The thing about the 53% chance of winning for town is that that only applies to the two (who don't know who they are yet) who survive unconverted into day two. So it feels like we only have a 20% chance of winning. But I guess it isn't as unbalanced as I was thinking. Certainly the current Thing has the greatest chance of winning, unless we manage to get him (or should I say "it"?) to slip up.
I wouldn't say that: I'd argue that if you are town, and die D1 but the surviving town wins D2...you still won. The real loser by your argument would be D1 scum with a 0% chance of winning...they're the only guaranteed person to die! However, I would say that if scum wins D2, the person that was D1 scum is also a winner. They had to do their part. This is a team effort. No one can win this entirely by themselves.
Alright, a little review time.
We have Lorenz FOSing everyone, though he even calls attention to it in the post making it very winey.
mpolo seems to be trying to push that scum is likely to win...doesn't seem like a "lets give up argument", but rather a "We really need to try hard" argument, and thus is slightly townie.
Lataro is playing aggressive, and filling his posts with wine. This seems pretty typical, so still neutral, but perhaps slightly town.
Greenlover seemed to play it minimalist and non-confrontational with that response to Lataros attack. This seems slightly more scummy than not: If he was town, he should be trying harder to stop a town lynch as both D1 and D2 are extremely vital.
Alright, lets think about some likely plays for scum, since this is a bit different than normal.
With only 1 scum, and a max of 2 days, the first priority of scum would likely to be laying low. So, they will probably avoid being the first voter ( Hence the slightly town for Lataro even though he is acting typical/neutral ). In fact, they are most likely to go for the hammer vote: Since they won't be scum D2, we can't use that to help us. However, if they see people being a bit iffy, they might try to follow an initial vote and try to get a 3rd bandwagon vote. So, FoS whoever brings a vote on someone up to 2.
Another priority of Scum will be to move things fast. With a purely random vote, the D1 scum has a very good chance of surviving, and even more so since his own vote would likely never be random, but fully intended to keep a vote away from themselves. So, the less Town has to work on, the better for scum. I recommend we go for deadline....though we might run out of content before then since that's almost a week away and we have so few.
On to town: We should expect a lot of content coming out of town. We all need to put out quite a bit, and really work the scumhunting. We do have to be wary of blind alleys though, and vendettas, etc. We should take our time, and really think things through. Even wine is better than nothing. Random, while slightly town advantage, is extremely manipulable by Scum.
I look forward to Greenlovers next response the most, though I'm sure Lataros next response will not disappoint either.