Hitchhiker's Guide to Mafia - Town wins!

[KrO2]

I guess now that we have a claim we stop the wagon?

If anyone who isn't matt96 is Marvin, counterclaiming is almost certainly a good idea.

Assuming no counterclaims, voting for someone who has claimed is probably a bad idea. This came up earlier, and someone said we shouldn't necessarily believe the claim even without a counter, but we might as well wait. I'm inclined to believe the claim if nobody counters it. Even if the mods did leave a character out for cases like this, how would Matt know it was Marvin who had been left out?
Unvote: matt96
I still think you had been acting scummy, though, and that claim is the only reason my vote is now off.

So...now what? Unless we want to risk lynching cjquines, we've got very little time to lynch someone else. I suppose we could go for lynching one of the lurkers, but I'd prefer to leave that for if we actually can't find anything else.
So first, I'd like some comments about this:

I am not unhappy with this lynch, but just in case there are shenanigans connected with his L-1 comments, I am really content to let time run out here.

This looks like it could be a convenient way to push a wagon without having to be get on it. Or it could be exactly what it looks like, but everyone else was willing to put their vote where their opinion was. I'm trying to picture how this comment would look from various points of view if Matt flipped town.
FoS: mpolo, at least until either he responds or some other people tell me I'm reading too much into it.

[cjquines]

I won't explain because of reasons. Reasons.

[cjquines]

EBWOP: I'll explain.
First, we have t1mm voting for matt96 with a shallow reason. He unvotes, but the fact that he provided a shallow reason makes him a bit scummy to me. He voting for matt96 gives me a it of suspicion. Voting for matt96 would start a bandwagon, so I did so. If he roleclaims Marvin, and no one counterclaims him, I will unvote.

[ahammel]

Unvote

Ok then. Aside from Matt, I have no strong enough feelings to lay down a vote. JSO has thrown out some contentless posts, but that's consistent with my meta on him, and he did join in the scumhunting (by FoSing me! OMGUS!) Cj is probably newbie town or jester. One of the lurkers? Maybe, but I don't have anything stronger than vague suspicions.

Bah. I'm going to bed.

[DaBigCheez]

Okay, I've finished my re-read of the thread - didn't get a lot, but I'll post what I did.

I think the best course of action wrt cj is, as others have decided, to just ignore him entirely - there can be more analysis/judgement D2, but for now it'd just be confusing and lead us nowhere. So, having already dedicated most of my earlier post to cj, I'm not going to deal with him further today.

The main pings I noticed while reading through were on Vieto, ahammel and eculc.

Vieto - Something about his initial rolespec pinged me, but I couldn't quite put my finger on what - I think it may have had to do with the rolespec about the mice. His first-vote-of-the-day post also pinged me slightly, but I think I may have been overreacting somewhat to the "zomg someone's starting up a vote MUST BE A BANDWAGON GUIZE", and am manually correcting that by noting the first semi-serious vote of the day is moderately townie, leaving my read of him as neutral.

ahammel - Seemed to dogpile onto the mattwagon without providing much of any information of his own, and I haven't noticed much legitimate content from him throughout the rest of the day. (It might have just been the irony of jumping on a bandwagon with the justification of "because he was jumping on the easy-newb-vote bandwagon" that pinged me.) Reads as slightly to fairly scummy.

eculc - Mostly, it's just that he seems to pop up with a post just as I've forgotten he's even in the game, being forgettable and making strong statements but not really committing to much. I think I'm overreacting here, so I'd place it at neutral to slightly scummy.

matt96 - didn't directly ping me, but I do not believe his roleclaim straight-up. From some of the earlier flavor I'd see a possibility that Marvin has interfaced with the ship's computer, possibly justifying the claimed L-1 mechanic with cutting off life support systems or something, but frankly I think that claimed was more "inspired by" the earlier flavor, rather than the earlier flavor hinting at it. "I totally rolespecced about this role", for a role as major as Marvin, isn't really much of a breadcrumb either. That said, with no counterclaim, there's little reason to place a vote here - I remain suspicious, but will put that aside.

I don't really have enough of a read to be meaningful on any other players, and due to the lateness of my read-through, haven't done much checking for who's lurking through the game, instead just reading through posts and seeing what catches my eye. May do a more in-depth player-by-player analysis later on in D2, rather than the current once-over game analysis.


In the meantime, I'm going to place my vote on my strongest read. I'll be on for another couple hours tonight before going to bed, but after that probably won't be on again before deadline - if it winds up changing the outcome, well, I don't apologize, since I'm placing my vote where I feel it's most justified.

Vote: ahammel

[Vieto]

Well, I won't be awake for the lynch, so I will have to cast my final vote now, if ever.

Matt: I'm not sure I fully trust his claim as Marvin. Indeed, if something 'bad' happens to everyone who voted for him, it cannot be game-breakingly strong. If everyone who votes for him dies, for example, or is recruited into a cult. He probably either roleblocks the target, or some form of cop is made publicly available (of questionable sanity, otherwise he would not say it is a bad thing) or something like that.

On a side note, he does bring up role speculation about Marvin, so that gives him some credit. I'm not going to vote for him, although he pings as slightly scummy.


T1mm/Cj:

EBWOP: I'll explain.
First, we have t1mm voting for matt96 with a shallow reason. He unvotes, but the fact that he provided a shallow reason makes him a bit scummy to me. He voting for matt96 gives me a it of suspicion. Voting for matt96 would start a bandwagon, so I did so. If he roleclaims Marvin, and no one counterclaims him, I will unvote.

I'll bite, lets see what T1mm has done this game, and I'll think about it:

Looking through his posts, his first content post is a gut-vote on Matt, purely on gut. He later explains his vote based on one of Matt's post regarding scum speculation. Next, he tells JSO not to ask Cj to lurk, and then he exits a bandwagon which is forming rapidly behind him. Out of those actions, only the first pings my scumdar, while the other 2 seam somewhat townish. I'm getting a neutral reading on him. What I have noticed is that Cj is spending a lot of effort (read: 3 different posts) directing attention toward Tim. He votes for a lot of other players too, but he's actually given extra attention Tim's way. He is giving a strong Jester vibe, so I don't want to vote him, but it feels like there is an equally likely probability of him being scum... hmm...

It's late, so I only have time for 1 more rolespec before I can decide who to vote for...

JSO: So his actions are: Suggest possible roles, more of that + suspects Vogons are mafia (like everyone else), tells Cj to go back to lurking, claims to have been wanting to redirect attention away from Cj, his only content-heavy post (sort of),and suggests Matt is Arthur dent. In the content-heavy post, he defends his active-lurking, and FOS's ahammel for proposing possible scum. Ahammel does give reasons why those players are on his list, JSO does bring up that the list is rather large (given a random sample of 4 players, there is a 54% chance one of them is scum... wait, that's not too probable...) actually, scratch that point about it being a good point, but it is some form of discussion. My main issue with JSO is he is active-lurking (although quite frankly I tend to do that in a lot of the games I play as well.) Still, it is a documented scum tactic, last I checked, so... I'm still not decided.

So to summarize the people currently being voted for:
Matt: Threatens bad things to happen to whoever votes for him. (Not bad things to anti-town players specifically, bad things in general.) Claims to be Marvin.
Cj: Muddying water, behaving like either a panicing mafia, a new, inexperience player, or a jester.
JSO: Active lurking

I'm going to vote JSO, because he does appear to be hiding in plain sight: lots of low-content posts to make himself appear active. I also want to see if anything comes from the Cj-t1mm dynamic, and I want to give Matt the benefit of the doubt, for now.
Vote JSO

[mpolo]

Obviously, matt's claim changes things. Now I'm pretty happy not to be on that wagon…

JSO: Vieto has a point about his low content, but I voted him on this in another game and he wasn't anti-town, which has me a little cautious there -- he could still be scum, as that sort of play is pretty optimal for scum as long as it doesn't get noticed, but he's still a newbie by our standards, so I'm cutting some slack. JSO - we want content!

Cj is hard to read (to say the least), but with the jester possibility, I'm not going to vote there.

I have class in 10 minutes, so I'll leave this here and come back soon-ish (probably 2 1/2 hours from now).

[KrO2]

I feel like I have to post something, because I don't currently have a vote down and deadline is real soon. Since we've pretty much decided against lynching cjquines and matt96 has claimed, my strongest feelings of scumminess have been stopped pretty effectively. I wish this day were longer.

People going after the lurkers pings me slightly; what is that going to gain us? But I understand that this could be just a play style thing, so I'm not throwing out the Widely Splayed Hand of Suspicion at everyone who did.

This is a pretty weak preference, but I think I'm going to
Vote: ahammel
Partly because of what DaBigCheez wrote, and partly because he unvoted and just left it that way, apparently with no intention of coming back and voting. It kind of strikes me that town would want to use their vote even if they don't have a strong feeling. Scum would want to not commit if they can get away with it.
I'm kind of worried that I'm being too heavily influenced by DBC's post. I don't like being that influenced by one player, but I'm tired and it does look pretty reasonable. So long as I don't wake up in the morning and think "how could I have believed *that*," I'm relatively happy with this vote.

I'm unlikely to be on at deadline, since it's at 5 a.m. here, so this vote is likely to be final unless someone argues against it soon.

[t1mm01994]

Given a random sample of 4 players, there's a chance of 54% at least one of them is scum

Interesting... Or actually, the main point that's interesting is you assuming without even caring to state that there's 2 scum, which seems oddly low. I think I found me a better target

Vote: Vieto

As for matt, he is perfectly calm while highest on the votals, which is not what I'd expect from him. He oes not mind getting lynched which means that something bad is bound to happen if he is.

[mpolo]

On the other hand, a townie who knows that his lynching is going to produce some sort of bad effect for [a subset] of his lynchers can afford to be relatively resigned to being lynched. It's actually very much in character for Marvin as well.

T1mm's comment is interesting, if I have understood correctly. That is, the 54% figure is valid if there are exactly two scum, where if there are three scum, that value would be much higher, and Vieto has not hedged with an "at least 54% chance". This could well be scum subconsciously admitting to being the only ones who really know how many enemies we are facing.

For now, I'm going to

Vote: Vieto

and really try to come back to this before deadline.

[t1mm01994]

mpolo, that is the correct way to interpret what I just said, yes.

[cjquines]

mpolo and t1mm have a good point. An unusually good point. I'm getting off of this bandwagon.
Unvote
Vote: Vieto

[matt96]

mpolo and t1mm have a good point. An unusually good point. I'm getting off of this bandwagon.
Unvote
Vote: Vieto

Oh the irony, off of one bandwagon and onto another.

[matt96]

EBWOP
It wasn't really a bandwagon until he joined, but I think a better lynch target might be ahammel, whose last post sounded a lot like what I was trying to say in 2of4, and what I therefor find highly scummy
Unvote
Vote: ahammel

[wam]

Ok im just catching up, i thought the deadline was 8 am BST not 8 am EST so havent been checking the thread.

I agree that as no one has come forward with a counter claim, Matt is probably marvin and probably pro town.

The vieto slip seems pretty scummy to me, and was the thought of thing I very nearly did as scum in 2 of 4 several times.

Ahammel seems to be slightly scummy but nothing too bad.

They are currently both at 3 votes each. I am going to go with my best quick read.

Vote:Vieto

Although as one of them still gets lynched a draw is not too bad.

[eculc]

EBWOP
It wasn't really a bandwagon until he joined, but I think a better lynch target might be ahammel, whose last post sounded a lot like what I was trying to say in 2of4, and what I therefor find highly scummy
Unvote
Vote: ahammel

I'm not seeing much to justify this, beyond his unvote-with-no-vote, and that's only because the deadline is so close. I really do hope you're not falseclaiming, matt.

...actually, what if the mods gave him some falseclaim-suggestions in his role PM? I haven't actually had this happen to me, but that's only because I haven't been scum in any of my games yet. I'm guessing it's possible. it might be something to think about D2.

seeing as the deadline is coming up quickly now, I'm going to agree with vieto; JSO is definitely the most lurky at this point, and at least then we have a lynch. hopefully we'll be a bit better D2.

Vote: JSO

[Snark]

Votals:
4 - Vieto (t1mm01994, mpolo, cjquines, wam)
3 - ahammel (DaBigCheez, KrO2, matt96)
3 - JesseScottOwen (webby, Vieto, eculc)
1 - cjquines (matt96)

Not voting: JesseScottOwen

Deadline in 30 minutes at 8:00am EST

Deadline happens whether I'm online to say so or not!

[t1mm01994]

eculc why completely ignore Vieto's strange assumption of 2 anti-town?

[cjquines]

N1 (unofficial)

[JesseScottOwen]

I'd like to vote for ahammel, but I don't want a NL so:

Vote: Vieto

[eculc]

Because he has a valid point about JSO, and because I'm not about to jump on a bandwagon. a better question is, why are you trying to pressure me about it?

[Snark]

Votals:
5 - Vieto (t1mm01994, mpolo, cjquines, wam, JesseScottOwen)
3 - ahammel (DaBigCheez, KrO2, matt96)
3 - JesseScottOwen (webby, Vieto, eculc)
1 - cjquines (matt96)

Greetings dear passengers! It seems as though you've had an eventful day.

Alas, nighttime is upon us, and a candidate for lynching has been nominated.

I hope this won't get anyone's spirits down. It's just a tiny matter of some rope and a stool.

Now Vieto please step forward, and let's get you fitted for the noose. Any volunteers to kick the stool? Excellent!

Vieto has been lynched.

And now it really is time for bed. But be aware that most of the cabin doors don't lock. So if you get any visitors during the night...

Night 1 has begun. It will last for 48 hours (until May 2, 8:00am EST) or until all night actions have been submitted. If you have an action that you don't wish to use, please PM the mods "No Action" to help speed up the process.

[Adam H]

Recently trodden slugs everywhere hope to one day match your level of doing-things-in-a-timely-fashion, and I have every confidence that one of them will eventually succeed. Get your actions in, slackers.

[Adam H]

*Clang clang clang bang clang rattle clang!*

You like that? It's a little composition I wrote and recorded called "Monkeys with Pots". You monkeys are good for some things in life, I suppose. Banging pots together is just one of your talents - others include saying the letter "D" and counting with your fingers AND toes. Well anyways WAKE UP ALREADY!

There was a party last night. It got a little crazy. Some words were said, some people murdered, etc etc etc no one cares. It's nothing to get upset about. It's not like you monkeys can't just reproduce.

Vieto was lynched yesterday. He was the Vogon Guard (scum bodyguard).
Wam was killed last night. He was Zaphod (town roleblocker and voterigger).
KrO2 was killed last night. He was Vogon Jeltz (scum roleblocker).

Looks like there are no more Vogons aboard the Heart of Gold. They were even bigger dipshits than the rest of you, so that's good.

Day 2
9 alive, 5 to lynch
Deadline in 4 days: May 5, 8:00am EST

[t1mm01994]

Well, that's one scum faction down.. On to the next faction!

[eculc]

So...it looks like there's an SK/Vig too.

[t1mm01994]

Sharp observation, and I think that it's you.

[eculc]

Me? in that case, do you think I'm a vig or an SK? I'm suspecting that if there *is* an SK, it's probably mpolo, what with how lurky he was being. after all, an SK wouldn't have much reason to post much, would they? as for Vig, I'm not sure, but I'm also not sure it matters, given that Vig *is* town-aligned.

I suppose, on second thought, that there could be a second scum faction as well. Since we've already rid ourselves of the vogons, maybe the krikketers are the others?

[ahammel]

Wow, reading through the thread yesterday morning I though Tim's vieto vote was a little soft. Shows what I know.

I hope this isn't too WIFOMy, but eculc is giving me a ping on my scumdar because of this:

EBWOP
It wasn't really a bandwagon until he joined, but I think a better lynch target might be ahammel, whose last post sounded a lot like what I was trying to say in 2of4, and what I therefor find highly scummy
Unvote
Vote: ahammel

I'm not seeing much to justify this, beyond his unvote-with-no-vote, and that's only because the deadline is so close. I really do hope you're not falseclaiming, matt.

...actually, what if the mods gave him some falseclaim-suggestions in his role PM? I haven't actually had this happen to me, but that's only because I haven't been scum in any of my games yet. I'm guessing it's possible. it might be something to think about D2.

I don't like this for a of reasons

1) Matt's vote was justified. I straight-up played badly yesterday. I stand by my reasoning in voting for matt initially, but I should've held off when I saw a wagon forming. I abstained yesterday because I felt that it was better to withhold my vote than throw one out at random and I still think that, but I should have explained that better.

2) The longshot attempt to throw matt's claim into question. I find the mod suggestions idea pretty farfetched, and not really worth exploring until we run out of ideas. It reads like he wants to discredit the claim but is afraid to do anything more dramatic than post vauge suspicions.

In summary and conclusion: FoS eculc for longshot speculation and failure to recognize my poor play.

Ninja'd by eculc failing acknowledge the possibility of a second scum faction, which makes me he's might be a member of it. Also: vig doesn't make any sense. If there's only a vig and no second faction or SK the game is over and we won.

Doule ninja'd by tim apparently sharing my suspicions.

TRIPLE ninja'd by eculc coming around to the idea of a second scum faction.

[DaBigCheez]

Aha, I live to see another day!

Nice to see at least one of the players I was suspicious of flipped scum (Vieto). Now that the Vogons are out of the way (good), we can't really glean too much info from the voting record yesterday (less good); I was going to suggest JSO as being townie for the final vote of the day, but if he's in a scum faction at all it must be a separate one, so that's useless info after all :/

Anyway, as far as other thoughts - I'm still suspicious of matt's claim, but still see no particular reason to doubt it. eculc's looking suspicious to me, both because of my pings on them yesterday and because of the reasons ahammel outlined. He throws out a bunch of ideas to discredit matt's claim D1, but more telling to me is the "hmm, do we have a vig or an SK - oh, maybe we could even have a second scum faction?" bit. It's incredibly obvious we have a second scum faction of some sort, given that the game's not over, so why the uncertainty and why does it take so long to come up with the "two scum" theory? I theorize it's because eculc is the SK and was trying not to make Vieto's mistake of betraying too much already-known information, but overdid it. No town, except for possibly the most careless one, should be making that mistake unless they missed the "Vogon faction is eliminated" flavor - which eculc clearly didn't.

Not going to vote yet, mostly to give others more time to chime in, but eculc's where my vote is going unless something changes fairly dramatically.

(Side note: I'm disappointed that I didn't have any pings from KrO2 before his flip, but eh, whatcha gonna do?)

[webby]

I have no objections to the lynch of eculc unless something more scummy happens. I'm slightly suspicious that yesterday his reason for not mentioning Vieto, even though he posted in the midst of discussion, was because he thought that Vieto was going to turn up town (didn't realise there's another scum faction around) and therefore stayed away from the lynch.

We have 9 players left, probably distributed something like 6-2-1 or 7-2. The Vogon scum powers weren't particularly good, so if the other scum faction is similar (which it probably should be to be balanced) I think we're in a pretty good position here.

Tim pointed out Vieto's mistake, although he'd likely do that as SK too, or as part of a second scum faction, because perhaps he may have picked up on the mistake so quickly because he himself was trying to avoid making it. I don't know if we get that much information about the alignment of the people on the Vieto lynch, because anyone not Vogon would have wanted to lynch Vieto.

[cjquines]

I'm suspecting ahammel, for reasons stated before.

Also, I might have a small eensy-teensy-tiny-small bit feeling to roleclaim.

[cjquines]

EBWOP: Suspicion on distribution for me, is 7-2.

Also, anybody want to reveal the results of their night actions?

[webby]

EBWOP: Suspicion on distribution for me, is 7-2.

Also, anybody want to reveal the results of their night actions?

This is not generally wise unless you believe that the benefit of doing so is greater than the loss to the town if you get nightkilled. (And of course we have to worry about what mechanics the mods are using to discourage claiming).

I would say that if you have a cop result that someone was scum, or if you roleblock someone tonight and there was one less kill tomorrow, or if you are a watcher/tracker and you saw someone visit someone who got killed, or you have a result that exonerates the person about to be lynched, then claim your result unless you think the person you have the incriminating result on will get lynched anyway. Else, generally don't. (I may have missed some roles, but the point should be clear)

[cjquines]

Ah, thanks for clearing that up. Do remember I'm still grasping the generalities of this game.

[mpolo]

There were twelve of us at the beginning. Now that we know that there are at least two anti-town factions, it seems to me to be likelier that we have two two-person factions than one faction plus a SK, though that remains a possibility.

Actually with ecluc's reaction, that seems almost likely. He suggested there was either a vig or an SK, as though the two were equally likely. Unless there's a cult as second scum faction, I don't quite see how a Vig could explain our results -- we would have already won if we had eliminated the only scum and the kill was in the hands of town.

So, ecluc might well be a serial killer. But we shouldn't rush things. Unless something else comes up, I'm going to be voting for him.

[JesseScottOwen]

EBWOP: Suspicion on distribution for me, is 7-2.

Also, anybody want to reveal the results of their night actions?

This is not generally wise unless you believe that the benefit of doing so is greater than the loss to the town if you get nightkilled. (And of course we have to worry about what mechanics the mods are using to discourage claiming).

Does anyone really think it would be a huge loss if CJ got NK'ed?

CJ, if you do have some information, feel free to share it. Then, scum can tie up their NK with you, and we don't have to waste a lynch on you later.

Everyone's suspicious of Eculc, but nobody wants to be the first to cast a vote.

Vote: eculc

[eculc]

Well, you seem awfully excited to lynch today. I can't say why, or why you'd threaten Cj like that. It seems almost like you'd want to lynch him next. is there just something I'm missing, or do you have another reason for doing that?

[DaBigCheez]

Agreed that JSO seems oddly aggressive towards/dismissive of cj (yeah, cj's D1 posts were fail, but recent ones have gotten better, and while I wouldn't rate cj's contributions as the most valuable it's not in "I hope they're a power role and get NK'd" territory), but eculc's tone in that last post just seals my day's vote for me. "Well, gee, it sure seems like SOMEONE's trying to push a lynch, now why'd they be doing that, eh? Eh?"

Vote: eculc

[ahammel]

Yeah, the finger-pointing at JSO doesn't really improve my opinion of eculc. No reason to start a wagon this early in the day, though. I'll hold off voting until deadline is coming up, or if we really run out of things to talk about.

Eculc: if we lynch you and you come up town, who should we kill next and why?