a1s wrote:but... 5 people explained it... in this topic... on this very page...
I am not 5 people! Argh! Basic math! J/K
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a1s wrote:but... 5 people explained it... in this topic... on this very page...
frog42 wrote:Agent Foxtrot wrote:1) We have LaTeX. You can show any mathematical formula you want on these forums. For example, [math]\Gamma\left(z\right)={1\over{z}}\prod_{n=1}^\infty\frac{\left(1+\frac{1}{n}\right)^z}{1+\frac{z}{n}}[/math]
2) You're assuming that he also randomly picks a different number each time. Sure, that further decreases his probability of success, but why wouldn't he just pick 43 every single time? Out of 100 girls, at least one of them is generally bound to pick 43 as well. Therefore, [imath]P=0.01[/imath].
Grr.... Despite your fancy math, you still FAIL. He can pick any random number he wants and the girl can pick any random number she wants. The probability will remain 1%!!!! EVERY TIME there are 100 numbers to choose from and ONE is right. Probability doesn't get much easier than this. 10,000 possible outcomes with 100 being positive. 100/10,000 = .01!!!!
frog42 wrote:Agent Foxtrot wrote:1) We have LaTeX. You can show any mathematical formula you want on these forums. For example, [math]\Gamma\left(z\right)={1\over{z}}\prod_{n=1}^\infty\frac{\left(1+\frac{1}{n}\right)^z}{1+\frac{z}{n}}[/math]
2) You're assuming that he also randomly picks a different number each time. Sure, that further decreases his probability of success, but why wouldn't he just pick 43 every single time? Out of 100 girls, at least one of them is generally bound to pick 43 as well. Therefore, [imath]P=0.01[/imath].
Grr.... Despite your fancy math, you still FAIL. He can pick any random number he wants and the girl can pick any random number she wants. The probability will remain 1%!!!! EVERY TIME there are 100 numbers to choose from and ONE is right. Probability doesn't get much easier than this. 10,000 possible outcomes with 100 being positive. 100/10,000 = .01!!!!
neoliminal wrote:1st.: Humans are incapable of creating random numbers. They are particularly bad at it, in fact. Ask people for random numbers and you'll find clustering base on culturally significant numbers.
2nd: Because BOTH parties in the comic are human, we can assume that there is a much higher than 1% chance of there being a match. There are a couple of assumptions in that, like that the first party didn't generate his answer through a truly (pseudo) random means.
So Randal fails.
HOWEVER: If two different entities create truly random integer in the range of 1 and 100 (inclusive), then the chance that the two numbers are the same is 1%.
fin.
neoliminal wrote:1st.: Humans are incapable of creating random numbers. They are particularly bad at it, in fact. Ask people for random numbers and you'll find clustering base on culturally significant numbers.
2nd: Because BOTH parties in the comic are human, we can assume that there is a much higher than 1% chance of there being a match. There are a couple of assumptions in that, like that the first party didn't generate his answer through a truly (pseudo) random means.
So Randal fails.
HOWEVER: If two different entities create truly random integer in the range of 1 and 100 (inclusive), then the chance that the two numbers are the same is 1%.
fin.
Agent Foxtrot wrote:Relax, chief. Easy on the coffee. Or anabolic steroids. Or whatever. You just said exactly what I did. 0.01 = 1%.
Agent Foxtrot wrote:I'm inclined to agree with you, but different numbers are significant for different people. The number 32 is particularly significant to me, but most others, not so much.
Unfortunately, a rigorous study would require an extremely large sample size, so we'll never know.
Agent Foxtrot wrote:1) We have LaTeX. You can show any mathematical formula you want on these forums. For example, [math]\Gamma\left(z\right)={1\over{z}}\prod_{n=1}^\infty\frac{\left(1+\frac{1}{n}\right)^z}{1+\frac{z}{n}}[/math]
2) You're assuming that he also randomly picks a different number each time. Sure, that further decreases his probability of success, but why wouldn't he just pick 43 every single time? Out of 100 girls, at least one of them is generally bound to pick 43 as well. Therefore, [imath]P=0.01[/imath].
mrbaggins wrote:Try this one (works about 40-50% of the time).
So you've got a number now? Two digits, both odd, both different?Spoiler:
Now, think, don't say, a tool in a workshop.
Now, think, don't say, a colour.
Now think, don't say, a vegetable.
Hrm....Spoiler:
If you get 2 or 3 out of 3, bet you can do it againSpoiler:
Works best on children under 13 or so
mrbaggins wrote:Another good one...
"I'm so impressively intelligent (and slightly psychic). Want me to prove it?"
"Sure"
"I want you to think of a number. Any number. Minus 6, a billion and twelve, 76.9, doesn't matter. Got one? Now, what is it?"
"Uh.... <some number>?"
"Wrong!"
Thanks, Hitchhikers Guide!
[/quote]hackthat wrote:Someone before mentioned 17, but that works better if you limit it between 1 and 20. 37 Works better for larger ranges. When you get beyond 100, you're probably getting to too many numbers for an average person to think about.
neoliminal wrote:1st.: Humans are incapable of creating random numbers. They are particularly bad at it, in fact. Ask people for random numbers and you'll find clustering base on culturally significant numbers.
2nd: Because BOTH parties in the comic are human, we can assume that there is a much higher than 1% chance of there being a match. There are a couple of assumptions in that, like that the first party didn't generate his answer through a truly (pseudo) random means.
Shadowman615 wrote:neoliminal wrote:1st.: Humans are incapable of creating random numbers. They are particularly bad at it, in fact. Ask people for random numbers and you'll find clustering base on culturally significant numbers.
2nd: Because BOTH parties in the comic are human, we can assume that there is a much higher than 1% chance of there being a match. There are a couple of assumptions in that, like that the first party didn't generate his answer through a truly (pseudo) random means.
I think that's how David Blaine does a similar trick where he asks someone to pick a number between 1 and 1000. (It's 333)
neoliminal wrote:Also, in Rock-Paper-Scissors, I always play Rock.
tulgeywood wrote:Ace of Spades is chosen freely about 34% of the time.
kafkadog wrote:neoliminal wrote:Also, in Rock-Paper-Scissors, I always play Rock.
Or are you just saying that so you can actually play scissors to my paper?!
BrianXVX wrote:Here is another good one that's worked for me both times I've tried it.
Pick a numbrer between 1-10
Multiply it by 9
Add the two digits together and subtract 5.
Think of a letter that corresponds to that number: 1=A, 2=B, 3=C, etc.
Think of the name of a country that starts with that letter.
Take the second letter in the name of that country and think of an animal that starts with that letter.
Now think of a color.Spoiler:
You can start out any other way so they pick the letter "D" (aka first letter of your middle name, etc) to make it more personalized for more effect.
Walter.Horvath wrote:Which isn't very fair, because:Spoiler:
VNVKingdom wrote:BrianXVX wrote:Here is another good one that's worked for me both times I've tried it.
Pick a numbrer between 1-10
Multiply it by 9
Add the two digits together and subtract 5.
Think of a letter that corresponds to that number: 1=A, 2=B, 3=C, etc.
Think of the name of a country that starts with that letter.
Take the second letter in the name of that country and think of an animal that starts with that letter.
Now think of a color.Spoiler:
You can start out any other way so they pick the letter "D" (aka first letter of your middle name, etc) to make it more personalized for more effect.
I ended up with blue eagles. The Denmark part was spot on though.
Stop being so predictable brain or I'll drown you in alcohol!
Elvish Pillager wrote:See? All the problems in our society are caused by violent video games, like FarmVille.
neoliminal wrote:1st.: Humans are incapable of creating random numbers. They are particularly bad at it, in fact. Ask people for random numbers and you'll find clustering base on culturally significant numbers.
neoliminal wrote:2nd: Because BOTH parties in the comic are human, we can assume that there is a much higher than 1% chance of there being a match.
neoliminal wrote:If two different entities create truly random integer in the range of 1 and 100 (inclusive), then the chance that the two numbers are the same is 1%.
hthall wrote:neoliminal wrote:1st.: Humans are incapable of creating random numbers. They are particularly bad at it, in fact. Ask people for random numbers and you'll find clustering base on culturally significant numbers.
True for most people. I remember an anecdote about a university class in which students tried to simulate a random series of coin flips, while a computer program used basic data compression techniques to try to predict their next keystroke. No matter what the students tried, or how much they practiced, in the long run the computer could always predict well over 50% of the "random" keystrokes of any student--with one exception. There was one student who appeared to be generating truly random data. How? He said he was just using his free will.
Pi is exactly three wrote:There's a variation which works 100% of the time but is easier for the mark to figure out how it's done. (And fails completely if they've seen the episode of Columbo which featured it...)
You: "Pick a number from 1 to 4."
Them: "1"
You: "Look under the phone."
They do, and there's a note with the message "I knew you were going to pick 1".
Of course, if they said 2 you would tell them to look under the lamp, if 3 then look under the blotter etc. By increasing the number of pre-prepared hiding places you could easily extend this to 10 choices, but it would get a bit unwieldy after that.
mrbaggins wrote:Try this one (works about 40-50% of the time). Say it out loud to friends. No idea if it will work in text form.
Think of a random two digit number... so, anything between 10 and 99.
Now, that's a lot of numbers, so let's narrow it down a little...
Make both digits odd. So like, 1, 3, 5 etc...
And because double digits are silly, make them both different.
So you've got a number now? Two digits, both odd, both different?
mrbaggins wrote:Or another one:
Ask someone these calcs (or similar) really quick. No time to think, just answer.
5+1?
half of 12?
3+3?
3x2?
9-3?
Now, think, don't say, a tool in a workshop.
Now, think, don't say, a colour.
Now think, don't say, a vegetable.
Hrm....
BrianXVX wrote:Here is another good one that's worked for me both times I've tried it.
Pick a numbrer between 1-10
Multiply it by 9
Add the two digits together and subtract 5.
Think of a letter that corresponds to that number: 1=A, 2=B, 3=C, etc.
Think of the name of a country that starts with that letter.
Take the second letter in the name of that country and think of an animal that starts with that letter.
Now think of a color.Spoiler:
You can start out any other way so they pick the letter "D" (aka first letter of your middle name, etc) to make it more personalized for more effect.
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