What-If 0137: "New Horizons"

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Re: What-If 0137: New Horizons

Postby sevenperforce » Thu Jul 23, 2015 5:07 pm UTC

The way I've always heard the punchline, it's "The [i]Nova[i] never sold in South America because people thought the name meant 'doesn't go'." Which is a butt at Chevy, but also at the Spanish-speaking people in question.

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Re: What-If 0137: New Horizons

Postby Sableagle » Thu Jul 23, 2015 5:25 pm UTC

gmalivuk wrote:... the JFK German "I am a jelly doughnut" myth ...
That's an easy mistake to make for a native English-speaker. "Ich bin Berliner," "Ich bin Hamburger," "Ich bin Frankfurter" etc mean "I am of Berlin," "I am of ______," i.e. "I am a Berliner," "I am a Hamburgerian," "I am a Frankfurtonian" and so on (I'm kind of making these English versions up as I go along). "Ich bin ein Berliner," "Ich bin ein Hamburger," "Ich bin ein Frankfurter" and so on, the word-for-word translations of "I am a ______er," mean "I am a food item." The English equivalent is the difference between "I am Danish" and "I am a Danish (pastry)."
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Re: What-If 0137: New Horizons

Postby Sableagle » Thu Jul 23, 2015 5:29 pm UTC

For another silly vehicle name, the Fix or replace daily "Ka."

Now, maybe in some accents that sounds like "car," but to me those accents make it sound like this guy:

Image

In a more brisk accent, it sounds like the thing was meant for the Russian market.

"Ze Russian market? How doss it sound like it voss ment for ze Russian market?"

"Vy else vould zey call it Vodka?"
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Re: What-If 0137: New Horizons

Postby gmalivuk » Thu Jul 23, 2015 5:31 pm UTC

Sableagle wrote:
gmalivuk wrote:... the JFK German "I am a jelly doughnut" myth ...
That's an easy mistake to make for a native English-speaker. "Ich bin Berliner," "Ich bin Hamburger," "Ich bin Frankfurter" etc mean "I am of Berlin," "I am of ______," i.e. "I am a Berliner," "I am a Hamburgerian," "I am a Frankfurtonian" and so on (I'm kind of making these English versions up as I go along). "Ich bin ein Berliner," "Ich bin ein Hamburger," "Ich bin ein Frankfurter" and so on, the word-for-word translations of "I am a ______er," mean "I am a food item." The English equivalent is the difference between "I am Danish" and "I am a Danish (pastry)."
Except, no it isn't, because that's also a myth

http://www.snopes.com/language/misxlate/berliner.asp
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Re: What-If 0137: New Horizons

Postby cryptoengineer » Thu Jul 23, 2015 6:31 pm UTC

OK, it's now 9 days since the last What-If, which was several months since the one before.

Is 'What-If' now dead? On an irregular schedule? Going to go back to once a week?
Anyone know?

Whatever Randall wants to do is fine, of course. It's his strip, for all that I'd like him
to continue the feature.

But it would be nice to have some info.

ce

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Re: What-If 0137: New Horizons

Postby Sableagle » Thu Jul 23, 2015 6:32 pm UTC

This was eventually shortened to Berliner in some areas, but continues to be referred to as Pfannkuchen within Berlin.

The grammatical debate hinges on the article ein. In German, saying that you are a resident of an area generally dismisses the article prior to the noun


I caught snopes out talking bollocks once, by the way. Don't assume they're infallible.
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Re: What-If 0137: New Horizons

Postby speising » Thu Jul 23, 2015 7:52 pm UTC

Sableagle wrote:
This was eventually shortened to Berliner in some areas, but continues to be referred to as Pfannkuchen within Berlin.

The grammatical debate hinges on the article ein. In German, saying that you are a resident of an area generally dismisses the article prior to the noun


I caught snopes out talking bollocks once, by the way. Don't assume they're infallible.
that may be, but they're completely right on this one. FWIW, i could very well be caught saying "ich bin ein wiener."

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Re: What-If 0137: New Horizons

Postby gmalivuk » Thu Jul 23, 2015 8:02 pm UTC

Sableagle wrote:
This was eventually shortened to Berliner in some areas, but continues to be referred to as Pfannkuchen within Berlin.

The grammatical debate hinges on the article ein. In German, saying that you are a resident of an area generally dismisses the article prior to the noun


I caught snopes out talking bollocks once, by the way. Don't assume they're infallible.

I don't. My knowledge that both the Nova thing and the Berliner thing were myths was completely independent of Snopes. (I knew they were myths certainly before I knew about Snopes, and possibly before Snopes even existed.) That just served as an easy concise debunking link to include in my post.
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Re: What-If 0137: New Horizons

Postby Znirk » Fri Jul 24, 2015 12:30 pm UTC

Sableagle wrote:Now I wonder what "corsa" actually means, and whether it's related to "hare coursing" in some way.

Italian for 'drive', 'journey'; also the so-and-so-many-eth 'gear' in a transmission. And: yes-ish, I would guess that both this word and the English coursing are connected at least through the Latin currere 'to run' as a common ancestor.

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Re: What-If 0137: New Horizons

Postby Whizbang » Fri Jul 24, 2015 8:03 pm UTC

Wait. Was this whole thing just a publicity stunt for Heroes Reborn?

Spoiler:
Image

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Re: What-If 0137: New Horizons

Postby x7eggert » Sat Jul 25, 2015 11:51 am UTC

I guess there is a missing word.
"Hopefully, New Horizons is currently flying past Pluto. But don't worry; if it somehow hits your car instead, the US government will cover things ..."

... up?

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Re: What-If 0137: New Horizons

Postby dg61 » Sun Jul 26, 2015 7:13 pm UTC

x7eggert wrote:I guess there is a missing word.
"Hopefully, New Horizons is currently flying past Pluto. But don't worry; if it somehow hits your car instead, the US government will cover things ..."

... up?

It's just an Americanism for "to pay for" as in "cover the cost of".

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Re: What-If 0137: New Horizons

Postby Sableagle » Mon Jul 27, 2015 5:50 pm UTC

Literalism interruption: New Horizons is not and was not hopefully flying past Pluto. Unless New Horizons has achieved sentience, New Horizons never does anything in a hopeful way.

...

To attempt to answer the original question, I turned to Imperial College, London.

http://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEffects/

Going with a 2m-diameter object with a density of 114 kg/cu.m, travelling at 14km/s and coming down vertically:
The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 102000 meters = 333000 ft
The projectile bursts into a cloud of fragments at an altitude of 76700 meters = 252000 ft
The residual velocity of the projectile fragments after the burst is 13 km/s = 8.05 miles/s
The energy of the airburst is 6.66 x 109 Joules = 0.16 x 10-5 MegaTons.
The air blast at this location would not be noticed. (The overpressure is less than 1 Pa)


It's not hitting your car.

Image

Increasing density to 1140 kg/cu.m:
The projectile bursts into a cloud of fragments at an altitude of 56200 meters = 184000 ft
The air blast at this location would not be noticed. (The overpressure is less than 1 Pa)


Increasing density to 11400 kg/cu.m:
The projectile lands intact, with a velocity 8.27 km/s = 5.14 miles/s.
Transient Crater Diameter: 106 meters ( = 347 feet )
Transient Crater Depth: 37.5 meters ( = 123 feet )

Final Crater Diameter: 132 meters ( = 434 feet )
Final Crater Depth: 28.2 meters ( = 92.5 feet )

At this impact velocity ( < 15 km/s), little vaporization occurs; no fireball is created, therefore, there is no thermal radiation damage.
Richter Scale Magnitude: 2.3
Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 10 km:

I. Not felt except by a very few under especially favorable conditions.

II. Felt only by a few persons at rest, especially on upper floors of buildings.

The air blast will arrive approximately 30.3 seconds after impact.
Peak Overpressure: 405 Pa = 0.00405 bars = 0.0576 psi
Max wind velocity: 0.954 m/s = 2.13 mph
Sound Intensity: 52 dB (Loud as heavy traffic)
So if you increase its density 100-fold, making it as dense as ... er ... Technetium, yes it would get down through the atmosphere and obliterate your car. Going for solid gold at 19300 kg/cu.m makes little difference.

Let's try a different kind of "more." Back to 114 kg/cu.m, but let's make it 20m wide rather than 2m wide.
The projectile bursts into a cloud of fragments at an altitude of 43200 meters = 142000 ft
Max wind velocity: 0.00382 m/s = 0.00856 mph
Sound Intensity: 4 dB (Barely Audible)
Not much.

200m diameter?
The projectile bursts into a cloud of fragments at an altitude of 6760 meters = 22200 ft
The energy of the airburst is 4.68 x 1016 Joules = 1.12 x 101 MegaTons.
Max wind velocity: 109 m/s = 244 mph
Sound Intensity: 95 dB (May cause ear pain)

Multistory wall-bearing buildings will collapse.

Wood frame buildings will almost completely collapse.

Glass windows will shatter.

Up to 90 percent of trees blown down; remainder stripped of branches and leaves.
This would be spectacular. New Horizons would not, however, have actually hit your car.

2km diameter. The comet fragment at the end of a certain Hollywood film. That big.
The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 102000 meters = 333000 ft
The broken projectile fragments strike the ground in an ellipse of dimension 2.91 km by 2.91 km

Transient Crater Diameter: 6.07 km ( = 3.77 miles )
Transient Crater Depth: 2.15 km ( = 1.33 miles )

Final Crater Diameter: 7.72 km ( = 4.79 miles )
Final Crater Depth: 547 meters ( = 1800 feet )
The major seismic shaking will arrive approximately 2 seconds after impact.
Richter Scale Magnitude: 7.3
Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 10 km:

IX. General panic. Damage considerable in specially designed structures; well-designed frame structures thrown out of plumb. Damage great in substantial buildings, with partial collapse. Buildings shifted off foundations. Serious damage to reservoirs. Underground pipes broken. Conspicuous cracks in ground. In alluviated areas sand and mud ejected, earthquake fountains, sand craters.

X. Most masonry and frame structures destroyed with their foundations. Some well-built wooden structures and bridges destroyed. Serious damage to dams, dikes, embankments. Large landslides. Water thrown on banks of canals, rivers, lakes, etc. Sand and mud shifted horizontally on beaches and flat land. Rails bent slightly.

Average Ejecta Thickness: 12.1 meters ( = 39.8 feet )
Mean Fragment Diameter: 21.6 meters ( = 70.8 feet )

The air blast will arrive approximately 30.3 seconds after impact.
Max wind velocity: 1540 m/s = 3440 mph
Multistory wall-bearing buildings will collapse.
Wood frame buildings will almost completely collapse.
Multistory steel-framed office-type buildings will suffer extreme frame distortion, incipient collapse.
Highway truss bridges will collapse.
Highway girder bridges will collapse.
Glass windows will shatter.
Cars and trucks will be largely displaced and grossly distorted and will require rebuilding before use.
Up to 90 percent of trees blown down; remainder stripped of branches and leaves.
Not so much "What if New Horizons hit my car?" as "What if that stunned Star Destroyer from The Empire Strikes Back hit my car?"

One other kind of "more" to try: velocity. I'm already using a 90-degree impact angle, so I can't go for "more" there, but we can get silly with the velocity.

140 km/s:
The projectile bursts into a cloud of fragments at an altitude of 80100 meters = 263000 ft
The air blast at this location would not be noticed. (The overpressure is less than 1 Pa)


1400 km/s:
The projectile bursts into a cloud of fragments at an altitude of 80400 meters = 264000 ft
The air blast at this location would not be noticed. (The overpressure is less than 1 Pa)


14 Mm/s:
The projectile bursts into a cloud of fragments at an altitude of 80500 meters = 264000 ft
Sound Intensity: 28 dB (Easily Heard)


140 Mm/s:
The projectile bursts into a cloud of fragments at an altitude of 80500 meters = 264000 ft
Sound Intensity: 63 dB (Loud as heavy traffic)
Sheesh.

1.4 Gm/s ... which ... er ... 1,400,000,000 ... 299,792,458 ... heh. NOT happening. Let's see what IC say about it.
Please re-enter the following items:
Impact Velocity


Well, okay. 299,791 km/s:
Energy before atmospheric entry: 5.13 x 10^3 MegaTons TNT
The projectile bursts into a cloud of fragments at an altitude of 80500 meters = 264000 ft
The air blast will arrive approximately 4.1 minutes after impact.
Max wind velocity: 11.6 m/s = 26 mph
Sound Intensity: 74 dB (Loud as heavy traffic)
It's not hitting your car, dude.
Dude, it's not hitting your car.
It's not hitting your car, dude.
Dude, it's not hitting your car.
It's not hitting your car, dude.
Dude, it's not hitting your car.
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Re: What-If 0137: New Horizons

Postby rmsgrey » Mon Jul 27, 2015 7:00 pm UTC

I suspect the impact calculations start to break down before you get to 99.999% of the speed of light - we're not so much talking about an object as a cloud of particles that all happen to be moving in the same direction very, very quickly - they don't have time to separate much in the ~300 microseconds it takes them to reach the ground...

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Re: What-If 0137: New Horizons

Postby Sableagle » Mon Jul 27, 2015 10:17 pm UTC

Quite probably. The site does have a disclaimer about the accuracy of their predictions. Obviously, with impacts that happen "every 0.6 days" or something like that often, they have a lot of data and they can be pretty sure of their results, but with an impact of a magnitude that happens "once every 60 million years" or so there are fewer reliably documented observations of such impacts and they're less sure of the results. I was stretching it even further by using such a low density. The densities they offer in the drop-down menu are 1000, 1500, 3000 and 8000 kg/cu.m for water, porous rock, dense rock and iron. NH is only 114.

For that matter, the calculator is meant for realistic velocities:
The minimum impact velocity on Earth is 11 km/s. Typical impact velocities are 17 km/s for asteroids and 51 km/s for comets. The maximum Earth impact velocity for objects orbiting the sun is 72 km/s.
You can try putting a 10,000 km rock into a 1 km/s collision, ...
Depending on the direction and location of impact, the collision may cause a change in the length of the day of up to 12 hours.
Transient Crater Diameter: 1540 km ( = 957 miles )
Transient Crater Depth: 545 km ( = 338 miles )
Final Crater Diameter: 4030 km ( = 2500 miles )
Final Crater Depth: 3.6 km ( = 2.24 miles )
Richter Scale Magnitude: 14.0
Max wind velocity: 2330 m/s = 5210 mph
...but that's not realistic. Likewise, 300 km/s isn't realistic. It's possible they're using "K.E. = 0.5 m c^2" because that's close enough for "small" values of v, rather than "K.E. = 0.5 m c^3 / (c - v)" which you have to use for high values.

Code: Select all

Thing               Speed               c / ( c - v )
Walking             2 m/s               1.00000000667
Sprinting          10 m/s               1.00000003336
Motorway           30 m/s               1.00000010069
WW2 fighter       200 m/s               1.00000066713
Fighter jet       450 m/s               1.00000150104
Rifle bullet      970 m/s               1.00000323558
Starstreak          4 km/s              1.00001334274
Meteor             17 km/s              1.00005670911
Comet              51 km/s              1.00017014663
Ridiculous        1 Mm/s                1.00334680469
Ludicrous       10 Mm/s                 1.03450745430
Unbelievable   100 Mm/s                 1.50051939398
Incredible       200 Mm/s               3.00415947265
Inconceivable  250 Mm/s                 6.02084070644
Inconceivable 275 Mm/s                 12.09208292296
Inconceivable! 290 Mm/s                30.61462791058
Inconceivable! 295 Mm/s                62.55505170833
INCONCEIVABLE! 299 Mm/s               378.30706233012
INCONCE...*ack*...*thud*
He kept using that word. I do not think it means what he thought it meant.

Then again, the site does refuse to accept superluminal values of v, so maybe they *do* take that into account.

...

I still don't think New Horizons could hit your car, though.
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Re: What-If 0137: New Horizons

Postby grkvlt » Wed Jul 29, 2015 8:35 am UTC

gmalivuk wrote:[...] also a myth


Bearing that in mind; and also, moving further off topic, for which I apologise...

Sableagle wrote:That's an easy mistake to make [...] The English equivalent is the difference between "I am Danish" and "I am a Danish (pastry)."


Would a better equivalent not be something like "I am fully English" versus "I am a Full English" the latter being taken to imply a tasty breakfast?
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Re: What-If 0137: New Horizons

Postby grkvlt » Wed Jul 29, 2015 8:43 am UTC

Sableagle wrote:Literalism interruption: New Horizons is not and was not hopefully flying past Pluto. Unless New Horizons has achieved sentience, New Horizons never does anything in a hopeful way.


It absolutely was hopefully flying past Pluto. What it hopefully was not doing was flying hopefully past Pluto... ;)
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Re: What-If 0137: New Horizons

Postby gmalivuk » Wed Jul 29, 2015 12:18 pm UTC

Yeah, people get so bent out of shape when they see "hopefully" used as a sentence adverb rather than just an adverb of manner.

It's like complaining about, "They clearly painted over the window," on the basis that if they painted over it then nothing is transparent any more.
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Re: What-If 0137: New Horizons

Postby rmsgrey » Wed Jul 29, 2015 3:48 pm UTC

gmalivuk wrote:Yeah, people get so bent out of shape when they see "hopefully" used as a sentence adverb rather than just an adverb of manner.

It's like complaining about, "They clearly painted over the window," on the basis that if they painted over it then nothing is transparent any more.


Just because people usually call transparent paint something else, doesn't mean it's not painted on...

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Re: What-If 0137: New Horizons

Postby Steve the Pocket » Tue Aug 18, 2015 8:11 am UTC

No, no, it's a pun on "clearly".

And now I need to go alert an American buddy of mine on another forum who recently moved to Hamburg that he needs to change his forum title to "Ich bin ein Hamburger" because wow, that is just golden.
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Re: What-If 0137: New Horizons

Postby Neil_Boekend » Tue Aug 18, 2015 10:30 am UTC

Warning, on some forums that may get you the forum title "I am not a hamburger", or "I am a cheeseburger" or somesuch hilarity.
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Re: What-If 0137: New Horizons

Postby xtifr » Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:17 am UTC

Sableagle wrote:Now I wonder what "corsa" actually means, and whether it's related to "hare coursing" in some way.

It's obviously a description of a parallel encryption algorithm.
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