trpmb6 wrote:It probably means nothing? If, in reality, Clinton was up by 5 points, you wouldn't expect to see every single pollster return a result of Clinton+5. You would expect to see a normal distribution of results centred around Clinton+5. You would expect to see that even if every pollster had the ability to take a true random sample of respondents and extract completely accurate information from them. In the universe we live in, polling is hard and some pollsters lean one way or the other, which means you get a few more weird outliers than you would expect if God was an actuary.
Correct, but when numerous models are showing a higher than usual turnout of democrats, some even higher than Obama's 2008 and 2012 turnout, you start to realize those polls are shifting the normal distribution to the left. Maybe these pollsters see something in the electorate I don't; it is their job afterall.. I just design airplanes. But I don't see the same level of enthusiasm for Clinton from my friends as I saw with Obama. Conversely, I see a much higher level of enthusiasm from my friends who support trump than I've ever seen for other candidates. And that's where I think the rallies show this.
You're looking at enthusiasm in support -for- Trump or Clinton. This year isn't really one where any candidate get support -for- their position, but people "voting for" one candidate or the other are actually voting -against- the other. Even Trump supports are hard pressed to point to any Trump policies they'd be better off under, they're mostly driven by a desire to keep Hillary out of office. Mostly the same can be said for Hillary, she's not really an inspirational candidate (definitely not the way Obama was), so a significant number of her votes will not be so much support for her candidacy, but an effort to prevent a Trumpster Fire in the Oval Office.