THE LYDHAMPSTEAD MYSTERY It's never just one murder...
How to play
Spoiler:
(Stolen from various newbie games, original version written by Vox)
Mafia, also known as Werewolf (to awesome people), is a game originating in real life, but adapted for a forum setting. Basically, you have a small group of innocent people, but hidden among them is a group of nasty mafiosos, whose sole goal is to have at least 50% of the population belong to their organization so that they can control the lynch-votes. Since they cannot recruit people, the only way to achieve this is bloody murder, but not more than one per night. The rest of the town uses their deductive abilities, along with some special roles, to find these infiltrators and lynch them.
Lynch Voting (“Day”) This is a lawless place, and the only form of justice is the old-fashioned lynch mob. Every "day" (the game takes place in alternating phases of day and night), the town chooses a member to hang with a simple majority vote. For the more peaceful towns, "no lynch" is also a valid vote. After the mob has strung up the citizen, his body will be investigated overnight and it will be announced if the town hanged a member of the Mafia or an innocent townie the next morning. There are no "takebacks", once a majority vote has been reached, even for one minute, the "day" is over and the “night” begins.
You must bold your vote and place it on a separate line (in other words, it is not my fault if I miss it and therefore do not count it in the official tally if it doesn’t follow that format).
Example: I think Vox Imperatoris is dirty Mafia scum because he said he was the cop, then later said he was the doctor.
Vote: Vox Imperatoris I changed my mind now, it's definitely MichaelandJimi because he said he wasn't playing but he is, he's a dirty liar!
Unvote Vote: MichaelandJimi
Night—when everything else happens: People who are not just regular Townies (that will be about half of you), have special powers that are used at night. The most important of these is that of the Mafia, but there are also other roles that the town has such as cops, doctors, etc. that have night actions.
The roles that exist in this game are spelled out in the next section.
Mafia: The mafia can confer through PM (private messages) at night only (this part requires the honor code, so please don't ruin the game) about whom they plan to kill; when they reach a unanimous decision, they will PM it to me and I will record it secretly. You also have the benefit of knowing who the other mafia members are - but you should try to avoid letting this information slip in the main thread, for obvious reasons. If you receive the role of a Mafia member, you must try especially hard to blend in with the others and subtly place the blame elsewhere. Too little, and the lynch mob will eventually find you; try to take control of it on the first day, and the mob will start to wonder why the Mafia hasn't killed you.
Town: The town cannot PM each other (at least in this version of the game). The town also don’t know who the other town members are. There are a few “power roles” in the town (ie the Cop), with special powers that are helpful to town. These roles are detailed below in the Role PMs section.
As Town your main job is to find scum and lynch them. You do not have to survive to win, just so long as all the Mafiaballs are dead before all the townies are. (Note that if the scum at any point reach greater or equal numbers with town, this is a scum win). Finding scum can be very hard to do, but analysis is your friend. If you’re not sure what to do, reading some of the other games that have been played on this forum can be helpful, as can several wiki’s on the web (including this one).
Good luck!
The Setup
This is a completely open game, with the following setup:
Town: 1 x Detective [Cop] 1 x Journalist [Tracker] 1 x Photographer [Watcher] 4 x Villagers [Vanilla Town]
Scum: 1 x Mastermind [Scum Roleblocker] 1 x Accomplice [Vanilla Scum]
Role PMs:
Spoiler:
Detective wrote:You are the Detective [Cop]
You were sent to Lydhampstead to investigate the death of a local figure, Captain Easterbrook. However, now you find yourself trapped in the village with two killers on the loose: you've no choice but to help the villagers lynch the murderers. That said, you are still a detective... perhaps your investigations will reveal who's behind all this?
Each night, PM me with the name of another player. I will then tell you whether that player is suspicious (scum) or not suspicious (town).
You win if both the Mastermind and the Accomplice are lynched. Good luck!
Journalist wrote:You are the Journalist [Tracker]
What a scoop! Your paper sends you off to investigate the murder of some daft old man, when suddenly the locals start dropping like flies! This is all going to make for a fantastic article, assuming you survive of course. And to survive, it looks like you'd better help the villagers catch these murderers. Who knows, maybe your unique brand of investigative journalism might help catch the killers?
Each night, PM me with the name of another player. I will then tell you whether that player targeted another player that night.
You win if both the Mastermind and the Accomplice are lynched. Good luck!
Photographer wrote:You are the Photographer [Watcher]
Photography has always been a hobby of yours. And now with the latest string of deaths, people are suddenly interested in your photographs! That said, your immediate concern right now is that there are killers on the loose in Lydhampstead... but maybe your hobby can help the investigation? You might catch the killers red-handed, after all!
Each night, PM me with the name of another player. I will then tell you whether that player was targeted by another player that night.
You win if both the Mastermind and the Accomplice are lynched. Good luck!
Villager wrote:You are a Villager [Vanilla Town]
Nothing ever normally happens in Lydhampstead. But ever since Captain Easterbrook suddenly died, people in the villager have been on edge... and now it seems there's killers on the loose! This being Dartmoor, you prefer old style justice, complete with flaming torches and pitchforks - you have to catch these murderers, no matter what!
You are a vanilla town role, with no special powers.
You win if both the Mastermind and the Accomplice are lynched. Good luck!
Mastermind wrote:You are the Mastermind [Scum Roleblocker]
Blast, things weren't supposed to go like this! Everyone was prepared to write off Easterbrook's death as an unexplained mystery, then suddenly this inspector turns up and starts sticking his nose in. And to make things worse, all this snow means your stuck in this dump of a village, with an angry lynch mob hunting you down! No matter... your plans may be in pieces, but you can always fight fire with fire - even if that means killing everyone else...
Each night you may communicate with X, your accomplice, via PM (please CC me in all PMs). Once you have discussed it with your accomplice, send me the name of a player to kill, and tell me whether you or your accomplice should carry out the kill action. Regardless of who carries out the kill, you may also personally target a player to roleblock each night - the targeted player will be unable to use their power that night, if they have one.
You win if all town players are killed, or if there is no way to prevent this from happening. Good luck!
Accomplice wrote:You are the Accomplice [Vanilla Scum]
You'd do anything for those you care about. Even if that means being an accomplice to murder. With the two of you stuck in the village, and a lynch mob hot on your tail, you're going to be needed more than ever now... even if that means having to commit murder yourself...
You are the Accomplice. Each night you may communicate with X, the mastermind behind these murders, via PM (please CC me in all PMs). The mastermind will then decide each night who should be killed, and whether you or they should carry out the killing.
You win if all town players are killed, or if there is no way to prevent this from happening. Good luck!
Rules & Additional Info 1. You may only talk about this game in this thread and in an appropriately named spoiler in the Discussion Thread. If you are not playing this game, you may not post in this thread. 2. You may not play to lose. This will be dealt with at the mod's discretion (expect an immediate modkill if you play against your faction). 3. Do not lurk. If you no longer want to or can't play, ask the mod as soon as possible for a replacement. If there are no replacements, you must keep playing until a replacement arrives or the mod decides to modkill you. 4. You may not edit your posts. 5. You may not post your role PM, or quote verbatim from it. You may paraphrase. 6. Votes and questions must be posted in
bold, on a newline.
You may also ask questions to the mod in PM. 7. You may not post game content in this thread after you are dead. (You may post death flavor.) If you are lynched, you are dead when the hammer is cast. Else, you are dead when the mod says so. 8. You may not post game content at night. It is night when hammer is cast or when the aforementioned deadline is reached. 9. The mod's decisions are final.
If the photographer targets a player who recieves multiple visitors, they will only be told that one person visited their target - this person will be randomly selected. Similarly, if the journalist targets the mastermind on a night when the mastermind is both killing and roleblocking, it is random whether they are told the kill target or the roleblock target.
If no player recieves a majority of votes before the deadline, then the player with the most votes is lynched. If two players are tied for the most votes, there is no lynch.
Finally, you are free to continue posting after a deadline has passed up until the point I declare the day to be over. If a player recieves a majority of votes during this time however, then consider the day automatically over.
The police have given up the investigation into the mysterious death of Captain Easterbrook, the Daily Wire can exclusively reveal. The Captain, who had retired some years ago after a distinguished career in the British Expeditionary Force, was found dead last week in his Dartmoor home of Lydhampstead Manor, his body being found by his close friend and confidante, Dr Misnomer. The Captain appeared to have suffered a heart attack, yet he apparently had no history of heart trouble and was in excellent health for his age.
According to those who knew him, the Captain had for some time been living in fear of his life, and had apparently convinced himself that he was being tormented by ghosts. The police have unsurprisingly dismissed any supernatural connection as nonsense, yet their own investigations have failed to turn up any leads. Now it appears that the Devon County Constabulary is preparing to write off the death as unexplained, and is pulling its officers onto other cases.
In the village of Lydhampstead itself, however, speculation remains rampant as to the exact cause of Captain Easterbrook’s demise, with reports abound of a mysterious woman in red having arrived only the day before…
Putting the newspaper to one side, Inspector Holberton sighed inwardly. If there was one thing that never ceased to amaze him, it was the sheer brazenness with which the press spiced up their stories. A ‘mysterious woman in red’? Not likely round these parts, he thought. Still, he had to hand it to them: the Wire had been quick off the mark in this case. Judging from the detail in the report, they already had a journalist in the village, and a photographer as well (although judging from the quality of the accompanying photographs, most likely not a professional one).
It was, of course, not at all the case that the police had abandoned the investigation: they had simply altered their approach. As was so often the case with these rural affairs, the minute the locals had caught sight of a police uniform, they had fallen silent. Everybody had given away as little information as they could get away with, lest the taint of investigation earn them the suspicion of others. As such, the decision had been taken to send Holberton into the village not in an official capacity, but under an assumed name. He would be there not to carry out formal investigations, but to absorb the local gossip. Then, once he’d got a good feel for the area, he could begin the investigation proper.
With a groan and a shudder, the train stopped at Lydhampstead Halt. It was not much of a station, the inspector thought, more a pile of bricks that just happened to be placed next to the railway track. Holberton stepped off the train onto the deserted platform and then, pulling his coat tightly around him, slowly made his way up the path towards the village. It was getting late, and the snow was getting heavy: the inspector decided he would just head straight for the inn tonight, and leave the investigating until tomorrow. It would probably be too late to call upon his contact, Dr Misnomer, now anyway. He could save his questions for the morning.
Lost in his thoughts, the inspector had failed to notice the figure watching him from a nearby field. As the inspector turned the corner and disappeared from his sight, Dr Misnomer made up his mind. He would meet them after all tonight, and make clear his demands. Then, if they refused to pay, he would tell everything to the inspector tomorrow. Either way, he was sure that things would out fine for him.
The death of Lady Diana was also predicted by Moby Dick. __________________________________________________ It's hard being cool. __________________________________________________ You, will never ever ever, get this annoying song out of your head.
‘…and so you see, I am in a rather difficult position…’ Dr Misnomer was explaining, ‘At your request, I withheld certain information about Easterbrook’s medical condition from the initial investigation. Now it seems that the police are not dropping the case, things could get quite difficult, and it might require further effort on my par-’ ‘You mean,’ the other figure interrupted coldly, ‘that you want more money, or you’ll blub to the police.’ Misnomer didn’t dare reply. Suddenly, he felt very much out of his depth. Nobody knew he had invited this person round tonight. If anything were to happen… nobody would be there to help him… The other figure had his back turned to Misnomer, and seemed to be staring intently at the collection of ornaments on the mantle piece. Picking up a stone fishing trophy Misnomer had won many years back, they paused for a moment. Then, they suddenly turned and spoke. ‘Fine. We’ll pay you what you want.’ Misnomer sighed with relief. He’d been right after all – he had nothing to worry about. Whoever these people were, they weren’t really that threatening. ‘Thank you very much,’ he mumbled, ‘this certainly makes things a lot easier.’ ‘I trust, of course, that you won’t be saying anything to your inspector friend then?’ ‘Don’t worry,’ Misnomer smiled, ‘I will be as silent as the grave.’ ‘Yes… that’s rather what we were hoping for’. With a sickening crunch, the other figure struck the doctor on head with the ornament they had so casually picked up just a few seconds ago. Misnomer fell to the ground, as his assailant struck again, and then a third time. Confident that their work was done, the attacker left, casually throwing the trophy into the snow beside them. By the time Dr Misnomer was found, he had already been dead for some time…
‘What do you mean, there’s no way to leave?’ ‘Look, when it snows this heavy, there ain’t going to be no trains running an’ all the roads are going to be blocked for miles.’ ‘But you don’t understand, I have to get back. I’m-’ Inspector Holberton bit his lip. Even with his contact dead, he didn’t want to reveal his identity just yet. ‘But what about the murder? Surely we need to contact the police?’ ‘Oh we don’t bother with the police round here. Never get anything done, that lot. No, we’ll catch them killers ourselves, and see they get what’s coming to em too!’ Holberton was stunned. Surely they weren’t seriously suggesting a lynch mob?
They were.
It is now Day 1. 9 players, so 5 needed to lynch.
Soft deadline set for 6pm BST, Wednesday 20th July.
Fine morning, chaps and chapettes. Shame 'bout all the snow, eh?
So...kicking the game off, hrm...whaddaya wanna talk about? I don't suppose anyone's gonna come forward and admit they killed poor old Easterton and Dr. Misnomer, are they? So I suppose we're going to have to do things the old-fashioned way...
Does anyone think the Random Questioning Stage would be high-value here? Or should we just mill around uselessly, or does someone have a better idea (I'd vigorously embrace such)?
It's certainly to be hoped that we'll get to the bottom of all this; Easterton was a fine fellow (I'm sure) and he didn't deserve this (probably), so let's make sure those responsible pay!
existential_elevator wrote:It's like a jigsaw puzzle of Hitler pissing on Mother Theresa. No individual piece is offensive, but together...
If you think hot women have it easy because everyone wants to have sex at them, you're both wrong and also the reason you're wrong.
The brutality of the murder of the Dr does not match that of the death of Captain Easterbrook. If it weren't an open game, I'd almost think that the kills were done by two different groups. As it is, we've got two scum, and open format, along with flavor written in such a way to completely contradict me...
I'm grasping at straws for things to discuss here, but soon we should have enough activity to generate some decent discussion.
Whatever it is that we do, the brutality must stop! NOW! any more of these mysterious killings and I'ma think of gettin outta here. My dearest wife! she'll be thinking I'm a coward. Never! Forget I'd be saying that. This is our town and nobody's gonna scare we out. So I'd be thinking of a couple'o questions we'd be doing well'o answering.
1. If those policemen came to you, started asking this whole lot'o questions. Promised to help you catch them killers, and you'd be in possessing plenty'o evidence for it. D'ya reckon you'd be able to trust them, not to frame you as the darn killer?
2. What be your favorite way of lynching those gosh-darned murderers?
It be only right, me answering those now.
1. NEVER! Don't you forget Mrs. McGinty! Good old lady she was. Never able to break the simplest of them laws, only wanting to help catch the killer of her husband. She'd be still with us now, if them cells she was put on weren't too much for her! I be telling you this. Policemen are as bad as them.
2. Ahh, some good ol' rakes and axes be my favorite. Chop'm'up a willy bit, and rake'm up. Always found such image an amusing one.
Hoping it's not a post restriction - faked or not - because reading that is annoying.
Erm, I'm a little burned out after a long week, I suspect I'm not the person to get this game moving in the direction it needs.
The death of Lady Diana was also predicted by Moby Dick. __________________________________________________ It's hard being cool. __________________________________________________ You, will never ever ever, get this annoying song out of your head.
One thing I've been toying with is that since we have so many investigative roles, we might be able to gain a bit more useful information than otherwise if the investigators coordinated their ability usage and/or claimed D2. I'm not sure this is actually a good idea (partially because I think trying to mess with game mechanics like this is kind of a boring way to go about playing mafia, and partially because it'd require town to choose cop targets publicly, which means the mafia get a say), but I think it might be worth discussion.
b.i.o. - I've got what I think is a better idea, though they're not totally incompatible.
I propose the following:
At the start of every day (besides D1, obviously), EVERY player in the game makes claims of the following format in their first post of the day (or close to it, if they forget):
-If I was a power role, during the night I targeted {player}. ---If I was the cop, {player} was {scum/town}. ---If I was the tracker, {player} visited {player2/nobody}. ---If I was the watcher, {player} was visited by {player3/nobody}.
We then proceed to *entirely ignore* all such claims, until someone actually claims a role (at which point the relevant claims get scrutiny) or deathflips as a power role (at which point the relevant claims are confirmed).
PROS: -Allows power roles to breadcrumb openly -Prevents scum falseclaims on later days from modifying their list of "who I targeted previous days" in an attempt to keep their story consistent -Potentially scares scum off from killing a player who got something compromising on them (as a deathflip 100% confirms, while a claim can be contested), keeping power roles alive longer
CONS: -Due to human psychology, the claims might influence our thinking/get debated ad nauseam before they're actually relevant, even though we know they don't matter unless confirming a claim or looking for inconsistencies in a scum falseclaim; for this reason, I suggest putting the claims into a spoiler in this thread, so they're easier to skip over until relevant -If for some reason every player in the game claims the same thing except for the real power role, it doesn't work, but this is more a "don't be dumb" thing -It's kinda lame
Any other thoughts?
I will say I don't like the idea of trying to publicly coordinate ability usage, at least as a general plan; in the future it might become useful, but N1 it seems like it wouldn't have any real benefit, might out power roles if the coordination isn't done carefully (if trying to set up a chain, in particular), and a "scattergun" approach can be too easily influenced by scum.
existential_elevator wrote:It's like a jigsaw puzzle of Hitler pissing on Mother Theresa. No individual piece is offensive, but together...
If you think hot women have it easy because everyone wants to have sex at them, you're both wrong and also the reason you're wrong.
I like the plan Cheez, but I agree that it does seem a bit lame. Be that as it may, it's likely to be a strong enough strategy that it might be worth doing despite the lameness.
Normally I'm the advocate for public claims at the start, but it's been so long since I've played that I've forgotten. We'll see just how rusty I am.
The first problem I see with that plan is that it doesn't allow for power roles to say whether they were roleblocked (probably just forgetting to include that in your list of examples) and also it would limit the targets that scum would want to roleblock/NK. (Though the fact that they would have to report 3 items incorrectly, two of which scum probably wouldn't know, the target scum really want to rb/kill is the ordinary cop)
The other problem is that I don't see how useful revealing watcher or tracker information is. The only time I can see it catching scum is if the target was seen visited by someone by the watcher and then they die and the tracker tracking someone who visited the dead which is I think rare enough that we wouldn't gain any useful information in those being confirmed after the power role's deaths. I think it would be a much better idea to claim this information if it did catch out scum; scum can't really afford to be false claiming too much when there are only two of them in a three cop game.
weiyaoli: Yeah, I just forgot to include "roleblocked" as one of the possible results, which would be simple enough. That could throw a little more of a wrench in the works, though, depending on whether vanilla townies are told they're roleblocked after being so, and the bit of wine involved in claiming being roleblocked...look at me, I'm already getting into "analyzing the results before they're relevant" mode
I don't really see how it would limit the targets scum would want to roleblock/NK? I mean, they wouldn't want to kill someone who'd claimed to have copped then as scum and confirm the claim if said person really was, but this seems like it'd be either a neutral or positive effect on net.
Revealing watcher/tracker information: I think your point is that if obviously-scum-catching information is gathered, it should be straight-up claimed rather than breadcrumbed? I can see some merit to that; it'll get them roleblocked or killed the next night, but having only one scum left vs. losing a power/power role seems like a pretty good trade (the same applies for a cop Scum result).
HOWEVER, this can also be used to confirm townies to a certain extent, or to back up claims later; I don't think it's safe to assume that scum will be too scared to falseclaim, and having the information around (even if they don't catch scum before dying) could be greatly useful later on.
existential_elevator wrote:It's like a jigsaw puzzle of Hitler pissing on Mother Theresa. No individual piece is offensive, but together...
If you think hot women have it easy because everyone wants to have sex at them, you're both wrong and also the reason you're wrong.
Ah. That'd be a pretty critical flaw in my plan, then; it'd either allow scum to explicitly know whether the person they roleblocked is a power role, or power roles would have to make up fake information if roleblocked, which defeats the entire purpose.
Scrap that idea; good call on that question, weiyaoli.
existential_elevator wrote:It's like a jigsaw puzzle of Hitler pissing on Mother Theresa. No individual piece is offensive, but together...
If you think hot women have it easy because everyone wants to have sex at them, you're both wrong and also the reason you're wrong.
I'm glad I didn't have to point it out, but I can see at least 2 other problems with that plan. No use in discussing them now I guess. I'm all up for plans though. I don't think they take away any of the fun, on the contrary, they add to it. This is not only a game of catching lies, it is also of logic. However... I can't think of anything at the moment. It is important to consider if making plans, is that they don't generate as much content imo as everyone playing, so we'd just have to be careful on that.
Lorenz, such plans are often actually pretty useful for generating content day 1 - we don't really have anything to go on initially, so if we can see how people respond to ideas, and how their logic is, that's better than nothing.
It feels like a mass claim works in this game: Scum obviously claim villagers. We have six claimed villagers, two of which are scum, and we have three lynches. We get one useful tracker result before they're killed. Ignoring the tracker, chances of hitting at least one scum before we lose:
1 - 4/6*3/5*2/4 = 4/5
So we have an 80% chance of getting to 2-1 or better even without any cop results and with random lynches.
I don't like it, because it would sort of ruin the game, but I think having four confirmed townies is more useful than the potential for cop/tracker/watcher results.
Three confirmed townies, you mean, webby? I mean, I guess it'd make this game a bit more vanilla if all power roles were essentially removed from the equation D1, but...As you say, we'd get three lynches. Four if we hit a scum during those. However, it's to be assumed that scum would be killing only power roles during those days - wouldn't it then be better to do a massclaim later, after they've potentially killed off some arbitrary villagers and improved our odds? I don't think the lynch is likely to hit a power role, due to the potential for claiming - and if there's a counterclaim, that gives us a 50/50 chance to hit scum with that lynch, which is much better.
Don't think your plan helps us.
existential_elevator wrote:It's like a jigsaw puzzle of Hitler pissing on Mother Theresa. No individual piece is offensive, but together...
If you think hot women have it easy because everyone wants to have sex at them, you're both wrong and also the reason you're wrong.
The problem with claiming when a person is about to get lynched is that it looks like they are just making things up to get out of dying. If someone is going to claim, it should be when people agree that they should.
Azrael001 wrote:The problem with claiming when a person is about to get lynched is that it looks like they are just making things up to get out of dying. If someone is going to claim, it should be when people agree that they should.
Yes, but if they claim a power role and nobody counterclaims, we know they're town. If we do get a counterclaim, then we know we get one scum from two lynches, which is a good deal for us early in the game.
DBC wrote:t's to be assumed that scum would be killing only power roles during those days
If scum kills townies, wouldn't that simply help us?
webby wrote:I see your point I guess, claiming definitely makes sense tomorrow if it's a villager who gets nightkilled tonight, but it's less certain right now.
I still think mass-claiming now is more profitable than tomorrow. Am I just missing something obvious? Seems like power roles pretty much have to claim town if today, and that they can claim whatever they want if we wait for tomorrow.
If we massclaim today, there are 4 villagers and 3 power roles. They claim truthfully. If scum both claim villager as well, we have to pick 2 scum out of 6 claimed villagers and the scum also know who the power roles are (roleblocking one and killing another) leaving us with only one investigation result.
If we massclaim tomorrow, assuming worst case that we lynched a villager (since a power role would claim) and they killed a power role. Town claims truthfully. (3 villagers, 2 power roles) Scum claim villagers. We have to pick 2 scum out of 5 claimed villagers, then scum can block/kill both cops.
So no I do not agree with a massclaim at all tomorrow (unless we lynched both a villager and the scum killed a villager so we would still have three useful cop results, then I might consider it) and I don't see the use of a massclaim today either purely because although there is a high chance of hitting one scum during the next few lynches, it essentially makes useless the power roles D1 when the fact that we have three cops in this game is highly useful/unusual and we should be trying to keep them alive for a sure win instead of a high chance of lynching one scum.
Going back to DBC's strategy, I think if we all played smartly, claiming the cop results could work. (more for the town cops since they should always claim if they get scum)
weiyaoli wrote: So no I do not agree with a massclaim at all tomorrow (unless we lynched both a villager and the scum killed a villager so we would still have three useful cop results, then I might consider it) and I don't see the use of a massclaim today either purely because although there is a high chance of hitting one scum during the next few lynches, it essentially makes useless the power roles D1 when the fact that we have three cops in this game is highly useful/unusual and we should be trying to keep them alive for a sure win instead of a high chance of lynching one scum.
The question is how useful the power roles actually are - I think that the photographer is pretty much useless and the journalist isn't much use. Sure we have a cop, but is a cop more useful than having three confirmed townies? (To be clear, I'm not actually sure on this). Another (better) option is to claim simply 'I am a power role' or 'I am not a power role', then the scum are still forced to claim villagers, else we become more specific with our claims. That way, we still have three confirmed town, and the cop has a 2/3 chance of surviving to day 2 and giving us an extra confirmed townie or scum.
If we lynch a villager and a villager is nightkilled, don't we have a very likely win by massclaiming? We'd have 2 villagers and 2 fake villagers, with two chances at hitting scum - so we'd have 75% chance of winning even if lynching at random. Plus any results the power roles get.
If we lynch a villager and a villager is nightkilled, don't we have a very likely win by massclaiming? We'd have 2 villagers and 2 fake villagers, with two chances at hitting scum - so we'd have 75% chance of winning even if lynching at random. Plus any results the power roles get.
Scum in that case can claim 1 villager and 1 power role. In that case, we would have 1 fake power role/real power role pair, 2 villagers and 1 fake villager. Our chances would be 50% there with out the power roles results. (Hitting T/S/S, S/S or S/T/S, the odds are \frac{1}{2}\frac{1}{1}\frac{1}{3}+\frac{1}{2}\frac{1}{3} + 2\frac{1}{2}\frac{1}{3}\frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{2}), that is assuming we go for the power role claims first. Actually... I also get 50% chance of winning by random lynching 2 fake villagers and 2 villagers as well. (Hitting S/S or T/S/S, S/T/S, the probability is \frac{2}{4}\frac{1}{3}+2\frac{2}{4}\frac{2}{3}\frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{2})
This is still better than the 40% chance of winning you proposed earlier (80% chance of ending 2-1).
Also, do you guys think it's possible that 1 villager is a miller without that being posted in the opening post? Just came to my mind because of the meta thread.
Lorenz wrote:Also, do you guys think it's possible that 1 villager is a miller without that being posted in the opening post? Just came to my mind because of the meta thread.
I think that would go totally against the fact that this game has been advertised as completely open.
