Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

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sardia
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby sardia » Sun Apr 20, 2014 5:33 am UTC

In a more substantiated case,
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/20/world ... ml?hp&_r=0
Pro Russian forces bring a taste of Russian style political pressure into Ukraine. For example, a mayor in Eastern Ukraine who strayed from the message disappeared, with the militias stating “It’s just that yesterday she had a small crisis. She is recovering from an operation. She doesn’t feel well. She signed a letter of resignation.” Newspapers that were going to print articles critical of the militias and calling it an occupation were shut down. Internet connections have gone dead, and Ukrainian television channels replaced with Russian ones.

I know some of us here agree with the slow methodical diplomatic pressure route, but I think Europe's reluctance to bring about large sanctions is hurting the political pressure. Back in March, we got stuff like:
Spoiler:
Zamfir wrote:
I do think the EU should do more than it is doing. Certainly the current sanctions (postponing talks on trade agreements and visum requirements) are so laughable it would probably have been better to not do anything at all. But charging the EU with abandoning one of its own is not justified.

I' d say that Europe is acting fairly well, in this case. Very careful, but that's not a bad thing. I wouldn't equate 'more spine' with ' quick sanctions'. I'd call it buckling to US demands, not particularly spine-ful. For all the talk of a unified approach, we don't quite share the US interests in this case. Washington doesn't a mind some escalating Euro-Russian tensions once in while. Great for the Atlanticist relations, and nearly costless to them. I'd say the best outcome, for Europe, is a face-saving way for the Russians to retreat. Guarantees about rights for ethnic Russians in Ukraine, a different status for the Crimea, something to show at home. The Russian leadership has to fear the consequences of escalating sanctions, but they can't be seen to act on them. They have to be able to say, we got what we wanted, that's why we went home. Once you start with serious sanctions, you close that option. But it takes time to discover if the Russians are willing to make a deal.
Has the 'slow considered moves' group been happy with Russia's reaction to the limited sanctions that Europe reluctantly enacted? Is Europe still trying to find a face saving way for Russia to exit? Because it looks to me that Europeans are the ones who are looking for a face saving way out. I do believe that diplomacy can be an effective way to resolve disputes, but the way Europe is reacting to this Ukrainian crisis is far too timid.

I find that a questionable theory... I can see how a divided Ukraine is better for Russia than a united Ukraine constantly looking west. Perhaps that's what the Kremlin was expecting, but ironically that would have put them amongst the confident believers in the Maidan government.

After all, Janukovich did actual win a somewhat fair election, just a few years ago. The new government does not have overwhelming support, and the EU and NATO were not jumping for closer ties. A few years of inevitable in-fighting and perhaps some corruption scandals to weaken the new government, and there could easily be another Janukovich-like leader in Kiev.
If Russia was expecting the maidan government to fall, then why did they panic buy Crimea? Why are they continuing to push into Eastern Ukraine? It seems inefficient to spend all this time and effort on something that will swing your way in a couple years anyway.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby engr » Sun Apr 20, 2014 10:21 pm UTC

CorruptUser wrote:The pro-Russian rallies were left in peace while the anti-Russian ones were dispersed. There are troops everywhere in Crimea, and the non-Russians for the most part are staying home in part as a protest. Looks like enough evidence to say that voter intimidation is going on.


I kept patiently waiting for all liberals on here who supported the coup in Kiev to condemn the Kiev government as it was sending military (not even riot police, like Yakunovich did) to Eastern Ukraine to use lethal force against pro-Russian protesters. I wasn't holding my breath for it. After all, these protesters, are, like, completely different! Those violent pro-Putin protesters demanding a referendum in the East are completely not the same as these freedom-loving pro-Western protesters in the West who were just peacefully shooting and burning policemen to death.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. Gilbert K. Chesterton

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby EMTP » Sun Apr 20, 2014 10:26 pm UTC

engr wrote:I kept patiently waiting for all liberals on here who supported the coup in Kiev to condemn the Kiev government as it was sending military (not even riot police, like Yakunovich did) to Eastern Ukraine to use lethal force against pro-Russian protesters. I wasn't holding my breath for it. After all, these protesters, are, like, completely different! Those violent pro-Putin protesters demanding a referendum in the East are completely not the same as these freedom-loving pro-Western protesters in the West who were just peacefully shooting and burning policemen to death.


They are different in that one of them is being run by the Russian special forces, and the other is not.

I think the Ukrainian authorities have been more than patient with the infiltrators and the traitors. It's time they got serious, and we should support them in that.
"Reasonable – that is, human – men will always be capable of compromise, but men who have dehumanized themselves by becoming the blind worshipers of an idea or an ideal are fanatics whose devotion to abstractions makes them the enemies of life."
-- Alan Watts, "The Way of Zen"

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby engr » Sun Apr 20, 2014 10:50 pm UTC

Khelevaster wrote:
engr wrote:I see extreme right-wing nationalist militias who are openly threatening ethnic Russians with violence...

Where? Where do you see them? This is exactly the thing Russian news channels want you to believe.
There's a joke going around here that these extreme right-wing nationalists are like chupacabra: everyone's afraid of them but nobody has ever seen them.

Also your claim about open harrassment... Really?


Yeah, these guys are just my hallucinations. So are these. Or these kids. Or it was all staged by Russian media, no doubt. (For non-Ukrainian and non-Russian speakers on the boards: these nice guys are chanting "hang the Russian" and "cut Russians".)
Also, putting up hanging trees in the city centers (in the same places where Nazis used to hang Jews and Communists during WW2, by a strange coincidence) is totally not intimidation. Or when a politician on a PR trip comes into a kindergarten and tells a young girl "You are Olenka (Ukrainian name), not Alyona (Russian name), the moment you become Alyona you need to pack up your belongings and move to Moscow", this is totally not ethnic harassment. And this is just the stuff that they aren't ashamed to do in front of cameras.

Khelevaster wrote:
engr wrote:As of the fact that Ukrainian nationalists (as well as previous Yuschenko's gov't) glorify Nazis, well...

Bandera's story might be questionable, but nazi he is not.


Yeah. If it walks like a Nazi...

Wikipedia wrote:On June 30, 1941, with the arrival of Nazi troops in Ukraine, Bandera and the OUN-B declared an independent Ukrainian State. Some of the published proclamations of the formation of this state say that it "will work closely with the National-Socialist Greater Germany, under the leadership of its leader Adolf Hitler which is forming a new order in Europe and the world and is helping the Ukrainian People to free itself from Moscovite occupation." - as stated in the text of the "Act of Proclamation of Ukrainian Statehood"


...looks like a Nazi...

Wikipedia wrote:In late 1942, Bandera's organization, the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, was involved in a campaign of ethnic cleansing of Volhynia, and in early 1944, these campaigns began to include Eastern Galicia. It is estimated that nearly 70,000 Poles, mostly women and children along with unarmed men, were killed during the spring and summer campaign of 1943 in Volhynia by the OUN-Bandera which bears primary responsibility for the massacres.


.. quacks like a Nazi...

Wikipedia wrote:In the subsection of "Minority Policy" the OUN-B ordered: "Moskali, Poles, and Jews that are hostile to us must be exterminated in this struggle, especially those who would resist our regime: deport them to their own lands, importantly: destroy their intelligentsia that may be in the positions of power ... Jews must be isolated, removed from governmental positions in order to prevent sabotage, those who are deemed necessary may only work with an overseer... Jewish assimilation is not possible."


... then it must be a Hero of Ukraine.
Last edited by engr on Sun Apr 20, 2014 11:02 pm UTC, edited 2 times in total.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. Gilbert K. Chesterton

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby engr » Sun Apr 20, 2014 10:50 pm UTC

EMTP wrote:They are different in that one of them is being run by the Russian special forces


Yeah, these ones are Russians puppets and demand a popular referendum, and the other ones are Western puppets and demand government overthrow (they refused early elections offer) and ethnic cleansing.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. Gilbert K. Chesterton

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby EMTP » Sun Apr 20, 2014 11:05 pm UTC

engr wrote:
EMTP wrote:They are different in that one of them is being run by the Russian special forces


Yeah, these ones are Russians puppets and demand a popular referendum, and the other ones are Western puppets and demand government overthrow (they refused early elections offer) and ethnic cleansing.


What are you trying to illustrate? That you're capable of a fantasy in which the two sides are morally equivalent? Of course you can.

Back in the real world, however, there are no "Western puppets" and there is no ethnic cleansing taking place.

Also, if allying yourself with the Germans to escape a mass-murdering Russian thug regime makes you a Nazi, does allying with Russia to defeat the Nazis make America and Britain Stalinists? Or is it maybe utterly ridiculous to equate a wartime alliance against a common enemy with an ideological identity?
Last edited by EMTP on Sun Apr 20, 2014 11:09 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.
"Reasonable – that is, human – men will always be capable of compromise, but men who have dehumanized themselves by becoming the blind worshipers of an idea or an ideal are fanatics whose devotion to abstractions makes them the enemies of life."
-- Alan Watts, "The Way of Zen"

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby engr » Sun Apr 20, 2014 11:08 pm UTC

EMTP wrote:Back in the real world, however, there are no "Western puppets" and there is no ethnic cleansing taking place.


Yeah, the coup leaders were just holding meetings with Western representatives during the coup and their electorate kept chanting "hang Russians". Nothing to see here, keep moving.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby EMTP » Sun Apr 20, 2014 11:10 pm UTC

engr wrote:
EMTP wrote:Back in the real world, however, there are no "Western puppets" and there is no ethnic cleansing taking place.


Yeah, the coup leaders were just holding meetings with Western representatives during the coup and their electorate kept chanting "hang Russians". Nothing to see here, keep moving.


We're seeing your delusional beliefs on display. That's about it.
"Reasonable – that is, human – men will always be capable of compromise, but men who have dehumanized themselves by becoming the blind worshipers of an idea or an ideal are fanatics whose devotion to abstractions makes them the enemies of life."
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Vahir » Sun Apr 20, 2014 11:43 pm UTC

There's no arguing with Engr here. He has a completely different view of this conflict than we do. Maybe he's right, and our view is the fabrication of every non-russian media in the world (though I doubt it). But we're not about to convince him, and he's not about to convince us, so this whole argument is just smacking our heads against a brick wall.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby addams » Mon Apr 21, 2014 4:03 am UTC

engr wrote:
Khelevaster wrote:
engr wrote:I see extreme right-wing nationalist militias who are openly threatening ethnic Russians with violence...

Where? Where do you see them? This is exactly the thing Russian news channels want you to believe.
There's a joke going around here that these extreme right-wing nationalists are like chupacabra: everyone's afraid of them but nobody has ever seen them.

Also your claim about open harrassment... Really?


Yeah, these guys are just my hallucinations. So are these. Or these kids. Or it was all staged by Russian media, no doubt. (For non-Ukrainian and non-Russian speakers on the boards: these nice guys are chanting "hang the Russian" and "cut Russians".)
Also, putting up hanging trees in the city centers (in the same places where Nazis used to hang Jews and Communists during WW2, by a strange coincidence) is totally not intimidation. Or when a politician on a PR trip comes into a kindergarten and tells a young girl "You are Olenka (Ukrainian name), not Alyona (Russian name), the moment you become Alyona you need to pack up your belongings and move to Moscow", this is totally not ethnic harassment. And this is just the stuff that they aren't ashamed to do in front of cameras.

"Act of Proclamation of Ukrainian Statehood"

Enger?
Are you still there?

I want to hear your side of the story.
You speak, read and write Russian?

I don't. I want to know what YouTube says, sometimes.
How is this for The People?

Thank you for the YouTube clips.
Without translation I may be seeing it wrong.

One clip showed a group of young men marching themselves through a plaza.
There was a businessman walking through the same Plaza in the background.

I'll look at it again.
Is it funny?

Is it the image The West wants us to see?
A business man mildly annoyed by Puffed Up, Rough and Ready Brigades.

Such an Honorable Military History.
Do you know about those people?

Are you one of them?
What did you hear?

Where did you learn that stuff?
I may have learned a bunch of Fairy Tails.

"It's cold in Russia." is the way some of those stories began and ended.
Do they still Revolt in the Summer and eat, read, sing and dance in the Winter?

When it is not too cold?
It's too cold all the Time?

Some of the stories were like a barren dystopian nightmare.
Some of the stories were stories of simple joyful living.

Some were epic Fails.
Some were Win-Win.

It can not be that way in Russia, now.
It may never have been that way.

Today The Stories are on The Internet

One of the other posters seems to think your version is fantasy.
Heck. I like that sort of thing. History is Mostly made up stuff, anyway.

Herstory tends to have a little more Human Interest.
We inhabit a 21st Century World. How are most People doing?

The People are clean, healthy and literate.
The people in the YouTube Clips looked good.

Those clips are nearly a month old.
Anything newer? I can't even Google in Russian.

Were the people wrapped in the Blue Flag university students?
I'd like a Guide through YouTube Clips.

If you are feeling generous,
I'd like to see more clips from the inside.

A little cultural translation would be nice, too.
Does Russia still do, "The Man on The Street" interviews?

Those can be darned funny.
How little people understand their own reasoning can be hysterical.
When it is not Tragic.

Like American Baggers that want "Those Darned Foreigners to Go Back to Africa and Mexico,where they came from, leaving the US for Real Americans."
If the Ukraine has that level of Stupid, I will not be Shocked. They are people, too. People are like Americans. We don't all suck. Still; It's a safe bet.
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We are all in The Gutter.
Some of us see The Gutter.
Some of us see The Stars.
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Those that do not Know; Don't tell them.
They do terrible things to people that Tell Them.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby engr » Mon Apr 21, 2014 4:21 am UTC

Vahir wrote:There's no arguing with Engr here. He has a completely different view of this conflict than we do. Maybe he's right, and our view is the fabrication of every non-russian media in the world (though I doubt it). But we're not about to convince him, and he's not about to convince us, so this whole argument is just smacking our heads against a brick wall.


[shrugs] As the saying goes, you can lead a horse to water, but you cannot make it drink. I showed you Ukrainian Nazis over and over, and you still say they exist only in my delusion.

I have access to Ukrainian, Russian, European, and American points of view. I have friends in Ukraine who share some info on what is going on there. What you see in Russian and some Ukrainian media simply does not appear in Western media. The best you can hope for is a brief mentioning of "Russian propaganda says ethnic Russians are threatened, but..."

Your view is not a fabrication. For journalists, there is rarely a need to lie, they just need to show only the facts that fit their employers view, and occasionally say thing like "the other side claims...". So I am not going to do the "WAKE UP SHEEPLE YOU ARE BEING LIED TO!!!11" ritual (I hate people who do this shit, although now I have a little more sympathy for them). You simply form conclusions based on the info you have, and this info is very one sided. I am far from hoping to persuade anyone on here; the best I can hope for is make you realize there is another side to the conflict and that there is a lot of info that is not available to you; and that if people who have access to both sides form opinion that is different from yours, it can be a good reason to pause and think that perhaps they are not all paranoid brainwashed zombied conspiracists.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby addams » Mon Apr 21, 2014 4:24 am UTC

Do you have more youtube clips?
Those are interesting.
Life is, just, an exchange of electrons; It is up to us to give it meaning.

We are all in The Gutter.
Some of us see The Gutter.
Some of us see The Stars.
by mr. Oscar Wilde.

Those that want to Know; Know.
Those that do not Know; Don't tell them.
They do terrible things to people that Tell Them.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby sardia » Mon Apr 21, 2014 4:26 am UTC

engr wrote:
EMTP wrote:Back in the real world, however, there are no "Western puppets" and there is no ethnic cleansing taking place.


Yeah, the coup leaders were just holding meetings with Western representatives during the coup and their electorate kept chanting "hang Russians". Nothing to see here, keep moving.

Are you claiming that both sides are bad, the West is bad, or the Russians are the best out of the nasty bunch? I may have asked you this already, but I wanted to make sure. Didn't you say something along the lines of Putin's a bastard, but maybe the Ukrainians deserve all this civil strife cuz x, y and z anecdotal evidence? Why is all your evidence Russian sources or youtube videos? Do you have any corroborating news sources? Like say, Chinese or Middle Eastern if you think Westerns ones are "biased". It seems you always come back with youtube videos, then you should watch some of the Ukrainian youtube videos posted. Wasn't there one describing a Russian colonel stating that he's from Russia and he's giving orders to a bunch of Ukrainian policemen?
engr wrote:
Vahir wrote:There's no arguing with Engr here. He has a completely different view of this conflict than we do. Maybe he's right, and our view is the fabrication of every non-russian media in the world (though I doubt it). But we're not about to convince him, and he's not about to convince us, so this whole argument is just smacking our heads against a brick wall.


[shrugs] As the saying goes, you can lead a horse to water, but you cannot make it drink. I showed you Ukrainian Nazis over and over, and you still say they exist only in my delusion.

I have access to Ukrainian, Russian, European, and American points of view. I have friends in Ukraine who share some info on what is going on there. What you see in Russian and some Ukrainian media simply does not appear in Western media. The best you can hope for is a brief mentioning of "Russian propaganda says ethnic Russians are threatened, but..."

Your view is not a fabrication. For journalists, there is rarely a need to lie, they just need to show only the facts that fit their employers view, and occasionally say thing like "the other side claims...". So I am not going to do the "WAKE UP SHEEPLE YOU ARE BEING LIED TO!!!11" ritual (I hate people who do this shit, although now I have a little more sympathy for them). You simply form conclusions based on the info you have, and this info is very one sided. I am far from hoping to persuade anyone on here; the best I can hope for is make you realize there is another side to the conflict and that there is a lot of info that is not available to you; and that if people who have access to both sides form opinion that is different from yours, it can be a good reason to pause and think that perhaps they are not all paranoid brainwashed zombied conspiracists.
If what you say is true, then I should be able to find alternating viewpoints say, from China or Qatar. What I find hard to believe, is that there are all these alternative viewpoints, and they all converge on Russia instigating a crisis in Ukraine. If it looks like, sounds like, and acts like propaganda, how are you sure that you aren't reading propaganda?
EMTP, I'm not sure how much the Ukrainians can do, even if Russia wasn't breathing down their necks with x thousands of troops across the border. To retake all those cities, you need lots of troops, and lots of support from the local population. Compounding the problem is that Ukraine doesn't want to kill all the protestors in their way, and they don't have the manpower to storm the cities like Russia did with Crimea. If you ignored the political ramifications, I suppose you could just gun down all the rebelling cities with tank and artillery fire, but then you open up a can of worms.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Mick » Mon Apr 21, 2014 12:52 pm UTC

The crisis in Ukraine is fault of present Ukrainian authorities. They wanted power and they got it but still they can't do anything to solve country's problems or at least to disarm militants from the Right Sector which today is absolutely uncontrolled and dangerous force. Authorities of Ukraine accusing everyone and whining about bad situation and lack of money in budget instead of governing the country and that's what's going on in Ukraine these days. And I'm not surprised with people who are scared by both the Right Sector and the government that prefers fighting inside parliament and make senseless statements to some real work.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby addams » Mon Apr 21, 2014 3:40 pm UTC

Wot?
Wot Can-de-Worm?

seriously.
I get my News from xkcd.

I don't think I know fuck about International Politics.
I don't think I know fuck about Chimera.

I have a mild Professional Interest.
It sometimes feels like I failed that Class.

What the Hell was the Subject?
Geo-Politics?

Spoiler:
I took Geo-Politics at The University of Oregon.
I took a Post Grad Geo-Politics class in 2002 2003 2004?

Such a Weird Experience.
I turned to The University for Knowledge.

The World was Coming Apart at the Seams.
I like Science. I like People. I like Art.

I was doing Fine. I thought.
I was told, "It's Politics."

Of course, I had my usual Blank Look.
"Politics? What's That?"

After a little quiet consideration,
I decided to take a Quick Catch Up Course or Five.

Like a Politician deciding to Learn a little about Biology before hanging out with Biologists.
Why? Because, Politics is Important in some ways.

I had some of this explained to me.
Politics is important like Laws are important.

I had been walking around thinking,
It is best to not have to think about it, much.
I don't have to think about The Law against many things. Do you?

When A Law changes we need Public Service Announcements.
That's Not Politics. That is Public Health.

Of course, Politicians make Law.
They have a Process they have to go through.

The process is like a Rotary Eugene.
It's weird, but it gets The Job done.


After the 2000 Election people kept telling me,
"You Are Wrong!" So I went off to learn.

I was doing fine in Class, I thought.
I can be a good student in most classes taught in English.

I took classes in taking classes.
I thought it would come Naturally.

I was doing ok. Until.(.Da-Dum...scary music)
I was in a Class with a Bunch of International students.

Some Big Wig without a Wig was flying in from Washington DC.
Our Illustrious Leader, (can't remember his name) had Blown the Man or something.

The Wig was going to Grace us with his Presence.
We were required to buy his Paper.
It had been published by The University.

It was a little Book that cost $60.00 and was Damned Near Unreadable.
Our Orders were to Read that Book, and be prepared with intelligent questions.

Following Orders I arrived took a seat and when the Questions died down,
Raised my hand. I said, "One page 42 you wrote, (i read it from the book. it was one long sentence or two short ones.)
"I can understand writing it. Why did you leave it in?"

Jesus Christ!
What a Jerk!

He did not answer my question.
He said something about me being too old to be in that class.
He said something about me being too old to be dressed like that.

He said, "What Is Your Name?!" Then he didn't wait for an answer.
He asked one of the Other Guys from his entourage to get my name.

Did I learn anything about Geo-Politics?
Yes. A little. not enough.

The window of my car was broken and my books and papers stolen.
I thought it was a random crime. These things happen randomly.

Of course, like with any subject the classes were most memorable when the Instructor wanders off into Personal Experiences and Stories that illustrate the Point.
That man was jumping up and down thrilled about some of the things he had seen with his own eyes. Transfer of Wealth. Cash.

I'd get all (*scrunchy eyes*) Transfer of Wealth?
No. Transfer of Cash. US cash. Not Wealth.

Wealth can not be transferred in Cash.
He did not have to tell me that.

But he did. He was not teach Psychology.
He was teaching Geo-Politics.

Where was that Cash going?
It was Going in Suit Cases between the legs of Tall Men.

Like something out of a movie.
It was going into the Middle East.

Where was it going?
What was it buying?

The Little Bastard was not shy about it.
I did not understand the euphemisms.

Terrorists. Combatants. Persons of Interest.
Do you know what I heard? I heard Glee in his voice.

It was like a Game to that man.
FootBall Fever?

Do you think they cared if I handed those Books and Papers over to the Local Police?
The Local Police don't give a Shit. They can't read those papers.

The stories?
Hearsay. Gossip.

Who speaks English?
I Do! I Do!

Can you understand when a man talks about a Hero for 45 minutes?
Those poor International Students. Constantine was his HeartThrob.

Some could not understand his accent.
The way he responded to criticism that came in the form of a request for Clarification about his accent?

We got a 45 minute lecture about the Trashy Mindless Nasal Accent of the Oregon Woman.

No Fucking Wonder only Idiots go into Politics!
Only in Politics are Adults allowed to behave so Juvenile.

Only in Politics can AssHoles do so much harm?
Who is worse?
A.) The AssHole that uses the tool.
B.) The Scientist that described it and handed it over to that AssHole.

I'll sit on the sidelines and wonder about that for a while.
Has it always been this way?

Who gives a Fuck what happened way back in 2002?
We have the Crimea War to Fight, again.
Life is, just, an exchange of electrons; It is up to us to give it meaning.

We are all in The Gutter.
Some of us see The Gutter.
Some of us see The Stars.
by mr. Oscar Wilde.

Those that want to Know; Know.
Those that do not Know; Don't tell them.
They do terrible things to people that Tell Them.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby EMTP » Mon Apr 21, 2014 9:02 pm UTC

EMTP, I'm not sure how much the Ukrainians can do, even if Russia wasn't breathing down their necks with x thousands of troops across the border. To retake all those cities, you need lots of troops, and lots of support from the local population. Compounding the problem is that Ukraine doesn't want to kill all the protestors in their way, and they don't have the manpower to storm the cities like Russia did with Crimea. If you ignored the political ramifications, I suppose you could just gun down all the rebelling cities with tank and artillery fire, but then you open up a can of worms.


I don't know the exact constraints the Ukrainian government is operating under, but I would hope that they could take and hold government property and be a visible presence on the street.

I don't see any evidence majorities in these regions support what Russia is doing, much as Russian propaganda would have us believe they do. I'm reading that demonstrations are small and armed men (likely Russian special forces) figure prominently.

As to what we could do, there's a lot. We can apply sanctions to Russia, stop the gas flowing, freeze their assets. America can send money and weapons to Kiev, and/or send in special forces of our own.

I'm reading Churchill's A Gathering Storm at the moment, and I find it a timely reminder the aggressors who seem economically and militarily weak may not remain so if the people with the upper hand are not willing to exert themselves to maintain the balance of power. This is no longer just about the territory in question but about the fact that Putin believes he's found a formula by which he can reclaim the Soviet empire, piece by piece. We need to correct his thinking on that point.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby sardia » Mon Apr 21, 2014 9:28 pm UTC

You're describing things for the West to do. Specifically, you're describing what Europe should be doing. I was talking about how limited and apparently crippled the Ukrainians are.

Anyway, the West is mainly constrained by what the big European countries want, money from Russia. Even if it means that Ukraine or any other East European country has to pay the price. That way, giving Russia the benefit of the doubt allows them to continue trade with Russia until the last shred of doubt disappears. Does this fear of falsely accusing Russia,false positives, lead into ignoring a land invasion of a soveriegn country,false negative? Yes, but it benefits Western Europe to not hurt Russia because it lets them not hurt their own economies.

As to why the US has to be united with Europe instead of striking out on it's own? Probably bad memories of Iraq, combined with the fact that the US can leverage NATO/EU/West more effectively then it potentially can alone. Having 1 strong dude has x power. Having 1 strong dude lead 25 couch potatoes can generate more than x power. Having 1 strong dude herd cats into line generates squat. Right now, the situation looks more like herding cats with a veneer of a united front.

However, maybe Western Europe will realize that there is a sea change when Eastern Ukraine's crisis spreads. Or maybe when Putin sends troops into Eastern Ukraine. Or possibly when Western Ukraine falls. Or on the extreme end when the USSR ressurects itself. Somewhere along that slippery slope, Western Europe will act forcefully. Of course, if Putin stays put with its gains, then we'll never know what Europe considers as a cause for war.
Last edited by sardia on Mon Apr 21, 2014 9:51 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby EMTP » Mon Apr 21, 2014 9:48 pm UTC

sardia wrote:You're describing things for the West to do. Specifically, you're describing what Europe should be doing. I was talking about how limited and apparently crippled the Ukrainians are.


Right, because my point was that both Ukraine and the West need to get more active and aggressive. You focused on one part of my point, and after addressing your criticism I elaborated on the other part as well.

I didn't and don't disagree that Ukraine is limited in its options and, moreover, we don't know exactly what those limits are. That makes it difficult to critique their strategy in real time.

Anyway, the West is mainly constrained by what the big European countries want, money from Russia. Even if it means that Ukraine or any other East European country has to pay the price. That way, giving Russia the benefit of the doubt allows them to continue trade with Russia until the last shred of doubt disappears. Does this fear of falsely accusing Russia,false positives, lead into ignoring a land invasion of a soveriegn country,false negative? Yes, but it benefits Western Europe to not hurt Russia because it lets them not hurt their own economies.


I typically find your writing very clear and cogent, but I must confess I lost you towards the end there. The West needs to recognize this as a major threat to the post-war order in Europe and get motivated to do something about it. Whether they will, I have no idea.

As to why the US has to be united with Europe instead of striking out on it's own? Probably bad memories of Iraq, combined with the fact that the US can leverage NATO/EU/West more effectively then it potentially can alone. Having 1 strong dude has x power. Having 1 strong dude lead 25 couch potatoes can generate more than x power. Having 1 strong dude herd cats into line generates squat. Right now, the situation looks more like herding cats with a veneer of a united front.


On this one, we should lead. If anything, US meddling in the conflict is likely to help motive Europe to reassert control of their own immediate neighborhood.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby sardia » Mon Apr 21, 2014 9:56 pm UTC

Anyway, the West is mainly constrained by what the big European countries want, money from Russia. Even if it means that Ukraine or any other East European country has to pay the price. That way, giving Russia the benefit of the doubt allows them to continue trade with Russia until the last shred of doubt disappears. Does this fear of falsely accusing Russia,false positives, lead into ignoring a land invasion of a soveriegn country,false negative? Yes, but it benefits Western Europe to not hurt Russia because it lets them not hurt their own economies.
To clarify:
Europe trades a lot with Russia, and that trade generates a lot of jobs and translate into a lot of money for everyone involved. Punishing Russia would mean cutting those trade ties, especially if military force is out of the question. Less trade= lost gdp from trade, aka a worse economy. Europe won't do that to themselves without a clear and present danger. So long as it can be framed as a civil dispute between neighbors, then Europe is free to stand on the sidelines. The actual situation is more complex, and there is movement towards stiffer sanctions, but the underlying reluctance is there.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Ormurinn » Mon Apr 21, 2014 10:07 pm UTC

Sanctions will hurt the EU more than they hurt Russia, Russia's far more self sufficient than we are.

As for military intervention, that's the UK, France and Germany. I can only speak for the UK, but were not doing shit. The govt tried to drag us into Syria, but credit to him, Cameron bowed to pressure from MPs ( and thus indirectly the public). The cabinet won't want egg on their face again.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby EMTP » Mon Apr 21, 2014 10:10 pm UTC

sardia wrote:To clarify:
Europe trades a lot with Russia, and that trade generates a lot of jobs and translate into a lot of money for everyone involved. Punishing Russia would mean cutting those trade ties, especially if military force is out of the question. Less trade= lost gdp from trade, aka a worse economy. Europe won't do that to themselves without a clear and present danger. So long as it can be framed as a civil dispute between neighbors, then Europe is free to stand on the sidelines. The actual situation is more complex, and there is movement towards stiffer sanctions, but the underlying reluctance is there.


I wonder how their economies would be affected by a few million refugees from a war in Ukraine? Or an insurgency against a Russian occupation? Or by further moves to annex areas with large Russian populations -- such as the Baltic states?

I think the cost-effective course for all concerned is to deal with the problem while it is small. Of course, they may chose not to heed the lessons of history and hope that an aggressive, imperially minded autocrat who has repeatedly seized land in neighboring countries with no real consequences will be content and not continue using the tactics that have been successful so far.
Sanctions will hurt the EU more than they hurt Russia, Russia's far more self sufficient than we are.


You're kidding, right? Russia's basically a petrostate at this point:

Russia's economy is highly dependent on its hydrocarbons, and oil and gas revenues account for more than 50% of the federal budget revenues.


They can't sell oil and gas, and their government is broke, period. Different countries would have different levels of difficulty doing without Russian oil and gas, but none of them would be as devastated as Russia would be without the ability to sell it.
Last edited by EMTP on Mon Apr 21, 2014 10:14 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby bigglesworth » Mon Apr 21, 2014 10:14 pm UTC

sardia wrote:Even if it means that Ukraine or any other East European country has to pay the price.
You say that, but Ukraine was not a NATO member whereas most of the other East European countries the EU might be interested in are.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby addams » Mon Apr 21, 2014 10:23 pm UTC

EMTP wrote:
sardia wrote:To clarify:
Europe trades a lot with Russia, and that trade generates a lot of jobs and translate into a lot of money for everyone involved. Punishing Russia would mean cutting those trade ties, especially if military force is out of the question. Less trade= lost gdp from trade, aka a worse economy. Europe won't do that to themselves without a clear and present danger. So long as it can be framed as a civil dispute between neighbors, then Europe is free to stand on the sidelines. The actual situation is more complex, and there is movement towards stiffer sanctions, but the underlying reluctance is there.


I wonder how their economies would be affected by a few million refugees from a war in Ukraine? Or an insurgency against a Russian occupation? Or by further moves to annex areas with large Russian populations -- such as the Baltic states?

I think the cost-effective course for all concerned is to deal with the problem while it is small. Of course, they may chose not to heed the lessons of history and hope that an aggressive, imperially minded autocrat who has repeatedly seized land in neighboring countries with no real consequences will be content and not continue using the tactics that have been successful so far.
Sanctions will hurt the EU more than they hurt Russia, Russia's far more self sufficient than we are.


You're kidding, right? Russia's basically a petrostate at this point:

Russia's economy is highly dependent on its hydrocarbons, and oil and gas revenues account for more than 50% of the federal budget revenues.


They can't sell oil and gas, and their government is broke, period. Different countries would have different levels of difficulty doing without Russian oil and gas, but none of them would be as devastated as Russia would be without the ability to sell it.

What is this?
A Plan taken from the George H, Gulf War One: PlayBook?

You may have the Oil.
You can't do anything with it, without our permission.


Remember when the Oil Fields Burned?
That was a Real War. Was it not?

How far does the US Political Influence reach?
Across Europe into Russia?
Or;
Does it stop at the Ukraine?

Poor Ukraine.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby EMTP » Mon Apr 21, 2014 10:29 pm UTC

aadams, not buying stuff from someone you're in conflict with is the most peaceful way of opposing their will that I know of, aside from just piously wishing it away.

The EU is Russia's largest trading partner, accounting for over 185 billion euros in exports per year. 70% of that is hydrocarbons.

There is lots of room to pressure Russia with our own behavior, without the use of violence.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby sardia » Mon Apr 21, 2014 10:38 pm UTC

bigglesworth wrote:You say that, but Ukraine was not a NATO member whereas most of the other East European countries the EU might be interested in are.

I do believe there are still countries in Europe that are not apart of NATO yet and that Russia is still interested in.
I wonder how their economies would be affected by a few million refugees from a war in Ukraine? Or an insurgency against a Russian occupation? Or by further moves to annex areas with large Russian populations -- such as the Baltic states?

I think the cost-effective course for all concerned is to deal with the problem while it is small. Of course, they may chose not to heed the lessons of history and hope that an aggressive, imperially minded autocrat who has repeatedly seized land in neighboring countries with no real consequences will be content and not continue using the tactics that have been successful so far.
Yes, all out war would probably be cause for NATO and the EU to do something about this. However, if Putin and Western Europe are willing to take the gamble that it won't escalate that far...Then you're stuck. Even if they are wrong, and it escalates out of control, so long as West Europe believes that it won't escalate, then it won't push for harsher sanctions.

Note: We may be pretty harsh on West Europe here, and the US, but that's because we have the luxury of not being in the hot seat. If anybody responds to an escalation the wrong way, then it's war. Remember how the US was trying to contain Japan in WWII? It's hard to tell the difference between a successful cold war containment, vs war.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby bigglesworth » Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:08 pm UTC

sardia wrote:
bigglesworth wrote:You say that, but Ukraine was not a NATO member whereas most of the other East European countries the EU might be interested in are.
I do believe there are still countries in Europe that are not apart of NATO yet and that Russia is still interested in.
Belarus. But they weren't even talking to NATO about membership. Though they are included in the Budapest Memorandum - which I didn't realise, I thought that document only dealt with Ukraine since they had nuclear weapons.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Tyndmyr » Tue Apr 22, 2014 8:37 am UTC

Mick wrote:The crisis in Ukraine is fault of present Ukrainian authorities. They wanted power and they got it but still they can't do anything to solve country's problems or at least to disarm militants from the Right Sector which today is absolutely uncontrolled and dangerous force. Authorities of Ukraine accusing everyone and whining about bad situation and lack of money in budget instead of governing the country and that's what's going on in Ukraine these days. And I'm not surprised with people who are scared by both the Right Sector and the government that prefers fighting inside parliament and make senseless statements to some real work.


Ehhh...I hesitate to blame them. They had some big leadership issues, and when they tried to fix those, Russian intervention kind of screwed them. The lack of money is a result of the prior admin, and the bad situation is something they got hit with immediately upon gaining power. I'm not really sure what you think they should have done differently.

They can't punch it out with Russia. Or rather, they *could*, but they would certainly lose. This severely constrains realistic options. It takes significant time and resources to build a competent military. That's outside the timescale of this conflict as an option(though likely good policy if they get through this). Ukraine is terribly low on options barring very significant external assistance.

EMTP wrote:On this one, we should lead. If anything, US meddling in the conflict is likely to help motive Europe to reassert control of their own immediate neighborhood.


Perhaps. I agree that US or united European involvement(or better, both) is the only way to stabilize the situation without further Russian gains. However, the same problem that Europe faces is also one that the US faces. The American people are not eager for the potential of more conflict. There's not even a lot of political will to take the issue on. Right, wrong, the Dems aren't going to start pushing for an unpopular foreign military entanglement when an already ugly re-election fight looms.

Maybe we should start taking bets on the next place of conflict after E Ukraine? Belarus, maybe? I view the Russians as opportunistically taking the best strategic option for expansion when it arises, so the question is which bordering country will next present a sufficiently good opportunity, really.

But yeah, history is not particularly sanguine about the policy of ignoring aggressive expansionism.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Diadem » Tue Apr 22, 2014 9:11 am UTC

bigglesworth wrote:
sardia wrote:
bigglesworth wrote:You say that, but Ukraine was not a NATO member whereas most of the other East European countries the EU might be interested in are.
I do believe there are still countries in Europe that are not apart of NATO yet and that Russia is still interested in.
Belarus. But they weren't even talking to NATO about membership. Though they are included in the Budapest Memorandum - which I didn't realise, I thought that document only dealt with Ukraine since they had nuclear weapons.

Also: Ireland, Sweden, Finland, Switzerland, Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Macedonia, Moldova and Cyprus. Plus most or even all of the micro-nations I think. Most of those are solidly in the Western sphere of influence though, many are EU members or candidate members. Switzerland is neither, but is definitely a western power.

That basically leaves Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova. Belarus is already solidly in the Russian sphere of influence though, no need to instigate anything there. As for Moldova, yeah, Russia already has its eyes on that country, and in fact already controls part of their territory.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Ormurinn » Tue Apr 22, 2014 10:15 am UTC

[quote="EMTP]
Sanctions will hurt the EU more than they hurt Russia, Russia's far more self sufficient than we are.


You're kidding, right? Russia's basically a petrostate at this point:

Russia's economy is highly dependent on its hydrocarbons, and oil and gas revenues account for more than 50% of the federal budget revenues.


They can't sell oil and gas, and their government is broke, period. Different countries would have different levels of difficulty doing without Russian oil and gas, but none of them would be as devastated as Russia would be without the ability to sell it.[/quote].[/quote]

The magic of substitutability makes this easy to check. Heres my source;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... et_exports

The EU's Major net exporters:
Germany 219.938
Norway 67.982
Netherlands 63.145
Ireland 60.786
Switzerland 26.947
Denmark 15.546

The EU's Major net importers:
United Kingdom -162.973
France -117.676
Italy -33.872
Greece -27.773
Poland -20.271
Romania -13.532
Austria -12.408

SUM= 65.8390

Russia's Trade balance - 198.760

So taken as a whole, Russia is more self-sufficient than the EU (It's net production is greater). The situation get's eve worse when you consider that Norway and Switzerland don't actually influence EU actions.

It's made even worse(er) by he fact that an EU embargo on oil imports just makes Oil cheaper for China, India and Turkey, Russia can still sell it's oil. OTOH a lot of German automotive OEM's have contracts with Russian companies...
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby addams » Tue Apr 22, 2014 1:42 pm UTC

Diadem wrote:
sardia wrote:
bigglesworth wrote:You say that, but Ukraine was not a NATO member whereas most of the other East European countries the EU might be interested in are.
I do believe there are still countries in Europe that are not apart of NATO yet and that Russia is still interested in.
Belarus. But they weren't even talking to NATO about membership. Though they are included in the Budapest Memorandum - which I didn't realise, I thought that document only dealt with Ukraine since they had nuclear weapons.

Also: Ireland, Sweden, Finland, Switzerland, Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Macedonia, Moldova and Cyprus. Plus most or even all of the micro-nations I think. Most of those are solidly in the Western sphere of influence though, many are EU members or candidate members. Switzerland is neither, but is definitely a western power.

That basically leaves Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova. Belarus is already solidly in the Russian sphere of influence though, no need to instigate anything there. As for Moldova, yeah, Russia already has its eyes on that country, and in fact already controls part of their territory.

Sphere of Influence?
Such old fashioned language.

Who have you been listening to? McCain?
He is an Old Man with a fossilized world view.
You, too?

Control from Moscow or control from the US?
The world has only two choices? Only two?

How tough is that choice?
The US and her people are a fucking Disaster.
Russia? How is Russia to her people? I don't know.

Do you? Do you know?
What about Human Rights?
What about Welfare and Medical care?
Education? Do the people value the human mind?

Who has The Money?
Not the US.

The US owes more than its worth in War Debt to China.
Are the people of Europe torn? Who to side with?

Gosh. Look at the photos. Talk to the people.
How is the Ukraine after Russian invasion?
How are Middle East Nations after US invasion?

The US has been sliding along on Good Will earned by people that are dead.
The living are a Fucking Disaster. The US congress can't administer Fuck.

The US is using Communist Chinese Money. An impressive amount. ...Still..
And; You want to put the well being of your nation and your people under US influence?

Why?
Russian Prisons?
Fear of Russian Prisons?

75 years ago Russian Prisons were scary.
Have they not remodeled in 75 years?

Did you see The Tank U-tube Clip?
I can not find it in usable form.

tisk-tisk.
The Russians were using a Ukraine tank to go in circles.
People were laughing and filming it with iPads and phones.

That's the way to do it.
I know. It almost seems like cheating.
They invaded a modern nation they share a language with.

They tried Afghanistan. It was too hard.
The Canadians left Afghanistan, too.
Afghanistan is US soil, now.

Why the Hell would the US want another War?
Moral Human Rights Issues?

Hey! US!
You have Human Rights Issues at Home!
Let us reason together.

It's cheeper to take care of your own than it is to kill others.
I know. I know. No Media Coverage=No Election=No Money.

Carry On.
US to invade Russia from the West?
Is McCain still setting up Nukes in Czech Republic?

That little Bastard knows how to stay in the Lime Light.
Will he have his little lifted face placed on the missiles?

EDIT:
Do you think Putin ever gets out of bed and thinks,
"I don't feel like invading, today. Let's Not."

Does McCain?
It is so weird to see McCain as Acting President while the guy with The Entourage stays Home.
And; Chats on the Phone with a stranger? Is that what it said?

Mr. Obama spoke via phone with Mr. Putin?
Mr. McCain spoke directly to the Presidents of the Ukraine?

How weird is That?
Is the Ukraine part of the US Tea Bagger Movement?

Is McCain taking the US show on The Road? Why?
Is that Old News, now?

What is our Acting President up to.
McCain is working on a Reputation as a Man that Gets Things Done?

The first Bagger President?
I don't know. what do you think?

Who does that little Bastard speak for?
Is is certainly Not Me!

As a US citizen and a citizen of the world.
"US; Go Home and Clean Up."

When you get there Turn On a Light.
It is dark even on a sunny day at Your House.

What ya' hiding US? huh?
Do you need international inspectors?

Yes. I agree. US you need international inspectors.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby PolakoVoador » Tue Apr 22, 2014 7:15 pm UTC

Ukraine alert as politician 'killed'

BBC wrote:Ukraine's acting president has relaunched military operations against pro-Russian militants in the east after two men, one a local politician, were found "tortured to death".

Oleksandr Turchynov said the politician, named as Vladimir Rybak, was found near rebel-held Sloviansk.

"The terrorists who effectively took the whole Donetsk region hostage have now gone too far," he said.


It seems the acting government still wants to force its way into the rebel* cities. I'm afraid this can lead to an all-out escalation.

* Does anyone have an inside view from these easter Ukraine cities, like Donetsk? I understand Crimea's referendum might have had a russian victory even with fair votes (russian majority, etc), but what about Donetsk, Luhansk and others? Is there popular support for the occupation of government buildings? Is it just a very noisy minority supported by Russia? I appreciate if someone can shed some light in this issue.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Tchebu » Tue Apr 22, 2014 8:05 pm UTC

Ehhh...I hesitate to blame them. They had some big leadership issues, and when they tried to fix those, Russian intervention kind of screwed them. The lack of money is a result of the prior admin, and the bad situation is something they got hit with immediately upon gaining power. I'm not really sure what you think they should have done differently.

Well they could have pushed towards peaceful gradual change in the political climate of the country, tried winning the next elections, etc. rather than fueling angry protests with a subsequent violent overthrow of power... You can't just go "things are shitty, let's throw out the guy in charge" without a well-prepared plan for fixing things, because things will just stay shitty. It also helps if your actions don't carry strong undertones of animosity towards any powerful neighbors you might have who have essentially subsidized your economy for years and rely on friendly relations with your country for their own long-term geopolitical stability, especially when a significant chunk of your population sympathizes with said neighbor...

Questions of the legitimacy of Russia's actions aside, the current government acted with the foresight of a cat in a sandstorm and pretty much got what was coming to them.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Tyndmyr » Tue Apr 22, 2014 8:14 pm UTC

Tchebu wrote:
Ehhh...I hesitate to blame them. They had some big leadership issues, and when they tried to fix those, Russian intervention kind of screwed them. The lack of money is a result of the prior admin, and the bad situation is something they got hit with immediately upon gaining power. I'm not really sure what you think they should have done differently.

Well they could have pushed towards peaceful gradual change in political climate of the country, tried winning the next elections, etc. rather than fueling angry protests with a subsequent violent overthrow of power... You can't just go "things are shitty, let's throw out the guy in charge" without a well-prepared plan for fixing things, because things will just stay shitty. It also helps if your actions don't carry strong undertones of animosity towards any powerful neighbors you might have who have essentially subsidized your economy for years and rely on friendly relations with your country for their own long-term geopolitical stability, especially when a significant chunk of your population sympathizes with said neighbor...

Questions of the legitimacy of Russia's actions aside, the current government acted with the foresight of a cat in a sandstorm and pretty much got what was coming to them.


Had they taken it slower, they would not have ended up with a healthy government or a fat bank account because those things were already screwed.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby CorruptUser » Tue Apr 22, 2014 8:15 pm UTC

You do realize that the ousted president was accused of electoral fraud, right ? Kind of hard to "try to win elections" when fraud is involved.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Tchebu » Tue Apr 22, 2014 8:45 pm UTC

Had they taken it slower, they would not have ended up with a healthy government or a fat bank account because those things were already screwed.

And they certainly have both of those things now...

You do realize that the ousted president was accused of electoral fraud, right ? Kind of hard to "try to win elections" when fraud is involved.

And I'm still not convinced that a violent overthrow was the correct answer... Or fine, maybe things were so bad that it was, but certainly not such a sloppy one with no adequate follow-up. The whole incident with the attempt to pass legislation limiting Russian language, especially given that it's the very first thing they did, illustrates perfectly how much they have no clue what they're doing. They basically just went "yaaaaay we're in charge!!! ok first things first: fuck Russia", with a subsequent "oh shit, we pissed them off, take it back take it back"... Of all the possible things they could have done, giving the finger to their biggest partner in the region and alienating like a third of their population on ethnic grounds took priority for some reason. That strikes me as ridiculously ignorant of both the demographics of Ukraine and the country's place in international politics.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby CorruptUser » Tue Apr 22, 2014 8:49 pm UTC

Violent overthrow is necessary when peaceful overthrow is impossible.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Tyndmyr » Tue Apr 22, 2014 8:54 pm UTC

Tchebu wrote:
Had they taken it slower, they would not have ended up with a healthy government or a fat bank account because those things were already screwed.

And they certainly have both of those things now...

You do realize that the ousted president was accused of electoral fraud, right ? Kind of hard to "try to win elections" when fraud is involved.

And I'm still not convinced that a violent overthrow was the correct answer... Or fine, maybe things were so bad that it was, but certainly not such a sloppy one with no adequate follow-up. The whole incident with the attempt to pass legislation limiting Russian language, especially given that it's the very first thing they did, illustrates perfectly how much they have no clue what they're doing. They basically just went "yaaaaay we're in charge!!! ok first things first: fuck Russia", with a subsequent "oh shit, we pissed them off, take it back take it back"... Of all the possible things they could have done, giving the finger to their biggest partner in the region and alienating like a third of their population on ethnic grounds took priority for some reason. That strikes me as ridiculously ignorant of both the demographics of Ukraine and the country's place in international politics.


Yes, but what BETTER option did they have than what they did?

Russia supported the previous dude, because he was basically a corrupt shill for them. Tossing him out meant they were already on the outs with Russia. No way around that. Trying to make nice with other powers is a logical move, given that.

They're not playing dumb, they just had a shitty position to play with. That's how geopolitics is sometimes.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Tchebu » Tue Apr 22, 2014 10:10 pm UTC

Yes, but what BETTER option did they have than what they did?

They could have not given the finger to Russia at the first chance they got...
There's a difference between being pro-EU and anti-Russian and they decided to be both.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Tyndmyr » Tue Apr 22, 2014 10:13 pm UTC

Tchebu wrote:
Yes, but what BETTER option did they have than what they did?

They could have not given the finger to Russia at the first chance they got...
There's a difference between being pro-EU and anti-Russian and they decided to be both.


Dude, they had to toss out the pro-russian puppet. That's...gonna come across as anti-russian.

It'd be like saying "look, we love russia, we just hate putin". That kind of nuance isn't going to matter. Russian interests suffer regardless, Russia acts.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Ormurinn » Wed Apr 23, 2014 11:39 am UTC

CorruptUser wrote:Violent overthrow is necessary when peaceful overthrow is impossible.


Said the Crimean, smiling at incoming Russian troops.
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