
Alt-text: Can this PLEASE be drawing with replacement?
An unexpected tURN of events

I wonder what BHG would have pulled out of his imaginary urn.
Moderators: Moderators General, Prelates, Magistrates
slinches wrote:Also, the OTC isn't a disease. In fact, it's the cure. As we all know, Time heals all wounds.
eSOANEM wrote:If Fonzie's on the order of 100 zeptokelvin, I think he has bigger problems than difracting through doors.
xtifr wrote:... and orthogon merely sounds undecided.
orthogon wrote:What's an imaginary urn?
orthogon wrote:What's an imaginary urn?
xtifr wrote:... and orthogon merely sounds undecided.
orthogon wrote:What's an imaginary urn?
Farabor wrote:orthogon wrote:What's an imaginary urn?
A real urn times i, of course.
snowyowl wrote:Imagine that you're drawing at random from an urn containing fifteen balls - six red and nine black. You're drawing without replacement. At any time, you may guess what colour the next ball you draw will be. If you guess correctly, you win. If you guess incorrectly, you lose.
What strategy maximises your chances of winning?
snowyowl wrote:Imagine that you're drawing at random from an urn containing fifteen balls - six red and nine black. You're drawing without replacement. At any time, you may guess what colour the next ball you draw will be. If you guess correctly, you win. If you guess incorrectly, you lose.
What strategy maximises your chances of winning?
Eebster the Great wrote:snowyowl wrote:Imagine that you're drawing at random from an urn containing fifteen balls - six red and nine black. You're drawing without replacement. At any time, you may guess what colour the next ball you draw will be. If you guess correctly, you win. If you guess incorrectly, you lose.
What strategy maximises your chances of winning?
If by "maximize your chances of winning" you mean have the highest winning percentage, then of course you wait until the last ball to guess. If you mean "maximize the number of times you win," then of course you guess every time that you will pick whichever color there are more of left. I'm not sure what else you could mean.
But I will pose a similar problem. Imagine that you're drawing at random from an urn containing fifteen balls—six red and nine black. You're drawing without replacement. Each time before you pick, you may guess that you will pick a red ball, guess that you will pick a black ball, or choose not to guess. If you do not guess, the game continues and you draw another ball. If you guess correctly, you get one point and continue to draw. If you guess incorrectly or run out of balls, the game ends.
What strategy maximizes your expected score at the end of the game?
cellocgw wrote:Farabor wrote:orthogon wrote:What's an imaginary urn?
A real urn times i, of course.
i*urn ?
No I'm not telling you how much I earn![]()
Is this Randall's most urn-est attempt yet?
xtifr wrote:... and orthogon merely sounds undecided.
cellocgw wrote:Farabor wrote:orthogon wrote:What's an imaginary urn?
A real urn times i, of course.
i*urn ?
No I'm not telling you how much I earn![]()
Is this Randall's most urn-est attempt yet?
snowyowl wrote:Eebster the Great wrote:snowyowl wrote:Imagine that you're drawing at random from an urn containing fifteen balls - six red and nine black. You're drawing without replacement. At any time, you may guess what colour the next ball you draw will be. If you guess correctly, you win. If you guess incorrectly, you lose.
What strategy maximises your chances of winning?
If by "maximize your chances of winning" you mean have the highest winning percentage, then of course you wait until the last ball to guess. If you mean "maximize the number of times you win," then of course you guess every time that you will pick whichever color there are more of left. I'm not sure what else you could mean.
Ah, my mistake: I'd forgotten part of the problem. What I meant to say was that you can only choose to guess that the ball is red, or choose not to guess at all. So, if there are only black balls left, then you have zero chance of winning.
HES wrote:Why are there balls in an urn? The I've only ever encountered it as balls/counters/whatever in a bag.
PinkShinyRose wrote:I'm glad they use vases for statistics here.
orthogon wrote:Are we talking about an imaginary Greek urn? What's an imaginary Greek urn?
[De-edited from my original post]
Jackpot777 wrote:I wonder if the Um Problem can be used to solve the problem of improper keming.
Flumble wrote:Luckily in dutch statistics we often speak of a vase, pot or bag containing coloured balls —the vase and pot being more common, even though a lot of vases and pots are transparent, whereas the bag is almost exclusively opaque.
xtifr wrote:... and orthogon merely sounds undecided.
Flumble wrote:Luckily in dutch statistics we often speak of a vase, pot or bag containing coloured balls —the vase and pot being more common, even though a lot of vases and pots are transparent, whereas the bag is almost exclusively opaque.Jackpot777 wrote:I wonder if the Um Problem can be used to solve the problem of improper keming.
What's a problern?
Flumble wrote:... a vase, pot or bag ...
xtifr wrote:... and orthogon merely sounds undecided.
moxfyre wrote:This same joke, basically, appears in the book Naked Statistics, where the author pokes fun at how the word urn is almost never used outside of the funeral business and probability problems.
orthogon wrote: I know that "vayz" is the US pronunciation, but I've always wondered whether anybody says "vorz", or whether he just added that for rhythm and comic effect.
Lenoxus wrote:Meanwhile… how does she know the ashes are her grandfather's?
Eebster the Great wrote:orthogon wrote: I know that "vayz" is the US pronunciation, but I've always wondered whether anybody says "vorz", or whether he just added that for rhythm and comic effect.
/veɪs/ (rhymes with "space") is the most common American English pronunciation, with /veɪz/ (rhymes with "maze") a distant second, and /vɑːz/ (rhymes with the first syllable of "plaza") only heard occasionally. I have never heard /vɔərs/, but I have heard that vowel treated similarly in "wash" (/wɔərʃ/).
E: Left out /veɪz/ somehow.
Return to “Individual XKCD Comic Threads”
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 82 guests