Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Vahir » Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:32 pm UTC

Image

Tanks? What tanks? Those aren't tanks, they're just tractors.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby EMTP » Sat Jul 05, 2014 4:09 pm UTC

The Ukrainian government has recaptured Slovyansk, a key city in Eastern Ukraine which has been in rebel hands for weeks.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Mambrino » Sun Jul 06, 2014 2:50 pm UTC


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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby sardia » Tue Jul 15, 2014 10:41 pm UTC

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/16/world ... .html?_r=0
Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of cross border direct attacks.

Well, that's a worrying change. I thought Putin was trying to back down from a direct war.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Crissa » Wed Jul 16, 2014 9:44 am UTC

There were reports of Russian troops firing upon rebels as well. This may be troubling, but it's the obvious outcome of fighting - it doesn't respect lines on paper.

-Crissa

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Khelevaster » Wed Jul 16, 2014 3:45 pm UTC

Crissa wrote:There were reports of Russian troops firing upon rebels as well. This may be troubling, but it's the obvious outcome of fighting - it doesn't respect lines on paper.

-Crissa


Demonstratively firing on a group of militants trying to return to Russia is one thing. Massive artillery bombardment and tank attacks are on a totally different scale.

sardia wrote:http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/16/world/europe/ukraine-russia-tensions-rise-over-attacks.html?_r=0
Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of cross border direct attacks.

Well, that's a worrying change. I thought Putin was trying to back down from a direct war.


He can't. If he does the whole "rebellion" ceases to exist fairly quickly.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Mutex » Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:19 am UTC

Oh dear.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28345039

Russia 'shot down Ukraine jet'

Breaking news

Ukraine accuses Russia of shooting down one of its military aircraft over Ukrainian territory

More to follow.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby PolakoVoador » Thu Jul 17, 2014 2:05 pm UTC

This is following a terrible direction. And what with the world with its eyes focused in the more recent turn of events in Gaza, this whole situation in Ukraine is getting a pass. Let's hope things don't escalate even more

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby sardia » Thu Jul 17, 2014 2:23 pm UTC

It can possibly stay at a low simmer so long as either side can deny they fired on the other. So if one side refuses to admit it then it can keep going. Sorta. Still a dangerous game to play

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby engr » Fri Jul 18, 2014 3:30 am UTC

Russia invited OSCE observers to Russia/Ukraine border after Russian border checkpoints and local villages were repeatedly shelled from Ukrainian territory during the last few days. There was one civilian fatality and multiple injuries.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. Gilbert K. Chesterton

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby sardia » Sat Jul 26, 2014 12:41 am UTC

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/26/world ... -says.html
Russia starts shelling Ukraine.

I have a nagging feeling the Europeans are right, and we should give Russia a way out. And by way out, I mean not start World War III. Russia responds to every setback by seeming to double down. Very concerning behavior.
Last edited by sardia on Sat Jul 26, 2014 7:05 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby bigglesworth » Sat Jul 26, 2014 2:12 am UTC

Russia had a way out, when Putin took over Crimea. It could have all ended there.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby sardia » Sat Jul 26, 2014 7:06 am UTC

That's the same thing we said when he started the civil war in Eastern Ukraine. He could have stopped supporting the rebels, and the Europeans would welcome his money back with open arms.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby BlackSails » Sun Jul 27, 2014 7:42 pm UTC

sardia wrote:
I have a nagging feeling the Europeans are right, and we should give Russia a way out. And by way out, I mean not start World War III. Russia responds to every setback by seeming to double down. Very concerning behavior.


Pretty sure people said the same thing about the sudetenland.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby setzer777 » Sun Jul 27, 2014 11:31 pm UTC

BlackSails wrote:
sardia wrote:
I have a nagging feeling the Europeans are right, and we should give Russia a way out. And by way out, I mean not start World War III. Russia responds to every setback by seeming to double down. Very concerning behavior.


Pretty sure people said the same thing about the sudetenland.


Point being? That we should start World War III?
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby engr » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:39 am UTC

sardia wrote:Russia starts shelling Ukraine.


Wow, that must really suck when someone is constantly shelling your territory and killing your civilians, doesn't it?
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. Gilbert K. Chesterton

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Khelevaster » Mon Jul 28, 2014 7:51 am UTC

setzer777 wrote:
BlackSails wrote:
sardia wrote:
I have a nagging feeling the Europeans are right, and we should give Russia a way out. And by way out, I mean not start World War III. Russia responds to every setback by seeming to double down. Very concerning behavior.


Pretty sure people said the same thing about the sudetenland.


Point being? That we should start World War III?


Did the allies start World War 2?
The "let it slide" policy makes WW3 closer, if anything.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby leady » Mon Jul 28, 2014 9:00 am UTC

I think for all of historys lambasting of Chamberlain, in practice the policy of appeasement had zero effect on the likelihood of WW2 and if anything allowed the UK and France to attempt to re-arm in the delay.

I'm still wondering what general instablility in Ukraine gets Russia in either the short or long term.

Also I'm very suprised that the media has scaremongered to death the fact that there are several large nuke plants in the east of Ukraine...

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby setzer777 » Mon Jul 28, 2014 12:20 pm UTC

Khelevaster wrote:
setzer777 wrote:
BlackSails wrote:
sardia wrote:
I have a nagging feeling the Europeans are right, and we should give Russia a way out. And by way out, I mean not start World War III. Russia responds to every setback by seeming to double down. Very concerning behavior.


Pretty sure people said the same thing about the sudetenland.


Point being? That we should start World War III?


Did the allies start World War 2?
The "let it slide" policy makes WW3 closer, if anything.


If I'm not mistaken, the situation is very different in terms of comparative military strength. Does Russia even remotely have a conventional military capable of invading and occupying large swaths of Europe?
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Mutex » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:41 pm UTC

Even if they did, they wouldn't invade an EU or NATO country, for the same reason EU and NATO wouldn't invade them. Nukes.

Unless one party decided the threat of nuclear war was so unthinkable, the other party wouldn't use their nukes even if they were being invaded.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby bigglesworth » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:59 pm UTC

Yeah, Russia might be able to get some sort of Eurasian Union that has a border with Poland, Iran and Afghanistan, but it won't be able to push any further than that.

It'd be nice to have a pro-EU government in Ukraine. But it's not required for the safety of the rest of the EU.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby setzer777 » Mon Jul 28, 2014 2:04 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:Unless one party decided the threat of nuclear war was so unthinkable, the other party wouldn't use their nukes even if they were being invaded.


Yeah, I meant even if they were convinced of that, there would still be the issue of overcoming NATO forces. Unless they thought that the threat of nuclear war was so unthinkable, the other party wouldn't even use conventional defense against an invasion, for fear of Russia retaliating with nukes. It's hard to believe they would be that delusional though.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby bigglesworth » Mon Jul 28, 2014 2:09 pm UTC

I've even read things arguing the other way - that defensive use of tactical nuclear weapons wouldn't be enough to trigger strategic nuclear weapon usage.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Mutex » Mon Jul 28, 2014 2:16 pm UTC

That's the thing. Even if one of your major cities gets destroyed, would that be enough to think to yourself "well, may as well turn the surface of the planet into glass"?

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby addams » Mon Jul 28, 2014 2:31 pm UTC

bigglesworth wrote:Yeah, Russia might be able to get some sort of Eurasian Union that has a border with Poland, Iran and Afghanistan, but it won't be able to push any further than that.

It'd be nice to have a pro-EU government in Ukraine. But it's not required for the safety of the rest of the EU.

Safety?
Safe from What?

The Fashion Exchange?
Do they eat too much fish?

What??
Have you seen some of the Messes the Western Europeans have made.

Yes.
I know.

They do a Fabulous Job of cleaning up.
So do the Eastern Europeans.

They are All Europeans.
They are used to Diversity.

Who Speaks for the Russians?
Who Speaks for the Europeans?

How did it get to be a concern of the US?
The Russians and The Europeans and The Chinese go into a Room.

When they come out, we have our Marching Orders.
Or; The US comes out of a Secret Meeting with its self and Declares, "The War On Terror is ON!"

International Politics, done on the Internet?
And; The IP addresses of the US house of representatives have been banned from Wikipedia for Vandalism.

Who do you believe?

Even more off topic:
Spoiler:
I like the Internet.
It is Weird.

I do not like it because it is Weird.
xkcd has a Comic that explained One man's epiphany about Internet: Weird.

I like it because it is almost interactive.
Life is, just, an exchange of electrons; It is up to us to give it meaning.

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Some of us see The Gutter.
Some of us see The Stars.
by mr. Oscar Wilde.

Those that want to Know; Know.
Those that do not Know; Don't tell them.
They do terrible things to people that Tell Them.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby bigglesworth » Mon Jul 28, 2014 2:35 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:That's the thing. Even if one of your major cities gets destroyed, would that be enough to think to yourself "well, may as well turn the surface of the planet into glass"?
Absolutely... I would. MAD, otherwise there's no point having strategic nuclear weapons.

I was talking about theatre weapons.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby leady » Mon Jul 28, 2014 3:17 pm UTC

Russia would have a rough time of it in a war against the EU alone, even without US help

The EU + Turkey has the production capacity about 10x times that of Russia and about 4x the manpower...

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Jul 28, 2014 3:21 pm UTC

setzer777 wrote:
Khelevaster wrote:Did the allies start World War 2?
The "let it slide" policy makes WW3 closer, if anything.


If I'm not mistaken, the situation is very different in terms of comparative military strength. Does Russia even remotely have a conventional military capable of invading and occupying large swaths of Europe?


Yes...but they cannot take on US on anything like equal terms, which does support your point. It's not really a world war so much as a regional conflict. Serious, to be sure, and with significant implications, but likely not a world war.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby sardia » Mon Jul 28, 2014 5:03 pm UTC

leady wrote:Russia would have a rough time of it in a war against the EU alone, even without US help

The EU + Turkey has the production capacity about 10x times that of Russia and about 4x the manpower...

Only a fool would engage a superior force in a fair fight. Just imagine Crimea repeated on the other countries not named Germany France and Britain. The key is to play up instability so that it stalls any pro eu sentiments. Take Ukraine as a example, anticorruption and debt problems haven't gone away. If Russia can drag this out long enough, it can cripple Ukraine for decades.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Crissa » Mon Jul 28, 2014 6:03 pm UTC

How would OSCE observers be able to tell where artillery shells were coming from?

It seems to me that the Ukrainians would have to be in separatist-held territory to fire at the border. Somewhat of a dubious claim.

-Crissa

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby setzer777 » Mon Jul 28, 2014 8:05 pm UTC

bigglesworth wrote:
Mutex wrote:That's the thing. Even if one of your major cities gets destroyed, would that be enough to think to yourself "well, may as well turn the surface of the planet into glass"?
Absolutely... I would. MAD, otherwise there's no point having strategic nuclear weapons.

I was talking about theatre weapons.


Of course there's not much point in actually obliterating human civilization, just in making others *think* you would if attacked. Once you've actually been nuked the only non-nihilistic use of strategic nukes is already been nullified. Proving that the threat wasn't empty doesn't actually accomplish anything constructive.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Jul 28, 2014 9:57 pm UTC

setzer777 wrote:
bigglesworth wrote:
Mutex wrote:That's the thing. Even if one of your major cities gets destroyed, would that be enough to think to yourself "well, may as well turn the surface of the planet into glass"?
Absolutely... I would. MAD, otherwise there's no point having strategic nuclear weapons.

I was talking about theatre weapons.


Of course there's not much point in actually obliterating human civilization, just in making others *think* you would if attacked. Once you've actually been nuked the only non-nihilistic use of strategic nukes is already been nullified. Proving that the threat wasn't empty doesn't actually accomplish anything constructive.


But if you'll make that choice, then...there is no deterrent.

So it is in your interest to make such an action as likely as possible. Ideally, automatic, because then it is perfectly credible.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby setzer777 » Mon Jul 28, 2014 10:23 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:
setzer777 wrote:
bigglesworth wrote:
Mutex wrote:That's the thing. Even if one of your major cities gets destroyed, would that be enough to think to yourself "well, may as well turn the surface of the planet into glass"?
Absolutely... I would. MAD, otherwise there's no point having strategic nuclear weapons.

I was talking about theatre weapons.


Of course there's not much point in actually obliterating human civilization, just in making others *think* you would if attacked. Once you've actually been nuked the only non-nihilistic use of strategic nukes is already been nullified. Proving that the threat wasn't empty doesn't actually accomplish anything constructive.


But if you'll make that choice, then...there is no deterrent.

So it is in your interest to make such an action as likely as possible. Ideally, automatic, because then it is perfectly credible.


True, and that's certainly an argument for automation. But in the context of a human having to make that choice, there's no good reason to actually do so. All that matters is the perception that you would do so, but once you're in a position where deterrence has failed, there's no advantage to proving the past threat credible. It's too late to matter.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby morriswalters » Mon Jul 28, 2014 10:32 pm UTC

The danger of MAD is when an aggressor makes a determination of the degree of force they can use. If they miscalculate you can have a war by accident. This could simply be a test of resolve on the part of NATO to see what is possible.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Jul 28, 2014 10:44 pm UTC

setzer777 wrote:True, and that's certainly an argument for automation. But in the context of a human having to make that choice, there's no good reason to actually do so. All that matters is the perception that you would do so, but once you're in a position where deterrence has failed, there's no advantage to proving the past threat credible. It's too late to matter.


This gets into game theory, and the issue of a single game vs a repeated game. In a single game, there is no penalty to not doing what you say you would do. In a repetitive game, there is.

I dare say that, even MAD, in practice, is better modeled by a repetitive game in general. You can postulate a decision point where it abruptly becomes the final game in a repetitive match, but this is not actually at the point of the first missile launched, since one missile will not end the world, nuclear or not.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby sardia » Mon Jul 28, 2014 10:48 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:
setzer777 wrote:True, and that's certainly an argument for automation. But in the context of a human having to make that choice, there's no good reason to actually do so. All that matters is the perception that you would do so, but once you're in a position where deterrence has failed, there's no advantage to proving the past threat credible. It's too late to matter.


This gets into game theory, and the issue of a single game vs a repeated game. In a single game, there is no penalty to not doing what you say you would do. In a repetitive game, there is.

I dare say that, even MAD, in practice, is better modeled by a repetitive game in general. You can postulate a decision point where it abruptly becomes the final game in a repetitive match, but this is not actually at the point of the first missile launched, since one missile will not end the world, nuclear or not.

I forget, is the response to a nuclear strike a nuclear strike in kind? Or is that a movies only thing? So if a division of men get nuked, then we should nuke a division of their men, not a city.

Edit: For the guy who thinks I'm advocating appeasement, I counter that there isn't enough support for a military strike. If you have no willpower to use a military strike, you might as well not have it. Until the West changes their popular opinion, the diplomats have no choice but to bargain with economic tools. Even those are limited by the major Europeans powers who are unwilling to sacrifice their economies for a bunch of corrupt wannabee kleptocrats, aka Ukrainians.

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby setzer777 » Mon Jul 28, 2014 11:18 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:I dare say that, even MAD, in practice, is better modeled by a repetitive game in general. You can postulate a decision point where it abruptly becomes the final game in a repetitive match, but this is not actually at the point of the first missile launched, since one missile will not end the world, nuclear or not.


That's a good point.

To those drawing WWII comparisons, I would say that it's also better to assume that total war between two nuclear powers will result in nuclear exchange (quite possibly escalating to global devastation). Therefore any military response needs to be extremely cautious and measured.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby leady » Tue Jul 29, 2014 12:51 pm UTC

I think with coincidental timing it bears far more resemblance to the build up to WW1 - i.e. a potential accidental clusterf**k rather than an idealogically driven war substituting a fractured EU for Austria hungry, Ukraine for the Balkans and Russia for errr Russia

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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby EMTP » Wed Jul 30, 2014 3:46 am UTC

New sanctions today, and Russia on the wrong end of a $50 billion civil ruling.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis [New Title]

Postby johnny_7713 » Wed Jul 30, 2014 7:25 am UTC

leady wrote:I think with coincidental timing it bears far more resemblance to the build up to WW1 - i.e. a potential accidental clusterf**k rather than an idealogically driven war substituting a fractured EU for Austria hungry, Ukraine for the Balkans and Russia for errr Russia


I'd say that WWI was very much ideologically driven, just that most of the countries involved on either side happened to share the same ideology: i.e. that it was important to sort out once and for all what the correct ranking of the Great Powers of Europe was, and that war was the correct way to go about this. WWI was not an accidental clusterf**k, it was a war waiting for an excuse to happen.


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