What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

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dalcde
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What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby dalcde » Tue Aug 27, 2013 9:28 am UTC

Signs of Life
If you could teleport to a random place of the surface of the Earth, what are the odds that you'll see signs of intelligent life?

Borislav Stanimirov


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Klear
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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby Klear » Tue Aug 27, 2013 9:42 am UTC

Damn... looks like I'm going to be listening to Plastic Beach for the foreseeable future...

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby rhomboidal » Tue Aug 27, 2013 9:57 am UTC

The Great Wall of China is too skinny and snaky to see from space. Though, I've heard that Tiananmen Square around June of 1989 is even harder to catch sight of in China.

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby Dr. Gamera » Tue Aug 27, 2013 10:18 am UTC

The forest in Louisiana brings up the following interesting question: would forest that is not old-growth forest qualify as a "sign of life"? As a layperson, my understanding is that almost all forests in the eastern United States display evidence -- at least to the expert eye -- of having once been used for lumber. (Whether this particular stretch of Louisiana forest qualifies, and what similar effects are visible in other terrain, are beyond my ken.)

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby Klear » Tue Aug 27, 2013 10:39 am UTC

Dr. Gamera wrote:The forest in Louisiana brings up the following interesting question: would forest that is not old-growth forest qualify as a "sign of life"? As a layperson, my understanding is that almost all forests in the eastern United States display evidence -- at least to the expert eye -- of having once been used for lumber. (Whether this particular stretch of Louisiana forest qualifies, and what similar effects are visible in other terrain, are beyond my ken.)


I believe most kinds of monoculture are a sign of human influence. This is what ruined the opening fight in the forest in Gladiator for my brother-in-law.

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby peewee_RotA » Tue Aug 27, 2013 11:10 am UTC

There's an image without title text? THE END IS NEAR!!! AHHHH!!!
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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby PolakoVoador » Tue Aug 27, 2013 11:51 am UTC

Am I going insane or is note number 2 AFTER note number 3? :|

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby dalcde » Tue Aug 27, 2013 11:59 am UTC

PolakoVoador wrote:Am I going insane or is note number 2 AFTER note number 3? :|

Both?
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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby teelo » Tue Aug 27, 2013 12:41 pm UTC

If you could teleport to a random position on Earth, what are the chances you'll stumble across Bigfoot?

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby dalcde » Tue Aug 27, 2013 12:55 pm UTC

If you could teleport to a random position on Earth, what are the chances that the nearest philosopher believes that you are the same person before and after the teleportation?
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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby hamjudo » Tue Aug 27, 2013 1:12 pm UTC

peewee_RotA wrote:There's an image without title text? THE END IS NEAR!!! AHHHH!!!


The nature of the image requires that we invent an elaborate conspiracy theory to explain the suppression of the title text which finally told the truth about chemtrails. Wait, maybe the empty title text contains all of the truth there is about chemtrails.

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby cellocgw » Tue Aug 27, 2013 1:24 pm UTC

Obligatory serious question:

How easy/difficult is it to spot Earth-sourced leftovers on the surface of the Moon? GLR's statement near the end of the article, about seeing satellites, led me to wonder about the Moon's evidence.
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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby cellocgw » Tue Aug 27, 2013 1:26 pm UTC

teelo wrote:If you could teleport to a random position on Earth, what are the chances you'll stumble across Bigfoot?


You could teleport, but you couldn't tell it very much :mrgreen:

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby davidstarlingm » Tue Aug 27, 2013 2:07 pm UTC

I was expecting other people to note the missing alt-text, haha.

Generating random coordinates on the surface of a sphere isn't hard. Obviously you can't pick a random lat/long (as that would obvs bias to the poles), but you CAN simply pick random polar and azimuthal angles in a spherical coordinate system, then convert to latlong.

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby jpvlsmv » Tue Aug 27, 2013 2:29 pm UTC

dalcde wrote:If you could teleport to a random position on Earth, what are the chances that the nearest philosopher believes that you are the same person before and after the teleportation?

The chances are 1 in 2.

The probablity depends on if you and your philosopher are frequentists or baysians.

--Joe

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby Flumble » Tue Aug 27, 2013 2:40 pm UTC

davidstarlingm wrote:Generating random coordinates on the surface of a sphere isn't hard. Obviously you can't pick a random lat/long (as that would obvs bias to the poles), but you CAN simply pick random polar and azimuthal angles in a spherical coordinate system, then convert to latlong.

Tell me, what's the difference in distribution between picking (latitude,longitude) and (azimuth,zenith)?

There are numerous ways to randomly pick a point on a sphere, including rejection, normal distributions, different distributions for the latitude and longitude or even quaternions. (see wolfram for example)


dalcde wrote:If you could teleport to a random position on Earth, what are the chances that the nearest philosopher believes that you are the same person before and after the teleportation?

That depends on the distribution of philosophers believing you are the same person and philosophers believing you are a different person.

No matter what, teleportation (outside of simply moving) is still a hypothetical mechanism and I don't believe it can be possible given our understanding of quantum mechanics.

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby dexeron » Tue Aug 27, 2013 3:21 pm UTC

This What-if just makes me want to start playing around with GeoGuessr again.
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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby chris857 » Tue Aug 27, 2013 3:42 pm UTC

Wait for nightfall.[4] (And then go crazy and burn down your civilization when you see the stars for the first time.)


Asimov reference for the win.

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby mfb » Tue Aug 27, 2013 5:19 pm UTC

chris857 wrote:
Wait for nightfall.[4] (And then go crazy and burn down your civilization when you see the stars for the first time.)


Asimov reference for the win.

Thanks. I did not remember book title (Nightfall) and author, and I was sure someone else would :D.

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby davidstarlingm » Tue Aug 27, 2013 5:24 pm UTC

Flumble wrote:
davidstarlingm wrote:Generating random coordinates on the surface of a sphere isn't hard. Obviously you can't pick a random lat/long (as that would obvs bias to the poles), but you CAN simply pick random polar and azimuthal angles in a spherical coordinate system, then convert to latlong.

Tell me, what's the difference in distribution between picking (latitude,longitude) and (azimuth,zenith)?

Oh. Dammit. Forgot about the stinking reference plane.

Hmm. u = cos ϕ works well enough, but there ought to be a more intuitive method.

What about hemispheric trangle selection? Separate the surface into eight non-Euclidean triangles, then take the center point of each and run great-circle lines to the vertices, separating them into smaller triangles. With iteration, a series of equally-distributed surface areas can be generated.

Of course, the problem of getting a random distribution rather than a regular distribution still remains.

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby SlyReaper » Tue Aug 27, 2013 6:03 pm UTC

Klear wrote:Damn... looks like I'm going to be listening to Plastic Beach for the foreseeable future...

Why "damn"?
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What would Baron Harkonnen do?

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Flumble
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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby Flumble » Tue Aug 27, 2013 6:33 pm UTC

davidstarlingm wrote:
Flumble wrote:Tell me, what's the difference in distribution between picking (latitude,longitude) and (azimuth,zenith)?

Oh. Dammit. Forgot about the stinking reference plane.

Hmm. u = cos ϕ works well enough

Indeed, and I'd say that's the most intuitive way - at least for me it shows quite clearly* that you can compensate for the different concentrations by taking the cosine of the zenith. Never mind understanding the reason for using the consine (though, that shouldn't be too hard if you observe the integral for the surface of a sphere expressed in z or ϕ), because it works. :D


davidstarlingm wrote:Of course, the problem of getting a random distribution rather than a regular distribution still remains.

Assuming you are correct and the subdivided triangles have the same area (I have zero knowledge on this), you can iteratively choose a subdivision based on a given random number.


SlyReaper wrote:Why "damn"?

It's a casio on a plastic beach,
It's a casio on a plastic beach,
It's styrofoam deep-sea landfill,
It's styrofoam deep-sea landfill,
It's a casio on a plastic beach,
It's a casio on a plastic beach,
It's styrofoam deep-sea landfill,
It's styrofoam deep-sea landfill,
...

I understand



*look, magic happens:
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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby adavies42 » Tue Aug 27, 2013 6:50 pm UTC

or just pull out a geiger counter—there should still be (relatively) short-lived stuff from atmospheric nuke testing in the 50’s and 60’s detectable everywhere

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby Rombobjörn » Tue Aug 27, 2013 6:55 pm UTC

I think it would be pretty difficult to spot a satellite from the ground in a rainforest. Thus, dense forests may be the only places on the surface of the Earth where no artifacts can be seen – unless the forest itself is artificial, that is planted.

And in some places you'll have to wait not only for nightfall but also for clear weather.

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby Klear » Tue Aug 27, 2013 7:08 pm UTC

SlyReaper wrote:
Klear wrote:Damn... looks like I'm going to be listening to Plastic Beach for the foreseeable future...

Why "damn"?


Because, according to last.fm, I listened to almost 400 tracks from that album (and over 200 from The Fall) in the past month and I just managed to escape that...

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby teelo » Tue Aug 27, 2013 8:00 pm UTC

If you could see signs of intelligent life, what are the odds that you'll teleport to a random place on the surface of the Earth?

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby Flumble » Tue Aug 27, 2013 8:03 pm UTC

adavies42 wrote:or just pull out a geiger counter—there should still be (relatively) short-lived stuff from atmospheric nuke testing in the 50’s and 60’s detectable everywhere

Can you distinguish that from naturally occuring (background) radiation?



teelo wrote:If you could see signs of intelligent life, what are the odds that you'll teleport to a random place on the surface of the Earth?

Let's do an experiment. I'll start:
positive outcome: 0
negative outcome: 1

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby Klear » Tue Aug 27, 2013 8:12 pm UTC

Flumble wrote:
teelo wrote:If you could see signs of intelligent life, what are the odds that you'll teleport to a random place on the surface of the Earth?

Let's do an experiment. I'll start:
positive outcome: 0
negative outcome: 1


Ok, now it is:

positive outcome: 0
negative outcome: 1
unsure outcome: 1

(maybe I teleported to the exact same place I was before?)

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby adavies42 » Tue Aug 27, 2013 8:19 pm UTC

Flumble wrote:
adavies42 wrote:or just pull out a geiger counter—there should still be (relatively) short-lived stuff from atmospheric nuke testing in the 50’s and 60’s detectable everywhere

Can you distinguish that from naturally occuring (background) radiation?


hmm, geiger counter may have been an exaggeration—you may need a GC-MS. (i’m pretty sure there are isotopes with half-lives in the decade and century range that are only around right now because we made them.)

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby keithl » Tue Aug 27, 2013 8:28 pm UTC

If you look with instruments, a multiband radio will pick up signals anywhere on the earth, day or night, cloudy or clear.

To see satellites, look within a couple of hours of dawn or dusk. ISS is big enough to easily see at 415 km altitude, but passes into eclipse 20 degrees after passing the terminator, and is below the horizon when you are a further 20 degrees from the sun. ISS is closer and brighter when it is nearly overhead. The same is true of other satellites at that altitude, but they are smaller and harder to see. Satellite flares may be distinguished from meteors by their speed through the sky.

And the most widespread artifacts are cigarette butts, the damned things are everywhere, but the what-if stipulated intelligent life.

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby davidstarlingm » Tue Aug 27, 2013 8:59 pm UTC

Flumble wrote:
davidstarlingm wrote:
Flumble wrote:Tell me, what's the difference in distribution between picking (latitude,longitude) and (azimuth,zenith)?

Oh. Dammit. Forgot about the stinking reference plane.

Hmm. u = cos ϕ works well enough

Indeed, and I'd say that's the most intuitive way - at least for me it shows quite clearly* that you can compensate for the different concentrations by taking the cosine of the zenith. Never mind understanding the reason for using the consine (though, that shouldn't be too hard if you observe the integral for the surface of a sphere expressed in z or ϕ), because it works. :D

Sure, in that respect, it is both intuitive and easy to understand. But I like to couch things in a way that can be explained without trigonometry whenever possible, just because it's usually not intuitive to people who haven't used it at length. I mean, I can make trigonometry intuitive, but that requires another layer of explanation, and so forth.

Still probably the simplest way, hah.

davidstarlingm wrote:Of course, the problem of getting a random distribution rather than a regular distribution still remains.

Assuming you are correct and the subdivided triangles have the same area (I have zero knowledge on this), you can iteratively choose a subdivision based on a given random number.

*look, magic happens:
Image

"I've got the magic in me...."

I think all the subdivided great-circle triangles at a given subdivision depth have the same surface area.

  • Dividing the surface of a sphere into eight octogenospheres (a quarter of a hemisphere if you're keeping track) isn't biased because it can be taken through any axis.
  • In spherical trigonometry, dividing a single octogenosphere into thirds using its midpoint and vertices produces three 45-45-120 triangles of equal surface area.
  • These triangles can be divided into halves with a great circle bisecting the largest angle, producing six 45-90-60 triangles of equal surface area.
  • Another iteration (great circle bisecting largest angle) produces six 45-45-90 triangles and six 45-90-60 triangles. I don't know if these all have equal surface area.

But yeah, it should be easy enough to make the selection. Just take a random number between 1 and 8 (to select octogenosphere), a random number between 1 and 3 (to select initial third of the selected octogenosphere), and a string of random binary digits (each representing one bisection iteration) necessary for your desired resolution, and there's the address to your first random point. Then repeat. If it is, indeed, an equal-surface-area iteration.

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby endolith » Tue Aug 27, 2013 9:40 pm UTC

I wonder what uncontacted tribes or even contacted hunter-gatherer tribes think of satellites. Surely they've noticed them, and that they didn't exist in the relatively recent past. Do missionaries explain it to them? Do they understand through the language barrier?

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby Klear » Tue Aug 27, 2013 10:04 pm UTC

endolith wrote:I wonder what uncontacted tribes or even contacted hunter-gatherer tribes think of satellites. Surely they've noticed them, and that they didn't exist in the relatively recent past. Do missionaries explain it to them? Do they understand through the language barrier?


They are not more mysterious than stars and planets and meteorites...

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby adavies42 » Tue Aug 27, 2013 10:10 pm UTC

endolith wrote:I wonder what uncontacted tribes or even contacted hunter-gatherer tribes think of satellites. Surely they've noticed them, and that they didn't exist in the relatively recent past. Do missionaries explain it to them? Do they understand through the language barrier?


i read a near-future sf novel once about a hunter-gatherer tribe in africa somewhere that had started attaching great ceremonial importance to the flare of the weekly freight run from the moon to mars (or something like that) which was visible from earth as a bright spark on the moon. they were very confused when a better engine was installed that didn't waste so much power, and sent someone out of their corner of the jungle to investigate....

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby alphadam » Tue Aug 27, 2013 10:17 pm UTC

I was in China in January. In my opinion: You cannot see the international space station from the Great Wall of China. You cannot even see the moon… or space. You can barely even see the Great Wall of China. :)
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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby Pfhorrest » Tue Aug 27, 2013 11:58 pm UTC

Klear wrote:
endolith wrote:I wonder what uncontacted tribes or even contacted hunter-gatherer tribes think of satellites. Surely they've noticed them, and that they didn't exist in the relatively recent past. Do missionaries explain it to them? Do they understand through the language barrier?

They are not more mysterious than stars and planets and meteorites...

Historically, the nature of planets was considered mysterious, as were meteorites. There's a bunch of points of light in the sky. Most of them move around in big loops at rest relative to each other like they were painted on a giant sphere spinning around the Earth. But some of them wobble around in funny loop-de-loos instead. What the heck's with that? They must be gods. And every now and then a new one shows up out of nowhere, streaks rapidly across the sky, and vanishes. Dude wtf?

Imagine that is your level of understanding, and has been the way the world has worked since the world began, and your grandfathers' grandfathers' grandfathers and so on all passed down stories about it being like that. Then in your father or grandfather's time, a bunch of really fast-moving points of light showed up, moving completely independently of the background sphere, like meteorites, except they went around and around and around in circles indefinitely. And there's more and more of them every year. What the hell is happening in the heavens? Have the gods gone mad? Are there new gods among them? Are they fighting? What will this mean for next season's harvest?
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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby WIMP » Wed Aug 28, 2013 2:37 am UTC

adavies42 wrote:
Flumble wrote:
adavies42 wrote:or just pull out a geiger counter—there should still be (relatively) short-lived stuff from atmospheric nuke testing in the 50’s and 60’s detectable everywhere

Can you distinguish that from naturally occuring (background) radiation?


hmm, geiger counter may have been an exaggeration—you may need a GC-MS. (i’m pretty sure there are isotopes with half-lives in the decade and century range that are only around right now because we made them.)


There are. You'd have to be very careful, though, and know what you were doing to make a bulletproof case. The precise isotope distribution would reveal decades-old fission explosions, a clear sign of intelligent activity, but a superficial analysis that only looks for short-lived isotopes would be consistent with a recent nearby supernova (a few dozen light years). In the grand scheme of things, that may in fact be a more likely explanation than recent but not contemporary nuclear testing (think about it: how many life-bearing planets have intelligent life that tested nuclear weapons a few decades ago then stopped, versus how many were near a recent supernova).

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby willpellmn » Wed Aug 28, 2013 4:40 am UTC

Who is this Borislav?

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby tsadi » Wed Aug 28, 2013 5:27 am UTC

So what's site who's source code is in all caps? Because I looked at http://contrailscience.com and it wasn't it.

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Re: What-if 0060: "Signs of Life"

Postby Klear » Wed Aug 28, 2013 8:25 am UTC

willpellmn wrote:Who is this Borislav?


The guy who asked the question.


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