[T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ So... We are done now. Thanks Ibarra!

For your simulated organized crime needs.

Moderators: jestingrabbit, Moderators General, Prelates

User avatar
existential_elevator
The awesomest one!
Posts: 3328
Joined: Fri Jul 27, 2007 10:31 am UTC
Location: The Ocean of Regret
Contact:

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby existential_elevator » Tue Jul 26, 2011 2:21 pm UTC

Might be that my brain is frazzled - can you explain the difference between targeting different people and targeting independently?

Also - it could be dangerous to assume that a faction will want to keep the cop for the opposite faction alive. A power role is usually more desirable to take out than a non-power role. We would sort of have to hope that one faction targets and the other doesn't, leaving us with one NK who is not the cop. Worst case scenario, neither bother to target the cop and we get 2 NKs guaranteed. So... for it to be a worthwhile strategy, we have to hope that one faction believes the other will support them.

User avatar
greenlover
Posts: 12
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2010 2:56 am UTC

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby greenlover » Tue Jul 26, 2011 2:22 pm UTC

Of all the plans so far proposed, I actually like a-wan's the best. However, I think it would be best to modify it insofar as having the claimed cop select a target for both cops. The reason why I prefer a-wan's plan (with that slight modification, of course) is because it solves several of the problems that the other plans have, and also has at least one solid benefit over any other plan.

First, having one of the cops claim and then publicly select a target for both cops to cop shrinks the mafia's enlarged influence on who is copped back to it's normal size. Secondly, the cop could select the player that they think is most suspicious, instead of trying to randomly decided who is copped - that way, if one of the mafia's goes on to kill that player, they are in essence just killing off a player that the town may have lynched that day anyway, which could be seen as basically being second lynch for town (rather than the random nominations that were being thrown around earlier).

Also, if we have the doc protect the claimed cop, it will almost certainly leave us in a better place tomorrow than either other plan. This is because only one of three options can happen during the night: 1) both mafia's target the cop, 2) both mafia's decide not to target the cop, or 3) one mafia targets the cop, while one does not. The first possibility leaves us without the cop, but with only one NK during N1, the second option leaves us with a confirmed towny on D2, and the third option leaves us with both only one NK during N1 and a confirmed towny on D2. Any of those options is an advantage over either other plan that has so far been proposed.

(btw - trying to reason out whether option 1 or 2 is more beneficial for mafia/less beneficial for town is a quick way to get on my suspicions list, because you're going to be helping the mafias prevent option 3 from ever happening. Discuss it if you want, this is just fyi.)

User avatar
roband
Posts: 2545
Joined: Tue Sep 21, 2010 2:52 pm UTC
Location: UK

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby roband » Tue Jul 26, 2011 2:27 pm UTC

Greenlover - option 3 is great, until you realise that the mafia can just kill the person who the cops investigate. Only 1 NK, but possibly 2 - if the mafias decide to not bother targetting the cop at all, and NO confirmed townie on the next day.

User avatar
roband
Posts: 2545
Joined: Tue Sep 21, 2010 2:52 pm UTC
Location: UK

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby roband » Tue Jul 26, 2011 2:29 pm UTC

ebwop: I just realised that your options covered that. I didn't read them very well.

but we'd have to hope pretty strongly about option 3 occuring, and it's not guaranteed at all.

I maintain that the doctor themselves should decide who to protect.

User avatar
a-wan
Posts: 5
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 3:51 pm UTC

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby a-wan » Tue Jul 26, 2011 2:41 pm UTC

e_e:

Sorry, I should have been more clear. The difference between targeting separately and targeting independently is that when targeting independently the only one who decides who to target is the cop himself, meaning there's a chance both cops target the same individual. In order to be guaranteed to target different individuals, the cops would have to know who the other cop was going to target so it would have to be decided by the group.

User avatar
Ibarra
Posts: 5
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2011 1:06 pm UTC
Location: The Philippines

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby Ibarra » Tue Jul 26, 2011 3:36 pm UTC

So what you're saying greenlover is that:
a) We have a cop claim and ask him to pick the investigation target.
b) We have the doctor protect the claimed cop.

I'm not quite sure about this line of action during Day 1.
Even though one side wouldn't target the cop of the other side, bringing that knowledge out in the open might be dangerous.
For example, if the doctor dies, and the seer/cop doesn't have a positive result yet, he/she is a free target for the NK.
I prefer that the cop/seer remain incognito until he gets a positive result. Then he/she can claim in the open.

Let me also reiterate what I suggested a while ago that we have votals for the investigations, because they could act as a secondary vote analysis. Mafia wouldn't want cop to investigate their partner. The werewolves wouldn't want the seer to investigate their own too.

True there are four scum, but they are divided into two teams. One team wouldn't exactly care if the other was investigated. Thus the control of the votes would be less influenced by a scum team as one may think. I propose that while the cop/seer remain incognito we vote for who to investigate. After a cop/seer claims in the open then we use what greenlover suggested.

Thoughts?
Red text is for solid facts.
Blue text is for accusations.

User avatar
a-wan
Posts: 5
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 3:51 pm UTC

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby a-wan » Tue Jul 26, 2011 3:55 pm UTC

There are pros and cons to both plans. The biggest con for the strategy of having one cop claim is that if the doctor is killed then we lose a cop on night 2. But I think with the probability of three kills every day that we are likely to have lost both cops by night 2 anyways. With one cop claiming, we only lose a cop on night two if the doctor is killed on night one. In other words, we are more likely to have the cop around on Day 3 than not if the cop claims.

As a follow up to the numbers I ran earlier, obviously the numbers don't change dramatically, but we do gain information by seeing which way people vote. So if people are convinced that we shouldn't have one cop claim today, then I'll fall in line with voting first on who we should investigate since we probably gain the most information by having the two votes.

In fact, maybe the more votes we have the better. The problem with math is that we assume too much independence, when really I think the votes can provide good information. What if we do this:

1. Everyone votes for two people.
2. The people with the top two vote totals get investigated
3. We either
--a. Decide after the first vote which should be investigated by the cop and which by the seer, or
--b. Leave it up to the cop and the seer to decide for themselves which of the two to investigate
4. We analyze people's votes and decide who to lynch.

Honestly, I think I like 3b better than 3a because it leaves less room for scum to make sure they get investigated by the wrong cop.

User avatar
roband
Posts: 2545
Joined: Tue Sep 21, 2010 2:52 pm UTC
Location: UK

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby roband » Tue Jul 26, 2011 4:09 pm UTC

Ibarra wrote:For example, if the doctor dies, and the seer/cop doesn't have a positive result yet, he/she is a free target for the NK.

Ibarra wrote:Let me also reiterate what I suggested a while ago that we have votals for the investigations, because they could act as a secondary vote analysis. Mafia wouldn't want cop to investigate their partner. The werewolves wouldn't want the seer to investigate their own too.


Sorry, I didn't say anything on this before, as it was me who suggested secondary votals - and it's obvious that we could look for patterns in it. I like the idea.

a-wan, I really don't like the idea of choosing two people for the cop and seer to investigate. If we want to investigate two people, the cop and seer should decide by themselves. If they investigate the same person by coincidence, we can live with that.
I really do think we should only take control of the investigations, if we plan to aim them at one person.
We would still have votals to decide on who that person should be, which can be followed up depending on the cop result.

My suggestion is:

Vote: e_e
Investigate: webby (random pick, because he's ALWAYS town :P )

Those are serious votes by the way. e_e was the first person to mention two factions working together - that's NEVER going to be in town's interests. As soon as that happens, town are guaranteed a loss. Also, she seemed to be buddying me a little earlier, which I didn't like.

User avatar
roband
Posts: 2545
Joined: Tue Sep 21, 2010 2:52 pm UTC
Location: UK

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby roband » Tue Jul 26, 2011 4:12 pm UTC

Well I messed that up! Here's how it should have been:

Ibarra wrote:For example, if the doctor dies, and the seer/cop doesn't have a positive result yet, he/she is a free target for the NK.


Yeah, this is the flaw in that plan.

Ibarra wrote:Let me also reiterate what I suggested a while ago that we have votals for the investigations, because they could act as a secondary vote analysis. Mafia wouldn't want cop to investigate their partner. The werewolves wouldn't want the seer to investigate their own too.

Sorry, I didn't say anything on this before, as it was me who suggested secondary votals - and it's obvious that we could look for patterns in it. I like the idea.

a-wan, I really don't like the idea of choosing two people for the cop and seer to investigate. If we want to investigate two people, the cop and seer should decide by themselves. If they investigate the same person by coincidence, we can live with that.
I really do think we should only take control of the investigations, if we plan to aim them at one person.
We would still have votals to decide on who that person should be, which can be followed up depending on the cop result.

My suggestion is:

Vote: e_e
Investigate: webby (random pick, because he's ALWAYS town :P )

Those are serious votes by the way. e_e was the first person to mention two factions working together - that's NEVER going to be in town's interests. As soon as that happens, town are guaranteed a loss. Also, she seemed to be buddying me a little earlier, which I didn't like.

User avatar
existential_elevator
The awesomest one!
Posts: 3328
Joined: Fri Jul 27, 2007 10:31 am UTC
Location: The Ocean of Regret
Contact:

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby existential_elevator » Tue Jul 26, 2011 4:24 pm UTC

existential_elevator wrote:
roband wrote:Potential tactic - we have a primary vote for a lynch, and a secondary vote for a 'cop/seer' target.
I was actually just thinking something similar to this. It makes sense to be able to co-ordinate the cop/seer, as no one of them is going to clear someone as town. I was going to suggest that they try to co-ordinate on whoever has the next highest number of votes at the lynch? So long as they don't reveal their identities, they're safe. So long as the doctor is alive, they're safe if they need to claim. It's a pity we didn't get the full number of players, because having both doctors would have made it a whole lot easier for seer and cop to claim.

existential_elevator wrote:...the mod is dead? :shock:

So, anyway, strategy talk, I guess. To get the ball rolling, I understand that the best bet for town is to hope that the two non-town factions focus on wiping eachother out rather than wiping town out. I'm not sure what ideal play would look like, but I guess we want one faction to be eliminated as soon as possible in order to reduce the number of nightkills. I doubt any early game cross-faction alliances are possible or advisable, but I guess that they are likely in endgame as we could wind up in a kingmaker situation.

Thoughts?

Not sure why you think I was buddying you. I had been minding my own business at home, thinking strategy, and when I went to post my thoughts you'd already half done it. Also not sure what you mean by being the first person to suggest factions working together - I was kind of doing the opposite.

I think I got the posts you were referring to? Let me know if I missed it (I am at work)

User avatar
a-wan
Posts: 5
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 3:51 pm UTC

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby a-wan » Tue Jul 26, 2011 4:26 pm UTC

roband, I'm not saying that I necessarily want two people investigated, I just think having everybody pick two people they want investigated gives us more information.

Maybe we could just nominate two people for the investigation and we pick the top vote getter. That way we get a little more information from people but we still guaranteed confirmation of town or scum on the one person.

Also, I think we should vote for the lynch after we vote on investigation. If the first five people all vote for e_e, then all of a sudden we've hammered and we won't know who should be investigated.

User avatar
Misnomer
Posts: 13
Joined: Wed Jul 21, 2010 8:42 pm UTC

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby Misnomer » Tue Jul 26, 2011 4:37 pm UTC

I've got to say, I find myself in almost complete agreement with Roband... (cue buddying accusation :p)

But no, in all seriousness - if we're going to direct the investigations, we should direct them at the same target, so that even if we don't turn up scum, we get a rock-solid confirmed townie. Otherwise, I don't think we should direct them at all - and beyond content generation, I don't really see any advantage in a-wan's picking a selection of 2 from a vote, and then throwing it to the winds which of the pair gets investigated by each of the cops.

If we're not going to direct both investigations though, then I do suggest following one of the cops. There'd be no reason why the other anti-town faction would want to kill the outed cop, so there's no real reason why the plan shouldn't work.

Speaking of which, I found e_e's posts about the factions taking out each other's cops particularly jarring. It could be a simple mistake, but it could also be an attempt to scare town away from any sort of cop claim.

Ninja: a-wan's modified plan (2 votes, but 1 selected as target) sounds good.
moody7277 wrote:The role of SDK in this game will be played by Misnomer. [/soapopera]

User avatar
roband
Posts: 2545
Joined: Tue Sep 21, 2010 2:52 pm UTC
Location: UK

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby roband » Tue Jul 26, 2011 4:49 pm UTC

e_e, I'll get back to you later when I have a little more time, but fear not :)

The problem I have with picking two people for the investigations and choosing between them is this: Who chooses the two?
It's much better to have a consensus out of everybody.

User avatar
a-wan
Posts: 5
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 3:51 pm UTC

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby a-wan » Tue Jul 26, 2011 5:04 pm UTC

I was just saying that since we don't expect everybody to pick the same two people, we'll get one person who has more votes than any of the others, so we pick them to be investigated. On top of that, we'll get two votes out of everyone (three once we vote on who to lynch) and we'll have more content to analyze.

User avatar
existential_elevator
The awesomest one!
Posts: 3328
Joined: Fri Jul 27, 2007 10:31 am UTC
Location: The Ocean of Regret
Contact:

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby existential_elevator » Tue Jul 26, 2011 5:17 pm UTC

I still think it would be simpler to pick the person with the second-most votes in the lynch, because why would you vote to lynch someone unless you thought they were a danger to town? I mean... unless you think that people will want to try and find confirmed town with the investigations? But I don't see how that helps too much?

Also, the big gaping hole in this is as follows. Example:

Seer claims. We play follow the seer. Both the seer and the cop investigate $player. The cop finds that $player is Mafia. Now the cop has to claim in order to deliver this information. The doctor can only protect one of the cops. See where I'm going?

I'm really anti- one of the investigators claiming unless they have information. This just doesn't seem like a sensible game set up in which to be playing follow-the-cop. If we reach an agreement that the seer/cop investigate the same person at night, great. Having one claim just seems to invite trouble.

And I do think we're relying too heavily on non-town definitely wanting to kill other non-town, rather than just behaving chaotically or acting against town first. Of course, it's ideal for us if they want to take eachother out, but why should we assume scum will play in a way beneficial to town? I'm not sure how that strategy would benefit them, per se, other than making it less likely that they get NK'd.

User avatar
Misnomer
Posts: 13
Joined: Wed Jul 21, 2010 8:42 pm UTC

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby Misnomer » Tue Jul 26, 2011 5:35 pm UTC

existential_elevator wrote:Seer claims. We play follow the seer. Both the seer and the cop investigate $player. The cop finds that $player is Mafia. Now the cop has to claim in order to deliver this information. The doctor can only protect one of the cops. See where I'm going?

Ok, you've got a point there. Though ftc remains a strategy if/when we lose one of the cops.

existential_elevator wrote:And I do think we're relying too heavily on non-town definitely wanting to kill other non-town, rather than just behaving chaotically or acting against town first. Of course, it's ideal for us if they want to take eachother out, but why should we assume scum will play in a way beneficial to town? I'm not sure how that strategy would benefit them, per se, other than making it less likely that they get NK'd.
But getting NK'd is the biggest threat to the scum factions, far more so than the lynch. With the lynch, they at least have an input, and some form of control over it. But they have absolutely no control or influence over the rival scum faction. And while they certainly don't want town to triumph, it would be absolutely moronic for them to deliberately kill off the rival cop - scum ideally want to target rival scum or their own cop, and to a lesser extent the doctor. If they go after the rival cop, then not only is there no chance of them hitting one of the roles they really want to hit, but they also stand less chance of finding their rival scum faction, and of having town use their lynch on them. The only reason they could possibly want to deliberately kill the rival cop would be as a massive fu to town, and that would be borderline playing against their win condition (or at least, not playing for it).
moody7277 wrote:The role of SDK in this game will be played by Misnomer. [/soapopera]

User avatar
greenlover
Posts: 12
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2010 2:56 am UTC

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby greenlover » Tue Jul 26, 2011 5:37 pm UTC

We have a lot of different plans out there, and a deadline coming up. Does anyone object to taking a vote on what plan to use? That could help clear things up for everyone.

Moving on to Ibarra's points. What you suggested, Ibarra, sounds reasonable, though I doubt that our cops will live past N2 with your plan, either. With three kills flying around in a 9 person game, the game will basically be over by that point. At least if we run a-wan's original (though slightly modified) plan, we will certainly be better off tomorrow than if we run your (or any other democratic voting) plan. Also, if we chose a target via voting, the target will be influenced by the 4 individuals who have special interests. So, I would still advise that we have a cop claim now and decide who is investigated. However, I am willing to go along with whatever the majority decides.

I need some time to think about a-wan's new plan (just saw it when I got online to respond to Ibarra), but at first glance it seems pretty good.

ninja'd -

E_E wrote:Seer claims. We play follow the seer. Both the seer and the cop investigate $player. The cop finds that $player is Mafia. Now the cop has to claim in order to deliver this information. The doctor can only protect one of the cops. See where I'm going?
I fail to see how this is a problem. If the mafias act as you are assuming they will (IE: try to kill the cop that can detect them), then not only do we lynch mafia on D2, but we can also only have 1 NK go through N2? That sounds like a pretty good deal to me.

I think that a large part of our disagreement may exist because we value the cop roles differently. I think that the possibility of losing a cop in return for lynching a mafia player/having a confirmed towny for three days straight (assuming that the mafia doesn't decide to spend both kills on the claimed cop N1)/etc is a pretty good deal. Do you think otherwise?

Sorry for the rushed post - in a hurry.

User avatar
existential_elevator
The awesomest one!
Posts: 3328
Joined: Fri Jul 27, 2007 10:31 am UTC
Location: The Ocean of Regret
Contact:

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby existential_elevator » Tue Jul 26, 2011 6:26 pm UTC

..yeah, but if we're happy to assume that the cops will make the same target, silence = target was town. As soon as we lose the seer or the cop we can no longer confirm if someone is town at all. Worst case scenario we have an endgame where we've eliminated nasty faction x, and all we have left is a cop for nasty faction x (now useless) and vanilla town. It just seems that claiming to me doesn't have any extra benefits, other than more or less guananteeing that one of our cops will die if both have to reveal themselves. What you're proposing would have been a solid strategy if we had both doctors, honestly. I'm just not as convinced of it now. I guess it's really the cop/seer's call in the end.

User avatar
roband
Posts: 2545
Joined: Tue Sep 21, 2010 2:52 pm UTC
Location: UK

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby roband » Tue Jul 26, 2011 6:35 pm UTC

I don't understand why we're discussing anything other than my idea...

We vote for who to lynch. We have a separate vote for who to investigate.
Cop and seer both investigate that person.

If either of them get a hit, they claim. If they don't get a hit, that person is confirmed town, as they won't say anything.

If they get a hit, we follow-the-cop with the doctor protecting. This is assuming we don't lynch the doctor, or either of the cops.

Simples.

User avatar
existential_elevator
The awesomest one!
Posts: 3328
Joined: Fri Jul 27, 2007 10:31 am UTC
Location: The Ocean of Regret
Contact:

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby existential_elevator » Tue Jul 26, 2011 6:37 pm UTC

That's exactly what I'm trying to say

Well, except that I think there's no need for separate votes unless the lynch is unanimous.

User avatar
a-wan
Posts: 5
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 3:51 pm UTC

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby a-wan » Tue Jul 26, 2011 6:58 pm UTC

Of course, how will we know if the lynch is unanimous until we vote? We need to vote on who to investigate first, then vote to lynch. If people don't want to vote for two people, I'll go along with only voting for one, but I still think we get more information if we vote for two.

If we're voting on who to investigate, I think we have content from at least something from most people (except John Citizen--lurking might be a good strategy with such a short game...wait for a modprod and you at least survive to D2 without giving away any content).

For the investigation I

Nominate: e_e

Her posts have her jumping back and forth in my mind between town and scum. If we confirm her as town, at the very least we would have one of the more active players confirmed as town.

User avatar
existential_elevator
The awesomest one!
Posts: 3328
Joined: Fri Jul 27, 2007 10:31 am UTC
Location: The Ocean of Regret
Contact:

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby existential_elevator » Tue Jul 26, 2011 7:16 pm UTC

a-wan wrote:Of course, how will we know if the lynch is unanimous until we vote?
Unless you have scum pushing through a lynch, it's pretty rare (especially on day 1) to have a unanimous target.

Not that there's any problem with having two votes, it just complicates things, surely? It would give better info if we all just listed in order of scumminess our views after we put in our main votes. That would give far more discussion information, too.

User avatar
roband
Posts: 2545
Joined: Tue Sep 21, 2010 2:52 pm UTC
Location: UK

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby roband » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:33 pm UTC

Nah, e_e that's rubbish and I reckon you know it.

So, your way: I vote to lynch player X, and that person is lynched. I didn't get any say in who got investigated.

My way: I vote to lynch player X and investigate player Y. Player X may or may not get lynched, but my vote for player Y may still be important enough to decide who gets investigated.

Sure, I think player X is THE MOST suspicious, but that doesn't mean they're the only player I want to look at for being a badguy.


About my vote before, it was a feeler vote, based on not a lot of scumtellness. You reacted pretty well and I intended to unvote.
The fact that you're now pushing this, clearly inferior, strategy means that I'm pretty sure you're scum. My vote stays.

Also, the fact that you only want one set of votals makes me think that either you or your partner have done something to give themselves away. I will be re-reading the thread very carefully in about 12 hours.

User avatar
existential_elevator
The awesomest one!
Posts: 3328
Joined: Fri Jul 27, 2007 10:31 am UTC
Location: The Ocean of Regret
Contact:

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby existential_elevator » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:42 pm UTC

roband wrote:My way: I vote to lynch player X and investigate player Y. Player X may or may not get lynched, but my vote for player Y may still be important enough to decide who gets investigated.
I hadn't really thought of this :| I guess my worry was that having two seperate votes would make it more likely that a good candidate would be overlooked? I mean, imagine if the lynch vote was equally divided between two players, and the investigate vote was completely different, and didn't mention the second lynch candidate?

How would you feel about everyone rating afterward instead of voting?

User avatar
roband
Posts: 2545
Joined: Tue Sep 21, 2010 2:52 pm UTC
Location: UK

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby roband » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:54 pm UTC

Nah, I don't see the benefit.

Your vote for the investigation could even be "player Y if X gets lynched, otherwise, player X". I think that would be more than acceptable.

The thing is that the lynch votals don't show everyone's bigger opinions.

User avatar
existential_elevator
The awesomest one!
Posts: 3328
Joined: Fri Jul 27, 2007 10:31 am UTC
Location: The Ocean of Regret
Contact:

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby existential_elevator » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:55 pm UTC

roband wrote:"player Y if X gets lynched, otherwise, player X"
That I could agree with.

User avatar
roband
Posts: 2545
Joined: Tue Sep 21, 2010 2:52 pm UTC
Location: UK

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby roband » Tue Jul 26, 2011 9:40 pm UTC

I'm still voting for you :D

User avatar
Lorenz
Posts: 27
Joined: Fri Apr 29, 2011 5:57 am UTC

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby Lorenz » Tue Jul 26, 2011 10:33 pm UTC

Looks like I missed all the action.
1. Everyone votes for two people.
2. The people with the top two vote totals get investigated
3. We either
--b. Leave it up to the cop and the seer to decide for themselves which of the two to investigate
4. We analyze people's votes and decide who to lynch.

This is the best idea. If we do decide on a single person for both cops to investigate they can either be NKed or NKed next night if no claims. Really, confirmed townies are not that good so early in the game, they can be wiped out pretty easily. However, half confirmed townies can quickly become confirmed townies at a later time.
This is also a light variation of what I had actually proposed.

Some of the probabilities are somewhat skewed, but it can get much more complicated, so it's not a point I'm spending time on. (Most are calculated on, for example, the probability of catching exactly one scum, rather than at least one scum. Stuff like this but I don't think we're thinking to much about them anyway)

So far a-wan/roband/greenlover are the most solid on my opinion. Also, misnomer is the only one I have any serious alarms on (and not because of that random nomination of course). Mostly because of
But no, in all seriousness - if we're going to direct the investigations, we should direct them at the same target, so that even if we don't turn up scum, we get a rock-solid confirmed townie

I just don't like that logic as I explained above. This is kind of silly, because roband is proposing this also and I see them as town but... I guess hunches are pretty much what we have day 1 I guess. (Roband is strongly proposing it, and misnomer is following it... I guess that's what brings this feelings)

So, in the spirit of roband, which I completely approve of, of voting early.
Un-nominate
Vote: Misnomer
Nominate 1 : e_e (If misnomer lives, then misnomer)
Nominate 2: webby (if e_e lives, then e_e... AND if doing the 2 nominations thing.)

I was actually going to vote e_e, because I like roband right now and its silly to vote for different persons than the others that you consider town. However, I re-read her posts and I didn't get any serious alarms. I fear not, because that's the spirit of voting early. I have plenty of time to change my vote.

User avatar
webby
Posts: 139
Joined: Sat Jul 03, 2010 11:02 am UTC
Location: Sydney, Australia
Contact:

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby webby » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:02 am UTC

I forgot how hectic turbos were! Especially in my timezone, where I go to bed and wake up to find all the Europeans and Americans have posted while I've been sleeping. :P

I think it's pretty obvious that targetting the same person is better than targetting separate people, because confirmed town is useful (although not always a good thing for town if it takes a scum kill when they could be killing someone from the other faction, half-confirmed town is worse than useless because it gives one set of scum information.

How did we get around the problem of 'what if both scum factions decide to kill the cop target?' Is it that one nightkill is better than two? I'm not convinced of this.

Assume a mislynch (4-2-2)
Probability of 2 kills on scum = 1/9
Probability of 1 kill on scum, one kill on town = 2* 1/3 *2/3 = 4/9
Probability of two kills on town = 2/3 *1/2 = 1/3
Probability of one kill on town (because kills hit same person) = 2/3* 1/6 = 1/9

*checks that adds up to 1* *it does* =D

So the average number of town kills is 1.2 and the average number of scum kills is 0.3. Is this really worse for us than one guaranteed kill?

User avatar
Lorenz
Posts: 27
Joined: Fri Apr 29, 2011 5:57 am UTC

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby Lorenz » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:49 am UTC

Can someone explain to me how on earth is a confirmed town useful? I fail to see any single scenario where it wouldn't just be used against us.
Also, an way I can think of addressing 'what if both scum decide to kill the cop target' leads to discussing scum strategies. So be careful with that.

*gasp*
I just realized why e_e seemed scummy to others. I'm not un-voting and recasting vote now because I could change votes yet again later. I don't want to make a whole lot of mess of vote-changing.

User avatar
webby
Posts: 139
Joined: Sat Jul 03, 2010 11:02 am UTC
Location: Sydney, Australia
Contact:

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby webby » Wed Jul 27, 2011 1:01 am UTC

Lorenz wrote:Can someone explain to me how on earth is a confirmed town useful? I fail to see any single scenario where it wouldn't just be used against us.
Also, an way I can think of addressing 'what if both scum decide to kill the cop target' leads to discussing scum strategies. So be careful with that.



Of course, but I believe that in general the best assumption to make is that scum aren't stupid, and to go for the objectively best strategy rather than hoping scum stuff up. If that means explaining what scum would/should do in certain situations, then so be it.

And I tend to agree with you on the confirmed town thing. It means we don't mislynch, sure, but we don't want scum to know who's town and who's not. I'm not in favour of any cop strategy, the cops should be looking for scum results and not town results. I don't think they should claim town results in fact, because they're more useful for scum than for town.

When close to 50% of the players are scum, a cop, who knows that they're town, is likely to be able to do better than a majority or plurality vote of a target.

I'm going to read back and search for someone to vote for later.

User avatar
webby
Posts: 139
Joined: Sat Jul 03, 2010 11:02 am UTC
Location: Sydney, Australia
Contact:

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby webby » Wed Jul 27, 2011 1:03 am UTC

EBWOP: With an exception of course, that in some, but not all, situations, a cop who has a town result on someone should speak up when we're about to lynch them. That clearly depends on the game situation.

User avatar
Ibarra
Posts: 5
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2011 1:06 pm UTC
Location: The Philippines

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby Ibarra » Wed Jul 27, 2011 6:02 am UTC

Lorenz wrote:*gasp*
I just realized why e_e seemed scummy to others. I'm not un-voting and recasting vote now because I could change votes yet again later. I don't want to make a whole lot of mess of vote-changing.

Vote: Lorenz
This looks like you're making an excuse to vote e_e later. If someone is more suspicious than the reset for you then vote them.

So far, I think the best strategy is to:
a) Vote regularly.
b) Have a second votal for investigations (the second most suspicious).
c) Have both cop and seer investigate the investigation target.
c-1) The moment one cop/seer gets a positive results and claims, the claimed cop/seer will decide the investigation target.
d) Doc protects the investigation target until no cop/seer has claimed.
d-1) When a cop/seer has claimed, doctor will protect cop/seer who claimed.
Red text is for solid facts.
Blue text is for accusations.

User avatar
webby
Posts: 139
Joined: Sat Jul 03, 2010 11:02 am UTC
Location: Sydney, Australia
Contact:

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby webby » Wed Jul 27, 2011 6:14 am UTC

Ibarra wrote:
So far, I think the best strategy is to:
a) Vote regularly.
b) Have a second votal for investigations (the second most suspicious).
c) Have both cop and seer investigate the investigation target.
c-1) The moment one cop/seer gets a positive results and claims, the claimed cop/seer will decide the investigation target.
d) Doc protects the investigation target until no cop/seer has claimed.
d-1) When a cop/seer has claimed, doctor will protect cop/seer who claimed.


That doesn't make much sense to me. Why would both cop and seer investigate the same target if we're looking for positive results? That basically halves the chance of finding scum.

Having had time to reflect, I'm not sure that the scum teams would kill the investigation target - I think I got that wrong. Both scum teams killing a townie investigation target would be bad for town (on average), but it wouldn't be the best thing for scum. So the only problem I can see is that it takes away the doctor protect as being of use.

Personally I'd still prefer that the cop, seer, doctor do what they think best - I can't see why any of the strategies discussed are better than that.

User avatar
Ibarra
Posts: 5
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2011 1:06 pm UTC
Location: The Philippines

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby Ibarra » Wed Jul 27, 2011 7:55 am UTC

Seer can only investigate if someone is a Werewolf
Cop can only investigate if someone is Mafia
If both Seer and Cop investigate the same person, that person will be either sure town or either Werewolf or Cop.
Red text is for solid facts.
Blue text is for accusations.

User avatar
roband
Posts: 2545
Joined: Tue Sep 21, 2010 2:52 pm UTC
Location: UK

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby roband » Wed Jul 27, 2011 8:06 am UTC

Lorenz wrote:However, half confirmed townies can quickly become confirmed townies at a later time.



lol.. no. That's a stupid thing to say. The only way to confirm anything is for cops, or claims which are uncontested. As claims won't happen until we have something concrete, we HAVE to use our cops as early as possible, before they get killed. Half-confirmed townies will remain half-confirmed townies, IMO.

Lorenz wrote:Can someone explain to me how on earth is a confirmed town useful? I fail to see any single scenario where it wouldn't just be used against us.


Erm.. we don't lynch them?

Lorenz wrote:*gasp*
I just realized why e_e seemed scummy to others. I'm not un-voting and recasting vote now because I could change votes yet again later. I don't want to make a whole lot of mess of vote-changing.

This screams of "oh-god-they-caught-my-partner-I-better-not-associate-myself". Congratulations, you're next on my scum list :)

Ibarra wrote:So far, I think the best strategy is to:
a) Vote regularly.
b) Have a second votal for investigations (the second most suspicious).
c) Have both cop and seer investigate the investigation target.
c-1) The moment one cop/seer gets a positive results and claims, the claimed cop/seer will decide the investigation target.
d) Doc protects the investigation target until no cop/seer has claimed.
d-1) When a cop/seer has claimed, doctor will protect cop/seer who claimed.


They're waking up! But seriously, this is the way to go.

webby wrote:Personally I'd still prefer that the cop, seer, doctor do what they think best - I can't see why any of the strategies discussed are better than that.


Because a cop getting a non-mafia result on target A and the seer getting a non-wolf result on target B is absolutely useless. Targetting the same person gives us cold hard facts.
I'm happy for the doctor to either protect the person being targetted, or doing their own thing, it's good to mix it up and confuse the scum a little.

(ninja'd by Ibarra being a bit more concise than I) :D

User avatar
webby
Posts: 139
Joined: Sat Jul 03, 2010 11:02 am UTC
Location: Sydney, Australia
Contact:

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby webby » Wed Jul 27, 2011 8:26 am UTC

roband wrote:

webby wrote:Personally I'd still prefer that the cop, seer, doctor do what they think best - I can't see why any of the strategies discussed are better than that.


Because a cop getting a non-mafia result on target A and the seer getting a non-wolf result on target B is absolutely useless. Targetting the same person gives us cold hard facts.
I'm happy for the doctor to either protect the person being targetted, or doing their own thing, it's good to mix it up and confuse the scum a little.

(ninja'd by Ibarra being a bit more concise than I) :D


I'm still not in complete agreement here, but it's not as bad a strategy as I thought it was - I missed the fact that you don't actually miss out on an extra chance to hit scum if both cops target the same player - the chances of hitting scum are actually the same as if they target separate players. Of course it's important that if we lose a cop, the other one doesn't claim any town results, because that gives information to scum that town doesn't have. The other thing is that we need to have a discussion over whether to claim tomorrow based on the outcome of the night, because there can be situations where it's bad to confirm town (when scum wants to make sure they hit town rather than each other).

So I think I'll stop arguing with this and start analysing players instead. I'm going to do an analysis post tonight.

User avatar
roband
Posts: 2545
Joined: Tue Sep 21, 2010 2:52 pm UTC
Location: UK

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby roband » Wed Jul 27, 2011 8:28 am UTC

webby wrote:I'm going to do an analysis post tonight.


I do love a good webby-analysis-post ;)

User avatar
cjdrum
Posts: 113
Joined: Sun Dec 12, 2010 4:51 am UTC
Location: BACK

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby cjdrum » Wed Jul 27, 2011 8:29 am UTC

Vote Count 1
existential_elevator (1): roband
Misnomer (1): Lorenz
Lorenz (1): Ibarra

9 alive. 5 to lynch.
Deadline is 2 days, 13 hours and 1 minute from now.
:shock:

User avatar
webby
Posts: 139
Joined: Sat Jul 03, 2010 11:02 am UTC
Location: Sydney, Australia
Contact:

Re: [T] Mafia + Werewolf ~ D1: Man's Worst Enemy

Postby webby » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:51 pm UTC

roband wrote:
webby wrote:I'm going to do an analysis post tonight.


I do love a good webby-analysis-post ;)


The last one got you mislynched, hopefully I'll do better this time. :P

1. roband:
Spoiler:
Reasonable discussion about set-up, strategies. Slightly townie.
Suggests strategy which seems reasonable and generated a lot of discussion. Townie.
FOS on e_e, which I think is reasonable - something about that post from e_e seemed a little off to me too. Slightly townie.
Defence and discussion of his strategy. Neutral to slightly townie.
Attempt at maths which is slightly wrong. :P (Ignored the fact that cop wouldn't target themselves)I still don't agree that confirmed town is as useful as finding scum. But overall still pretty solid.
Further discussion and defence of strategy. Neutral to slightly townie. Seems enthusiastic about the idea, I think this is genuine.
Votes e_e and suggests investigating me. Neutral, not sure about e_e, so will reserve judgement until later on this.
Doesn't understand why anyone wouldn't go with his idea. A little arrogant. :P
Intended to unvote e_e, until e_e proposed what he says is a 'clearly inferior' strategy.
Doesn't like Lorenz's attack on e_e, thinking it's distancing. Slightly townie, a good call I think.


Overall - moderately townie. Enthusiasm for his idea seems genuine. Very active. Ready to put ideas out and put forward thoughts on who's scum. Either town, or being very bold.

2. Misnomer
Spoiler:
Believes scum factions should be helping us scumhunt. More speculation on strategy. Nominates Lorenz to be the one to be investigated without providing a reason. Overall neutral.
Thinks one cop should claim - and follow that cop. Not completely thought through. Again, neutral - jumping on other people's ideas, providing a few of his own, some good, some bad.
Points out that the biggest danger for scum is the nightkill, not the lynch, because they have no control over the nightkill. Neutral to slightly townie.


Overall - difficult, not that much content yet. I'll say neutral for now.

3. existential_elevator
Spoiler:
First to post, starts discussion. Hopes that two scum factions will take down each other. Neutral.
Agrees with me and roband's ideas. Neutral, but doesn't count as content.
Points out the fact the doctor only protects from one kill. Not well thought through because each mafia only wants to kill one of the cops. Neutral, I'll reserve judgement on this for now - a lot of the problems with these analyses is working out whether people put forward not-so-good ideas because they're scum, or they're genuinely helping, but making a mistake.
Claim that a power role is better for scum to take out than another power role. This doesn't make any sense, because the cop is actually helpful, and never harmful, to the scum faction it doesn't cop.
Responds to roband's accusations of buddying in a reasonable way. Neutral to slightly townie.
Points out problem with 'follow one of the cops'. There were bigger problems than the one pointed out, but slightly townie for this.
Logic fail on ranking by scumminess after we vote. Roband takes this as a scumtell, I'm not so sure of this - it seems a genuine mistake/misphrased.
Further discussion with roband.


A lot of stuff each way. Neutral overall, possibly a good cop target due to this as well as established links with other players.

4. John Citizen

Nothing. Lurker.

5. Lorenz
Spoiler:
Thinks roband's idea looks good. Worries about falseclaims. Neutral, no real new comment.
Suggests a two night strategy. Doesn't seem to consider the fact that one or both cops are likely to die. Neutral, good that there's content, but idea isn't well thought out.
Another not-so-well thought out idea. Chooses the worse of the two main plans. Slightly scummy.
Thinks a-wan, greenlover and roband are the most solidly townie. Neutral.
Has sudden revelation about e_e being scummy. Slightly scummy, something seems odd about this post.


Overall - either playing worse than he usually does, or scum. I'm going to say slightly to moderately scummy for now.

7. Ibarra
Spoiler:
Goes with the separate cop and seer targets. Neutral, this was before it was explained to be a bad idea.
Refutation of greenlover's idea. Further good strategy discussion. Slightly townie.
Picks up on the Lorenz thing about e_e. Slightly townie.
Further strategy discussion. I'm coming round to this idea now, it's better than I thought it was at first. Slightly townie.


Overall - Slightly to moderately townie. Getting a pretty good feeling about him so far.

8. greenlover
Spoiler:
Reasonable discussion of how the game differs from normal mafia. Slightly townie.
Points out problems with roband's strategy. Gets it a little wrong (overestimates the influence scum have). Neutral.
Likes and expands on a-wan's (now rejected) plan. Neutral - some good and some bad points.
Defends and expands on ideas. Slightly townie because belief in the idea seems genuine.


Overall - Neutral to slightly townie.

9. a-wan
Spoiler:
Suggests a cop claims and we follow that cop. Slightly townie because it was the first strategy of the game and promoted good discussion.
Worries that we're missing an opportunity to find two scum in one night. I share that concern, which is part of the reason I was objecting to the strategy for so long. Neutral to slightly townie.
Thinks two night strategies will fail. Expands on cop claiming strategy. Slightly townie, there's some good logic in that post.
Maths. I haven't had the time to check it. :P
Wants the two target strategy, which is discredited now, but generally the post is well argued. Neutral.
Points out the obvious, that we need to choose cop targets before hammering. Neutral.
Nominates e_e to be cop target, with good reasoning. Slightly townie.


Overall - I find quite a lot to like in his posts. Some problems in that strategies proposed aren't all great, but overall pretty solid. Slightly to moderately townie.

And I know I just put most people on the townie side of neutral in a game where half the players apart from me are scum. :P Here's a ranked list, maybe use that over the ratings.

Most townie to least townie:
1. roband
2. a-wan
3. Ibarra
4. greenlover
5. existential_elevator
6. Misnomer
7. Lorenz

Vote: Lorenz

John Citizen is lurking and given the towniness of most players who have posted so far, it to be considered as more likely to be scum than not.

I nominate existential_elevator for the investigation.


Return to “Mafia”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests