Nem wrote:Tyndmyr wrote:We would likely see a similar distribution of manufacturers with firearms. Simple zip guns could be made by anyone(some kids got busted making and selling zip guns recently, was a minor news article). Lowers and other fairly easy to make pieces for more professional firearms would be somewhat less common, but still really common. Ditto for AKs. High quality weapons would be less common, but highly distributed, via organized crime.
You don't need an AK to hold up grandma, or rob the 7/11. The distribution pattern at any given quality of firearm would be determined by supply and demand, profit and risk. If guns are weapons of opportunity, something for having, not so much for using, - which is not improbable - then where's the demand for guns that are better than zip guns going to come from?
I believe you are under the impression that an AK is difficult to make. This is not the case. Some guns require a certain degree of precision, have tons of pieces, and are generally made by technologically adept countries. The AK, on the other hand, sneers at the idea of tolerances, is made in basically every country in the world, including out of tents in places with so little civilization that food is a severe problem, and you can find guides online to making them out of objects as simple as a rusty old shovel.
So, the demand is going to come from the same place it does now. Single shot guns are dirt cheap compared to higher quality guns now, but people, criminal or not, obviously are willing to pay more for better guns.
Tyndmyr wrote:Making drugs is rather more work. Guns tend not to explode while being made, gunsmithing doesn't have much in the way of telltale smells or massive power consumption the way drugs often do. Today, ARs start at somewhere north of about a grand. I'm sure that if supply were greatly restricted, prices would rise.
Making drugs isn't hard, at least not on a per unit basis. You can make meth in a jug in the back of your car (granted it has a non-negligible chance of blowing up in your face if you're not careful about bleeding it off, but that apparently doesn't stop drug addicts) and the more industrialised methods turn out massive quantities for the amount of effort put in. MJ? It's actively hard to screw that one up - the reason most MJ users don't grow their own has more to do with really bad planning abilities than anything else. Opiates? Hard to get the poppies but it's easy enough to separate out over the counter medicine.
None of those things is hard. Most of it you don't even have to watch that closely.
Right. And making guns is easier. Firearm technology hasn't changed all that rapidly. It's old tech. The 1911, still one of the most popular guns around, is over a hundred years old. There's no electronics or anything funky. You mostly just need a barrel and some way to strike the primer. A very short shopping trip to lowes or home depot will get you everything you need. There's very few parts in even many commercial guns. Hell, if you ask, folks at the hardware store will generally cut things to length for you.
Making full auto guns isn't even that hard. Mostly, it means not including stuff that semi-autos have. If you aren't concerned about your gun having safety features, pleasing asthetics, and so on, it really isn't that big of a deal to make something with some firepower. You need a tube, something that goes bang, and something to get flung out the far end, really. Double barrel? two of those and duct tape. Auto? Well, spring, slide, mag. Meh.
Look, it crops up from time to time now. Sometimes children make zip guns because money means more to them. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&ved=0CDQQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nbcconnecticut.com%2Fnews%2Flocal%2FNew-Haven-Police-Arrest-Robbers-Uncover-Zipgun-Manufacturer-228979091.html&ei=-uJ7UtWuAtKs4AO9Dg&usg=AFQjCNFpiM8QCOn2HPfc2g9sSNeUC_5IQA&sig2=wFyM2Bi79PBZoZ3IAK4Ugg&bvm=bv.55980276,d.dmg
Tyndmyr wrote:The same will be true for guns at some degree of increased price/limited supply. Realistically, the higher the price, the more people will say "that's worth it", and give it a shot.
Sure, but who's going to say "Sell me a gun for a million dollars"? If the intersection is wrong then it just won't be worthwhile.
We can be reasonably sure that the intersection will be far less than a million dollars. If you look south, across the mexican border, it's fairly trivial to deduce that illegal firearm prices are pretty damned low, even without much in the way of legal supply for the country( a single gun shop in the capital). Now sure, we're richer than Mexico, so prices can be expected to rise somewhat in the US...but again, drugs are a great parallel here. If there's money to be made shipping us drugs, they'll ship us drugs. If guns, guns.
Sure, but who's going to say "Sell me a gun for a million dollars"? If the intersection is wrong then it just won't be worthwhile.[/quote]