Lataro's Simple Fun Game Over: Town wins.

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wam
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D3: Town Special Dead-ed-ed-ed!

Postby wam » Fri Feb 08, 2013 10:57 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Well the doctor could claim to confirm Eculc but then we have essentially mass claimed. :p Lets just wait on that, Eculc will be confirmed or proven wrong in the next few nights If Eculc is still alive and no doctor has died by the last night then we can talk about claiming.

Assuming Eculc is confirmed then we should just lynch everyone left, Wam, Bartmaus and.. err... me. :D I don't really care the order, at this point I'm pretty sure Wam is scum.

Vote Wam


Well I believe eculc claim as it's got too much detail in it for him to be wrong and if we get to endgame and theres been no doctor flip we can look for a claim.

So cop results from here on are going to be useless. BF your confusing me as you said that if madge and I had worked together we could have prevented her lynch yet you think I am her scumbuddy.

Well from my POV it's you or bart left.

As I never trust you :twisted:

Unvote

Vote Boomfrog
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D3: Town Special Dead-ed-ed-ed!

Postby Christophoros » Fri Feb 08, 2013 7:12 pm UTC

OK, it's good that both wam and BF are accepting that lynching them is an acceptable strategy, but they both seem to be saying that the only options at the moment are BF, wam and Bart. Have I missed something, or is Carlington still unconfirmed?

I'm not too comfortable with him - I can't point to anything damning in particular so I haven't pressed the issue, but something just seems off. Also, he was quite quick to jump on my wam vote even after it had been confirmed that my logic was not applicable.

I don't know if I'd be happy with a wam lynch today or not, and it seems to be running that way quite fast.

Unvote: wam
Vote: Carlington

It's an option.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D3: Town Special Dead-ed-ed-ed!

Postby eculc » Sat Feb 09, 2013 12:32 am UTC

I *would* accuse christophoros of making a mostly-baseless vote, but I had the same feeling with both madge and silknor (which I suppose should show that my scumdar is clearly faulty). For the moment, though, I think I'll put this down:

Vote: Wam

Because I'm finding him scummiest for his IMO OMGUS vote (which accompanied his decision to unvote me, which he claims is because he now believes me. What about in the several other posts you made before that?) and for looking for a scum link between madge and I when there wasn't one.
Um, this post feels devoid of content. Good luck?
For comparison, that means that if the cabbage guy from Avatar: The Last Airbender filled up his cart with lettuce instead, it would be about a quarter of a lethal dose.

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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D3: Town Special Dead-ed-ed-ed!

Postby eculc » Sat Feb 09, 2013 12:34 am UTC

EBWOP: Just thought of something -- I think it should be said that no-one should hammer, as giving us more time to think about things (especially when we're down to one scum) is probably a good idea. We want to get as much time to talk out of each day as we can.
Um, this post feels devoid of content. Good luck?
For comparison, that means that if the cabbage guy from Avatar: The Last Airbender filled up his cart with lettuce instead, it would be about a quarter of a lethal dose.

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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D3: Town Special Dead-ed-ed-ed!

Postby Christophoros » Sat Feb 09, 2013 1:08 am UTC

eculc wrote:I *would* accuse christophoros of making a mostly-baseless vote

I would have as well, but then I'm un-bandwaggoning a target who looks like he's going down clean for someone with no votes, and I'm confirmed as a useless naive cop (Grr, That's really evil, making someone THINK they have knowledge when they don't.)

Also I concur on the no-hammer for now, though if wam can't talk pretty damn fast I think he's gonna burn.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D3: Town Special Dead-ed-ed-ed!

Postby Lataro » Sun Feb 10, 2013 2:32 am UTC

Finally, have my internet at my new place set up. Sorry for the troubles.

Votals:
wam - Boomfrog, eculc
Carl - Christ
Boomfrog - wam

Deadline is about 27 hours from now. Lets call it 9:30 PST.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D3: Town Special Dead-ed-ed-ed!

Postby Christophoros » Sun Feb 10, 2013 9:37 pm UTC

In the interests of avoiding a potential last minute tie, I'll switch back to wam. Just let it go on the record that I think Carlington is smelling fishy.

unvote
Vote: wam
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D3: Town Special Dead-ed-ed-ed!

Postby Lataro » Mon Feb 11, 2013 6:05 am UTC

wam was lynched. Night actions please!
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Garak: "Are you sure that's the moral?"
Julian: "Of course. What else could it be?"
Garak: "Never tell the same lie twice."

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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun N3: wam down!

Postby Lataro » Wed Feb 13, 2013 5:49 pm UTC

wam is dead, he was VT.

Suzaku was NK'ed, he was an insane cop.

Deadline in roughly a week. Five alive, Three to hammer!

Day Four starts now.
DS9, after being told the story and moral of the boy who cried wolf by Julian.

Garak: "Are you sure that's the moral?"
Julian: "Of course. What else could it be?"
Garak: "Never tell the same lie twice."

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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D4: Insanity Ended.

Postby Suzaku » Wed Feb 13, 2013 6:04 pm UTC

You dirty, rotten swine, you! You have deaded me!
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D4: Insanity Ended.

Postby eculc » Wed Feb 13, 2013 6:16 pm UTC

So, five players. Myself, BF, Christophoros, Carlington, and Bartimaeus.

I think my first suspicion is towards carlington, as he's managed very well to stay below the scumdar for now, and at this stage lurking could definitely be a scumtell.
Um, this post feels devoid of content. Good luck?
For comparison, that means that if the cabbage guy from Avatar: The Last Airbender filled up his cart with lettuce instead, it would be about a quarter of a lethal dose.

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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D4: Insanity Ended.

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Feb 14, 2013 12:43 am UTC

I'm extremely sure of Carlington's townieness. I'd be very surprised if he is scum. He put in a good and sincere effort D2 when it really counted. Bartimaeus however has fallen off the map. He seemed townie D1 but he's really drifted into lurking and minimal content. Seems like scum who has given up.

I'll hold off voting for a bit more discussion but my mind is pretty much made up already.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D4: Insanity Ended.

Postby Christophoros » Thu Feb 14, 2013 5:07 pm UTC

As far as I see it, we have two more lynches. If we miss both times, we lose. Therefore I think it would be useful to know who everyone's top TWO suspects are, for a comparison of notes.

1. Boomfrog. Given wam turned town I'm a lot more likely to believe his thoughts about BF. Also his latest post seems off to me - I understand the LaL theory, but it also seems like a very easy way to persuade the town into voting for someone with no information. I think the profession of Carlington's townieness is a red herring, trying to make us think he's town by defending someone to the hilt. Also, why is D2 the one that really counts?

2. Bartimaeus. If BF ISN'T scum, then his defending of Carlington has more weight, and making me think he must have some actual reasoning behind it, leaving only Bart left since I'm fairly sure of eculc's claim.

So my preference would be lynch BF tonight and Bart tomorrow night.

Other people?
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D4: Insanity Ended.

Postby eculc » Thu Feb 14, 2013 5:21 pm UTC

My top two are Carlington (for reasons I detailed earlier) and Bartimaeus (for lack of pretty much anything recently)
Um, this post feels devoid of content. Good luck?
For comparison, that means that if the cabbage guy from Avatar: The Last Airbender filled up his cart with lettuce instead, it would be about a quarter of a lethal dose.

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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D4: Insanity Ended.

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Feb 15, 2013 1:39 am UTC

Well if it's not Bart then it has to be Carlington. I suppose Eculc could be a lucky scum false-claiming chosen but that seems less likely then the possibility that I'm wrong about Carlington.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D4: Insanity Ended.

Postby Carlington » Fri Feb 15, 2013 1:51 am UTC

Well, given that conclusion, clearly the solution is to lynch Bartimaeus first. Because I'm town, you see.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D4: Insanity Ended.

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Feb 15, 2013 4:19 am UTC

Well Carlington, from your view it shouldn't be that simple since I could be scum. So between Bart and I who do you think is scum and why?

modprod Bart?
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D4: Insanity Ended.

Postby Carlington » Fri Feb 15, 2013 12:26 pm UTC

Sorry, I guess I wasn't clear enough. "Given that conclusion" was meant to imply that should we accept what BoomFrog says is true, then the only possible conclusion is to lynch Bart. Of course, there's a very real possibility of BF being scum.
Given that eculc is Chosen and christophoros is Cop, my top two are Bartimaeus and BoomFrog. I second BF's request for a modprod (I keep typing modprobe by habit, XD) on Bartimaeus - or at least for him to post more, when he sees this. Until then, I'll view him as marginally scummier than BF.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D4: Insanity Ended.

Postby Lataro » Sun Feb 17, 2013 6:43 am UTC

He has been prodded, additionally, consider this a game prod.
DS9, after being told the story and moral of the boy who cried wolf by Julian.

Garak: "Are you sure that's the moral?"
Julian: "Of course. What else could it be?"
Garak: "Never tell the same lie twice."

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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D4: Insanity Ended.

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Feb 17, 2013 7:20 am UTC

We're all waiting on Bart.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D4: Insanity Ended.

Postby Carlington » Sun Feb 17, 2013 8:14 am UTC

Eculc could always expand a little on his post.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D4: Insanity Ended.

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Feb 18, 2013 2:10 am UTC

Deadline in roughly a week. Five alive, Three to hammer!
So that's less then 3 days now. Alright, lets just ignore Bart and assume he is going to be mod killed.

That leaves four alive, which is traditionally time to No Lynch. The reason is that if we lynch a townie and then the mafia kills there's two left and that's a mafia win. So either way we only have one more chance to lynch. If we lynch now it's 1/4 that we win, but if we lynch later it's 1/3rd.

However, that logic doesn't hold up right now because it's already a 1/3rd chance since Christophoros is 100% confirmed town.

Carlington could be scum if Bart or I am the doctor. I still think he's townie from my reads on him and I'm pretty good at identifying noob townies because they are just so unrestricted with their thoughts. Noob scum are much more quite and reserved for fear of making a mistake.

Eculc could be scum if Snark was the real chosen and Eculc correctly guessed the setup. Or if Eculc was wrong about their being a doctor but no one has the ability to prove that false yet.

Actually, we probably should No Lynch anyway. It doesn't hurt our odds of catching scum but it will give us information about Bart's role which could confirm Eculc. So either Bart is getting modkilled and we should no lynch or he isn't getting mod killed and we should lynch him.

Vote Bart

Effectively a No Lynch if Bart is getting modkilled anyway.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D4: Insanity Ended.

Postby eculc » Mon Feb 18, 2013 2:05 pm UTC

I agree. if he is going to be modkilled, the least we can do is lynch him to both speed up the process and possibly catch him if he's scum.

Vote: Bartimaeus
Um, this post feels devoid of content. Good luck?
For comparison, that means that if the cabbage guy from Avatar: The Last Airbender filled up his cart with lettuce instead, it would be about a quarter of a lethal dose.

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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D4: Insanity Ended.

Postby Christophoros » Mon Feb 18, 2013 7:14 pm UTC

Umm, then why vote bart, possibly killing him before the modkill, and wasting a lynch, when we will get the same effect by voting No Lynch?

That makes me MASSIVELY suspicious of BoomFrog. Actually, to the point where

Vote: BoomFrog
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D4: Insanity Ended.

Postby Carlington » Tue Feb 19, 2013 1:51 am UTC

BoomFrog, I don't think your maths is quite right there - but I do agree with your conclusion.
We've got 5 left - me, BF, Bartimaeus, eculc and christophoros.
eculc is Chosen, and christophoros is a naïve cop - so we know they're both town.
That leaves a potential scum pool of 3 - me, BF and Bartimaeus.
Bartimaeus is dead anyway, irrespective of his town/scum status. There's a 1/3 chance of Bartimaeus being scum. If we lynch either of me or BF, we've got a 2/3 chance of scum being killed tonight. However, with 5 left, 2 lynches and a NK tonight gives us a 1/3 chance of being left at 1/1, which is a mafia win. If we No Lynch/lynch Bartimaeus tonight, and he flips town, we're left at 1/3 with one lynch to spare - giving us 50/50 odds of victory.
To sum up, the only part of BF's analysis that is wrong, IMO, is his calculation of our chance of victory tonight and tomorrow night - he said we've a 1/4 chance tonight and a 1/3 tomorrow - I think we've a 1/3 chance tonight and a 1/2 tomorrow. Of course, if there's a doctor, who claims, that leaves us at a 1/2 chance of victory tonight and no way to lose tomorrow - if we have a doctor, they should claim tomorrow (assuming we don't win tonight)
christophoros, if you weren't confirmed town, I would be suspecting you BIG TIME right now. I have honestly no idea what your problem with this plan is.
Vote: Bartimaeus
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D4: Insanity Ended.

Postby Lataro » Tue Feb 19, 2013 7:49 am UTC

Day Four has ended! Bart has been lynched!

Night actions please!
DS9, after being told the story and moral of the boy who cried wolf by Julian.

Garak: "Are you sure that's the moral?"
Julian: "Of course. What else could it be?"
Garak: "Never tell the same lie twice."

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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun N4: Lurker Hammered!

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Feb 20, 2013 7:22 am UTC

I will be traveling in two days. I had planned this would be over by then.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun N4: Lurker Hammered!

Postby Lataro » Wed Feb 20, 2013 7:42 am UTC

deadline for night will be when I wake up tomorrow. Anyone who has an outstanding action that isn't submitted by then will be treated as withholding it.
DS9, after being told the story and moral of the boy who cried wolf by Julian.

Garak: "Are you sure that's the moral?"
Julian: "Of course. What else could it be?"
Garak: "Never tell the same lie twice."

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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun N4: Lurker Hammered!

Postby Lataro » Wed Feb 20, 2013 5:13 pm UTC

Bart was VT.

Day Five starts now! Deadline is this time next week as a maximum. You do not need to wait that long however, as a friendly reminder to keep the game moving.

Four alive, Three to lynch.
DS9, after being told the story and moral of the boy who cried wolf by Julian.

Garak: "Are you sure that's the moral?"
Julian: "Of course. What else could it be?"
Garak: "Never tell the same lie twice."

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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D5: Deathless

Postby Christophoros » Wed Feb 20, 2013 6:43 pm UTC

OK, in my eyes this confirms eculc. No NK means a successful doctor, so eculc had it right.

So this is LYLO, I think. Is this the point where it's best to do a No Lynch just to up our figures?

Also, we know that it's either Carlington of BF is the scum. I still don't like BF's strategy yesterday, since I can't see why lynching someone who was going to get modkilled anyway is a good thing.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D5: Deathless

Postby Bartimaeus » Thu Feb 21, 2013 12:06 am UTC

As my "DAMMIT I DIED" post, I would like to apologize to everyone for my utter lack of activity lately. I've gotten progressively more preoccupied by school, and the game almost completely skipped my mind. I really should have known better than to have started a game that would continue into the semester, but I was on break and bored. Anyway, I'm sorry.

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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D5: Deathless

Postby Carlington » Thu Feb 21, 2013 1:16 am UTC

((No worries, Bartimaeus.))

Christophoros, this doesn't necessarily confirm eculc as town. If he were the only remaining scum, he could have chosen not to NK last night, which would make it look like there had been a successful doctor, which would fool everyone into listing him as confirmed town, thus saving himself.
Now, I don't think any of that is what actually happened - but I do think it's important that we keep it on the table as a possibility, especially at this late stage of the game, when there is no margin for error.

All that said, unless some compelling evidence comes up to the contrary, or some other good reason that I shouldn't, I'm more likely than not to vote BoomFrog today. Either BF or No Lynch. I know I'm town, there's a general agreement that Christophoros and eculc are both town, which leaves BoomFrog. But, if we mislynch, we lose - so yeah. Either BF or No Lynch.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D2: Dead People

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Feb 21, 2013 1:49 am UTC

Well, I'm not the doctor, I am just VT. Frankly it's been extremely obvious since D2 that Carlington is the doctor. That is why I've been defending him to the hilt since D2. I think every experienced player has know it which is why Wam, Suzaku, Eculc and I have never raised serious suspicion of his since D2. With that in mind, since Eculc claimed after the two cops revealed and he knew his own role he actually had all of the setup info. He took a gamble that Snark was the chosen and it paid off.

I dug up the quotes that tipped us all off to Carlington's role. Really no one can fake noobie town, it's just so adorably incompetent sometimes :p (no insult intended Carlington, this is what vanilla games are for. You have to gain experience by making mistakes.)

Carlington wrote:For example, do you think it would be likely, if we had a doctor, that they would have claimed by now? When does it become "safe" for different roles to start claiming, because that's something I'm not understanding at this point. Having said that, I've only ever played face-to-face vanilla mafia before in my life, so I'm still trying to understand power roles to begin with.

Alright, but how do town's power roles know that there's a doctor if the doctor never claims such until they're about to be lynched? Then town gets at best one night of protection before mafia NK's the doctor. I can't think of a better way to play it, but it seems like an awfully ineffective strategy.
If Carlington wasn't the doctor he would have asked about all the power roles strategies not just doctor. The focus on doctor was blatant.

Vote Eculc
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D5: Deathless

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Feb 21, 2013 1:52 am UTC

Ninja'd by Carlington. Well there ya go. Anyway, No Lynch isn't useful as it doesn't improve our odds. We are already at 50/50 chance to win. It doesn't get better then that. The Chris' are confirmed town. It's either me of Eculc.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D5: Deathless

Postby Carlington » Thu Feb 21, 2013 1:59 am UTC

I guess that falls under "suitably compelling".
What confuses me, though, is that if it's really been that obvious, why has nobody NK'ed me yet? And yes, this means I'm claiming doctor (officially) now.
For the record - I was deliberately hinting at the possibility. My plan was to subtly tip off fellow town earlier, so that they'd know I was a doctor and not lynch me, which seems to have worked. The risk, of course, was that scum would also pick up on it, so not exactly a flawless plan, but it hasn't failed catastrophically.
However, I think it bears pointing out that just yesterday, you said if it wasn't Bartimaeus, it must necessarily be me. It interests me that you've gone back and forth so much on this - but I'm willing to attribute that to the fact that you needed a second option yesterday, and now that it's come to it, you don't suspect me enough to vote on it.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D5: Deathless

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Feb 21, 2013 2:41 am UTC

Well I wasn't 100% sure. If Bart had flipped doctor then of course I would have lynched you. I really didn't expect that Eculc had successfully falseclaimed chosen. I thought the game would end after we lynched Bart, or at worst I would have been horribly wrong again and Bart was the doctor. This was the lest likely scenario I considered.

As to why scum hasn't killed you yet, it's always hard to guess the motives behind a NK but you have been a contender for being lynched and killing confirmed town is best for scum. I do have to ask why you didn't protect Silknor or Suzaku. I guess that really doesn't matter now though. Whoever you protected today is probably town, although even that is not 100% as scum may have withheld the kill.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D5: Deathless

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Feb 21, 2013 10:46 am UTC

Kinda expected some rebuttal from Eculc... oh well.

I'm flying to India tomorrow. Good luck with the decision.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D5: Deathless

Postby Carlington » Thu Feb 21, 2013 11:14 am UTC

eculc typically seems to post here sometime between 2300 and +0600 my time. It's 2212 now, so he should be on in a couple hours or so.

There's only one vote so far, and that's Christophoros voting eculc. If you don't vote before you go, BF, that makes a hammer impossible for now, and almost guarantees that you're the hammer when/if you get back. Otherwise, it really depends on what I do, which is scary.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D2: Dead People

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Feb 21, 2013 1:19 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Vote Eculc


I already voted.
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Re: Lataro's Simple Fun D5: Deathless

Postby Christophoros » Thu Feb 21, 2013 5:59 pm UTC

The odds don't stack up for me. I just don't think eculc would have taken the risk that Snark was the chosen VT. Since snark was the only VT to have died at the time he claimed there was only around a 1/3 (possibly 1/4 since he didn't know the setup) chance of the ploy working.

Doesn't seem like a worthwhile risk to take since if there is a counterclaim it is an auto-loss, since we would just lynch both claimers.

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