Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

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Tyndmyr
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Tyndmyr » Thu May 08, 2014 5:34 pm UTC

EMTP wrote:
Zcorp wrote:Heck most of it is about Russia economy being strong than the EU's, EMTP's statement doesn't even express understanding of that at all.


It doesn't happen to be true that Russia's economy is stronger than the EU's. And the article does not say that. And even if it did, I'm certainly not under any obligation to summarize the content of a link point by point. The link is there so that you can read the article and draw your own conclusions.


I posit that it doesn't matter. Russia is not fighting the whole EU. That's not a reasonable outcome of this. The EU isn't even willing to get particularly aggressive with sanctions, or willing to throw, say, arms at Ukraine. They are not gonna all fight it out with Russia. Total economic size is interesting, but it's not going to determine the outcome here. In Russia vs Ukraine, the likely victor is clear, regardless of if you measure GDP or troops.

Yeah, sometimes underdogs win, but usually it's because they have great unity, lots of experience, better equipment, or other edges. These seem unlikely to apply in this situation.

Good news is, Eastern Ukraine doesn't seem to have a groundswell of support for Russia, even with all the instigation. The increased focus in the wake of the Crimean incident makes it a little harder to plausibly move in troops, so the question is mostly how much of a worldwide PR hit does Putin want to take? It probably isn't THAT big a cost all in all, and my guess is if he's gone this far, he's likely willing to go a bit further. He'll push until further gains look too expensive, then declare victory and wait for the next opportunity for expansion to arise.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby bigglesworth » Thu May 08, 2014 5:44 pm UTC

I still think that Putin is pushing East Ukraine half-heartedly to keep it going, to make leaving it part of Ukraine look like a concession and prevent Crimea from being on the table.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby freezeblade » Thu May 08, 2014 5:47 pm UTC

bigglesworth wrote:I still think that Putin is pushing East Ukraine half-heartedly to keep it going, to make leaving it part of Ukraine look like a concession and prevent Crimea from being on the table.


This is my read on the situation as well.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Tyndmyr » Thu May 08, 2014 6:37 pm UTC

bigglesworth wrote:I still think that Putin is pushing East Ukraine half-heartedly to keep it going, to make leaving it part of Ukraine look like a concession and prevent Crimea from being on the table.


Maybe. I think he'd nab E Ukraine in a heartbeat if he thought he could get away with it for a low enough cost. I mean, he held off on asking for a delay on the referendum until after it was already clear that there was no groundswell of support, yes? If he had enough plausibility, he'd probably just roll with it and take a good chunk of Ukraine. It's a low risk situation for him. Blame the protestors for any excesses, reap the benefits if it pans out.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Zcorp » Thu May 08, 2014 6:53 pm UTC

EMTP wrote:It doesn't happen to be true that Russia's economy is stronger than the EU's. And the article does not say that. And even if it did, I'm certainly not under any obligation to summarize the content of a link point by point. The link is there so that you can read the article and draw your own conclusions.


Not really sure why I'm having to quote your own article back at you, but here...I guess. I'm not even making any argument, I'm just...actually reading what the article you linked said, while being amazed you could draw the conclusion you did from reading it.

article you linked wrote:Despite these upsets, Russia appears to hold strong economic as well as military cards. It provides 24% of the European Union’s gas and 30% of its oil. Its grip on Ukraine’s gas and oil consumption is tighter still. That makes it hard for the West to design sanctions that do not backfire.

Russia’s public finances are also much healthier than those of many of the countries against which it is pitted over Ukraine. The budget deficit was 1.3% of GDP last year, whereas it stood at 3.3% for the EU. Government debt amounted to a mere 13% of GDP, compared with 87% in the EU.

Among emerging economies, Russia appears to have stout defences to withstand external pressure. New estimates of GDP evaluated at purchasing-power parity exchange rates from the World Bank (see article) show that in 2011 it was the sixth-biggest economy in the world on this measure, only just behind Germany. Thanks to its huge energy exports, Russia’s current account is in surplus, forecast by the IMF to be 2.1% of GDP in 2014.

...

Despite these strengths, however, the Russian economy is far from invulnerable.


EMTP wrote:Speaking of not easy to understand, would you like to simplify and clarify your point here?
Yes, sometimes my posts could be more succinct, which part did you not understand? The only point I made, in the part you quoted, relevant to you or the discussion is that one of Ukraine's major exports is fuel.

The comparison of Russia's actions promoting violence in Ukraine with America's invasion of Iraq might be an interesting thesis topic, but there's no one to one relationship

Cool, cause no one claimed it was a one to one relationship. No one even really made a comparison of the events at all. There was simply a parallel drawn to illustrate a point.That point, which you again don't bother to read, is understand what is at stake when you are talking about costs.

Making a mess of Iraq was an awful, unforgivable thing to do, but beyond the direct military costs, the expenses caring for veterans, and a big heap of our credibility, we could basically leave Iraq and be done with it to a great extent.

Sigh. We invade a country on a lie, and now we rape their resources and you are okay with just walking away? Take some responsibility for the actions of your country. While, blowing shit up and leaving other people to clean up the mess is certainly a wonderfully American thing to do, you should want and expect better from our behavior.

We brought destruction on a country that will take decades longer to recover. This is what we did in Afghanistan as well. Ditching destroyed countries, if we did the destroying or used them as a proxy to fight our wars, is not only a terrible thing to do to those other people, it also creates enemies of America that we will spend billions fighting. Don't you want to lead by example? Don't you want to try and get it right, don't you want to be worth emulating? Sentiments like this are really good reasons for the middle-east and various other places to hate us and want to blow us up.
Last edited by Zcorp on Thu May 08, 2014 7:33 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Vahir » Thu May 08, 2014 7:09 pm UTC

Zcorp wrote:Sigh. We invade a country on a lie, and now we rape their resources and you are okay with just walking away? Take some responsibility for the actions of your country. While, blowing shit up and leaving other people to clean up the mess is certainly a wonderfully American thing to do, you should want and expect better from our behavior.

We brought destruction on a country that will take decades longer to recover. This is what we did in Afghanistan as well. Ditching destroyed countries, if we did the destroying or used them as a proxy to fight our wars, is not only a terrible thing to do to those other people, it also creates enemies of America that we will spend billions fighting. Don't you want to lead by example? Don't you want to try and get it right, don't you want to be worth emulating? Sentiments like this are really good reasons for the middle-east and various other places to hate us and want to blow us up.


What, exactly, should they have done after entering Iraq and Afghanistan that they didn't do? It's not like the US carpet bombed these countries, looked around, and said "KI'mOut". If you don't remember, these wars lasted a decade.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Zcorp » Thu May 08, 2014 7:21 pm UTC

This isn't the thread to discuss that in detail, but we should of left the country in such a state that they appreciated that we had been there. Granted this is much harder with Iraq, but at least we did spend a little bit in rebuilding that country.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby EMTP » Thu May 08, 2014 7:45 pm UTC

Zcorp wrote:Not really sure why I'm having to quote your own article back at you, but here...I guess. I'm not even making any argument, I'm just...actually reading what the article you linked said, while be amazed you could draw the conclusion you did from reading it.


I think unfortunately your reading is clouded by your bias. The Russian economy does indeed "hold strong economic . . . cards." But they are not stronger economically than the EU, not by a long shot. The EU economies are broadly based, including globally competitive manufacturing, services, R&D, and highly productive agriculture giving them a total GDP of $16.566 trillion in 2012. The Russian economy's GDP is $2 trillion, about 12% the size of the EU's, or about the same size as Canada's, and it's heavily weighted towards fossil fuel exports.

The Russian export economy, spoilered f large image:

Spoiler:
Image

Fun game: try to find a legible box on the graphic that isn't a raw material or natural resource.

Yes, sometimes my posts could be more succinct, which part did you not understand? The only point I made, in the part you quoted, relevant to you or the discussion is that one of Ukraine's major exports is fuel.


Couldn't make head or tail of the whole paragraph. Why do we care that Ukraine exports fuel?
Sigh. We invade a country on a lie, and now we rape their resources and you are okay with just walking away?


Feel free to show anywhere I said I am "okay with just walking away." In fact, I said nothing of the kind. I said that, strategically, we were able to walk away, because there are thousands of air-line miles and two oceans between us and them, in contradistinction to stirring up trouble in Ukraine, which shares a large and porous border with Russia.
Take some responsibility for the actions of your country. While, blowing shit up and leaving other people to clean up the mess is certainly a wonderfully American thing to do, you should want and expect better from our behavior.


You are in a fantasy world now that bears no relationship to anything I said, or, indeed, the matter at hand. If you're suggesting that we can't look at the objective differences between the Iraq War and the Ukraine conflict because we should be too busy rending our clothes and beating our breasts to challenge stupid comparisons -- I don't see how that would help matters.

Also, we did not "rape their resources." We might have if we thought we could get away with it, but we didn't, in point of fact.

We brought destruction on a country that will take decades longer to recover. This is what we did in Afghanistan as well. Ditching destroyed countries, if we did the destroying or used them as a proxy to fight our wars, is not only a terrible thing to do to those other people, it also creates enemies of America that we will spend billions fighting. Don't you want to lead by example? Don't you want to try and get it right, don't you want to be worth emulating? Sentiments like this are really good reasons for the middle-east and various other places to hate us and want to blow us up.


Again, no one advocated "ditching destroyed countries," and whether further troops in Iraq or Afganistan, or sending those deeply corrupt governments even more money, would be helpful is completely off topic and irrelevant to the matter at hand. Really, your outrage here serves no purpose. I don't think you're going to successfully implicate me as a closet supporter of a war I just called immoral, wasteful, destructive and stupid. Even as a polemic, that doesn't work.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Zcorp » Thu May 08, 2014 8:46 pm UTC

EMTP wrote:I think unfortunately your reading is clouded by your bias.

Yeah, damn my bias for...What is it you even think my stance is? Cause I've expressed no opinion what so ever about this situation. Please enlighten me to my bias.

But they are not stronger economically than the EU, not by a long shot. The EU economies are broadly based, including globally competitive manufacturing, services, R&D, and highly productive agriculture giving them a total GDP of $16.566 trillion in 2012. The Russian economy's GDP is $2 trillion, about 12% the size of the EU's, or about the same size as Canada's, and it's heavily weighted towards fossil fuel exports.

Take note that not once I have stated that it is. I have only stated that the article you linked does. Despite that, using GDP to measure strength or health of an economy is something that only someone who doesn't understand economics would do, it alone is no where close to sufficient to understand health (unless you want to argue that America has the healthiest economy in the world). Neither this article nor your links to GDP, which duh, provide me sufficient data to have an opinion on the matter.

But here let me quote part your article for you again, I'll try to make it even easier for you to read this time.
Russia’s public finances are also much healthier than those of many of the countries against which it is pitted over Ukraine. The budget deficit was 1.3% of GDP last year, whereas it stood at 3.3% for the EU. Government debt amounted to a mere 13% of GDP, compared with 87% in the EU.

Russia’s public finances are also much healthier than those of many of the countries against which it is pitted over Ukraine. The budget deficit was 1.3% of GDP last year, whereas it stood at 3.3% for the EU.

Russia’s public finances are also much healthier than those of many of the countries against which it is pitted over Ukraine.

much healthier than those of many of the countries

much healthier


Sigh. We invade a country on a lie, and now we rape their resources and you are okay with just walking away?


Feel free to show anywhere I said I am "okay with just walking away." In fact, I said nothing of the kind. I said that, strategically, we were able to walk away, because there are thousands of air-line miles and two oceans between us and them, in contradistinction to stirring up trouble in Ukraine, which shares a large and porous border with Russia.

You said "Making a mess of Iraq was an awful, unforgivable thing to do, but beyond the direct military costs, the expenses caring for veterans, and a big heap of our credibility, we could basically leave Iraq and be done with it to a great extent."

I assumed by 'we could' you perceived it as a valid option, if thats not true, my mistake.

However, let me dissuade you of the notion that the physical distance between the actual land of the US and the middle east is sufficient. Here are just a few of the more successful attacks carried out on the US. Distance certainly has kept us safe, the result of this attacks politically as been pretty trivial too, yay distance!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Cole_bombing
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_11,_2001_attacks
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camp_Chapman_attack

And while this might be surprising to you, it isn't all about us.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7_July_200 ... n_bombings
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmed_Shah ... assination
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Mombasa_attacks

How many more would you like? and this is just Al-Qaeda.


Also, we did not "rape their resources." We might have if we thought we could get away with it, but we didn't, in point of fact.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/featur ... 71641.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/17/busin ... d=all&_r=0
http://www.businessinsider.com/china-is ... oil-2013-6
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ ... ty-economy

Our rich are getting richer off of their oil, while their country is still recovering from us blowing them up. You object to me using the word rape, but I think it illustrates the reality quite nicely. Someone with more power took something from them, without their consent, and is profiting quite nicely, at their expense, while doing so.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Vahir » Thu May 08, 2014 10:03 pm UTC

You know, at this point we're arguing over semantics rather than anything substantial. Let's get back on track.

The rebels decide to go ahead with the referendum against Putin's wishes: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27320806

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby EMTP » Thu May 08, 2014 10:15 pm UTC

Vahir wrote:You know, at this point we're arguing over semantics rather than anything substantial. Let's get back on track.

The rebels decide to go ahead with the referendum against Putin's wishes: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27320806


Certainly illustrates one of the problems with fomenting civil war in your own back yard, doesn't it? Violent extremists are, almost by definition, difficult to control.

Now, what happens if they lose the referendum (as polls suggest they will, if the vote is fair)? Do the insurgents escalate the violence, and if they do do the Russian special forces continue to aid them? It's easy to see how Putin could get drawn in to a full-scale invasion, one little step at a time.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Zcorp » Thu May 08, 2014 10:25 pm UTC

EMTP wrote:
Vahir wrote:You know, at this point we're arguing over semantics rather than anything substantial. Let's get back on track.

The rebels decide to go ahead with the referendum against Putin's wishes: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27320806


Certainly illustrates one of the problems with fomenting civil war in your own back yard, doesn't it? Violent extremists are, almost by definition, difficult to control.

Now, what happens if they lose the referendum (as polls suggest they will, if the vote is fair)? Do the insurgents escalate the violence, and if they do do the Russian special forces continue to aid them? It's easy to see how Putin could get drawn in to a full-scale invasion, one little step at a time.

Except for everything that was just said except 'rape' which again is the most apt word for what has happened. Someone provides citations and makes it as simple for people to read and you want to move on and dismiss it as semantics. Whatever if you can't accept being wrong and just want to move on without learning thats on you guys. Probably want to actually read things in the future though, especially things you link, else you continue to look foolish.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Vahir » Thu May 08, 2014 10:41 pm UTC

EMTP wrote:
Vahir wrote:You know, at this point we're arguing over semantics rather than anything substantial. Let's get back on track.

The rebels decide to go ahead with the referendum against Putin's wishes: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27320806


Certainly illustrates one of the problems with fomenting civil war in your own back yard, doesn't it? Violent extremists are, almost by definition, difficult to control.

Now, what happens if they lose the referendum (as polls suggest they will, if the vote is fair)? Do the insurgents escalate the violence, and if they do do the Russian special forces continue to aid them? It's easy to see how Putin could get drawn in to a full-scale invasion, one little step at a time.


I don't think Putin will be too keen on helping the rebels. He has what he wants already (A safe port in the black sea), and already has the ire of the world. He might give covert aid to rebels, but I doubt he'd get drawn into the conflict.

Zcorp wrote:
EMTP wrote:
Vahir wrote:You know, at this point we're arguing over semantics rather than anything substantial. Let's get back on track.

The rebels decide to go ahead with the referendum against Putin's wishes: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27320806


Certainly illustrates one of the problems with fomenting civil war in your own back yard, doesn't it? Violent extremists are, almost by definition, difficult to control.

Now, what happens if they lose the referendum (as polls suggest they will, if the vote is fair)? Do the insurgents escalate the violence, and if they do do the Russian special forces continue to aid them? It's easy to see how Putin could get drawn in to a full-scale invasion, one little step at a time.

Except for everything that was just said except 'rape' which again is the most apt word for what has happened. Someone provides citations and makes it as simple for people to read and you want to move on and dismiss it as semantics. Whatever if you can't accept being wrong and just want to move on without learning thats on you guys. Probably want to actually read things in the future though, especially things you link, else you continue to look foolish.


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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Zcorp » Thu May 08, 2014 10:44 pm UTC

Vahir wrote:"Aha! You want to advance the discussion and are therefore acknowledging that you are defeated! I have the last word, therefore I r winnar!"

You don't want to advance the discussion, you want to ignore all parts in which you are wrong. I just hope it isn't so you can continue to live in a world where America is a good and awesome and the Russians are evil and terrible. Thats a sad world, and one that only lives in the heads of apathetic and ignorant Americans.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Vahir » Thu May 08, 2014 10:45 pm UTC

Zcorp wrote:
Vahir wrote:"Aha! You want to advance the discussion and are therefore acknowledging that you are defeated! I have the last word, therefore I r winnar!"

You don't want to advance the discussion, you want to ignore all parts in which you are wrong. I just hope it isn't so you can continue to live in a world where America is a good and awesome and the Russians are evil and terrible. Thats a sad world, and one that only lives in your heads.


Image

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby sardia » Fri May 09, 2014 1:55 am UTC

Zcorp wrote:
Vahir wrote:"Aha! You want to advance the discussion and are therefore acknowledging that you are defeated! I have the last word, therefore I r winnar!"

You don't want to advance the discussion, you want to ignore all parts in which you are wrong. I just hope it isn't so you can continue to live in a world where America is a good and awesome and the Russians are evil and terrible. Thats a sad world, and one that only lives in the heads of apathetic and ignorant Americans.

You aren't very well read yourself, so I caution you against throwing stones.

Vahir,
Yay, one of the points I brought up became relevant again. So how much influence and assets does Putin/Russia have in Eastern Ukraine when he calls for a pullback? You know, if he's actually signaling deescalation. I guess for symbols and signals, it's the thought that counts.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby addams » Fri May 09, 2014 4:19 am UTC

bigglesworth wrote:I still think that Putin is pushing East Ukraine half-heartedly to keep it going, to make leaving it part of Ukraine look like a concession and prevent Crimea from being on the table.

This way of writing and speaking about the Personality of an Execuitve is uncomfortable to me.

I know you need to do it.
It is a bad fucking habit.

You must have picked it up at home.

What are you doing?
The Cult of Personality.

It's a kind of bowling for the less athletic of us.
Set Them Up!! Knock Them Down! Repeat.

Is it impossible to believe a human being with intelligence and depth must make difficult decisions?
You are playing Risk with no Risk to you. Mr. Putin may not think it is a game. He may be an adult.

I think the game of you Getting Into The Head of an Evil Genus is a little over the top or under the board.
What would you want? If the well being of a nation was your responsibility?

I'd want a Meeting!
Who could carry such a burden, alone?

If we are going to play, Celebrity Statesman Gossip then play it Correctly!
I am not good at this game and I need to follow simple rules, at first.

One from the US.
One from Russia.

Putin is the Russian Guy.
McCain is the US Guy.

Who wants what?
McCain is Tough on Crime.
Putin is Tough of Crimea?

Now; You do one.
There must be another Russian Guy.
They have tens of people.

Who will we learn about, today?

On a slightly more serious note;
How frustrating is that Job?

The Job of being a World Leader.
How hard is that?

Is it true; The Russians have now, a situation that is similar to when we had George H?
Their head guy was head of their CIA before he became their chief executive.
George H was head of our CIA before he became our chief executive.

It is not much of a similarity.
It is something. Is it not?

How horrible are the Big Boyz being to one another?
No job is too big when shared. Unless your co-workers Suck.

How awful would it be to hear what I think I hear the Americans saying?
What do I hear? The same thing you hear.

American interests are of Prime Importance everywhere in The World.

No Secret is Too Secret for us.
We take All the Secrets and use them in the fucking Dark!

To back American Interests means we back JackAsses unquestionably?
That does not seem correct to me.

I care what happens in the Ukraine.
It is a far off exotic place with exotic people.

They have been behaving themselves badly.
A few hundred people have given them a Bad Reputation very quickly.

Is it time to underscore our responsibility to deal more kindly with one another?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=923jxZY2NPI
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Some of us see The Gutter.
Some of us see The Stars.
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Those that do not Know; Don't tell them.
They do terrible things to people that Tell Them.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Zamfir » Fri May 09, 2014 5:49 am UTC


Zcorp, your repeated accusations of stupidity are not helping anything. Quit the personal attacks, or take a break from the thread

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby EMTP » Fri May 09, 2014 7:34 pm UTC

The Economist reads Putin's call for a delay in the seperatist referendum as a sign he has achieved what he wanted to for now, and takes a look at how Putin is selling it at home:
“The purpose of an information war is not to persuade someone of something, but to get people engaged in warfare,” says Gregory Asmolov, a researcher at the London School of Economics. It intensifies hatred and solidifies support for the regime. As Boris Nemtsov, a veteran liberal politician, wrote in his blog, “I can’t remember such a level of general hatred in Moscow—not after the August 1991 coup and not after Yeltsin’s stand-off with parliament in 1993. Aggression is stoked by television…The Kremlin is cultivating and rewarding the lowest instincts in people, provoking hatred and fighting.” Russia’s information war reflects how Mr Putin’s regime depends on controlling the media and eliminating political competition.

Having seized control over the main television channels at the start of his presidency in 2000, he is now cracking down on the internet, until recently relatively free. On May 5th Mr Putin, who earlier called the internet a CIA project, signed a new law requiring popular bloggers and commentators with more than 3,000 followers to register as media outlets. Earlier, the Kremlin shut or took control of several independent websites, and barred a popular blog by Alexei Navalny, an opposition politician who is under house arrest, facing a long jail sentence on bogus charges.


His aggression in Ukraine is very popular in Russia, according to the polls. The economy is shrinking (down both in the first quarter of this year, and expected to shrink in the second quarter as well), so jingoism is a helpful distraction.

I am not as inclined to regard Putin as a political chessplayer, using Eastern Ukraine as a cover for Crimea, and using aggression in Ukraine generally to buck up his poll numbers, realizing its strategic emptiness (although both are certainly possible.) To me, he seems mostly to be reacting to events and not doing a very smart cost/benefit analysis. He's stirring up forces he may not be able to control on his own doorstep, and in exchange for a militarily* and economically worthless bit of land, he has alarmed all of his neighbors and encouraged his primary economic partners to see him as a threat to the peace of Europe. But, on the other hand, perhaps he is just infatuated with calling a little more land Russian, or perhaps the bump in his own poll numbers trumps everything else (he would certainly not be the first leader, autocrat or democrat, to suffer from that disease). Hard to know.

---------------------
* Crimea has military uses, but annexation of Crimea does not serve them because Russia already had troops and bases there, secured by treaty, which no one was going to remove.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby CorruptUser » Fri May 09, 2014 7:48 pm UTC

Maybe Putin got caught up in all his propaganda and is losing it? I mean, this is a guy who decided to re-enact Fly Away Home because he could (raised a bunch if orphaned geese and taught them to fly south).

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby addams » Sun May 11, 2014 1:47 pm UTC

CorruptUser wrote:Maybe Putin got caught up in all his propaganda and is losing it? I mean, this is a guy who decided to re-enact Fly Away Home because he could (raised a bunch if orphaned geese and taught them to fly south).

Did he really do that?
That's, sort of, cool.

Remember when the US president and Vice were OutDoors Curious?
George W. was a brush clearing secret service foreman
and Cheney was a big ole' Duck Hunter.

Everyone needs a Hobby.
Putin raised a clutch of Geese?

(shrug)
It could happen;
I suppose.

I'll be darned.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/09/06 ... in-flight/

Not Geese; Crane.
Practicing leadership?
The flight proved to be a test of Putin's leadership skills. Only one crane followed Putin on his first flight, which he attributed to high winds that caused the hang glider to travel faster than usual, the RIA Novosti news agency reported. On the second flight, five birds followed Putin, but after a few circles only two had stuck with him for the full 15-minute flight.


Gosh. That is, sort of, charming.
What else does he do when his nation is at Peace?

So funny in some ways.
Spoilered for Stupid and Off Topic.

Spoiler:
Some Milatary people are called Dogs.
Not because they are Dogs the way Middle Eastern people say it.

But, because they act individually and as a group the way Dogs act.
Easy bunch of people to lead. Extremely social and responsive.
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Some of us see The Gutter.
Some of us see The Stars.
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Those that do not Know; Don't tell them.
They do terrible things to people that Tell Them.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby MarkSmash » Mon May 12, 2014 4:10 pm UTC

What I wonder about the whole Ukraine situation is how much planning did Putin put into planning the whole annexation of Crimea. I mean, when I plan a fairly complicated activity, I usually need 2-3 months before to get things organized. Were there any warning signs, like military exercises etc., that might have tipped the EU/USA off that this was going to occur?

I mean, it's either a security lapse or the annexation happened with the tacit consent of the USA/EU.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby bigglesworth » Mon May 12, 2014 6:09 pm UTC

I think it's more the fact that the US/EU weren't 'in the game' with regards to Ukraine so to speak, until a year or two ago. If it had been one of the Baltic states it would need their tacit consent, but not Ukraine.

It was completely part of Russia's sphere of influence until the recent wave of expansion of European/US-backed influence tried to absorb it.
Generation Y. I don't remember the First Gulf War, but do remember floppy disks.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby EMTP » Mon May 12, 2014 7:21 pm UTC

MarkSmash wrote:What I wonder about the whole Ukraine situation is how much planning did Putin put into planning the whole annexation of Crimea. I mean, when I plan a fairly complicated activity, I usually need 2-3 months before to get things organized. Were there any warning signs, like military exercises etc., that might have tipped the EU/USA off that this was going to occur?

I mean, it's either a security lapse or the annexation happened with the tacit consent of the USA/EU.


I think you're overestimating the efficiency of our faceless overlords. Remember that plane that went down that no one can locate?

This action by Putin made and makes no sense. He already had military bases in the Crimea. It's economically worthless and totally dependent on Ukraine for water, gas, power, etc. It's a lot harder to predict people's actions when they behave irrationally.
"Reasonable – that is, human – men will always be capable of compromise, but men who have dehumanized themselves by becoming the blind worshipers of an idea or an ideal are fanatics whose devotion to abstractions makes them the enemies of life."
-- Alan Watts, "The Way of Zen"

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby nitePhyyre » Mon May 12, 2014 7:47 pm UTC

EMTP wrote:It's a lot harder to predict people's actions when they behave irrationally.
Which is everyone all the time. :evil:
sourmìlk wrote:Monopolies are not when a single company controls the market for a single product.

You don't become great by trying to be great. You become great by wanting to do something, and then doing it so hard you become great in the process.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon May 12, 2014 7:53 pm UTC

EMTP wrote:
MarkSmash wrote:What I wonder about the whole Ukraine situation is how much planning did Putin put into planning the whole annexation of Crimea. I mean, when I plan a fairly complicated activity, I usually need 2-3 months before to get things organized. Were there any warning signs, like military exercises etc., that might have tipped the EU/USA off that this was going to occur?

I mean, it's either a security lapse or the annexation happened with the tacit consent of the USA/EU.


I think you're overestimating the efficiency of our faceless overlords. Remember that plane that went down that no one can locate?

This action by Putin made and makes no sense. He already had military bases in the Crimea. It's economically worthless and totally dependent on Ukraine for water, gas, power, etc. It's a lot harder to predict people's actions when they behave irrationally.


No, it made sense strategically. It just isn't a GOOD action from any sort of moral, etc perspective. Putin frequently frames things as security vs freedom. Obviously, in this framing, freedom is usually described as more akin to chaos. Obviously, he's the one pushing for a "stronger" government, a "stronger" Russia, and so on. "Strength", in these terms, usually comes down to willingness to sue power. This makes him look strong, internally. It distracts from domestic issues. It lets him portray Ukraine/western influence as falling to chaos and being saved by Russia. In ideological terms, it's fairly straightforward from an authoritiarian perspective.

Sitting back, letting Ukraine rebel, go democratic, ally with the west, and probably experience a significant improvement as a result would send something of the opposite message from what he needs.

CorruptUser wrote:Maybe Putin got caught up in all his propaganda and is losing it? I mean, this is a guy who decided to re-enact Fly Away Home because he could (raised a bunch if orphaned geese and taught them to fly south).


*shrug* He mixes personal power with positional power. This is very effective. It's not a craziness thing, it's an orchastrated exercise to promote an image of him being extremely capable. I don't think he's crazy at all...he just happens to have a particular image of Russian greatness that he is pursuing fairly effectively.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby addams » Mon May 12, 2014 9:32 pm UTC

I don't think he's crazy at all...he just happens to have a particular image of Russian greatness that he is pursuing fairly effectively.

ok. I suppose that is fair.
I suppose he could be waxing poetic about the Greatness of America.
But; That is not his Job.

Besides; He might really believe that Russia has Greatness.
Some Americans believe that America has Greatness.

It is nice to like ones own home.
It is nice to be able to praise the homes of others.

What does that have to do with the Ukraine?
I don't know. What does that have to do with the Ukraine?

Who thinks the Ukraine is Great?
Why the heck are Americans so fascinated with The Ukraine and Russia's Mr. Putin?

Me?
It keeps coming up in the Forum.

We see more to their Supreme Leader than we do our Local Government Officials.
We know more about him. We see him on the TV. We read and gossip about him.

What about our own?
Well... In person, I heard a group of men discussing Lynching my Congressman.
I understand why our locals government officials are not having Get Together's with us.

A Staged Photo Op. Yes.
Anything more. No.
Life is, just, an exchange of electrons; It is up to us to give it meaning.

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Some of us see The Gutter.
Some of us see The Stars.
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Those that do not Know; Don't tell them.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby EMTP » Tue May 13, 2014 5:51 am UTC

"Reasonable – that is, human – men will always be capable of compromise, but men who have dehumanized themselves by becoming the blind worshipers of an idea or an ideal are fanatics whose devotion to abstractions makes them the enemies of life."
-- Alan Watts, "The Way of Zen"

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby engr » Wed May 14, 2014 1:02 am UTC

Some reading for the "it's not in Western media, so it's Russian propaganda" folks.

Huffington Post: The Neo-Nazi Question in Ukraine

Michael Hughes
Foreign Policy Analyst


The Neo-Nazi Question in Ukraine


The Obama administration has vehemently denied charges that Ukraine's nascent regime is stock full of neo-fascists despite clear evidence suggesting otherwise. Such categorical repudiations lend credence to the notion the U.S. facilitated the anti-Russian cabal's rise to power as part of a broader strategy to draw Ukraine into the West's sphere of influence. Even more disturbing are apologists, from the American left and right, who seem willing accomplices in this obfuscation of reality, when just a cursory glance at the profiles of Ukraine's new leaders should give pause to the most zealous of Russophobes.

In a State Department "fact sheet" released last week the U.S. accused Putin of lying about the Ukrainian government being under the sway of extremist elements. The report stated that right wing ultranationalist groups "are not represented in the Rada (Ukraine's parliament)," and that "there is no indication the government would pursue discriminatory policies."

It isn't too surprising that conservative outlets like FOX News would downplay Russian allegations but the so-called "liberal" press has also contributed to the American disinformation campaign. Celestine Bohlen from The New York Times considers harsh epithets, like the word "neo-Nazi," which Putin has hurled at the demonstrators in Kiev as part of a Russian propaganda effort to tarnish Ukraine's revolutionary struggle against authoritarianism.


And so on.

A liberal newspaper publishes an article which is not completely Russophobic? The end of the world must be near.

Ultra-left Salon joins; then The Guardian joins in; no doubt, they were paid by Russians to write stuff like this:

Washington's role in Ukraine, and its backing for the regime's neo-Nazis, has huge implications for the rest of the world


Wait, what's that? BBC claims the new Ukrainian government is tied to Nazis? Daamn. Wait, this is on Youtube. Never mind.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. Gilbert K. Chesterton

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby sardia » Wed May 14, 2014 1:41 am UTC

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/m ... s-movement
So if a newspaper has one article describing Ukraine as not a fascist coup, and then an editorial claiming that it is...Does that mean the journalists at the Guardian have no idea what they're talking about? Or, just maybe, you're full of shit Engr. Where are you getting all this neonazi fearmongering from? It's one thing to be cautious of Russian propaganda (stating Ukraine is full of nazis, so you should crush them now) which in turn stokes nationalist factions. This could turn an imagined fear(of fascists killing Russians) into an all too real one. But it hasn't yet, and you have no proof, just youtube videos. I can't imagine how long you've been waiting for some mainstream brand to air some of the nazis everywhere commentary.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby EMTP » Wed May 14, 2014 2:11 am UTC

Kind of a moot point, isn't it, given that we're going to have general elections in Ukraine in less than two weeks, after which time it won't matter what the beliefs of the people in the provisional government were?

Putin of course complained it was far too soon for elections, but you know neo-Nazis -- always passionate about the democratic process.

When was the last time there was a free election in Russia, BTW? Anyone keeping track of that?

The sad thing about this line of propaganda is that Russia has to look seventy years into the past to invoke the memories of the last time they were on the right side of history.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Derek » Wed May 14, 2014 2:23 am UTC

EMTP wrote:Putin of course complained it was far too soon for elections, but you know neo-Nazis -- always passionate about the democratic process.

It's too soon for elections in Ukraine, but it wasn't too soon for the referendum in Crimea.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby engr » Wed May 14, 2014 2:53 am UTC

sardia wrote: Or, just maybe, you're full of shit Engr

First you claim Russian propaganda is lies and there is no evidence.
When you are presented with evidence, you claim that these are "just pictures" and "just youtube videos", and that you want to see some non-Russian journalists support it.
When you are presented with non-Russian journalists who support these claims, it's time for liberals' most convincing argument - "you're full of shit".
And now you're claiming that if "Russian propaganda" continues to argue that fascists are killing Russians, well, fascists must just start killing Russians. So in the end, when the evidence becomes strong enough that even you cannot deny it (although you managed to ignore how fascists burned to death more than 30 unarmed people in Odessa - both anti-nationalist protesters and regular clerks in the Trade Unions House), all you'll have to do is to say that it was Russians' fault: they blamed fascists with being, well, fascists, so fascists understandably started being fascists. Brilliant.


sardia wrote:I can't imagine how long you've been waiting for some mainstream brand to air some of the nazis everywhere commentary.


All it took was a three-word Google query and a look on the very first page of the results. Some of these articles were published before we even started this argument, but you are all too willing to ignore anything that does not fit neatly into your worldview. If you weren't so reluctant to look for facts - all facts, not just the ones that support your view point - you would see that what you call mainstream media was calling Ukrainian nationalists on their shit way before the coup, but after the fascist cou... ahem... democratic revolution the tone changed, and these people became freedom fighters.

Again, as I said, you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink. You and EMT-P are just as brainwashed as those Russians who believe all Ukrainians are Nazis and Ukraine (and US, while we're at it) must be nuked. (I had the misfortune of arguing with your Russian counterparts at Russian fora; it was about as productive and civil as this argument).


EMTP wrote:When was the last time there was a free election in Russia, BTW? Anyone keeping track of that?


Obviously, never, since any elections in which Russians (or Ukrainians in Crimea or Donetsk) vote for something or somebody you don't like must be rigged.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. Gilbert K. Chesterton

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby sardia » Wed May 14, 2014 4:14 am UTC

Have you noticed how often you say the word fascists and neonazi? That's why I think you're full of shit. There are plenty of bad people in the world, there's no need to attribute them all to fascists.

If you really do think yourself above the propaganda on "both sides", then you should realize how much emotional baggage comes with the term fascists. But you don't. You casually threw out that fascists burned alive, (way to be objective here) a bunch of innocent people. Why are the pro-russian people who died innocent, but the pro-ukrainian people who burned them(claimed by you, with no corroborating evidence) fascists? What percent of the country do you think believes in Fascism?

Assume I'm being a sheeple, and you aren't a complete idiot... how bad of a nazi problem are you claiming? Say from a scale of 1 to Hitler, how many kilonazis are in Ukraine? We got what? A deadly fire? A party who got more votes than they deserve? How will it affect the civil war with Russia?

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby addams » Wed May 14, 2014 5:03 am UTC

Zcorp wrote:
EMTP wrote:
Making a mess of Iraq was an awful, unforgivable thing to do, but beyond the direct military costs, the expenses caring for veterans, and a big heap of our credibility, we could basically leave Iraq and be done with it to a great extent.

Sigh. We invade a country on a lie, and now we rape their resources and you are okay with just walking away? Take some responsibility for the actions of your country. While, blowing shit up and leaving other people to clean up the mess is certainly a wonderfully American thing to do, you should want and expect better from our behavior.

We brought destruction on a country that will take decades longer to recover. This is what we did in Afghanistan as well. Ditching destroyed countries, if we did the destroying or used them as a proxy to fight our wars, is not only a terrible thing to do to those other people, it also creates enemies of America that we will spend billions fighting. Don't you want to lead by example? Don't you want to try and get it right, don't you want to be worth emulating? Sentiments like this are really good reasons for the middle-east and various other places to hate us and want to blow us up.



This part of your post breaks my heart.
It rings so true. I don't have to like it.

This may be a good place to begin.
Or; End.

You asked:
Don't you want to try and get it right, don't you want to be worth emulating?

That is a darned good question.

It is not one of those Self Evident questions.
Redundant? Is that the word?

Do we want The World to Follow our Example?
I don't.

Fifteen years of War have....
I finish that sentence in several ways.

How do you finish that sentence?
The Ending of War is a lot of Work.

I am willing to accuse my people, The Americans,
Of being Too Lazy for Peace.

War and The Making of War is a Young Man's Game?
Then ya' Go Home and Retire to a RV in Paradise?

Is it Time to begin writing about what we Really Think?
Is it Time to begin to write about how we Feel about that?

Proud Americans All?
I am Embarrassed.

Why the fuck does Embarrassment not Kill?
Some things, just, don't make sense.

Maybe, Embarrassment can kill a Nation.
If we are Embarrassed enough; Will The US stop existing?

What do you think?
We could change our name and slink away.

Good Idea?
What do you think?
Life is, just, an exchange of electrons; It is up to us to give it meaning.

We are all in The Gutter.
Some of us see The Gutter.
Some of us see The Stars.
by mr. Oscar Wilde.

Those that want to Know; Know.
Those that do not Know; Don't tell them.
They do terrible things to people that Tell Them.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Zcorp » Wed May 14, 2014 7:24 am UTC

addams wrote:I am Embarrassed.

Why the fuck does Embarrassment not Kill?
Some things, just, don't make sense.

Maybe, Embarrassment can kill a Nation.
If we are Embarrassed enough; Will The US stop existing?

What do you think?
We could change our name and slink away.

Most of us aren't embarrassed. Most of us don't know enough to be embarrassed. Many of us who know and understand some of it, but are embarrassed about only part of it. Some, take EMTP here, still care more about the few thousand American casualties than the millions of lives destroyed in Iraq, or the likely future costs to America in the upcoming decades from that war, and I mean in American lives due to ditching. Most Americans don't care about those few thousand American casualties more than gay marriage (many of which don't think they should have that equality). I fear we are a couple generations away, if we had a better education system than we have, of being a nation that understands it should be embarrassed. To bad we don't care about education either.

I think I want to move to Norway, or a few other places.

sardia wrote:Have you noticed how often you say the word fascists and neonazi? That's why I think you're full of shit. There are plenty of bad people in the world, there's no need to attribute them all to fascists.

The frequency of the word use is not the first thing you should be looking at to decide if you think he is full of shit. Focus on the accuracy of the words, he is uses them frequently to pound home the point, a rhetorical tactic (which obviously sometimes backfires) that is also seen in the Eich thread. There the words are bigot and homophobe. That you react first to the frequency of use and not to the accuracy of use is...a problem.

He also doesn't attribute fascist and neo-nazi to all 'bad' people in the world, just some people in this case - or at least doesn't in this post, currently to lazy to go check the rest of his posts- just like every one of his links do, most of them in the headline.

If the frequency of words you don't like pisses you off enough not to think about what is going on, that sucks. Especially if what is going on is accurately described by those words. Its sad the the culture of silence in America is such that it is a greater crime to talk about other people doing 'bad' things than to do them.

Assume I'm being a sheeple, and you aren't a complete idiot... how bad of a nazi problem are you claiming? Say from a scale of 1 to Hitler, how many kilonazis are in Ukraine? We got what? A deadly fire? A party who got more votes than they deserve? How will it affect the civil war with Russia?

He just gave you 4 links, are you going to follow them?

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby EMTP » Wed May 14, 2014 12:39 pm UTC

sardia wrote:Have you noticed how often you say the word fascists and neonazi? That's why I think you're full of shit. There are plenty of bad people in the world, there's no need to attribute them all to fascists.

If you really do think yourself above the propaganda on "both sides", then you should realize how much emotional baggage comes with the term fascists. But you don't. You casually threw out that fascists burned alive, (way to be objective here) a bunch of innocent people. Why are the pro-russian people who died innocent, but the pro-ukrainian people who burned them(claimed by you, with no corroborating evidence) fascists? What percent of the country do you think believes in Fascism?

Assume I'm being a sheeple, and you aren't a complete idiot... how bad of a nazi problem are you claiming? Say from a scale of 1 to Hitler, how many kilonazis are in Ukraine? We got what? A deadly fire? A party who got more votes than they deserve? How will it affect the civil war with Russia?


The Economist took a sober look at this:

So who is in control? Pro-government and Russian media use the presence of far-right groups as a way of discrediting the protestors. The claims are exaggerated, but not wholly unfounded. Oleh Tyahnibok's Svoboda [Freedom] party, originally the Social-National party of Ukraine) is the only one of significant size in terms of membership. It has ties to the British National Party and French National Front. It scored 10% in the 2012 election and polls around 5-7% lately. Nowadays its leaders present a moderate image. But Svoboda activists have been criticised for bullying tactics in establishing control over occupied buildings, and critics also highlight ties to the neo-Nazi C14/Sich group.

Most of the organised units of the Maidan Samooborona (self-defence) forces, though, are under the leadership of Andriy Parubiy, a nationalist-leaning MP from Arseniy Yatseniuk's Batkivshchyna (Fatherland) party. These are the volunteers guarding the barricades, wearing protective clothing and carrying makeshift weapons. Most have no affiliation to far-right groups.

Some of Samooborona's more fearsome units, though, belong to the Pravyy Sektor (Right Sector), which formed in November as a coalition of ultra-nationalist groups. It has an estimated 500-700 members, and a good deal of influence, particularly because of the role it played in the violence that started on 19 January. Yet anarchist groups were also at the forefront of those clashes and further back from the front line you could find a cross-section of Ukrainian society, with protesters who have no connection whatsoever to radical circles cheering the fighters on.

Not all the radicals are far-right. Spilna Sprava, a civic movement that drew condemnation and violent retribution in January after occupying three government ministries, is led by Oleksandr Danilyuk, a longtime activist on other issues such as tax. His and other groups have been the subject of speculation that they are Moscow-backed provocateurs. No proof has been offered and the allegations are denied.

A range of civil society groups, NGOs and activists are nowhere near the far-right. Often though, they are just as exposed to violence and harassment as Samooborona units are. The popular Automaidan, which organises motorcade-style protests, has seen one of its leaders kidnapped and beaten, countless cars torched, and one activist killed. Yet car-owning Ukrainians keep signing up.


For an example of how to discredit yourself in one sentence, we have this offering:

Obviously, never, since any elections in which Russians (or Ukrainians in Crimea or Donetsk) vote for something or somebody you don't like must be rigged.


Can we just agree that all of your complaints and whining about Western propaganda is, like the rest of your information, exactly as credible as your claim that the "elections" in Crimea and eastern Ukraine were free and fair?
"Reasonable – that is, human – men will always be capable of compromise, but men who have dehumanized themselves by becoming the blind worshipers of an idea or an ideal are fanatics whose devotion to abstractions makes them the enemies of life."
-- Alan Watts, "The Way of Zen"

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Vahir » Thu May 15, 2014 11:59 pm UTC

Zcorp wrote:The frequency of the word use is not the first thing you should be looking at to decide if you think he is full of shit. Focus on the accuracy of the words, he is uses them frequently to pound home the point, a rhetorical tactic (which obviously sometimes backfires) that is also seen in the Eich thread. There the words are bigot and homophobe. That you react first to the frequency of use and not to the accuracy of use is...a problem.

He also doesn't attribute fascist and neo-nazi to all 'bad' people in the world, just some people in this case - or at least doesn't in this post, currently to lazy to go check the rest of his posts- just like every one of his links do, most of them in the headline.

If the frequency of words you don't like pisses you off enough not to think about what is going on, that sucks. Especially if what is going on is accurately described by those words. Its sad the the culture of silence in America is such that it is a greater crime to talk about other people doing 'bad' things than to do them.


So are you of the opinion that the current interim government in Ukraine is fascist?

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby EMTP » Fri May 16, 2014 2:16 am UTC

Seems like the normal people in eastern Ukraine have had about enough of the Quislings:

MARIUPOL, Ukraine — Thousands of steelworkers fanned out on Thursday through the city of Mariupol, establishing control over the streets and banishing the pro-Kremlin militants who until recently had seemed to be consolidating their grip on power, dealing a setback to Russia and possibly reversing the momentum in eastern Ukraine.

By late Thursday, miners and steelworkers had deployed in at least five cities, including the regional capital, Donetsk. They had not, however, become the dominant force there that they were in Mariupol, the region’s second-largest city and the site last week of a bloody confrontation between Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian militants.


It would seem that the inevitable victory of Russia was not explained to the easterners . . .
The workers, who were wearing only their protective clothing and hard hats, said they were “outside politics” and were just trying to establish order. Faced with waves of steelworkers joined by the police, the pro-Russian protesters melted away, along with signs of the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic and its representatives. Backhoes and dump trucks from the steelworkers’ factory dismantled the barricades that separatists had erected.


Good news.
"Reasonable – that is, human – men will always be capable of compromise, but men who have dehumanized themselves by becoming the blind worshipers of an idea or an ideal are fanatics whose devotion to abstractions makes them the enemies of life."
-- Alan Watts, "The Way of Zen"

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Carlington » Fri May 16, 2014 2:53 am UTC

Well, given Russia's history when it comes to factory workers taking control of the situation, I'm not surprised that they backed off like that... :lol:
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

Eebster the Great: What specifically is moving faster than light in these examples?
doogly: Hands waving furiously.

Please use he/him/his pronouns when referring to me.


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