[L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Game Over

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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Nov 03, 2011 7:57 am UTC

Mavketl wrote:lolwut. If someone is not posting, that is an in game issue. Not posting is anti-town behaviour.
This seems pretty minor but I don't want to seem like I'm ignoring it. I agree RR's D2 behavior is anti-town in that it hurts town, but I do not think it makes him more likely to be scum then anyone else, thus it is not deserving of a FOS. Throwing a FoS on someone who doesn't deserve one is scummy however.

@GL: So you are all individual survivors? If you die you lose or just one member of your group has to survive for you to win?
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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby slbub » Thu Nov 03, 2011 8:04 am UTC

Okay well as for RR they are just scum hunting and going off of the numbers for the lynches, so I'm not going to do anything, I am happy to see some real content coming from them, about time, I think that the point that they brought up about entropy and GL being in the same faction seems quite valid to me. Now I haven't played a game with lynchers, so I'm just going to assume (please correct me if I'm wrong). So, if entropy really wanted GL lynched all he would have had to do was to keep his mouth shut and it would have been done, but since he didn't post some form of content about any information in thread, and used his own hunch, he therefore got himself killed instead, the only thing I can see is that entropy was trying to save GL by throwing on a suspicious looking vote and hoping that it would grab the attention that it did. his feeble attempt to stay alive Doesn't help the case either.

Why did he do this? Well my thought on that are, that he had used some kind of one shot D1 ability and had no real purpose so if he got lynched then there was no real loss of a valuable member of the team only one that had become vanilla. This brings about the mods post which I ask...

mod, do/will we know if Rory ever had an ability that may have been used?

Either way, the point is that rory was usless at this point and that GL was more important, a possible role for him may be a role-blocker due to the fact there was only one kill last night and I don't think that taking out two people who didn't have abilities would stop the other two kills unless thre were role-blockers of some kind.

vote: greenlover
FoS: PeonixEnigma


for not voting either day and only having 2 posts with content, the last of which being a week ago.

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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby slbub » Thu Nov 03, 2011 8:05 am UTC

EBWOP:

As for the whole thing about his special gang, I'm not buying it until someone could prove any of this is true, the argument could be made that with 6 players dead it is kinda funny that there hasn't been any of the dead turning up as these survivors, but the point isn't that valid because none of Harry's gang has turned up dead either.

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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby roband » Thu Nov 03, 2011 9:03 am UTC

You get the information which has already been given to you. As with all other deaths, you are provided with the role name, faction and any ability that player was aware that they had.

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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby mpolo » Thu Nov 03, 2011 10:23 am UTC

O.K. I have now read with some more attention that my quick skim upon getting back last night.

Some things that pop up in this reading;:

Greenlover's claim - as Mavketl said, it would be pretty unusual to claim the existence of a whole faction as a false-claim, so there would seem to be reason to believe that his faction and role really exist. Winston and Charles are so minor that they don't even make Wikipedia's summary of the film -- is there any reason why Rory would be so eager to lynch Charles?

_Infina_ - I agree that there seems to be some "these are not the droids you're looking for" in his post. On the other hand, it is certainly true that there have been no deaths from Harry's gang, and the film would seem to put them on the "bad" side of the cast.

RoadieRich - welcome back to active posting. Some errors in the various arguments have been pointed out (a bodyguard wouldn't be expected to protect against a lynch), but in general a solid post.

BoomFrog - is very eager to identify a "town" faction. Seems to have the same win condition I have, so that I would tend to trust him. However, there remains the possibility that everybody (or nearly everybody) has a goal worded in that way (Dog's gang could want to get rid of all "agressive" factions, meaning those that work counter to his interests, for example.) This possibility is, however, mitigated by Rory's apparent lyncher goal, which would indicate that his gang likely has some other goal than the presumptive "town goal".
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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 2

Postby Angua » Thu Nov 03, 2011 10:31 am UTC

Posting habits D2 - I've just tallied them up because it takes time going through all of them. Also, I counted double posts as just one post, as most of those are ebwops.
before Roband's post about lurkers
infina -111
lorenz 111
mpolo111
makvetl1
angua 11
boomfrog 1
slbub 1111
rr 1
webby1
entropy1
dabigcheez1

after roband's post about lurkers
angua 11111
greenlover 11
mpolo1111
lorenz1111
boomfrog11111
dabigcheez11111
slbub111
gojoe1111
infina11
Makvetl1111
Chandani 11
phoenixenigma1
entropy1111
rr111
webby1111

Combined counts for entire day-
infina -5
lorenz - 7
mpolo - 7
makvetl -5
angua -7
boomfrog - 6
slbub 7
rr -4
webby - 5
entropy 5
dabigcheeze - 6
greenlover - 2
gojoe - 5
chandani -2
phoenixenigma - 1

I'm going to take everything under 5 as lurkery (though RR already gave their reasons why, so I'm letting them off). I have a class in a minute, so I'm going to finish this later, but my next step is going to be going through those posters with few posts, and seeing how they did content-wise. However, I thought I might leave my thought process here if anyone else wants to use the data in a different way, as I've gone through all this trouble of making it :P
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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby Angua » Thu Nov 03, 2011 2:23 pm UTC

Greenlover (2 posts): 1) Apologises for not posting as they had a busy few days. Doesn't react much to bf and webby for voting for them. Says that infina's discussion generating post was winey, but as they couldn't see how it would be anti-town, decided to let it slide. Votes for Roadie-rich, lurker.

2)Again, seems busy. Counters entropy's vote on them by saying that they are Charles of Winston's gang. Says that they are night action immune, so Entropy must be lying. Votes entropy.

My thoughts - Greenlover's behaviour has actually been pretty suspicious D2 now that I look more closely. They have already been called out on voting for Roadierich as a lurker, even though Roband has already said that all those not to post would be modkilled. They also chose the only lurker(nb, mav's early post was also contentless and just a checking in one, but I guess she had been more active on D1) that had posted earlier that day (though, granted, it was only a one-line, contentless post, so maybe it stuck out more). When saying that Entropy must be lying, they missed the important point that entropy voted for them mid-day, which would seem to suggest a day action, which greenlover would probably not be immune to.

Chandani (2 posts): 1) Quite a content-filled post, which came directly after slbub's vote on them. Started out saying why they didn't vote for GoP at the end of D1 (which was apparently because they weren't used to ties being decided by coin-flip, and wanting to avoid mixing rules between forums even though the other one they post on is tie-happy, which I found a bit odd). There's a lot of the kills, and why there would be 3 of them - ie are they vig, or different factions, as they say that webby implying that there could be two scum factions is suspicious, as it would lead to 8 scum, thus making the game unbalanced (however, they fail to take into account that the scum factions could also be working against each other - at the very least they probably don't know who is in the other faction, so could have a high chance of hitting each other, which I think should help balance things out). They defend greenlover by saying that the same logic that worked for GoP won't necessarily work for greenlover. They say that infina's thing was weird. They then tell slbub that they are at school and busy.

2)Says that entropy telling us to vote for greenlover is suspicious and full of fail, then votes for entropy. Retracts their previous statement about webby being scummy.

Thoughts - all in all, it's hard to tell. I think that them saying that 2 scum factions would be too much, while being on board with GoP being 'scum' for being in Dog's gang (when it seemed like the main 'scum' faction that is most likely would be Harry's gang, possibly followed by Dog's) so if Chandani is acknowledging that Dog's gang is scum, they should be open to the idea that Harry's could be too. I sort of wonder if Chandani was trying to protect greenlover- maybe they are in the same gang.

Phoenix-enigma (1 post) : Seems to have forgotten that they were in a game. Says that the 3 NKs means that they can't all be scum, and so it must be balanced somehow, which may come in handy for role claiming later. Says that they think infina's message may be indicative of a jester, or something similar, as it's main purpose seems to be to make them look suspicious. Says that they think greenlover doesn't seem to be suspicious, and says that lorenz jumping on the wagon seemed a bit weak.

Thoughts - there's not much to say really, other than them picking up on the fact that Lorenz voted greenlover as well. Personally, if you were going to pick up on someone going on the greenlover bandwagon, it should have been webby for basically following behind boomfrog (aat least Lorenz had a reason other than greenlover being scummy D1 - the voting for a lurker after being told lurkers would be modkilled was odd).

Off the three of them, I think that phoenix enigma has been the worst - now that I'm paying more attention, they didn't even vote (Roadie-rich - I apologise for not noticing that earlier, and only picking up on you when you'd already said that you were busy). Greenlover has given us some extra stuff today, so I'm will to let them off for now. Chandani has been acting like a confused player, but I'll remain suspicious until we get a lot more content out of them.

Vote: PhoenixEnigma
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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby roband » Thu Nov 03, 2011 5:06 pm UTC

Deadline: 1 week and 4 hours from this post. If anyone doesn't post in the next 60 hours (or goes 60 hours without posting - that's 2 and a half days) they will be modkilled.
Time to get serious!

Thanks

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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby Angua » Thu Nov 03, 2011 5:16 pm UTC

Also, reading through roadie-rich's post made me realise something - infina never answered what they meant by BF giving away his faction yesterday. It was asked by mpolo and myself, and then got lost in the discussion about bodyguards and greenlover.
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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby RoadieRich » Thu Nov 03, 2011 8:59 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:RoadieRich - welcome back to active posting. Some errors in the various arguments have been pointed out (a bodyguard wouldn't be expected to protect against a lynch), but in general a solid post.
Yeah, I missed that he died from lynching.

Angua wrote:When saying that Entropy must be lying, they missed the important point that entropy voted for them mid-day, which would seem to suggest a day action, which greenlover would probably not be immune to.
I'm not sure what to make of this: that does seems something quite major to miss, so either the claim is at least part true, or GL just didn't bother reading properly. If it was a false ability-claim, you'd think claiming ability to day actions would have been more useful. While I wouldn't be opposed to a GL lynch just to clean this whole mess up, I'm still of the opinion that there's better lynches today.

Especially when slbub's last post, agreeing with my sacrifice theory, almost read as if slbub was trying as hard as he could to make links between him and me.
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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby _infina_ » Fri Nov 04, 2011 12:47 am UTC

roband, I would like to request replacement if it is available. I have a final tomorrow, a term paper due in the next week, and a chance to get some practice stuff in for the CCNA exam.
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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby mpolo » Fri Nov 04, 2011 8:37 am UTC

These "post or else" threats always come right after I've made a big post. But there is still a lot to see here.

I concur that there were probably more kills floating around than what actually came to pass. From the flavor, roleblockers are probably more likely than doctors. Most of the obvious role-blocker types tend to be "anti-town", though, as I could see Chris or Barry or some thug belonging to Rory's or Dog's faction easily in such a role.

It is at least somewhat interesting that no information whatsoever has come out about Nick's gifts. I am presuming that different people get them each night, so there would be at least two people who know something more about them. The fact that no one has said anything about them would lead me to think that the "gifts" have been in the anti-town direction.
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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby roband » Fri Nov 04, 2011 9:07 am UTC

_infina_ wrote:roband, I would like to request replacement if it is available. I have a final tomorrow, a term paper due in the next week, and a chance to get some practice stuff in for the CCNA exam.

A final what? Yeah sure, if I can't find a replacement by the time your 60 hours is up, I'll have to modkill you.

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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby greenlover » Fri Nov 04, 2011 9:27 am UTC

I'm going to be quite busy for the next couple of days, so I better get my post in now, I guess.

BoomFrog wrote:@GL: So you are all individual survivors? If you die you lose or just one member of your group has to survive for you to win?

The latter. I can't post the exact wording of my winning condition, but only one of our members needs to survive until the game is over for me and my fellow gang members to win.

I'm not sure if there is anything to say about slbub's vote, except that I would think entropy would have figured out a better way than getting himself lynch o prevent me from being lynched? He seems like a better player than that.

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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby webby » Fri Nov 04, 2011 11:05 am UTC

Here's some general (brief) thoughts on the players in the game:

1. infina - modkilled or replaced most likely. I think he's pretty scummy, but not going to bother analysing if he's going to get modkilled anyway.

2. RoadieRich - relatively inactive. Recent post is better. Possible same faction as mpolo (this is just a hunch based off the way he talks about mpolo in a couple of posts). Thinks Dog's Gang is neutral, which seems to be in opposition to what most people think (I'm flavourblind). Thinks that slbub, greenlover and infina are scummy. I agree, but they're the three easy target - there's nothing new or controversial here. Neutral to slightly townie for knowing the win condition.

3. greenlover - I've said plenty about greenlover already. I have no idea whether to believe the survivor claim or not - it seems slightly convenient given that it's the most pro-town explanation for what he was being accused of. So I'm going to hold off on drawing a conclusion now and look for scummier players.

5. Lorenz - looks pretty townie. Day 1 early vote for GoP. Day 2 good content and pretty active. Has gone a bit lurky now.

6. DaBigCheez - hasn't really done anything to stand out. The analysis post seems decent and the votes and FOSes have generally been in the right places. Slightly on the town side of neutral.

7. BoomFrog - I reckon he's town. Good content + the right win condition.

9. slbub - Better than usual. Unless he's one of those players who puts more effort in as scum, I'd say he's been acting like he normally does only more helpful to town and is therefore probably town.

11. Angua - If greenlover's gang exists, I'd guess she was a member of it. This is based on her second post, where she speculates that 'Or, a member of the gang must survive until the end in order for the group to win, but that doesn't necessarily mean that that group would be against town.' Actually, that makes me believe greenlover a bit more. The only problem is that Angua did vote for greenlover on day 1 and it tied the votes right before deadline. Has been attacking GoJoe all game, which is good.

That's all that I feel like doing right now - I'll do the other four players tomorrow.

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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby roband » Fri Nov 04, 2011 3:11 pm UTC

FAOT replaces infina with immediate effect.

edit: Starting now, poor grammar is enough to get you modkilled ;)

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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby ForAllOfThis » Fri Nov 04, 2011 3:25 pm UTC

Well if thats the case, I'm not going to be alive for much longer. I'll have a skim read of the thread upto day three, then a more in-depth review of today.

Mod: How up-to-date is the alive/dead player list?

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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby roband » Fri Nov 04, 2011 3:30 pm UTC

Now that I put you in it, completely up to date.

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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby Mavketl » Fri Nov 04, 2011 4:53 pm UTC

Just a heads-up, or two actually:

1) I will be out of town on most of Saturday and part of Sunday. I'll definitely get another post in before that, but then I'll be quiet for a little while.
2) Just in case this day will go a lot faster than I anticipate, I think I might as well get this out of the way now: I might look a little scummy after N3. Give me time to explain before jumping on me. (And no, explaining this now would defeat the point) (And yes, this reminds me of AtKM too, but it's not the same thing, I promise :P )
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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby ForAllOfThis » Fri Nov 04, 2011 7:39 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
RoadieRich wrote:My win condition is the elimination of aggressive factions - i.e. those with a kill.
Ding ding ding! Congratulations, you are one of the lucky few actual town.


It wouldn't surprise me if roband provided scum with an example town PM / win condition for false claims (or at least provided them if asked). In the games I've modded, I have always provided an example PM to scum players so not to get caught out by win condition claims. For that reason, I think we should be wary about giving RR a completely free pass based on answering that question. Although if GL turns out to be Harry or Dogs gang, I would think that it's likely these weren't provided (and thus I would be more inclined to use this logic as evidence that RR is town).

If it seems they weren't provided I would be looking at mpolo next, based on some of his day one posts that caught my eye. He was the first one to suggest that each gang might have two rivals and one non-rival gang. I don't think this reasoning fits with initally knowing towns win condition, and is probably more reflective of the win condition he recieved (eliminate X & Y's gang maybe?). GoP dropped a similar scumtell at the start of the game (in which he suggested there were 4 NK's) which turned into a scum lynch.

I think one person in GL's independent gang should come forward to back up his story. GL has claimed night immunity (which I believe) but that means he can't be investigated which I don't like. We could either lynch the other gang member to confirm his story, hope that we have an investigation power or hope that the claimant draws a NK.

This is a very good strategy if you are telling the truth greenlover because people will have no reason to lynch you and you're (happy roband?) NK immune, giving your entire faction an easy win (even if it means sacrificing one member). If you're lying (and a large part of me suspects you are), it's great for us because we get you and a scum buddy as confirmed scum. At the very least, I see no downside for your faction so I'm going to view no claim as either meaning there is no-one else and you're an anti-town independent, or an attempt not to compromise a scum buddy.

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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby mpolo » Fri Nov 04, 2011 9:22 pm UTC

My speculation on Day One was based on my interpretation of the word "aggressive" -- I thought that maybe each group had groups that wanted to destroy it, and so were aggressive. As I indicated some time on Day 2, I have since come to the conclusion that "aggressive" most likely means "having a kill".

Since there are some people who didn't seem to know what the win condition was, I don't think that everyone had access to the "townie" condition. I worry, however, that too many people seem to be likely town at the moment, especially considering that no one from Harry's gang has been found; that might indicate that there is some sort of division between the various "townies".

I suppose Roadie Rich could have made a good guess on the wording of the win condition, although I believe he is the first to have brought up the word "aggressive".
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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby webby » Sat Nov 05, 2011 5:44 am UTC

14. PhoenixEnigma - two posts the whole game and hasn't voted at all. Suspicious of Lorenz, not suspicious of greenlover. Not much else to go on.

15. mpolo - assumes that some groups can coexist. Most of the speculation seems reasonable from the point of view of town. Votes are in the right place. Is going dangerously close to breaking the rules in his last couple of posts - I'm already not that happy with the game turning into 'who has a role PM that's worded the same as mine?'. But having said that, it does make me think he's town.

18. Mavketl - first to attack the people who were wondering whether there were good guys in the game. I'm not of the opinion that this in itself is townie - I think that as scum the safest move would be to assume there is a traditional town faction, because it's a good way of looking town. Minor tells of being in the greenlover/Angua gang from her day 1 statement - 'We generally* want to eliminate the factions that control kills, no? I think that's something that even not-100%-town factions (like the example Angua just mentioned) could get behind' and from the way she didn't really follow up her early attack on greenlover.

19. Chandani - I get the overall impression that she's either scum or part of the survivor gang. Vote for entropy gives a little support for the survivor theory. Lurkery.

Overall:
Townie - Lorenz, Boomfrog, slbub, mpolo
Neutral - RoadieRich, DaBigCheez, Angua, Mavketl
Scummy - infina/FOAT, greenlover, Chandani

Lurkers - PhoenixEnigma, Chandani, RoadieRich, Lorenz
Possible survivors - greenlover, Angua, Mavketl, Chandani

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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby Mavketl » Sat Nov 05, 2011 9:28 am UTC

I guess that shows that _infina_ had something against greenlover because of his role rather than because he was being standard strange _infina_. At least yesterday it made sense to desperately cling to a gl-lynch if you are part of Rory's gang, I don't even know what this is coming from today.

I do think that FAOT has a good point in saying that the 'knowing the magic win condition words' is not necessarily an accurate indication of alignment. It's easily faked, especially since the townie win condition is one that is fairly standard for games like this. It's something to keep in mind, but we shouldn't let it blind us.
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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby Angua » Sat Nov 05, 2011 10:53 am UTC

I can see why webby thinks I'm in greenlover's gang due to my rolespec, however - I'm not, and so I can't confirm anything they're saying. I made that speculation because it made sense at the time if you're going to have lots of gangs and them not all be mafia. I guess it's possible (if greenlover is lying) that they thought my idea was a good idea. I certainly agree with FaoT that someone in greenlover's gang should corroborate their story. If both greenlover and a second person say they are in the gang, then we lynch the second person, and leave greenlover alive if they check out so that their gang gets an overall win. Greenlover could then also tell us the identify of anyone else in the gang so that we don't lynch them. That way, even though the second person got lynched, they are still assuring a win for their faction overall.
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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby ForAllOfThis » Sat Nov 05, 2011 11:23 am UTC

Mavketl wrote:I guess that shows that _infina_ had something against greenlover because of his role rather than because he was being standard strange _infina_.


Actually no, I just don't believe his claim one bit (doesn't fit with the flavour of the game well) and I've offered him a chance to prove me wrong. I find it strange that you didn't comment on the actual strategy I provided, and instead you've decided to redirect the focus on my role. Makes me think you might be in the same gang as him, or at least know something that the rest of us doesn't.

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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby PhoenixEnigma » Sat Nov 05, 2011 3:41 pm UTC

I have been lurking a lot - I tend to do that the first couple days, it seems. Too much confusion and not enough pieces of the puzzle for me to find really interesting, perhaps.

Now, though, there's a couple things I could talk about. Nick the Greek, for one, or what happened to at least one of the kills, for another. I could possibly shed some light on GL's claim - and if I'm right, it's a bold one. On the other hand, I'm in a curious position myself, and would like to have a little fun, so lets forget that for now.

One thing that jumps out at me right now is Angua, though. Vote counts and activity summaries are a good way to look busy without saying much, but by D3 there should be a lot else to go from. And if you're voting for a lurker then, I think it's a way to get a safe vote on the table without tipping your hand too much. Of course, I've got a lot of suspicions of people for various things - isn't it odd how RR just happened to claim the win condition already accepted as town a couple days back? And BoomFrog is willing to accept that without question - which gives me a second reason to be curious about them, too (though they have some interesting points regarding _infina_/FOAT). slbub, by the way, seems to be in the same boat as Angua - and RR has mentioned it before, too, earlier today, and yet slbub's doing the same thing again.

That's enough to tip it, in my mind.

Vote: slbub


Oh, one last thing. Anyone good with ciphers?
Ah, hwnsrfbuxayqozs. Dwu taam mmnfoep tt jrqap uy oiuped. A xpaye nb wulq vof tjtl koz inktmqns uxmfgl. Nv fmcy, Q jgsy eaztjl ta hfde m lnbtxe rwrq fzv. Wty jtsq wtclp I xbixl gm iz tmm gmmj?
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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby RoadieRich » Sat Nov 05, 2011 7:32 pm UTC

PhoenixEnigma wrote:Oh, one last thing. Anyone good with ciphers?
Ah, hwnsrfbuxayqozs. Dwu taam mmnfoep tt jrqap uy oiuped. A xpaye nb wulq vof tjtl koz inktmqns uxmfgl. Nv fmcy, Q jgsy eaztjl ta hfde m lnbtxe rwrq fzv. Wty jtsq wtclp I xbixl gm iz tmm gmmj?

Either it's not vingere, the punctuation isn't directly copied from the original, or "hwnsrfbuxayqozs" doesn't represent any of the 15-letter words in /usr/share/dict/words. "tmm gmmj" looks like it should say "too soon", but that doesn't give us a usable key.
73, de KE8BSL loc EN26.

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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby mpolo » Sat Nov 05, 2011 9:07 pm UTC

The two-letter "tt" and the four different 1-letter words "A", "Q", "m" and "I" seem to me to indicate that it isn't a simple cipher, at least, or it isn't English. The long word at the beginning could be a name, but we don't have anybody with 15 letters: PhoenixEnigma is 13 and ForAllOfThis is 12.

Is this something you received in connection with this game?
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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby RoadieRich » Sat Nov 05, 2011 9:24 pm UTC

RoadieRich wrote:Either it's not vingere

EBWOP: not vingere with an English key.
Or I missed the key scanning through the list by eye.
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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby mpolo » Sat Nov 05, 2011 10:01 pm UTC

Playing around with an autosolver, I got something almost readable, and someone who knows more about these vinegere things should be able to get a lot farther. Trying a 5-letter key, the online solver I tried came up with ITFIA as the word (unlikely, I know), and this text:

So, conkyatuphtiorz. You lhve meuageh ao brihk my gpphev. H shaql it wmsl nox aell cvu ancahink bsefys. In fejt, I jyzt waraed ts oave e sittpl mori mun. Wlf elsi doulh P stips be ir ahe gete?


Which isn't right, but there are so many tempting patterns there:

So, ?. You ? messages to break my ?. I shall ... not tell ... In fact, I just wanted to have a little more fun. Why else should I be ....?

Any ideas?
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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby mpolo » Sat Nov 05, 2011 10:09 pm UTC

The code is MAFIA:

OH, CONGRATULATIONS. YOU HAVE MANAGED TO BREAK MY CIPHER. A SHAME IT WILL NOT TELL YOU ANYTHING USEFUL. IN FACT I JUST WANTED TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE FUN. WHY ELSE WOULD I STILL BE IN THE GAME?

Thanks so much for that PhoenixEnigma. I'm tempted to vote on the basis of your having wasted my time… :evil:
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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby Chandani » Sat Nov 05, 2011 11:08 pm UTC

Quick post to say that I'm working on an analysis. Will be able to actually post stuff coherently then.

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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby RoadieRich » Sat Nov 05, 2011 11:33 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:The code is MAFIA:

OH, CONGRATULATIONS. YOU HAVE MANAGED TO BREAK MY CIPHER. A SHAME IT WILL NOT TELL YOU ANYTHING USEFUL. IN FACT I JUST WANTED TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE FUN. WHY ELSE WOULD I STILL BE IN THE GAME?

Thanks so much for that PhoenixEnigma. I'm tempted to vote on the basis of your having wasted my time… :evil:

Huh, my dictionary seems to be missing plurals.
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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby PhoenixEnigma » Sun Nov 06, 2011 1:51 am UTC

mpolo wrote:The code is MAFIA:

OH, CONGRATULATIONS. YOU HAVE MANAGED TO BREAK MY CIPHER. A SHAME IT WILL NOT TELL YOU ANYTHING USEFUL. IN FACT I JUST WANTED TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE FUN. WHY ELSE WOULD I STILL BE IN THE GAME?

Thanks so much for that PhoenixEnigma. I'm tempted to vote on the basis of your having wasted my time… :evil:

Go right ahead....just think why I might do something like that, though :wink:
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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby Chandani » Sun Nov 06, 2011 3:48 am UTC

I've only finished three out of the however remaining people are here...
2. RoadieRich
Spoiler:
14 posts.
Day 1
1.Confirming
2.Apologizes for lurking. Not sure how much use flavour will be. Thinks that if there are four factions, they would be opposed to each other and would try to work with 'unaligned players'.
3. Thinks that it was possible that GoP's statement could be an attempt to hide lack of knowledge about kills. Thinks that more than four kills could be possible, though some could be one shots.
Day 2
1.Checks in.
2. Apolgizes for lurking.
3. Explains reasons for lurking.
Day 3
1. Posts content! Lots of stuff here. Points mentioned:
a. Didn't like Lorenz's FOSing of everyone who didn't vote
b. Doesn't follow Greenlover lynch push
c. Thinks slbub was being defensive, seems to imply that he thought more people would die, called out by Lorenz; lurker votes during modkill fear time
d. Doesn't like infina's breadcrumbs, think they are scummy; infina seems to be using classic diversion technique
e. Thinks bodyguards take the bullets.
f. Comments on Entropy: somehow got info when had no powers, claimed lyncher but turned up scum. Doesn't think it makes much sense, could have been a diversion to save greenolver.
g. Thinks people should look into Gojoe voters, since he turned up dead and was a part of Dog's gang
h. Doesn't like Angua's post start of Day 3, seems to follow scummy pattern
i. Doesn't get BoomFrog's assertion that Webby is most likely town
2. Comments on length of said post
3. Wants to look at slbub, infina and greenlover
4. Says win condition is to eliminate aggressive factions (those with a kill). Thinks greenlover's night immunity is too convenient. Votes slbub (above reasons+fourth on bandwagon), FOS infina, IGMEOY greenlover.
5. Acknowledges that he did not realize Entropy was lynched. Agrees with Angua that GL claiming Entropy is lying when he voted mid-day when GL would not be immune, so claim is either partially true or was GL's reading comprehension fail. Isn't opposed to GL lynch, but thinks better options, like slbub, who agreed to sacrifice theory (not sure what this is referencing to...)
6, 7, 8: Related to PE's fail cipher. Not a vingere (in English!), dictionary does not have plurals.
Conclusion: Bad lurker first two days, has been posting good content since then. Neutral (because of past lurking)
9. slbub
Spoiler:
19 posts.
Day 1
1. Confirm. Some rolespec: 13 known characters plus 6 unknown. Thinks Nick is involved, 2 hired guns from Barry possible.
2. Nick the Greek's gifts could be guns, thus kills
3. People should look up the movie on youtube
4. Mafia takes place before killings; alternative ending
5. Doesn't know why Nick the Greek would give out microwaves or phones
6. Understands why phones would be useful, but doesn't know why Nick would give them out
7. Realizes Nick isn't a playable character
Night 1
8. Votes for GoP since first post looks scummy, but also looks like an independent as well. Votes GoP (after lynch...)
9. Realizes mistake.
Day 2
1. Explains why there were posts at night. Thinks there are roleblockers and doctors since there were only three kills. Thinks the primary bodyguard would take the first bullet, secondary second bullet, but doctors could keep Rory immortal if they protected bodyguards. Doesn't think BF's vote is out of place but is a bit before analysis.
2. Expalins that thought one-shot referred to kills only, and not to other abilities.
3. Votes PE since he predicted Lataro's death, plus has been lurking, though the thing with Lataro could have been a coincidence.
4. Asks if modkill rule was still in play.
5. Asks if Lenny was black guy who got Nick drinks when he visited Rory.
6. Thinks Chandani has been playing badly since overemphasis of flavour blindness and fishing for information, plus the GoP incident. Unvotes, votes Chandani.
7. Weighs in on Entropy. Thinks there are three options: could be vanilla crew (which I'm interpreting as being scum going for town, so that crew would be lynched on day 3, but only vanilla, Entropy could have found scum but GL making excuses (but then Entropy should tell town), trying to scare GL. Would say more after modkills. Unvotes Chandani, replaces with FOS after response about posting issues. Thinks still is scummy but not as much as before.
8. Asks for time of deadline. Thinks Entropy is scummy since GL has given information (even though he doesn't think all parts of the claim is true, mainly Winston's gang and name, but night immunity is truthful) and Entropy hasn't. Therefore, GL "is actually giving us something to try and prove himself worthy of life, entropy is not" (I couldn't help but quote that. It's an awesome quote.
Day 3
1.Thinks RR is scumhunting, happy to see content. Thinks about Entropy's motives. If Entropy was lyncher, didn't make sense to claim what he did, since GL would most likely be lynched. Therefore, Entropy was probably trying to draw the vote away from GL since he might have had a one shot and thus became vanilla and thus was not useful. Asks mod if we would learn of used up abilities. Thinks GL is a roleblocker since lack of kills last night and taking out people who have no powers doesn't explain drop in kills. Votes GL, FOSes PE for lurking.
2. Not buying survivor gang until there is proof. Says argument could be made that one should have turned up by now, but since Harry's gang hasn't turned up yet, not a very good argument.
Conclusion: slbub has been all over the place. First he thinks one thing, then he thinks another. He makes a bunch of posts, but a good amount of them are one-liners and not filled with content. The swing in opinion over GL and Entropy is amazing, and I have no idea how he's supporting the idea that GL is a roleblocker (maybe all the kills were directed at GL and he's night immune), or the existence of them in general when he first said it. I mean, he says he doesn't trust GL all the way... and then votes for Entropy. What. Scummy.
14. PhoenixEnigma
Spoiler:
5 posts.
Day 1
1. Confirms
2.Thinks there would be a lot of death, but not many NKs. Maybe some deaths situational? Barry could be torturer. Thinks lines would be drawn easily with distinctive groups, no contradictory win conditions (like Dune). Agrees with Mav that even though characters grey, obvious protagonists. Thinks four friends good guys, doesn't like people who think there are no clear town. Points out the fact that Nick the Greek's gift must be used. Lataro on watch list for excessive FOSing, thinks "Vote or GTFO" adds to wine (when compared to past actions). But since it's Lataro, gives a pass. BF implicity claims town, against GL. Would have voted for GL, but didn't to force himself to vote.
Day 2
1. Comments on lurking. Doesn't think all the kills could be in the hands of scum: one should probably be town-aligned. Doesn't think there would be many doctors considering flavour. Doesn't get infina's hidden message.Thinks either infina likes to spill wine or is a jester, but can't think of jester-like character. Doesn't get GL votes, but thinks Lorenz's vote was weird, gives him IGMEOY.
Day 3
1. Comments of lurking. Says could shed some light onto GL's claim, but is in 'curious position' and would like to have some fun. Doesn't like Angua's vote summaries and activity counts, and is suspicious of RR's win condition claim (claiming exactly what is considered townie at the moment), the fact that BF accepts the claim without question (but PE likes some of their thoughts on infina/FAOT), and that slbub in similar boat to Angua (mentioned earlier by RR) and is doing same actions. Votes slbub, and then post random cipher.
2. Cryptic remark about intent of cipher
Conclusion: Really bad lurker. Sad some interesting stuff, but weird almost claim+fake cipher (which wasn't as bad as infina's fake code, but still pretty weird) doesn't seem to help view. The cipher kind of links PE in my head to infina since the similarities of posting something which looks like a secret code while in reality it isn't. Lurker leaning scummy.

So, my current list of three people is... slbub>PE>RR in scumminess.

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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby DaBigCheez » Sun Nov 06, 2011 4:13 am UTC

PhoenixEnigma - I'm thinking about why you'd make that post, and not coming up with a whole lot :/ Not happy about the smug "look how clever I am attitude", but it doesn't seem scummy per se. Maybe jestery, but too obvious. Seems to spill wine for no net gain, so I really don't know what you're trying to prove here. Aside from trying to derail discussion to start talking about a useless code. Or trying to start discussion over a useless code, just to get our reactions. Whatever.

mpolo: Where did the "MAFIA" come from? Am I just missing a term for the type of code used when you said "the code is MAFIA"?

Will have to read back more to see what I think about _infina_'s reactions; slbub confuses me, but that's no real surprise. Honestly, not seeing all that much suspicious going on in the near past (last page or so) - I think even PE's wine over the message was probably just trying to get some discussion going, which worked, so I tip my hat.
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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby mpolo » Sun Nov 06, 2011 5:48 am UTC

These Vinegere Ciphers have key word that instructs you how to apply the Caesar Cipher on succeeding letters. I ran an automatic analysis program, asking it to find code words of length 3, 4, 5, 6, etc., to see if there were any notable patterns. Apparently the program didn't do much more than try to see if a given cipher would match normal letter distributions. That got me "Itfia" as a keyword, and a text that always had alternatively 3 good letters and 2 wrong letters. I then went into a more manual code-breaker page and played with moving letters of my incorrect keyword around until the obvious words (in particular "wanted") were correctly displayed. This got me the keyword "mafia" and the given translation.
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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby Angua » Sun Nov 06, 2011 9:27 am UTC

I am wondering if PE was trying to go over the top jestery in order to stop us from lynching them today (wine over people being jesters, sigh). I still think they're scummy. However, I want to hear from greenlover's potential teammates before I decide if I'm changing my vote.

Chandani - I feel a lot better about you after that last post. It's good to see people make an effort, unlike PE :evil:

DBC - I'm surprised that you think that PE's attempt at increasing discussion was successful - yes, we have more posts, but the most that we've got out of it is that mpolo is good at breaking codes (well done, by the way). They have been a terrible lurk for the entire game, and when they finally write a post after being called out on it, they give us very little content (the 'enough to tip it' remark sounded like they were doing the bare minimum without being modkilled), plus the cipher. I personally think they just decided to copy infina because they either a) thought it was a good way to either get killed as a jester, b) get people scared to lynch you in case you are a jester, or c) they were bored (probably because they haven't been putting in any effort all game) and thought that would be funny.
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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby DaBigCheez » Sun Nov 06, 2011 5:39 pm UTC

Angua wrote:DBC - I'm surprised that you think that PE's attempt at increasing discussion was successful - yes, we have more posts, but the most that we've got out of it is that mpolo is good at breaking codes (well done, by the way). They have been a terrible lurk for the entire game, and when they finally write a post after being called out on it, they give us very little content (the 'enough to tip it' remark sounded like they were doing the bare minimum without being modkilled), plus the cipher. I personally think they just decided to copy infina because they either a) thought it was a good way to either get killed as a jester, b) get people scared to lynch you in case you are a jester, or c) they were bored (probably because they haven't been putting in any effort all game) and thought that would be funny.


That was basically my initial opinion as well, but I grudgingly started feeling like it might have done something useful, until mpolo clarified his response as to how the code worked - yeah, not particularly useful.
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Re: [L] Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels Mafia - Day 3

Postby ForAllOfThis » Sun Nov 06, 2011 5:54 pm UTC

PE is looking a lot like a jester. Problem I'm having is I know PE's a fairly experienced player and should be a lot more subtle. Also, why wait till D3 to throw yourself into the firing line? It doesn't even make sense from a scum perspective, no-one seems to want to lynch PE. I'm just genuinely confused. Unless it's to distract a lynch from someone else?

I should have probably read all infinas posts, where is this fake code that he posted?


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