1225: "Ice Sheets"

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speising
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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby speising » Fri Jun 14, 2013 7:27 pm UTC

CocoaNutCakery wrote:
ctdonath wrote:To put in perspective how really warm things are now, vs how global temp usually is: http://ctdonath.blogspot.com/2012/02/gl ... ntext.html


That is an amusing source, but I'd like to see a graph of the past 3 million or so years, just to emphasize the fact that we're in an ice age, and we have been for a long frickin' time.

comparing the climate change with long term data may amuse some, but it doesn't touch the important point that rising temperatures make our planet less suited to us, who are accustomed to the current state.
yes, species did always die, and yes, there were warmer times than now, but this time, it's about us.
this time, its personal.

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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby CocoaNutCakery » Fri Jun 14, 2013 8:25 pm UTC

speising wrote:
CocoaNutCakery wrote:
ctdonath wrote:To put in perspective how really warm things are now, vs how global temp usually is: http://ctdonath.blogspot.com/2012/02/gl ... ntext.html


That is an amusing source, but I'd like to see a graph of the past 3 million or so years, just to emphasize the fact that we're in an ice age, and we have been for a long frickin' time.

comparing the climate change with long term data may amuse some, but it doesn't touch the important point that rising temperatures make our planet less suited to us, who are accustomed to the current state.
yes, species did always die, and yes, there were warmer times than now, but this time, it's about us.
this time, its personal.


But we're not talking about 500 degree weather, here. There are people currently living in the kind of climates we'd be facing. Humans actually evolved in those climates, but migrated to colder climates.

So... no. The planet would actually be more suited to us.

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Pfhorrest
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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby Pfhorrest » Fri Jun 14, 2013 8:33 pm UTC

This is why the controversy over anthropomorphic climate change baffles me. The fact that there is a political controversy at all, I mean.

Climates change, and whether or not we are responsible for that, we are the ones who have to deal with that. We need to develop the ability to either control Earth's climate, or to adapt ourselves to wildly different climates; or maybe best, do both. Whether or not we are the cause of any specific recent changes in climate, it's undeniable that we have the ability to influence the climate, and we need to refine that ability to direct it in ways that best suit us.

The exact technologies we need to do this are also the beginnings of the technologies we will need to have human settlements anywhere beyond the Earth, seeing as how everywhere not on Earth is vastly more inhospitable than anywhere on Earth has ever been. If we ever want to have people living comfortably and permanently on Mars, we need the ability to have people living comfortably and permanently in the middle of the Sahara, or Antarctica, or the bottom of the ocean, too. And those are far easier targets. A city or country in an already- hospitable climate that doesn't depend on outside resources or waste dumps is an even easier target.

We've got a long long way to go, and basic environmental management is just the first baby step along the way.
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speising
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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby speising » Fri Jun 14, 2013 8:41 pm UTC

CocoaNutCakery wrote:
speising wrote:
CocoaNutCakery wrote:
ctdonath wrote:To put in perspective how really warm things are now, vs how global temp usually is: http://ctdonath.blogspot.com/2012/02/gl ... ntext.html


That is an amusing source, but I'd like to see a graph of the past 3 million or so years, just to emphasize the fact that we're in an ice age, and we have been for a long frickin' time.

comparing the climate change with long term data may amuse some, but it doesn't touch the important point that rising temperatures make our planet less suited to us, who are accustomed to the current state.
yes, species did always die, and yes, there were warmer times than now, but this time, it's about us.
this time, its personal.


But we're not talking about 500 degree weather, here. There are people currently living in the kind of climates we'd be facing. Humans actually evolved in those climates, but migrated to colder climates.

So... no. The planet would actually be more suited to us.


that's the fallacy of comparing local climate with global.
putting more energy into a system makes it more chaotic. we see already record hurricanes, floods, heat waves etc. all around the world.
melting ice caps may expose a green greenland, but that will be small consolation to the people in the netherlands.

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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby Skorpion » Fri Jun 14, 2013 9:15 pm UTC

CocoaNutCakery wrote:
speising wrote:
CocoaNutCakery wrote:
ctdonath wrote:To put in perspective how really warm things are now, vs how global temp usually is: http://ctdonath.blogspot.com/2012/02/gl ... ntext.html


That is an amusing source, but I'd like to see a graph of the past 3 million or so years, just to emphasize the fact that we're in an ice age, and we have been for a long frickin' time.

comparing the climate change with long term data may amuse some, but it doesn't touch the important point that rising temperatures make our planet less suited to us, who are accustomed to the current state.
yes, species did always die, and yes, there were warmer times than now, but this time, it's about us.
this time, its personal.


But we're not talking about 500 degree weather, here. There are people currently living in the kind of climates we'd be facing. Humans actually evolved in those climates, but migrated to colder climates.

So... no. The planet would actually be more suited to us.

Says who? Humans only reached behavioural modernity 50,000 years ago. At that point, we had already migrated to colder climates, and the global temperature was 5-10 degrees colder.
The details are trivial and pointless. The reasons, as always, purely human ones.

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Skorpion
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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby Skorpion » Fri Jun 14, 2013 10:31 pm UTC

It's also worth pointing out the inherent flaw in using only one core sample as your data set.

In the link we're discussing, the warmest time in the last 1000 years is around 1600AD. In 1600AD, the planet was actually experiencing a little ice age.

That's clearly an anomaly in that particular data set, and it disappears when more samples are included.
The details are trivial and pointless. The reasons, as always, purely human ones.

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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby addams » Sat Jun 15, 2013 3:42 am UTC

CocoaNutCakery wrote:
speising wrote:
CocoaNutCakery wrote:
ctdonath wrote:To put in perspective how really warm things are now, vs how global temp usually is: http://ctdonath.blogspot.com/2012/02/gl ... ntext.html


That is an amusing source, but I'd like to see a graph of the past 3 million or so years, just to emphasize the fact that we're in an ice age, and we have been for a long frickin' time.

comparing the climate change with long term data may amuse some, but it doesn't touch the important point that rising temperatures make our planet less suited to us, who are accustomed to the current state.
yes, species did always die, and yes, there were warmer times than now, but this time, it's about us.
this time, its personal.


But we're not talking about 500 degree weather, here. There are people currently living in the kind of climates we'd be facing. Humans actually evolved in those climates, but migrated to colder climates.

So... no. The planet would actually be more suited to us.

Yes. The water will keep us cool enough.
Liguid water is Fine with me. I like it.

Sure we are very used to all the ice.
I, for one, will not miss it.

Tropics Every Where?
Well? That will Never happen.

There will be longer days and shorter days in the far North and far South.
Always. Well; Until some other strange thing happens.

Global warming is One of the Hot Button Issues of our Time.

I am in favor of Global Warming. I am not in favor of irresponsible behavior.
We can do everything in our power to be responsible to and for one another.

We can watch as the Ocean boil away into Steam that Rains out over the Mountains and Deserts before running back into the Oceans again.

pfft. We only have twenty years to figure out what to do about the Asteroid that is on its way.
We can't seem to agree on Anything! How will we face a Real Threat? Not very well, is my guess.

Most will handle it the exact same way we handle Global Warming. Poorly.

So, funny. Some people are more than ready to shoulder the responsibility of doing What They Can.
So, Sad. Some people blame the Liberal Media. And; Are willing to Kill for the Right to be Wrong.

Ice fifty feet thick? It happens. I have seen it.
Some people Love that stuff. It makes a sweet idea.

The reality of that much ice in one place is not so nice for a simple human being like me.
I don't like it. It is pretty from the Air. It is cold and forbidding from the ground.
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Some of us see The Gutter.
Some of us see The Stars.
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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby AYC » Sat Jun 15, 2013 7:03 am UTC

Canada, it seems, has and always will be colder than the States. :wink:
Last edited by AYC on Sat Jun 29, 2013 6:29 pm UTC, edited 2 times in total.

Inebriator
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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby Inebriator » Sat Jun 15, 2013 12:31 pm UTC

Came to post that it is roughly analogous to ratio of Stanley Cup victories. Was beaten to it.

So I'll say that it starts off looking like a much better analogy to ratio of Stanley Cup Finals appearances:

Montreal: 34 (3300m)
Toronto: 21 (2100m)
Boston: 19 (1250m)
Chicago: 12 (900m)

Clearly the Pens should have won.

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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby LtNOWIS » Sat Jun 15, 2013 2:11 pm UTC

orthogon wrote:I'm not even convinced the city is called New York City. Are we saying the state was named after a city in England, then the city was named after the state?

New York wasn't named after the city of York in England. It was named after the Duke of York, who would later become James II of England.

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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby Klear » Sat Jun 15, 2013 2:32 pm UTC

LtNOWIS wrote:
orthogon wrote:I'm not even convinced the city is called New York City. Are we saying the state was named after a city in England, then the city was named after the state?

New York wasn't named after the city of York in England. It was named after the Duke of York, who would later become James II of England.


Why isn't it called just "York" then?

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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby thevicente » Sat Jun 15, 2013 3:48 pm UTC

jgh wrote:All four pictures imply all four locations are the same height above datum sea level.


If only they had a label "compared with modern skylines" instead of "compared to the datum sea level". oh wait.

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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby ijuin » Sat Jun 15, 2013 5:05 pm UTC

Klear wrote:
LtNOWIS wrote:
orthogon wrote:I'm not even convinced the city is called New York City. Are we saying the state was named after a city in England, then the city was named after the state?

New York wasn't named after the city of York in England. It was named after the Duke of York, who would later become James II of England.


Why isn't it called just "York" then?


There was already a York, which was ostensibly part of the dominion of the Duke of York. Thus, the colony added to his dominion in the New Worlwas named New York.

On the other hand, maybe we should have stuck with the names that the previous owners used, and called the land New Netherlands and the city New Amsterdam.

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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby Klear » Sun Jun 16, 2013 11:12 am UTC

ijuin wrote:
Klear wrote:
LtNOWIS wrote:
orthogon wrote:I'm not even convinced the city is called New York City. Are we saying the state was named after a city in England, then the city was named after the state?

New York wasn't named after the city of York in England. It was named after the Duke of York, who would later become James II of England.


Why isn't it called just "York" then?


There was already a York, which was ostensibly part of the dominion of the Duke of York. Thus, the colony added to his dominion in the New Worlwas named New York.

On the other hand, maybe we should have stuck with the names that the previous owners used, and called the land New Netherlands and the city New Amsterdam.


Aha! So the city of York did play a role when naming New York.

Anyway, my favorite joke when somebody is talking about York - it used to be called Amsterdam, right?

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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby da Doctah » Sun Jun 16, 2013 4:38 pm UTC

Pfhorrest wrote:This is why the controversy over anthropomorphic climate change baffles me.


Anthropogenic, maybe, but anthropomorphic?

I haven't heard about a sudden rash of spontaneously-appearing ice sculptures.

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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby jgh » Sun Jun 16, 2013 10:26 pm UTC

drachefly wrote:
jgh wrote:All four pictures imply all four locations are the same height above datum sea level.


No, they don't.
Yes they do. I've zoomed in to the picture and there's 13 pixels of "bedrock" under each city. All four cities are the same height above some arbitary datum.

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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby brenok » Sun Jun 16, 2013 10:33 pm UTC

jgh wrote:
drachefly wrote:
jgh wrote:All four pictures imply all four locations are the same height above datum sea level.


No, they don't.
Yes they do. I've zoomed in to the picture and there's 13 pixels of "bedrock" under each city. All four cities are the same height above some arbitary datum.


I assume Randall just put all cities on the same height to facilitate visualization?

And what is that "datum" you talk about?

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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby rmsgrey » Sun Jun 16, 2013 10:59 pm UTC

brenok wrote:
jgh wrote:
drachefly wrote:
jgh wrote:All four pictures imply all four locations are the same height above datum sea level.


No, they don't.
Yes they do. I've zoomed in to the picture and there's 13 pixels of "bedrock" under each city. All four cities are the same height above some arbitary datum.


I assume Randall just put all cities on the same height to facilitate visualization?

And what is that "datum" you talk about?


Maybe it's a high-precision geoid?

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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby Copper Bezel » Sun Jun 16, 2013 11:53 pm UTC

"Datum sea level" is apparently a deprecated standard for sea level. I honestly thought that jgh might be getting really granular with the data and actually checking the provided elevations, but the source paper's data simply doesn't get that granular - I don't even know why Randall's numbers are as specific as they are. And the little bar at the bottom of each skyline really does seem to be there just for aesthetic purposes to represent a "ground level."

Looking at elevations on the Wikipedia pages, Toronto's gives a crazy range, but the margin for error in interpreting the original data for the ice sheet thickness is still huge by comparison, and the other elevations vary by much less than the height of the buildings (like, by 100m, where the CN Tower, that shish-kebab-looking-thing in the Toronto image, is 500m.)
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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby wisnij » Wed Jun 19, 2013 3:57 am UTC

pelrigg wrote:Title text: "Data adapted from 'The Laurentide and Innuitian ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum' by A.S. Dyke et. al., which was way better than the sequels 'The Laurentide and Innuitian ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum: The Meltdown' and 'The Laurentide and Innuitian ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum: Continental Drift'."

That being said, most climatologists agree that the series really began hitting its stride with the publication of "The Laurentide and Innuitian ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Goblet of Fire".
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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby arthurd006_5 » Wed Jun 19, 2013 7:01 am UTC

LazyMonk wrote:I gotta say those building have withstood the pressure surprisingly well. compliments to the builders.

And the horizontal forces.

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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby arthurd006_5 » Wed Jun 19, 2013 7:13 am UTC

CocoaNutCakery wrote:But we're not talking about 500 degree weather, here. There are people currently living in the kind of climates we'd be facing. Humans actually evolved in those climates, but migrated to colder climates.

So... no. The planet would actually be more suited to us.

I'm picking that the last of us will die when the thoroughly carbonated oceans die and poison us with sulfur compounds.

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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby arthurd006_5 » Wed Jun 19, 2013 7:21 am UTC

addams wrote:We only have twenty years to figure out what to do about the Asteroid that is on its way.
We can't seem to agree on Anything! How will we face a Real Threat? Not very well, is my guess.

Unfortunately, the subsystem for detecting distant threats is still in beta:
http://old.richarddawkins.net/articles/775

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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby ijuin » Wed Jun 19, 2013 11:47 pm UTC

Beyond the mere perception of climate change as "distant, therefore unimportant" is also the view of "I'll be dead by the time it gets bad, so it's somebody else's problem and not mine". We can see such attitudes on a shorter timescale with politicians who will disregard any problems that can be put off until after they are out of office, especially in offices where they will not be running for re-election due to term limits. This is often referred to in American politics as "kicking the can down the road", and is focused on avoiding guilt and blame more than caring about the actual issue.

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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby Klear » Wed Jun 19, 2013 11:57 pm UTC

ijuin wrote:Beyond the mere perception of climate change as "distant, therefore unimportant" is also the view of "I'll be dead by the time it gets bad, so it's somebody else's problem and not mine". We can see such attitudes on a shorter timescale with politicians who will disregard any problems that can be put off until after they are out of office, especially in offices where they will not be running for re-election due to term limits. This is often referred to in American politics as "kicking the can down the road", and is focused on avoiding guilt and blame more than caring about the actual issue.


Even worse is when I'm putting off work, thinking that it's my future self is going to have to deal with it, not me...

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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby Copper Bezel » Thu Jun 20, 2013 12:15 am UTC

Sometimes, when you know that your future self is more capable and motivated than you are, that's okay. = )
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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby ijuin » Thu Jun 20, 2013 12:27 am UTC

Well, I meant that we often justify ignoring problems based on the idea that it is NOT our own future selves that will have to deal with it--if it is somebody else (especially somebody that we have no emotional bond with), then we can tell ourselves that we ourselves have no obligation to deal with it at all, and it becomes Somebody Else's Problem.

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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby Copper Bezel » Thu Jun 20, 2013 1:29 am UTC

That's why Klear's scenario is worse - though depending on how you score them, it might just redistribute the "bad" from "evil" to "stupid" and break even. Procrastination (like the typing of this post when I should be grading) is at least taking ownership of the future problem.
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Re: 1225: "Ice Sheets"

Postby Klear » Thu Jun 20, 2013 10:19 am UTC

Copper Bezel wrote:Sometimes, when you know that your future self is more capable and motivated than you are, that's okay. = )


Nah, my future self is a lazy bastard who's gonna put off the work even more. I don't blame him. He's (will be?) just tired of being handed over work that should long since been done by his past selves and hopes somebody else will deal with it.

And my past selves often have good reason to put off work, usually because they're hungover after their past self spent the previous night in a pub.

ijuin wrote:Well, I meant that we often justify ignoring problems based on the idea that it is NOT our own future selves that will have to deal with it--if it is somebody else (especially somebody that we have no emotional bond with), then we can tell ourselves that we ourselves have no obligation to deal with it at all, and it becomes Somebody Else's Problem.


I don't have a particularly strong emotional connection with my future self. That means I can justify ignoring problems as per your example and still have to deal with them later...


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