1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

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1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby The Moomin » Fri Nov 20, 2015 11:36 am UTC

Image

Title Text: You know what they say--if you don't like the weather here in the Solar System, just wait five billion years.

I reckon we will have provoked extra-terrestrial intelligence into destroying us way before then. This is a tad too optimistic for my liking.
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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby Echo244 » Fri Nov 20, 2015 11:46 am UTC

Why are you assuming the flying saucers are extra-terrestrial? Bits of humanity are perfectly capable of attacking other bits of humanity with the shiniest fanciest thing they can get their hands on, and I don't expect that to change in the next 15 million years, even if we do finally develop flying saucers by then...
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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby Wooloomooloo » Fri Nov 20, 2015 11:50 am UTC

Typical useless short-term forecasts. What if I need reliable data for the next five big bangs?!?

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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby Stotherd » Fri Nov 20, 2015 11:50 am UTC

If humanity is still using Fahrenheit at all by then, we deserve to be destroyed.

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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby xsoft » Fri Nov 20, 2015 11:58 am UTC

Is there a version with °C ? :-)

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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby Copper Bezel » Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:00 pm UTC

Echo244 wrote:Why are you assuming the flying saucers are extra-terrestrial? Bits of humanity are perfectly capable of attacking other bits of humanity with the shiniest fanciest thing they can get their hands on, and I don't expect that to change in the next 15 million years, even if we do finally develop flying saucers by then...

It's actually three million years, right? Each box is (unit) later from the previous, starting with Today, and the five boxes are the five times chosen? (Destruction of Earth by the sun would be only three billion years out by that model, but.)
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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby Arakun » Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:03 pm UTC

Stotherd wrote:If humanity is still using Fahrenheit at all by then, we deserve to be destroyed.


It would have been amusing if the last panel of the 5-year forecast was in Celsius. :)

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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby Diadem » Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:04 pm UTC

So why is the sun still there after 1 trillion years? I'm guessing the first column supposed to be 'now'? In that case it's a 4-day forecast isn't it?
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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby The Moomin » Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:09 pm UTC

Echo244 wrote:Why are you assuming the flying saucers are extra-terrestrial? Bits of humanity are perfectly capable of attacking other bits of humanity with the shiniest fanciest thing they can get their hands on, and I don't expect that to change in the next 15 million years, even if we do finally develop flying saucers by then...


I can't really see us getting away from cylindrical/triangular aircraft/spacecraft. I don't know why, but perfectly circular craft don't seem human to me.
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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby rmsgrey » Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:09 pm UTC

Diadem wrote:So why is the sun still there after 1 trillion years? I'm guessing the first column supposed to be 'now'? In that case it's a 4-day forecast isn't it?


It forecasts the weather for 5 different days...

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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby orthogon » Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:11 pm UTC

I'm glad Randall didn't do a five decade or five century forecast, thus avoiding the thread turning into an AGW debate.

Oh bugger, maybe I shouldn't have said that.
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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby Copper Bezel » Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:12 pm UTC

The Moomin wrote:
Echo244 wrote:Why are you assuming the flying saucers are extra-terrestrial? Bits of humanity are perfectly capable of attacking other bits of humanity with the shiniest fanciest thing they can get their hands on, and I don't expect that to change in the next 15 million years, even if we do finally develop flying saucers by then...


I can't really see us getting away from cylindrical/triangular aircraft/spacecraft. I don't know why, but perfectly circular craft don't seem human to me.

A revolution of uplifted starfish laughing at our feeble bilateral symmetry, then?
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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby cellocgw » Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:19 pm UTC

Just dropping by to say Hey! What's with the sig figs in square (5,4) ?
edited to get the right coordinates

And btw does anyone really believe the 5-day forecasts we get now? The fifth day is dang near to being wrong more than 50% of the time.
Last edited by cellocgw on Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:52 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby rhomboidal » Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:28 pm UTC

So we better take gloves AND a scarf during the heat death of the universe.

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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby Echo244 » Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:50 pm UTC

Copper Bezel wrote:
Echo244 wrote:Why are you assuming the flying saucers are extra-terrestrial? Bits of humanity are perfectly capable of attacking other bits of humanity with the shiniest fanciest thing they can get their hands on, and I don't expect that to change in the next 15 million years, even if we do finally develop flying saucers by then...

It's actually three million years, right? Each box is (unit) later from the previous, starting with Today, and the five boxes are the five times chosen? (Destruction of Earth by the sun would be only three billion years out by that model, but.)


True. Only three million years to wait, then.

Anyway, perfectly disc-shaped craft might be designed at some point. If we ever reach the point where we've got enough lift ability to get pretty much anything to function as an aircraft/spaceship, why not design things to look like all the spaceships from retro-science-fiction?
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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby redbird71 » Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:59 pm UTC

Depressing. Whats the sense in going on struggling when in 2-3 billion years it's all going to be ashes anyways...

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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby TheCycoONE » Fri Nov 20, 2015 1:23 pm UTC

redbird71 wrote:Depressing. Whats the sense in going on struggling when in 2-3 billion years it's all going to be ashes anyways...


Well we leave before that happens, then we have a few more years to figure out how to summon Maxwell's demon to save us before the heat death of the universe.

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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby jc » Fri Nov 20, 2015 1:30 pm UTC

Arakun wrote:
Stotherd wrote:If humanity is still using Fahrenheit at all by then, we deserve to be destroyed.


It would have been amusing if the last panel of the 5-year forecast was in Celsius. :)


My thought was that in that line, the 2nd should have a C after the number, the 3rd and 4th should have random other letters, and the 5th should use a totally strange writing system. But your suggestion is just as funny, and probably more accurate in whatever the US is called then.

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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby CharlieP » Fri Nov 20, 2015 1:37 pm UTC

I can't be the only person who instinctively picked up his mouse to click on the button to change to Celsius.
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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby jasc15 » Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:08 pm UTC

I like how it takes 4 trillion years for the temp to drop a single degree.

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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby The Moomin » Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:12 pm UTC

Echo244 wrote:
Copper Bezel wrote:
Echo244 wrote:Why are you assuming the flying saucers are extra-terrestrial? Bits of humanity are perfectly capable of attacking other bits of humanity with the shiniest fanciest thing they can get their hands on, and I don't expect that to change in the next 15 million years, even if we do finally develop flying saucers by then...

It's actually three million years, right? Each box is (unit) later from the previous, starting with Today, and the five boxes are the five times chosen? (Destruction of Earth by the sun would be only three billion years out by that model, but.)


True. Only three million years to wait, then.

Anyway, perfectly disc-shaped craft might be designed at some point. If we ever reach the point where we've got enough lift ability to get pretty much anything to function as an aircraft/spaceship, why not design things to look like all the spaceships from retro-science-fiction?


I hope we have an art deco future based on the stylings of the Chrysler Atlantique.
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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby jonhaug » Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:17 pm UTC

Isn't "forever entropy increase" yesterday's science? I reckon that there is an ever shiny future for all friendly intelligent beings.

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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby belliott4488 » Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:47 pm UTC

Hm ... I had never noticed before that after an initial dip, the accuracy of forecasts increases as you go further into the future.
;-)

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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby pkcommando » Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:17 pm UTC

Is anyone else wondering if each day this comic will show a different 5-day forecast?

And, if it wasn't in your head before, enjoy the wait until tomorrow...
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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby Whizbang » Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:22 pm UTC

Anyone know what the forecast is for the negative zip codes?

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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby Heimhenge » Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:30 pm UTC

cellocgw wrote:Just dropping by to say Hey! What's with the sig figs in square (4,4) ?


And btw does anyone really believe the 5-day forecasts we get now? The fifth day is dang near to being wrong more than 50% of the time.


Shirley you meant (5,4)?

I trust the forecast 3 days out, and I certainly look at day 4 & 5 but never trust them. Despite the supercomputers used by NWS, they're more often than not just plain wrong. I tend to notice more than most, since I'm responsible for planning (and canceling) astronomy events for our club. [/rant]

And while we're on the topic ... a wise meteorologist once told me: If you always predicted tomorrow's weather would be the same as today's you'd be correct about 80% of the time. [citation needed, as I never really checked that, but it sounds about right]

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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby yakkoTDI » Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:03 pm UTC

CharlieP wrote:I can't be the only person who instinctively picked up his mouse to click on the button to change to Celsius.


Actually you can be but probably are not.

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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby sotanaht » Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:07 pm UTC

Stotherd wrote:If humanity is still using Fahrenheit at all by then, we deserve to be destroyed.


Fahrenheit is perfectly viable for measuring ambient weather temperatures. The 0 and 100 are actually useful in that situation, with 0 being very cold, while 100 is very hot. Both require extra precautions but are completely survivable. Compare Celsius where 0 is a bit chilly and 100 is near-instantly lethal. Not as much granularity in the measurements either, with less than a 50 degree spread of commonly useful numbers and entire seasons of less than 10 degree variation.

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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby The Moomin » Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:11 pm UTC

On reflection, I'm disappointed the five million year forecast didn't include a flooded earth with a boy floating in a barrel while a ferret flies overhead.

Or perhaps a future where the earth is over-run by small red spiders.
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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby MrT2 » Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:16 pm UTC

Where I am, the forecast for tomorrow is often at least partially wrong, and amusingly the supercomputers doing the forecast (UK Met Office) are less than 20 miles from here...

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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby Flumble » Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:54 pm UTC

orthogon wrote:I'm glad Randall didn't do a five decade or five century forecast, thus avoiding the thread turning into an AGW debate.

Oh bugger, maybe I shouldn't have said that.

No one has taken the bait responded yet, so I'll repeat the message.

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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby rmsgrey » Fri Nov 20, 2015 5:22 pm UTC

sotanaht wrote:
Stotherd wrote:If humanity is still using Fahrenheit at all by then, we deserve to be destroyed.


Fahrenheit is perfectly viable for measuring ambient weather temperatures. The 0 and 100 are actually useful in that situation, with 0 being very cold, while 100 is very hot. Both require extra precautions but are completely survivable. Compare Celsius where 0 is a bit chilly and 100 is near-instantly lethal. Not as much granularity in the measurements either, with less than a 50 degree spread of commonly useful numbers and entire seasons of less than 10 degree variation.


Alternatively: -10 Celsius is cold, 0 is chilly, 10 is cool, 20 is warm, 30 is hot, and 40 is survivable but requires precautions, and a difference of 1 degree is just about noticeable. Single digit temperatures are routine, and you never need more than two digits. For temperatures in Fahrenheit, you have to allow for a third digit, and desirable ambient temperatures are up in a range where numbers are getting fairly abstract, rather than being definite things. Does anyone notice the difference between 82 and 83?

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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby Kit. » Fri Nov 20, 2015 5:26 pm UTC

sotanaht wrote:Fahrenheit is perfectly viable for measuring ambient weather temperatures.

Could be, if zero for Celsius didn't have that convenient (and very important) meaning that "the water is freezing".

And, of course, Fahrenheit is worse for practically everything else.

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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby Flumble » Fri Nov 20, 2015 5:58 pm UTC

We already have a superior temperature scale. From the depths of hell last year, I humbly present you:
SCSimmons wrote:Fiddled around with possibilities for a bit. I thought milli-electron volts per molecule (of an ideal perfect gas) looked pretty handy for everyday purposes. The unit turns out to be just under 8ºC and almost exactly 14ºF, so it's not very fine-grained; reporting to tenths of a degree [sic] would give you comparable precision to what you see in weather forecasts, but the comfort categories can be that wide & still work well. I'll call this unit the Maxwell ºM [sic]; he got a nice law named after him, but as far as I know, never a unit, the poor guy.

Code: Select all

ºM      ºC       ºF

30    -41     -41
31    -33     -27
32    -25     -13
33    -17       1
34    -10      15
35     -2      29
36      6      43
37     14      57
38     21      71
39     29      85
40     37      98
41     45     112


Water freezes at 35.2ºM [sic] and boils at 48.1ºM [sic] at standard pressure. And normal human body temperature is ... hold on, I know 98.6 ºF is an outdated rule of thumb, let me look up the real number & variance ...

Huh. Normal human body temperature is ... 40.00 +/- .02 ºM [sic]. :shock: This must mean something, right? :)


35M is cold, 36M is chilly, high 37 through 38M is acceptable, 39M is a beach party, 40M is damn hot (and his/her body temperature).

For Canadians and Russians: 34M is chilly, 35M is acceptable, 36M is warm, 37M and above is damn hot.
For Mexicans and Australians: 37M and below is cold, 38M is chilly, 39M and 40M is acceptable and 41M is warm.


Kit. wrote:
sotanaht wrote:Fahrenheit is perfectly viable for measuring ambient weather temperatures.

Could be, if zero for Celsius didn't have that convenient (and very important) meaning that "the water is freezing".

The trouble is that that's laboratory water. Outdoors the water will probably not freeze because of sunlight and particles in the water.
And it can snow at temperatures well above freezing, but you can only enjoy it for more than 2 seconds if it's well below freezing. (We dutch have to deal with that nearly every year. :( )

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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby ucim » Fri Nov 20, 2015 6:02 pm UTC

rmsgrey wrote:Does anyone notice the difference between 82 and 83?
In air, no. In water, definitely.

Kit. wrote:And, of course, Fahrenheit is worse for practically everything else.
Agreed. Stuff like the height of a giraffe, the mass of a velociraptor, the electron flow through my house, and capacity of my hard drive are only very poorly approximated in degrees Fahrenheit.

Kit. wrote:Could be, if zero for Celsius didn't have that convenient (and very important) meaning that "the water is freezing".
Zero for Farenheit has the convenient (and very important, at least where I live) meaning that "salt won't make any difference".

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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby Kit. » Fri Nov 20, 2015 6:19 pm UTC

Flumble wrote:
Kit. wrote:
sotanaht wrote:Fahrenheit is perfectly viable for measuring ambient weather temperatures.

Could be, if zero for Celsius didn't have that convenient (and very important) meaning that "the water is freezing".

The trouble is that that's laboratory water.

Not only. Where I live, It also means "beware of black ice on rural roads and buy two extra gallons of windshield washer if you drive on federal roads".

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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby rmsgrey » Fri Nov 20, 2015 6:41 pm UTC

ucim wrote:
rmsgrey wrote:Does anyone notice the difference between 82 and 83?
In air, no. In water, definitely.

Kit. wrote:And, of course, Fahrenheit is worse for practically everything else.
Agreed. Stuff like the height of a giraffe, the mass of a velociraptor, the electron flow through my house, and capacity of my hard drive are only very poorly approximated in degrees Fahrenheit.

Kit. wrote:Could be, if zero for Celsius didn't have that convenient (and very important) meaning that "the water is freezing".
Zero for Farenheit has the convenient (and very important, at least where I live) meaning that "salt won't make any difference".

Jose


Except that 0F isn't actually the equilibrium point of saturated NaCl brine/ice

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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby Krealr » Fri Nov 20, 2015 6:43 pm UTC

pkcommando wrote:Is anyone else wondering if each day this comic will show a different 5-day forecast?

And, if it wasn't in your head before, enjoy the wait until tomorrow...


Personally I went and checked the 5 day forecast for my area to see if the comic pulled data based on location. Apparently it does not. :cry:

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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby San Fran Sam » Fri Nov 20, 2015 7:35 pm UTC

Marvin_old school.jpg


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Re: 1606: "Five-Day Forecast"

Postby Vehemence » Fri Nov 20, 2015 7:39 pm UTC

Once our solar system consumes itself, days and years will cease having any meaning. Crap, I made myself sad.


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