it's all rubbish. The 'strategy' that referred to the rest of us as morons isn't going to go down to well, especially as it equated to 'sit back and do nothing'. Nice work :(

The only sensible part of your posts so far is the last 3 points you raise, all of which seem valid and were good to bring up.

Moar posts plz? Jay and webby, I'm looking at you..

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby Chandani » Tue Jun 14, 2011 12:03 am UTC

Yeah, R_R's posts haven't been very... insightful, to say the least.

@roband: I'm not sure why keeping the tie was a bad thing. The way I saw it, there wasn't enough input in general from the people I was looking at (especially Ibarra). And while yes, I was avoiding a OMGUS vote, I thought the 24 hour period would be a good thing for town in general for discussion.
In addition, while I did vote for someone who wasn't getting much heat, I voted for someone who I thought was scummy. Ibarra, while he bugged me, wasn't really scummy per se: there was only one action that really defined him. I would have voted for Ibarra if we needed to get a lynch.

Hmmm... I remember somewhere that webby presupposed that out of the three fights happening, at least one was townie/townie.
There was:
jayhsu/GoP
Ibarra/Chandani
roband/ webby

We know that both GoP and Ibarra are townie. I know that Ibarra/Chandani is townie/townie, but that's too winey for everyone else. Which means that out of jayhsu/roband/webby/Chandani* there has to be at least one scum. Duh. Of course, the only real thing we have to go off is the arguments, so that would be a good thing to look over right now: in addition, for roband/webby, there's a chance of a scum/scum fight going on, so that has to be taken into consideration as well, though I don't know if roband or webby are the kind to do a fight without any planning at all. :/

And this totally discounts R_R who could be scum playing badly or newb playing badly, and I'm too nice to newbs to tell the difference.

*For people on tally: take off your name since you're 'town'. Congratulations! You got your 'there has to be at least one scum on this list' group! R_R... well, there's two scum in this group since... it's the remaining players in the game. (Note: the assumption is that everyone will state that they are town)

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby webby » Tue Jun 14, 2011 12:06 am UTC

Yes I'm back now. I forgot it wasn't a long weekend in all parts of the world, so when I said 'weekend', I thought you'd realise it meant monday as well. :P

First I'll address the last few posts:

Robot_Raptor, about your no-lynch idea. Your analysis of why no lynch would be better stopped at day 2. The optimal strategy on day 2 would be to no lynch (4 town, 2 scum), so we'd get to 3 town, 2 scum anyway. Therefore, we'd be in exactly the same position, only without the information on who voted for who on day 1, and the possibility of having one more cop result. But cop results aren't going to be particularly useful in this position, because we can't really trust them - a scum player could claim that they're the cop. That is why no-lynch is worse than a bad lynch. That's even before we consider the possibility that our random lynch hits scum.

I have no idea about Robot_Raptor's alignment. I might have to go to the ultimate meta - seeing what I can figure out about his personality by looking at his posts elsewhere on the forum. :P Don't have time for that right now. Leaning town if his belief that no-lynch is the right strategy is genuine, because he did quite a bit of work on showing it to be the case. For now I'd be leaning towards saying it is genuine.

Next time I post (this afternoon or tomorrow) I'll try to look at some possible connections between players.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby webby » Tue Jun 14, 2011 1:23 pm UTC

Ok, so we have about 3.5 days left, that's not that long.

There are 6 possible scum teams (obviously not including myself):

jayhsu-roband - jayhsu brings up a small point about roband's answers to the questions. In a 2 line post, roband says that GoP makes a good point about jayhsu, then says he'd consider voting R_R (and eventually does so). Not much else between them - jayhsu rates roband as neutral.
Possible team, because there's some distancing without the thought that either are going to vote for each other/try to get each other lynched.

jayhsu-Robot_Raptor - jayhsu rates Robot_Raptor as second-scummiest. Nothing else. Unknown.

jayhsu-Chandani - Chandani votes for jayhsu when jayhsu has no chance of getting lynched. jayhsu decides the lynch as Ibarra over Chandani. However, Chandani has been pretty consistently saying that jayhsu is the most suspicious in her mind and seems to be trying to get him lynched. Neutral - possible distancing but seems to have gone further than that given the game situation.

roband-Robot_Raptor - reasonably unlikely, only way it could be is if roband is willing to bus Robot_Raptor. Not likely given the game situation.

roband-Chandani - Unlikely given roband's vote could have got Chandani lynched.

Robot_Raptor-Chandani - unknown.

Most to least likely scum teams:
jayhsu-roband
jayhsu-Chandani
roband-Robot_Raptor
roband-Chandani

The other two possible teams there's not enough to find links etc. between them. I think based on that either jayhsu or Robot_Raptor (or both) is scum, simply because I think roband-Chandani is unlikely. I don't think roband would have bussed day 1, and roband tied the vote at 2-2 (albeit with Chandani still to vote).

I could look very stupid at the end of the game for saying that. :P

So that's before I consider players individually, I'll do that another time.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby jayhsu » Tue Jun 14, 2011 1:45 pm UTC

Sorry, back from a long weekend as well.

Some thoughts:

-I'd forgotten that scum could speedhammer and it bears reiterating (if nothing than for myself) - with 2 scum and 5 players remaining, 1 incorrect townie vote could result in a quick scumhammer. Something important to keep in mind.

-@RR: If it was an offhand dismissal of your NL idea, it was only because we had previously discussed it and decided it was not a valid option. Webby and others have addressed this as well. Hindsight is 20-20 after all - if we'd discovered that Ibarra was scum, you'd be under more intense scrutiny today. I will grant you however, that choosing NL and subsequently discovering that we'd lynched a townie does make you look more town, with the important caveat that you could not have known Ibarra was town. And of course, it could always be a scumwine play.

-No new reads on Chandani or Roband - see previous analysis posts. Webby looks more town to me with proper analysis of the NL idea. Thanks for the insight.

-@WebbyNinja: Interesting analysis. I would point out that your own points seem to refute a possibility that both RR and I are scum, as I think I have been fairly hard on him throughout the game - something you have taken into account for other players.

Still, a useful analysis. My scum/town continuum is as such:

Scum
Robot Raptor
Roband
Chandani
Webby
Jay
Town

I know I am town and I am largely convinced that Webby is town. I can't decide between Roband and Chandani, and will have to do further analysis on both of them. However, your analysis has convinced me that RR is scum, and I believe I will vote on him by the end of the day.
-Jay

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby roband » Tue Jun 14, 2011 2:33 pm UTC

webby - I'm a little disappointed that you didn't look into your own links with other players, even a cursory glance, just to show that you accept that you're not guaranteed town to anyone else.
I think this might just be the 'important game stage' paranoia kicking in.
Also, I'm a bit under the weather to be doing this task myself right now, but it's on my to do list.

jay - I'm disappointed to see myself above Chandani on your list, but I can see the reasoning.

I don't like where we are right now... RR might as well have painted himself in neon green paint as far as I'm concerned, he seems so scummy it's unreal. Yet, I don't know. Lynching him wou8ld seem like a big risk to me, simply because his day 2 scum-reads don't match with his day 1 inactivity.

Chandani seems to be.. I don't know.. coasting(?) through the game. I would still definitely consider a vote on here.

Oh, something I thought earlier - if we haven't had any claims to that degree, I assume we don't have a cop? If we do - you need to claim your result from last night now. Actually, no.
That's me mixing up two assumptions. If we mislynch today, we will say "ahh, we shoulda got a cop claim". If we don't mislynch, the cop will be killed tonight and we'll lose that power. The second part is assuming that we don't have a doctor.

Jesus, this is confusing.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby webby » Tue Jun 14, 2011 11:27 pm UTC

roband wrote:webby - I'm a little disappointed that you didn't look into your own links with other players, even a cursory glance, just to show that you accept that you're not guaranteed town to anyone else.


I know this, but I thought it was accepted practice not to analyse yourself? I'm obviously not going to be able to be objective, so I think it's best left to someone else.

And hmm, I actually went back and looked over it again and I realised that I'd missed that jayhsu put Ibarra as more scummy than Chandani in his analysis post before everyone voted. So in some sense, Chandani was unlikely to get lynched even when roband tied the vote (because jayhsu was going to make it 3-2 and Chandani could hammer if necessary). It would have been extremely clever (and slightly risky) distancing if it was, but I'm not going to completely rule it out. Still 95% sure one of jayhsu and Robot_Raptor are scum.

Maybe I'll have more of an idea when I get a chance to do player analysis.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby roband » Wed Jun 15, 2011 9:45 am UTC

Still not feeling too good, so no heavy analysis.

My top two scum teams right now are Chandani/RR and jay/RR.

If RR isn't scum.. well.. I don't know.

I'm close to a vote here.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby webby » Wed Jun 15, 2011 1:07 pm UTC

I think I'm convincing myself that the scumteam is jayhsu + roband. I've seen the new/poor scummy-acting player lynched far too often here and turn out to be town. It feels like roband and jayhsu are both pushing for the easy lynch, when I don't think Robot_Raptor's play has been scummy, even though it's certainly not been helpful to town. It also seems like they've been looking to distance from each other, without actually looking like putting a vote on (see for example roband's last post).

So they're my current feelings - I want to hear what Chandani and Robot_Raptor think of this, then I might do another proper analysis post.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby webby » Wed Jun 15, 2011 1:13 pm UTC

EBWOP - not so much roband's last post, temporarily forgot there were so few players in the game so he's actually saying jayhsu is the average scumminess of the players left. Not sure whether that helps his cause or not. :P I'll show the examples when I do my full analysis, I've been a little bit busy recently.

That's what I get for posting when tired though, I'll see if I can get my thoughts properly together in the morning.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby roband » Wed Jun 15, 2011 1:49 pm UTC

webby, being completely objective, I would say that I've treated you and jay about the same.

I had problems with both of you on D1, which were resolved. You both seem much more townie to me than the other two, but when paranoia mode kicks in, both of you are votable.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby jayhsu » Wed Jun 15, 2011 2:40 pm UTC

webby wrote:when I don't think Robot_Raptor's play has been scummy, even though it's certainly not been helpful to town.

As there are no other factions than Scum and Town, anything not helpful to town is antitown, no?

I am very uncomfortable with the recent silence from both Chandani and RR. However, Roband's recent posts have pinged me as very suspicious and dodgy - and it confirms his place as underneath RR for second scum in my mind. In the end, however, RR's antagonism and overall blase disregard for the game is the worst offender - keeping quiet just does not help town, and I think it's just a clever play on his part.

Vote: Robot_Raptor

We cannot end this day in a no-lynch, and we must be perfect in our choice of scum. I'm not taking any chances.
-Jay

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby roband » Wed Jun 15, 2011 3:05 pm UTC

What exactly about my posts has pinged you? I see you very quick to say these things, but not so fast to say exactly what you find suspicious...

If Chandani was posting more, you'd be climbing your way up that scum ladder right now. As it is, I suspect that you're just in the same paranoia mode I mentioned before.

Today's lynch is important. It's more than vital. It's essential we get it right.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby Chandani » Wed Jun 15, 2011 4:22 pm UTC

Sorry about lack of posting: yesterday was busy, and today is going to be busy.
I'll attempt a post later on... if I have time. If not, well, I know I can do one tomorrow, but that's cutting it a bit close.

Quick read seems to be consensus on jayhsu being at least one of the scum members... which is something I would agree with. The rest I'll address later.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby Chandani » Thu Jun 16, 2011 12:23 am UTC

So... time for post!

First of all... was this ever answered?
jayhsu wrote:-@WebbyNinja: Interesting analysis. I would point out that your own points seem to refute a possibility that both RR and I are scum, as I think I have been fairly hard on him throughout the game - something you have taken into account for other players.
Because I didn't see it in any posts.

@webby: Not really sure how roband is pushing for a R_R lynch, though I can see it with jay (and this is before the vote as well). I'm not very good with distancing recognition, but I don't see much. I can see how saying one is close to a vote is iffy. If it was after jay's vote, I could see it, since it would be really easy for scum to hammer, though it could be that roband is being extra cautious, which fits what he has been saying lately. I also don't get your EBWOP, so if that changes the meaning, eh.

Jay's reasoning on R_R is... well. Well. I would be 'yeah, that makes sense', but he IS new. And so it's possible that he hasn't figured it out yet. I'm pretty sure it's not a clever ploy: it's very possible that he's scum who is acting like a fail newb, but it could be the other as well. I really don't like the reasoning behind that post at all.
In addition... jay didn't explain his pings, either. This is not helping jay's case.

So, at the end, I'm even more willing to vote for jay than before, and not so willing to vote for R_R. Since people want some analyses of webby connections (forming possible scum teams), I can do it, though the one between me and webby will be pretty brief. I'm putting it in another post because I don't want to make this post too big, and since I might be leaving soon.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby Chandani » Thu Jun 16, 2011 12:31 am UTC

A look at webby:

Webby-R_R: Asks R_R to post more, R_R does, but explains is natural lurker, and webby replies with an explanation about what town should act like and so on. Later says that can't get anything out of R_R's posts. Explains what is wrong with assuming we lynch at random (to R_R). Explains why NL idea explained today is bad.
Seems to be pretty helpful to R_R by explaining the ropes and stuff. It's not necessarily scummy, for webby could be a good soul OR it could be scum buddy helping scum buddy. Not really sure at this point (paranoia's kicking in) though I would like to think that webby is being a good townie.

And that's all I have time for: sorry about that. Will attempt a post in a few hours.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby Robot_Raptor » Thu Jun 16, 2011 12:48 am UTC

Right, sorry I didn't say anything yesterday, it's been a long week and a half for me.

Anyway, right into it.

roband wrote:My thoughts on RRs content above are basically that it's all rubbish. The 'strategy' that referred to the rest of us as morons isn't going to go down to well, especially as it equated to 'sit back and do nothing'. Nice work

+

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby webby » Thu Jun 16, 2011 1:41 am UTC

Chandani wrote:First of all... was this ever answered?
jayhsu wrote:-@WebbyNinja: Interesting analysis. I would point out that your own points seem to refute a possibility that both RR and I are scum, as I think I have been fairly hard on him throughout the game - something you have taken into account for other players.
Because I didn't see it in any posts.


I agree that they're unlikely to both be scum - I guess I just put '(or both)' in for completeness without really thinking.

@webby: Not really sure how roband is pushing for a R_R lynch, though I can see it with jay (and this is before the vote as well). I'm not very good with distancing recognition, but I don't see much. I can see how saying one is close to a vote is iffy. If it was after jay's vote, I could see it, since it would be really easy for scum to hammer, though it could be that roband is being extra cautious, which fits what he has been saying lately. I also don't get your EBWOP, so if that changes the meaning, eh.


See roband's post before my last one - I'd posted saying I thought one of jayhsu and Robot_Raptor has to be scum. Roband then says 'If RR isn't scum...' and says that he's close to a vote. That pings me because it looks like he's trying to move the vote away from jayhsu. He did exactly the same thing day 1 when GoP expressed his suspicions of jayhsu. Note that this only seems to happen when jayhsu looks in danger of getting lynched, he didn't do it with Ibarra/Chandani. This is despite the fact that he supposedly felt that jayhsu was the second-most suspicious (that's the distancing part).

I'm going to go back and try to look at all the posts in which they've mentioned/discussed each other.
Spoiler:
http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=71713#p2641673 - roband was never going to get lynched for that, so possible distancing, but possible town trying to start off discussion.
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=71713#p2641742 - Justification of not answering.
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=71713#p2643304 - Says it seemed dodgy, slightly suspicious but wouldn't vote roband on the basis of it. Neutral at the time, but there are plenty more 'he's being suspicious but I wouldn't vote for him' posts to come.
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=71713#p2644469 - roband has no hard feelings at jay, thinks it's justified at early game
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=71713&start=40#p2645582 - roband Says GoP has a good point about jayhsu, but then that he would consider voting Robot_Raptor. Slightly suspicious because GoP was a reasonably trusted townie at the time, and with not much to go on day 1, this could easily have seen a bandwagon forming on jayhsu.
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=71713&start=40#p2645582 - jayhsu puts roband as neutral. Says that he's been lurky but that only real strike is the question thing.
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=71713&start=40#p2646029 - roband claims he hasn't been lurky and jayhsu backs down and agrees.
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=71713&start=40#p2647729 - roband votes Chandani, saying that she's the only one left he has issues with. He seems to have just posted 'GoP has a good point' about jayhsu, then never mentioned it again.
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=71713&start=80#p2649604 - roband says jay is neutral. See Sheriff of Nottingham for an example of how scum tend to say each other are neutral. It's significant here because most others seem to have had reasonably strong opinions of one or both of them.
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=71713&start=80#p2650998 - jayhsu has nothing new on roband, puts him second on his scumminess list.
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=71713&start=80#p2651071 - roband disappointed to be above Chandani, but sees reasoning.
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=71713&start=80#p2652421 - roband claims to have treated me and jay about the same. I don't quite see that, I want more justification of this.


So the two main things here are:
1. Whenever jayhsu looks like getting lynched, roband starts attacking Robot_Raptor. Compare that to Ibarra getting a vote on him, which roband responds to by unvoting Robot_Raptor, but then voting for Chandani, not Ibarra.
2. There's a whole lot of 'this is suspicious/I don't like it, but I understand it...' - ie distancing without ever looking to throw suspicion on them.

I'm almost completely convinced now that one of jayhsu and Robot_Raptor has to be scum, else I think the game would be over by now (Chandani and roband could have hammered by now). I also think it's become clear that we have two groups - roband and jayhsu want to lynch Robot_Raptor, Chandani wants to lynch jayhsu, so unless there's bussing going on, which I won't rule out, but I don't think it's very likely at 3-2, I can narrow my probable scumteams down to jayhsu-roband and Chandani-Robot_Raptor.That's actually pretty nice, because I think if we get the lynch right today, we'll get it right tomorrow as well. Obviously that only works from my perspective, but I'm sure you guys can do similar for yourselves.

I think that I'm going to vote for jayhsu after giving everyone some time to post - I'll give you a chance to change my mind.

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby Robot_Raptor » Thu Jun 16, 2011 2:13 am UTC

EBWOP - Damnit -_- hit submit instead of preview again

(cont...)

Firstly,
webby wrote:Your analysis of why no lynch would be better stopped at day 2.
is completely correct.

Part of why i thought a no-lynch the first day was preferable, was that I thought 4 town + 2 scum wouldn't mean that 1 misvote by non-scum would result in a ... whatever it's called when scum push the vote over the edge and win. (If that was the case we would have had a 50% chance of getting an extra day of play out of the deal, and given the amount you lot chat, that's preferable.) Clearly, I was wrong, 3 votes for a single person in a 6 person would trigger an instant lynch, and th next day would leave you with 2-2, a scum win.

Sorry about that. Even so, i'm going to continue to be pompous ass, mostly because it amuses me. :P

---

(Disclaimer: the analysis that follows was thought of over the course of the past two days, when I wasn't reading the thread, so It should avoid hindsight bias. Not that you will believe me)

So, we have 3 town, and 2 scum, assuming random lynch and NK we have a 7% chance of having both a cop and a doctor, 32% chance of a cop, 27% chance of having a doctor, and a 47% chance of having neither.

Frankly, it doesn't really matter, doctor's probably not going save anyone, and the cop is useless because of false claims, and the low probability of finding a scum.

Now, we'll end the day with either a 2-2 scum win, or a 2-1 (after NK) start for the next day. I'm going to just do a standard tactical analysis until the options reduce to either "use your gut" or I get bored.

First order town strategy: Vote correctly.

First order mafia strategy: If you're mafia, and a single town votes for a non-town, you both can vote for the same character and trigger an instant lynch and win the game. You want to wait till a misvote before jumping in, and finishing the game.

Second order town strategy: Push the vote as late as possible to gather more information, and prevent an incorrect non-town instant lynch, thereby increasing your chances of voting correctly. Since scum will probably be waiting till the first misvote, if there's a vote you can assume that there's a town making it, and then, if you wait a while, and the game hasn't ended yet (by virtue of the scum pulling an instant lynch), you can further assume that the party the vote is against is a scum. There fore, if there's a vote, you want to wait till close to the end of the day, and vote for that same person.

Second order mafia: Since town will probably assume that the first person to vote is town, it'd be prudent to coordinate a single vote against a suspicious townie, and then wait for a town placed second vote against the same, and swoop in for the kill.

.. ok i'm bored now ...

From random thinking about it over the course of a day:

optimal mafia strategy is poison the well against a single suspicious player, voting if need be to push the whole thing against them, that said, two votes against the same person, without a quick instant lynch would be tipping your hand, as either those votes are both against a scum, or both the voters are scum.

Optimal town strategy is to wait as long as possible, and see if anyone in particular is implementing optimal mafia strategy.

---

That's about it for now, i haven't really bothered to read your posts, since i'm horrible judge of people anyway, i think i'll try tomorrow to do a post by post analysis or something, but i also might not, since in addition to not really caring what you lot think, i'm also lazy.

P.S. So far the game's been fun ^_^ thanks, watching the chaos is always a wonderful pass time.
Spoiler:
Image

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Re: [m] The Sailors of Sea Nine! ~ D2: T'Davy Jones With 'em

Postby roband » Thu Jun 16, 2011 2:31 am UTC

RR - you talk a lot of crap. You've posted a lot of content but said next to nothing which isn't already assumed (by myself, at least).

webby - you're using the word 'attack' again. At no point in this game have I said I was not willing to vote for jay. I have consistently attempted to get RR to post more content, which is why I have applied pressure to him. This is not related to any other content or votes or actions from any players other than RR. When I voted regarding the lynch on D1, it was because it was clear that no-one else wanted RR lynched at that point (which I still think is goddamn ridiculous - Chandani is still seemingly using the "oh but he's new, be nice" defence - which can only fly for so long, when a game has only 7 players and will last 3 game days max, that shit doesn't fly) and I wanted my opinion to be counted towards a possible lynch.

It's 3am, I've had a few beers and I'm tired, but I feared I would forget this in the morning.

Chandani - you're still saying you'll post in X hours, then arriving, making a very small amount of analysis, then making an excuse about having no more time. Whether it's true or not, this looks scummy to me.


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