Carlington wrote:For example, do you think it would be likely, if we had a doctor, that they would have claimed by now? When does it become "safe" for different roles to start claiming, because that's something I'm not understanding at this point.
0% Chance of a preemptive claim. Doctors almost never claim preemptively. I can see two reasons for a doctor claim in a simple setup: either they strongly suspect X is not scum because they targeted them and no one died that night (and the setup rules out other reasons for that like a roleblocker), or they are close to being lynched and claim it out of desperation.
Safety in claiming is a function of known remaining roles, not of time. Eg. it's generally safe for a cop to claim when they know there is a doctor and the scum are unable to either do unblockable kills or roleblocking.
Madge wrote:However, if you're a cop and you have a guilty result, you're meant to immediately claim as such.
1. In this setup, a guilty result at this point is, as far as the cop can know, meaningless. Every single game is possible still, and in each game, there is either an insane cop by default or a variation with an insane or paranoid cop. Since each setup has a cop, the cop can't narrow which setup we're in any further down (even if they were roleblocked, since there's a chance of a roleblocker in each setup).
2. Even if a cop had a 100% certain guilty result (such as a simple, open, setup with a guaranteed sane cop and no godfathers), it would be a bad idea to immediately claim. If you can get someone lynched anyway, then why claim to do it? Claiming in many situations means you just die the next night, and if they counterclaim, you may end up being lynched that day anyway! By contrast, if they are lynched anyway, you are much less likely to die that night (unless it's safe to play follow the cop anyway, in which case you don't need a guilty result to start), and thus you have the chance to cop more people. Even if you can't get them lynched, you may be able to get enough suspicion on them to make it quite likely they'll be lynched if you show up dead as a cop. Obviously that last part doesn't apply in late game (whenever it is possible that a mislynch instantly losses the game for the town), but we are decidedly not at late game, and note the total lack of any qualification or nuance in Madge's incredibly flawed claim.
3. The "If I was a cop" system weighs heavily against claiming before late game (and late game doesn't mean day X, it varies on how close to town losing we are, eg. in a simple setup, 3 town 2 scum is late game, because if a townie is lynched they lose [also if no lynch], while 4 town 1 scum can mislynch once, or no lynch twice before being in that same lynch right or lose position, again, only for pure vanilla setups, doctors, roleblockers, NK-immune, vigs, etc, all change that). If a cop dies, the town will still have all of their results. So one of the big reasons to claim, the fear that the cop will die without revealing all of their results, is removed.Madge's advice is wrong in general, very wrong in this game, and if meant to be actual advice to a cop in this game, incredibly anti-town.
Carlington wrote:Alright, but how do town's power roles know that there's a doctor if the doctor never claims such until they're about to be lynched? Then town gets at best one night of protection before mafia NK's the doctor. I can't think of a better way to play it, but it seems like an awfully ineffective strategy.
Because it's not "safe to claim once a doctor claims," it's "safe to claim because you know there is a doctor based on the setup, and you know other things, like no roleblockers/unblockable kills." One of the main reasons to use a random setup is to prevent claiming/follow the cop. So no, it's very unlikely the doctor will claim unless they're about to be lynched. And it wouldn't make sense for another power role to claim then because:
1. There's a good chance we'll lynch the doctor anyway. Even if we knew for sure there was a single living doctor, if scum counterclaimed, there'd be a 50/50 chance of lynching the doctor. And since we don't know there's a doctor, that claim is fairly likely to be a scum trying to save themselves (and they may or may not know that there's no doctor).
2. The power role wouldn't last long as you point out.
3. There's a good chance the power role would get roleblocked.
There's still plenty of possibilities for claims, especially as we get closer to the end, and not counting claims of desperation. But this setup makes them much less likely than an open, non-random setup with the same roles as what we actually have. And I suspect that was at least part of the reason Lataro opted for a setup with so much randomness.
That's how I read it too, but if you consider assassin scum, it's wrong. We had 3 scum out of 12 players, and now 2 scum out of 9 players, which is a very small narrowing down.