Amy's Surprise Game [OVER - Sapphire Scrooge Win]

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Mavketl
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby Mavketl » Wed Nov 30, 2011 8:15 pm UTC

Thanks, roband.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby b.i.o » Thu Dec 01, 2011 2:17 am UTC

A bit off-topic, but I'm going to be en route to London tomorrow, so I likely will not be able to post much for the next two days-ish.

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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby ElectricHaze » Thu Dec 01, 2011 2:27 am UTC

I had a huge presentation today, and just got back to my place and it is late, and I'm falling into a food coma from eating a bunch of McRibs cause I stopped in a McDonalds on my way back and that sandwich is not normally available, but I like it so much and so I ate five of them and it was delicious, but now I am tired and lazy, so I do not feel up for any analysis or super awesome insights right now.

Though I will add that someone mentioned a WoW ability/class and I did not see it answered. You are referring to simply the class: Mage. They have a spell: Polymorph, which turns people into sheep, and they cannot do anything except wander about being sheep until they are hit with an attack or spell or something. I do not really think this has anything to do with this game, and what happened to roband, though I do worry that breaking the effect might have some sort of effect on roband, Adam, or both.

Anyways, off to watch a couple mindless shows then fall asleep. I will post better stuff tomorrow hopefully.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby Krong » Thu Dec 01, 2011 4:59 am UTC

@Mavketl: Sorry, but I'm going to talk about your list some more. :P Not talking about the "FAOT is not scummy etc. etc." side, but the "FAOT is scummy etc. etc." side.

As far as I can tell, the only person who expressed actual suspicion of FAOT being scum was GoP, with b.i.o. saying that he thinks FAOT is a jester, but would not be surprised with a townie mistake. I didn't say I thought FAOT was scummy; I said his revealing his restriction thing helps anti-town more than it helps town. Technically, I didn't even say that much, just explained where I thought b.i.o. was coming from, but I do agree with b.i.o. on that. If I were to guess, though, I'd lean towards this being a townie (/indy) mistake. My experience has been that town is more inclined by default to publicly share more information than is necessarily good. On the flip side, if he's lying scum, scum would be more inclined to stay out of the spotlight rather than jump straight into it. (Lataro's efforts to change that culture in the fora notwithstanding.)

Kinda not picking up on much else yet so far. Something about GoP's posts has pinged me slightly... there's not much there yet, but his suspicion of FAOT felt more like a "that guy looks weird" than a "I believe that guy is scummy." Hmm.

Oh, one thing to keep in mind: it's going to be a lot harder to find mafia members based on how good they are at scumhunting, because two scum factions will legitimately want to be hunting each other. (I feel like this game up in some other game... I'll try to figure out what I'm remembering here.)
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Dec 01, 2011 8:13 am UTC

Mav, Roband: Where you restricted from saying the name of your animal?

If we have a third animal "claim" I don't think we should help the person out. (watch me get hit with it now... : / )

Either the post restriction is set by the mod or by a player. If it is a player then they probably get a benifit from it getting cured otherwise they wouldn't bother giving it out. If the person giving it out was town they could just claim and then we could decide to help them or not based on thier claim. Since no one is claiming, (and the mod would likely design things to make the polymorpher not want to claim) I'm guessing they are scum or at best indy.

It's possible the polymorpher is town but their benifit depends on sublety, like they get to cop the people who break the spell or something. Seems unlikely though.

And anyway, if it's going to stay on someone, there's not much point in rotating it around.

So, in conclusion, Mav, since you probably would think of the above, why did you ask for it to be broken, or rather not ask that it be left alone? What's the flaw in my logic?
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby Angua » Thu Dec 01, 2011 9:46 am UTC

I must say I found that turning into barnyard animals thing really weird. It must have some sort of hidden meaning, or what's the point? Provided being an animal doesn't lead to a restriction on the amount of content that you're allowed to post, it shouldn't matter too much. Roband's quickness for helping out Mav means that either 1) he truly believed that nothing would happen to him for it, or b) he was faking the entire time, and then put the spell on Mav himself (maybe the person giving the post restriction gets to cop the other person, but the downside is that they know that something happened to them, or maybe he just knew it would help make us trust him a bit more). You can't be too paranoid in this game ;)
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby webby » Thu Dec 01, 2011 9:58 am UTC

Krong wrote:Oh, one thing to keep in mind: it's going to be a lot harder to find mafia members based on how good they are at scumhunting, because two scum factions will legitimately want to be hunting each other. (I feel like this game up in some other game... I'll try to figure out what I'm remembering here.)


This happened in Mafia + Werewolf. Plenty of people (including myself) considered roband and a-wan, who were the mafia, townie for a long time because they were good with finding werewolves. In that game it turned out ok because we lynched the two werewolves on the first two days and by that time we had two confirmed townies at 3-2, so it was just a matter of finding the two players who were linked. I think it actually helped town that the two scumteams were hunting each other, because everyone was looking for scum - there was nobody trying to lynch townies.

Overall, in this game scumhunting is not necessarily a town tell, but we can still get a fair bit out of links between players and you would still think scum would care slightly less about who gets lynched (as long as it's not a teammate). So I think most of the usual scumtells still apply.

Once again I must apologise for my lack of posting, I'm busy, but I'm going to try to make sure I post some content at least once each real life day. Hopefully tomorrow I'll have time for a proper readthrough and my thoughts on what's scummy so far.

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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby t1mm01994 » Thu Dec 01, 2011 10:50 am UTC

My posts will be all over the place for the rest of this day, with lots of apologies following it. This is nothing I can help out, and it will last for the rest of the day unless I get a break.
My attempt at posting coherently:
On the debate of Roband's restriction: I believe him that there's nothing behind it, that it's just a "complete thing X" and you're just another player from there. My role is not involved in there, but it's similar. The FAOT debate has turned in so many pro- and con- players that it's by now impossible to say They are defending him, they're scum! or something similar for attacking.
Current persons that act most scummy: this is only a "since I've been asked to do so, I'll start pointing fingers", no real suspicions at the moment, but still.
- Mav. At first, there's nothing, and after Roband was set free, suddenly she's a cow. It strikes me as odd to not have posted it before, while there was a person in a similar role trying to get himself set free...
- greenlover. Only seen 1 post so far, which didn't contribute that much.. Either scum, lurking or just really busy in real life. No way of figuring that one out, but hey, I was asked to point fingers.

Another option than Mav being scummy, we got ourselves somewhat of a independent role, farmer... Roband stopped, discussed his freedom with Mav, next thing, Mav was a cow. I'm still not entirely buying that, but saying a new farm-animal turns up in the next 24-hours (If you turn out to be a farm-animal soon, please make that clear asap), I think we should watch out for mpolo or Misnomer, as they are the only ones that posted between Roband being a sheep and Mav being a cow, not counting anyone who's involved in the release of Roband.

I got a break! :D

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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby Adam H » Thu Dec 01, 2011 3:11 pm UTC

I think it's likely that the polymorpher is Amy. I'll add to this if/when another person is "farmed".

Regardless of whether it's the mod or a player doing this to us, I think it's very likely that it's a completely harmless, pointless, mechanic that just makes the game a little more fun and gives us something to talk about. But I'd be OK with playing it safe and not freeing the animal-people. I suppose if there's even the slightest chance that freeing them means bad things will happen, then we shouldn't do it. (Unless we think good things might happen as well).

After looking back over all the posts, I find roband and t1mmy most suspicious. Roband for the way he handled his sheepness - just a lot of posts without anything useful. He could have easily given analysis and stuck some baaaa's in there. And t1mmy... well, I don't want to offend anyone... but here I go: he's been kind of dumb.

And I'll throw out that I like boomfrog and webby the most (other than wei and angua, obviously), although... hmmm... I always like them the most.
-Adam

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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby t1mm01994 » Thu Dec 01, 2011 3:59 pm UTC

I believe I had already admitted to acting stupid, so no offense taken.. For an explanation, I don't really have freedom of speech at times. It's like I speak into a well, and an echo comes back, and it's the echo you hear. I can't go into more detail, but it seems the well is being kind to me at the moment; its been a while since I had to shout in there.

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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby Mavketl » Thu Dec 01, 2011 5:22 pm UTC

t1mm01994 wrote:- Mav. At first, there's nothing, and after Roband was set free, suddenly she's a cow. It strikes me as odd to not have posted it before, while there was a person in a similar role trying to get himself set free...
I didn't have it before. I got a PM saying that I had to act like a cow until someone said that I was a cow.

Why do you not believe the claim that both roband and I have made now (that it was a thing that happened to us)? Or rather, why do you believe his but not mine? Did you overlook the posts in which we explained what happened? And clearly I'm not acting like this for all the townie cred it's getting me. :P

@BoomFrog: I was not explicitly restricted to do anything, except "act like a cow". I have no reason to believe that I wasn't allowed to say 'cow'. I asked for it to be broken because I didn't think that I could manage to post properly while acting like a cow, and because I don't really see how it's detrimental to town. It's possible that someone can cop me now, and that's not a bad thing. I'm going to assume there isn't a serial killer (or scum) who can only kill people who were farm animals and then got cured - but if there is, it should be pretty obvious pretty soon. It's possible that the player who is giving these out benefits from having them cured - but you don't know that and neither do I. They might as well be able to use their ability on someone who still has animal-itis, just as likely as using it on people who have been cured. I don't know why you're assuming that breaking a post restriction is most likely bad for town or even why it's worse than not breaking it.
BoomFrog wrote:And anyway, if it's going to stay on someone, there's not much point in rotating it around.
1) Why would it always be on someone? That's possible, but it's hardly the only possibility.
2) Yes, there is a point in rotating it around, because it's bloody hard to post proper content when you have to pretend you're a [insert farm animal here]. So I'd rather have everyone be an animal for a short while than one person completely unable to contribute for an entire game day.

Basically I don't really understand where you're getting your assumptions, because assuming pretty much the opposite of all of that seems just as feasible to me. :P


I do think it's interesting how this animal-itis progressed from roband to me. If there is a third person to get it, we should definitely try to define the 'transfer mechanism' if there is one.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby ElectricHaze » Thu Dec 01, 2011 6:17 pm UTC

Interesting, I would have expected the animal-itis to go to the person who had cured roband if it traveled at all. I guess that is too simplistic for this game. I guess my question now would be if it is related to the last case of it being cured, or if it is happening on a timer, like if we had not cured roband would Mav still have been a cow? This needs further testing should it continue to crop up.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby roband » Thu Dec 01, 2011 6:29 pm UTC

Sorry for no content guys, been a bad day, pulled a muscle and can barely move my head :|
Will try to post tomorrow morning.

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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby ForAllOfThis » Thu Dec 01, 2011 8:14 pm UTC

I share Angua's feeling that I wouldn't put it past Mav or Roband to fake the restriction to make themselves 'look more townie', and might even control the power themselves. It'll be interesting to see if we see another case today, and if not, how many (or if any at all) present tomorrow.

@Mav/Roband: Did you ask if you could use your abilities/role powers in animal form?

If not then it might be a special roleblock. If so, then I can't imagine that the controller will benefit from the condition being cured.

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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Dec 01, 2011 9:31 pm UTC

Sorry I havent been posting much.

I'm going to ignore the animal thing for now. It seems like a minor hinderance power, but we know it can be gotten rid of without known consequence, but it might be an indy's win condition. If it is, I'm happy for them to get it. Assuming its not doing anything worse than making people act like animals. Hm, could it be telling that Rob and Mav were the first 2 'polymorphed?'

Looking through peoples posts, nothing has really jumped out at me so far. FAOT did jump out at me for both his call for long days and for advocating 3/3, but theres been nothing since then. Boomfrog seems to be acting like normal Boomfrog: being forthright, if kinda wrong. Tim seems to get things wrong alot, but thats more bad play than scum tell.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby ElectricHaze » Fri Dec 02, 2011 7:28 am UTC

Blargh, I feel bad for not posting much in my first game back in awhile, but the semester is coming to a close and I have been busy lately, but I have a super free weekend, and should be able to do some quality posting tomorrow or Saturday when I have time to really go over my notes, and spend some time thinking about all the stuff that has happened in the last four pages. Again sorry.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby roband » Fri Dec 02, 2011 10:25 am UTC

ForAllOfThis wrote:I share Angua's feeling that I wouldn't put it past Mav or Roband to fake the restriction to make themselves 'look more townie', and might even control the power themselves. It'll be interesting to see if we see another case today, and if not, how many (or if any at all) present tomorrow.

@Mav/Roband: Did you ask if you could use your abilities/role powers in animal form?

If not then it might be a special roleblock. If so, then I can't imagine that the controller will benefit from the condition being cured.


I'm not going to fake an annoying restriction like that.

I didn't ask about it affecting my main role. I was a sheep and sheep don't have any other powers, so I'd guess not though (based on the wording of the PM telling me I was a sheep).

I'm not sure why you're pushing for more about this, are you expecting a "I claim that Mav and I are now masons because we were both farmyard animals" or something? That's not the case. I've been completely honest about it, I tried to play along but wasn't expecting so much paranoia from people.

I still need to catch up on previous posts, I just saw FAOT's here and wanted to respond.

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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby roband » Fri Dec 02, 2011 11:37 am UTC

Sungura wrote:Day 1They only know two they can trust: weiyoli and Angua, who have been confirmed townies for years, as they are never under question, always under the radar. People feel safe with them.

Bold mine.
Nobody should be "never under question". And "under the radar" sounds wrong. Also you might "feel safe", doesn't mean you are safe. Taking that with a pinch of salt, on a re-read.

ForAllOfThis wrote:I'd be more inclined towards two groups of three

mpolo wrote:I would go from a working hypothesis that the Sapphires and the Purples are 3 members each.

Misnomer wrote:2 factions of 3 seems sensible to me.


What's that 'classic' thought in Mafia? Third on a lynch is scummy? How about third on an idea? Misnomer, looking at you here. With 2 people, it's discussion. 3 makes people start to consider it as likely, so scum could benefit from misleading town here. Also, no discussion of indies at this point, weiy mentioned that a bit later. Townie points to him for that.

b.i.o wrote:The confirmed town are definitely actually confirmed town. This is a non-bastard game.

I don't like this. If either bio, or one of our 'confirmed' townies is killed and flips as scum, we should consider lynching the the former/latter.

Krong looks good, nice spec on the scum numbers. But again, a bit too easy to accept that the 'confirmed' town are definitive.

EH agreed with my thoughts on those who said "2 scum groups of 3".

I turned into a sheep.

Tim thinks the numbers could be relevant - good spec, worth bearing in mind.

FAOT should have claimed/shouldn't have claimed/who really cares, it's happened now.

ElectricHaze wrote:I tend to see roband as a little suspicious most of the time, so he would probably be a good target for some sort of wine creating post restrictioning day power, assuming it's not just me.

Yep, I reckon I was an easy target to be a scapegoatsheep. Someone trying to distract from something else maybe?

Tim made a mistake and voted bio, this was later cleared up.

I'm still a sheep.

infina makes jokes about me being a sheep, but previously mentioned not being allowed to make jokes about his own role. Some sort of restriction here? I'd like clarification for sure.

Mav posts - I'm done working out if she's town or scum. See Zoo 3, where I nearly lost twenty dollars and my self respect for town. She makes a table, which adds fuel to the FAOT-fire.
AND SHE PICKS UP ON THE UNDER THE RADAR THING. I missed that first time around. I think we need to analyse this flavour, as a group.

Adam frees me. Townie helping townie? Certainly not random scum helping townie. Possibly person who gave me the restriction, wanting to look good, because they knew it was harmless?

Misnomer wrote:IGMEOY: Roband

I'm sorry, but you'll have to forgive me if I take "somebody turned me into a sheep but I'm all better now and there were no consequences" with a pinch of salt. Were you actually prohibited from discussing the game while you were a sheep, or was it just you genuinely couldn't be bothered to keep track of things?

Meh, it's OMGUSy but this is all BS. I know it, Mav now knows it.

Cows go 'boooo' in dutchland, apparently? Mav is a cow. As in, the animal, I mean, in this game. You know, not.. oh whatever, she won't be offended :D

I free Mav.

mpolo wrote:Adam H's removal of roband's restriction was mostly risky, rather than townie/scummy, as we don't know roband's alignment. If Adam turned out to be scum, that might send a sliver of suspicion at roband, but it's not especially serious at this point.

From my point of view, if he turns out to be scum, it's likely he put the restriction on me.

t1mm01994 wrote:I think we should watch out for mpolo or Misnomer, as they are the only ones that posted between Roband being a sheep and Mav being a cow, not counting anyone who's involved in the release of Roband.

Good spot. This should be considered.

Adam H wrote:I think it's likely that the polymorpher is Amy. I'll add to this if/when another person is "farmed".

Regardless of whether it's the mod or a player doing this to us, I think it's very likely that it's a completely harmless, pointless, mechanic that just makes the game a little more fun and gives us something to talk about. But I'd be OK with playing it safe and not freeing the animal-people. I suppose if there's even the slightest chance that freeing them means bad things will happen, then we shouldn't do it. (Unless we think good things might happen as well).

This is strange, because I don't think it is Amy doing it. Plus, you freed me. Not sure what this makes me think of you now.

Adam H wrote:After looking back over all the posts, I find roband and t1mmy most suspicious. Roband for the way he handled his sheepness - just a lot of posts without anything useful. He could have easily given analysis and stuck some baaaa's in there.

OMGUS. Again. I played the part. Can sheep analyse? No. Were you guys picking up on what I wanted? No. Working your way up my list here, Adam.

Mavketl wrote:And clearly I'm not acting like this for all the townie cred it's getting me. :P

My thoughts exactly.

So that's my read-through. It's probably quite a lot of text.

Misnomer and AdamH, IGMEOY. bio is also questionable for me right now.

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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby Misnomer » Fri Dec 02, 2011 12:09 pm UTC

Roband wrote:
ForAllOfThis wrote:I'd be more inclined towards two groups of three

mpolo wrote:I would go from a working hypothesis that the Sapphires and the Purples are 3 members each.

Misnomer wrote:2 factions of 3 seems sensible to me.


What's that 'classic' thought in Mafia? Third on a lynch is scummy? How about third on an idea? Misnomer, looking at you here. With 2 people, it's discussion. 3 makes people start to consider it as likely, so scum could benefit from misleading town here. Also, no discussion of indies at this point, weiy mentioned that a bit later. Townie points to him for that.

Actually, I think you'll find I mentioned indies in the post you so selectively sniped from.

I'm still disinclined to believe the farmyard thing was entirely consequence-less, but the odds of it being a cult are somewhat lessened by the fact it was Roband who apparently freed Mav - if this was a cult, I imagine that would not be allowed, for obvious reasons.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby roband » Fri Dec 02, 2011 12:30 pm UTC

Misnomer wrote:Actually, I think you'll find I mentioned indies in the post you so selectively sniped from.

So you did. I apologise.

I'm gonna be offline for a while now, 36-60 hours or so.

Vote Misnomer

as that's my current best pick and I don't want a deadline to be announced while I'm away.

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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby Gojoe » Fri Dec 02, 2011 2:37 pm UTC

Oh god. I forgot I was in this game. 4 pages to read and I am lazy. Sigh. Will catch up eventually.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby Adam H » Fri Dec 02, 2011 3:08 pm UTC

This is less of an attack on Roband and more of a defense of myself.
roband wrote:
Adam H wrote:I think it's likely that the polymorpher is Amy. I'll add to this if/when another person is "farmed".

Regardless of whether it's the mod or a player doing this to us, I think it's very likely that it's a completely harmless, pointless, mechanic that just makes the game a little more fun and gives us something to talk about. But I'd be OK with playing it safe and not freeing the animal-people. I suppose if there's even the slightest chance that freeing them means bad things will happen, then we shouldn't do it. (Unless we think good things might happen as well).

This is strange, because I don't think it is Amy doing it. Plus, you freed me. Not sure what this makes me think of you now.
Well I think it's strange that you don't think it's Amy. So there! And I freed you cause you said I'd get a reward you sack of crap! :P

roband wrote:
Adam H wrote:After looking back over all the posts, I find roband and t1mmy most suspicious. Roband for the way he handled his sheepness - just a lot of posts without anything useful. He could have easily given analysis and stuck some baaaa's in there.

OMGUS. Again. I played the part. Can sheep analyse? No. Were you guys picking up on what I wanted? No. Working your way up my list here, Adam.
No, sheep can't analyse, but they can't type/talk either. Is typing "Someone call me a sheep so I can stop pretending to be one" really that much more immersive than typing "Adam H is baaaaad because blah blah blah useful analysis blah blah blah".
-Adam

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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby mpolo » Fri Dec 02, 2011 4:26 pm UTC

I was sorely tempted to start posting "cock-a-doodle-doos" and translating them of course to "kikiriki" and such, but we don't need any more wine at present.

I think that the animal thing is probably as roband and Mav have indicated. There's really no telling if this is a fun mod antic or someone's power, though. For better or worse, we have a lull in which we can all post nomally.

I'm not really understanding the animosity between roband and AdamH.

Roband's vote is not the strongest one in the world, but he seems to be mostly wanting to make sure he has a vote on record in case Amy suddenly calls the day. I hope that that doesn't mean that he has a power to force the end of day.

For FAOT's statement that he had a requirement to keep up, we haven't really seen all that much of him, or at least he's been kind of blending in. I don't really buy that roband and Mav are trying to "build townie cred" by acting strangely.

And again I run out of time. This is getting frustrating…
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t1mm01994
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby t1mm01994 » Fri Dec 02, 2011 6:20 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:And again I run out of time. This is getting frustrating…

Care to explain that a bit?

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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby ForAllOfThis » Fri Dec 02, 2011 6:29 pm UTC

Roband wrote:I don't like this. If either bio, or one of our 'confirmed' townies is killed and flips as scum, we should consider lynching the the former/latter.


I strongly disagree. If bio flips scum anything he has said about other players is pure wine, so should mostly be ignored (as with any player). Scum could say anyone looks townie to muddy the waters, and often do. Slight logic fail on your part Roband. On top of that, if Angua or Wei were scum, then it seems unlikely that scum would be willing to tie themselves to the 'confirmed townies'.

@Mpolo: I haven't said if my requirement is related to the number of posts I make per day.

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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby mpolo » Fri Dec 02, 2011 7:17 pm UTC

t1mm01994 wrote:
mpolo wrote:And again I run out of time. This is getting frustrating…

Care to explain that a bit?


RealLife invades on Mafia. I thought I had time to post, but really only had 10 minutes. (Right now, I know I don't have time to post, so I'm not even trying till tomorrow.)
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby _infina_ » Sat Dec 03, 2011 1:54 am UTC

Okay, of all the players, I find myself the most suspicious for my mix-up between b.i.o and weiyaoli in my accusation on t1mm01994. Seeing as I know my own role, however, I look to the second most suspicious person, FOAT.

ForAllOfThis wrote:The 'let's not rush days' thing was more of a throw-away comment with it, just to bulk up the post. It doesn't give away any more information than saying 'I have a daily requirement/restriction', so let's not get fixated on it.

This sticks out here. Seem really odd to say that. Not wanting us to fixate on it. Perhaps he slipped up elsewhere in that post. So I refer back to it.

ForAllOfThis wrote:@Roband we were only pawns until we decided to group up. Under your second scenario there would be a 2/3 chance that any other person is scum (10/(17-2)), so I find it highly unlikely, mostly because the confirmed townies are even more dangerous.

Also, can I ask that we don't rush through any days? I have a daily requirement/restriction to fufill.

Why would confirmed townies be dangerous? Unless you are scum there is no reason to think that. Scum would be afraid of them if they knew that they were not in the same faction. And if the confirmed townies are a part of your faction and you know about them, then you know how dangerous they can be, as you are all scum.

They cannot be masons with him, because this would be throwing them under the bus, and I don't want to run anyone over, especially a townie.

Conclusion: FOAT is highly likely to be scum.

Vote: FOAT


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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby ForAllOfThis » Sat Dec 03, 2011 2:32 am UTC

_infina_ wrote:Why would confirmed townies be dangerous?


@Infina: Have you even read the thread?

The argument I was making was that a 5/5 scum seemed highly unlikely. The reason for that is if we were to lynch a random person, then it's highly likely that they would be scum. Factor in that we have two confirmed townies, then everyone (minus the confirmed and from my PoV) has a 2/3 chance of being scum, making the confirmed townies more powerful than in a 3/3 (or 4/4) scenario because it significantly increases the likelihood of scum being lynched (even more so with two factions working against each other, town would be the kingmaker). Therefore, they would be more dangerous to scum, than they would be in a 3/3 or 4/4 situation.

Well done for taking something out of context, then using it to poorly justify a vote.

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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby mpolo » Sat Dec 03, 2011 10:57 am UTC

I don't have the excuse of not having time, just not finding a lot to say.

About farm animals: Until we have evidence otherwise, I'm assuming this is a red herring.

tim's funny post: Seems to have been an honest misread.

FAOT: I think that infina did misunderstand his post. I suppose one could argue that the post was a bit skewed toward the "seeing how to make things fair for the scum" optic. O.K., I'll keep an eye on ForAllOfThis, but I'm not going to be throwing out a vote any time soon.

Mistrust of the "confirmed townies". Hmm... I dunno. Amy doesn't lie, but she does occasionally make posts that are 100% true, but misleading. So let's look at what she actually says:

Sungura wrote:They only know two they can trust: weiyoli and Angua, who have been confirmed townies for years, as they are never under question, always under the radar. People feel safe with them.


I guess you could read this as "they are confirmed town because we are lazy and feel safe with them, but there's actually something to fear here". Maybe it's worth using a cop on one of these. Maybe that's a waste of a cop. I'm really unsure there.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Dec 03, 2011 12:47 pm UTC

BTW, I am in Thailand for the next 9 days so don't expect much here. I'm just saying now ill only be posting a few times total during this period.

Infina your analysis of FAOT is terrible. I think you'd make a fine politician or corpse. Either way:

Vote Infina

As to the suspicion being thrown on the confirmed townies. That's crap. It says they are confirmed townies. That sentence alone is not a lie correct? It doesn't matter why they are confirmed. Unless Amy has a different definition of truth then, "each statement is a fact at the time it is said"?

If infina convinces me of his innocence then mpolo is next on my list. What was his opinion on the team distribution? I can't be arsed to look.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Dec 03, 2011 12:48 pm UTC

Ps I like Robands analysis. Misnomer is probably third on my list.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby mpolo » Sat Dec 03, 2011 1:46 pm UTC

I was responding to roband and (apparently) Mav's comment about the confirmed townies. I can sort of see someone trying to twist out of that statement, but my general opinion, which I probably didn't make clear enough, was that I don't think it very likely that the confirmed townies are not confirmed.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby mpolo » Sat Dec 03, 2011 1:47 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:If infina convinces me of his innocence then mpolo is next on my list. What was his opinion on the team distribution? I can't be arsed to look.


I was willing to go with 3 and 3 until some people said that more is more likely.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby Mavketl » Sat Dec 03, 2011 2:06 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:As to the suspicion being thrown on the confirmed townies. That's crap. It says they are confirmed townies. That sentence alone is not a lie correct? It doesn't matter why they are confirmed. Unless Amy has a different definition of truth then, "each statement is a fact at the time it is said"?
It says that they have been confirmed townies for a long time, not that they currently are.

I'm not throwing suspicion on people - I don't find either of the two 'confirmed townies' very suspicious. I just don't want it to be a huge blind spot for the entire game, so I think it's relevant to keep in mind that considering the phrasing of that flavour it's not strictly impossible that they are not town. That is all.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby Misnomer » Sat Dec 03, 2011 3:56 pm UTC

May as well get a confirmed town position list going, could be useful later...

Believes Angua and Weiyaoli are confirmed town:
Angua
Weiyaoli

bio
Krong
ElectricHaze
Gopher of Pern
BoomFrog

Wary of believing they're confirmed town (with reasons):
Misnomer (doubts about the meaning of confirmed town)
Mavketl (concerns about the flavour)
Roband (similar to Mav)

Vague:
mpolo


And I think I'm right in saying nobody else has really commented on it. Nothing jumps out from it, but as I said, could be useful later.

Incidentally, although I'm pretty sure what the answers will be, it can't help to check...
Angua: Do you believe Weiyaoli is confirmed town?
Weiyaoli: Do you believe Angua is confirmed town?


Returning to the topic of FAOT's 'daily requirement' that he needed to fulfil...
FAOT: was it you handing out the animal posting restrictions?

Infina's analysis on FAOT is shaky at best. And his comment that he found himself the most suspicious player is just plain weird. I can't decide whether its scummy or a rush job though. My instincts say the latter, but I want to see how he defends himself from FAOT and BF's criticisms.

Mpolo's coming across as somewhat vague, but then I normally get that read off of him.
Mpolo: which three players do you think are scummiest? If you had to vote now, who would you vote for?
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby mpolo » Sat Dec 03, 2011 5:34 pm UTC

I'm often somewhat vague at the start of a game because of not having any base to build off of. I want to believe that weiyaoli and Angua are town, because that would make things much easier for us. It's just that things aren't usually made that easy for us. I guess I am in the "wary" camp, but I don't plan to do anything about it unless there is other evidence.

"Confirmed town" as used in the forums generally means "everybody assumes that these people are town for a specific reason". The only thing is that there are a lot of "confirmed town" players that are not actually town for one reason or another -- like I was in Harry Potter (though there was a recruitment mechanism there). And then the reasons that we all believe that they are "confirmed town" are rather poor.

We're at the stage where I really don't have a scummy read* on anyone at all. If I were forced to vote now, I would probably be looking for a lurker, even though that wouldn't be my preferred lynch target if we can find anything else.

*I also don't really have much of a townie read on anyone. Mav seems more "Mav-ish" than she did in the last game where she was scum, so there's at least a little bit of town lean there. Unless proved otherwise, I'm thinking weiyaoli and Angua are town. I was wondering about Roband's milking his "condition" to get his post count up without much content, but he seems to be providing content now, so would be neutral to town-leaning.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby Angua » Sat Dec 03, 2011 5:45 pm UTC

I'm assuming weiyaoli is confirmed town, mainly because I know I am town. I'm open to the idea that after tonight we might want to be careful because there's the possibility of culting (however slim). However, I see why other people are being more cautious and don't immediately find them suspicious for doing so - however I do find the emphasis on it saying in the past meaning that we aren't now being a bit of a reach - I think it's more likely to mean that we are vulnerable to change if anything.

I'm not sure what to think of infina - in the other game I played with them, they did some questionable things, as well as spreading wine on purpose (and they were semi-scummish then) but it's hard to tell from one data point. I also I can see how FaoT could be seen as being a bit unclear in saying that having two confirmed townies was dangerous because of the way the stats of lynching works.

I don't really know how I'm supposed to play as confirmed town - I never feel very good at picking up when people are scum. Day 1 is always difficult as well. Personally, I find roband choosing misnomer on the basis of them being the third person to agree with the 3/3 thing the most scummy thing - other people have done odd things (that he mentions in his posts) but he chooses Misnomer for that? I realise that he won't be around to defend himself for a while, so I'm going to:

Vote: Roband

as I want him to respond to this post, and things have a tendency to get lost when you're trying to catch up on a few days' worth of mafia.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby weiyaoli » Sat Dec 03, 2011 7:00 pm UTC

Well, I do think Angua is probably confirmed town. Flavour wise I do think under the radar isn't a great thing, but I do think that being slightly wary is probably a good position to adopt, especially if there is a cult in the game (as being confirmed we are probably the most/second most likely targets for conversation).

The most suspicious person to me right now would probably be infina but I think quite a few people haven't been posting lately (including me) so I haven't got much of an impression of them at the moment. e.g. gojoe, but he's always lurky from my experience.
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby Mavketl » Sat Dec 03, 2011 7:01 pm UTC

Angua wrote:However, I see why other people are being more cautious and don't immediately find them suspicious for doing so - however I do find the emphasis on it saying in the past meaning that we aren't now being a bit of a reach - I think it's more likely to mean that we are vulnerable to change if anything.
Who is saying this?
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Re: Amy's Surprise Game [Day 1]

Postby Angua » Sat Dec 03, 2011 7:04 pm UTC

Mavketl wrote:
Angua wrote:However, I see why other people are being more cautious and don't immediately find them suspicious for doing so - however I do find the emphasis on it saying in the past meaning that we aren't now being a bit of a reach - I think it's more likely to mean that we are vulnerable to change if anything.
Who is saying this?
Mavketl wrote:It says that they have been confirmed townies for a long time, not that they currently are.
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