2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

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2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby jozwa » Mon Jun 04, 2018 7:20 am UTC

Image
Title text: "The 538TR attempts to capture a player's combined skill at basketball (either real-life or NBA 2K18) and election forecasting."

Locker room? Now I'm wondering how much of the data is just made up.

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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby rhomboidal » Mon Jun 04, 2018 7:46 am UTC

Making a shot from the locker room should be worth at LEAST a double-letter score in HORSE.

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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby orthogon » Mon Jun 04, 2018 8:35 am UTC

Ok, it's going to take me a while to work out what this is all about, but are people's social security numbers in the public domain?
xtifr wrote:... and orthogon merely sounds undecided.

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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby somitomi » Mon Jun 04, 2018 9:08 am UTC

orthogon wrote:Ok, it's going to take me a while to work out what this is all about, but are people's social security numbers in the public domain?

I don't think so, as far as I know (from one internet vdieo) it's supposed to be this secret number companies and government bureaus use to identify one particular Jen Erikson among the thousands of other Jen Eriksons. Same video tells me it's absolutely terrible as a secret number and it's very easy to "guess" based on birth place and date.
It still baffles me the US doesn't have an ID you can expect all people to have over a certain age, but I do live in a post-communist illiberal democracy, so what do I know about freedom?
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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby JPatten » Mon Jun 04, 2018 12:29 pm UTC

The reason there is no "National ID" as such is that the United States are, in fact, United States. As in 50 independent and Somewhat Sovereign states that are united for a common purpose of trade, currency, and defense. Thus, aside from the passport, which deals with the US interaction with other countries, one of the defined purposes of the Federal Government, an internal national ID is outside the scope of powers allocated to the Federal government. States themselves are responsible for Identifying their citizens.

In practice, of course, it is more complicated than that, and the Federal Government has been given or taken on to itself, more power than originally designed, but that is the basic reasoning.

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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby sonar1313 » Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:29 pm UTC

The "sandwiches eaten during play" graph is likely inaccurate. NBA players are crazy about PB&J's, and, of course, insanely finicky about what kind they have. Trainers have tried to take them away (too sugary) with mutinous results.

http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/ ... -addiction

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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby richP » Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:31 pm UTC

What? No Erdos numbers in the calculation?

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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby cryptoengineer » Mon Jun 04, 2018 2:04 pm UTC

I'm guessing that this panel is inspired by this /r/dataisbeautiful reddit post:

https://old.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautifu ... empted_oc/

There's a number of basketball related Big Data-ish images on that sub.

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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby ucim » Mon Jun 04, 2018 2:51 pm UTC

somitomi wrote:It still baffles me the US doesn't have an ID you can expect all people to have over a certain age, but I do live in a post-communist illiberal democracy, so what do I know about freedom?
We do. It's called a facebook id.

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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby somitomi » Mon Jun 04, 2018 3:41 pm UTC

JPatten wrote:The reason there is no "National ID" as such is that the United States are, in fact, United States. As in 50 independent and Somewhat Sovereign states that are united for a common purpose of trade, currency, and defense. Thus, aside from the passport, which deals with the US interaction with other countries, one of the defined purposes of the Federal Government, an internal national ID is outside the scope of powers allocated to the Federal government. States themselves are responsible for Identifying their citizens.

In practice, of course, it is more complicated than that, and the Federal Government has been given or taken on to itself, more power than originally designed, but that is the basic reasoning.

I'm confused a bit, because if IDs are not the job of federal government, but the states do issue IDs for citizens, then why aren't those IDs used as identification and why is social security dragged into this?
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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby DavidSh » Mon Jun 04, 2018 3:54 pm UTC

richP wrote:What? No Erdos numbers in the calculation?

I would be mildly surprised if any active NBA player has a finite Erdos number.

On the other hand, I would also be mildly surprised if no active NBA player has a finite Kevin Bacon number.

-- And, indeed, Blake Griffin (Detroit Pistons), has a Kevin Bacon number of 3

-- Furthermore, I should have checked first, LeBron James has a Kevin Bacon number of 2

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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby ucim » Mon Jun 04, 2018 4:15 pm UTC

somitomi wrote:I'm confused a bit, because if IDs are not the job of federal government, but the states do issue IDs for citizens, then why aren't those IDs used as identification and why is social security dragged into this?
They are. Typically driver licenses are used for ID - they have a unique number, a photo, and that plus the state code makes it perfect. But each state has their own system, so it's harder to integrate into a database. SSNs are all the same format, so they were first to be used for this purpose.

But the thing is, what would be the purpose of a mandatory "national ID card"? Without a compelling reason, don't bother to create one.

Jose
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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby cellocgw » Mon Jun 04, 2018 4:51 pm UTC

ucim wrote:
somitomi wrote:It still baffles me the US doesn't have an ID you can expect all people to have over a certain age, but I do live in a post-communist illiberal democracy, so what do I know about freedom?
We do. It's called a facebook id.

Jose


Dang, I thought it was our /. ID . sigh.
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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby JPatten » Mon Jun 04, 2018 4:57 pm UTC

SSN was created for Tax purposes, not "national Identification". It is a subtle difference but an important one. (I personally have issues with Income tax, but that is a totally different argument). SSN cards used to say, "not to be used for identification purposes" on them.

The fundamental reason for no national ID is that the government has no business "keeping tabs" on its citizens. We are to be secure in our persons and effects from Government interference. The US government is meant to be limited in its power and scope. The primary responsibility of the Federal government should be to ensure smooth functioning between the states and between the Union of states and other political entities. It should have little impact on the average citizen. Certainly far less than it currently has.
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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby Soupspoon » Mon Jun 04, 2018 5:01 pm UTC

Where on the graph might be 078-05-1120?

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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby ucim » Mon Jun 04, 2018 5:11 pm UTC

Soupspoon wrote:Where on the graph might be 078-05-1120?
It might be near the bottom, all the way to the right. Especially if that individual had one free-throw, and made it.

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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby cryptoengineer » Mon Jun 04, 2018 5:24 pm UTC

ucim wrote:
somitomi wrote:I'm confused a bit, because if IDs are not the job of federal government, but the states do issue IDs for citizens, then why aren't those IDs used as identification and why is social security dragged into this?
They are. Typically driver licenses are used for ID - they have a unique number, a photo, and that plus the state code makes it perfect. But each state has their own system, so it's harder to integrate into a database. SSNs are all the same format, so they were first to be used for this purpose.

But the thing is, what would be the purpose of a mandatory "national ID card"? Without a compelling reason, don't bother to create one.

Jose


When I got my first US drivers license (about 1980, NYC), it was a piece of cardboard with my photo glued on it.

Over the years, DLs have become more and more effectively national ID cards; In fact, with the RealID act, they are becoming that in all but name.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_ID_Act

Want to fly, or interact with the Federal Government? In a couple years you'd better have a RealID compliant DL or ID.

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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby -mr. bill » Mon Jun 04, 2018 5:37 pm UTC

The first three digits of the SSN were the "area code."

Prior to 2011, if you knew where someone was born you could guess a range of the area number. (And mostly you'd be right, though in more recent times it was zip code of mailing address of the SSN application.)

Since 2011, the SSN's are "randomized", but we can guess that few people who've received an SSN since 2011 have free throw percentages.

More disappointing is that there are many SSNs in the scatter plot that were not valid SSNs prior to 2011.
Nor are the free throw percentages plausible. (Of the NBA players who made a free throw attempt this year, only 10 were below .400.)

But Curry's free throw percentage *AND* area number are plausible.

(The locker room shot reminds me of the "Nothing but net" McDonald's ads.)

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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby sonar1313 » Mon Jun 04, 2018 6:42 pm UTC

DavidSh wrote:
richP wrote:What? No Erdos numbers in the calculation?

I would be mildly surprised if any active NBA player has a finite Erdos number.

On the other hand, I would also be mildly surprised if no active NBA player has a finite Kevin Bacon number.

-- And, indeed, Blake Griffin (Detroit Pistons), has a Kevin Bacon number of 3

-- Furthermore, I should have checked first, LeBron James has a Kevin Bacon number of 2


Jerry Maguire is good for a lot of Kevin Bacon numbers for athletes, on account of Cuba Gooding Jr. appearing briefly in A Few Good Men. Brent Barry - retired from the NBA in 2009 - was in it and therefore also has a Bacon number of 2. There's a big load of former NFLers with the same deal.

And let's not forget Space Jam, which one way or another gave most of its basketball stars a Bacon number of 2.

I would be very surprised if any active NBA players have an Erdos number; basketball is a sport that lends itself to a long earnings timeframe, even if you don't make the NBA, so almost nobody pursues an academic career as a fallback. But: Zach Zenner, who plays for the NFL's Lions, is a published medical researcher and might just have a finite (if large) Erdos number. Football players and their short careers - sooner or later, it's bound to happen, I think.

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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby Eebster the Great » Mon Jun 04, 2018 7:02 pm UTC

In the U.S., SSNs are primarily used for taxes and employment. People who do not participate in social security (mostly aliens required to pay federal taxes, but also Amish and Mennonites) have individual taxpayer ID numbers with the same function. Because these are unique to each person and never change, they are sometimes also used for identification, but they are not secure for that purpose. In almost all cases, you just need to know the number, and you don't need to have the physical card. Actual identification (for interactions with police, buying alcohol or tobacco, etc.) uses state-issued drivers licenses or ID cards, which have photos and some anti-counterfeiting measures and need to be updated regularly. Obviously there are other types of private ID cards too, such as school IDs, library cards, credit cards, and employee ID cards for some jobs, some types of which are sometimes accepted for certain official purposes.


This comic is funny (especially the Cavs' apgar scores), but I don't understand the part about magnetic north.

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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby Keyman » Mon Jun 04, 2018 7:07 pm UTC

If "When Net is Within 15° of Magnetic North" refers to 72.62° W, I'm struggling to figure out how that list could be right.

And I'm pretty sure this:
explain xkcd wrote:The note about the alignment with Magnetic North is possibly a reference to Foxes. Artic and Red Foxes both have a distinctive hunting method, called 'mousing', involving tracking prey that is hiding under the snow, then leaping into the air and diving into the snow head-first, to try to catch the prey. A study found that they are more likely (to a statistically significant degree) to catch their prey when mousing, when they start facing approximately 20 degrees east of Magnetic North.
can't be anywhere near an explanation.
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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby Keyman » Mon Jun 04, 2018 7:10 pm UTC

Eebster the Great wrote:This comic is funny (especially the Cavs' apgar scores), but I don't understand the part about magnetic north.
Whew!! At least I'm in good company.
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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby keithl » Mon Jun 04, 2018 8:01 pm UTC

There is clearly no comparison. Stephen Curry, professor of structural biology at Imperial College, has 11435 citations, according to Google Scholar. LeBron James has one, for a television appearance. James will never get tenure at this rate.

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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby rmsgrey » Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:38 pm UTC

sonar1313 wrote:I would be very surprised if any active NBA players have an Erdos number; basketball is a sport that lends itself to a long earnings timeframe, even if you don't make the NBA, so almost nobody pursues an academic career as a fallback. But: Zach Zenner, who plays for the NFL's Lions, is a published medical researcher and might just have a finite (if large) Erdos number. Football players and their short careers - sooner or later, it's bound to happen, I think.


Researching, according to Microsoft's academic database, Zach Zenner has only one published paper, with about a dozen co-authors, each of whom also has only one published paper. So far as I can tell based on a cursory Google, Zach Zenner's Erdos number is not finite.

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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby serutan » Tue Jun 05, 2018 6:30 am UTC

Keyman wrote:If "When Net is Within 15° of Magnetic North" refers to 72.62° W, I'm struggling to figure out how that list could be right.

And I'm pretty sure this:
explain xkcd wrote:The note about the alignment with Magnetic North is possibly a reference to Foxes. Artic and Red Foxes both have a distinctive hunting method, called 'mousing', involving tracking prey that is hiding under the snow, then leaping into the air and diving into the snow head-first, to try to catch the prey. A study found that they are more likely (to a statistically significant degree) to catch their prey when mousing, when they start facing approximately 20 degrees east of Magnetic North.
can't be anywhere near an explanation.


My guess is that it's the compass bearing of the net from the player when he shoots. Which would be (roughly) either a corner (E-W aligned arenas) or the alignment of the 3 second lane (N-S aligned arenas).
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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby somitomi » Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:21 am UTC

ucim wrote:
somitomi wrote:I'm confused a bit, because if IDs are not the job of federal government, but the states do issue IDs for citizens, then why aren't those IDs used as identification and why is social security dragged into this?
They are. Typically driver licenses are used for ID - they have a unique number, a photo, and that plus the state code makes it perfect. But each state has their own system, so it's harder to integrate into a database. SSNs are all the same format, so they were first to be used for this purpose.

But the thing is, what would be the purpose of a mandatory "national ID card"? Without a compelling reason, don't bother to create one.

Jose

Obviously it's whatever purpose the Social Security Number is fulfilling at the moment, apparently for want of a better identification. I don't quite understand why there isn't a standardised format for state issued IDs, so that they could actually work as IDs everywhere in the US. The EU has one for both ID cards and driver's licenses and the EU is a much looser association than the US is.
JPatten wrote:The fundamental reason for no national ID is that the government has no business "keeping tabs" on its citizens. We are to be secure in our persons and effects from Government interference. The US government is meant to be limited in its power and scope. The primary responsibility of the Federal government should be to ensure smooth functioning between the states and between the Union of states and other political entities. It should have little impact on the average citizen. Certainly far less than it currently has.

This is probably the difference in word view I was hinting at before. However, preventing the federal government from keeping records about citizens shouldn't pervent it from creating the abovementioned standard ID format, right?
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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby JPatten » Tue Jun 05, 2018 12:00 pm UTC

This is probably the difference in word view I was hinting at before. However, preventing the federal government from keeping records about citizens shouldn't pervent it from creating the abovementioned standard ID format, right?

In some ways, yes. But we now have the REalID act that says that state identification cards must meet certain standards to allow things like air travel and certain other interstate activities which the federal government can regulate. States are not bound to follow those protocols but if they do not the citizens of those states will face certain difficulties and may need to use a Federally issued ID like a military ID or passport for identification in those situations. The primary one being air travel. Thus the states have an incentive to follow the protocol but there are some that do not.

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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby ucim » Tue Jun 05, 2018 3:47 pm UTC

somitomi wrote:Obviously it's whatever purpose the Social Security Number is fulfilling at the moment, apparently for want of a better identification.
That purpose seems to be primarily to make it easy for commercial entities to link databases to profile its customers, so as to better influence our behavior. Secondarily, to assist in identity theft.

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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby gmalivuk » Tue Jun 05, 2018 4:59 pm UTC

Keyman wrote:If "When Net is Within 15° of Magnetic North" refers to 72.62° W, I'm struggling to figure out how that list could be right.

Why would it mean 72.62° W?

And the list is probably not right because it was probably invented out of whole cloth by Randall (which seems a lot more likely than actually measuring the angle of all of those shots).
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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby Keyman » Tue Jun 05, 2018 6:10 pm UTC

gmalivuk wrote:
Keyman wrote:If "When Net is Within 15° of Magnetic North" refers to 72.62° W, I'm struggling to figure out how that list could be right.

Why would it mean 72.62° W?

And the list is probably not right because it was probably invented out of whole cloth by Randall (which seems a lot more likely than actually measuring the angle of all of those shots).

Based on the WMM2015 coefficients for 2015.0 the geomagnetic north pole is at 72.62°W longitude and 80.31°N latitude. That was the only thing I could think of that came close to making some of the numbers work. Cleveland is 'within 15 degrees' of that...Golden State isn't. But then so is Toronto. By the I should have been starting work...and I couldn't get it out of my head. Hoped somebody would come up with better than suggesting he pulled it out of his ass because he didn't want to do the work. The actual points list is right.
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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby gmalivuk » Tue Jun 05, 2018 6:41 pm UTC

Magnetic north is a direction. 15 degrees is an angle from that direction.
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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby Mikeski » Tue Jun 05, 2018 7:36 pm UTC

gmalivuk wrote:Magnetic north is a direction. 15 degrees is an angle from that direction.

And if it was referring to the location of the magnetic north pole, I think you'd have to go 15 degrees in both latitude and longitude... and I don't think there are many basketball courts in that area.

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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby DavidSh » Tue Jun 05, 2018 9:20 pm UTC

If I recall correctly, 15 degrees of arc on the Earth's surface corresponds to 900 nautical miles.

Wikipedia currently says the Magnetic North Pole (location where the magnetic field is vertical) is at 86.5°N 172.6°W, and the Geomagnetic North Pole (north pole of best fit of a magnetic dipole to the Earth's field) was at 80.37°N 72.62°W.

The first of these is about 900 nautical miles from Thule, from parts of Spitzbergen, and a few peninsulas and islands off the coast of Siberia. Probably a few amateur basketball courts there.

The second of these is within 900 nautical miles of more of northern Canadian islands. Possibly a few more amateur basketball courts. If the Inuit play basketball.

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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby gmalivuk » Tue Jun 05, 2018 9:59 pm UTC

Magnetic north, additionally, is not the direction toward any specific point on Earth's surface. It would be if there literally was just a giant bar magnet inside the planet, but the very fact that magnetic north and geomagnetic north aren't in the same place shows that's not what the real magnetic field looks like.
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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby Eebster the Great » Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:52 am UTC

Yeah, magnetic north is just a local direction. He didn't say anything about the actual magnetic north pole on the Earth. I imagined it having something to do with a magnet hidden in the ball to make it shoot straighter or something.

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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby Soupspoon » Wed Jun 06, 2018 11:20 am UTC

DavidSh wrote:The second of these is within 900 nautical miles of more of northern Canadian islands. Possibly a few more amateur basketball courts. If the Inuit play basketball.
I believe they have 50 words for "moving violation".

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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby Mikeski » Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:12 pm UTC

Soupspoon wrote:
DavidSh wrote:The second of these is within 900 nautical miles of more of northern Canadian islands. Possibly a few more amateur basketball courts. If the Inuit play basketball.
I believe they have 50 words for "moving violation".

Well, you do need a few when you play basketball on ice skates.

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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby rmsgrey » Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:23 pm UTC

Mikeski wrote:
Soupspoon wrote:
DavidSh wrote:The second of these is within 900 nautical miles of more of northern Canadian islands. Possibly a few more amateur basketball courts. If the Inuit play basketball.
I believe they have 50 words for "moving violation".

Well, you do need a few when you play basketball on ice skates.

It gets even trickier when you play the extreme version on ice floes...

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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby sonar1313 » Fri Jun 08, 2018 5:01 pm UTC

Soupspoon wrote:
DavidSh wrote:The second of these is within 900 nautical miles of more of northern Canadian islands. Possibly a few more amateur basketball courts. If the Inuit play basketball.
I believe they have 50 words for "moving violation".

And the NBA still won't enforce any of them.

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Re: 2002: "LeBron James and Stephen Curry"

Postby Old Bruce » Fri Jun 08, 2018 11:44 pm UTC

I am currently standing on a basketball playing surface looking at the basket and I glance at the trusty compass which I always carry whilst playing basketball. The basket is in line with magnetic north, now I move to my right and the basket is no longer in line with magnetic north.
Oh crap someone just threw a big nubbly ball at me! I attack by running away thus confusing everyone who doesn't know me. [sportsball emoticon]


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