Gladiator Pit Mafia - Game Over: Town Wins!

[Adam H]

Gladiator Pit

Gladiators! As you know, we perform this week for the Emperor. But this is no ordinary show. I have concocted an elaborate scheme to entertain and delight the Emperor and his royal guests. You will fight, to the death, among yourselves! How is this different from everyday life, you ask? The DRAMA, my dear warriors! Two of you have been secretly banded together as partners, and the rest of you must weed them out. The games will not end until one faction is victorious!

Standard Rules:

Spoiler:

1. Do not talk about the game outside this thread (except in an appropriately titled spoiler in the discussion thread).
2. DO NOT TALK ABOUT THE GAME OUTSIDE THIS THREAD.
3. You may not edit your posts.
4. YOU MAY NOT EDIT YOUR POSTS.
5. Don't lurk through the whole game; if you need to drop out, tell me.
6. If you aren't part of the game, do not post in the thread.
7. If it's night-time, do not post in the thread.
8. If you die, do not post in the thread.
9. You may not post verbatim or quote from your role PM. Paraphrasing is fine.

Game Setup:

Spoiler:

The game is split up into 3 phases – Day, Pit, and Night. During the day, players will vote to send two players into the Pit. Then in the Pit, the two gladiators privately submit a choice of weapon which will determine which gladiator survives. All players may talk in thread during the Pit phase, and some players can use their ability during the Pit phase. After the Pit fight is over, I will reveal the dead player’s role. Night begins and players cannot talk in thread. Some players can use their ability at night.

There is a two player Mafia team. The Mafia has a faction kill that they can use only on Night 2 and Night 4. They also can chat during ALL phases of the game.

There might be one or more independent roles. All independents prefer for town to win over mafia (although it is not necessarily in their best interest to pursue optimal town play).

Voting:
Every player gets two votes, which may be used to vote for the same player or two different players. To avoid confusion, label your votes A and B. For example:

Vote A: Sue
Vote B: William
…
Unvote A: Sue
Vote A: William

Bob now has two votes on William.

If you confuse me with your votes, then I’ll try to interpret it how I think it was intended. All final votals are final.

The day ends either when deadline is reached or when I say so – whichever comes first. Hammer has a different meaning in this game since everyone has two votes. Hammer is considered cast when all players have placed their two votes and there’s a clear top two candidates. If there are 7 players then the 14th vote is Hammer unless the votes are tied - if there is not a clear top two, then Hammer is not reached until someone switches their vote**. For example:

5 players left, 10 votes total.

Votals:
Sue: 4 (Bob, Bob, Jimbo, Jimbo)
Bob: 3 (William, William, Mary)
William: 3 (Sue, Sue, Mary)

Hammer has not yet been reached because of the tie. If deadline comes before the tie is broken, then random.org will determine who out of Bob and William are sent to the pit with Sue.

If the Hammer vote is cast you are free to keep talking; however, any votes/unvotes after Hammer will not count.

The Pit
Once in the pit, the two gladiators will "fight". Each player has armor and a weapon. The armor is chosen at the beginning of the game by each player and is not public knowledge. Your armor can never be changed. A weapon is chosen each time a player enters the pit. There are three different armors and three different weapons, and each type of armor counters a different weapon (similar to rock-paper-scissors).

The following chart shows the different armors and weapons, and resulting damage. For example, if Sue is Unarmored and uses Magic, while William has Leather armor and uses Hammer, then Sue deals 2 damage to William (Magic attacking Leather) and William deals 3 damage to Sue (Hammer attacking Unarmored). Therefore Sue dies and William survives. The damage dealt during the round does not affect future rounds in any way.

Code: Select all

            Sword  Hammer Magic
Platemail   1      5      9
Leather     6      7      2
Unarmored   8      3      4


All players will be informed of the loser’s armor and weapon, as well as the winner’s weapon, but NOT the winner’s armor type. The winner’s armor type can be guessed, however, depending on the results of the fight. In the previous example, players will be told that William dealt 3 damage and that Sue used Magic, so they know that William must have leather armor because otherwise he would have lost the fight (although it’s a bit more complicated because of the powers detailed below).

Unique Powers
Each player has a unique power. There are 7 powers, assigned at random and are mostly unrelated to the player’s win condition. The powers are:
3 Cops
- 1 Sane (receives town or non-town result)
- 1 Insane (receives town or non-town result - the opposite of sane cop in all cases)
- 1 Naïve (always receives town result).
(If random.org assigns scum one of these cop roles, they become a sane cop whose investigation result gives both ability and faction. If a scum cop dies you will NOT be told whether the player was taking up the sane/insane/naïve role – that is, you can’t figure out your sanity based solely on the deaths of the other cops if one is scum. Cops cannot target themselves or dead players.)
1 Armor Cop – Picks a player and is told what armor the player is wearing.
1 Tiebreaker – Wins all tiebreakers in both the pit and in votals.
1 Blacksmith – Gives 1 bonus damage to a player in the pit. Cannot target self.
1 Priest – Gives 1 bonus armor to a player in the pit. Cannot target self.

In case of a tie in the pit fight, the tiebreakers are 1) Tiebreaker role, 2) previous pit experience (the player who has been previously voted to the Pit has the advantage), 3) random.org.

**If the last vote is cast and there is a tie involving the Tiebreaker role, then that is considered Hammer and I will end the day. This would publicly reveal the Tiebreaker in all likelihood.

Q&A

Spoiler:

Can we No Lynch?
No. Two players will be chosen every day.

Roughly How long will the Pit Phase last?
As long as necessary and as short as possible. Hopefully about 24 hours.

Are the blacksmith and the priest powers, one shot or multiple use?
All abilities can be used once per day/pit/night cycle.

At what point do cops get told their results?
All cops submit their investigation at night, AFTER the pit results are resolved and a gladiator has been killed. They receive the results at the end of night.

Can a cop target someone in the pit while they're in there, even if they die that cycle?
No. The order is: 1) pit phase ends, 2) dead player's role and faction is revealed, 3) cops pick a target (they cannot pick the dead player).

What happens if there is a three-or-more-way tie?
Random selection. The tiebreaker role would secretly be excluded from the random selection.

Will scum cop also be told sanity if they target another cop?
Yes, scum cop is told the sanity of their target.

What would happen if everybody used both of their votes on the same person?
The second player will be chosen randomly out of all the players with no votes

Are the sanities of cops revealed upon death?
Yes.

Town win condition: You win when the Scum team is eliminated.

Scum win condition: You win when only Scum remains alive.

Players
1. wam - Scum Role Cop, died in Pit 3
2. Alekusandorosu - Town Priest
3. Angua/Snark - Town Blacksmith
4. Rosewinsall – Scum Tiebreaker, died in Pit 2.
5. UniqueScreenname - Town Cop (sane), died N2.
6. Matt96 - Indie Armor Cop, died in Pit 1.
7. ahammel - Town Cop (insane)

Don’t confirm in thread. When you receive your role PM, reply with your permanent choice of armor (Platemail, Leather, or Unarmored). Once I hear back from all players, I will begin Day 1. Scum cannot chat at this time.

Role PMs have been sent out.

For reference:

Code: Select all

            Sword  Hammer Magic
Platemail   1      5      9
Leather     6      7      2
Unarmored   8      3      4


-Platemail is strong against sword, weak against magic
-Leather is strong against magic, weak against hammer
-Unarmored is strong against hammer, weak against sword

[Adam H]

Start of Day 1

Now that we’re all armored up, let the voting begin!

7 players alive, 14 votes total.

Deadline is in precisely 6 days.

[wam]

Ok so I have never played a pit game before so this should be interesting.

A few questions to start off with

Can we No Lynch?

I should point out im not advocating a No Lynch im just wondering if its possible in this setup.

Roughly How long will the Pit Phase last?

Are the blacksmith and the priest powers, one shot or multiple use?

[Adam H]

Can we No Lynch?

Roughly How long will the Pit Phase last?

Are the blacksmith and the priest powers, one shot or multiple use?

No. Two players will be chosen every day.

As long as necessary (~24 hours).

Multiple use - once per day/pit/night cycle. Abilities can be withheld if desired.

[Rosewinsall]

yay it finally started.

[Alekusandorosu]

I hate the first day of mafia, it always sucks.

[UniqueScreenname]

Cops aren't very reliable. My basic math skills tell me we have about a 60% chance of an accurate result with only comparing dead players to past results as a way to determine sanity. At that rate it would take until day 3 to figure out if you're sane, at which point we may have already lost. However, I think cop results in this setup are unique in that if they aren't scum and we send them into the pit there is still a chance they will survive, preventing a mislynch. That's something to think about. To be clear, I'm not advocating or even putting out any possible cop claiming strategies, because I happen to suck at strategy and I don't want my horrible math and lack of foresight to be seen as a scumtell.

That being said, people get posting.

[Alekusandorosu]

Is there anybody who would be willing to do the math for the cop roles?

[Angua]

I'm not really sure - cops can't target themselves, so they'll be best off targeting people in the pit, at least on the first night, as that will give them a 50-50 chance of figuring out if they're insane. The main problem is that scum can also be the cop, so we have no way of knowing if they're lying or not. Speaking of which, roleclaiming won't be very useful in this game, as all the roles can either be scum or town.

[wam]

Right maths time (Have I mentioned how bad I am at statistics, give me complex differential equations anyday). Wheres snark when you need him.

So theres a 2/7 chance per role that scum got it. Theres a 3/7 chance that the role was a cop.

So by my maths theres a 12% chance that one of the cops is scum.

Assuming that one of the cops is not scum.

We have all three cops in the game. Ideally we need to identify the naive cop as soon as possible, but im not sure how to do this....

Also I agree that cops should target the people in the pit.

The other thought I have had is that the priest and the blacksmith should claim and then state during the pit stage who they are helping (this can then be checked later in the game).

In the pit we can have 1 of three options (percentages based on lynching randomly)

2 town (47.6 %)
1 scum 1 town (47.6%)
2 scum (4.7%)

Therefore if there scum has one of the roles they would have to publically help thier scummate (who we could find either through their death or through cop investigations).

thoughts?

also one more question

At what point do cops (specifically the armour cop) get told thier results?

[Adam H]

At what point do cops (specifically the armour cop) get told thier results?

All cops, including armor cop, submit their investigation at night, AFTER the pit results are resolved and a gladiator has been killed. They receive the results at the end of night.

[ahammel]

In the pit we can have 1 of three options (percentages based on lynching randomly)

2 town (47.6 %)
1 scum 1 town (47.6%)
2 scum (4.7%)

Seems to be about right. For the nerdier among you, here's a Python script to simulate it:

Code: Select all

#!/usr/bin/env python

import random
import sys

def choose_pair(n_scum, n_town):
    pool = ['scum' for n in range(n_scum)] + ['town' for n in range(n_town)]
    return random.sample(pool, 2)

def run_simulation(rounds, n_scum, n_town):
    results = {'two_scum': 0,
               'one_each': 0,
               'two_town': 0}

    for r in range(rounds):
        result = choose_pair(n_scum, n_town)
        if result.count('scum') == 2:
            results['two_scum'] += 1
        elif result.count('scum') == 1:
            results['one_each'] += 1
        else:
            results['two_town'] += 1

    return results


def main(rounds, n_scum, n_town):
    result_table = run_simulation(rounds, n_scum, n_town)
    total = 0
    for result in result_table:
        total += result_table[result]
    for result in result_table:
        print result, ": ", result_table[result] / float(total)

if __name__ == '__main__':
    main(int(sys.argv[1]), int(sys.argv[2]), int(sys.argv[3]))


Example result:

Code: Select all

[alex@gottfried ~]$ ./pit_mafia.py 100000 2 5
two_town :  0.47535
one_each :  0.47644
two_scum :  0.04821


So, assuming that the pit is a coin-flip, we've got about 0.047 + (0.476 / 2) = 28.5% chance of killing scum tonight, which is exactly the same as if this were a vanilla game. Business as usual, then.

[Angua]

Can a cop target someone in the pit while they're in there, even if they die that cycle?

Just checking to make sure if we don't get the results until after the pit fight.

[Adam H]

Can a cop target someone in the pit while they're in there, even if they die that cycle?

No, the order is: pit phase ends, dead player's role and faction is revealed, then cops pick a target (they cannot pick the dead player).

[UniqueScreenname]

Questions to get discussion going: How do you feel about using your votes on one person versus using each vote for a person? Who would you prefer sent into the pit if there is one mafia member left and that person is already going into the pit?

I will probably vote for two people until we have gotten rid of at least one scum, then I will decide according to how sure I am that someone is scum. For instance, at the end of Party mafia, I probably would have used a vote for lynx and a vote for Misnomer to be sure my bases were covered, but if there's a cop result that I trust, I will probably use both of my votes for that person.

I don't know if it matters if we have the blacksmith and priest on our side. If we don't then I hope we have an insane or naive cop still around. Have as little at stake as possible.

[matt96]

Answering US's questions, I would prefer people to use their votes on different people, using vote A for the person they are more suspicious of, unless they only find one person suspicious. I hereby volunteer to be the person who goes in against the last scum if we get down to one scum, and we know who they are.

[Rosewinsall]

if the person is reported scum by a trusted cop I would use both votes on that one person. But most of the game I will use each vote on a different player.

[ahammel]

I don't know if it matters if we have the blacksmith and priest on our side. If we don't then I hope we have an insane or naive cop still around. Have as little at stake as possible.

It matters when we have a cop result that we trust. We pit out scum along with anybody else, and the priest and the smith will presumably know what to do.

I'll be casting for two players unless I have a really compelling scumtell.

[Alekusandorosu]

Answering US's questions, I would prefer people to use their votes on different people, using vote A for the person they are more suspicious of, unless they only find one person suspicious.

I'll be casting for two players unless I have a really compelling scumtell.

if the person is reported scum by a trusted cop I would use both votes on that one person. But most of the game I will use each vote on a different player.

I think that for the most part, everybody would vote for two people unless given good reason to do otherwise. Like a trusted cop's accusation or like Ahammel said "a really compelling scumtell".

[Angua]

I think that I'd vote for two people as well. As two people have to go into the pit, then I'd prefer to have a say for both of them.

As for the blacksmith and the priest claiming - I think I"m against that. At the very least until after n2, as they seem to be the most valuable players (should they be town) in making sure that the person we want to win does win, if we are fairly definite about someone being scum (which means that mafia will want to eliminate them as much as possible).

[UniqueScreenname]

I never said I wanted the priest and blacksmith to claim. I only wanted people to say what their ideal pit would be in that situation.

I don't know if it matters if we have the blacksmith and priest on our side. If we don't then I hope we have an insane or naive cop still around. Have as little at stake as possible.

It matters when we have a cop result that we trust. We pit out scum along with anybody else, and the priest and the smith will presumably know what to do.

What I meant was if we have a good cop result and the blacksmith and the priest are on our side, they will do the right thing and there will be less at stake for the town person in the pit, whoever it is. I was answering my second question.

My attempts at forcing people to talk so I could look for scumtells: failed. More if I think of something else.

[wam]

Answering questions, I will probably use my votes on two people because normally I have several people Im suspicous of.

As too who we should send into the pit if we have known scum in there. I think we would need to find someone whos armour couldn't be known to scum (assuming the armour cop isn't scum and got lucky) as they would have the best chance of winning.

[Angua]

Sorry USN - was replying to this in the same post, which is why I put it in a different paragraph.

The other thought I have had is that the priest and the blacksmith should claim and then state during the pit stage who they are helping (this can then be checked later in the game).

[ahammel]

Sorry USN - was replying to this in the same post, which is why I put it in a different paragraph.

The other thought I have had is that the priest and the blacksmith should claim and then state during the pit stage who they are helping (this can then be checked later in the game).

Woah, totally missed that.

Vote A: Wam

for an obviously terrible suggestion. Why on earth would we want two pretty good power roles to claim?

[Rosewinsall]

I agree. We should let those roles use their ability without the scum knowing about it.

[wam]

Sorry USN - was replying to this in the same post, which is why I put it in a different paragraph.

The other thought I have had is that the priest and the blacksmith should claim and then state during the pit stage who they are helping (this can then be checked later in the game).

Woah, totally missed that.

Vote A: Wam

for an obviously terrible suggestion. Why on earth would we want two pretty good power roles to claim?

Well what I was trying to say about this is that they are the two roles which would be most helpful to scum. Especially if we end up with one scum one town in the pit, scum could easily manipulate the fight towards their scum mate. By having them claim we can then work out if they are helping town or scum and even if they are scum make them either help town or out themselves as scum.

Also with night kills only on night 2 and 4 scum killing off claimed power roles is a lot lower probability than normal.

[Alekusandorosu]

I had an idea, although it may be better for later in the game. When we have someone who is confirmed town, we can send them into the pit so that the priest and the blacksmith can use their powers accordingly.

[ahammel]

Well what I was trying to say about this is that they are the two roles which would be most helpful to scum. Especially if we end up with one scum one town in the pit, scum could easily manipulate the fight towards their scum mate. By having them claim we can then work out if they are helping town or scum and even if they are scum make them either help town or out themselves as scum.

If the priest and blacksmith are town, what's the benefit to us? If the priest and blacksmith are scum, why would they play along?

I had an idea, although it may be better for later in the game. When we have someone who is confirmed town, we can send them into the pit so that the priest and the blacksmith can use their powers accordingly.

We don't know that the priest and blacksmith are town. And anyway, what's the benefit of having confirmed town in the pit? Surely it's better to have a chance of pitting two mafiosi.

[Alekusandorosu]

We don't know that the priest and blacksmith are town.

I didn't even think of that. With that maybe it isn't so great. My reasoning behind my idea was that the priest and the blacksmith could help the townie win in the pit so that the other person would be killed. But if even one of them is mafia that kind of ruins it. Never mind.

[Alekusandorosu]

EBWOP:

If the blacksmith or priest are mafia, I mean.

[Adam H]

Votals:
wam - 1 (ahammel)

Deadline in precisely 48 hours.

[Angua]

Ok, I'm going home tomorrow, which means I'll be traveling for over 12 hours, and thus not online.

I think that there's a pretty small chance that the blacksmith and priest are both scum (1/49, no?), so at the very least they should be able to cancel each other out. However, that increases the imperative to not let scum know who they are, at least until after N2.

I'm going to

vote A: wam

as well, mainly because it's the only thing I have to go on (though just because someone has a bad idea doesn't mean they are scum, but it's the only thing standing out to me at the moment).

vote B: matt
Mainly because I find matt's saying that they volunteer to be the person in the pit against suspected mafia (provided we've already killed one) to be trying too hard to say that they are town.

Votes are subject to change, depending on activity. I might get time to post on Wednesday, but I might be jetlagged and sleep in.

[wam]

Well what I was trying to say about this is that they are the two roles which would be most helpful to scum. Especially if we end up with one scum one town in the pit, scum could easily manipulate the fight towards their scum mate. By having them claim we can then work out if they are helping town or scum and even if they are scum make them either help town or out themselves as scum.

If the priest and blacksmith are town, what's the benefit to us? If the priest and blacksmith are scum, why would they play along?

The scenario I was imagining was this, A and B go into the pit. We are pretty confident B is scum and A is probably town. In the fight B kills A and survives. On Looking at the fight result we realise that for B to have won he must have been helped by the blacksmith or priest. Therefore we know that whoever the blacksmith or priest is must also be scum. By making them claim we would make sure that in this situation they would have to help town or out themselves. Having looked again at the fight damages there seems to be a reasonable number of permutation where changing the damage by 1 could lead to draws etc.

As i mentioned before with no NK till N2 I felt the downside was probably worth it. But as im clearly in the minority (of 1) I will drop it.

Vote A: Rosewinsall

For lurking and only contributing 1 post.

Vote B: Alekusandorosu

For this post

I had an idea, although it may be better for later in the game. When we have someone who is confirmed town, we can send them into the pit so that the priest and the blacksmith can use their powers accordingly.

Why on earth would we want to send a confirmed town into the pit. Even if the priest and blacksmith use there powers if the opponent guesses the armour right they can still kill them!!


Ninjad by Angua, actually i think the probability is 8%

[Angua]

Actually, I think it should be 1/7* 1/6 + 1/7*1/6 which is about 5%.

[wam]

Actually, I think it should be 1/7* 1/6 + 1/7*1/6 which is about 5%.

Yep your right. I told you I was bad at statistics.

[ahammel]

The scenario I was imagining was this, A and B go into the pit. We are pretty confident B is scum and A is probably town. In the fight B kills A and survives. On Looking at the fight result we realise that for B to have won he must have been helped by the blacksmith or priest. Therefore we know that whoever the blacksmith or priest is must also be scum. By making them claim we would make sure that in this situation they would have to help town or out themselves. Having looked again at the fight damages there seems to be a reasonable number of permutation where changing the damage by 1 could lead to draws etc.

Why do you expect the hypothetical scum blacksmith/priest to play nice and claim?

[wam]

The scenario I was imagining was this, A and B go into the pit. We are pretty confident B is scum and A is probably town. In the fight B kills A and survives. On Looking at the fight result we realise that for B to have won he must have been helped by the blacksmith or priest. Therefore we know that whoever the blacksmith or priest is must also be scum. By making them claim we would make sure that in this situation they would have to help town or out themselves. Having looked again at the fight damages there seems to be a reasonable number of permutation where changing the damage by 1 could lead to draws etc.

Why do you expect the hypothetical scum blacksmith/priest to play nice and claim?

Erm thats a very good point. Basically I hadn't thought that through. I guess the only way to do that would be to mass claim but I don't think thats a good idea.

[UniqueScreenname]

While I can see the towny aspects of both of their strategies, I find that I do better if I just accept what is obvious, and that Aleks and wam have ideas that are simply bad for town.

Vote A: wam
Vote B: Alekusandorosu

One reason I don't like the idea of the blacksmith and priest claiming is also because even if they are both town, it is still very possible for the townier person to lose if the scummy person guesses the armor well and the towny person guesses the armor poorly. In that case, we could start blaming town players for things that are simply out of their control.

[Rosewinsall]

While I can see the towny aspects of both of their strategies, I find that I do better if I just accept what is obvious, and that Aleks and wam have ideas that are simply bad for town.

Vote A: wam
Vote B: Alekusandorosu

One reason I don't like the idea of the blacksmith and priest claiming is also because even if they are both town, it is still very possible for the townier person to lose if the scummy person guesses the armor well and the towny person guesses the armor poorly. In that case, we could start blaming town players for things that are simply out of their control.

not to mention if it's tie the tie breaker may be scum.

[Alekusandorosu]

Come on. I was just throwing out ideas and I saw the flaw and revoked it.