Hogwarts Mafia [M] - Night 5 - Insanity!

[Adam H]

You're not getting out of today without lynching one of us.

There is not a convincing argument that one of you is scum, so I think this is a rotten attitude and I'm really annoyed that everyone seems to agree with this. First, why lynch roband? He is doing exactly what he did with fearless, and after she came back town we didn't lynch him. Second, why lynch FAOT? He's in the exact same situation that fearless was in, and fearless was town.

I reread FAOT's posts and he seems quite townie. He had a key vote (fourth) on t1mm - might have been bussing but I doubt it. He was also healed on a night where there was no NK.

Roband has a confirmed town inno investigation result. And he has been playing how he normally plays, I think.

So I think you're both town, and if we find out one is town I won't advocate lynching the other. Until I get more info to go on, I'll continue thinking greenlover and MostlyNormal are scum (seriously, MN's last few posts have been absurd).

[ForAllOfThis]

This is different, because FAOT claims to have targetted me with a doctor.

Actually, I doctored mpolo and have already explained that it was a mod mistake. I've already posted about this so you need to go and read what I've actually posted, instead of just blindly insisting your right about everything.

I think Adam is the only one making any sense right now. Enough to..

Unvote

to give me some time to re-read the situation.

@Greenlover: It's funny that you mention that I'm desperately trying not to get lynched compared to roband. This is my 5th post today. Compare that to robands 15 posts. If roband really doesn't care about being lynched, why has he made triple the posts that I have? He's even said himself it's not to earn house points. I think neither of us want to be lynched, afterall the object of the game is to lynch scum, and getting yourself lynched as town is counterintuative to that object. On top of that, Adam has convinced me that a town result on one of us doesn't necessarily mean that the other one is scum. The only difference is, that I'm not lieing about 'not caring' about being lynched, whereas I believe roband might be.

[mpolo]

I forgot about fearless' town result on roband.

Unvote

There has to be some way to make sense of this whole mess.

[Mostlynormal]

on, I'll continue thinking greenlover and MostlyNormal are scum (seriously, MN's last few posts have been absurd).

Me? All of the posts of the rest of you have been absurd! This is not like the situation with fearless!

In the fearless situation we lynched her because she was in blatant contradiction with a whole house and we didn't expect any scum powers. Now we know there's probably a roleblock.

But this situation is totally different. The doctor was blocked. That means that, unlike the fearless fiasco (in which scum probably targeted FAOT, the kill didn't go through because he was protected, and then they spilled wine about the roleblock to their advantage), scum would've had to withhold the kill for us to get to this point, which is just plain stupid unless they knew that Roband was targeting a doctor, something only Roband knew.

Greenloved mentioned "crazy scum powers." For one thing: really, in a newbie friendly game? For another thing, no matter how crazy the scum powers are, unless they can actually eavesdrop on Roband's power submission, Roband was the only one who knew that FAOT was being targeted. And I really don't buy that scum would withhold the kill without any information whatsoever to suggest that it'd be useful.

So here's the point. It's nearly impossible for Roband and FAOT to both be town. So we lynch one, and then the other if the first flips town, and meanwhile we'll get cop results, tracker results, and all kinds of useful stuff.

Right now, I don't know if Roband's strange "I'm HAPPY to be lynched, or FAOT's strange "If you lynch me it's the end of the world" is scummier. But, unless you beleive that scum (without Roband) decided to randomly hold back the kill last night and sacrifice a certainly dead townie for some possibly spilled wine, you have to accept that one of them has to be scum.

[Azrael001]

Okay, so here's the thing. Roband has twice now "blocked" someone. I'm not going to lynch another person for the same reason that we lynched fearless. Godfather is not such a crazy power that it wouldn't be included, and would explain all of the things that have happened so far.

[roband]

roband wrote:This is different, because FAOT claims to have targetted me with a doctor.

Actually, I doctored mpolo and have already explained that it was a mod mistake. I've already posted about this so you need to go and read what I've actually posted, instead of just blindly insisting your right about everything.

Yeah, alright I forgot.

[Adam H]

But this situation is totally different. The doctor was blocked. That means that, unlike the fearless fiasco (in which scum probably targeted FAOT, the kill didn't go through because he was protected, and then they spilled wine about the roleblock to their advantage), scum would've had to withhold the kill for us to get to this point, which is just plain stupid unless they knew that Roband was targeting a doctor, something only Roband knew.

[condescension]Why, thank you were reaffiming your absurdity. Allow me to show you (yet again) how foolish you are being. [/condescension]

You say that for the fearless fiasco, scum probably targeted FAOT, and that's why there was no kill. In fact, that's the only thing you are willing to consider. Everything else is just too farfetched for you. FAOT was doctored and scum attempted to kill FAOT, and that's the end of that.

AND YOU VOTE FAOT BECAUSE OF IT.

[Adam H]

EBWOP: hahaha at the typo in my [condescension] tags. Such poetic justice. were=for

[Azrael001]

Well at least someone is paying attention. I can't believe that that slipped by me.

[ForAllOfThis]

After a re-think I still think that Roband is scum. I think that at this point, there is just too much evidence pointing towards it to ignore it anymore. His attitude feels like he's picked me as a target to be lynched and he's just going to force it, regardless of what anyone has to say and the fact he's not even concerned that he was wrong about fearless just reinforces my opinion.

I think that either MostlyNormal or Chan is the other scum player. I'm leaning more towards MN because he's had far more pings. I've been wary of him since he has been worried about looking scummy. Although I still have no read on Chan, she didn't even make a contribution last night to who should carry out the power.

Thinking about it, MN is the better vote. If I am wrong about roband, then scum could potentially gain an unchecked roleblock tonight. If I'm wrong about MN, we don't lose a power tonight.

Vote: MostlyNormal

[Mostlynormal]

I think we're misunderstanding each other here. See, I'm not advocating an FAOT lynch, or a Roband lynch necessarily. And now it seems that many of you are just adovacting a Roband lynch over FAOT. I'm happy with that--I'm just trying to get you to see that no matter what, one of them has to be scum. FAOT is still pinging me a bit because he continues to ignore the fact that from his perspective, Roband has to be scum ("If I am wrong about Roband..."), but I could be convinced to vote Roband.

I guess the trouble is I haven't actually been making much effort deciding which one to lynch. I apologise for that, but it's due to a mixture of being very confused and being too busy to sort it out. I do feel secure, however, in lynching either one of them as either way it'll end up to town's advantage.

[Adam H]

FAOT is still pinging me a bit because he continues to ignore the fact that from his perspective, Roband has to be scum.

Hmmm, you'll have to explain this. I think you are mistaken. If FAOT is town, why would that say anything about roband?

[mpolo]

Exactly what I was thinking: FAOT knows he was blocked, that all surviving Gryffindors say that he was blocked, that he was targetted by roband, and that the kill didn't go through. If he is town, this doesn't really tell him anything at all.

My gut is saying FAOT and MostlyNormal are the two remaining scum. No time to think more deeply right now -- I will return to this later.

[Adam H]

I'll put this here in case anyone can get any info from it. The names under the lynch are ordered from first to last vote, I think.

Townie lynch: Lataro
Adam
T1mm - scum
Az
Fearless - town
TheSecondShadow -town
(Lataro - town)

Voted for other player or didn't vote: Chan, FAOT, mpolo, roband, greenlover, mostlynormal

Townie lynch: Fearless
Roband
Adam
greenlover
MostlyNormal
Fearless - town
TheSecondShadow - town
Azrael

Voted for other player or didn't vote: Chan, FAOT, mpolo, t1mm(scum)

Scum lynch: T1mm
Roband
MostlyNormal
FAOT
greenlover
Azrael
(mpolo)

Voted for other player or didn't vote: Adam, Chan

[Mostlynormal]

Hmmm, you'll have to explain this. I think you are mistaken. If FAOT is town, why would that say anything about roband?

I already did explain it. If FAOT is town, then since the doctor got roleblocked(confirmed by three people, which means at least one of them is town), scum had to have held back the kill. They had no good reason to do this (I don't buy the only kill on even nights thing), unless they knew something that only Roband knew, which was that a doctor was getting roleblocked.

[Mostlynormal]

Ok, I suppose there is one possible, scenario, but it'd be such a ridiculous coincidence it wouldn't even be funny: GL is a scum roleblocker, who roleblocked Roband last night, and scum targeted mpolo for the kill. As I wrote that I realized not even that works, because we have mpolo's tracker result. See, there's no real way they can both be town.

[ForAllOfThis]

If roband is town it means scum has some sort of power switch. It is the only thing that explains the result we got on night one. Why are you so sure that there is no power switch MostlyNormal and there can only be a roleblock, watcher/tracker etc?

[Azrael001]

I think that it is obvious that there is some sort of weirdness going on, the source of this is Gryffindor house, specifically Roband. Our course of action seems clear.

[Mostlynormal]

If roband is town it means scum has some sort of power switch. It is the only thing that explains the result we got on night one. Why are you so sure that there is no power switch MostlyNormal and there can only be a roleblock, watcher/tracker etc?

Because of mpolo's tracking ability. We know for sure that Roband visited you last night--we can't get out of that.

(or rather, we know that if Roband didn't visit you, then mpolo is scum, and since you doctored mpolo that still means that scum had to have held back the kill)

I think that it is obvious that there is some sort of weirdness going on, the source of this is Gryffindor house, specifically Roband. Our course of action seems clear.

I assume you mean lynch Roband? FAOT is still bugging me slightly, but in light of the fearless weirdness I'd be happy to lynch Roband first.

Vote: Roband

[roband]

I think that it is obvious that there is some sort of weirdness going on, the source of this is Gryffindor house, specifically Roband. Our course of action seems clear.

Ha, you really have it out for me. I can see through it though, don't worry.

Fine, lynch me, but LYNCH FAOT TOMORROW. He is scum.

[Adam H]

Hmmm, you'll have to explain this. I think you are mistaken. If FAOT is town, why would that say anything about roband?

I already did explain it. If FAOT is town, then since the doctor got roleblocked(confirmed by three people, which means at least one of them is town), scum had to have held back the kill. They had no good reason to do this (I don't buy the only kill on even nights thing), unless they knew something that only Roband knew, which was that a doctor was getting roleblocked.

You're only looking at one side of it though. The other side is if FAOT is scum, then the mafia must have withheld the kill N1. Assuming there isn't a weird scum power.

So mafia either voluntarily withheld their kill at least once, or they have a restriction on their NK likely tied with some sort of power. I see no other explanation. Therefore scum has NOT attempted to kill every night, and a roleblock on a night with no NK means less than usual.

[Gopher of Pern]

Votals:
Roband: 2 (Azrael, mostlynormal)
FAOT: 1 (Greenlover)
mostlynormal: 1 (FAOT)

House Points:
Gryffindor - 130 points
Hufflepuff - 85 points
Ravenclaw - 110 points
Slytherin - 98 points

There will be a slight extension - Day 4 will end in 24 hours.
Chandani has been mod-prodded.

[roband]

Vote FAOT

I know I'm right and self preservation, I guess.

[mpolo]

Did roband really start the wagon rolling on t1mm? Pretty decisive bussing (if he's scum), though I guess that there was a lot of leaning towards t1mm as a target, so roband could have just been taking advantage of a nascent wagon to get townie points. Still, we have a cop result from a townie on him, and for him to be scum, he'd have to be a godfather. There seems to be some other scum power (block or redirect?), so I wonder if they would have a second power. Which has me leaning town on roband.

MostlyNormal seems to be just digging himself in deeper with several of his last posts. He just feels really scummy to me. Some of them even felt like flailing, even though he's not under a lot of pressure.

I have pretty much trusted FAOT from early on, but now I'm starting to think that a large fraction of the weirdness is solved by his being scum. I still don't have a very convincing theory for the fearless thing on N1, though.

With the deadline, I had better get a vote down. I am not sure how tomorrow will be -- there's a lot going on, but I may be able to sneak on once or twice.

Vote: ForAllOfThis

Ninjaed, but that doesn't really change anything.

[Adam H]

Roband, you certainly know how to manipulate me. I mean, either you are wrong, or we lynch scum? Fine, we'll do things your way.

Vote: FAOT

But I actually do have several serious reasons:
-I don't think roband is scum.
-FAOT was blocked on a night with no NK (which is evidence, even though it's not proof).
-FAOT conveniently stayed off both the townie bandwagons.
-scum targeting FAOT N1 seems highly unlikely, so FAOT being doctored is not a good defense.
-roband (trustworthy?) and greenlover (we'll see) found something scummy with FAOT's defense.
-even if FAOT comes back town we have a decent path to victory (lynch roband, mostlynormal, and greenlover in that order, IMO).

[roband]

Thanks guys. Adam, you'll soon see that this isn't manipulation. I'm certain.

[ForAllOfThis]

@Mpolo: I had a vote for T1mm down on D1, but no-one listened to me, and Fearless jumped to his defense.

I'm going to take an opposite stance to roband. When I flip town tomorrow, don't assume roband is scum. It would be a wrong assumption. I think we've been cleverly tricked twice, I just don't how. However, If roband is scum, it means that the remaining scum is in my house, it's the only way he could have known to block the doctor by blocking me without any reasons.

I'm going to leave my vote where it is, screw self-preservation, as I do think MN is more likely to be scum than roband at the moment.

[Mostlynormal]

You're only looking at one side of it though. The other side is if FAOT is scum, then the mafia must have withheld the kill N1. Assuming there isn't a weird scum power.

Vote: FAOT

What the heck? Instead of giving a possibility that they could both be town, you make the case that FAOT probably isn't scum... and then you go and vote for FAOT. I don't get it.

Also:

even if FAOT comes back town we have a decent path to victory (lynch roband, mostlynormal, and greenlover in that order, IMO).

Wait--you've been disagreeing with me all this time about the FAOT and Roband thing, but now you're saying we should lynch Roband if FAOT flips town? I agree with your conclusion, but I can't understand how you came to it.

I'm a bit worried about the votes for FAOT. I think the whole fearless thing puts Roband in a pretty negative light right now. But as long as we lynch Roband tommorrow, I think we'll be okay.

People are saying that something weird is going on here, and that can't be doubted. But, of all the weird explanations we could think of, none of them really give a satisfying account in which FAOT and Roband could both be town. If FAOT flips town, my vote is going right back to Roband tommorrow.

[Azrael001]

Unvote

On reconsideration, mostlynormal is looking incredibly scummy, I think that everyone would be better off if we just lynch him instead.

mostlynormal

[Azrael001]

EBWOP:
vote: mostlynormal

I played along longer than I should have, with plans of uncovering him tomorrow, but enough people think he is scum that I don't need to.

[Mostlynormal]

On reconsideration, mostlynormal is looking incredibly scummy, I think that everyone would be better off if we just lynch him instead.

Scummy for what, exactly? Scummy for proposing a reasonable plan that no one has yet given any evidence against? For pointing out the inconsistencies in Adam H's thinking?

All I can think of is changing my mind on who to lynch first--it's true that at first I suggested FAOT. But some of the same people who are now voting FAOT gave convincing arguments that Roband was probably scum (while leaving out arguments that FAOT and Roband could somehow both be town). I was convinced by those arguments, though apparently no one else was.

Also, even if you do think I'm scummy, one of FAOT or Roband still has to be scum. So why not lynch one of them and then the other, for a certain scum lynch, along with much more information from night actions, rather than lynching me for a possible town lynch?

[mpolo]

Mostlynormal, I'm pretty convinced that you are scum as well. It's a bit hard to quantify, and I don't have time right now to detail the arguments, but I'm actually very close to ready to switch my vote off to you. I will wait until I can explain my feelings to change my vote, since I can't come up with a particularly credible way to make FAOT not be scum [unless the conspiracy is doing something besides killing on alternate nights, in which case, we may be in a lot more trouble than we think].

I will try to get back in a few minutes, because we're so close to the wire.

[mpolo]

O.K. Here are summaries of the things Mostlynormal has said that rub me the wrong way:

Spoiler:

We’re not at MYLO, so it’s fine to lynch a townie. Pushing the idea of a witheld kill from scum.

Idea about roband and GL ignores my watching result.

Accuses FAOT of overreacting. It doesn’t seem that wild a defense.

Doesn’t like the idea of crazy scum powers. On the positive side, I agree that there is no reason for them to withold the kill unless there’s something going on that we don’t know. (Though this kind of flipflops what he said before.)

Flipflop in the extreme on FAOT – before the scum had targetted him, hence no lynch on N1, now he has to be scum.

I am going to

Unvote

Vote: MostlyNormal

[Mostlynormal]

We’re not at MYLO, so it’s fine to lynch a townie. If, and only if, we can get a scum lynch the next day. One scum down for one townie down is advantageous to town Pushing the idea of a witheld kill from scum. Either FAOT carried out the kill, or scum withheld the kill. You can't get around that unless there are actually crazy town powers that we don't know about, which makes no sense given the information we have.

Idea about roband and GL ignores forgets my watching result.

Accuses FAOT of overreacting. It doesn’t seem that wild a defense. Its an overreaction because it seems like he's trying to avoid being lynched at all. If we were to lynch Roband, and Roband flipped town, I would have no doubt that FAOT was scum.

Doesn’t like the idea of crazy scum powers. Why should I? On the positive side, I agree that there is no reason for them to withold the kill unless there’s something going on that we don’t know. Obviously there's something we don't know. But unless scum could know that Roband was going to target a doctor (something only Roband knew), scum would've been better off not withholding the kill. (Though this kind of flipflops what he said before.) What did I say before?

Flipflop in the extreme on FAOT – before the scum had targetted him, hence no lynch on N1, now he has to be scum. When did I say he has to be scum? I said that one of FAOT and Roband have to be scum. Earlier I thought that FAOT was our best lynch out of the two of them. Now I think Roband is.

My responses are in bold. Though it's sort of groundless, thank you for at least giving me something I can defend myself from.

[Adam H]

Wait--you've been disagreeing with me all this time about the FAOT and Roband thing, but now you're saying we should lynch Roband if FAOT flips town? I agree with your conclusion, but I can't understand how you came to it.

I've only been disagreeing with your certainty. But I've gotta go with what's most likely and after some good discussion I think it's least likely that faot is the towniest of all the lynch options. If he is town, then roband deserves to die.

It is tempting to switch and vote mn, but I'm actually going to stick with faot. Just a gut feeling, really.

[Mostlynormal]

I've only been disagreeing with your certainty.

I feel I should defend myself about this here. I don't think I've been playing very well lately, and if this leads to a loss for town, then I apologize.

I may have been a little arrogant in my past posts. But I have a right to be certain. There is no plausible scenario in which FAOT and Roband are both town. When people started arguing with things like "something funny is going on here" (obviously), I got frustrated, because of all the "funny" things going on, not one of them (at least not one with non-neglegible probability) has both FAOT and Roband as town. Maybe I should've been a little more compromising. But I am confident enough that one of Roband or FAOT are scum to believe that we should go through with the strategy of lynching one today and then the other if the first flips town.

Anyway, despite my belief that Roband is probably the scum, I'm not above self-preservation when it'll hopefully save the town.

Unvote

Vote: FAOT

[Gopher of Pern]

Votals:
Roband: 1 (mostlynormal)
FAOT: 3 (Greenlover, Roband, Adam)
mostlynormal: 3 (FAOT, mpolo, Azrael)

Day 4 had ended. Noone has been lynched.

Night 4 begins now. It will end in 3 days.

Boomfrog will now replace Chandani.

House Points:
Gryffindor - 138 points
Hufflepuff - 95 points
Ravenclaw - 114 points
Slytherin - 108 points

[Gopher of Pern]

Mostlynormals vote change did not count because it was made while I was composing my post. Deadline had already passed anyway.

[Gopher of Pern]

Much confusion reigned. The students didn't know who to turn to. In the end, it doesn't even matter. They were split on who was part of the conspiracy, and so they decided not to report anyone to the authorities.

The next morning, Gryffindor woke up to one of it's members missing. The news quickly spread throughout the hall, and the Headmaster gave another speech about how there is no cause for alarm, and that the student will be found presently.

You all know better.

Greenlover was killed. They were a Gryffindor Student.

7 players alive, 4 to lynch. Day will end in 1 week.

House Points:
Gryffindor - 138 points
Hufflepuff - 95 points
Ravenclaw - 114 points
Slytherin - 108 points

[Azrael001]

I investigated FAOT, he is a student. This makes me more inclined to think that mostlynormal was hoping to get us to lynch two town.

Vote: mostlynormal