xkcd

by **sardia** » Sat Jun 16, 2012 2:16 am UTC

Spoiler:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/16/world/middleeast/blow-to-transition-as-court-dissolves-egypts-parliament.html?ref=world
After a court, staffed by Mubarak supporters, declared the parliamentary elections invalid, the military has seized the right to legislate. At first, it was shocking, but they left open a fleeting hope of having new elections next year. Now even that illusion of democracy is shattered. All that is left is the presidential elections. I wonder what's going to happen now?
Excuse the bad copypasta, there was not a good print form for me to copy.

by **lutzj** » Sun Jun 24, 2012 3:33 pm UTC

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeas ... 90400.html

Muslim Brotherhood candidate Morsi takes the presidential runoff with just over 50% of the vote. 800,000 votes invalidated, which is almost as big as the gap between the two candidates, so there might be some controversy over the result.

by **Tirian** » Sun Jun 24, 2012 4:43 pm UTC

All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.

by **Diadem** » Sun Jun 24, 2012 5:17 pm UTC

lutzj wrote:http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/06/201262412445190400.html

Muslim Brotherhood candidate Morsi takes the presidential runoff with just over 50% of the vote. 800,000 votes invalidated, which is almost as big as the gap between the two candidates, so there might be some controversy over the result.

The good news is that it appears the military did not seize power.
The bad news is that it appears the military did not seize power.

I really do not know what to think of the whole situation.

by **sardia** » Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:33 pm UTC

Just because they don't share our undying loyalties to Israelis doesn't mean they are our nemesis of the Middle East. The Muslim Brotherhood isn't Iran, or even Hamas. Asking authoritative strongmen to take over because of some minor policy differences isn't something to be desired. Besides, the military has already seized power. The presidency is reduced in scope, the military has a say over legislative matters, they operate by a constitution that the military alone wrote, and they dissolved parliament under some suspicious legal reasoning.

If you're not sure what to think, consider the following. Egypt provides a couple things to the outside world: Access to the canal, not attacking Israel. Now what is at risk here? The not attacking Israel turns into, we'll loosen border restrictions to pressure Israel since that's fuels the Palestinians in Israel.
Now if Egypt goes military dictatorship, we maintain both of these options, and lose democratic values. If Egypt becomes an Islamic state through repeated Muslim brotherhood victories, then you could lose both the defense of Israel, and access to the canal. However, you gain democratic values. The former is the short term, the latter is a worst case scenario in the long term. If you think about what the US has done in the past, it has always chosen the authoritarian strongmen short term vision, over the democratic long term one. Has it worked out for us? I would say no, but we still do it. I'm not sure right now, but I think the US sided with the brotherhood on this, while hedging with the military. Who knows, but I hope it works better than how Bahrain is doing. Hint, they're blaming us for the oppression and killings now.

by **Steax** » Mon Jun 25, 2012 12:28 am UTC

Genuine question: Why is everyone convinced that a Muslim Brotherhood win will turn Egypt into an "Islamic State" and an enemy of all who trample upon their path? I've been reading up on it, and while they're conservative, they're not openly radical. There have been the usual "allegations" and various cases in the past, though I don't usually think this is enough to be suspicious of a multi-million people group.

And how does the leap from "Islamic State" to Israel issues and other forms of closure to the world work? There are a number of existing ones, and they're not all hostile. And then there are a slew of non-purist Islamic states, from Saudi Arabia to Malaysia, which seem to be doing just fine.

by **lutzj** » Mon Jun 25, 2012 12:42 am UTC

They've also, y'know, been democratically raised to the presidency in the first decently-fair election Egypt's had in a while. We (the US, and more broadly the rest of the world) don't have to keep giving Egypt billions of dollars in aid if their interests don't align so closely with ours anymore, but actively opposing a Brotherhood government is just all kinds of wrong.

by **sardia** » Mon Jun 25, 2012 1:30 am UTC

Steax wrote:Genuine question: Why is everyone convinced that a Muslim Brotherhood win will turn Egypt into an "Islamic State" and an enemy of all who trample upon their path? I've been reading up on it, and while they're conservative, they're not openly radical. There have been the usual "allegations" and various cases in the past, though I don't usually think this is enough to be suspicious of a multi-million people group.

And how does the leap from "Islamic State" to Israel issues and other forms of closure to the world work? There are a number of existing ones, and they're not all hostile. And then there are a slew of non-purist Islamic states, from Saudi Arabia to Malaysia, which seem to be doing just fine.

I hate to use this analogy, but it's similar to the fears republicans have of Obama secretly wanting to turn the country into a socialist europe. Except it has some basis behind it. Libya and Tunisa both have Salafi conservative muslims who are pressing hard for conservative changes to society and government which borders on oppressing nonmuslims and females. There were cases of in Africa of muslim opposition parties winning office, and then promptly converting over into a taliban style state. Considering the large majorities the muslim brotherhood has, it could easily pass something along the lines of "women can't vote/go to school/one must dress and behave as a conservative muslim. That's just how people who live there feel. As for the West, we only give a shit about conservative muslims is if it affects how they deal with Israel or oil. Egypt is a major transit point, and has a long border protecting Israel. (We clearly don't care about radical conservative muslims because Saudi Arabia is the most radical of the bunch, yet we support them clearly)

lutzj wrote:They've also, y'know, been democratically raised to the presidency in the first decently-fair election Egypt's had in a while. We (the US, and more broadly the rest of the world) don't have to keep giving Egypt billions of dollars in aid if their interests don't align so closely with ours anymore, but actively opposing a Brotherhood government is just all kinds of wrong.

I doubt the US would just give up on its contacts in the military just to save a 1-2 billion dollars a year, aka pennies to the US. I'm not sure what you are saying, the Obama administration has sided with democratic groups and the brotherhood in this case.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/25/world ... &ref=world
It's using the billion dollars in aid as pressure on Egypt to maintain a stable and democratic transition of power.

by **lutzj** » Mon Jun 25, 2012 1:33 am UTC

sardia wrote:
lutzj wrote:They've also, y'know, been democratically raised to the presidency in the first decently-fair election Egypt's had in a while. We (the US, and more broadly the rest of the world) don't have to keep giving Egypt billions of dollars in aid if their interests don't align so closely with ours anymore, but actively opposing a Brotherhood government is just all kinds of wrong.

I doubt the US would just give up on its contacts in the military just to save a 1-2 billion dollars a year, aka pennies to the US. I'm not sure what you are saying, the Obama administration has sided with democratic groups and the brotherhood in this case.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/25/world ... &ref=world
It's using the billion dollars in aid as pressure on Egypt to maintain a stable and democratic transition of power.

Yeah, maintaining the aid is probably a good move. Using it, or other leverage, to subvert the democratic process would be a bad one.

by **Lucrece** » Mon Jun 25, 2012 4:14 am UTC

sardia wrote:
Steax wrote:Genuine question: Why is everyone convinced that a Muslim Brotherhood win will turn Egypt into an "Islamic State" and an enemy of all who trample upon their path? I've been reading up on it, and while they're conservative, they're not openly radical. There have been the usual "allegations" and various cases in the past, though I don't usually think this is enough to be suspicious of a multi-million people group.

And how does the leap from "Islamic State" to Israel issues and other forms of closure to the world work? There are a number of existing ones, and they're not all hostile. And then there are a slew of non-purist Islamic states, from Saudi Arabia to Malaysia, which seem to be doing just fine.

I hate to use this analogy, but it's similar to the fears republicans have of Obama secretly wanting to turn the country into a socialist europe. Except it has some basis behind it. Libya and Tunisa both have Salafi conservative muslims who are pressing hard for conservative changes to society and government which borders on oppressing nonmuslims and females. There were cases of in Africa of muslim opposition parties winning office, and then promptly converting over into a taliban style state. Considering the large majorities the muslim brotherhood has, it could easily pass something along the lines of "women can't vote/go to school/one must dress and behave as a conservative muslim. That's just how people who live there feel. As for the West, we only give a shit about conservative muslims is if it affects how they deal with Israel or oil. Egypt is a major transit point, and has a long border protecting Israel. (We clearly don't care about radical conservative muslims because Saudi Arabia is the most radical of the bunch, yet we support them clearly)

And lashings/life/death sentences for gay people, assuming they don't get lynched by the populace. National Geographic had a program covering a UK nurse who traveled to Saudi Arabia, was identified as a homosexual, and went through all the circles of Hell and was only saved for being a foreigner.

Conservative Islam is a tad worse than conservative Christianity, but the problem is that conservative Islam can actually achieve vast amount of political power whereas conservative Christianity in most countries can at best hold a split. Admittedly Africa is one of the exceptions where their Christians are just as bad socially as the Muslims. Eastern Europe is a bit less bad, but still pretty evil in addition to serious race problems and neonazi movements.

by **iamspen** » Mon Jun 25, 2012 11:19 am UTC

It's worth noting that the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has taken a huge leap leftward, at least in rhetoric (its actual practices remain to be seen), since the protests against Mubarak began. It has promised, for whatever that's worth, not to curtail rights for Christians or women, and, IMO, that's a significant paradigm shift for a conservative Muslim party such as the Brotherhood.

by **webzter_again** » Mon Jun 25, 2012 1:48 pm UTC

Two things worth throwing in here. First, Morsy is at least talking a great game right now. Tempered speech is, I think, a great sign. This does contrast very much with his message, at times, during his campaign, but it's not like we're not used to that from our presidential candidates in the US.

http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/mo ... -egyptians

In his first televised speech on state TV, Morsy declared he would be a leader "of all Egyptians — Muslims, Christians, the elderly, children, women, men, farmers, teachers, workers, those who work in the private and public sectors, and merchants."

Second, Morsy is no longer a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. Obviously, his membership ending doesn't mean much. He likely still shares common ideals with the organization. Still, even if it's a political move and nothing else, it's a smart political move that might help speed the reconciliation of the country.

http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/br ... up-and-fjp

“We have terminated Morsy’s membership in fulfillment of our promise when he becomes president of all Egyptians,” said Mahmoud Hussein, the group's secretary general.

by **CorruptUser** » Mon Jun 25, 2012 3:35 pm UTC

iamspen wrote:It's worth noting that the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has taken a huge leap leftward, at least in rhetoric (its actual practices remain to be seen), since the protests against Mubarak began. It has promised, for whatever that's worth, not to curtail rights for Christians or women, and, IMO, that's a significant paradigm shift for a conservative Muslim party such as the Brotherhood.

Would just like to point out that according to my Iranian refugee friends, when the Ayatollah took over, he enforced religious worship for Jews/Christians as well as Muslims. Conservative Islam doesn't ban the 'Dhimmi' religions/people, just subjugates them.

Saudi Arabia is something else, being a bit more fascist than even Iran, what with the "no churches" rules. I could sort of understand Mecca and Medina, but the rest of Saudi Arabia isn't 'holy'.

by **iamspen** » Mon Jun 25, 2012 4:48 pm UTC

The biggest difference between Iran and Egypt, of course, is that Iran is an Islamic republic whose democratic system is made of paper and is, in fact, an oppressive dictatorship (which, in one of history's most ironic twists, is actually quite accepting of people of other faiths in relation to its neighbors, even allocating Parliamentary seats to religious minorities) while Egypt is evidently and hopefully headed in the direction of actual representative democracy. In Egypt's case, the current dictatorial power is the secular military, and the incoming President has promised de facto secularism. Though I'm skeptical of his ability to meet that promise, and I'm skeptical of the Brotherhood's apparent newfound progressiv(ish)ism, I'll wait until they actually make a grab for oppressive Islamism before comparing them to their Iranian counterparts.

by **CorruptUser** » Mon Jun 25, 2012 5:22 pm UTC

...my point being that conservative Islam doesn't always ban all other religions, so that MB's promise to not curtail minority rights isn't proof in either direction that the MB is going "left".

by **iamspen** » Mon Jun 25, 2012 5:42 pm UTC

I know what your point was, but my point is that and their promises to follow the legal rulings that are handed down from the secular courts, and the Brotherhood distancing itself from the executive office so as not the deligitimize itself in the eyes of minority religious/political groups (they initially didn't even know if they wanted to posit a candidate for fear of alienating the fledgeling revolution, remember), and its vows to protect and uphold the rights of religious minorities and keep in place certain secularist principles all point to a leftward movement.

And my other point was that, so far, all of that has been rhetorical, and I'm skeptical of their intentions because, yes, this is still a far-right traditionally Islamist political party, so their actions in the immediate future may be entirely contrary to their stated positions.

I guess I'm not really in a position to argue with you, because I really don't want to defend the Brotherhood any more than is absolutely necessary, but from a layman's point of view, they've added a tinge of progressivism in their platform that is slightly encouraging, especially since the knee-jerk reaction pretty much globally was, "Fuck, we're going to have another radical Islamist regime hell-bent on destroying the West."

by **yedidyak** » Mon Jun 25, 2012 7:06 pm UTC

Only time will tell what Morsi will do as President. In the short term I doubt he will make massive changes, especially as the army is still in de-facto control. Its also important to note that despite the huge crowds in Tahrir he only scraped a win with 51%. And that was against a Mubarak PM, he has serious opposition from the secular public.

On the other hand, hes working with a massively Islamist Parliament. (Assuming the parliament is reinstated). The MB led Democratic Alliance for Egypt has 235 out of 508, but another 123 seats are held by the Salafis. Together they can pass any Islamic law they want, and with the Salafis holding the balance between a minority and massive majority, they will almost certainly be a large part of Morsi's government.

Anyway, its too soon to see how much if any power Morsi will end up with. But, living in a country that had 150 rockets fired at us this week by the MB's sister party, it's worrying.

by **webzter_again** » Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:09 pm UTC

yedidyak wrote:Anyway, its too soon to see how much if any power Morsi will end up with. But, living in a country that had 150 rockets fired at us this week by the MB's sister party, it's worrying.

So what's the general mood in Israel over the elections? His current stance certainly feels softer than his campaign rhetoric. Or, does the parliament make-up sort of make the presidential election a moot point?

by **yedidyak** » Mon Jun 25, 2012 10:40 pm UTC

webzter_again wrote:
yedidyak wrote:Anyway, its too soon to see how much if any power Morsi will end up with. But, living in a country that had 150 rockets fired at us this week by the MB's sister party, it's worrying.

So what's the general mood in Israel over the elections? His current stance certainly feels softer than his campaign rhetoric. Or, does the parliament make-up sort of make the presidential election a moot point?

People are waiting to see what happens. No one expects things to get better, the question is how bad will things get. Although, many people think that the army is still in real control and so nothing will change.

by **sardia** » Mon Jun 25, 2012 11:59 pm UTC

As for Israel, look for news on gas pipelines into Israel, Smuggling/trade with the Palestinians, and a renegotiation of the peace treaty. Egypt has leverage over Israel on these issues due to the border, but Israel has the US leaning on Egypt's military to play nice. It'll be delicate to say the least when Egypt looks outward again.
I've heard reports that there was a disruption to the supply of natural gas from Egypt to Israel, did anything come of it? Or did they fix it?

by **Lucrece** » Tue Jun 26, 2012 8:08 am UTC

Finally, concerning the highly controversial notion of sexual orientation, we can only reiterate that it is not part of the universally recognized human rights. We call on Mr. Kiai not to undermine the credibility and legitimacy of his important work in the eyes of real people who actually need it, especially in regions where such concepts are rejected by both its Christian and Muslim inhabitants like the Middle East."

Read more: http://www.towleroad.com/#ixzz1ysuJhcOL

http://elderofziyon.blogspot.com/2012/0 ... -real.html

"Real people". What a long road still left to tread.

by **jules.LT** » Tue Jun 26, 2012 8:45 am UTC

Not that his actual stance isn't problematic, but that was just bad English. He obviously meant "people who really need assistance", not "real people who need assistance".

Also, the thread title should be changed to "Muslim Brotherhood candidate elected president of Egypt", or something like that.

by **yedidyak** » Tue Jun 26, 2012 9:33 am UTC

sardia wrote:As for Israel, look for news on gas pipelines into Israel, Smuggling/trade with the Palestinians, and a renegotiation of the peace treaty. Egypt has leverage over Israel on these issues due to the border, but Israel has the US leaning on Egypt's military to play nice. It'll be delicate to say the least when Egypt looks outward again.
I've heard reports that there was a disruption to the supply of natural gas from Egypt to Israel, did anything come of it? Or did they fix it?

The pipeline has been blown up I think 14 times, maybe more since the revolution. Sometimes by Islamists, sometimes by local Bedouin tribes angry at government neglect. Sometimes those overlap. In many ways Egypt has lost control of the Sinai to Bedouin groups, just last week an Al-Qaeda linked group infiltrated Israel from there. Other groups have fired rockets from the Sinai multiple times. Egypt has moved a few infantry battalions to try and retake control, a move that Israel allowed despite it being against the peace treaty.

by **Djehutynakht** » Wed Jun 27, 2012 1:13 am UTC

Steax wrote:And how does the leap from "Islamic State" to Israel issues and other forms of closure to the world work? There are a number of existing ones, and they're not all hostile. And then there are a slew of non-purist Islamic states, from Saudi Arabia to Malaysia, which seem to be doing just fine.

Saudi Arabia bans Archaeology and beheads people for being witches. I don't quite call that doing "just fine". I mean, the king is considerably open to reform, and the new man to be named crown prince is much more reformist than the conservative crown prince who just died, but they still have a long way to go.

by **Qaanol** » Wed Jun 27, 2012 6:55 am UTC

Well, I don’t know how much this is important versus purely symbolic, but apparently President Morsi is going to appoint, among his Vice Presidents, a woman as one and a Christian as another.

by **sardia** » Mon Jul 09, 2012 4:09 pm UTC

Egypt's military is still fighting to keep control of the state. I wonder if they'll win or not. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/10/world ... ?ref=world

by **BlackSails** » Tue Jul 10, 2012 12:02 pm UTC

Is it just me, or do other people think of magneto whenever they hear someone mention the "Muslim Brotherhood"?

by **Yakk** » Tue Jul 10, 2012 9:52 pm UTC

Does anyone have a good source for more information on this:

Then on Thursday, the nation’s highest court issued an order dissolving Parliament, on the grounds that political parties had wrongly been allowed to compete for the one-third of seats designated for individual candidates.

I see lots of realpolitik style discussion, but little on the actual issue that (nominally) caused Parliament to dissolve.

by **yedidyak** » Wed Jul 11, 2012 8:10 am UTC

Two links from AJ, from before and after the ruling.

It seems there were two issues. First that 1/3 of the seats were meant to be allocated to independents, and 2/3 to party lists. The SC ruled that that was unfair to independents, and so annulled the entire election, and next time it must be half and half. Apparently the SC made two similar rulings in the Mubarak era. The second issue is that even in the independent's 1/3, parties campaigned and won seats. So MB members running for the MB ran for and won independent seats, which the SC said was unconstitutional.

by **iamspen** » Wed Jul 11, 2012 2:08 pm UTC

I had heard on NPR that inconsistent election rules between voting districts (eg, this district employs first past the post, this district uses a runoff system, that district uses a ranked voting system) also played a part in the SC's ruling, though I have not seen anything since to further corroborate this.

by **yedidyak** » Sun Aug 12, 2012 9:17 pm UTC

So, President Morsi has now fired and replaced nearly all the Army leadership, including Field Marshal Tantawi. He has also rolled back all of the constitutional changes the Army instituted to limit the power of the President, and taken back all legislative powers the Army had confiscated. Does this mean that the revolution is over and that Egypt is a real democracy?

by **Tirian** » Mon Aug 13, 2012 12:23 am UTC

Wow. If the military submits to that order (and Bloomberg thinks that maybe they have), that seems very significant.

by **Sizik** » Mon Aug 13, 2012 12:51 am UTC

yedidyak wrote:Does this mean that the revolution is over and that Egypt is a real democracy?

I'd hold off on that until the next president gets elected.

by **sardia** » Thu Nov 22, 2012 9:08 pm UTC

Sizik wrote:
yedidyak wrote:Does this mean that the revolution is over and that Egypt is a real democracy?

I'd hold off on that until the next president gets elected.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2012/11 ... ?ref=world
Nope.
The king is dead. Love live the king.

In all seriousness, this declaration is pretty dangerous, especially if the judiciary isn't trusted by the people. If the president starts decreeing shit, and also decrees that his decrees aren't bounded by judicial review by the authority of his own decrees...
It might actually work in his favor if the Judiciary appears in the eyes of the people to be Mubarak supporters. If the judges don't have the public's backing, Morsi just seized power from the judiciary (right after the Judiciary transferred power from the legislative to the executive by dissolving parliament's election results.) Right now, Morsi has the powers to make laws, decree shit, and is immune to judicial review. He'll definitely abuse it, I'm just wondering if the backlash will come now, later or Egypt will just have to live with a Chavez-style presidency with a rubberstamp checks and balances. This is bad even if Morsi has the best of intentions since it sets the precedent that the president has all the powers.

by **sardia** » Fri Dec 07, 2012 6:20 pm UTC

http://rendezvous.blogs.nytimes.com/201 ... ?ref=world
A pattern emerges when a long smothered opposition party finally gains power. Examples are South Africa, Bolivia, and Egypt. The opposition, which is now in charge, is fearful and paranoid. As a result, they refuse to share power. Because there's no other game in town, everyone joins the main party(the old opposition) and smaller parties shrivel. And now the old opposition becomes what they hated, the man holding back the little guy.

by **Qaanol** » Sun Dec 23, 2012 9:00 pm UTC

Early reports indicate the constitution was approved by the people, although the opposition alleges fraud.

I started reading the English translation of the proposed constitution. It starts out pretty heavy-hitting with Islam being built into the government and only Islam, Judaism, and Christianity recognized, but later it covers things like equality and non-discrimination and human rights. I did not finish reading the whole thing yet.

by **sardia** » Mon Dec 24, 2012 10:29 pm UTC

I expect something similar to the US constitution early days, but w/o the bill of rights. It'll be interpreted however they wish by the various factions, and whoever has the majority(islamists) will get what they want. So if the Islamists see a conservative society, they'll push for that, and find plenty of citations to back them up. Same for the "liberal" opposition, albeit with less backing since rights aren't as thoroughly protected or outright stated. Don't expect too much from the Obama administration, since it has to keep Israel safe in addition to the human rights in Egypt. So don't expect it to burn bridges or apply too much pressure on Morsi and the brotherhood. It'll try to keep a balance for now, unless the situation spirals out of control. TLDR: Wait and see mode until something big goes wrong.

xkcd

Egypt's Military Changes Mind, Seizes Power Again

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