I started writing this before Webby posted, then I had to drive my ladyfriend to the airport. Now that I'm at work, I have some time. I'm going to post what I had since I still believe it relevant:
Alright, so before I start analyzing votes and such, I'd like to address the numbers.
2 scum, 2 town, 1 sk. This means that even if we lynch scum tonight, there are going to be two kills. One (if successful) against town. Unless scum target the same as sk, or target the sk, or one of the two remaining town happens to be the potential second doctor (at this point unlikely I think.). If there is only one nk tonight, I think it'd be safest to assume the mafia figured out who the sk is tomorrow if they haven't already (I don't know if the scum withholding a night kill is allowed or not, or even a workable strategy for scum).
A SK lynch tonight would mean that town would still lose one, and the mafia would be two, so a mafia win.
A mafia lynch means there are up to two kills tonight, with chances weighted in favor of it going to 1 on 1 on 1 (which is a loss for town). Still a chance that it could wipe out mafia entirely, leaving the sk to deal with, which could be a win. A townie lynch tonight leaves 2 mafia and either 1 townie 1 sk and the mafia know the sk, or 2 mafia and 1 sk, so a mafia win. This is all ignoring the possibility of a surviving doctor.
SK lynch=mafia win. 1/5 outcomes
Mafia lynch=could go any direction, chances in favor of sk. 2/5 outcomes.
townie lynch=mafia win or sk win. 2/5 outcomes
Or we could No Lynch. With this method the mafia have a chance of targetting the sk (and thus no townies are lost) (1/3), and the sk has a 50/50 shot at hitting a mafia or townie. The situations break down as follows:
mafia hit sk, sk hits mafia. 2 town, 1 mafia, 1 sk. Mafia knows sk. A town-lynch is a town lose, a mafia lynch is a mafia lose, a sk lynch is a sk lose.
Mafia hit sk, sk hits town. 1 town, 2 mafia, 1 sk. Mafia knows sk. They must not be the ones lynched to win. Otherwise goes to a 1-1-1 scenario, where town loses.
Mafia hits town, sk hits town. Mafia win straight up.
Mafia hit town, sk hit mafia. 1 town, 1 scum, 1 sk. Town loss, sk or mafia must win over town. If mafia and sk wind up lynching town, sk win. if no lynch, sk win since mafia can't nk the sk.
AFTER WEBBY'S POST
I do not like any of these options. If I had to pick, I think I'd go for no lynch. If webby's cop is accurate, and the sk listens to it(which I think he would, if he lynches town there's a 3 option scenario, 1. that mafia wins straight up, 2. Mafia and sk target same bloke 3. mafia know the sk, also a terrible option given the pact, all of which ), we wind up in a 2 town, 1 mob, 1 sk world. which is our best shot. This is still my first game, though. I'd like somebody to agree with my conclusion.
On Webby, I think the pact is a fantastic way to guide the sk. Little dubious of the cop claim but there's no counterclaim so far. Feels very townie to me. If people shoot down my idea of a no lynch, I'll probably follow the cop.
NINJA: now out of the blue we get a counterclaim from GoP just as the words leave my mouth! What's the normal way to resolve this?