Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby bigglesworth » Mon Apr 07, 2014 5:09 pm UTC

PolakoVoador wrote:I'm really not sure anymore if a unified Ukraine is possible or even a good idea.
I'm not sure if it's possible, but it's definitely a good idea.
Last edited by bigglesworth on Mon Apr 07, 2014 8:14 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby CorruptUser » Mon Apr 07, 2014 8:00 pm UTC

Possible for what is a good idea? Russia gobbling up Ukraine?

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby bigglesworth » Mon Apr 07, 2014 8:15 pm UTC

The rare ninja'd pagetopper.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby addams » Mon Apr 07, 2014 10:50 pm UTC

PolakoVoador wrote:Protesters declare Donetsk 'republic'

Spoiler:
BBC wrote:Pro-Russian protesters who seized the regional government building in the Ukrainian city of Donetsk are reported to have declared a "people's republic".

The rebels have called for a referendum on secession from Ukraine by 11 May.

Ukrainian security officials are being sent to the eastern cities of Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv after pro-Russia groups occupied government buildings.

Interim President Oleksandr Turchynov called the unrest an attempt by Russia to "dismember" Ukraine.

In an address on national TV, he said it was "the second wave" of a Russian operation to destabilise Ukraine, overthrow the government and disrupt planned elections.
Russia recently annexed Ukraine's Crimean peninsula after a referendum there which Ukraine did not see as valid.

As tensions mounted on Monday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Deshchytsya told Russia's Ekho Moskvy news agency that Kiev would go to war with Russia if it sent troops into eastern Ukraine.

Moscow has thousands of troops massed along its border with Ukraine. It says it has no intention of invading but reserves the right to protect the rights of ethnic Russians.

BBC Moscow correspondent Daniel Sandford says Donetsk - an industrial city with a population of about one million - differs from Crimea in that it has many Ukrainian speakers as well as a Russian-speaking majority.

Opinion polls there have shown considerable support for a united Ukraine, he adds.

Footage posted online showed a Russian speaker telling the Donetsk assembly: "I proclaim the creation of the sovereign state of the People's Republic of Donetsk."

Earlier on Monday, protesters seized state security buildings in Donetsk and Luhansk.

Protesters broke into Donetsk's regional government building and another in Kharkiv - Ukraine's second largest city - on Sunday. Ukrainian authorities say protesters have now left the building in Kharkiv.

Ukrainian news agency Unian says gunmen also tried to storm a Donetsk TV building on Monday but were deterred by police.

At an emergency cabinet meeting, interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk blamed Russia for the seizures.

"The plan is to destabilise the situation, the plan is for foreign troops to cross the border and seize the country's territory, which we will not allow,'' he said, adding that people engaged in the unrest have distinct Russian accents.

He said Russian troops remain within 30km (19 miles) of the frontier. The city of Luhansk is just 25km from the Russian border.


So, this crisis is far from over. Now separatist movements are sprouting all over the place. I'm really not sure anymore if a unified Ukraine is possible or even a good idea.

Jeeze.
ok. I'm sorry I was cracking jokes.
Did you see the Photos?

Those people in the Buildings are attempting to use Civilized Mechanisms to do an Administrative Task.
Do The People with their Hands Raised want War?

They want Peace.
My guess is they want Peace, Prosperity, Stability, Functioning Institutions that they can Trust and Respect for being so Civil.
Where are they going to get that?

I can pitch in with the Respect for Being Civil part.
(they were being Civil. right?)
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby bigglesworth » Mon Apr 07, 2014 11:07 pm UTC

I hope that Russia is only destabilising Eastern Ukraine in order to draw attention away from finishing the integration of Crimea with the Federation.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby addams » Mon Apr 07, 2014 11:28 pm UTC

bigglesworth wrote:I hope that Russia is only destabilising Eastern Ukraine in order to draw attention away from finishing the integration of Crimea with the Federation.

ech.
It may be very different than what most Americans can understand.
I am sure I do not understand what those people are thinking.

It seem they Are thinking and they get Extra Credit for that.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Vahir » Tue Apr 08, 2014 12:18 am UTC

Remember, Putin has given himself the right to intervene anywhere in the Ukraine. Now it looks like he might follow up on that.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Diadem » Tue Apr 08, 2014 7:25 am UTC

PolakoVoador wrote:So, this crisis is far from over. Now separatist movements are sprouting all over the place. I'm really not sure anymore if a unified Ukraine is possible or even a good idea.

Are they sprouting spontaneously, or were their seeds sown by Moscow?

As far as I know there is wide popular support for a unified Ukraine even in eastern Ukraine. Heck even in Crimea (at least until Russia started a massive propaganda bombardment), though that ship seems to have sailed.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Djehutynakht » Tue Apr 08, 2014 7:46 am UTC

Russia warns Ukraine of "civil war" if force used in Eastern Revolts

Translation:

Either you're going to let these revolts happen and effectively give us Eastern Ukraine or we're going to intervene to "protect" the rebels and effectively take Eastern Ukraine.


Well, hm... yeah, I really don't see much happening besides Russia effectively gaining control of Eastern Ukraine and keeping Crimea. The very worst, obviously, would be just completely taking the Ukraine. But that's an extreme extreme.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby addams » Tue Apr 08, 2014 11:59 am UTC

Is there any way for Americans to understand?

Is this like counties in Texas giving the US the finger and becoming part of Mexico, again?
Would you rather kill them than let them be Mexican?
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby CorruptUser » Tue Apr 08, 2014 12:11 pm UTC

If Mexico decided to place several million people in Texas in order to vote it back to Mexico, it would in effect be a post-modern invasion. We'd have every right to fight back, but in a post modern way; no citizenship for illegal immigrants.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby addams » Thu Apr 10, 2014 7:23 am UTC

CorruptUser wrote:If Mexico decided to place several million people in Texas in order to vote it back to Mexico, it would in effect be a post-modern invasion. We'd have every right to fight back, but in a post modern way; no citizenship for illegal immigrants.

eeewww.
How horrible.
We?

Do you think Mr. Putin shipped people by the millions to the Ukraine?
Gee. He is quite the guy. Good enough for that?

Nah. Silly. It was a plan that was hatched before he was born.
The Russians smuggled themselves in there by being born in Russia before the Border Shift.

I suppose Mexicans did that in Texas, too.
No one in the Ukraine is keeping the people in a constant state of non-personhood for political reasons.

They have their sides. None of their sides are as Wrong as our Right.
They don't seem to have 'AssHole' as a Public Policy as much as we do.

As far as I can tell, there is not one American in a moral or academic position to criticize Europeans, east or west.
We could start a list of Human Rights Violations the US is involved in; Both here and abroad. We could submit it to the UN.

We have every right to feel shame.
If we are too .....to feel shame;
We should be ashamed of that, too.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Vahir » Thu Apr 10, 2014 10:22 pm UTC

Something not directly related to Ukraine, but still interesting: A group of russian MPs have requested that Gorbachev be investigated for allowing the soviet union to break up.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26975865

"We asked to prosecute him and those who helped him destroy the Soviet Union for betrayal of national interests," Ivan Nikitchuk, a Communist Party lawmaker, told AFP news agency.

He is quoted as saying that the destruction led to conflicts in the former Soviet countries, including Ukraine.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby addams » Thu Apr 10, 2014 11:31 pm UTC

Vahir wrote:Something not directly related to Ukraine, but still interesting: A group of russian MPs have requested that Gorbachev be investigated for allowing the soviet union to break up.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26975865

"We asked to prosecute him and those who helped him destroy the Soviet Union for betrayal of national interests," Ivan Nikitchuk, a Communist Party lawmaker, told AFP news agency.

He is quoted as saying that the destruction led to conflicts in the former Soviet countries, including Ukraine.

Poor Leaders EveryWhere.
Damned if ya' do; Damned if ya' don't.

What was that?
What Gorbachev was a part of?

There was Loads of Talk about Freedom to self determine.
There was also Loads of Talk about how states like Georgia and Crimea could fair best.

There were economic pains.
I am not an economist.

I do remember some of the conversations.
What will be best for The People?

If a satellite state wanted to go, from what I remember there was little fuss.
No one liked it. They were still Revolting on some levels. I guess.

If Russia's states want to return to her, Bless Them.
I can, sort of, see it like a family that was in distress.

In 2013 Russia was doing quite well in some important ways.
If she can administer to her people and improve their lives and promote Peace and Good Will, Bless Her.

Sanctions will not help Russia meet her responsibilities.
Economic Sanctions Suck.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_sanctions

BBC article:
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26612848

Another BBC article:
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26680182

Sanctions hurt the common people.
McCain will not miss a meal.

I think it is Wrong to Sanction Russia.
If there were any kind of even handed Justice....

Well... I am still Pissed Off about Gitmo.
The state of the US economy may very well be the effects of Sanctions and The People don't know it.

If The People were told by FOX that the entire world is disgusted with us and our Leaders; How would we respond?
If it came to light that the US is on the receiving end of Sanctions; What then?

Would the Leaders of the US get onto FOX news as quick as possible?
What would they say?

We torture and brag.
It's our Right!

We kill and destroy.
It's our Right!

We imprison our own in conditions that are illegal in 50 other nations.
It's our Right!

Do US Leaders still stand up and threaten other nations with economic destruction?
Does that seem silly to you?

Who threatened to destroy the US's economy?
Who did destroy the US's economy?

If I disagree with prosecuting Gorbachev for what he did as an Agent of his Nation.
Then I can not suggest that Cheney be prosecuted for what he did as an Agent of his Nation.

I can suggest that before he held a US government position he behaved in ways that were Traitorous.
He used that Power to get into a Protected Position as an Agent of his Nation. He irritates me.

The world will be a better place when there are fewer Human Rights Violations.
I would like to see the US clean up her shit.

Let those with clean homes help those that need help.
I think the US needs help.

Russia may need help, too.
I think she is behaving in as dignified a manner as she can.

Personally, I respect that.
As a Nation she seems calm and resigned.

I have watched individual Russians do that.
It was so touching. In the face of (Fuck there are no English words for that)

I saw it, more than once.
They get dressed up.

I swear.
I have seen it.

The sky was falling and we might die.
The chances of death were too high for comfort.

What did the Russians I knew do?
They got dressed. So pretty.

It made sense.
It IS the correct thing to do.

It is a damn good thing the Americans don't want my respect.
They would have to get dressed and behave themselves with dignity.

The FOX people get dressed. They are the extraordinary ones.
They might brake out in quiet dignity. One never knows.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Djehutynakht » Thu Apr 10, 2014 11:52 pm UTC

Vahir wrote:Something not directly related to Ukraine, but still interesting: A group of russian MPs have requested that Gorbachev be investigated for allowing the soviet union to break up.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26975865

"We asked to prosecute him and those who helped him destroy the Soviet Union for betrayal of national interests," Ivan Nikitchuk, a Communist Party lawmaker, told AFP news agency.

He is quoted as saying that the destruction led to conflicts in the former Soviet countries, including Ukraine.



...if I recall the history I was told yesterday correctly, didn't the Russian President (Yeltsin, along with one or two other Republic presidents) declare the Soviet Union void before Gorbachev consented to it?

So if we're charging Gorbachev for allowing the USSR to break up, shouldn't we arrest everyone in the Duma, as well as Putin, for treason to the USSR?

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Vahir » Thu Apr 10, 2014 11:57 pm UTC

addams wrote:
Vahir wrote:Something not directly related to Ukraine, but still interesting: A group of russian MPs have requested that Gorbachev be investigated for allowing the soviet union to break up.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26975865

"We asked to prosecute him and those who helped him destroy the Soviet Union for betrayal of national interests," Ivan Nikitchuk, a Communist Party lawmaker, told AFP news agency.


Sanctions hurt the common people.
McCain will not miss a meal.

I think it is Wrong to Sanction Russia.
If there were any kind of even handed Justice....


Yes, economic sanctions hurt large amounts of Russians who are personally innocent of any wrongdoing, but at a certain point you need to break some eggs to make an omelet. The world is pretty much in consensus that Russia violated Ukraines territorial sovereignty, and the nations of the world have a duty to protect the weaker links from this kind of landgrabbing. And when it comes to punishing a nation in a way that will really hurt, the only real options are economic sanctions or war, and I think it's clear which of those two would hurt russians more.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Carlington » Fri Apr 11, 2014 3:01 am UTC

Putin: "Ukraine gas debt could hurt Europe"

This seems like a rather clever move from Putin - he's revoked the discount on Russian gas previously offered to Ukraine, and decided that now is a good time to call in the debts. Of course, since Ukraine's a little bit pressed at the moment, they'll need some help coming up with the cash. Ukraine's EU buddies won't mind fronting the dough, will they? Especially not when you consider that if Russia turns off Ukraine's gas, that knocks on to anyone else in Europe that relies on Russian gas through Ukrainian pipelines.

It's kinda saddening to see the EU, starting to make a comeback from the effects of the GFC (which wasn't their fault), now being squeezed from both sides by Russia and the US over an issue in Ukraine, a country which was never their concern in the first place.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby CorruptUser » Fri Apr 11, 2014 3:06 am UTC

Depends which part of Europe. France just laughs since their power comes from Nuclear anyway. Germany is increasingly turning to coal (stupid anti-nukes). Britain isn't dependent on Russian gas anyway. Italy is, but their winters tend to be mild enough that they can survive without the gas, just not comfortably.

It's not like this is the first time Russia played games with the gas lines. You'd think by now Europe would start importing American bitumous coal. Not to burn, but to process for the precious radioactive particles in the coal. No, seriously, there is more energy to be found in the radioactive particles in the coal than in burning the coal itself.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby sardia » Fri Apr 11, 2014 4:44 am UTC

CorruptUser wrote:Depends which part of Europe. France just laughs since their power comes from Nuclear anyway. Germany is increasingly turning to coal (stupid anti-nukes). Britain isn't dependent on Russian gas anyway. Italy is, but their winters tend to be mild enough that they can survive without the gas, just not comfortably.

It's not like this is the first time Russia played games with the gas lines. You'd think by now Europe would start importing American bitumous coal. Not to burn, but to process for the precious radioactive particles in the coal. No, seriously, there is more energy to be found in the radioactive particles in the coal than in burning the coal itself.

Europe won't be threatened by Russian gas shortages in the longterm, say 20-30 years, maybe 10 if they push investments. For the short term, say 1-2 years, Western Europe relies on storage tanks, they have like a 13 month supply or something sitting in reserve. There's consequences to becoming less dependent on Russia or in general. You lose out of advantages of specialization + trade. In Europe's case, they'll have to increase use of coal, nukes, and fracking. All these things aren't popular in Europe, but they'll do it if Russia keeps pushing them. Option 2 is to improve relations with Russia, and undermine the regime somehow, like with cultural dominance. Option 3: wait for North America to become a energy powerhouse and ship all the energy you want.

Option 2 and 1 are the most unpalatable, but are the easiest to achieve. Option 3 sounds crazy, but might happen in a few decades as US production rises, and the infrastructure to transport energy to Europe is built. This won't be cheap, fast or easy.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby addams » Fri Apr 11, 2014 5:46 am UTC

CorruptUser wrote:Depends which part of Europe. France just laughs since their power comes from Nuclear anyway. Germany is increasingly turning to coal (stupid anti-nukes). Britain isn't dependent on Russian gas anyway. Italy is, but their winters tend to be mild enough that they can survive without the gas, just not comfortably.

It's not like this is the first time Russia played games with the gas lines. You'd think by now Europe would start importing American bitumous coal. Not to burn, but to process for the precious radioactive particles in the coal. No, seriously, there is more energy to be found in the radioactive particles in the coal than in burning the coal itself.

darn it.
You bring up an interesting point.
How radioactive coal is.

It's not going to burn your face off.
Still; It is one hell of a pollutant.

I was Googling around and found recent Coal Sluge Spills in the US.
I did some reading. That stuff is bad and it is not getting cleaned up.

It is Off Topic,
Yet it may be related.

Europe is between the US and Russia?
Like a child with arguing parents?
Or; Like a child on School Grounds with a The Big Boyz fighting?

Europe must make a decision?
What kind of a choice is it for Europe?

A long standing friendship?
Those are important if you can get one and should be protected whenever possible.

What else?
What are the highest European Values?

They must choose between the US and Russia?
Who better reflects those core European Values?

What do we think about the way each of the competing nations treat their own people?
Do they have Medical Care? It is available to one class and not to the other classes?

I think the US fails.
Not in her capacity and ability to deliver medical care.
The US fails, in her practical implementation of care.

What are other measures Europe can use to make this decision?
Environmentally responsible? Toxic Sludge! Some of the old laws are still working.
Not well and not supported by The People inside or outside the Government.

How about institutions like prisons? (prisons are my latest, Thing.)

I don't know what the Russian prisons are like.
Not one clue. I know what they were like in 1948 and 1955 and 1960.

By 1960's things were normalizing and Russian prisons were not any worse and no better than the US's.
Does Russia have starving, poor, weak, sick, homeless, frightened, abandoned people as a common feature?
The US does.

Does Russia hold citizens of other nations in prisons?
Where? Who are they holding? Will they give us a list?

Who do you want to be friends with?
Europe will not abandon the US because of Money, will they?

The US economy may be limping a little.
4 trillion dollars in debt??
That does not show good stewardship.

Are the Europeans seeing a different News than the one I am seeing?

No one is a Saint.
Russia has gone to war a time or two.
The US is in three wars and wants another one in Eastern Europe.

That is not the kind of friend I would want, if I had a choice.
You?

Violent, Controlling, has dabbled in both Torture and Murder and bragged about it.
Is financially irresponsible and yet is pathologically selfish.
Spoiler:
E-Cupid profile.
Look out. She is someone's dream woman.

What are the Europeans thinking?
Russia is right there in their back yard.
Russia is rich in minerals and she is still investing in her people, a little.
Russia might make a darned good neighbor.

Politics is like Jr. High School.
Why would Europe give preference to the US?

She is a mean bitch. If you don't let her place missiles she will be difficult.
She will destroy the Peace their people have worked for, for so long? (That's bad.)
She has good PR? Everyone Loves her. Even though she is a mean Bitch? Why?

I don't understand how those people see my nation.
Do they look at TV programs and think, The American Life (sigh)?

To make war and unease where it does not need to be is Wrong.
It does not need to be in Eastern Europe.






.
Life is, just, an exchange of electrons; It is up to us to give it meaning.

We are all in The Gutter.
Some of us see The Gutter.
Some of us see The Stars.
by mr. Oscar Wilde.

Those that want to Know; Know.
Those that do not Know; Don't tell them.
They do terrible things to people that Tell Them.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Diadem » Fri Apr 11, 2014 8:47 am UTC

Unlike America, Europe had an extremely soft winter. Record soft, in fact. Consequently, gas reserves in Europe are filled to the brim. So in that respect the timing of this conflict couldn't have been better.

Europe's dependence on Russia's gas shouldn't be overstated either. It's not like the lights will go out, or people will end up freezing to death, without it. But we would take an economic hit. Russia would take an economic hit at least as big though, so you'd think Russia would be at least as worried as Europe, but I guess they have other priorities. At least their leaders have. Or they hide their fears better.


What I don't quite understand is why Ukraine doesn't just tell Russia to suck it. Russia steals part of their county, and then demands money? It's absurd. Crimea has 2 million inhabitants, out of 46 million in Ukraine. Ukraine national debt is about 73 billion. So at the very least Russia should be taking over 3 billion of Ukraine's national debt. But Crimea is probably worth a lot more than that.

I suppose Ukraine's government isn't in a position where they could tell Russia to suck it. But it seems to me that it would be entirely in their rights to do so. And the international community certainly should hit Russia with new sanctions if they insist in this madness of blackmailing an already broken country when you were the one that broke it.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby leady » Fri Apr 11, 2014 9:15 am UTC

Its Russia cleverly twisting the arm of the EU to ultimately get a slapped wrist for its annexations rather than a spanked bottom.

I wish this would stop now - its impinging on my holiday plans (oh and its probably a nuisance for the locals too)

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby eSOANEM » Fri Apr 11, 2014 10:32 am UTC

I don't really want to call it a bluff, because I suspect Putin would follow through with his threat in order to make himself seem more powerful in Russia (even though it would damage their economy) but it very much seems like he's relying on the EU not letting it get to a stage where that's necessary.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby bigglesworth » Fri Apr 11, 2014 12:47 pm UTC

Carlington wrote:It's kinda saddening to see the EU, starting to make a comeback from the effects of the GFC (which wasn't their fault), now being squeezed from both sides by Russia and the US over an issue in Ukraine, a country which was never their concern in the first place.
Ukraine is arguably not a natural concern of the EU, but it was definitely part of the concerns of the EU. The EU-friendly side of the Ukrainian revolutions didn't happen in a vacuum.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Tyndmyr » Fri Apr 11, 2014 3:18 pm UTC

Djehutynakht wrote:
Vahir wrote:Something not directly related to Ukraine, but still interesting: A group of russian MPs have requested that Gorbachev be investigated for allowing the soviet union to break up.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26975865

"We asked to prosecute him and those who helped him destroy the Soviet Union for betrayal of national interests," Ivan Nikitchuk, a Communist Party lawmaker, told AFP news agency.

He is quoted as saying that the destruction led to conflicts in the former Soviet countries, including Ukraine.



...if I recall the history I was told yesterday correctly, didn't the Russian President (Yeltsin, along with one or two other Republic presidents) declare the Soviet Union void before Gorbachev consented to it?

So if we're charging Gorbachev for allowing the USSR to break up, shouldn't we arrest everyone in the Duma, as well as Putin, for treason to the USSR?


Politics need not be consistent. This is just part of the whole trumpeting the USSR as good times and advocating a return to russian imperialism. Obviously, such a view has difficulty accepting the breakup of the USSR as a good or natural thing, so someone needs to be blamed. Gorbachev might not actually be charged or anything, but at least having somewhere to point a finger is advantageous for those advancing pro-USSR views.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby sardia » Tue Apr 15, 2014 3:44 am UTC

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/15/world ... ?ref=world
Russian soldiers infiltrate East Ukrainian protestors/militants.

The evidence here is less clear compared to Crimea. The soldiers here are older, less well equipped, less overt. That said, they're still in Eastern Ukraine. I wonder what Kiev is going to do about it.
Honestly, I wouldn't have predicted such obvious Russian involvement in Eastern Ukraine. I was expecting more funding and propaganda, not paratroopers.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Tyndmyr » Tue Apr 15, 2014 11:30 am UTC

Gov vows to not let Crimean situation recur. Launches anti-terror operations.

Of course, deadline after deadline has passed without the rebels standing down or Ukraine pulling the trigger. So, essentially, the standoff continues.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby addams » Tue Apr 15, 2014 2:22 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:Gov vows to not let Crimean situation recur. Launches anti-terror operations.

Of course, deadline after deadline has passed without the rebels standing down or Ukraine pulling the trigger. So, essentially, the standoff continues.

Holy Fuck!
Where did that man learn to talk like that?
"full-scale anti-terrorist operation"

(fuck)
Do those words come straight from Washington?

Who the heck mobilized the little old ladies?
Pro-Russian agitators? Those agitators!

Do they have Tea and Cookies for after the Protest?
Or; Will they fall back on Vodka in the kitchen?

Probably both.
It's tradition.

We can only watch.
Those people are experts at Revolution.

Leave them alone and let them have Tea.
Or; Coffee and Vodka.

It might be fun to join the little old ladies for Tea.
I joined a woman's coffee group, one time.

I did not understand a word those women said.
They made some of the finest coffee I have ever seen.

Looking at that coffee is like looking at Vodka.
Looking won't hurt you. Drinking it might.
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Some of us see The Gutter.
Some of us see The Stars.
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Those that want to Know; Know.
Those that do not Know; Don't tell them.
They do terrible things to people that Tell Them.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby sardia » Tue Apr 15, 2014 3:34 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:Gov vows to not let Crimean situation recur. Launches anti-terror operations.

Of course, deadline after deadline has passed without the rebels standing down or Ukraine pulling the trigger. So, essentially, the standoff continues.

That doesn't make the situation static. Isn't the number of buildings being seized growing? The Ukrainian forces are unable to take back the lost buildings. That's a really bad sign, since it means the guys from Kiev aren't in a strong position, and Russia will start any negotiations with cities already under his side/control.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Tyndmyr » Tue Apr 15, 2014 4:30 pm UTC

Right. The standoff continuing is a sign of Ukrainian vulnerability.

Apparently one of our(US) missile destroyers got buzzed a few times over there too(Source: WashPo). Obviously, message sent.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Zamfir » Wed Apr 16, 2014 6:38 am UTC


What I don't quite understand is why Ukraine doesn't just tell Russia to suck it. Russia steals part of their county, and then demands money? It's absurd. Crimea has 2 million inhabitants, out of 46 million in Ukraine. Ukraine national debt is about 73 billion. So at the very least Russia should be taking over 3 billion of Ukraine's national debt. But Crimea is probably worth a lot more than that.


At a guess, the Ukrainian government is not a stable institution at the moment. If they want to stand tough against Russia, they need the support of most Ukrainians, including a large share of the Janukovitch supporters. Such support against invasion might be taken for granted in normal times, but they were (literally) fighting amongst each other just a while ago. And Janukovitch's party has fallen to pieces, it can't currently act its role as a democratic representation of a share of the population.

It would hard enough to deal with Russia in normal times, or to deal with the aftermath of Maidan without Russian soliiersd and militant separatists. Both combined might just be too much to deal with in a coordinated fashion.

From the outside, we can at least offer Ukraine a credit line, to buy them some time and some manoeuvre space. Not sure if there is more direct support we can give. It's not as if NATO troops would ease the situation in the east of Ukraine...

According to the NRC yesterday, the EC has its proposals for heavier sanctions on Russia finished. There is going to be a conference with Russia and the US tomorrow which will likely fail, and then the EU ministers will determine the sanctions to be implemented. It'll be interesting to see what comes out.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby bigglesworth » Wed Apr 16, 2014 8:18 am UTC

Heh, can you imagine UN troops patrolling eastern Ukraine. Chinese and/or Indian UN troops.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Zamfir » Wed Apr 16, 2014 9:04 am UTC

Well, depends on whether the Russians would veto. Could go both ways, right?

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby bigglesworth » Wed Apr 16, 2014 9:11 am UTC

It could? Hmm, maybe. I guess that having the UN have to look after Ukraine might weaken their position, make them more likely to enter negotiations to lose more territory. I didn't think of that.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Diadem » Wed Apr 16, 2014 9:51 am UTC

Zamfir wrote:

What I don't quite understand is why Ukraine doesn't just tell Russia to suck it. Russia steals part of their county, and then demands money? It's absurd. Crimea has 2 million inhabitants, out of 46 million in Ukraine. Ukraine national debt is about 73 billion. So at the very least Russia should be taking over 3 billion of Ukraine's national debt. But Crimea is probably worth a lot more than that.

At a guess, the Ukrainian government is not a stable institution at the moment.

Well yes, that was the next sentence after the bit you quoted ;)

Zamfir wrote:From the outside, we can at least offer Ukraine a credit line, to buy them some time and some manoeuvre space.

Thing is, as a Western-European tax-payer I can support a bail-out of Ukraine. But if that money is just going to flow straight into the Kremlin's coffers, I'm suddenly a whole less keen on the prospect.

Zamfir wrote:Not sure if there is more direct support we can give. It's not as if NATO troops would ease the situation in the east of Ukraine...

One idea that is being talked about is to send NATO troops to Western Ukraine. This would be a form of indirect military aid, since it would free up Ukrainian police and military units to be moved to the east. It would strengthen Ukraine's position without risking a NATO-Russia shooting incident.
It's one of those irregular verbs, isn't it? I have an independent mind, you are an eccentric, he is round the twist
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby bigglesworth » Wed Apr 16, 2014 10:10 am UTC

Wouldn't that mean picking sides on the Ukrainian political unrest in the capital though?
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Zamfir » Wed Apr 16, 2014 10:26 am UTC

It could?

I wasn't serious, sorry

@Diadem that wasn't meant as a disagreement, more a different formulation of a similar point.

Note to self: Improve Communication

On the money flowing to the Kremlin: yeah, that wouldn't feel right, though it might be acceptable in the very short run, just to give the Ukrainian government time to formulate a stance. The credit line is really more to allow Ukraine to buy gas (and other stuff) from the west, if the Russians cut the supply.

Then again, the gas line situation has not yet changed too much. Yet. Russia wants to ship gas west, the Ukraine taps gas from that line without paying, the Russians send bills, the Ukraine doesn't pay, Russia accepts this as de facto transit charges on westbound gas. That's how it has been for the last 20 years, the difference is that Ukraine now is not paying 30 cents per cubic meter, while in the past they didn't pay 10 cents per cubic meter. But it was largely a fictional price anyway.

On troops to the west of the Ukraine: still tricky. A large part of the Ukrainians used to like the Russians just as much or more as the west. For now, that might have shifted. But if the choice is between Russian troops in the east and NATO troops in the west, what happens?

I mean, we would claim that it was no invasion, because the Ukrainian government invited us. But that's what ever invader claims. It only works if people fully accept the legitimacy of the current government in Kiev. And the people who are skeptical about us, are the same people who are skeptical about the Maidan-installed government.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby sardia » Wed Apr 16, 2014 4:57 pm UTC

Zamfir wrote:
It could?

I wasn't serious, sorry

@Diadem that wasn't meant as a disagreement, more a different formulation of a similar point.

Note to self: Improve Communication

On the money flowing to the Kremlin: yeah, that wouldn't feel right, though it might be acceptable in the very short run, just to give the Ukrainian government time to formulate a stance. The credit line is really more to allow Ukraine to buy gas (and other stuff) from the west, if the Russians cut the supply.

Then again, the gas line situation has not yet changed too much. Yet. Russia wants to ship gas west, the Ukraine taps gas from that line without paying, the Russians send bills, the Ukraine doesn't pay, Russia accepts this as de facto transit charges on westbound gas. That's how it has been for the last 20 years, the difference is that Ukraine now is not paying 30 cents per cubic meter, while in the past they didn't pay 10 cents per cubic meter. But it was largely a fictional price anyway.

On troops to the west of the Ukraine: still tricky. A large part of the Ukrainians used to like the Russians just as much or more as the west. For now, that might have shifted. But if the choice is between Russian troops in the east and NATO troops in the west, what happens?

I mean, we would claim that it was no invasion, because the Ukrainian government invited us. But that's what ever invader claims. It only works if people fully accept the legitimacy of the current government in Kiev. And the people who are skeptical about us, are the same people who are skeptical about the Maidan-installed government.

The lack of unity in Ukraine, which is directly related to the weakness of government is a major complication. When you send troops over, only to have them defect is a pretty bad sign. There's definitly widespread sympathy for Russia in the Eastern Ukraine. In addition to the aid to Ukraine, the West can pressure Russia much much harder so Ukraine has more breathing room. If they are willing to absorb the economic pain, that is.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Killerofsheep » Wed Apr 16, 2014 5:04 pm UTC

No UN troops would make it anywhere near Ukraine. Russia has veto power in the UN, meaning any plan to send troops would be outright rejected, wouldn't it?

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby bigglesworth » Wed Apr 16, 2014 5:16 pm UTC

Definitely. I was just entertaining a hypothetical where Putin used the UN to get his way, but it's pretty unlikely.
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