2014: "JWST Delays"

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Kludgy
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2014: "JWST Delays"

Postby Kludgy » Mon Jul 02, 2018 4:39 pm UTC

Image
Title text: Since delays should get less likely closer to the launch, most astronomers in 2018 believed the expansion of the schedule was slowing, but by early 2020 new measurements indicated that it was actually accelerating.

How much longer will this take?

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Re: 2014: "JWST Delays"

Postby Sableagle » Mon Jul 02, 2018 4:43 pm UTC

Late 2026? I'll be fifty ... or dead ... or both.
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cellocgw
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Re: 2014: "JWST Delays"

Postby cellocgw » Mon Jul 02, 2018 4:46 pm UTC

Wonder what a 3rd-order polynomial fit predicts.
And how much worse it gets if you apply a decaying weight series (older data gets less weight)
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mschmidt62
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Re: 2014: "JWST Delays"

Postby mschmidt62 » Mon Jul 02, 2018 4:53 pm UTC

Better late than irreperably messed up.

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Re: 2014: "JWST Delays"

Postby heuristically_alone » Mon Jul 02, 2018 4:55 pm UTC

Because if the slope was one it would mean no progress is being made haha. At least the slope isnt greater than one.
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Mjb
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Re: 2014: "JWST Delays"

Postby Mjb » Mon Jul 02, 2018 5:11 pm UTC

Does anyone have the source numbers compiled? A second-order regression might point closer, maybe late 2024. Either way, I hope we get as much extended life from it as from the Hubble.

petercooperjr
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Re: 2014: "JWST Delays"

Postby petercooperjr » Mon Jul 02, 2018 5:13 pm UTC

It reminds me of this graph, showing the predicted and actual release-to-manufacturing date of Windows 95 (23 years ago this month!):
https://blogs.msdn.microsoft.com/oldnew ... /?p=91751/

“Management fairly consistently underestimated the number of days until RTM by a factor of 2.3.”

Engineering of new things is hard.
Last edited by petercooperjr on Mon Jul 02, 2018 5:17 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.

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Sableagle
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Re: 2014: "JWST Delays"

Postby Sableagle » Mon Jul 02, 2018 5:16 pm UTC

"What determines the ship date is the team's commitment to a ship date. We must make our RTM date."


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Re: 2014: "JWST Delays"

Postby moody7277 » Mon Jul 02, 2018 5:18 pm UTC

heuristically_alone wrote:Because if the slope was one it would mean no progress is being made haha. At least the slope isnt greater than one.


I think the slope for implementing nuclear fusion power plants is greater than one.
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Carteeg_Struve
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Re: 2014: "JWST Delays"

Postby Carteeg_Struve » Mon Jul 02, 2018 5:28 pm UTC

I like how the estimated launch date trend line goes past the intersection; as if after the 2026 launch, in 2030 the launch will be estimated for 2028. :D

qvxb
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Re: 2014: "JWST Delays"

Postby qvxb » Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:23 pm UTC

It's tough when there are no WWII German rocket scientists left or when your scientists are busy reading Dilbert and xkcd.

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Re: 2014: "JWST Delays"

Postby rmsgrey » Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:29 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:
heuristically_alone wrote:Because if the slope was one it would mean no progress is being made haha. At least the slope isnt greater than one.


I think the slope for implementing nuclear fusion power plants is greater than one.


It was very close to 1 for quite a long time, but it seems to have been dropping recently.

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Re: 2014: "JWST Delays"

Postby Archgeek » Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:40 pm UTC

Carteeg_Struve wrote:I like how the estimated launch date trend line goes past the intersection; as if after the 2026 launch, in 2030 the launch will be estimated for 2028. :D

I think the implication is that it'll have such a history of delays that future recollections of when it did launch will wander forward by way of a particularly strange inertia -- with futurefolk getting confused, looking it up, and using said history to explain their error once confronted with the actual date.
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cellocgw
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Re: 2014: "JWST Delays"

Postby cellocgw » Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:53 pm UTC

petercooperjr wrote:It reminds me of this graph, showing the predicted and actual release-to-manufacturing date of Windows 95 (23 years ago this month!):
https://blogs.msdn.microsoft.com/oldnew ... /?p=91751/

“Management fairly consistently underestimated the number of days until RTM by a factor of 2.3.”

Engineering of new things is hard.


Ummm... no... Management always lies by a factor of at least 2 when reporting engineering estimates to customers.
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Re: 2014: "JWST Delays"

Postby keithl » Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:54 pm UTC

Sableagle wrote:Late 2026? I'll be fifty ... or dead ... or both.
I'm a generation older than you - and don't plan on being dead. Suspended animation, maybe. If the world survives that long ...

I hope a competent data jockey will get a copy of the existing raw data from the Wide Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) orbiting observatory, and look for anomalously bright and "cold" 50K sources by differencing the W3/W4 sensors. Then we look at them with Webb's 2550W MIRI instrument; long wave infrared, high resolution imager - and resolve 100au diameter, multipixel disks ... out to 400 parsecs. cold Kuiper-belt Stapledon-Dyson shells ... :D

See http://server-sky.com/JWST for more.

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Zamfir
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Re: 2014: "JWST Delays"

Postby Zamfir » Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:55 pm UTC

Carteeg_Struve wrote:I like how the estimated launch date trend line goes past the intersection; as if after the 2026 launch, in 2030 the launch will be estimated for 2028. :D

That happened to Hubble, right? They launched after plenty of delays, and then they had a second launch three years later to fix the problems of the first one.

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orion205
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Re: 2014: "JWST Delays"

Postby orion205 » Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:04 pm UTC

This was great to read right after looking at this blog post about the JWST delays:
http://nasawatch.com/archives/2018/06/two-ways-of-loo.html

It links to two twitter posts, the first of which might be the basis of this comic.
https://twitter.com/coreyspowell/status/978713273729277953
https://twitter.com/astrogrant/status/1011730596547252225

Success-oriented scheduling strikes again!

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Re: 2014: "JWST Delays"

Postby Mikeski » Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:31 am UTC

"The time from now until the completion of the project tends to become constant." --Douglas Hartree

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CatCube
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Re: 2014: "JWST Delays"

Postby CatCube » Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:39 am UTC

petercooperjr wrote:It reminds me of this graph, showing the predicted and actual release-to-manufacturing date of Windows 95 (23 years ago this month!):
https://blogs.msdn.microsoft.com/oldnew ... /?p=91751/

“Management fairly consistently underestimated the number of days until RTM by a factor of 2.3.”

Engineering of new things is hard.


I was coming here to post this if somebody already hadn't. Which is a good data point indicating that JWST will be up in 2026.

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keithl
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Re: 2014: "JWST Delays"

Postby keithl » Tue Jul 03, 2018 3:36 am UTC

I am more hopeful for the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, nearing completion on Cerro Pachón ridge in Chile.

LSST is a point and shoot: fast slewin and stabilizing, then collecting two images in ten seconds with an 8.4 meter primary mirror and a 3.2 gigapixel imager the size of an SUV. It will generate 20 petabytes of images per year. The air on the ridge is dry enough for near-IR imaging. We may expand the dwarf planet inventory 10 to 100 times; perhaps we will add a real planet or two to the list. Mostly, I hope we will image 100 times as many small, earth-approaching asteroids and comets.

JWST is designed to image much further into the infrared; when (if?) it launches, it will see new objects as well. I expect JWST will be the last of the large, unitary, "expensive to launch" telescopes. The next generation of space telescopes may be free-flying mirror swarms designed for hundreds of ultra-cheap launches.

Sandman81
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Re: 2014: "JWST Delays"

Postby Sandman81 » Fri Jul 20, 2018 3:51 pm UTC

Completion of George RR Martin's Winds of Winter would take a similar trajectory.

DanD
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Re: 2014: "JWST Delays"

Postby DanD » Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:35 pm UTC

Sandman81 wrote:Completion of George RR Martin's Winds of Winter would take a similar trajectory.


No, that's a step wise function. Every time a fan asks him when it's going to be out, he pushes it off a week. Expected release is in 2451 at present.


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