Tyndmyr wrote:Trump won't have the power, and is too combative to win people over...
If elected, he will have demonstrated that he can
win people over
get people to submit by being combative
It does work fairly often, if he's in a situation where people need to deal with him. I would argue, however, that this is not a universally good strategy, and when people do not need to work with you, a hostile approach is not helpful. Congress is perfectly content to not play nice with the president, if it serves their ends. Now, it's likely that simple partisanship will result in a less hostile relationship between the two than you'd see under Clinton, but I'd be shocked if Trump didn't have the worst relationship with a same-party congress ever.
Thesh wrote:Okay, then Trump will likely cause a global economic depression during his year in office.
NAFTA's really not that huge of a deal for us. I mean, we have prior treaties that give us similar policies with regards to Canada, and anyways, Trump doesn't seem concerned about Canadians. I mean, it'd hurt, in terms of higher prices, etc, but the impact of higher tariffs with Mexico probably isn't sufficient to kick the US into a depression. It'd suck proportionately a great deal more for Mexico, so for them, yeah. But probably not the rest of the globe.
Thesh wrote:Basically, due to the amount of early voting, I'm guessing by women, if this is accurate then Trump is finished.
It's a sign, but it's not necessarily conclusive. Early voting may not be representative of the general election. Early voters skewing democrat is typical, even. I mean, that's a good turnout, but it's <4m out of 20m people, so even outta likely voters, the majority have not yet voted. This is still fairly error prone.
Clinton's position continues to deteriorate, her population expected vote is down 1% and third parties are down to 4.7%. Trump is at 45%.
Good thing her margin was so high to begin with.
Welp, time to bet money on Trump winning. Not that this is a sure thing, but betting markets are undervaluing his odds, looks like.
1.6 unknown and 4.7 third party leaves a 6.3% margin that'll probably mostly split still. And the odds of Clinton getting the popular and Trump getting the Electoral just keep climbing. If that break goes a little for Trump on the general(and Johnson supporters do skew a touch republican), that outcome could become reasonably likely.
Of course, while it's fascinating from an election standpoint, the "Trump wins, but not by a majority" is probably worst case for the aftermath. The level of rage will be...high.